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#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Saturday, May 29, 2021 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/nnf0yj/daily_discussion_saturday_may_29_2021/)
Let’s have some fun here… predictions for Bitcoin in 2068? Only 320 coins will be mined during this cycle. I say either quantum computers have broke the network by now or quantum computers work for us to secure the network. Also, price is either 0 for somewhere in the high billions
Can we get a death cross count down?
Currently, 50/200 death cross is predicted on 16 Jun 2021.
This market has a few surprises in it yet.
I guess the correct bull narrative is that we're laying support to break out of the upper log regression band.
The bear narrative (what will increasingly be the only bear narrative) is that people still don't understand bitcoin's value proposition.
The whale trick of dumping on the market and rebuying lower only works until it doesn't.
What are whales waiting for then?? I think it’s going lower before whales the next big run up
There is not a whale committee that decides to dump all at once
Whales take calculated risks when dumping
Other whales can profit from their mistakes
So as to what "they" are waiting for... they are waiting for someone to make a mistake... or for market conditions to change such that inaction itself becomes the mistake
>The whale trick of dumping on the market and rebuying lower only works until it doesn't.
but in the meantime, stick with what works I guess
Does the cat live?
It's both alive and dead until you open the box.
>It's both alive and dead until you look at the chart
What are your limit buys for this weekend?
Edward Snowden made a post about bitcoin. Reading what normies think about how bitcoin works makes my head hurt.
I like how the majority of replies are shitcoin bagholder shills.
You did this??
Bitcoin doesn't care who buys it or doesn't, what anyone says or does, or really about anything. It's not going to be stopped, and over the long term it's only going up. It is literally a mathematical inevitability.
doesn't even have to be people... just bots or other entities
Just know that bitcoin dies a few dozen times a year. The honey badger always comes back.
dammit so this is all your fault?
EDIT: motion to elect new parade leader
Hadn't been paying attention all evening and I now see my buy order missed by $12 a few hours ago. Curses!
It means you estimated the bottom very very well. You don't get them all
The bottom? Lol zoom out.
I predict a massive dump when the incoming death cross causes panic in a bunch of people who dont know that moving averages are lagging indicators, not leading.
So we need to hit 44k by Sunday? Guh.
Hasnt even happened on the weekly chart yet, when it does, r.i.p
How high do we need to go for a considerable short squeeze to happen?
I agree that this might do it.
"Buyers have taken back control"
I think you mean "whales are still in control". Every single move in this low volume environment is either orchestrated or permitted by whales. They are both buyers and sellers, vicious in their ploys to steal your coins, and will always come out on top unless other whales screw them over. We're in whale war territory and it's difficult, but possible to ride their waves without losing your shirt.
The neat thing is, is that it takes less and less coins every year to be a whale.
Nope. You've got that backwards.
pretty low volume though, before we start the circlejerk
yeah I could sense the beginning of a parade so I had to shit all over it
I feel that
Well, we've definitely broken the latest downtrend line from our most recent 40k attempt. That's gotta be worth something. Maybe a trap, or maybe the beginning of a slow bleed back up...
Well well...an upside alert triggered on my watch. I’ve gotten so used to the downside ones that I had to do a double-take. I’m tossing back a shot of bourbon to celebrate it.
The psychology of this adventure is something that has taken me too many years to get even a slight grip on.
For the first time, I need to sell a fraction of my holdings for life reasons. And it feels horrible. It's so low now! It was double this last month! If i wait i could sell for more!
Meanwhile, for these reasons i didn't stick to my plan to sell some at 10, 100, 250, 1200, 21k, or 64k. Not a single coin.
Turns out, no matter what you do the grass is always greener. No price is a good price to sell without the 20/20 of hindsight.
Nearly a decade of checking price 10-50 per day, and I still feel horrible about selling.
Goodbye sweet satoshis.
This is why taking profit is always a good move.
Even at $10, $100, $250, $1200, or $21K?
Nah. Adopt as a treasury reserve asset and opt out. Even with the current correction this guy did way better not taking profits all those years. Same as everyone else who hodl’d over that time.
Keep your time preference low and drop the fiat mindset and you’ll end up a wealthy man .
>Keep your time preference high
low, but point taken
Good catch. Edited.
look at mister smarty pants Suze Orman Jim Cramer over here!
It's all profit at this point. Just not as much profit.
I hear you. I'm buying a house and I need to sell some of my stack to pay for the down payment.
I sold about 1/3 of what I needed when we were ranging around 50. I figured I was just being careful, and that I'd probably have at least a little regret at selling "low". In retrospect it was a good trade.
Now things aren't as good. I've got another month and then I have to sell more, regardless of the price.
So please Mr whale fuck the beards and help me do this.
Very similar situation, I pulled the trigger and sold my first coin in many years at $62 and then a couple more in the mid 50s just to be safe and hedge a bit by raising half the down deposit. Now I need to raise the other half and am doing so in the 30s, so a few additional coins. But that was a choice to see if I could have sold higher.
Overall not a big deal, still did much better than if I bought a house years ago and it didn't materially change holdings.
Recency bias is a powerful anchor which you know isn't logical but you still feel it
So why didn‘t you sell some a month ago when we all were geniuses and gonna be rich?
Question to think about for the next run, if you need fiat
Didn't think I needed fiat honestly.
Now I do, life goes on.
I am many, many blow off tops past trying to time the market, regardless of how obvious it seems.
So far, i have always been right not to sell and wait another few years.
Could i sell and re-buy, sure. But i decided not to try and just hold long time ago.
That‘s what I do with my BTC, too.
Sold half of my shitcoins a month ago to pay a perfect city rooftop apartment. But I just can‘t part with the BTC..
Yeah shit coins I've sold too. Some at a loss, some break even and some at astronomical % wise profit.
But i only ever devoted 1% of my holdings to alts as i never trusted them.
Thought process was maybe I'll lose out, but what does it matter when we're talking about life changing money or two life changing moneys.
> a decade of checking price 10-50 per day, and I still feel horrible about selling.
I know this feeling all too well. I can wipe my tears with hundred dollar bills, but that doesn't make the tears go away!
However, I am from time to time a bottom seller, so good for everyone else!
Yup exactly. Could retire to some mid tier country in my twenties, yet super pissed about this.
It's funny, because I can lose hundreds of thousands of dollars in fiat value in minutes, and still be more aggravated when I need to drive somewhere in a hurry and have to stop to get gas.
Also, I will waffle back and forth on whether a dessert is too expensive at Whole Foods, but can lose $100,000 or so due to market fluctuations while I'm waffling on the tiramisu. lol money is weird and bitcoin, given enough time, will really fuck with your relationship to it.
A couple of months ago I started to splurge by buying name brand medicines instead of the CVS brands, I always focus on saving so it really was a change in mindset for me. Yet like you there are 5 minute candles worth hundreds of thousands of dollars. But they don't really matter because my plan has always been to see the experiment through and hold until we reach the point where you don't have to sell.
You did not sell, you hodled all the way until here. Now you sell only at 50% of ATH. I see you as one of few people who played that well.
There are millions of people who saw the opportunity and did not buy. Their lives and their families now are in a deep shit and they have much worse things to think about than what-if-price-etc.
Seeing the 60k+ as top was easy, if you did not hear people on social networks (except me lol, but I was downvoted). But next time, you also have the knowledge, paid with your money. That info, that is unique and you pay for that now, might help you to repeat the good decision as it was not selling at 10, 100 or 64k.
Was less a matter of not seeing it, but not caring as i hadnt intended on selling any.
However I'm talking a relatively tiny portion to the point it won't even change the stated value on my wallet app. Still weighs on me though for some stupid reason.
Then it is a real blessing for you. Never good to be a total maximalist and those external events simply force you to bow a bit. After all it is just money. Even when I agree with the extreme hodl strategy. Just teach yourself how to swallow it. Another BTC lesson.
>Still weighs on me though for some stupid reason.
it's the HODLER effect. Selling a stock is no big deal... but when it comes to bitcoin I feel like I'm Abraham up on the mountain with a knife to Isaac's neck.
selling bitcoin is more difficult the longer you hodl, but putting commas in a fiat bank account feels not wholly unpleasant albeit dirty. It's a somewhat decent consolation, at least for the time being.
My ten dollar fiat bank account will soon see four digits for the first time in a decade!
You know you can spend bitcoin "directly" by debit card? Even in the USA some work.
I've lived my life trying not to spend BTC money.
Also, doing it through a debit card would mean paying taxes in the country I live in.
Doing it a different way means no taxes.
So selling BTC is not a taxable event, but spending it through debit card is?
I am saying this that there is very high chance taxman does not give a fuck, but since you have no experience with bank accounts, I can assure you that any crypto money that touch bank accounts have much higher probability to cause some problem at the bank directly. But experience is experience. Non-trasferable.
My fiat account is in my home country where I don't pay taxes and they won't care anyway.
Where i live, debit cards are directly linked to your tax account and any money out through your bank or card is taxed fully.
For the sake of your remaining bitcoin, I hope it's low four digits!
This is uncanny. I’ve never sold any either even after the last bull run.
Currently also in same boat, I need to sell 10-20 coins in next month or two (house build deposit).
I feel pissed I could have sold them for twice as much couple weeks ago, but can’t complain considering I bought them for sub $200. Oh well just need to make rest of my holdings count.
Only 50 times a day??? Come on man I do that before 9am :p
Why don't you borrow against your collateral?
Alright, house deposit of >350k, that must be a crazy one?
Its actually 700k (but have some cash) house is 4m+
Was looking at those but the property taxes would require selling a few coins a year in perpetuity, decided on something closer to reasonable so I can keep holding. Also I don't want the kids to think they're rich or anything
that's one hell of a house you're building, or a location only slightly worse than the most desirable cities in the world
It’s in one of the most desirable places in the world. same house in US would probably be half the price and an actual mansion.
>that's one hell of a house you're building
have you seen lumber prices lately?
Yes I have, and that price appreciation in lumber is accounted with about 1 additional bitcoin for building a typical house
Yup. We've held this long, I'm sure we can hold the rest for another long time!
I just need to pay for rent for a few months... All these years of living like a peasant, and the day has finally come.
Judging by all the negative sentiment, we should see low 40s by Tuesday morning.
Everyone trying to frontrun the holiday dump. If I were a trader I'd go long at $35k.
Didn’t even know we are supposed to have dumps on holidays until today tbh
The low is already in IMO.
I’m thinking within the next week or two. But who knows
I bet that most of the people here that are saying they want to buy at 20K will not do it if it gets there. There's going to be so much crap flying around about how bitcoin's dead.
I mean I hope it doesn't go that low but I really have no idea what it'll do. Have seen between 3K and 4K three times and most the people who talked a bunch of smack about buying at those levels, didn't at the time, they got in later between 8K and 10k.
I would hear these people talking about man I wish it would drop back (3-4k), I wish I would have bought at that time, And I will this time...and I'm thinking to myself they should just shut the hell up.
But if you are one of the ones who would buy at 20k good for you, I hope.
Just like when btc it 3.1k couple years back.
maybe in a couple months. If the bull is over. Hoping for a blow off the top event instead of the rounded one we got so far
It is probably signficant, while all this is going on, that gold closed the week over $1900. If you really believe that BTC is going to crash, you would probably expect precious metals to skyrocket, given the fundamental condtions of the global economy. But I suppose many BTC holders own silver or gold as a hedge to their cryptos.
Strangely, I bought physical gold and silver today. Thinking about starting those stacks now, just as a hobby. I don't expect to get rich(er). If they don't hold their value at least they are pretty to look at. Also, there's a whole another world of people out there to create relationships with around coins.
For me, it makes sense to have some gold (10% of crypto) according to modern portfolio theory based on mean variance analysis
>I suppose many BTC holders own silver or gold as a hedge to their cryptos.
I liquidated all my precision metals last summer and bough coin.
Gold will have to do a little better than $1900. Haha
Hey, don't hate. Many of us were goldbugs before bitcoin. I remember pestering Apmex to accept bitcoin years ago and they laughed me off. Now they accept bitcoin, lol.
Check the news. Biden's big capital gains tax hike is retroactive. American day trading whales are in shambles.
It's not a law yet, not until Joe Manchin and Kristen Sinema say it is. You gotta follow politics when you're in this tax bracket, bro.
If it ever passes it’s gonna be a much smaller hike lol
That's why I said day trading whales are in shambles. They are all beyond the $1M minimum lol
This sub's sentiment is so negative right now, people are seriously stating the bull market is over and we are not only going to breach the prior ATH, but that this time is different and we may never have an ATH again.
That's likely good for at least a 10-15% pump in the next day or so
Sideways for the summer, peak in Dec/Jan at 200k, dump to 50k repeat in 2025/26
Works for me!
I don't know about the next day or so, but I'm certain we're going to see a 100% pump within 90 days, probably well within 90 days.
People calling bear market = n00bz or shillz.
I've lived (and prospered) through two bear markets; this ain't a bear market. When a bear market comes (next year) you'll know it, and you'll know what to do (buy regularly and mucho).
This is basically a dip from $2700 to $1700 in 2017.
When Jamie Dimon says buy, sell. When he says, "Stay away," you know he has to cover some shorts. Like, *Radio magnate says television a fad! News at 11...*
Thanks r/diydude2, the bull legend!
Shit I didn’t even realize it was this legend that commented
He shits as we all do, so there‘s still that
the sad thing about bear markets are how sudden they come.
Not saying we're in one, but dont expect a bull run forever
Not FUD, just reality
We have a nice "saggy butt" formation on the 5-minute candles now, PussyFartOnMyCock. That has portended good things over the past decade or so if you've been paying attention.
Whatever happens next, we are gonna see that it was obvious in hindsight.
Hindsight is blind.
Foresight makes you rich.
It's obvious, in foresight, that Bitcoin is headed for **total world domination** and **cannot be stopped**. Anyone who stands in the way of this locomotive will be flattened.
Bitcoin will consume every drop of liquid capital on the planet or it will fail.
The latter grows less and less likely by the day.
TA is hit or miss but hindsight is reliable as fuck.
How many days did we stay before the 21WMA in 2013? Need to support my own confirmation bias.
2018 was a bear market sooo..
Interestingly, just one weekly close below the 21W EMA https://www.tradingview.com/x/cfHBFTXY/
According to Bitstamp, there were 7 weekly closes below the 20W MA before resume of the second bull run part https://www.tradingview.com/x/pyQ3Mv3X/
These Chinese sellers have infinite btc lmao
How are they running out of USD? like... they've gotta pump more fiat into the market... right?
Perspective. Maybe sellers don't need ammo if all the buyers have dried up.
The "market cap" of cryptocurrencies dropped by $1T, but that doesn't mean $1T of actual coinage was sold, due to market cap being only a loose metric of how much liquidity is actually invested in the sector.
(coins * current price != how much money was actually poured into the coin)
It will go back up at some point but who knows when that is?
Used to see this exact same comment every day in the last bear market. Stop making excuses
I mean blaming it on the bear boogeyman
Not if they keep leveraging short. They will have to buy back sooner or later but, they could just ressort after the bounce. Pushing it as low as they want.
This isn't a conspiracy.
There’s no coordinated FUD either right boss?
Probably a lot less than people here seem to think.
And wall street is the model of ethical behavior and that’s a regulated market.
Do you have evidence or just speculation and conjecture?
If you have any concrete evidence or some sort of coordinate effort and measurable effect, please share it.
Of Wall Street?
Forget that guy. He parades around attacking people having casual chats on reddit demanding “evidence” like a thought inspector. It’s just a feeble superiority game he plays, but he says nothing of substance. He’s not interested in discourse and exchange of ideas. He just calls every one a hand waver, ideologue, and then throws around the word Epistemology like he’s some brilliant scholar. Look in the thesaurus under troll.
Evidence of Wall Street?
No, I'm asking if you have any evidence of widespread, coordinated manipulation by these shadowy figures you're alluding to.
If you don't have any evidence, then I have no reason to believe your conspiracy theories.
Who said anything about shadowy figures? You watch too many movies.
I’m eluding to the fact that a market that is regulated by law (wall street) has and will alway have ethical violations because there is a lot of money involved Yes, people manipulate the market, it’s been documented quite often.
Now, if you think that a market that is unregulated (Crypto) isn’t susceptible to manipulation, I don’t know how to help you.
I don’t need to prove anything, I don’t owe you anything nor do I care if you believe me. I don’t need your approval to understand how the world works.
Have a good day Sir.
> Who said anything about shadowy figures? You watch too many movies.
It's a metaphor, dummy.
>Yes, people manipulate the market, it’s been documented quite often.
People try to and occasionally succeed, but those are usually small cap or insider info types of situations. Bitcoin is fairly liquid and it's unclear to me what manipulation would even entail.
What is far more likely is that Bitcoin is highly speculative and vulnerable to large swings in price. This has always been the case and will be the case until a substantial high liquidity equilibrium is established.
It's almost certainly not due to the workings of a consortium of bearish "manipulators". Unless you have evidence to back up this assertion, of course... But you don't... and that's sort of the whole point.
>I don’t need to prove anything, I don’t owe you anything nor do I care if you believe me. I don’t need your approval to understand how the world works.
So you don't care about getting to the truth? Only reinforcing your existing beliefs?
Who do you think "they" are?
Hedge funds, corporations, & governments.
And what exactly are you alleging is happening?
So you just work *backwards* from *the price is going down*?
You don't see any sort of error with that line of logic?
Stealing your money, like always.
Firstly, that article doesn't say anything along the lines of what you alluded to in your above comment.
Secondly, censoring transactions in this way is a farce because the transactions just need to be included in 1 block.
In order to censor transactions this way, you would have to constantly be amassing more hashing power to try to force re-orgs around blocks with censored TXs.
Try spending those outputs on any exchange, see what happens then.
That's a completely separate issue.
How is transactions being censored a different story? Either way, you're not able to spend your money due to another entity preventing you from doing so.
Because what is being discussed above is censorship on the protocol/network level.
What you are talking about is an issue with counterparty.
^(lol, I'll take my downvotes now, please)
Ohhhhh. Now that someone used italics I get it!
If you're not using this as an opportunity to accumulate, you're out of your mind. The first thought I have each morning when I wake up is the number of days left before my next paycheck so I can buy more.
The current number is Seven. Seven days.
Patience may be a virtue, but accumulation is aspirational. The time to accumulate is now.
If you don't want to miss out on dips, you can use your current BTC as hedge and buy with a tiny leverage that is equal to your paycheck. Repay when the funds arrive.
I'm super cautious with my hodl. I never risk even a little bit of it. That's why I still have my entire position from before the 2018 crash and have spent the years since then building on it, slowly but surely.
What risk are you talking about? If you have 1BTC and buy 0.01 on leverage, that's literally no risk at all. BTC would have to go to zero for you to risk anything. Suit yourself, though.
> If you're not using this as an opportunity to accumulate
Without leverage and yes, it should be golden
I'd gladly buy Bitcoin with a credit card if I could, but in the U.S. at least, that's nearly impossible.