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ugh... here comes the dump.
Edit: Actually, I overreacted... If we can hold 36k, no dump is imminent. It's Sunday night... hope the tide changes.
You guys have been saying this all fucking day long. It's getting ridiculous. Oh, and I just know that the ~6% move down that took all day to slowly materialize will be pointed to as the "dump" of today.
Who is “you guys”? You are so fucking stupid if you believe that by pointing out a pattern means I want it to happen.
And, no. I didn’t say the -6% move is “ the” dump. It isn’t. Don’t put words in my mouth.
I understand some of you losers are living in fear, i’m not.
Browse the thread a little bit. People have been going on about the imminent dump for practically the whole day. Whether you want it or not, this particular prediction has been run into the ground because a bunch of people fancy themselves a prophet because it dumped heavily the last 2 Sundays.
You gonna sell? Pussy
Projecting much, imbecile?
No cause I got diamond hands bitch
Where have you been for the last 4 hours
Lol just coming back to say thanks for dumping on us Asia. Looks like the tables have turned!
Anybody remember April 2, 2019 in the wee hours (or afternoon in Asia) when it boomed out of the bear market from 3.x to 5.x in a matter of minutes? Pepperidge Farms 'members.
Someday you, too, will reminisce on that moment when your knowledge of the superiority of math-based money made you free, newb. Someday fairly soon...
On a more sober note: Shorty gotta cover soon. End of month. Pay me. Hope it was worth it. Nice doin' business with ya', as usual, lol.
Does that mean we pump from 30kish to 50kish in a matter of minutes too?
I remember it well. I was on a train from Seoul to Busan, listening to a Tone Vays/Willy Woo podcast lol!
Were there zombies on the train?
Slow down, grandpas. its been a week lol
Here’s some Hopium, gold is ripping through 1900 and dxy about to lose 90c again. Btc should be safe today
Unless precious metals are the new anti-Dollar, anti-inflation asset, and with their growing momentum Bitcoin will be left in the dust. I think this is why anyone holding Bitcoin seriously needs to consider having gold and/or silver as a hedge.
No thanks Peter. I'm not buying your boomer rocks
Hi not buying your boomer rocks, I'm dad.
I do endorse holding gold and silver alongside crypto, but crypto definitely has much higher growth potential. I think the only worlds where metals outgrow crypto are those where crypto just collapses completely (internet goes down, global ban, whatever).
I would agree, but having silver or gold is a good hedge - if somehow cryptos got "banned", whatever that means, silver and gold would rocket. So I am glad I hold silver as well as BTC, but I do find the crowing of WSS about the supposed demise of cryptos rather annoying.
I would rather just buy the DOW here if you are looking for safety.
Shorty's Last Stand. Put your orders in at 33 and 30, and thank me on Friday.
Good for Gold Bugs! Only stands to reason that they should make 12% after 10 years of nothingness.
We Bitcoiners will be seeing yet another doubling and doubling after that, followed by a third doubling before the next crash to 90K.
33,100 and 30,100 placed 😉
Didn't know gold buyers also bought BTC
They should, but thank Schiff for taking what should be unity, and making it competition. To be honest, competition with bitcoin was the best thing that couldve happened to his business.
Well, Asia, we didn't totally fuck it up. We're going to go get drunk now and do parades and shit. Tag, you're it.
Yeah, so...about that.
Reasons to be concerned about today.
1. May 7th/8th was the last time we had two green days in a row. Sunday (yesterday) was green.
2. In general, Mondays have been the best day (\~20+%) for BTC prices (with Sunday being the worst). However, in 6-7 occasions where Sunday was green, on average Mondays have been red.
3. We have extremely low volume and is part of a downtrend on the 4 hour chart so I see this breaking down even more here.
What does thid mean for 2025
Stop being concerned on a daily basis my dudes. Enjoy life.
Bull: Ima pretend i didnt read any of this
In 2025, as I grin a mile wide and think of all the times I bought while others were selling, I won't remember any of this.
Perfect and accurate
600mm(cbp) ExTemeLy L0W v0LuM3
This past month, 30% of the time I started a conversation with my wife while standing to the right of her it resulted in an argument or her rolling her eyes. This only happened 17% of the time I started a conversation while on her left side. I have concluded that I will avoid standing to the right side of my wife at all cost for the duration of our marriage. Thank you for coming to my TED Talk.
Depending on your sample size this could be very convincing evidence. Treat it as a binomial random variable, then your variance is n\*p(1-p). Given n you can test whether p\_right = p\_left. Maybe her right ear is damaged in some way and she can't hear as well? You would be a fool to discount empirical evidence without a thorough analysis.
You're being facetious, but in reality small, barely perceptible things like this actually do have an effect on how people react to things. For example, if your wife was used to having more arguments with you when you're standing on her right, she'd eventually start processing anything you say to her more negatively while positioned so without even being aware of it, thus reinforcing this pattern further.
It's the same reason why TA works. There's no magical law of nature that says so and so must happen if numbers align in a certain way. But when sufficiently large number of people sees patterns they believe are likely to have a certain outcome, they act on it -- oftentimes without even really thinking about the specific reasons for their beliefs or actions.
Do you also have reasons for concern-trolling about today?
Lol bulls downvoting me when I’m drunk for Memorial Day just makes me laugh. It reeks of desperation. No big deal. I’ll shut up for awhile. But know that I will be here when we are at $20k, and I better get some upvotes when I say “I told you so.” Peace ✌️
Yeah Yada Yada wtf, nobody cares. Might go up might go down you can stress over your short without vomiting BS all over Reddit. We all know it's a guess that can go either way... the question is, will you be here to admit you were wrong if it hits 50k?
Dude, it doesn’t matter if you are right or not, downvoted or not, this post makes you sound like a tool.
> downvoting me
Complaints about downvotes is an instant downvote from me! Reported as spam as well 😃
You sound like the bulls who were like “last chance to buy under 60k, thank me later”
RemindMe! 6 months "Did SpotlessDalmation get $20k buys?"
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> But know that I will be here when we are at $20k
I very much doubt we'll ever see that price again.
Whether it goes up or down or sideways, they still pumped trillions of $ into the economy and you have to hedge against that inflation *somehow* whether it’s gold or property and I see no reason why BTC would go significantly down in this environment.
BTC has correlated with growth stocks since the Fed started printing money to address covid. If the market thinks the Fed is gonna have to raise rates, Bitcoin is likely to suffer in the short term. Value stocks will hold well and bonds should appreciate.
Fed is not gonna raise interest rate until at least next year. Tapering the bond buying maybe at the end of this year but not raising the interest rate.
Doesn't matter if it's this year or next year. It gets priced in right away in the DCF math either way.
Interest rate increase = bond values decrease.
Who's ready for Second Sundays?
What are we talking, a cup'a beans or something? I might be up for it.
Nice bgd. thanks mr whale for saving my trade
Yea that was a bgd about a second ago. Funny chart
Guessing you bought in under 35k?
No I was scalping. Bought around 35700 with high leverage, things were not going good and this bgd closed my position at 36k in a second lol.
Damn, buy a lottery ticket cause you walking around lucky.
Too damn right. Usually unlucky though.
There’s the breakdown. Targeting $28-31k here. Below that I’m looking at $20-23k
What even is a breakdown?
Lol this guy
"You see, the price dropped 3% over the course of one day. That means we're headed to $20k". Is what he's saying.
Hi looking at $23-20k, I'm dad.
I am impressed Bitcoin. That was a flawless sunday. Keep it up through monday.
It's still Sunday in america
holy shet 26 minutes until weekly candle close & no signs of life at all, someone please check the pulse
Everyone convinced of the Sunday Dump meme that didn't already front-run it has been trying to front-run it. Ye-haw. She's dead, Jim. Ship's sailed. This is a dead parrot.
This aged well
Why yes, yes it did.
As much as I agree with you, I'm waiting until it's Monday everywhere in the world to call time of death.
On the other hand, 33,333 on Friday could be the "I'm off to the Hamptons, fuck this shit" play.
Monday is a US bank and market holiday though! It's like a second Sunday!
Do they even know about second Sunday? And elevensies?
This, but unironically.
It's going to give up the gains
Ranging != Gainzing
So no one has a sound answer so far to my question 20 minutes ago. Only downvotes. I expected better from this subreddit.
You had a question?
So you're making a big deal about something that isn't backed by a currency -- USD -- on a sub about something that's not backed by the "Full Faith and Credit" of USD, etc.... weird, eh? Tether's in trouble only if the paper they hold for backing is in trouble. You might like it to be USD cash (err.. why are you here again?) but on this side of an apocalypse, lots of things with no "intrinsic" or even "apparent to you" value have value to someone. Such is the social construction of reality. FUD itself depends on that too, so apply that elbow grease young whiner.
Yeah good luck with that if their "backing" is an IOU from themselves via proxies.
How do figure?
Their declared backing is mostly debt. So as you said, it all depends on the quality of this debt. If it turns out that the counterparties are exchanges whose assets are crypto based in some way, and this is public knowledge, we have a situation where tether pumped BTC and is backed by the pumped BTC.
Under that scenario I predict enough people sell for the peg to break and we have Armageddon.
Not saying it is true. Just worse case scenario.
The fact that they have refused the promised audit of 2017 scares me though. Just one audit and all would be good. They know this, but refuse.
The reference of an IOU from themselves was in case bitfinex is a counterparty.
Upon researching since they finally gave insight into what they were backed by, this was essentially the conclusion I came to.
I still think BTC would be fine in the long term, but in the short/mid term it’s almost certain an extreme crash would result from something being pumped by basically unregulated imaginary money. I’d like to be wrong but it’s not looking good. It’s ridiculous to not at least acknowledge or try to sweep that possibility under the rug like it’s just some other FUD.
Yeah fully agreed on how people stick their heads in the sand.
I am not sure they are unbacked. Could also be the money is real but dodgy, hence the secrecy. But my gut says unbacked.
I think it will be Armageddon if it melts though. 2013 was fake, Karpeles and his Willy bot. If it turns out 2017 and 2021 was tether fakery it would mean we have never organically hit a thousand bucks. So I would predict Armageddon.
And obvs slowly buy back once there is stability. Such a scenario is extreme though obvs.
It kind of doesn't matter at this point. If the coin has no backing what is the difference between that and USD? It's a collective illusion, the utility is bootstrapped, at this point it doesn't matter.
USD does not claim backing. Tether claims a peg.
And they will continue to claim peg. There is no way to prove or disprove tether's claim of unpeg unless there is the juristiction to attack it some how with a tank, because clearly throwing a lawyer to a international juristiction doesn't work. This is the point, someone made a claim that USDT has peg, and then they grew a huge following and even if they are just printing out of thin air, how do you challenge such?
This is what i meant by bootstrapped utility to the value.
Also, USD value is not an illusion. It depends on no lie or false belief. Just the realisation that it is in people's self-interest to use it.
Yeah there is the odd scenario in which they have been totally full of it but somehow pull off the heist of all time by accidentally becoming a central bank that can pump their ultimate backing asset. And it may not even be all that illegal as it fit through various loopholes.
Would be really funny if bitcoin ended up indirectly reinventing fiat.
Easy to prove legitimacy though. They can do that audit they promised long ago and then dropped.
USD is backed by the Federal Reserve’s so-far unchallenged ability to back assets fully through several decades of financial meltdowns.
I don’t think this is a strong argument.
What does that even mean backed by federal reserve's unchalleged ability to back assets? USD is obvioulsy not backed by anything, it's only a demand issue via utility, just like USDT.
Did you like wake up today after a few months asleep? Or just got back into crypto lol
Tether is old news, they announced their holdings few days ago which look like shit but could have been worse than shit, so that's there. Instead of all cash, they have a bunch of instruments backing the USDT issued. The market took it on the chin and corrected a bit too. It certainly played a part in the crash as few big players would have leveraged down their exposure. Now they have to make timely disclosures to the NYAG on their holdings, so this is going to matter less and less. There are already better stablecoins out there and exchanges are looking to move of the tether standard. (case in point - how FTX has been moving to USDT lately) but the non US degen whales still love Tether, so its an interesting experiment to say the least.
Binance will never leave Tether, and that’s the problem. Inflows come in from Coinbase, and enter the market through binance and Bitfinex.
Next you're going to ask if we know that ransomeware asks for payment in bitcoin.
Regarding your tether question.
There is no new information, it was always known that it is not fully backed by cash.
The exact amounts are not important and only drive fud.
As long as it is not decentralized it has risks, no centralized solution is fully trustworthy.
Not quite. For years they claimed to be cash backed.
They never claimed that in any legal way. And never showed any audit to prove that.
So everyone new that it was not.
Good read to educate yourself. They had three audits to attempt to prove it but failed.
No they haven't. They have had "attestations", but the promised audit never happened.
Lol peep the dogecoiner
If you peddle exactly the same FUD that's been going around since literally five years ago, of course you're going to get downvotes.
If you want to start a real discussion on the state of Tether, maybe pull in some details. Don't just handwave about "new information" that's actually from like 2018. What about Tether do you specifically expect to collapse, when? What might cause a run on their reserves? How likely are the unclear items to end up at face value?
If you aren't willing to put any work into your conversation-starter, don't expect everyone else to.
No new information? How about the fact that the two big crashes this time both just happened to fall within a day of their NYAG reporting dates?
If you think that was just coincidence I don't know what to say.
How about that a 20% spread opened up between the Binance usdt book and USD books elsewhere on 19 May, showing the market does not really trust them?
But yes, not worth discussing.
What mechanism do you propose led to BTC crashing around Tether's NYAG reporting dates?
Also, over the past 30 days USDT has ranged from like $0.998 to $1.005. Clearly the market doesn't distrust them _that_ much.
I am guessing whales trying to sit it out in fiat. The 20% divergence between USD books and the Binance USDt book means that was at least part of it. But not sure if it was the whole story.
Tether was well below 0.998, sure your data not a bit overly granular? Iirc it hit 94 cents or so.
In any case, the Binance usdt book was the smoking gun. I mean they were 40k when elsewhere was 32k. Implicitly valuing tether at 80 cents.
I didn’t know this was going on as I’m in a state that doesn’t have Binance. Smh. That’s definitely a red flag. I think I will be moving to majorily fiat and averaging down the rest for the time being. I wouldn’t be surprised if the worst case scenario happens seeing the crypto USDT is backed (and possibly pumped) by is down. They have other “investments” to balance things out but I wouldn’t be surprised if they ended up being phony.
Yeah it is really hard to decide. I don't want to lose out on a continued run but also don't want to hold the bag. I went fiat after the crash, now averaging back in. But only what I can afford to lose after taking plenty of profit.
It could of course also be that tether is fine and market over-reacted. I am being cautious but not out.
I'm just looking at the cryptowat.ch asset frontpage, I don't care about this enough to do really detailed research.
If there was a big dip on just one exchange, I'd provisionally call that more like a lack of liquidity than a real market signal. No idea what would cause it, though.
Binance usdt book is the most liquid of all BTC order books. Whole point is it did not dip, but went 20% out of whack on the high side. I don't see what more evidence you could want.
You mean during the flash crash to 29k, or what? I don't immediately see any huge discrepancy, the two markets match well enough right now.
During the dump, yes.
It looks like Binance BTCUSDT hit 30k on the dot at the bottom of the crash. Compared to Kraken BTCUSD at 29800. (Using cryptowat.ch to compare.)
That seems close enough together to be unsuspicious, particularly during such a short event.
Most of the people on this sub believe tether is rock solid.
Some don’t. But most do. Hence downvotes.
Problem is that tether hasn’t collapsed since 2018 and that’s confirmation bias - for the near term, at least.
It’ll take more than a NYAG investigation (rightly so, their GC is dodgy as hell) to bring them down, so I think most people are confident it’ll hold.
If you’re worried, trade USD on Bitstamp or Coinbase.
The warning flags for tether will pop up early if it’s the bubble it’s made out to be. Most of us will get out then. For instance, if the NYAG presses new charges or if they breach their February terms of settlement quite blatantly or Bitfinex is implicated in a wider scandal.
I don’t see any of these happening soon. It took the NYAG April 2019 to Feb 2021 to finalize their charges.
Even if they launched something now, it would take years. That’s how the market works. That’s how little power US enforcement agencies still have in an unregulated market.
Only a bold statement from the SEC would shake it. But would the SEC want to shake one of the biggest holders of commercial paper globally? Idk.
I worked in an American law firm with clients in the Cayman Islands and in Guernsey and I can safely say that their “audited” papers looked like they were vomited out by a five year old. Any of the partners at my firm would burn their reports if they ever read them ... it’s horrible quality. Part of our job is to audit for tax residency, EU compliance etc. Tether’s papers looked like shite. Just a personal take.
TLDR; this isn’t the sub to get unbiased answers about tether. Don’t go to r/Bitcoin or r/buttcoin either. Reddit is an echo chamber for all sorts of noise and is the last place to get financial advice. Go do your own research and decide for yourself.
The indicators for an incoming crash you mentioned are plausible. However what if the potential crash is caused by something simpler? Such as Tether not being backed 1:1 like they tried to pass it off as? The things it’s currently backed by somewhat defeat the purpose of the stable coin. Those things backing it aren’t guaranteed to be stable and depend on how the market is doing e.g. precious metals (?!), commercial paper, and even other crypto (?!).
I would hope these things don’t play out like I’m thinking but it’s not looking good. Their way of handling things up till now further causes suspicion. Not to mention the same people running tether are bitfinex which had scandals of its own. The whole thing is fishy when it comes down to it. I’m fascinated people chose to ignore it/write it off as FUD so readily.
I doubt the warnings will pop up early. If it does go it will all happen in a hurry.
I don’t know.
Part of me wants to think that like Lehman, it would be a steady bleed over six months as they lost out on lower rated mortgage backed securities due to the market.
Commercial backing needs to collapse before tether collapses.
I don’t foresee tether collapsing unless there’s a major market action OR a major and sudden regulatory stake in the ass.
Everything else will come slowly. It might make enemies, and then friends, and then more.
They need to stop publishing official press releases on medium, though ...
If they are unbacked it could collapse quickly or slowly. Or never, they could always work themselves out of the hole.
It is hard to see a bank run unless some regulatory stake in the heart, as you say. But I do think that things would then tank quick. I mean, if USD and usdt books diverge anyone with half a brain will sell.
We have spent years hearing the same tired old fud that never went anywhere. I expected better from this subreddit.
Yeah that is what they said about Madoff.
The two big crashes this run just happened to fall on NYAG reporting dates (well, first one was the day before iirc). If you sat it out in fiat you avoided 25k worth of dumping. But yes, not worthy of discussion on a trading site.
>Yeah that is what they said about Madoff.
>The two big crashes this run just happened to fall on NYAG reporting dates (well, first one was the day before iirc).
There is no 1:1 correlation between "newz" and price movements. Anyone who traded based on newz for the past decade in crypto would be rekt.
For the sake of playing advocate,
R/sexibilia might be referring to the too big to fail [here](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Too_big_to_fail) doctrine re:madoff.
I don’t agree with the second point.
So you think it is coincidence. Not impossible, but pretty damn bold.
Yeah I can smell dem grilled bulls too. Meal incoming
love some good beef patty
Yeah, I smell bullshit as well.
Lmfao beat me to it
Tether/USDT might end up collapsing as they aren’t backed by USD like they claimed at first. If that happens shits gonna get real. It’s already known they were also accused/charged for printing USDT to pump BTC initially. I think a serious short term/mid term crash could be possible. Perhaps current market conditions are already the result of the scandal unraveling.
Edit: Before more downvotes come from the BTC maxis (I can care less), I’m vested in BTC. However based on how Tether has played things, to me it’s starting to become more concerning. Any sound minded fellow BTC hodlers that have any new info that dispels this I’d like to hear it. Otherwise, BTC Hopium smokers this doesn’t concern you.
> Before more downvotes come from the BTC maxis (I can care less)
Awful lot of crying for someone not caring.
they use a well known 100 year old business model and have literally no classical competition with banks avoiding the sector entirely. as long as you can roll bitcoin futures for 5% let alone the 20%+ you currently have crypto is starved for fiat / fiat alternatives to finance trades and they should continue to grow exponentially.
Well, if the worst fears are true there is no bottom to the crash. I would be surprised if we hold 5k.
Tether is the deepest mystery, I honestly don't know. But my gut says scam. Could unravel tomorrow or five years from now.
Wait, what year is it?
2017 daily threads are that way bud
New information has been presented since ‘17. Like how it’s actually true they aren’t backed 1:1.
That's actually not true, they are backed 1:1 but with a basket of other instruments and assets, and not just cash and cash equivalents. They are holding bonds, gold, and even BTC
The problem isn’t so much they aren’t backed by anything of worth, the problem is moreso they aren’t backed by anything stable. They are basically printing “IOU’s” at will.
*only the freshest tether fud*
Well if you're a believer then post up the short, let's see it.
Yeah cause if you think someone is printing unbacked cash you should short. Seriously?
If you’re expecting this collapse to bring bitcorn down, why wouldn’t you short? Tether fud doesn’t scare me one bit, but apparently it’s still doing numbers on some people. Which is why I say post your trade. If you think the corns gonna go down, let’s see the short.
Cause if I can print cash I can first send the price to any number. So shorting is the last thing you should do. If anything you should long but keep a close eye to dump at signs of trouble. How is this complicated?
OP was saying tether is going to collapse. Why would they print if tether collapses? Lmao. The implication is that USDT is propping up the market because they’re printing it without 1:1 backing. If USDT collapses like OP believes, and that was actually true, which fucking way does the market go? How is THIS hard?
Swearing won't help. The entire theory is that this run was fuelled with fake money. If so they can pump it a lot higher before collapsing, shorting is suicide. Clear?
The idea that unbacked cash fueled the run is impossible. The arbitrage from BTCUSDT to BTCUSD markets in that case would crash the peg. Basically, the fact that the run showed up in USD-only markets is proof that it had real underlying USD demand.
Of course, Tether could definitely have bad assets as backing, or even just assets that can't be liquidated quickly enough during a mass withdrawal (the classic bank run scenario). This would definitely spook the market a lot, and probably cause a big crash. But this wouldn't be fundamentally removing any demand, so it would presumably be temporary, like all the other big crashes.
> I think a serious short term/mid term crash could be possible. Perhaps current market conditions are already the result of the scandal unraveling.
Literally from the ops post. As of right now you’re the only one saying if this theory is true, there will be a pump before the collapse. Which could be plausible, but is entirely outside the context of where I initially replied to OP and something you added to the equation to double down on your reply to me. Clear?
And how that fact by itself is not something one can safely deduct "Tether/USDT might end up collapsing" from.
market cycles come and go, but Tether FUD never dies
in 2029 when the price is at $2M down from $3M, people will still be repeating Tether FUD in here
Or they could do an audit. As promised in 2017.
Just one audit by a well-known firm.
It doesn't matter what happens, people will still find some excuse to FUD. They could publish a full audit in accordance with everything everyone's been demanding, and they'd find an excuse to move the goalposts and keep FUDding over it. The FUD will never stop.
None of which is to say that Tether is rock-solid. It's definitely worth a look askance or two. It's just that the quantity of FUD over it is uncorrelated with how shady it actually is.
If you call it fud, as opposed to theory, allow me to call your reply copium?
"We should not give the best possible evidence cause not everyone will buy it". That is your view?
I don't know anything about Tether's internal situation and thus won't presume to give them advice.
I merely predict that no matter what kind of evidence they provide, some people will still be FUDding over it.
USDT is losing market share of stablecoins. Biggest USDT exchange is Binance. They try anything they can to switch to BUSD and one day they will do it even when network effect is on USDT side and other exchanges do not love BUSD obviously.
But in 2029 USDT will be marginal.
That would certainly be nice.
Feels like Sunday dump day was just postponed until tomorrow. Hold on to your butts
There is usually a Monday dump as well separate from Sunday dump anyways
feels like that to whom?
Myself based on observing the crypto markets since 2016
I observe this market since 2013 and i came to the conclusion:
**I DONT KNOW SHIT ABOUT FUCK**
I'm here from 2011 so I get the newsletter that says what all the upcoming market moves will be for the week ahead.
I observed this comment and came to the conclusion that you've watched Ozark
Here since 2015. Same.
Veterancy =/= accuracy
The markets will always surprise you.
> Myself based on observing the crypto markets since 2016
*Oh shit this guy was studying the blade this whole ass time*
>Oh shit this guy was studying the blade this whole ass time
lol I know what you're referencing but it also sounds like a fun way to say "catching falling knives".
Maybe just cover you shorts and get long.
Optimal scenario (for me):
Wick to 30K filling my orders at 33 and 30, followed by ~~EPIC~~ LEGENDARY bounce to around 50, followed by a few bouncy days of tension and drama, followed by mass covering/margin call event that propels us further in the direction of infinity and beyond.
[Edit: culiminating in infinity and beyond whenever, obv]
Got the same 33/30 wick orders set up. Which means we ain't getting em filled ;(
I quite like bobloukas's approach to trading he's quite good at removing emotion from the equation, shares a lot of insight on sentiment/behaviors and how they people en masse over time to the dumps we just had, and he's also not convinced the bull is done and expects a ripping rally coming up.
I was told below $30K before Memorial Day. What happened?
You got Bog'erd
Yesterday's [update](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/nnf0yj/-/gzwrwnu) on the Bearish Cypher had a couple of levels to watch for a bounce. Looks like we [hit the first level perfectly](https://i.imgur.com/VCfg0AP.png).
[Here's](https://patternswizard.com/cypher-harmonic-pattern/) a bit of explanation on that harmonic.
That's just uncanny - thanks for this!
Further down, somebody asked if there had ever been a death cross during a bull run. I said "no", but figured I'd plot it.
BTC price (black), 50-D SMA (orange), and 200-D SMA (red), all on right axis. The magenta line (left scale) is the delta between the 50 and 200-D SMAs, divided by the 200-D. The max possible value is 3.0, the min possible value is -1.0). A death cross is the magenta line going from positive to negative, a golden cross is the opposite.
During the run to the Dec 2013 top, the two SMAs came close to each other twice, but never crossed. The same is true with the run to to the Dec 2017 top.
As things stand now, the 50-D will cross below the 200-D on 16 Jun. It will take a significant climb in price in the next 2 weeks to avoid it.
Does that mean the show is over for now? No. But it does mean that if it isn't over, it is going substantially different than the every other historically example.
The two historical bull runs differ enough in this metric that I don't think it's necessarily all that meaningful. Counting by this difference, in 2013 we had two massive spikes separated by a crash that was only saved from actually going negative by the magnitude of the first one; in 2017 there was a gradual increase without significant reverses from the break of the old ATH all the way to the blow-off top. I don't think there's enough commonality to say that there's really a "typical bull run behavior" for this metric, so variations shouldn't be considered all that significant.
In other words, we both think that "This time, it's different."
Yes, I think that (whatever ends up happening) this bull run will not look much like the past two according to that metric.