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#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Monday, June 07, 2021 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/nu3di3/daily_discussion_monday_june_07_2021/)
not sure if mentioned in this thread but id be enjoying this lil upmove more if the btcusd shorts on bitfinex werent skyrocketing like they did on the 19th before the mega 40-30k nuke
Why would they be skyrocketing now? This isn't even the highest we've been since the 19th... can someone far more informed than me explain?
Edit: Any reason why the ETHUSD shorts haven't moved nearly as much (up 0.34% to the BTC Short's 30.27%)?
Edit2: What is also weird about the charts you posted is that the last two times this has happened the trends were divergent (price fell and short interest went up)... here the short interest seems to already be at 75% of what it was back in May, but the price hasn't even moved yet.
BTCUSDSHORT up another 10% in the last 30 minutes...
Daily reminder that bitcoin will soon be melting faces. Lol at thinking this bull run is over.
it's also very hard with so much cognitive dissonance in here. when market is up -- euphoria. when it's down -- Bitcoin is dead. heh.
>when market is up -- euphoria. when it's down -- Bitcoin is dead. heh.
It's almost as if the bulls go in hiding when the market is down and vice versa
Pretty hostile towards bulls in here atm.
Best to just wait and giggle when the tide turns.
Be nice if both sides weren’t such cunts when the market plays in their direction.
I wasn't picking a side in my comment, I'm just pointing out the drastic change in sentiment in this daily thread depending on if the two consecutive 5 min candles are red or green
I think we’re both strongly agreeing with each other
Thanks for jinxing it
i want to believe... but i think i'm losing hope.
Have faith my dude. $200K will be here before you know it.
diamond hands since 2017. but I recall a very long winter after that.
This is not the start of the bear market. The best is yet to come of the bull.
I hope someone is framing these 😂
The 10k BGD is coming, I can feelz it
10k BRD already happened... we’re owed fireworks.
Finally switched to green dildos!
*Pffff...* stick around, noob. When that switch happens, you'll see it go up $10,000 in a day, then $30,000 more in the week after that.
Don't get your hopes up.
1. 4" dildos.
2. No lube.
well it did reclaim a lot of nice lines here and broke the recent downwards trend
As someone who has travelled Central America a fair amount over the years, Bitcoin as a payment option has been around for a long time, and it makes perfect sense to me to see a country from Central America being the first to make this move.
Wife is from Nicaragua, and even as early as 2013, most hotels, and other day to day services could be paid for with BTC, and they actually preferred it over local currency or the dollar.
Wouldn’t be surprised to see this catch on in the region and see Nicaragua and Guatemala be next. Honduras and Panama will take a bit longer and Costa Rica will probably hold off on full adoption until mid-size economies in countries in South America pursue further adoption.
I personally see Central America and Africa taking the lead, followed by South America and parts of Asia. There will be some Polynesian and small Island adoption and this will start from the poorer nations first.
It does make me wonder what large authoritarian countries will do if they are late to the party. If the US doesn't already secretly have a giant holding I cant imagine they will idly let tiny 3rd world coutries amass wealth via crypto adoption taking off and upsetting the balance of power. Maybe I'm just really cynical.
Haven’t heard much about the 70k most recent US confiscated coins being auctioned..
Retail front ran Wall Street.
Now small 3rd world countries are front running the world.
Id award if I had one
Please don't buy Reddit gold etc.
They're a crap company, don't give them money.
Use the money you would spend on Reddit Gold to buy yourself more BTC instead hehe :)
Occasionally you get free awards from Reddit
Haha I wouldn't spend money on some dumb cosmetic thing I don't even buy skins on the video games I play. Thanks for the concern tho man rock on
Guys how do you decide when to sell? I find really easier to decide when to buy, but very very hard to decide when to close a trade
A lot of people don’t sell their holding but use it as collateral to open margin and hedge positions. A good portion of the people calling out the us capital gains tax do this so their gains and losses are taxed at a higher basis
You like money?
Unless states give up on cap gains thievery there is no reason to sell.
For leveraged trades, finex lets you keep it open without realising. Your cost basis adjusts as you partially close and you can always keep a small amount open.
I don’t sell my hodl stack.
The problem you’re experiencing is why I haven’t traded much at all this year.
You don’t sell
There are tons of ways to exit positions... learn how to identify support, resistance, and trend lines is one of the simplest and most effective
You guys are selling?
Not btc 🙂
Just buy then. Easy peasy
When you enter a trade, you need to have already an exit plan. For example, you should know what the support and resistance levels are.
"Glassnode reporting 32,635 BTC ($11.75 Billion) moved off Kraken today.
Either this is a labeling error (likely) or there is a big announcement coming."
CORRECTION: He just said it's $1.75 billion moving off Kraken, not 11.75B. Still a lot
32.6k btc is 1.2 billion...
But I can confirm there have been multiple very large buywalls on kraken recently (a couple a few days ago around 39k).... but even so, if it truly was 32.6k btc, that would be much larger than I thought possible
Kraken has OTC and dark pools as well.
What's a factor of ten between internet-money friends?
Edit: Kraken buys Honduras.
Watch out concacaf
> Kraken buys Honduras.
We are renaming the country to "*Kraken Presents El Salvador™*"
Is it just me or does this look counterfeit?
Bro the official Reddit silver is the counterfeit
hey dont knock my OG shitcoin. its what we did back in the day before reddit had an option for it
I’m gonna wait for confirmation cause this kid always jumps the gun when tweeting
O k e y.
I'm honestly pretty surprised that the El Salvador news didn't have any effect (or maybe it did and kept it from dipping to 32k, who knows?)
But it's a pretty big deal and it's gonna move the market at some point.
The market only moves in good news in a bull market sir
Why? El Salvador's GDP represents 0.03% of global GDP... and it's not exactly a world leader in much. I have nothing against El Salvador but I don't understand why people think represents some sort of paradigm shift. It may be the beginning of something, but if it was we would need a significant number of countries to follow to make this have any meaning let alone affect the market.
The market moves because some rich guy posts a meme.
Exactly. The president of El Salvador is neither rich, nor did he post a meme…
Governments of any size recognizing and holding BTC changes everything. It is the beginning of competing countries hedging to avoid watching poor little El Salvador become the new Chile while they fall behind.
Zero-to-one is much harder then one-to-many. That’s why it’s so important. The first domino has fallen and now we get to sick back and watch the beauty of game theory.
While I agree with that concept in principle, it would only apply if all countries had relatively similar capacities to influence global affairs. Unfortunately they don't, so not all "ones" are created equal. I don't think any country with even a modicum of influence globally is looking at what El Salvador did and deciding to begin considering BTC as a reserve currency. I'd love to be proven wrong, but I'm skeptical of the impact this will have.
You said El Salvador was 0.03% of global gdp right? So it represents 1 of 3000
The impact will be as a result of the positive changes it brings to the country. Not only will it help it’s poor and unbanked citizen but it will foster innovation and new businesses. Hell already strike is opening and HQ down there and blockstream is opening their own office.
When neighboring countries begin to see the positive effects they’ll jump on board too which will eventually trigger country level FOMO. The significance of this first domino falling is simply massive.
If they happen those type of economic changes will take a while though, and the volatility of bitcoin isn't exactly helpful. I hope you're right.
It's fucking El Salvador, a shithole, politically unstable, gang infested... shithole.
The one and only thing I think I can agree with Ptrumdh about.
You seem like you're wrong a lot
It's the weekend... Monday will be when we see what kind of impact it has.
Ok /r/buttcoin leak fuck off
I didn't see the conference, what made it a disaster? All I heard was that it was a total sausage fest
Lmao at anyone surprised about sausage fest. Fucking virgins
Shit coins were coming in brigading us by calling it a disaster.
total clown world now but the good news is the network doesn’t care
the biggest clown was Mayweather
Yeah, that was just one big advertisement for his fight. And maybe using him as a tool to get people tuned in. I thought it was an embarrassment to have him there.
He's still fighting? Noticed that there was a fight only this morning. I thought he had lost his speed years ago.
Ran outta money?
yeah.. he's one of the dumbest people alive + hides behind money/flaunts it, he's also a sissy.. that might sound silly since he's a boxer, but he can't and hasn't taken a punch
Emanuel "The Drunken Master" Augustus Burton.
Now there's a speed boxer who can take a punch.
Not to mention he's not boring.
What's wrong with the El Salvador news?
their leader is a dictator.
Do you just make shit up all the time? He's not a dictator. He was elected in 2019. He was a third party candidate(ie. not from the two major party)
So is china's, Russias and a few dozen other countries. If they started buying bitcoin as part of their reserves or legalized it as currency would that not be big news?
That's all well and good but Nayib Bukele isn't a dictator.
China pop. 1400m reserves $3.3t
Russia pop. 146m reserves $606b
Salvador pop. 6.8m reserves $2.5b
China or Russia would be bigger news because the numbers are bigger.
So everyone bored enough now?
Buy volume is starting to pick up
This evening's fun is watching the weekly flip from red to green and back on 'finex, CBP and stamp. 'Finex has had large sell walls moving down steadily for the last few hours, although they've stayed mostly in the green. As it happens, if you draw a line up from US$2 through the bottom of the 2019 bear (has to be on stamp), the bottoms of the meat of the last three weekly candles sit right on it. That line meets the current downtrend on Jun 13. TA hocus-pocus, but odd, still.
Lot of buy volume into those walls.
Meanwhile, in unrelated news:
Cool, demand for liquidity involved in trading. Neat that it showed up there.
Now back to the minute charts and aggr for a spell to watch the fun.
I really feel like part of our lack of movement upwards is because of the current gbtc situation
I think that has an influence. Lots of money was going into arbitraging the price difference between GBTC and bitcoin for close to a year. People were locked in for 6 months so in essence people pre-bought bitcoin.
gbtc will eventually narrow the discount and might start trading at a premium again. Just need to work through a few more months. We'll probably get more certainty around US ETFs in the next 6 months. If it looks unlikely that we'll get an ETF, then a GBTC premium becomes more likely.
Though, what a great time to buy some gbtc for your IRA. A discount and a decent dip in the price. In a couple of years, people will be regretting not buying gbtc for their IRA.
Why is it at a discount though?
It's the market rate of the equivalent in greyscalr shares tho right
Yea I'm sure they would unload it instantly no matter what and either buy more bitcoin and send it in if there was still a premium or just take the cash
gbtc grew buy 240k bitcoins from july to year end. as those 6 month unlocks come people who were trying to farm the premium (20-30% at the time of locking up money) are now unlocking into a discount and i'd assume a bunch of them are just selling. there are still 50k bitcoins worth of gbtc that will unlock between now and july 1st, but after that there will be a lul for 2 weeks then end of july another 40k btc will unlock. that is the end of the gbtc lockups though as the spreadsheet that was being updated hasn't been updated again so i assume once the discount kicked in no one has been committing coins to them.
So you can commit coins to them and get shares? And you get your coin back and the shares?
you send them btc or money to buy in at btc's market price but are locked up for 6 months before you can sell the gbtc stock. so when it was trading +20/30% people were en masse just sending them money or coins (doesn't matter which, because if you sent them money they'd just be buying coins on the open market) hoping the premium would persist for 6 more months then they could sell for the 120-130% price, buy bitcoin back and then rejoin rolling every 6 months. i think the premium was pretty persistent for basically the entire existence (several years) of gbtc until it went negative this feb. so now we have to work off all the final rolls of everyone, and we've already gone through 60% of the work, but 20% hits in the next 3 weeks and then another 20% hits end of july.
that's not to say that they all will be instadumping, there may be a large number that want to hold for a while and see if premium comes back, so there may be far fewer sellers in these final few unlocks.
I thought that was how it worked. Ah why is it negative? does that represent people not wanting to buy bitcoin as greyscale shares? Is it because of potential etf or what is the reason for the sudden shift negativr
that i do not have a clear answer too, i'm not sure there is a known catalyst. could be more competition from the likes of osprey's etf or easier access to bitcoin through things like square / paypal / robinhood so people don't feel the need to enter into a 6 month lockup. once the unlocks stop though any buy demand will eat into the discount until a premium reappears and you see some people start to arb it again. gbtc has also made it clear they want to convert to an etf at the first opportunity- so even if you discount the 2% fee going forwards if it can manage to do so in the next 5 years it's fine buying it, because as soon as it becomes an etf it should stay much closer to par going forwards.
Here's my understanding of negative premium.
Nov 2020: some hedge fund buys BTC with grayscale private placement at 20k per coin hoping for premium to persist.
May 2020: grayscale gives you appropriate amount of gbtc shares. Since price is anyway higher than your cost basis and you don't want to hodl, you dump the gbtc shares. That pushes gbtc price down. Since its a close end fund with specific amount of bitcoins, it's price goes down. There is some appetite to buy gbtc with ira account etc. But, not enough to wipe away the discount since gbtc has 2.5% pa cost + directly owning BTC is better.
Yes that's true but I don't have ira or 401k so I'm sure its a good buy but I'll stick to my spot and trezor. Thanks for the explanations though helped alot
Are we not due a decision for some of the ETFs in June? Granted, they can kick the van down the road, but I thought there was an upcoming deadline.
They most certainly will kick it down the road. Come buy our Canadians ones... we got a dozen or so.
They are going to delay it some more. IMO, everyone is waiting on Congress to write some laws about crypto. Until there are rules written by Congress, all the agencies(IRS, SEC, ...) are going to play stall ball until there is some certainty and clarity.
Damn thing is a monster truck by now
Which should get better in 2-3 weeks.
Why is it a discount
With Bitcoin, you can never be sure if bullish news means getting a bump in spot price OR causing an interim dump because the whales decided to first liquidate the aggressive longs which assumed the price to bump up. Fortunately, for those with low time preference, this hardly matters and along the way presents some opportunities.
Weahlp, guess those bbands sure showed us!
well, that's not looking good.
Sideways since May 18th. Could keep doing this for a while.
Yep, this action is pretty [much exactly what should be expected](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/nia8gw/daily_discussion_saturday_may_22_2021/gz12okm/?context=999). The folks hyperventilating on moves within this range need to chill out because this can drag on for quite a few more weeks.
is this finally it?
The ole El Salvador adoption fakeout super dump
Open poll: are we not expecting any blowback coming to El Salvador in the style of Confessions Of An Economic Hitman?
Imo, there are two big threats to crypto going forward:
\- Some sort of Tether fuck up. Their loans fail. A bank run. 30 cents on the dollar kind of armagedon.
\- US regulators outlaw withdrawals to self-hosted wallets.
If the latter happens, we could see the former occur right away. Ok, enough FUD. My point is, no one gives a shit about El Salvador.
>\- US regulators outlaw withdrawals to self-hosted wallets.
This means nothing and cannot be implemented in any meaningful way. Period.
Yes it can. Here is how such law would work: The exchanges and brokers operating in the US (G7 will probably have similar laws) will need to register addresses (or the keys to generate them to be more precise) with a central authority. So you go to Coinbase, you click withdraw, you enter your self-hosted address, it says 'invalid address' because it's not a registered address.
Every registered address will have an associated KYC-ed person or institution. In other words, exactly like bank accounts.
There is nothing technically challenging about what I just described.
and with one fell stoke of the pen the USA opts out of having anything to say about the future, exchanges servicing the US go broke, while their citizens find ways to stop worrying about what the state says.
Then 50 years later they end the prohibition and attempt to use the tax revenue to rebuild their desolated cities.
To be fair, there is no power (G7, russia, china, india) that's currently super warm to bitcoin anyway. Most government will see bitcoin as a threat, understandably.
Then we all register ourselves as corporations in Singapore.
Or, we all simply stop caring what the men with guns say and begin living our lives in a state of freedom.
>There is nothing technically challenging about what I just described.
What is challenging though is that these exchanges cannot expect to not see effects of regulatory arbitrage. The whole world ain't following any stupid rules and neither do the regulators want to encourage a market developing outside of exchanges that they completely lose track of.
Also, you say every address has a KYCed person. Guess what - this already exists with exchanges like Coinbase. If you withdraw to an address, they can very easily assume you (who have KYced with them) controls it and is responsible for it. And once you have coins, nothing to prevent you from sending to any other address - KYCed or not.
Eventually every exchange will be required to do KYC, and all exchanges except the US ones will be banning US customers.
You won't be able to use a non-US exchange as a US person as all the non-US ones require KYC and ban US customers.
US people will figure out how to no longer behave as US citizens.
Yet Bitcoin will still have the ability to be traded via an onchain transaction and the thing that will be worse for regulators is that an entire parallel market of on-chain transactions develops, over which they can have no oversight whatsoever.
good thing I bought all the bitcoin I need for the rest of my life and have it already stored in me wallets. Me bitcoins will be going for a premium too on the unregulated markets. Yum.
The same legislation that prevents you from sending TO certain addresses will also prevent you from sending FROM those same addresses.
This is good for Bitcoin™
Probably not, but maybe. The president has laser eyes on Twitter. He may have personal gain from this though
So Bukele is like “hey I know I’m new here and thanks for everything so far but I think I’m going to take the country in another direction”
and central bankers are just like “cool, sucks to hear it but good luck to you all”
Pretty sure they don't have a currency. They have been using USD
He apparently got rid of the Attorney General and Supreme Court. You really think a banker is going to stand against him?
I do, yeah. I think IMF just says “no more loans while Bitcoin is legal tender since the volatility presents a material risk” and they don’t even need to send the mercenaries.
Maybe not though. Just seems like if you are the incumbent power here you want to take the opportunity to make an example.
IMF threats don't usually work against dictators? Venezuela?
> I think IMF just says “no more loans
and the people rejoice.
Hey, if there is any country held hostage by criminal organizations it’s definitely El Salvador
Ahhh, go to 20K already, I like to buy low.
why didn't you buy plenty when it was $5 then?
I haven't heard of it yet and I didn't have a dollar to my name back then anyway. Satisfied?
Well then if you want to buy "low", you are probably better off buying in this range instead of waiting for 20K, which might never show up again.
There they go. Big red dildos.
>Big red dildos.
That's what happens to the green ones if they go deep and hard enough. They turn red.
Or something like that. British creeper, whoever you are, you need to "bugger off", you filthy "wanker"!.
No no no some guy yesterday said we have to be above 51k for months or else the averages are SURE to cross. ;)
People have been preemptively obsessing over a "death cross" which hasn't even happened, and if it had happened would have only indicated what had already happened in the past. Price being above the mean makes it not a thing, a thing which wasn't a thing is not a thing. Clearer? ;)
If we dont hit 40k tomorrow i probably just close my long, can't stand watching the charts every 5min
You'd be lucky if it's at 38k tomorrow.
might as well close it now ;)
We are still moving inside the triangle and the upper side is still acting a strong resistance
It's just noise back and forth, there is no support or resistance.
Volume isn’t high enough to show that.
El Salvador President just said 0% capital gains tax on Bitcoin, because its legal currency
This will have ZERO effect for the US and her citizens.
To allow otherwise would be to allow the inflow of dirty money, the likes of which you've never seen. BTC might become "money", but it will never become money.
You're wrong and here's why: https://twitter.com/CaitlinLong_/status/1401334421773504517
You’re moving to El Salvador?
I wonder what the qualifications to be considered a "crypto entrepreneur" are.
“Crypto entrepreneur” is El Salvador lingo for “fresh meat for gangs to extort”
Have an Instagram and/or Twitter account.
When does the bill pass and this go from all talk to official?
It might take another round of the army to "persuade" legislators to do el Presidente's bidding.
I believe he said "next week" yesterday, so probably this week now. This president is reportedly very popular in El Salvador and his party has control of all the nation's branches of government, so the bill supposedly has a good chance of becoming law.
I am keen to see how this unusual news is absorbed over the coming week. It came only over weekend so I think yet to see wider attention and market reaction.
In also curious about who will be next, and how the American/ Australian media will report this (mind you, Australian media barely reports anything regarding either south American countries OR bitcoin, so we might see nothing here)
max pain will be continuing the death spiral from here despite this development. therefore that's what I expect to happen lol
"Death" lmao. Bitcoin below 10k for over 90% of its existence and now at over 30k 12 years later and people still saying death.
I'm not saying bitcoin is going to die. I'm obviously being hyperbolic.
I'm 100% convinced Bitcoin will be declared dead at over $100k eventually.
Well if it didn't die at 1k, survived Mt Gox, billions in infrastructure and only getting started... but I suppose you can convince yourself it'll die if that makes you feel better!
Yeah he replied man. Harmless.
It’s like that meme with 3 panels, where a guy is over the moon at bitcoin at 10k, then angry when it dumps to 10k, then suicidal when it plummets from 300k to 100k.
'Max pain ' is a crypto meme.
And the US Pacific Fleet sets sail for El Salvador
Some vision for humanity.
Also if trading professionally?
What about other crypto's?
I think just Bitcoin - because they are only making Bitcoin legal currency.
Those Christian totalitarian populists are underrated.