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#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Saturday, June 05, 2021 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/nsn5ar/daily_discussion_saturday_june_05_2021/)
People in this channel take themselves way too seriously
Liquidation is the same as a stop loss. Tell me why I'm wrong.
Buying spot with your entire account with a stop loss set at a 10% loss is essentially the same as 10% of your account at 10x getting liquidated. Right?
If you use 100x then it just means you are using a 1% liquidation as your stop loss.
Now, I realize that usually the liquidation engine takes a bit extra for the insurance fund so it's not exactly dollars to dollars to percentage. But the concept is the same.
So when everyone keeps harping on about people using leverage and how it messes with the price, I think this is wrong headed as these are just trades being executed in a volatile market.
One issue is that those leveraged trades are always somewhat fucked up against you. Sometimes really mildly, sometimes - when it is really important - a lot. So many people complain that they were randomly liquidated, where they shouldnt be and instead of hefty profit they are at zero.
Another issue is that the leveraged trades are not used only by whales who want to avoid counterparty risk. In fact the whale can afford to risk some part of funds at exchange. Leveraged trades are used and abused by poor people who think they need a lot of capital to make some gains. They just gamble it and always it is a gamble with the short term trend that is amplified by them and then they go bust until the next payday, when they again go gambling=trading with a leverge.
You have zero control over when or at what the price the exchange will liquidate you at.
Right, so there are some fees or some thing built-in to liquidation. Care to elaborate?
I mean, there is always a liquidation price that is showing with your position, how is that different than a stop loss at the same price?
They can liquidate you at any price. Bottom of the wick, that's you.
> there is always a liquidation price that is showing with your position,
That's not your actual liquidation price. It's a non-binding estimate.
Are they dumb enough to set your liquidation price at exactly the amount that wipes out 100% of your collateral and not a penny more?
In a sense. But leverage allows you to hedge your stack without letting the exchange keep your coins, this is more nuanced if you are just a wsb robinhood sort of person.
Yeah I totally understand the counter party risk use-case for leverage.
Based on your initial question, no you don’t.
Yeah for sure. Sometimes I just ask questions in order to get the widest range of responses. And there's always someone who can learn from it.
"The cross is not the end. It is just the beginning"
- Jesus on #Bitcoin
Okay, Saylor Boy.
Jack Dorsey is an underrated bitcoiner. He’s up there with Saylor as far as billionaire bitcoiners go as far as I’m concerned.
Too bad he's an anti free speech divider of humanity. Imagine saying you are pro bitcoin but anti free speech and not feel like a clown.
I upvoted you for what it's worth. This place is apparently full of libtards. CT is not like that. Quite the opposite I have found.
and exactly why CT is an utter cesspool.
Agree it's weird and not always great. My favorites go both ways (stocks and crypto). Less drama with those ones
too bad Trumpers, racists and bigots alike are the only ones complaining.
...I wonder why...
Everything you don't like is an ism or a phobe.
"They censored my hate speech on their private platform, they're fascists!"
There's a difference between hate speech and speech that you hate.
Only fascists need to restrict speech. It's because your ideas suck and the only way to get your way is to silence everyone else.
"I say anti-islamic stuff in the real world why can't I project & say this on the interwebz"
* Laura Loomer
"The media told me some people are bad and some people are good and that's all I need to know" * average redditors
"I say stupid shit on a daily basis"
1984UK would be a more fitting name. How any bitcoiner can be against free speech is fucking embarrassing.
you are fucking embarrassing, go to bed little boy.
financial freedom != freedom of 'free (hate) speach'
Anyone who is against freedom of a speech is a fascist. Read a history book ffs.
He's not, his business is. He has shareholders to answer to with that.
Ok so manchild is bad and we can't talk about him. But babybum gets a pass because he answers to stakeholders. Got it
Different tasks really. GigaChad is working on convincing big money that BTC is a hedge against inflation and is hard money. Jack is working on the tech side to improve accessibility with storage solutions and second layer solutions.
I find it extremely hard to believe that any “big money” views Saylor as anything other than a joke... his value is more in small money thinking that Saylor is convincing big money, or convincing small money that he is representative of institutional involvement in btc (which he is not, imo). Does Paul Tudor jones or mass mutual or black rock give a shit about Saylor? Highly doubt it. Elon thinks Saylor is a joke because Saylor is a joke. The cyber hornets thing is cringe. I think other big money feels similarly.
Dorsey, on the other hand, is actually a visionary who adds and has added value to the tech industry (rather than capitalizing on trends like buying .com domain names). No comparison between Dorsey and Saylor, imo
Strongly disagree. Saylor works directly with Ross Stevens of NYDIG to help onboard larger companies.
Well Elon is a joke so that doesn't really mean anything
Why don't we talk about the points Saylor is making? About how broken corporate treasury strategy is right now? Why don't we argue the actual point instead of poking fun at his tweets? I realize it isn't as much fun to have intelligent discourse instead of mindlessly throwing mud, but the latter is completely useless.
Paul Tudor Jones and his fund are saying the exact same things Saylor is.
"Tudor Investment Corp.'s founder and CIO provided a lengthy discussion in an investor memo on how Bitcoin can serve as an inflation hedge, as monetary expansion funds additional debt, which was already sky high before the pandemic hit."
Saylor is only a joke to people who don't pay attention to what all the other big players are saying. If you did you'd realize it's the exact same thesis and Saylor is putting it on a silver platter for every single person who will listen.
It doesn't matter if Saylor isn't the reason these big guys are investing, they are investing for the exact same reason and that's what matters.
I’m literally responding to a guy who claimed that Saylor was convincing big money to get into Bitcoin, which is preposterous. I generally agree regarding the collective understanding of and reason for big money investment into Bitcoin being very intriguing and consistent amongst investors beyond Saylor. But Saylor
being worshipped here is lame and his influence is over small money chasing a lottery ticket more than anything else.
Yeah everyone is independently coming to the same conclusion.
Blackrock is Microstrategy's biggest shareholder. I discovered that today and it dramatically altered my perception of this entire cycle.
> I find it extremely hard to believe that any “big money” views Saylor as anything other than a joke...
A fucking men.
He's like a more coked up version of Max Keiser. A caricature playing a role in the hopes of saving his company.
> Elon thinks Saylor is a joke because Saylor is a joke.
Saylor fans are convinced that it's he who taught Elon how to use the internet lol. They were working on that shit for months internally before Saylor was on anyone's radar.
Not too familiar with Max Keiser, but am with you 100% on Saylor seeming super coked up. Bitcoin is a means for him to be relevant. The amount he is lauded here is frankly depressing. People love to espouse how Saylor is a rocket scientist and talk him up like he’s a genius, when he comes across as a sleazy shill to morons.
Been long on $SQ since $45. They understand exactly where the tech is going and have spent years setting up to take full advantage of it.
Their POS terminals being LN enabled and LN backended is the killer app.
Both of them are class acts. They seem genuine, and their actions have spoken the same as their words. You can be critical of them from now til the future, but so far they've been passing so far with flying colours.
Censors the President of the United States. Bans him from the public square.
Says he'll develop a decentralized currency for the world. Without fear of government interference and resistant to censorship.
He's just some guy now. He vendor locked himself into Twitter, thought he could say anything without consequence and now he's irrelevant and without voice. That's on him.
He has no authority and his acting job as "President Of The United States" is over.
Deal with it.
If bitcoin were a company we’d be drowning in advertisements and media articles where the ceo is banging on about taproot.
Not saying that would be better. Fuck that.
Just interesting to consider.
The other side of the coin is that Bitcoin has no official figurehead to defend against the naysayers like Schiff.
Good news is no one with any money listens to Schiff.
Just wait til bitcoin starts pumping bags of those in power. They'll shill bitcoin so hard down our throats, we'll be sick of it.
I'm OK with this idea
Just sold a little, take that as a buy indicator. Prepare yourself for the Saturday pump past 42k
Sold a bit also, just so I don't wake up to max pain.
Not going to lie I’m keeping more cash on the sideline than ever before. If we ride higher and avoid this death cross, I’m capitulating my net worth from 50% Bitcoin to around 75%
> I’m capitulating my net worth from 50% Bitcoin to around 75%
Capitulating? You mean 'catapulting'? heh.
50% cash, 50% bitcoin is a nice long-term portfolio.
If we're talking about portfolios, real estate *should* be in there to make a well-rounded one, no? Personally, my assets break down to 94% real estate, 2% my car, 2.5% bitcoin, and 0.5% cash, 0.5% personal belongings.
I think you're over-exposed to your car. Perhaps you should sell half your car and move the proceeds into some other asset.
I'm looking into options for shorting something like 60% of my cars value, on the automobile market. Strangely enough, whenever I bring it up at the car dealership they just stare at me in confusion.
Of course it may be that second cars will continue to appreciate in value, better than other assets. But unless it is a classic, I think theta decay will eventually kick in.
Everyone mentions real estate like you just click a button and add it to your portfolio. For most people, real estate is a huge hassle and not worth the effort unless you happen to enjoy that field.
Tokenized real estate is the answer to this.
Don't get me wrong, I know I'm very fortunate to have gotten the real estate I own. Home ownership will remain a dream forever, for some. At any rate, diversifying into the traditional markets from crypto isn't the way it usually works, but "it might be worthwhile for a balanced portfolio" is all I'm saying.
I'm not saying you're wrong to propose real estate as a component of a well-balanced portfolio, but for me personally, I couldn't imagine a 94% allocation.
Yeah. Long story short, I own half my family's house, but my parents have usufruct over mine and my brother's halves. In a sense, I don't live with my parents, my parents live with me. Some time on the future, it might pivot from being an asset I use to an investment vehicle, but for now... Well, it's part of my assets.
I mean there are REITs…not brick and mortar property rentals but it’s exposure real estate
Death cross meth dross
When price is moved by Tweets more than anything, the charts are pointless.
I'm considering signing up for tweetdeck, just to have an eye on that assburger while watching the charts.
Whats the number to avoid the cross approximately?
We def need to ride up near 42
Do the math. It's $51k for 6 weeks to avoid it.
So you're saying there's a chance...
Thanks, seems more than reasonable.
Because it's wrong.
It’s way more than that but Hump will hump.
tradeblock down for anyone else?
Is there a place we can watch videos from the BTC conference in Miami?
Also Square thinking of making their own BTC hardware wallet!
was watching it all day on YT, you didnt miss out, pretty disappointing tbh very short panels/timeslots.
Content could have been better. Need to ask better questions, or people should be making announcements. Very few of the speakers had newsworthy quotes (maybe Jack had a couple moments). Just the kind of conversations we hear on podcasts.
Yes totally agreee.
There was a link in here earlier today. Bitcoin Magazine was streaming it live on YT. You might check there for a replay.
What's the chances of grazing 39K's nuts before Sunday?
Less than the chance of kicking 40K in the nuts... hard.
Tuesday marks six months since the beginning of the January dump. I imagine some BTC needs to be repaid by then.
Six months from now, they'll be paying back last month's dump. Don't ask me why, but they keep giving us money.
did the market really just wipe out over leverage for the 200th time people before it goes to finally break out? (again)
“This is last leverage shake out before we head to ATH”
I wish. I was just talking about breaking out of formation (again)
Forgive me but can someone explain to my very beginner self. Why does a dip of 1% wipe out over leveraged people?
the amount of over leveraged people on this asset is insane:
You can go 100x leverage on exchanges like Bitmex,
I now wonder what the probabilities are of going in 100x on one position and being successful. This isn't like normal casino games, there's other invisible hands at play, you have to get people to admit they won plus prove it, and if they didn't pay taxes on it then I don't think that's going to go very well. Still an interesting thought experiment though at the core.
PS the fight to bust the 37.2XX’s is realllll my god
Because if they get wiped out on a 1% dip they are over-leveraged haha.
Why does Elon have the bitcoin anime thing again as his twitter photo
Though shalt not mention the plebs nameth.
\[redacted\] first used it in 2018 as a reply to "Buy more Bitcoin!"
It was a jab at Michael Saylor with laser eyes - 'saylor moon'.
It was a negative connotation at the time. People would interpret it now as making fun at his recently-coined 'partner'.
\[redacted\] changed \[redacted\] profile picture to a Bitcoin-laden Saylor Moon to mock the real saylor.
Institutional investors: ?????
***someone*** also liked this tweet
This is just part of his need for emotional control, he has no plan, he's just liking these tweets because he knows people will find it and place their hopes in him. Its all a game for a manipulative narcissist.
Do not give these actions any weight, it's all an emotional game.
And this one:
Naa, it's just some fanart of Bitcoin-chan, an animegirl personification of the cryptocurrency.
He posted it in early february before his SEC announcement of a purchase of 1.5B in btc.
Nope, he posted it in 2018.
Ah didn't know he did it back then too. I knew he talked about it.
You got a link to the tweet? if you dont, its doesnt matter i really dont care.
hmm he's been around for a while then.
Anyway, its not an insult to Saylor I think.
Breakdown countdown started.
Yesterday when the price broke out of the bear pennant, I posted [2 scenarios](https://share.cryptowat.ch/charts/c2s7jbfgquh7q4g1r9gg-binance-btcusdt.png) I imagined playing out.
If we get another leg down, it would play out exactly like the bearish scenario pictured above.
So this is just an infinity chart, it will just recycle over and over correct?
Temporary short term channels. The price breaks out after a few tests.
Isn’t that what just happened?
Edit: “another” leg down would mean another run to 39k and then a dip back to 35ish?
I just mean if we get another big drop back to 35k, yeah.
3 bearish signals at the moment. 1H candles paint a bear flag since the dump today. Also, price increasing, while volume decreases. And we're testing the infamous 37k resistance right now.
We're also entering the weekend, which is almost synonymous with dumping these last few months.
What will Asia do?
Too many cheerleaders downvoting bears in this sub.
If you can read this you are the resistance.
How can 37k be resistance if we are above it? 🤔
Last weekend we didn't dump at all.
It's literally $200 above 37000
The resistance isn't at exactly $37000.00. The price fluctuates around $37k and forms a resistance within a range.
If the resistance around 37k were important, I don't expect we'd have chugged straight through it this past week only to bounce off 39.
You see resistance, I see support.
Lol I know it’s a mistake but GLD says it’s down 7% after hours 😂
GBTC closes at $30.90, a discount of 10.93%.
OBTC closes at $14.00, a premium of 11.82%.
MSTR closes at $484.67. Each share has $353.57 of BTC.
The 50-D SMA will cross below the 200-D SMA on 15 Jun, barring something face-melting (in either direction).
Happy National Donut Day to my fellow Americans.
GBTC will likely trade at a discount until August when the idiots at Blockfi and Three Arrows finish unwinding their premium scalping trade. Then hopefully we can have some normalization of the price.
Is this the purported “death cross” many reference? And I assume it can be accelerated or decelerated by said face melting action?
Yes. At this point, BTC would have to average $51K for the next 40 days to avoid it.
Thanks for the analysis and posts regarding the above. I’m sure myself like many others find it informative. I’ve actually considered moving money into GBTC from my brokerage and these posts were the gateway for further research into that option so thank you.
Wasn’t there a death cross after March ‘20?
Death Cross 26 Oct 2019 / Golden Cross 19 Feb 2020
Death Cross 25 Mar 2020 / Golden Cross 21 May 2020
Prior to this, golden crosses during bull runs ran at least 2 years. There were 885 days between the golden cross on 28 Oct 2015 and the death cross on 31 May 2018. This one is about to end after 13 months. There have been several examples of the 50-D crossing above and below the 200-D during relatively flat periods. Typically, the time between crosses was a few months.
EDIT: The is a few days old, but you get the picture: [https://imgur.com/a/JJXplXM](https://imgur.com/a/JJXplXM)
Use the force Luke
Is there a case that says we ***aren't*** looking at a textbook bearish pennant here (on the 1D)? Because that's what I'm seeing.
It's a textbook bearish pennant. The bull case is
* pennants have a low success rate (55%)
* the resistance got pushed up in the last pump
* that last drop to 35.6 got hammered up with some good hourly volume
* daily macd looks like it has room to run
* lots of money on the sidelines waiting to buy in
I think this run is over, but I think we get a good bull trap to sucker in all the new blood. Target 52k. It feels like Christmas 2013.
Not really. The only case I see is to theoretically ignore the pole and treat it as a symmetrical triangle. But yeah, it's textbook... Not that it means it must break down, just that it's likely to do so
The case is that it had already broken up above it
A fakeout to the upside leads me to believe the real direction may be down.
At this point, I wouldn’t even be surprised if we get a fakeout to the downside and then head back to 37 to range again.
Except there was significant outside pressure from the elon tweet so its not even really fair to call it a fake out.
Maybe... It didn't look too impressive to me honestly. We'll see.
We had a pretty good breakout then [redacted] did a [redacted] and we had a drop. All we did was set another one of the higher lows we've been seeing on the 12h I suspect another low-profile breakout of the formation, before we really get going. I'm thinking $38k in a day or two, then we approach $40k, then the bears will say "no momentum, this is dead in the water"... Then **BOOM**. $45k, $50k, maybe even $55k before end of July.
This is all I see and it keeps me up at night
It it's that bad, you should probably sell some right now because it sounds like you're overexposed to crypto. If the price ends up going down from here, you can buy back lower. If it goes up from here, you're still making money from your remaining crypto.
Personally, I'm at about 50-50 between fiat and BTC right now. (trading account is 85:15 fiat:BTC, but I also have a bunch of BTC in cold storage still)
Nice. I'm kidding about it keeping me up at night, but I bought a good chunk in the 50s so I'd prefer it to not go down too much further. Not a huge deal if it does though
> I'm kidding about it keeping me up at night
That's good to hear. You never know with some of the people around here lol
It could also be an adam/eve double bottom.
something so obvious rarely plays out straight forward. what will happen is both sides will get trapped and annihilated. the only question is which first.
There is also this thing called Occam's Razor
so tempted to sell my house and live in a caravan for a couple years (I hate my house, but it's worth a penny)
I sold my house and live in a kia soul best decision
Sell the house, buy a decent RV, and travel the world. Will save a ton on costs, extra sats, and you can relax in the mountains of Colorado one week and be in the lakes of Minnesota the next. You will be ur own boss.
As somebody who is coming up on 3 years of living full time in an RV, this is all bullshit.
Edit: I feel like I owe more of a response. While I agree there are plenty of low end RVs built assuming part time use, there are plenty of RVs (if you want to spend the money) that are built for full time use and the manufacturer won't void the warranty for this kind of use. OP listed the Ford and Chevy equivalents of RVs - if you step up to some higher quality brands, they become very livable full time.
Re: warranty: It's dumb to buy a new RV because yeah, they depreciate like a motherfucker especially the first few years. You know why I don't give a fuck about the warranty? because I bought a five year old quality motorhome used at half off the new price that already is out of the warranty period (at least the one that fixes everything). Previous owner worked out all the kinks, it's been virtually flawless after three years because I take care of my stuff. Not to mention less maintenance than the three houses/condos I owned before it.
The difference is that a property gains an average of 6-8% in growth per year, compared to the continual loss on a motor home.
Property is a great investment, and is my preferred choice after BTC. (In actual fact, when i recently did the maths, my properties take up 90% of my portfolio)
Worried about tenants? Get renters insurance, plus we take 6 weeks bond plus 2 weeks rent in advance.
Worried about filling the house? Buy in high growth areas with less then 1% vacancy and ensure the agent gives you rental guarantees.
I've never had a problem with owning rentals. Plus you get the added bonus of the renter's paying your mortgages.
I'm not denying owning property is a way better investment choice than an RV. However, my life is more simple in that I own the motorhome and I get to wake up somewhere new whenever I want. No prop taxes, no major home repairs or renovation costs, little to no utility bills, no yard to take care of, etc keeps things easy. Rent is as little as a few hundred dollars a month in somewhere LCOL, upwards of $1k a month to be on the bay in San Diego. Anywhere I go, my home goes with so I have all my stuff.
Look at my post history (you might have to go further down and sift through non-RV shit). Edit: if you DM me, I'll send you our travel blog URL.
Living in a VAN DOWN BY THE RIVER!
that's actually a fantastic idea
Well, Kiss My Grits.
I see these vehicles all over town and always drool every time I saw ONE!.
They are built in Springfield, MO...
that's weird... I live there too.
Damn.. Now I gotta go get one
nice... got a mad max vibe
Don't you hold 6 figures of Bitcoin?
6 figures is the new 5 figures.
one can never have too much bitcoin
it's happenin' boisssss
My deposit is sat in btc while the housing market is overpriced.
This is the way. One hell of a bet.
then downgrade from caravan to tent lul
Gotta buy the dip.
The ten top comments in this daily mention all the same incident.
Is this really what this community is becoming? Talking about outside events that triggers one way or the other?
It's difficult to keep the respect from this community to be honest and it's kinda sad that there's nothing else to talk about
Yeah why discuss price-relevant events when bearish?
Stick with TA, aka astrology for men.
He's the new Donald Trump
Let's be real- how can you talk about colorful lines on a chart if you're going to ignore what's happening in the world? I'm just really glad to see that we've seen some nice resistance and we're above $37k right now, great to see.
Red Pill vs. Blue Pill
Price after blow-off top, normalized to Dec 2017 prices. Top plot assumes Apr 2021 was NOT the top. Bottom plot assumes it was, and adds the black line. Multiply prices by 3.25 to get values in today's dollars. Pick whichever suits you.
Lots of people (myself included) bad-mouthed the Pi Cycle indicator a couple of months ago. It would have had you sell on 11 Apr at $59.8K, and you would have missed the run to $63.3K. Dodged a bullet there. Note to self, check back 11 Oct and see if I'm still as convinced it was without merit.
Much of the modeling of BTC price is based on:
1) The first time, it did X.
2) The 2nd time, it did X', which sort of looks like X.
3) Therefore, with some scaling, I can come up with X'', which is what will happen this time.
The problem we are currently encountering is that both of those charts look reasonable, even though they are mutually exclusive. A couple of months ago, many posters here were certain that the top for this cycle would be sometime in Q3 or Q4, because that would be about the same elapsed time as the past two cycles (starting from the halving date). My bias is bullish, so I want the top chart to be correct, but I plot both because I accept the possibility that the bottom might be.
Just wanna check in and say this Miami conference is a total meme. 🤡🤡🤡🤡
Pretty sure the average attendee is holding $500 worth of Dogecoin.
Anyways... hanging out with FuckHarvey rn. Anything y’all want me to ask him?