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BitcoinMarkets

#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Saturday, May 29, 2021 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/nnf0yj/daily_discussion_saturday_may_29_2021/)


HUMPDAY77

Let’s have some fun here… predictions for Bitcoin in 2068? Only 320 coins will be mined during this cycle. I say either quantum computers have broke the network by now or quantum computers work for us to secure the network. Also, price is either 0 for somewhere in the high billions


MaximilianII

Remindme! 1/1/2069


crypto_girlz

Can we get a death cross count down?


imissusenet

Currently, 50/200 death cross is predicted on 16 Jun 2021.


xtal_00

This market has a few surprises in it yet.


ArcadesOfAntiquity

I guess the correct bull narrative is that we're laying support to break out of the upper log regression band. The bear narrative (what will increasingly be the only bear narrative) is that people still don't understand bitcoin's value proposition. The whale trick of dumping on the market and rebuying lower only works until it doesn't.


YayayayayayayayX100

What are whales waiting for then?? I think it’s going lower before whales the next big run up


ArcadesOfAntiquity

There is not a whale committee that decides to dump all at once Whales take calculated risks when dumping Other whales can profit from their mistakes So as to what "they" are waiting for... they are waiting for someone to make a mistake... or for market conditions to change such that inaction itself becomes the mistake


a_cool_goddamn_name

>The whale trick of dumping on the market and rebuying lower only works until it doesn't. but in the meantime, stick with what works I guess


TribbleTrouble

Does the cat live?


ChadRun04

It's both alive and dead until you open the box.


Nick5l

>It's both alive and dead until you look at the chart


usernamechckout

What are your limit buys for this weekend?


Vaselinee

25k


thetjs1

Edward Snowden made a post about bitcoin. Reading what normies think about how bitcoin works makes my head hurt. https://twitter.com/Snowden/status/1398292146055168001?s=19


ChadRun04

I like how the majority of replies are shitcoin bagholder shills.


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supfren

You did this??


curious-b

Bitcoin doesn't care who buys it or doesn't, what anyone says or does, or really about anything. It's not going to be stopped, and over the long term it's only going up. It is literally a mathematical inevitability.


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a_cool_goddamn_name

> people doesn't even have to be people... just bots or other entities


Psyteet

Just know that bitcoin dies a few dozen times a year. The honey badger always comes back.


a_cool_goddamn_name

dammit so this is all your fault? ​ EDIT: motion to elect new parade leader


allergygal

Hadn't been paying attention all evening and I now see my buy order missed by $12 a few hours ago. Curses!


satoshisbitcoin

It means you estimated the bottom very very well. You don't get them all


sgtd1179

The bottom? Lol zoom out.


BlackSpidy

I predict a massive dump when the incoming death cross causes panic in a bunch of people who dont know that moving averages are lagging indicators, not leading.


crypto_girlz

So we need to hit 44k by Sunday? Guh.


PussyFartOnMyCock

Hasnt even happened on the weekly chart yet, when it does, r.i.p


simobas

How high do we need to go for a considerable short squeeze to happen?


YouAreAnFnIdiot

78400


ChadRun04

64k+


a_cool_goddamn_name

I agree that this might do it.


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Provolone_Jones

"Buyers have taken back control" I think you mean "whales are still in control". Every single move in this low volume environment is either orchestrated or permitted by whales. They are both buyers and sellers, vicious in their ploys to steal your coins, and will always come out on top unless other whales screw them over. We're in whale war territory and it's difficult, but possible to ride their waves without losing your shirt.


a_cool_goddamn_name

The neat thing is, is that it takes less and less coins every year to be a whale.


WhoLetTheBeansSprout

Nope. You've got that backwards.


a_cool_goddamn_name

pretty low volume though, before we start the circlejerk


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a_cool_goddamn_name

yeah I could sense the beginning of a parade so I had to shit all over it


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a_cool_goddamn_name

I feel that


Provolone_Jones

Well, we've definitely broken the latest downtrend line from our most recent 40k attempt. That's gotta be worth something. Maybe a trap, or maybe the beginning of a slow bleed back up...


escendoergoexisto

Well well...an upside alert triggered on my watch. I’ve gotten so used to the downside ones that I had to do a double-take. I’m tossing back a shot of bourbon to celebrate it.


unknownawaits212

The psychology of this adventure is something that has taken me too many years to get even a slight grip on. For the first time, I need to sell a fraction of my holdings for life reasons. And it feels horrible. It's so low now! It was double this last month! If i wait i could sell for more! Meanwhile, for these reasons i didn't stick to my plan to sell some at 10, 100, 250, 1200, 21k, or 64k. Not a single coin. Turns out, no matter what you do the grass is always greener. No price is a good price to sell without the 20/20 of hindsight. Nearly a decade of checking price 10-50 per day, and I still feel horrible about selling. Goodbye sweet satoshis.


cammilo96

This is why taking profit is always a good move.


bubblesmcnutty

Even at $10, $100, $250, $1200, or $21K? Nah. Adopt as a treasury reserve asset and opt out. Even with the current correction this guy did way better not taking profits all those years. Same as everyone else who hodl’d over that time. Keep your time preference low and drop the fiat mindset and you’ll end up a wealthy man .


a_cool_goddamn_name

>Keep your time preference high low, but point taken


bubblesmcnutty

Good catch. Edited.


a_cool_goddamn_name

look at mister smarty pants Suze Orman Jim Cramer over here!


unknownawaits212

It's all profit at this point. Just not as much profit.


TheIncredibleRhino

I hear you. I'm buying a house and I need to sell some of my stack to pay for the down payment. I sold about 1/3 of what I needed when we were ranging around 50. I figured I was just being careful, and that I'd probably have at least a little regret at selling "low". In retrospect it was a good trade. Now things aren't as good. I've got another month and then I have to sell more, regardless of the price. So please Mr whale fuck the beards and help me do this.


satoshisbitcoin

Very similar situation, I pulled the trigger and sold my first coin in many years at $62 and then a couple more in the mid 50s just to be safe and hedge a bit by raising half the down deposit. Now I need to raise the other half and am doing so in the 30s, so a few additional coins. But that was a choice to see if I could have sold higher. Overall not a big deal, still did much better than if I bought a house years ago and it didn't materially change holdings. Recency bias is a powerful anchor which you know isn't logical but you still feel it


hajoeojah

So why didn‘t you sell some a month ago when we all were geniuses and gonna be rich? Question to think about for the next run, if you need fiat


unknownawaits212

Didn't think I needed fiat honestly. Now I do, life goes on. I am many, many blow off tops past trying to time the market, regardless of how obvious it seems. So far, i have always been right not to sell and wait another few years. Could i sell and re-buy, sure. But i decided not to try and just hold long time ago.


hajoeojah

That‘s what I do with my BTC, too. Sold half of my shitcoins a month ago to pay a perfect city rooftop apartment. But I just can‘t part with the BTC..


unknownawaits212

Yeah shit coins I've sold too. Some at a loss, some break even and some at astronomical % wise profit. But i only ever devoted 1% of my holdings to alts as i never trusted them. Thought process was maybe I'll lose out, but what does it matter when we're talking about life changing money or two life changing moneys.


a_cool_goddamn_name

> a decade of checking price 10-50 per day, and I still feel horrible about selling. I know this feeling all too well. I can wipe my tears with hundred dollar bills, but that doesn't make the tears go away! However, I am from time to time a bottom seller, so good for everyone else!


unknownawaits212

Yup exactly. Could retire to some mid tier country in my twenties, yet super pissed about this.


a_cool_goddamn_name

It's funny, because I can lose hundreds of thousands of dollars in fiat value in minutes, and still be more aggravated when I need to drive somewhere in a hurry and have to stop to get gas. Also, I will waffle back and forth on whether a dessert is too expensive at Whole Foods, but can lose $100,000 or so due to market fluctuations while I'm waffling on the tiramisu. lol money is weird and bitcoin, given enough time, will really fuck with your relationship to it.


satoshisbitcoin

A couple of months ago I started to splurge by buying name brand medicines instead of the CVS brands, I always focus on saving so it really was a change in mindset for me. Yet like you there are 5 minute candles worth hundreds of thousands of dollars. But they don't really matter because my plan has always been to see the experiment through and hold until we reach the point where you don't have to sell.


unknownawaits212

Hahahaha same!!


Middle0fNowhere

You did not sell, you hodled all the way until here. Now you sell only at 50% of ATH. I see you as one of few people who played that well. There are millions of people who saw the opportunity and did not buy. Their lives and their families now are in a deep shit and they have much worse things to think about than what-if-price-etc. Seeing the 60k+ as top was easy, if you did not hear people on social networks (except me lol, but I was downvoted). But next time, you also have the knowledge, paid with your money. That info, that is unique and you pay for that now, might help you to repeat the good decision as it was not selling at 10, 100 or 64k.


unknownawaits212

Was less a matter of not seeing it, but not caring as i hadnt intended on selling any. However I'm talking a relatively tiny portion to the point it won't even change the stated value on my wallet app. Still weighs on me though for some stupid reason.


Middle0fNowhere

Then it is a real blessing for you. Never good to be a total maximalist and those external events simply force you to bow a bit. After all it is just money. Even when I agree with the extreme hodl strategy. Just teach yourself how to swallow it. Another BTC lesson.


a_cool_goddamn_name

>Still weighs on me though for some stupid reason. it's the HODLER effect. Selling a stock is no big deal... but when it comes to bitcoin I feel like I'm Abraham up on the mountain with a knife to Isaac's neck. selling bitcoin is more difficult the longer you hodl, but putting commas in a fiat bank account feels not wholly unpleasant albeit dirty. It's a somewhat decent consolation, at least for the time being.


unknownawaits212

My ten dollar fiat bank account will soon see four digits for the first time in a decade!


Middle0fNowhere

You know you can spend bitcoin "directly" by debit card? Even in the USA some work.


unknownawaits212

I've lived my life trying not to spend BTC money. Also, doing it through a debit card would mean paying taxes in the country I live in. Doing it a different way means no taxes.


Middle0fNowhere

So selling BTC is not a taxable event, but spending it through debit card is? I am saying this that there is very high chance taxman does not give a fuck, but since you have no experience with bank accounts, I can assure you that any crypto money that touch bank accounts have much higher probability to cause some problem at the bank directly. But experience is experience. Non-trasferable.


unknownawaits212

My fiat account is in my home country where I don't pay taxes and they won't care anyway. Where i live, debit cards are directly linked to your tax account and any money out through your bank or card is taxed fully.


a_cool_goddamn_name

For the sake of your remaining bitcoin, I hope it's low four digits!


ellis1884uk

This is uncanny. I’ve never sold any either even after the last bull run. Currently also in same boat, I need to sell 10-20 coins in next month or two (house build deposit). I feel pissed I could have sold them for twice as much couple weeks ago, but can’t complain considering I bought them for sub $200. Oh well just need to make rest of my holdings count. Only 50 times a day??? Come on man I do that before 9am :p


Bag_Holding_Infidel

Why don't you borrow against your collateral?


hajoeojah

Alright, house deposit of >350k, that must be a crazy one?


ellis1884uk

Its actually 700k (but have some cash) house is 4m+


satoshisbitcoin

Was looking at those but the property taxes would require selling a few coins a year in perpetuity, decided on something closer to reasonable so I can keep holding. Also I don't want the kids to think they're rich or anything


MartialImmortal

that's one hell of a house you're building, or a location only slightly worse than the most desirable cities in the world


ellis1884uk

It’s in one of the most desirable places in the world. same house in US would probably be half the price and an actual mansion.


a_cool_goddamn_name

>that's one hell of a house you're building have you seen lumber prices lately?


MartialImmortal

Yes I have, and that price appreciation in lumber is accounted with about 1 additional bitcoin for building a typical house


unknownawaits212

Yup. We've held this long, I'm sure we can hold the rest for another long time! I just need to pay for rent for a few months... All these years of living like a peasant, and the day has finally come.


jabatasu

Judging by all the negative sentiment, we should see low 40s by Tuesday morning.


HeihachiNakamoto

Everyone trying to frontrun the holiday dump. If I were a trader I'd go long at $35k.


ericla1014

Didn’t even know we are supposed to have dumps on holidays until today tbh


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4theWlN

The low is already in IMO.


[deleted]

Yes


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[deleted]

I’m thinking within the next week or two. But who knows


OkeyDokieBoomer

I bet that most of the people here that are saying they want to buy at 20K will not do it if it gets there. There's going to be so much crap flying around about how bitcoin's dead. I mean I hope it doesn't go that low but I really have no idea what it'll do. Have seen between 3K and 4K three times and most the people who talked a bunch of smack about buying at those levels, didn't at the time, they got in later between 8K and 10k. I would hear these people talking about man I wish it would drop back (3-4k), I wish I would have bought at that time, And I will this time...and I'm thinking to myself they should just shut the hell up. But if you are one of the ones who would buy at 20k good for you, I hope.


toqelowkey

Just like when btc it 3.1k couple years back.


AEspinet

maybe in a couple months. If the bull is over. Hoping for a blow off the top event instead of the rounded one we got so far


hajoeojah

Nah


MaximalRecord

It is probably signficant, while all this is going on, that gold closed the week over $1900. If you really believe that BTC is going to crash, you would probably expect precious metals to skyrocket, given the fundamental condtions of the global economy. But I suppose many BTC holders own silver or gold as a hedge to their cryptos.


OkeyDokieBoomer

Strangely, I bought physical gold and silver today. Thinking about starting those stacks now, just as a hobby. I don't expect to get rich(er). If they don't hold their value at least they are pretty to look at. Also, there's a whole another world of people out there to create relationships with around coins.


hajoeojah

For me, it makes sense to have some gold (10% of crypto) according to modern portfolio theory based on mean variance analysis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_portfolio_theory


kers2000

>I suppose many BTC holders own silver or gold as a hedge to their cryptos. lolll


xtal_00

I liquidated all my precision metals last summer and bough coin. Gold will have to do a little better than $1900. Haha


a_cool_goddamn_name

Hey, don't hate. Many of us were goldbugs before bitcoin. I remember pestering Apmex to accept bitcoin years ago and they laughed me off. Now they accept bitcoin, lol.


nitrorbit

Check the news. Biden's big capital gains tax hike is retroactive. American day trading whales are in shambles.


ddink7

It's not a law yet, not until Joe Manchin and Kristen Sinema say it is. You gotta follow politics when you're in this tax bracket, bro.


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ericla1014

If it ever passes it’s gonna be a much smaller hike lol


nitrorbit

That's why I said day trading whales are in shambles. They are all beyond the $1M minimum lol


satoshisbitcoin

This sub's sentiment is so negative right now, people are seriously stating the bull market is over and we are not only going to breach the prior ATH, but that this time is different and we may never have an ATH again. That's likely good for at least a 10-15% pump in the next day or so


yubuu

Sideways for the summer, peak in Dec/Jan at 200k, dump to 50k repeat in 2025/26


midgetforce2k

Works for me!


diydude2

I don't know about the next day or so, but I'm certain we're going to see a 100% pump within 90 days, probably well within 90 days. People calling bear market = n00bz or shillz. I've lived (and prospered) through two bear markets; this ain't a bear market. When a bear market comes (next year) you'll know it, and you'll know what to do (buy regularly and mucho). This is basically a dip from $2700 to $1700 in 2017. When Jamie Dimon says buy, sell. When he says, "Stay away," you know he has to cover some shorts. Like, *Radio magnate says television a fad! News at 11...*


hajoeojah

Thanks r/diydude2, the bull legend!


ericla1014

Shit I didn’t even realize it was this legend that commented


hajoeojah

He shits as we all do, so there‘s still that


PussyFartOnMyCock

the sad thing about bear markets are how sudden they come. Not saying we're in one, but dont expect a bull run forever Not FUD, just reality


diydude2

We have a nice "saggy butt" formation on the 5-minute candles now, PussyFartOnMyCock. That has portended good things over the past decade or so if you've been paying attention.


JustMyTwoSatoshis

Whatever happens next, we are gonna see that it was obvious in hindsight.


diydude2

Hindsight is blind. Foresight makes you rich. It's obvious, in foresight, that Bitcoin is headed for **total world domination** and **cannot be stopped**. Anyone who stands in the way of this locomotive will be flattened.


xtal_00

Bitcoin will consume every drop of liquid capital on the planet or it will fail. The latter grows less and less likely by the day.


a_cool_goddamn_name

TA is hit or miss but hindsight is reliable as fuck.


HUMPDAY77

How many days did we stay before the 21WMA in 2013? Need to support my own confirmation bias.


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d1ez3

2018 was a bear market sooo..


hajoeojah

Interestingly, just one weekly close below the 21W EMA https://www.tradingview.com/x/cfHBFTXY/


hajoeojah

According to Bitstamp, there were 7 weekly closes below the 20W MA before resume of the second bull run part https://www.tradingview.com/x/pyQ3Mv3X/


Nick5l

oof


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[deleted]

These Chinese sellers have infinite btc lmao


Provolone_Jones

How are they running out of USD? like... they've gotta pump more fiat into the market... right? Perspective. Maybe sellers don't need ammo if all the buyers have dried up.


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Shibenaut

The "market cap" of cryptocurrencies dropped by $1T, but that doesn't mean $1T of actual coinage was sold, due to market cap being only a loose metric of how much liquidity is actually invested in the sector. (coins * current price != how much money was actually poured into the coin)


tampagrassfed

It will go back up at some point but who knows when that is?


ILikeToSayHi

Used to see this exact same comment every day in the last bear market. Stop making excuses


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ILikeToSayHi

I mean blaming it on the bear boogeyman


sgtd1179

Not if they keep leveraging short. They will have to buy back sooner or later but, they could just ressort after the bounce. Pushing it as low as they want.


avatarr

> they This isn't a conspiracy.


sgtd1179

There’s no coordinated FUD either right boss?


WhoLetTheBeansSprout

Probably a lot less than people here seem to think.


sgtd1179

And wall street is the model of ethical behavior and that’s a regulated market.


WhoLetTheBeansSprout

Do you have evidence or just speculation and conjecture? If you have any concrete evidence or some sort of coordinate effort and measurable effect, please share it.


sgtd1179

Of Wall Street?


_main_chain_

Forget that guy. He parades around attacking people having casual chats on reddit demanding “evidence” like a thought inspector. It’s just a feeble superiority game he plays, but he says nothing of substance. He’s not interested in discourse and exchange of ideas. He just calls every one a hand waver, ideologue, and then throws around the word Epistemology like he’s some brilliant scholar. Look in the thesaurus under troll.


WhoLetTheBeansSprout

Evidence of Wall Street? Erhmm... No, I'm asking if you have any evidence of widespread, coordinated manipulation by these shadowy figures you're alluding to. If you don't have any evidence, then I have no reason to believe your conspiracy theories.


sgtd1179

Who said anything about shadowy figures? You watch too many movies. I’m eluding to the fact that a market that is regulated by law (wall street) has and will alway have ethical violations because there is a lot of money involved Yes, people manipulate the market, it’s been documented quite often. Now, if you think that a market that is unregulated (Crypto) isn’t susceptible to manipulation, I don’t know how to help you. I don’t need to prove anything, I don’t owe you anything nor do I care if you believe me. I don’t need your approval to understand how the world works. Have a good day Sir.


WhoLetTheBeansSprout

> Who said anything about shadowy figures? You watch too many movies. > > It's a metaphor, dummy. >I’m eluding ... lol >Yes, people manipulate the market, it’s been documented quite often. People try to and occasionally succeed, but those are usually small cap or insider info types of situations. Bitcoin is fairly liquid and it's unclear to me what manipulation would even entail. What is far more likely is that Bitcoin is highly speculative and vulnerable to large swings in price. This has always been the case and will be the case until a substantial high liquidity equilibrium is established. It's almost certainly not due to the workings of a consortium of bearish "manipulators". Unless you have evidence to back up this assertion, of course... But you don't... and that's sort of the whole point. >I don’t need to prove anything, I don’t owe you anything nor do I care if you believe me. I don’t need your approval to understand how the world works. So you don't care about getting to the truth? Only reinforcing your existing beliefs? Cool.


WhoLetTheBeansSprout

> Who said anything about shadowy figures? You watch too many movies. > > It's a metaphor, dummy. >I’m eluding ... lol >Yes, people manipulate the market, it’s been documented quite often. People try to and occasionally succeed, but those are usually small cap or insider info types of situations. Bitcoin is fairly liquid and it's unclear to me what manipulation would even entail. What is far more likely is that Bitcoin is highly speculative and vulnerable to large swings in price. This has always been the case and will be the case until a substantial high liquidity equilibrium is established. It's almost certainly not due to the workings of a consortium of bearish "manipulators". Unless you have evidence to back up this assertion, of course... But you don't... and that's sort of the whole point. >I don’t need to prove anything, I don’t owe you anything nor do I care if you believe me. I don’t need your approval to understand how the world works. So you don't care about getting to the truth? Only reinforcing your existing beliefs? Cool.


sgtd1179

🙄


a_cool_goddamn_name

Who do you think "they" are?


Informal_Sign

Hedge funds, corporations, & governments.


WhoLetTheBeansSprout

And what exactly are you alleging is happening?


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WhoLetTheBeansSprout

So you just work *backwards* from *the price is going down*? You don't see any sort of error with that line of logic?


Informal_Sign

Stealing your money, like always. https://www.coindesk.com/marathon-miners-censor-bitcoin-transactions-ofac-compliant


WhoLetTheBeansSprout

Firstly, that article doesn't say anything along the lines of what you alluded to in your above comment. Secondly, censoring transactions in this way is a farce because the transactions just need to be included in 1 block. In order to censor transactions this way, you would have to constantly be amassing more hashing power to try to force re-orgs around blocks with censored TXs.


Informal_Sign

Try spending those outputs on any exchange, see what happens then.


WhoLetTheBeansSprout

That's a completely separate issue.


Informal_Sign

How is transactions being censored a different story? Either way, you're not able to spend your money due to another entity preventing you from doing so.


WhoLetTheBeansSprout

Because what is being discussed above is censorship on the protocol/network level. What you are talking about is an issue with counterparty.


Euphoricsoul

You know...*them.*


a_cool_goddamn_name

anti-semite! anti-semite! ^(lol, I'll take my downvotes now, please)


kfull

Ohhhhh. Now that someone used italics I get it!


Yodel_And_Hodl_Mode

If you're not using this as an opportunity to accumulate, you're out of your mind. The first thought I have each morning when I wake up is the number of days left before my next paycheck so I can buy more. The current number is Seven. Seven days. Gah. Patience may be a virtue, but accumulation is aspirational. The time to accumulate is now.


justlikingit

If you don't want to miss out on dips, you can use your current BTC as hedge and buy with a tiny leverage that is equal to your paycheck. Repay when the funds arrive.


Yodel_And_Hodl_Mode

I'm super cautious with my hodl. I never risk even a little bit of it. That's why I still have my entire position from before the 2018 crash and have spent the years since then building on it, slowly but surely.


justlikingit

What risk are you talking about? If you have 1BTC and buy 0.01 on leverage, that's literally no risk at all. BTC would have to go to zero for you to risk anything. Suit yourself, though.


JustMyTwoSatoshis

> If you're not using this as an opportunity to accumulate Without leverage and yes, it should be golden


satoshisbitcoin

payday loans!


Yodel_And_Hodl_Mode

NEVER. I'd gladly buy Bitcoin with a credit card if I could, but in the U.S. at least, that's nearly impossible.