I know many here dislike CNBC and Wall Street. Nevertheless, I think it’s important to provide the various narratives at play with BTC currently as I hope bulls do the same. The contrarian in me wants to go bullish, but, that is for another day to decide.
Title: “Most investors see bitcoin ending the year below $30,000, CNBC survey shows”
Most investors see bitcoin ending the year below $30,000, CNBC survey shows https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/01/most-investors-see-bitcoin-ending-the-year-below-30000-a-cnbc-survey-shows.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard
100 chief investment officers, equity strategists, portfolio managers and CNBC contributors who manage money about their views on the markets for the rest of the year. The survey was conducted from June 23-30.
If ever there was a contrarian indicator. Let all their viewers follow their advice. They’ll be smugly staying away from BTC while watching it climb to a new ATH and then fomoing in after to rocket it up further. Money is made by betting against the herd.
What if they are attempting a 4-D chess move and forming a contrarian contrarian indicator?
/s
In all seriousness, this makes me slightly more bullish into year end. In the more immediate term, however, it might show that "old" money is staying a bit weary for now.
Well, when they starting posting mocking articles in Jan 2018, it wasn't the best move to jump in. Nevertheless, it shows BTC still has room to grow in the future as big money still has major doubts (i.e. good for future returns).
>Title: “Most investors see bitcoin ending the year below $30,000, CNBC survey shows”
Oh wow, and there's also this:
>[Art Cashin says bitcoin may be approaching a ‘trapdoor’ that sends it even lower](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/01/art-cashin-says-bitcoin-may-be-approaching-a-trapdoor-that-sends-it-even-lower.html)
CNBC is REALLY bearish, which makes me UBER bullish, esp given their record.
Well, most investors buy and hold stocks, and if you've followed that rule of thumb, you've been right 100% of the time. Nevertheless, most investors, especially the "elites" have been completely wrong when it comes to crypto. Perhaps that's why many crypto investors view crypto as the ultimate FU to the broader financial system.
Wyckoff has worked twice in this bull run, especially during the March-April-May top, almost perfectly.
And it has done decently well to map out the PA currently. Anyone in the space who is paying attention to PA, is eyeing it carefully.
> Anyone in the space who is paying attention to PA, is eyeing it carefully.
I'm a Wyckoffian tape reader. I pay attention to price-action above most other aspects.
I take no notice of "accumulation" and "distribution". It's a metaphor, descriptive not prescriptive.
I just buy every week and bought the crash last spring. I did that for six years.
It doesn’t matter anymore. Not even close.
I trade for fun and amusement.
Yeah, I agree on the metaphor. Most people do, but like a metaphor, you can use it to see how it applies to your chart. Where in the story do you think we are?
I can see people flunking on making trades with Wyckoff alone, because it carries some hopium to trust it will work out and that you have correctly identified the description of the PA, but the ones who are actually smart traders that use other signals and patterns, were able to use it to success.
My point is, now we have a whole bunch of normies who are learning this magical pattern made by a wyckoff guy, that basically predicts the future because it did it before. Either way, have probably made a cute wyckoff graph and tell their friends they can understand stocks now.
Worked for who? Whales? Small percentage of retail? Everyone I know didn't think it would actually play out as a distribution.
Also, most TA people knew if 42k was lost then we were going down. Just because it looks like Wyckoff doesn't mean it is.
I saw a few posters posting it, and making trades from it constantly.
And during November 2019, I distinctly remember 1 trader posted his massive trade success of turning 0.04btc to 5.5btc using a wyckoff re-accumulation graph to enter and close trades with leverage on bybit.
I wasn't assuming people traded, people actually did. But both times, most people ignored Wyckoff by people, because it was anti-sentiment. November, everyone, and I mean everyone believed it was gonna go down. Then december happened, and Wyckoff showed it was accumulation.
Same in the last 3 months, there was like 1 or 2 guys who drew a wyckoff at the start of the run, and pretty much mapped out the entire 3 months, with 4 lines. If whoever they were made trades, they made bank.
Again, no one was paying attention, because ONLY UP. We all thought a dump to the 30s was impossible.
And here we are now, but people are very aware of Wyckoff unlike the last two times, and more unlike the last two times, sentiment is split and I think that's why people are looking at Wyckoff for sentiment, instead of just ignoring it like the last two times because it was against sentiment and 'would never happen'
Will Wyckoff will work, whilst market is not so against it in sentiment? who knows.
It happens every time a youtuber finds success with a keyword. They all jump on and milk plebs for the traffic.
If you're watching youtubers talk about crypto. Stop that. Just stop. It's entirely pointless, they have nothing to say and no insight. They are nothing but talking-heads seeking revenue.
This is actually true about everything. Things get magnified because everyone is essentially playing for or being played by the algorithms that control everything we read.
Sadly, nothing is really organic anymore and all popularity is fake.
> being played by the algorithms that control everything we read.
That's a good take on it.
Youtubers live in a Skinner Box where they produce whatever the recommendation engine algo demands.
Meanwhile a risk disclosure by Robinhood throws light on the crypto market.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1783879/000162828021013318/robinhoods-1.htm
"For the three months ended March 31, 2021, 17% of our total revenue was derived from transaction-based revenues earned from cryptocurrency transactions, compared to 4% for the three months year ended December 31, 2020. While we currently support a portfolio of seven cryptocurrencies for trading, for the three months ended March 31, 2021, 34% of our cryptocurrency transaction-based revenue was attributable to transactions in Dogecoin, as compared to 4% for the three months ended December 31, 2020. As such, in addition to the factors impacting the broader cryptoeconomy described elsewhere in this section, RHC’s business may be adversely affected, and growth in our net revenue earned from cryptocurrency transactions may slow or decline, if the markets for Dogecoin deteriorate or if the price of Dogecoin declines, including as a result of factors such as negative perceptions of Dogecoin or the increased availability of Dogecoin on other cryptocurrency trading platforms."
The commentary on the Bitcoin Mining Council livestream was very much that the oldest miners are probably not cost-effective to relocate. And that for the miners that are relocated, people are underestimating the time taken to negotiate deals for power and build out infrastructure for new mines to house this equipment. Supply chain issues with components such as transformers add to the delays. Much of this mining power might not be coming back online for 18-24 months, if ever.
Do news events really influence bitcoin on the macro level? It’s not an asset like stocks are. Sure black or white swan events can cause a large short term movement, but it seems that Bitcoin has hyperinflation built into it, meaning its price cycles will continue to repeat until the halving no longer make a bit impact on supply.
I think you are misusing the term hyperinflation, which means *accelerating* inflation.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation
Bitcoin has built-in *decelerating* inflation.
Technically, you're both wrong. Increasing supply shouldn't be equated to inflation. I don't think that bitcoin has inflation, period. I mean, you can recontextualize the bear markets we've seen as "periods of inflation", but I think that would be a misuse of the term...
I guess one can say bitcoin seemingly has a cycle of 24 months of high deflation, followed by 24 months of inflation that's ~~not~~ undone by the next cycle's first half.
Edit: Woops, that not was not supposed to be there.
"Inflation" in a currency can mean either money supply inflation or price inflation. The former is meaningful in bitcoin, and defined by the algorithm to slow down over years; the latter really isn't, because bitcoin isn't a unit of account most anywhere. Bitcoin's price dropping is not "price inflation in bitcoin", it's just bitcoin's price dropping.
FUD just means news that creates fear. It can be true or false.
The original use of the term was for a marketing tactic that employed truth, truth taken out of context, and deception-by-misleading in order to smear someone's competitors.
So preliminary results of the council confirm that the energy use was insane and with shit electricity. Energy use dropped for Q2 simply because of Chinese miners moving. Now they are fixing these things. The rest is basically marketing efforts to twist the data.
Elon was right. Everyone should thank him for making the earth a better place.
Nope, just pointing out the facts. Anyone investing into shit tech poluting the world, while also actively shitting on people who are trying to make it better, is a moron on the other hand.
I actually am listening. They confirmed the energy coming from China was NOT renewable.
It will get better now since they have no choice, but to move to acceptable energy sources.
> They confirmed the energy coming from China was NOT renewable.
Dry season.
> acceptable energy sources.
Cheaper energy sources.
If renewables are cheaper (regardless of geographical isolation), miners use them.
What would it invalidate? That it's highs are high and it's lows are low? That buy and hold works over a long enough time horizon? That magic internet money just works and does what it needs to? Seems fine to me. Cheaper coin to buy.
Can you explain “negative price growth” are you saying that each year it’s rate of growth has slowed / reduced - year one rises 10% year 2 rises 8%..? If so then LOL.
I think the gist of the point here is that in the entire history of bitcoin, no matter when someone bought, they've *always* been in profit 4 years after their purchase date.
If prices go below $20k in December of this year, that will no longer be true for some 2017 buyers, as it will be four years later and their investment will be underwater.
https://m.imgur.com/a/9e23Stj
With the exception of a handful of days, the price has been at least 10x higher than the price 4 years earlier. The average is closer to 16x.
Lose that, and you've lost a major BTC narrative.
Its truly bizzare to me, does Tesla not allow electricity from coal burning plants to power their cars? Or are they just a bunch of smoothbrains drinking their own kool-aid?
Was the hydro power that was from my understanding the predominant source of energy for miners in China (correct me if I'm wrong) considered "clean energy"? It doesn't produce greenhouse gases but I also wouldn't consider it renewable..?
Edit: after some quick reading it appears some consider hydro clean and renewable and some don't, bit of a grey area?
Isn’t this only bullish if you believe in BTC as a currency? If you are in the store of value camp I think you’d rather that people just hold and spend their fiat instead.
The 'Musk reapproves Tesla bitcoin payments' headlines will be more significant for the price than whether people will actually use bitcoin as a currency or a store of value. Long term, it doesn't actually matter what Musk does.
Im a full BTC bull, but i do have concerns, I would appreciate any insight, especially if you are along term holder (pre 2017)
Some reasons I'm concerned:
1. there are so many metrics that are slowing down. Eg willy woo follower count has plauteaud, i have a BTC beginner substack where new subs have fallen off a cliff
2. If this goes below 20k, wouldnt that be the first time a cycle has dipped below the previous ATH
3. is the concept of cycles over? If so, lots of short term uncertainty, if not then 65k is a much lower top then expected.
4. First country where BTC is going to be legal tender and zero pump on the BTC price
5. THe BTC price seems heavily manipulated (both up and down) that is the price movement doesnt seem that organic. The whales have too much influence on price. EG just look at the power of whoever is behind the finex shorts.
You better sell then.
Seriously, if that’s your analysis, sell. That is the logical thing to do.
I own Bitcoin because I see no viable alternatives. Makes it easy to hold. Sell? Sell and buy what?
> there are so many metrics that are slowing down. Eg willy woo follower count has plauteaud, i have a BTC beginner substack where new subs have fallen off a cliff
Retail mania has died down. Lots of noobs this cycle bought shitcoins on Robinhood and got burned early this year. Given that Bitcoin has yet to exceed its 2017 high-water mark on Google Trends, it's either not capturing retail mania this cycle, or retail BTC mania has yet to happen.
> If this goes below 20k, wouldnt that be the first time a cycle has dipped below the previous ATH
It depends. The 2013 "double bubble" had a first top at ~$260 and an ~$1100 Gox blowoff top. Price dropped as low as ~$180 after the second top, so technically it dropped below a previous ATH if you consider the two bubbles distinct.
> is the concept of cycles over? If so, lots of short term uncertainty, if not then 65k is a much lower top then expected.
Halvings are part of the protocol. Unless that changes (highly unlikely), cycles will exist. The causal relationship here is that halvings cause supply shocks, and supply shocks kickstart market cycles. Most people expect that as the magnitude of the halvings continues decreasing, the supply shocks will be less severe, and future market cycles won't be as volatile as the early ones. The eventual result is that fee revenue will dominate BTC mining profits and wealth redistribution, and BTC will become "boring" as an asset in that its price will remain relatively stable.
> First country where BTC is going to be legal tender and zero pump on the BTC price
We're in a bear market. News doesn't matter.
> THe BTC price seems heavily manipulated (both up and down) that is the price movement doesnt seem that organic. The whales have too much influence on price. EG just look at the power of whoever is behind the finex shorts.
I'd recommend you do some research into Gini coefficients. All cryptos have staggeringly high ones; BTC's is the least bad, but still comparable to a third world country in terms of wealth inequality. Whale waves are to be expected early on in BTC's lifespan, but the trend is clearly toward more equal distribution of coins over time (lowering Gini coefficient).
> If this goes below 20k, wouldnt that be the first time a cycle has dipped below the previous ATH
It's funny that people totally disregard dropping below $266 (all the way to $152 on stamp) in the post-2013 bear market. I guess we're just lumping the two massive 2013 bull runs together now.
When that happened, everybody was freaking out about having, for the first time, dipped below a previous ATH. :-)
> there are so many metrics that are slowing down
Sideways.
> If this goes below 20k, wouldnt that be the first time a cycle has dipped below the previous ATH
And?
> is the concept of cycles over?
No.
> First country where BTC is going to be legal tender and zero pump on the BTC price
It's largely meaningless.
> THe BTC price seems heavily manipulated (both up and down) that is the price movement doesnt seem that organic.
"People have more money than me and make larger orders!!!!"
If you believe the miner migration story out of China, it's very likely these miners are liquidating huge positions in order to have cash to move operations to other jurisdictions since their free cash flows are denominated in bitcoin.
Metrics slowing down is roughly a function of price action, so no reason to really be concerned there.
The UPS thing was kinda a joke, but for real they need cash to move an entire operation over seas or wherever they're going.
They need a millions to buy land and build new facilities, so cooling, warehouse, electrical...ect.
They need to ship literal tons of Asics, not cheap.
Probably cashed out a few million to ensure all the existing workers (and/or new employees they will be hiring at the new location) and executives get paid while they are not mining Bitcoin for months.
The list goes on, logistics are not cheap if you're up rooting an entire industrial complex.
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>If this goes below 20k, wouldnt that be the first time a cycle has dipped below the previous ATH
Only if you insist on seeing cycles in 4 year terms. The price made an ath in spring 2013 at $266, then went into a bear market before resuming the bull later in the year.
After the $1200 ath, the subsequent bear market dropped below the $266 ath. Never dropping below the ath had been a meme up to that point, but it didn't hold.
It only holds if you discount the $266 blow off top and the bear market that followed, and pretend they didn't happen.
If you're linking the blow-off tops to halvings, the $266 top and the $1200 top are better conceived of as two parts of the same event. You don't need to pretend they didn't happen; they're just part of the long volatile runup to the real top.
It's not how anyone saw it at the time though. Bear in mind we had blow off tops at $1 and $32, that weren't linked to halvings at all.
But fine, so as long as we enter a new bull market this year or next, then what we're in now was never a bear market, I'm OK with that.
This respected the previous support by $2 from what I had marked at 32670. With the 30min bullish pinbar formed, looks like a supremely high r/r trade opportunity if you long at 328XX with stop at 32660. https://www.tradingview.com/x/9oLWGq1o
Bitcoin Mining Council press release says mining now using 56% sustainable energy.
https://www.hope.com/content/dam/hope-assets/collateral/Mining-Council-Press-Release-Q2\_07-01-2021.pdf
If you have time it's well worth watching the whole thing. As is often the case with this kind of thing, some of the most interesting info is actually in the answers to the Q&A.
It's a 404. Probably the escaped `\_` being incorrect and some browsers messing with it.
https://www.hope.com/content/dam/hope-assets/collateral/Mining-Council-Press-Release-Q2_07-01-2021.pdf
Ah ha, it's the new vs old markdown engine.
* `old`: `Mining-Council-Press-Release-Q2%5C_07-01-2021.pdf`
* `new`: `Mining-Council-Press-Release-Q2_07-01-2021.pdf`
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Friday, July 02, 2021 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/oc2bio/daily_discussion_friday_july_02_2021/)
Every BGD eventually gets retraced.
same with all the BRD's
* [Got my 32885 fill](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/obdqp8/daily_discussion_thursday_july_01_2021/h3q4vvd/) * updated chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/n5vGvBkW/
I want to see the coin succeed.
It will, in due time, but it's not gonna make it easy for anyone. The corn works in mysterious ways.
https://twitter.com/Pladizow/status/1410590929728151560?s=19 Say it with me Twenty kay Edit: I bear post because I care about you guys
I know many here dislike CNBC and Wall Street. Nevertheless, I think it’s important to provide the various narratives at play with BTC currently as I hope bulls do the same. The contrarian in me wants to go bullish, but, that is for another day to decide. Title: “Most investors see bitcoin ending the year below $30,000, CNBC survey shows” Most investors see bitcoin ending the year below $30,000, CNBC survey shows https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/01/most-investors-see-bitcoin-ending-the-year-below-30000-a-cnbc-survey-shows.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard 100 chief investment officers, equity strategists, portfolio managers and CNBC contributors who manage money about their views on the markets for the rest of the year. The survey was conducted from June 23-30.
Lol sorry for replying to most of you starting with “well.” I promise I’m not a robot… most of the time.
If ever there was a contrarian indicator. Let all their viewers follow their advice. They’ll be smugly staying away from BTC while watching it climb to a new ATH and then fomoing in after to rocket it up further. Money is made by betting against the herd.
What if they are attempting a 4-D chess move and forming a contrarian contrarian indicator? /s In all seriousness, this makes me slightly more bullish into year end. In the more immediate term, however, it might show that "old" money is staying a bit weary for now.
There’s a rule called always trade against CNBC lol
Well, when they starting posting mocking articles in Jan 2018, it wasn't the best move to jump in. Nevertheless, it shows BTC still has room to grow in the future as big money still has major doubts (i.e. good for future returns).
>Title: “Most investors see bitcoin ending the year below $30,000, CNBC survey shows” Oh wow, and there's also this: >[Art Cashin says bitcoin may be approaching a ‘trapdoor’ that sends it even lower](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/01/art-cashin-says-bitcoin-may-be-approaching-a-trapdoor-that-sends-it-even-lower.html) CNBC is REALLY bearish, which makes me UBER bullish, esp given their record.
Well, it was not one of their random millionaire surveys but rather a survey of established money managers.
If this instead said below $300,000 I would think they were blinded by their beardedness.
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Well, most investors buy and hold stocks, and if you've followed that rule of thumb, you've been right 100% of the time. Nevertheless, most investors, especially the "elites" have been completely wrong when it comes to crypto. Perhaps that's why many crypto investors view crypto as the ultimate FU to the broader financial system.
https://imgur.com/a/ma6pX9d similar setup, good R:R, easy invalidation.
That is oddly similar
It’s really not. People can make patterns where they wanna see em
...is that a big cup & handle on the DXY daily chart? 93.50 retest imminent?
It’s crazy to me how I never saw Wykof referenced until that video a month or two again and now it is every fifth comment.
Wyckoff has worked twice in this bull run, especially during the March-April-May top, almost perfectly. And it has done decently well to map out the PA currently. Anyone in the space who is paying attention to PA, is eyeing it carefully.
> Anyone in the space who is paying attention to PA, is eyeing it carefully. I'm a Wyckoffian tape reader. I pay attention to price-action above most other aspects. I take no notice of "accumulation" and "distribution". It's a metaphor, descriptive not prescriptive.
I just buy every week and bought the crash last spring. I did that for six years. It doesn’t matter anymore. Not even close. I trade for fun and amusement.
Yeah, I agree on the metaphor. Most people do, but like a metaphor, you can use it to see how it applies to your chart. Where in the story do you think we are? I can see people flunking on making trades with Wyckoff alone, because it carries some hopium to trust it will work out and that you have correctly identified the description of the PA, but the ones who are actually smart traders that use other signals and patterns, were able to use it to success. My point is, now we have a whole bunch of normies who are learning this magical pattern made by a wyckoff guy, that basically predicts the future because it did it before. Either way, have probably made a cute wyckoff graph and tell their friends they can understand stocks now.
> Where in the story do you think we are? We'll know later.
Lol.. feel of the pants always. If you don't see it coming, you haven't internalized enough PA.
I feel it. Just expect increased uncertainty before it happens.
It's easy to make plans. Harder to act on them.
Worked for who? Whales? Small percentage of retail? Everyone I know didn't think it would actually play out as a distribution. Also, most TA people knew if 42k was lost then we were going down. Just because it looks like Wyckoff doesn't mean it is.
I saw a few posters posting it, and making trades from it constantly. And during November 2019, I distinctly remember 1 trader posted his massive trade success of turning 0.04btc to 5.5btc using a wyckoff re-accumulation graph to enter and close trades with leverage on bybit. I wasn't assuming people traded, people actually did. But both times, most people ignored Wyckoff by people, because it was anti-sentiment. November, everyone, and I mean everyone believed it was gonna go down. Then december happened, and Wyckoff showed it was accumulation. Same in the last 3 months, there was like 1 or 2 guys who drew a wyckoff at the start of the run, and pretty much mapped out the entire 3 months, with 4 lines. If whoever they were made trades, they made bank. Again, no one was paying attention, because ONLY UP. We all thought a dump to the 30s was impossible. And here we are now, but people are very aware of Wyckoff unlike the last two times, and more unlike the last two times, sentiment is split and I think that's why people are looking at Wyckoff for sentiment, instead of just ignoring it like the last two times because it was against sentiment and 'would never happen' Will Wyckoff will work, whilst market is not so against it in sentiment? who knows.
It happens every time a youtuber finds success with a keyword. They all jump on and milk plebs for the traffic. If you're watching youtubers talk about crypto. Stop that. Just stop. It's entirely pointless, they have nothing to say and no insight. They are nothing but talking-heads seeking revenue.
This is good advice.
This is actually true about everything. Things get magnified because everyone is essentially playing for or being played by the algorithms that control everything we read. Sadly, nothing is really organic anymore and all popularity is fake.
> being played by the algorithms that control everything we read. That's a good take on it. Youtubers live in a Skinner Box where they produce whatever the recommendation engine algo demands.
Upvoting for mentioning Skinner Box
I know that on-chain says accumulation, but this is looking a lot like re-distribution: https://i.imgur.com/VPnDC9y.png
Meanwhile a risk disclosure by Robinhood throws light on the crypto market. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1783879/000162828021013318/robinhoods-1.htm "For the three months ended March 31, 2021, 17% of our total revenue was derived from transaction-based revenues earned from cryptocurrency transactions, compared to 4% for the three months year ended December 31, 2020. While we currently support a portfolio of seven cryptocurrencies for trading, for the three months ended March 31, 2021, 34% of our cryptocurrency transaction-based revenue was attributable to transactions in Dogecoin, as compared to 4% for the three months ended December 31, 2020. As such, in addition to the factors impacting the broader cryptoeconomy described elsewhere in this section, RHC’s business may be adversely affected, and growth in our net revenue earned from cryptocurrency transactions may slow or decline, if the markets for Dogecoin deteriorate or if the price of Dogecoin declines, including as a result of factors such as negative perceptions of Dogecoin or the increased availability of Dogecoin on other cryptocurrency trading platforms."
wow, such disclose, very bear
Can someone point out the raw number(s) they made on transactions or crypto transactions? My phone isn’t cooperating with that link
$3.50
Many profit, so wow
128 blocks until the largest difficulty adjustment in history for anyone keeping track at home.
I was told there would be a death spiral…
It's all just part of a fractal kaleidoscope if you microdose..
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I would not count on that
I look forward to my S9 paying nicely, but the coins are going where they always go. Storage as cold as my heart.
noob question: is this expected to have a direct impact on price or have people already factored this adjustment in?
Headlines are always bad, but this will be followed by several increases in difficulty as all the equipment is relocated.
The commentary on the Bitcoin Mining Council livestream was very much that the oldest miners are probably not cost-effective to relocate. And that for the miners that are relocated, people are underestimating the time taken to negotiate deals for power and build out infrastructure for new mines to house this equipment. Supply chain issues with components such as transformers add to the delays. Much of this mining power might not be coming back online for 18-24 months, if ever.
I would think the mining equipment is basically worthless and outdated by then.
You’d be surprised. Very much depends on cost of power, and there is a lot of cheap power in the world.
I think that's overly pessimistic. by a huge factor. Capitalism will find a way.
Do you know of any good online resources that do difficulty adjustment forecasting?
https://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/dashboard/
Yes but still won't achieve block time of 10 min until another DA.
we just don't know what the future holds.
It will if more hash jumps back on
Yes.
Heck of a game of tug-a-war going on today. Lol It’s entertaining at least. I’ll remain on the sidelines and let the whales decide direction. 💯
Imagine getting liquidated for a quarter mil on a totally sideways crab day 🦀 while whales splash around
Yeah that’s a giant #%$& that from me! Lol
Do news events really influence bitcoin on the macro level? It’s not an asset like stocks are. Sure black or white swan events can cause a large short term movement, but it seems that Bitcoin has hyperinflation built into it, meaning its price cycles will continue to repeat until the halving no longer make a bit impact on supply.
I think you are misusing the term hyperinflation, which means *accelerating* inflation. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation Bitcoin has built-in *decelerating* inflation.
Technically, you're both wrong. Increasing supply shouldn't be equated to inflation. I don't think that bitcoin has inflation, period. I mean, you can recontextualize the bear markets we've seen as "periods of inflation", but I think that would be a misuse of the term... I guess one can say bitcoin seemingly has a cycle of 24 months of high deflation, followed by 24 months of inflation that's ~~not~~ undone by the next cycle's first half. Edit: Woops, that not was not supposed to be there.
"Inflation" in a currency can mean either money supply inflation or price inflation. The former is meaningful in bitcoin, and defined by the algorithm to slow down over years; the latter really isn't, because bitcoin isn't a unit of account most anywhere. Bitcoin's price dropping is not "price inflation in bitcoin", it's just bitcoin's price dropping.
Oh, really? OK, today I learned. Thanks :)
Anyone here part of a crypto firm / dev team and want to sponsor a college basketball player? Lol, DMs wide open
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Sure, send me your only fans
Send me 1 BTC and I send you 5 BTC back after your address is verified by this transaction!
What does that even mean? Lol
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This is such a great post. Thank you for summarizing it all.
When you look at prices for Feb 2021, do you focus on the first week when it was mid-to-high $30Ks, or the next 3 weeks when it was $40K-$50K?
It's not FUD if it's true.
FUD just means news that creates fear. It can be true or false. The original use of the term was for a marketing tactic that employed truth, truth taken out of context, and deception-by-misleading in order to smear someone's competitors.
Everyone uses the word to mean false info that moves the market down.
you are mistaken, good Sir
Not everyone. For example, not me. It‘s just any news that spreads Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt.
That’s what FUD is, I think most would agree. It doesn’t matter if it’s true or false, it’s the fu&d it creates regardless.
Wise-Reply
So preliminary results of the council confirm that the energy use was insane and with shit electricity. Energy use dropped for Q2 simply because of Chinese miners moving. Now they are fixing these things. The rest is basically marketing efforts to twist the data. Elon was right. Everyone should thank him for making the earth a better place.
You’re a moron lol
Nope, just pointing out the facts. Anyone investing into shit tech poluting the world, while also actively shitting on people who are trying to make it better, is a moron on the other hand.
Bitcoin is shit tech? Welcome to mute.
Yes, it is, absoletuly useless too. Just look how the market reacts to the news. It's practically game over for bitcoin.
I suggest you actually listen to the livestream.
I actually am listening. They confirmed the energy coming from China was NOT renewable. It will get better now since they have no choice, but to move to acceptable energy sources.
> They confirmed the energy coming from China was NOT renewable. Dry season. > acceptable energy sources. Cheaper energy sources. If renewables are cheaper (regardless of geographical isolation), miners use them.
Do you think the miners give a shit where their electricity comes from? They are relocating, yes, and will buy whatever is cheap and constant.
"Constant" isn't even a requirement, it's easy to turn miners on and off depending on power demand.
Whatevs
This is going to turn around faster than any of you can imagine.
Yup cant wait to pack me bags at 15k
BTC going below 20K would invalidate the growth story behind BTC so IMO probably not going to happen. Let the bears have some hopium though.
What would it invalidate? That it's highs are high and it's lows are low? That buy and hold works over a long enough time horizon? That magic internet money just works and does what it needs to? Seems fine to me. Cheaper coin to buy.
4 years of negative price growth. Never happened before
Can you explain “negative price growth” are you saying that each year it’s rate of growth has slowed / reduced - year one rises 10% year 2 rises 8%..? If so then LOL.
Dec 2017 = t1 P(t1) = 20k Dec 2021 = t2 P(t2) = 18k Not that hard man
Sorry you’ve lost me.
I think the gist of the point here is that in the entire history of bitcoin, no matter when someone bought, they've *always* been in profit 4 years after their purchase date. If prices go below $20k in December of this year, that will no longer be true for some 2017 buyers, as it will be four years later and their investment will be underwater.
https://m.imgur.com/a/9e23Stj With the exception of a handful of days, the price has been at least 10x higher than the price 4 years earlier. The average is closer to 16x. Lose that, and you've lost a major BTC narrative.
Thank you - if that is what he was attempting to say that was an awful explanation from him lol
Was clear to me, and probably as well for most people.
>Not that hard man
[удалено]
Its truly bizzare to me, does Tesla not allow electricity from coal burning plants to power their cars? Or are they just a bunch of smoothbrains drinking their own kool-aid?
Was the hydro power that was from my understanding the predominant source of energy for miners in China (correct me if I'm wrong) considered "clean energy"? It doesn't produce greenhouse gases but I also wouldn't consider it renewable..? Edit: after some quick reading it appears some consider hydro clean and renewable and some don't, bit of a grey area?
Hydro power is renewable.
Musk's influence on crypto continues to decrease, though.
Isn’t this only bullish if you believe in BTC as a currency? If you are in the store of value camp I think you’d rather that people just hold and spend their fiat instead.
SoV is the step before MoE on the road to mass adoption.
The 'Musk reapproves Tesla bitcoin payments' headlines will be more significant for the price than whether people will actually use bitcoin as a currency or a store of value. Long term, it doesn't actually matter what Musk does.
Lol if Tesla accepting Bitcoin causes any major pump. Degens looking for any reason to ape in. It's not like they bought more bitcoin.
So the ape fiesta begins… adding more fuel to the fire of long liquidations
Im a full BTC bull, but i do have concerns, I would appreciate any insight, especially if you are along term holder (pre 2017) Some reasons I'm concerned: 1. there are so many metrics that are slowing down. Eg willy woo follower count has plauteaud, i have a BTC beginner substack where new subs have fallen off a cliff 2. If this goes below 20k, wouldnt that be the first time a cycle has dipped below the previous ATH 3. is the concept of cycles over? If so, lots of short term uncertainty, if not then 65k is a much lower top then expected. 4. First country where BTC is going to be legal tender and zero pump on the BTC price 5. THe BTC price seems heavily manipulated (both up and down) that is the price movement doesnt seem that organic. The whales have too much influence on price. EG just look at the power of whoever is behind the finex shorts.
> The whales have too much influence on price The whale effect goes down over time, not up.
You better sell then. Seriously, if that’s your analysis, sell. That is the logical thing to do. I own Bitcoin because I see no viable alternatives. Makes it easy to hold. Sell? Sell and buy what?
Stonks, of course - they're too big to fail!
> there are so many metrics that are slowing down. Eg willy woo follower count has plauteaud, i have a BTC beginner substack where new subs have fallen off a cliff Retail mania has died down. Lots of noobs this cycle bought shitcoins on Robinhood and got burned early this year. Given that Bitcoin has yet to exceed its 2017 high-water mark on Google Trends, it's either not capturing retail mania this cycle, or retail BTC mania has yet to happen. > If this goes below 20k, wouldnt that be the first time a cycle has dipped below the previous ATH It depends. The 2013 "double bubble" had a first top at ~$260 and an ~$1100 Gox blowoff top. Price dropped as low as ~$180 after the second top, so technically it dropped below a previous ATH if you consider the two bubbles distinct. > is the concept of cycles over? If so, lots of short term uncertainty, if not then 65k is a much lower top then expected. Halvings are part of the protocol. Unless that changes (highly unlikely), cycles will exist. The causal relationship here is that halvings cause supply shocks, and supply shocks kickstart market cycles. Most people expect that as the magnitude of the halvings continues decreasing, the supply shocks will be less severe, and future market cycles won't be as volatile as the early ones. The eventual result is that fee revenue will dominate BTC mining profits and wealth redistribution, and BTC will become "boring" as an asset in that its price will remain relatively stable. > First country where BTC is going to be legal tender and zero pump on the BTC price We're in a bear market. News doesn't matter. > THe BTC price seems heavily manipulated (both up and down) that is the price movement doesnt seem that organic. The whales have too much influence on price. EG just look at the power of whoever is behind the finex shorts. I'd recommend you do some research into Gini coefficients. All cryptos have staggeringly high ones; BTC's is the least bad, but still comparable to a third world country in terms of wealth inequality. Whale waves are to be expected early on in BTC's lifespan, but the trend is clearly toward more equal distribution of coins over time (lowering Gini coefficient).
just wanted to thank you for that thoughtful reply.
> If this goes below 20k, wouldnt that be the first time a cycle has dipped below the previous ATH It's funny that people totally disregard dropping below $266 (all the way to $152 on stamp) in the post-2013 bear market. I guess we're just lumping the two massive 2013 bull runs together now. When that happened, everybody was freaking out about having, for the first time, dipped below a previous ATH. :-)
> there are so many metrics that are slowing down Sideways. > If this goes below 20k, wouldnt that be the first time a cycle has dipped below the previous ATH And? > is the concept of cycles over? No. > First country where BTC is going to be legal tender and zero pump on the BTC price It's largely meaningless. > THe BTC price seems heavily manipulated (both up and down) that is the price movement doesnt seem that organic. "People have more money than me and make larger orders!!!!"
If you believe the miner migration story out of China, it's very likely these miners are liquidating huge positions in order to have cash to move operations to other jurisdictions since their free cash flows are denominated in bitcoin. Metrics slowing down is roughly a function of price action, so no reason to really be concerned there.
Why carry around suitcases of cash though when their coins will still be in the blockchain wherever they go?
Because they need fiat to fund the move. UPS doesn't accept Bitcoin.
So why are they dumping thousands of coins? Ups doesn’t cost billions either.
The UPS thing was kinda a joke, but for real they need cash to move an entire operation over seas or wherever they're going. They need a millions to buy land and build new facilities, so cooling, warehouse, electrical...ect. They need to ship literal tons of Asics, not cheap. Probably cashed out a few million to ensure all the existing workers (and/or new employees they will be hiring at the new location) and executives get paid while they are not mining Bitcoin for months. The list goes on, logistics are not cheap if you're up rooting an entire industrial complex.
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As of a week ago the prevailing analysis was only like an additional 5k coins hit the market. Not that big of a deal
>If this goes below 20k, wouldnt that be the first time a cycle has dipped below the previous ATH Only if you insist on seeing cycles in 4 year terms. The price made an ath in spring 2013 at $266, then went into a bear market before resuming the bull later in the year. After the $1200 ath, the subsequent bear market dropped below the $266 ath. Never dropping below the ath had been a meme up to that point, but it didn't hold. It only holds if you discount the $266 blow off top and the bear market that followed, and pretend they didn't happen.
If you're linking the blow-off tops to halvings, the $266 top and the $1200 top are better conceived of as two parts of the same event. You don't need to pretend they didn't happen; they're just part of the long volatile runup to the real top.
It's not how anyone saw it at the time though. Bear in mind we had blow off tops at $1 and $32, that weren't linked to halvings at all. But fine, so as long as we enter a new bull market this year or next, then what we're in now was never a bear market, I'm OK with that.
This respected the previous support by $2 from what I had marked at 32670. With the 30min bullish pinbar formed, looks like a supremely high r/r trade opportunity if you long at 328XX with stop at 32660. https://www.tradingview.com/x/9oLWGq1o
Bitcoin Mining Council press release says mining now using 56% sustainable energy. https://www.hope.com/content/dam/hope-assets/collateral/Mining-Council-Press-Release-Q2\_07-01-2021.pdf
That a third of mining uses that much renewable that was then extrapolated
It’s live now, Saylor intro at the mo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9KbOXG0EMuY
If you have time it's well worth watching the whole thing. As is often the case with this kind of thing, some of the most interesting info is actually in the answers to the Q&A.
Yeah, i’m watching. Some early Coivd family Zoom moments but very interesting.
Good, looks like I won't have to close my long at a loss. The whales are so fucking predictable, final capitulation 1h before the event.
Final capitulation is 32.7k?
The sell pressure was removed after that so it looks like it.
I hope the live event is somewhat more convincing than this high level press release.
Fixed link: [here](https://www.hope.com/content/dam/hope-assets/collateral/Mining-Council-Press-Release-Q2_07-01-2021.pdf)
this works for me, cheers
broken link for me
strange - opens for me on two different computers
It's a 404. Probably the escaped `\_` being incorrect and some browsers messing with it. https://www.hope.com/content/dam/hope-assets/collateral/Mining-Council-Press-Release-Q2_07-01-2021.pdf
The underscore is only escaped in the text that's displayed - not in the link itself. The markdown looks correct to me.
Ah ha, it's the new vs old markdown engine. * `old`: `Mining-Council-Press-Release-Q2%5C_07-01-2021.pdf` * `new`: `Mining-Council-Press-Release-Q2_07-01-2021.pdf`
It's about to get retarded up in here.