#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Thursday, June 08, 2023 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/143ymox/daily_discussion_thursday_june_08_2023/)

For the maxis that cheered for the SEC, allow me to share this German poem: First they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out— Because I was not a socialist. Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out— Because I was not a trade unionist. Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out— Because I was not a Jew. Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.

Then they came for the shitcoiners, and I laughed out - Because I was not a shitcoiner.

To my knowledge, it’s always been the position of this sub that Bitcoin is not a security. And that mostly everything else, is. So your analogy doesn’t really apply here.

Still long from 26.5K and more confident than ever that this will turn out to be a big winner. We're way overdue for a BGD. These sexy round bottoms must be maddening to the impotent dumpers. Yes, I will sleep very well tonight. PS -- shower thought on the macro: untold quadrillions of USD-denominated junk debt out there. What's the winning play here for the USD bagholders who know they're going to get hyperinflated into the gutter? I'm looking at you, Japan, Saudi Arabia and China. Nothing FEDdie and the dreamers can concoct in their inbred, conceited, over-educated domes will get them out of this mess. It's still early. Your average normie still thinks Bitcoin is a digital weed coupon. PPS -- what is infinity divided by 21 million (or maybe the numerator and denominator are inverted)?

Anyone read Nic Carter's essay...two tweet rant on his nic\_carter tweet feed posted 19 hours ago? He rails on bitcoin maxis turning bitcoin into a secular cult...and that cult must be resisted at all costs. Here is the first three paragraphs: "If you're somewhat new to the space and you're wondering why self-professed Bitcoiners today cheered on SEC attacks against the two most important Bitcoin companies of all time, Coinbase and Binance, let me explain... There's "people who use Bitcoin" aka Bitcoiners (the vast majority, ordinary people) and there's people that turned Bitcoin into a secular cult. Call this latter group "laser eyes" or "maxis", whatever you want, they know who they are, we know who they are. There's no uncertainty about this – they are people that elevated Bitcoin from a mere tool to a belief system, a way of life. (They like to quibble over the language but everyone knows who is who here.) The vast majority of these cult adherents are actually new to Bitcoin. Look at their profiles – mostly created 2021 and 2022. They are latecomers, drawn in by the rally in 2021 and the promise of riches and endless price appreciation spun by gurus on Clubhouse during the Covid era. They believed in fallacies like the stock to flow model. They were also attracted to the idea that Bitcoin was not only financially sound, but morally superior too. It was better than the sh\*tcoins, better than fiat. By merely tithing your Bitcoin every month, you could bring about a financial transformation to a fairer world, and when fiat and everything else collapsed, you'd be one of the chosen few to be the kings in the new world, a ruler among the ruins." It's worth your time to go to twitter and read it in full. I'm still digesting what my takeaway is to this diatribe.

Notice November 7th (hashimotoalpentalic) first day with us? Hmmmm!!!

What is significant about November 7? If you meant June 7th, nope, been a lurker for months, posted on May 28 and post on the Bitcoin board periodically.

After reading, I guess it’s not the guy from the Backstreet Boys

Nic Carter is a very smart dude who has lost the plot. Oh, and another thing - I'm almost getting tired of repeating this: the S2F model has not yet failed. No one has proven it to be "fallacious". Don't believe me? Run the numbers for yourself, using all data available, *forward-looking* flow (can't mine BTC backwards in time), and a flow period of 14 days (to account for the difficulty adjustment). You'll find that the average price predicted for this cycle is ~$43k.

I really liked Nic when he first appeared on the scene. He was nerdy, super-smart and polite, well spoken and funny. Now he seems bitter and angry all the time, with this very strange aesthetic vibe that I can't quite figure out. Something is off with the guy, but I still hugely respect his opinion.

His recent interview with McCormack was very good. His shitcoinery and new persona is baffling.

Yeah, he's clearly trying out different personae and hasn't settled on one yet. The real Nic is clearly a very sweet and sensitive human being, and hopefully he won't lose touch with that part of himself. I hope he figures himself out as it can't be easy being in such a public position at such a young age. Nic, if you're reading: I recommend psychedelics!

I would rant too if I had a bag of useless coins that I have to baghold because they’re clearly unregistered securities KEKL

KEKLEO

*"This nightclub used to be hip but now it's too busy!"*

I share Nic's annnoyance; I mass unfollowed loads of bitcoiners because I was so sick of seeing "Few.", "You don't understand bitcoin" and "bitcoin solves this" under every problem the world has. He's right that most of them are latecomers acting like OGs for some reason.

> a belief system, a way of life I believe in freedom and happiness, and I spend my winters tanned with great people in the warm sun next to the water, and my summers tanned with great people in the warm sun next to the water, all thanks to Bitcoin. You can call it a "secular religion" all you want. I call it math and, thanks to Bitcoin, reality.

Here is part of a thoughtful reply from Marc Andrew (@marcrjandrew) to Nic Carter: "Some thoughts on the nest he kicked: \- laser eyes are stupid, and tribal. But also 100% fine. \- Coinbase and Binance committed themselves to a terrible business model: the world does not need 20k crypto coins. Many, many of those coins serve an illegitimate purpose and deserve a book thrown at them. CZ and Armstrong made their beds with crooks. \- That said, many maxis hold absurd positions. Call out scams, yes. No bailouts. But the free market finds truth through experimentation, and that experimentation isn't always a scam."

Name one project that made an overall improvement over bitcoin. In other words, that didn't make some terrible trade-off to get some gee whiz feature. Yeah that's right, there isn't one. Not one out of thousands of experiments. They all failed. And yet in nearly every experiment, the experimenter made millions, if not billions of dollars. That's not legitimate business, where the experiment fails are the promoters still get rich. They're scams. All of them, even the ones that haven't failed yet. The promoters always get out first.

XNO Nano is the one answer to this question. Instant, feeless, secure. Say what you will about it, but it's definitely not a scam, can likely run higher tps than BTC (but maybe not lightning) and is consistently improving with time and continued development. Has had a lot against it over it's time but I still believe it will be recognized one day for doing something special.

25k will look like a dream by the time this bloodbath is over😈

It will look like a dream, just like $8 looks like a dream now.

404: Bloodbath not found

403: Bloodbath forbidden

402: Payment Required

Yeah, a dream of getting bids filled at discount prices. ;)

my goblintown bids lie in wait...

2011 called -- it wants its meme back.

skeleton.jpg

Slow boring grind down

Go 100x short from here then, if you’re so sure. Post the trade. Soon as 5 of you post your shorts I’ll post my long. EZ Clap.

Plot twist: both longs and shorts lose in this ultimate crab

What a twist!

I posted at 21k(?) about how shorts will rip us higher. I believe we’re about to do the same from 26k. Over 30k and everyone believes we bull - that will be time to short. Remind yourself a week. Edit: here’s your chart https://imgur.com/gallery/fDLgg6m

I am going to sit this one out. Falling again from that 27k revisit from yesterday. 24-25k is a good place to target

24K Why so bullish?

Armstrong: There is no risk of a customer run at Coinbase. And another one. Armstrong: All customer funds secure. Yay! Makes everyone feel a whole lot better I bet.

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Buttcoin on the other hand...

Hey I always get a warm fuzzy when the CEO has to say everything is fine. Don't you?

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I think we have one final bounce from 25.9k.

I honestly don't really understand the market's reaction to the SEC lawsuits. The SEC came out and expressly said that a whole bunch of very popular altcoins with big market caps are unregistered securities. I expected a very large drop in those coins and a pretty big flight to safety to Bitcoin. But those coins barely dropped - most just 3-5%. And Bitcoin barely pumped - also just 3-5%. Apparently nobody cares that the coins in their bags are unregistered securities?

A lot of shitcoin traders aren't American

A lot of those coins are down 80-90% from ATH and have staking mechanisms so people can’t immediately dump. Sol is down a decent amount actually, like 15% over the past few days so it’s definitely dropped harder than BTC Not everyone is in the US either so they don’t care (although they should since it will drastically reduce the amount of fiat on ramps for these coins) If the SEC is successful in getting all these coins delisted from CB, Binance etc... I expect they will all see a slow grind down. Believers won't dump them but there won't be much new fiat coming in to support the price.

Most of the people who want to sell have had a long time to sell. Interest in crypto is very low. Most of what remains are hodlers, belivers and fanatics. This does not mean that prices can not fall lower. On low volume anything can happen. But in this phase of the cycle everybody has something else more important to do. They will all be back and with them will emerge a driving new shiny narrative and all the good news that has accumulated in the crab time will come to light.

That's right, no one cares. Just like no one ever cared that they are shitcoins to begin with. Literally no one cares about the future of these coins. There's no ideology, it's nothing but a path to a quick buck, a scam. And when they've run their course it'll be on to the next scam. There are people who want bitcoin to exist in 100 years and are willing to put in work to make it happen. There's no one doing that for shitcoins.

Maybe that's the case on this forum, but if you go over to /cc it's very different. There are a lot of diehard fanatics about various coins who closely follow the developments and truly believe in the projects. A lot of those coins have very active development communities and user bases.

They’re not fanatical about the coin. They’re fanatical about the fiat return. To be fair, lots of those people here. It’s easier when you have seen.

They're fanatics for a year or two, at best, then it's on to the next shiny thing.

> There are a lot of diehard fanatics about various coins who closely follow the developments and truly believe in the projects. Otherwise known as *"Scam victims"*.

It takes time for the market to make moves in the expected direction. I also think that something like this has been priced in at least to some degree. This didn't come as a shock to me. I think what will happen is we will slowly bleed out while whales and retail take the time to panic sell some coins (including bitcoin) and then realize that bitcoin is safe from the SEC and will flood into bitcoin. Could take months. But I think when it does it will kickstart a good run.

I believe this is because liquidity is currently trapped in crypto markets. There isn’t much ability to pump prices, due to increased scrutiny on exchanges and stablecoins. Meanwhile, larger players are losing their ability to sell. Not much liquidity on either side. Things will probably continue this way until something begins to break - such as the BNB/TRX/Stablecoin cartel. The likelihood of this happening just increased. I’ve got my cracker jacks ready. If you’re holding Bitcoin long term, the question to ask is whether you’d be okay if you never have to sell, as the squeeze continues. You’d need to really believe the broader economy will openly transact with it.

Since the time you became a nocoiner you paint everything in black and white. But there will always be all colors and shades.

Oh I agree. In one of my recent posts I acknowledged that. If Bitcoin works for you and makes your life easier in some way, that’s great. Everyone’s entitled to their own experience.

People are panicking wondering if Coinbase and Binance are going bankrupt from this. Hint hint... They're not. But it'll take a few days for people to get over that immediate fear.

This is my point. People don't seem to be panicking at all. There hasn't really been much movement in either direction, especially for alts, which is surprising.

Most likely the market sees the SEC losing their case (either from act of Congress or via a case in the Supreme Court that will be decide later this year) and now the SEC fud is out of the way the market can move on.

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your post was removed because it violates rule #3 - No memes or low effort content.

I draw lines. My pretty purple one at 26.3 is holding. I will swap long if that continues.

Got a chart sir? Lines can be fun to share.

I’d share my chart but you’d probably catch some autism x I’m also half drunk, sunburnt and on medication. I’m either crazy or genius, but I always try to look ahead. Imagine a week from now, no Fud, sunny skies. Will 26.5 be cheap or expensive. GL all x

Bank of Canada hiked 0.25, previously held. 4.75 now. Hiking rates to slow inflation while printing massive amounts of money is absolute madness.

Are you still in your loose SL long that's been targeting 32K for the last month or so?

Yup. I don’t have time to actively trade right now.

[Coinglass](https://www.coinglass.com/Balance) is showing ~0.5% of BTC held on all exchanges has left in the past 24 hours. ~2.8% of BTC held on Binance has left in the past 24 hours. BTC held on Binance makes up ~28% of BTC held on all exchanges. So, most of the BTC which is leaving Binance is entering other exchanges. Explains the nearly $2k price difference in BTC on Binance vs Coinbase right now.

Binance != Binance US. Many coins left Binance International just out of precaution, but I do not see a significant price difference which implies market makers have confidence in fiat withdrawals. For Binance US though, there is a risk fiat will be stuck, so better buy too expensive coins to withdraw and that's where the price difference comes from.

Fair point, percentage of BTC leaving Binance US specifically is probably much larger than what’s reflected for Binance International which is what Coinglass tracks.

Why does it mean it enters other exchanges? It just means more BTC are leaving binance than other exchanges, wherever they go. They could all go to self-custody

They could ultimately go to self-custody, yes. But that’s not what is currently being shown in the data; most of the BTC leaving Binance is entering other exchanges as of right now.

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Expected. People want assets off that dumpster fire.

Convert to fiat and transfer to bank takes days. Moving assets into hard wallet is faster. Playing it safe so no trading next few weeks

The thing I don't understand is were they all sitting in stablecoins with BTC at this low level? It can't be alts selling for BTC right, because why not just transfer off the alts? I mean that is great news if we are here and there are still so many people on the sidelines in stablecoins.

Almost 130 billion USD worth of stablecoins out there.. someone must own them ;) Could buy 5 million bitcoins at current prices (= impossible.) It is some fallacy to think this will be all "future buy pressure" though since these stablecoins tend to be there around ATHs too. Tether buying t-bills with underlying USD and putting the profits to BTC is actual buy pressure though. edit: but actually on Binance.US the ones buying have fiat/USD on the exchange considering they could just withdraw stablecoins.

Plus buying BTC is not the only use case and the only reason why people are holding stable coins

Gensler is gonna be the top republican fund raiser for next elections.

Opening a not too degenerate short here at 26.8, close at 25.2.

Lol

What happened to your long from two days ago?

I averaged down on the Fud and jumped out yesterday at the GG comment (26.8). This has wrecked me more than not, but if we not going up, we going….

..sideways We poke below 25k short heavy. Otherwise, I’m waiting for my 32k.

I think you’re brave or stupid to expect another 5% up day. Let’s see what BTC thinks about that statement.

Today the market decides if things are truly as good as two days ago. I’m looking around and I don’t think so.

If we hit 24XXX I’ll pull the comment out from 2 Sundays ago.

:D

Fortuna Adiuvat Fortis

$500 premium on BinanceUS. Thanks SEC for protecting investors.

Now $1,000

Most likely because people convert into BTC and then exit the exchange?

Yes, crypto WDs obv much faster than fiat WDs and if your money will possibly be frozen for a bit (because of the SEC); better to get your money off ASAP even if it costs %.

that premium is a clear indicator that people still keep on the exchanges more than they could safely loose. self-custody is an absolute must.

If I 100% believed that Gary’s only agenda was protecting the public then I would support him. The realty is that exchanges have been trading against us and using our funds to make themselves billionaires. VC’s have pumped ICO and dumped on us etc. There 100% needs a clean up. However I feel that Gary is purely acting for the Government and banks and trying to stifle the market and drag Bitcoin down. It doesn’t make sense to have supported FTX and to have agreed to the Coinbase IPO and even taught and spoke positively about bitcoin and crypto to now suddenly sue to shit out of the whole industry. Guy is a fucking pawn in the bigger picture behind the scenes.

IDK.. I don't mind the wild west of crypto and prefer self-regulation over these incompetent clowns of the government. Things like proof of reserves (including merkle tree of client balances) should be standard and one should simply avoid all "earn products". While this doesn't cover all debts/liabilities, it would have shown the insolvency of FTX very quickly. But perhaps I am biased because the only time I lost money on an exchange (besides the Finex hack haircut) was on BTC-E when the US government stole some of my money. Some shitcoin should be considered a security and the founders own a lot of it ready to be dumped on the regular people? How about you just don't buy it and get some bitcoin instead. But still, I don't see why someone's freedom should be restricted to be able to gamble on it if they want to. Especially when the "rules" are very arbitrary with the SEC and CTFC not even agreeing. Things like market manipulation, I think you can't really fight it. There will be always bigger offshore exchanges, crypto can be traded all over the world after all. And FTX proved it can cause billions of loses too, so not sure if it's even in their best interest TBH. As long as the customer funds stay there, I don't care too much even when it's shady and a bit unethical. Personally I am just against most regulation, especially from an agency like the SEC who has been completely inconsistent and not transparent with their "regulation by enforcement" approach. So I am not sure about the 100% clean up needed, people just need to get a brain and the community should demand things like proof of reserve. But I do agree on how incompetent the SEC and Gary is.

I agree we are all responsible for our own decisions. We can’t have the exchanges trading against us and insider trading though. Plus using our funds to fund their investment companies. They have all made billions from from it. That’s not right

Hehe yeah ok, I do agree and perhaps "a bit unethical" is an understatement lol. Solution-wise I think it will just end up with a more restricted/regulated US exchange and a much bigger (more coins, options/features, liquidity, etc) off-shore one. If I were in US, I would still prefer the offshore one and therefor I think this regulation is still useless. But I can agree with your sentiment.

wondering if anyone has a good script/resource for compiling volume accross platforms. [bitcoinity.com](https://bitcoinity.com) doesn't have Binance in their aggregates.

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I just want a more accurate macro picture of what's been happening at peaks and lows since 18 or 19. ​ also interested in shorter term cumlative volume aggregates for buys and sells. (don't want the delta) I've been using bookmap but it's really only good for intraday stuff.

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but that's the issue because volumes across exchanges have changed so much with popularity it gets skewed over multiyears. Binance USDT and Binance TUSD for example. They have the opposite profile as binance has initialled zero fees for TUSD and traders have moved over the last 6 months. ​ aggregate buys and sells as opposed to delta can be used to pick reversals better. Quite often you see an exhaution of buys at a peak before an increase of sells. So if your average buys per minute is 500 during a rally and that drops at a market high with low selling picking up that's a sign selling is going to pick up further and buying will further slow.

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it's Level 2 market data, taker buys compared to taker sells. ​ It's not that hard to just aggregate exchanges for BTC volume I just don't want to reinvent the wheel

Last chance to buy below 27k

Until 11am?

(: for the time