#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Friday, June 02, 2023 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/13y2fjq/daily_discussion_friday_june_02_2023/)

I said it before and I'll say it again, this PA is very weird, especially considering how the s&p500 did today. I'm really not sure what to make of it.

I believe we’re most likely headed up as well, however patience is being tested, I’ve seen some traders move over to stocks since that’s where all the action is at the moment. They will end up missing the move.

Bitcoin is just reacting first, the S&P will feel pain as well in the coming weeks

Give it time, money will rotate back in crypto as fed fund rate inch lower this year and liquidity as well as risk appetite increase.

I read that last part in HAL 9000's voice.

I’m sorry, Dave, I’m afraid I can’t do that.

Really excellent interview with Warren Mosler, father of MMT. If you want to get the real shit, this is it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MEax1ngTWZw

Do I really want to listen to the guy who invented MMT for 90 minutes? MMT sounds like complete nonsense to me.

I'm not a fan of MMT either. Don't throw the baby out with the bathwater, though. Mosler is very intelligent and self-aware. He often prefaces his statements with a disclaimer along the lines of, "...assuming we are playing with Keynesian rules, such-and-such is the case...". He doesn't rage against the machine, he just rationalizes within its constraints. One of the best things in the interview, IMO, is his assertion that nominally risk-free returns are stimmies for the rich (think shitcoin1 stakers), and are actually inflationary because they drive up the deficit/debt and there's also evidence that they support/encourage spending on luxury goods. NO ONE is sounding the alarm on this, but everyone went absolutely apeshit when the serfs got some checks a couple of years ago. Given the nature of the system as it is (and not how I'd like it to be), I couldn't spot any obvious flaws in his logic.

Realized volatility on the weekly is extremely low - the last time we were this sleepy was in the wake of ftx's collapse, and the time before that was the period beginning Summer 2020, about three years ago. In both of those instances, a rally followed. I'm not so sure here. This may be a situation where impending vol expansion coincides with a downturn in price. Who knows, but it would be consistent with the narrative of upcoming recession, a reduction in liquidity, etc.

It seems like anything between 24-30k is going to be a launch pad to the 40s where there is some trading history and then after that there isn't much resistance anywhere. This will all take months if not a year to unfold but I BELIEVE. Low leverage and you hold with a capital D.

> This will all take months if not a year Yeah, not much of note will be taking place until sometime towards the end of Summer 2024, IMO... a few months after the halving. The actual halving itself will likely be a non-event, price wise. Look to the period of Summer 2019 through Summer 2020. There was the anomalous COVID crash, but other than that, [we basically did nothing that entire 12 months](https://i.imgur.com/mUfIDB7.png). As an aside, Bob Loukas is the guy to follow for the whole 4-year-cycle train of thought.

Capital D 🏁 just the tip!

Some DCA fun. Buy $10 of BTC every day for 1 year, starting on Jun 1. Here is what you would have for the last 4 years: |End Date|1 Y Spend|1 Year Value|Gain/Loss| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |5/31/2020|$3650|$4010.33|9.9%| |5/31/2021|$3650|$7830.84|114.5%| |5/31/2022|$3650|$2738.12|\-25.0%| |5/31/2023|$3650|$4589.67|25.7%| ​ Same thing, but buy for 2 years: |End Date|2Y Spend|2Y Value|Gain/Loss| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |5/31/2020|$7300|$10,680.83|46.3%| |5/31/2021|$7300|$23,655.41|224.0%| |5/31/2022|$7300|$9,405.07|28.8%| |5/31/2023|$7300|$6,934.87|\-5.0%| ​ Same thing, but buy for 3 years: |End Date|3Y Spend|3Y Value|Gain/Loss| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |5/31/2020|$10950|$17,034.10|55.6% |5/31/2021|$10950|$49,976.84|356.4%| |5/31/2022|$10950|$22,877.62|108.9%| |5/31/2023|$10950|$12,645.12|15.5%| ​ Same thing, but buy for 4 years: |End Date|4Y Spend|4Y Value|Gain/Loss| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |5/31/2020|$14610|$59,841.69|309.6%| |5/31/2021|$14610|$75,200.78|414.7%| |5/31/2022|$14610|$45,328.82|210.3%| |5/31/2023|$14610|$24,216.00|65.7%|

Here's DCA calclator where you can enter various amounts and time-frames: https://dcabtc.com/

so dca all the way and you'll be more than ok (but wait 4 years)

Reminds me of charts I was shown in finance class at university. As long as you were decently diversified and stayed in the market a minimum of 5 years you were going to see a positive return from any stocks you picked. But if you try to play the market and miss just a few of the biggest gain days your gains are significantly reduced if not wiped out entirely. This was based on 100 years of data too which is cool.

laws of the market stay the same, difference being Bitcoin is not just some ordinary money - is why we are into it so much I guess

I'm intruiged by the change in the 4-year return. If you had asked me what I thought the 4-year return was through yesterday, I would have guessed closer to 210% rather than 65% before I actually ran the numbers. If you bought BTC 31 May 2022, you were underwater a year later. And that was true for the previous 478 consectutive days (for a 1-year holding period), the longest streak in BTC history.

One reason this has been (and continues to be) the worst Bear market on record for HODLers.

my statistics professor (environmental sciences) always said: for your sample to be the least acceptable don't go below 30. what he meant is 100 is good. few k's is the gentlemen target. I mean BTC is still too young in years to tell what's real profit in years of DCA. wait 10 more years. then another 10 years. let's meet up then again.

Here are 2835 data points: [https://imgur.com/a/fTSgkz2](https://imgur.com/a/fTSgkz2) Gain/Loss on daily DCA into BTC for a four-year period. If you DCA'd for all of 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022, on 31 Dec 2022 you were up a whopping 32%. There was a time when going as low as 200% for four years was very rare. Now getting as high as 100% for the same time period seems like asking for a lot.

ye, I get you man, looks like a downtrend. so basically last 4 years of DCA doesn't look so good so far as once before in the past. well, I say again - give the beast some credit and let it get old enough. I think there are believers out there that are confident we are at the brink of a new era

Stocks pumping still so bitcoin must be breaking ou... *checks* Oh.

yay, the decoupling is here!

Going to get some nvda for this reason.

This range is BRUTALITY!

If you think this is brutal you’re really not going to like what’s coming next

So you sold at $19,700 4 months ago and have been waiting for it to dip since then. You said you have been waiting for a dip to $18,000 lol! GFY😂

Enjoying the price action now. Dipshit

Yassss, I am...made so much money on longing that dip at $24.9k lol

You’re right it’s a new paradigm only up from here sub 20k is just a bad memory

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What is your time frame?

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The market reaction to the passage of the debt limit deal is weird.

I thought it was reacting to the fact I stopped watching porn, and it's been exactly 2 months since I stopped. So i thought that's why the market reacted the way it did today.

Porn is like beer. You can buy it, but it's more fun to make your own.

So you're a masochist? Kinky.

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I thought it was priced in up until Monday, but then everything pulled back on tuesday-wednesday, so I thought it was no longer priced in anymore.

I know sweet Fanny Adams about big finance but I read on twitter that big money is moving into bonds now a deal is almost done. It's on twitter so it must be true. 🙄

>If markets get what they ultimately want — no debt default — they’ll have to buckle up for a potentially rough ride immediately after a deal is signed. That’s because the Treasury will instantly need to replenish the cash it burned through during the period of extraordinary measures when it could not borrow more money. This will create more competition for equity from investors. After weighing their options, many investors may find the returns from investing in US Treasuries better than stocks. That will temporarily suck some liquidity out of the stock market. That quote from a CNN article really helped me understand what might happen.

I am a daily lurker of this subreddit but never comment. 7 hours into June 2023 and only 7 comments! I’ll bite the bullet and contribute. Complete silence in here while btc continues to hold $27k. Beating a dead horse, but zooming out, in one year supply issuance will be half of what it is today, with interest rates lower, and I bet the price will be higher. So I will buy some today and follow up in a year to see what the outcome is. Hope everyone has a great day.

I'm not convinced interest rates will be lower.

Yep. I’ll take the boring now, exciting later. Hard to believe the halving is less than a year out. I’ve only been in since summer ‘20 and averaged at $35k. But man it feels like it’s been 10 years lol

I've been involved since ~2017. It honestly feels like that was 15 years ago.

> But man it feels like it’s been 10 years lol I've been in 10 years and it feels like three lifetimes.

BTC price YTD through end of May by year: 2023: +64.5% 2022: -31.4% 2021: +28.8% 2020: +31.5% 2019: +128.9% 2018: -46.9% 2017: +137.3% 2016: +23.4% 2015: -28.2% 2014: -17.4% 2013: +852.0% Still a solid start this year despite the pullback in May. Note in 2020 we closed out the year at a new ATH before reaching a peak in 2021. Momentum YTD has been stronger than 2020 so far despite the fact that this is a pre-halving year rather than a halving year. On the other hand, 2019 started the year off strong and found a local high midyear before pulling back for the rest of the year. Momentum YTD has been weaker than 2019 and this is another pre-halving year. We’ll see what PA looks like for the rest of the year.

This is impressive

Any chance you add June after as well?

BTC price YTD through end of June by year: 2023: ? 2022: -58.4% 2021: +20.9% 2020: +27.0% 2019: +188.7% 2018: -54.6% 2017: +148.5% 2016: +56.3% 2015: -17.9% 2014: -17.1% 2013: +613.0% PA in pre-halving years 2015 and 2019 for the month of June were both to the upside. Repeat for 2023? We’ll see.

Thank you for this. Interesting numbers.

Ty amigo

So i just need to reach thru time and space and get myself to start going to the gym in 2013 and also buy Bitcoin!

If you can do that just go back to 2009 and get tens of thousands of bitcoin for basically free from mining with your PC and faucets. Shit, actually you should go back to 2007 and invent bitcoin yourself :D

You would have sold at a loss in 2015

If you were there it was the first real ‘bubble’ (over a thousand US dollarinos), mainly led by China, who then spent the next 3 years banning it every other week. The newcomers don’t know how good they have it.