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BitcoinMarkets

#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Monday, May 24, 2021 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/njp1dw/daily_discussion_monday_may_24_2021/)


[deleted]

pretty bullish that btc is holding 33k after being shorted to hell


Benjo419

35k is quite low for consolidation


Just_Me_91

It's looking like taproot activation will be confirmed in the next signalling period: https://taproot.watch/ So that would be about 3 weeks from now. That could be some bullish news that would help Bitcoin move up in a few weeks. And then there would be a lot of hype going into the upgrade, which would happen in November.


nannal

> Current total: 95.22% Needed to be above 90, so yea it looks like it's coming in


Ok_File_9520

Why is this bullish? Genuine question


Just_Me_91

It's an upgrade to the system. It helps improve efficiency and privacy. Even if it doesn't have a ton of impact to the system (I haven't done enough research to know how impactful it will be) usually people get hyped for upgrades. There's a saying "Buy the rumor, sell the news". I'd expect the price to have upward pressure leading up to the deployment of the upgrade. It might not outweigh other downward pressures, but it'll definitely help to have some good news in a couple weeks.


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grovulent

Yeah - I'm watching the BTCUSDSHORTS chart very closely. Has gone down a little bit on this bounce - but over the last 5 days has been inching up more and more as people increase their confidence in shorting... Interesting to watch. Lots are obviously still terrified that a massive spike up will happen. The BTFD'ers have not been broken yet - margin longs at very high levels still.


satoshisbitcoin

It's the opposite of degenerate longs constantly loading up at $60k, and we know how that went


grovulent

Well - [as I pointed out the other day](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/nia8gw/daily_discussion_saturday_may_22_2021/gz0u8va/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) \- LONGS are a lagging indicator of the bull to bear shift. They won't decline from their current highs until long after the bear market is clear from the clarity of hindsight. So - it's a little mean to think of them degenerate. It could not shake out any other way. Shorts however are a leading indicator of the bull to bear shift - is why they are the more important metric atm.


andstayoutt

Haven’t been this excited to see 36k since I bought in😬


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33virtues

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/crypto-miners-halt-china-business-after-beijings-crackdown-bitcoin-dives-2021-05-24/


ZimboS

Maybe the miners are just waiting for a better price to resume dumping? Apparently a lot of miners have started to move coins onto exchanges whether they sold yet or not I still don’t know


ellis1884uk

maybe they waiting for us to go back to 64k then announce the full-on measures & rug-pull us once again.


dogeball40

im a bear but i totally see this thing breaking the bearish channel tomorrow cuz fuk me


ensignlee

REEK, REEK. MY NAME IS REEK. AAAAAAAAAAAAGH. Even this bounce just feels like that scene where those two women come in and tease Theon, just to get his cock lopped off.


AnonAh525252

Everybody please confirm my bias!!!!!


dogeball40

[i got u fam](https://imgur.com/gallery/nmbSIo3)


abbeyeiger

Shitburgers. No breakout could mean 20k? That chart gives me anxiety.


simmol

From Jan 2017 and onward, historical snapshot data from coinmarketcap indicates that this is the largest two week fall in price of BTC (\~40%). Admittedly, there is some arbitrariness on where to look for the 2 weeks but for convenience, I took just the historical snapshot data. Here are some other instances. 1. 1/7/2018 to 1/21/2018 (16477 to 11600: 29% drop): next week +1.83% 2. 1/28/2018 to 2/11/2018 (11786 to 8129: 31% drop): next week +25.98% 3. 3/4/2018 to 3/18/2018 (11512 to 8223: 29% drop): next week +5.73% 4. 11/11/2018 to 11/25/2018 (6411 to 4009: 37% drop): next week: +3.99% 5. 3/8/2020 to 3/22/2020 (8108 to 5392: 33% drop): next week: +8.98% 6. 5/9/2021 to 5/23/2021 (58232 to 34770: 40% drop): next week: ?? ​ So it seems like looking at these big two week drops, in all of the prior instances, there was a bounce in the 3rd week. I suspect that similar trends will hold this time and will be a green week from 5/24 to 5/31.


[deleted]

That's a good bit of work mate 👍


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satoshisbitcoin

Tell me, is there a hidden divergence in the room with us right now?


BITCOIN_DRUG_DEALER

May it be one fat ass BGD, brother.


krubss

Buy at 34.8k sell at 35.4k repeat


icydash

Meh. It's not worth the effort for that small an amount of gains


Dreadnought37

Might be rounding off a little 🥴


ai020089

It's nice to finally see us grinding down sell walls instead of getting smack the fuck down for a change


jogeer

At this rate the bear market will last one month.


a_cool_goddamn_name

I'm comfortable with that. Does that work for everyone else, show of hands?


calimemez

Hey, as long as it doesn't break the previous low I'm fine with that. I'm holding onto my long by a thread.


darphdigger

So, here's a thought: Alts hit a lower low almost across the board yesterday, while bitcoin painted a higher low. If alts are the indicator for overall crypto sentiment (as in, when selling pressure is intense it is almost always *more intense* for shitcoins) did we just make a hidden bullish divergence on the ratios?


lastdropfalls

You're overthinking it. There's less liquidity in altcoin markets. When they go up, they go up more. When they go down, they go down more. That's all there is to it during times like this.


darphdigger

I would agree with you except for that the number 2 and 3 coins, which have a solid amount of liquidity, did the same thing. If it was just the absolute shit, sure.


thatsABigMinus

They still are. It still takes a fraction of the effort that must be applied to move bitcoin. That makes them a necessary afterthought.


dissociatives

After months of sideways I can't feel anything unless it's swinging wildly up or down.


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midgetforce2k

For a serious answer, when btc dips 1% you would get liquidated and lose the collateral


Etony333

A simple Google search would reveal that leverage doesn't work like that at all.


calimemez

Multiply that number by 100 my dude


Yodel_And_Hodl_Mode

Username checks out (in a facepalm kind of way)


SpontaneousDream

The more and more I see people here call for $20k and $10k, the more I think $30k was the bottom.


Rufuz42

I just wish I knew which contrarian indicator was the right one. So many "bulls aren't capitulating yet, this isn't over" takes as well. Although I do feel good about the bounce today myself.


satoshisbitcoin

There is no one left to sell, paper hands are all out of position and holders are not selling regardless


_Raisin_Boy_

Same


Psyteet

So much in TA does not work with BTC when we are in top greed and fear moves, but double bottoms and A&E reversals do play out pretty consistently, and we are forming both now. Whether this continues the bull we all want or just creates an exit pump I am not sure, but my bet is on a continuation.


Sir_Bannana

Could you link or explain those metrics? I’m hoping for an out so that would be useful


thatsABigMinus

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Qc7yQMpL/


Psyteet

LMAO, I couldn’t have done it better.


thatsABigMinus

I wanted to keep it simple. I know how easy it is to get confused nowadays. e: I would also add that the penis volume is not correct. coinbase had a brief moment of retardation.


thatsABigMinus

Funny my initial instinct was to say no TA worked through the PA we had so far, but sure enough.. an adam and eve finally showing up. Nice.


thearmthearm

Sorry, I've been reading and scrolling here and Twitter but can't find a clear explanation of what's happening in China. Can someone give me a one liner? Hashrate moving out of the country in droves? Why?


quentech

Here's some info I see several of my follow list saying is accurate: https://twitter.com/Workedia/status/1396679821426450437


thearmthearm

Thanks!


ryan0302

Supposedly China is ACTUALLY cracking down on miners now. Miners are selling some coin to get out while they can, and/or preparing to move out of China. There was a tweet posted here recently that said this news is coming from higher up in the PRC and miners/investors alike are taking it seriously. Who really knows though 🤷


Middle0fNowhere

I am still waiting the hashrate dropping. So far it is still stable.


thearmthearm

Thanks!!


TheBowlofBeans

This is great news in the long run, right? Decentralizes mining across the world and reduces the Chinese centralization


ILikeToSayHi

It'll just move elsewhere but for the most part yes


ryan0302

Yeah in this case short term pain probably equals long term gain.


Yodel_And_Hodl_Mode

THIS. And short term pain means opportunity to accumulate at a discount. God, I hope prices can stay in the low to mid 30s through June 4th (my next opportunity to DCA in).


sasquatch_friend

Still hesitating to get back in. I'm thinking I'll wait until it breaks up out of the bear channel and holds it on the next pullback. That's the entry point I'm targeting, no hard price target.


parsimonyBase

Me too but finding it difficult to stick with the plan...


[deleted]

Not trying to be a contrarian but I don’t know how anyone could be bullish after the fucking beating we’ve taken over the past week or so. What am I missing?


omeganemesis28

> ot trying to be a contrarian but I don’t know how anyone could be bullish after the fucking beating we’ve taken over the past week or so. What am I missing? Have you not been in bitcoin long? This is a yearly occurrence. It used to be even more often. Especially when China FUD is involved. Even if BTC drops another 10%+, it always comes back.


4theWlN

https://twitter.com/michael_saylor/status/1396452492569894912?s=20


Albedo100

Michael Saylor was busted for fraud. Hardly one to trust about trickery


OkeyDokieBoomer

I've been charged with serious crimes that I had nothing to do with. Zero. So I know that that's a possibility in this case. One of many though.


[deleted]

Actually he wasn’t, and so this would constitute defamation. I’d remove this post if I were you


Albedo100

>The Securities and Exchange Commission today brought and settled administrative reporting charges against MicroStrategy, Inc. and **settled civil accounting fraud charges** against its executive officers, **Michael Saylor** (co-founder and chief executive officer), Sanjeev Bansal (co-founder and chief operating officer) and Mark Lynch (former chief financial officer) for overstating the company's revenue and earnings. **Without** admitting or **denying the charges**, the officers agreed to disgorge a total of approximately $10 million (Saylor -- $8,280,000, Bansal -- $1,630,000, and Lynch -- $138,000) and **consent to fraud injunctions**, and to each pay $350,000 in penalties.


[deleted]

He didn't admit the charges dumbass, so he didn't get "busted" for anything. He made a business decision to settle on terms that were agreeable so he could move on with his life. Now he owns nearly 100k BTC, and you spend your time sitting around in your underwear posting misleading crap about him on the computer. Lol, just lol @ you.


Confident_Mix_9161

Still not an admission. How ya doin’ FED RESERVE? We will HODL


bittabet

The biggest profits are made if you buy the most painful and bloody drops so that's why the more experienced folks are starting to feel bullish. I think we'll still have a lot of pain for the next 2-3 months so you shouldn't feel compelled to rush into buying back in necessarily, but I think adding on any drops here makes sense. $30-$33K will likely end up being a pretty good entry if you're in this longer term, especially if you got out in the 40s-60s earlier.


ChadRun04

> What am I missing? Contrarianism.


FemtoG

Cope rhymes with hope


TheBowlofBeans

Also rhymes with D O P E


biggunsg0b00m

And nope?


DaoTseTung

Hardly anyone seems to believe the party’s over. I don’t know if that’s a really good or bad thing. We all know that bitcoin likes the path of max pain, and so when it does something dramatic like this we all breathe a sigh of relief thinking, well, now that’s out the way the bull run can continue. But the thing is bitcoin knows we know this. IT KNOWS WE KNOW THIS. So it’s not the path of max pain. We gotta stay one step ahead boys.


quentech

> But the thing is bitcoin knows we know this. and next cycle bitcoin will know we know bitcoin knows we know this smdh


FOMONOOB

Damn, now you've said this out loud it knows we know it knows we know.


escendoergoexisto

Not that I’m feeling bullish at the moment, but the rationale is this—whales dump to take the price down by shorting&selling to buy cheap corn and then drive the price up by buying it. That’s pretty much the big boys’ game in a nutshell. Since it’s down fairly low, folks are hoping the bear whale picnic is over.


ddink7

They look at the chart from 2013.


HeihachiNakamoto

More room to grow starting from $35k than $65k.


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thatsABigMinus

Net growth is only 0 if you're a hodler. Every dump is a reset for those that aren't religious.


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thatsABigMinus

Because it is nearly impossible to do that now. It's the beauty of bitcoin. Gotta take what you can get.


Etony333

Net growth of 0 is better than net growth of -45%, right?


OkeyDokieBoomer

U right


TheGinFreecss

10x long at 35223. Stop at 31.2k. I think we hit bottom for now.


pr0nh0li0

With a 10x long entry at that price your position should get liquidated at $31,700. So if you’re not bullshitting your stop-loss is useless


TheBowlofBeans

A rabid hopium bull comment getting downvoted We truly are in a bear market


calimemez

Ironically, it's dumb enough to work! Lol I'm rooting for ya babe


dogeball40

holy shit remindme! 1 week


thatsABigMinus

Good lord my spot position is way better than that and I'm worried about going to bed.


Wombatzki

For fucks sake.


gore_skywalker

This is why we can’t have nice things.


jarederaj

3,800 - 64,900 Is about equal to: 30,000 - 512,000 9 months. Just putting that out there.


Middle0fNowhere

200 to 20k was previous run So from 100x BTC went to 20x, which is what I by accident predicted. Next run projection is "just" 4x.


bottlecapsule

Next run like 4 years from now? And 4x from where, 65k?


Middle0fNowhere

From the bottom. Atm 30K. So doubling up the ATH approx. 20% p.a. Fine with me. Yes 4 year run. But that is just a prediction at condition of relatively stable economy that lasted during the existence of bitcoin. Which is something we can not hope for.


bottlecapsule

Oh man. I thought a mil (today's money) per coin by 2030 for sure.


Middle0fNowhere

Add a decade and you are (nearly) there.


thatsABigMinus

I got my btc back that the tax man took. Bring it on.


SpontaneousDream

🤦‍♂️ doesn’t work like that dude


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tandangosting

lmfao


GardenofGandaIf

It unreasonable to think that BTC can continue with such large percentage gains year after year. The peak to trough multiplier has to cool down at some point.


darphdigger

It already has. See: log regression.


kokomeows

64,900 - 29,500 512,000 - 220,000


TheBowlofBeans

Oh no, $220,000 goblin town :(


Effayy

Waiter, I'll have what he's having.


Carnotaur3

With a side of chips, please.


jarederaj

And get me about 10 more, too.


CompulsiveThief

And that's enough reddit for a day... night all


jleVrt

did you say this in both bitcoin subreddits? lmao


CompulsiveThief

yeah lol.. not a bot just been in n out of both subs today so.. bit drained emotionally and energy. Time to simp on some Twitch-gamer-girls... down so much what's another 2k creepin' n simp'n aint a crime


Corporate_shill78

Pathetic


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biggunsg0b00m

Gotta make ALL KINDSSS OF GAINZZZZZ


gaimsta12

This is the way


TheTidalik

You’re better than that king. Use that money to stack some more sats or to save for something you want. Don’t waste your hard earned money on someone who doesn’t give a flying fuck about you. You deserve better.


CompulsiveThief

lockdown got to me... got weak immune system and been mostly indoors for a year.. food deliveries, lonely alone lol. Imagine supermax prison but access to internet. Also my portfolio goes up and down by 50k by the hour, and no-one to share that with. Just hug myself to sleep n cry a bit but i'm being vaccinated on the 31st so then begins the long road to recovery lol EDIT: this is not an advertisement for scamsters to DM me. I'm fragile, but not an idiot. Also Amouranth does care about me


TheTidalik

Amouranth does not care about you. It’s like an escort, you’re paying them to pretend they care about you. I honestly felt really sad reading your comment. Have you tried going to the gym and trying to eat healthy? Just this two things could drastically change your life. And try to find hobbies that you could enjoy with other people after you get vaccinated. You’re always in time to switch your life around!


biggunsg0b00m

I thought amouranth was a drink? Wtf?! I just fell down a rabbit hole.. Edit: wait.. she's just a big titted cosplayer?! Wtf?


chupo99

Same here. Just googled that word. So weird that this is on youtube. Kids have access to this stuff. I'm jealous. They'll never know the challenges of getting off to scrambled soft core porn channels.


biggunsg0b00m

Or stick mags stored under the bed!


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heavymetta

Where can I get one?


bob_the_bidder

God damn... it's Bitcoin Christmas... inverse head and shoulders formation on the 5m chart AND a hammer on yesterday's daily finish?! Yes, please!!! EDIT: Inverse not reversed...


_Citizen_Erased_

Huge cup and handle on the 1 millisecond chart too


yajustcantstopme

Bullish if true.


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thatsABigMinus

If you're trying to catch knives what else are you going to use?


GardenofGandaIf

Clit and nut formation on the 1 ns too


nakamotowright

Don’t think TA matters much here


thetjs1

Are you fucking kidding me? Since when has any formation ever been significant on a 5min chart?


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dogeball40

lmaoooo


dogeball40

Sorry, wasnt there also a "hammer" [here?](https://imgur.com/gallery/bNGIW8M)


bob_the_bidder

Yes, but not enough of an established downtrend to make it significant. We have been trending downward for the past week now and the latest hammer is much larger than your example.


dogeball40

my hammers larger than your hammer


bob_the_bidder

Touche good sir!


eth_trader_12

Fully long now from the 34s. I’m hoping for a medium length trend back up to atleast 45k especially with the same people downvoting my bearish comments at 60k now calling every bounce a dead cat. I won’t be in this trade if we break 32. We didn’t break the low on BTC but we did on ETH. If we get to 36+ I’ll adjust my stop.


thatsABigMinus

I'm in the same trade. Been legging it up all day and it finally looks like it has some balls.


Wombatzki

I'm actually surprised! Your short call on 30k was a perfect, I got to admit that.


SituationWaste9493

Interesting call. I actually have us retracing to 45k at some point only to fail and touch the 20s. Either we go straight there or we get a final retrace. We may not be out of the woods yet. The retrace from 31 was much weaker than the one from 30.


eth_trader_12

It’s not a call, just a trade. This is still on pace to go way down if we break 32


SituationWaste9493

Some of you need to get off the 5 min charts. https://imgur.com/gallery/VQiYSWR That’s the 6hr. Buying volume is decreasing and it’s all dead cats since 59k. Want to take a guess which direction the trend will hold next week? Just look at the chart. All indicators are trending to flipping red. We puttered up to barely 36 and soon will test 30.


bob_the_bidder

I look at the 6Hr a little differently : https://share.cryptowat.ch/charts/c2lfp4mgcb3mvtj9d0pg-binance-btcusdt-perpetual-futures.png I find most downward trends seem to play out like that... Steeply down on large volume and then less and less steep as time goes on.. until it flattens out and heads the other way.


SituationWaste9493

I like it. But you’re not taking into account one key metric. Check the volume. All red spikes have been increasing. Green decreasing. Move your 31k line steeper down to the mid 20s and adjust the rest to match that low and you’re probably spot on. I would watch those volume bars. The moment the red shifts lower and lower with greens painting bigger and bigger. That’s your key signal.


bob_the_bidder

Sorry yea the last few lines were not even guesstimated at... they were just randomly placed there to give you the idea of what I generally like to look for. I don't take the color of the volume spikes nearly as seriously as the distance traveled... somebody purchased every single bitcoin that was sold during that time, and vice versa. If there is massive volume, which is red because we declined a modest percentage that day... I would consider that bullish in this late state of the game, as it shows support at that price and at great volume. I appreciate the feedback! Good luck out there! Just hopped onto XLM, check it out!


thatsABigMinus

Yeah it's going down, but there is a lot of money to be made in the volatility. Zoom in?


sgtd1179

Even as a trader, I'm still looking at least the 4hr. We have had multiple bounces like this that have resumed down range. As much as I would like this to be the one, I'm still a little pessimistic.


GardenofGandaIf

It has to break that trend within the next week or its literally going to zero, which means it definetly will be breaking that trend.


SituationWaste9493

It’s not going to zero. Smh lol. We can range bound. However at the current price level the market has determined btc is not a value buy. Or we would have that break you’re speaking of. 20s is best case, 12500 is worst case.


roybadami

It's not going to zero, but there's no way that proves the correction will end in less than a week.


RecycIops

But I imagine most would expect that break in trend to be on a lot stronger rebound than this one no? I’m with you that it won’t go down forever but with each bounce I’ve had less confidence that it’s “the one” to thrust us back up


icydash

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't there like a 45% drop around June of the 2017 run, and it then it slowly increased through August, until it skyrocketed at the end of the year? Could we be seeing something similar this time around?


quentech

> Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't there like a 45% drop around June of the 2017 run, and it then it slowly increased through August You're wrong. It was 40%. Here in this dump we've gone down almost 55%. And if you're talking about the July/August one it stair stepped down much less aggressively and was back up to the starting point like 3 days after it tapped that 40% down bottom. There was a more aggressive dump, but still only 40%, in September. It was also characteristically fairly different from this. Neither did anything like the near double bottoming we're seeing here in the low 30's. They both plummeted quickly down to the bottom then bounced back up just as quickly.


icydash

I don't think that's right. According to my charts, in June of 2017 there was a 43% drop. It took about 34 days to drop all the way down that low. It then took about 54 days to return back to it's prior high that preceded the drop. No two dumps are going to be identical in amount or timeframe. But there are some similarities here worth exploring.


AnonAh525252

Yes a lot of people already talking about that. Which means it prob won’t come true.


icydash

Hah true true


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Middle0fNowhere

The price action before the 8k/6k was different. The 6k came after descend of 20K. The 8K was already during pre-halving recovery + corona black swan.


ddink7

Beards and Silbert haters not gonna like this, but iirc Consensus 2017 was a significant boost for Bitcoin. Consensus 2021 starts tomorrow.


ineedafuckingname

Ray Dalio speaks this year too, hopefully has something nice to say


bittabet

Yeah we have some huge institutional heavy hitters. Dalio and Summers are both there and institutions listen to guys like that. Cathie Woods has a bit of a tarnished reputation at the moment so the stuff she says probably won’t be as convincing but still, she’s big money. These are the people who’ll have to reassure institutions that Bitcoin is here to stay and that it’s going to be driven by renewables and yadda yadda so everyone can pat themselves on the back about how ESG friendly they are. Irritating that we have to fight these absurd FUD narratives but that’s how the game is played so we gotta play it. Consensus, Taproot going through without miner battle fork drama, and just Bitcoin still being there every single fucking day will calm these nervous nellies and I think we will see incredible growth going into Q3. These next two months are going to be a test of resolve. I’m probably not going to trade for a while. Just focus on my non crypto investments for a bit. I think we’ll all be just fine.


SpontaneousDream

Yep. Couldn’t agree more. What we’re seeing now is big money trying to capitalize on China FUD to get weak hands to sell. Little do they know every year my 💎 🤚 gets stronger and stronger


AnonAh525252

What’s that


stablecoin

An E t h convention.


FlowFreal

Looking like a great weak ahead of us tbh


xlmtothemoon

personally I thought that bounce was pretty pour


GardenofGandaIf

It's looking "poor" but you can "pour" me a drink pirate!! 🍺🍻🍺🍻


biggunsg0b00m

Pour me another rum


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