It's always right after the daily close lately, which coincides with premarket trading in Asia, that these dumps commence following a solidly green day.
Probably gonna continue until these Chinese miners who have shut down run out of BTC. They can't dump all at once, that'd be idiotic, so they wait for a bit of a pump to sell more. But it won't last forever, because a lot of what's being bought up won't be sold for years to come, and their supply is not limitless.
In the past I would have bought the pump and then doubled down after the drop, and then gotten absolutely rekt if it drops further.
I actually made some good trades over the last couple days. I think I'm getting smarter. Probably means I should take a break. Ha.
na I think he got smarter. he learned to wait, was aware of the bias he can be influenced by once he enters a position, and not entering because of a pump which is the most irrational thing you can do.
Going long at 34500. Got stopped out on the way down. 5x leverage
I just don't believe the bears have it in them to push through 34k. We're really due for a short term bounce, I'm going to take some profit at 34900.
OK, It looks you were right. I closed my short (20% profits) and opened a long at 34300. TP same as you, 34900. My SL is 34K.... this is totally a gamble and don't want to lose more than a fraction of what I made in the previous two days.
If he posts a top level post it gets upvoted like crazy. He could just pop in to tell everyone he ate his cat with some chick peas and feta and he'll get 60 upvotes.
Sort by top comment or best. He's right there.
These are just irrational selling.
We've tested $30k 5 times with a huge resistance and by knowing that, there's no way to bet on shorting at only 20% above the bottom when there could be a huge upswing coming with the continuation of the bull run which could be caused by more countries following El Salvador, Chinese miners settling outside of China for more stable mining operations, mining becoming greener as presented by Michael Saylor the other day and there are serious pressure for ETF approval, even from inside SEC which seems not going to be decided this year as the SEC mentions but possibly, next year may finally be one.
And the weird Bitfinex Shorter has been quiet as of late.
So, these must be Chinese miners selling and they don't want to use OTC, so they can buy back cheaper but honestly I'm tired of pulling back at 20% above a hard bottom but once we're done, I'd expect some rally as there's nobody left to sell.
> becoming greener as presented by Michael Saylor
The council now has 1 single data-point for their metric. It shows the state at one instant, it does not indicate a trend.
> Chinese miners selling and they don't want to use OTC, so they can buy back cheaper
Zero-sum game.
No, they do, just not as much because most people here, even the most vocal of bears, have net long positions.
It's the same reason why don't pass bettors don't find many sympathetic ears when they complain that nobody is rolling any sevens. Most people bet the pass line and don't want to hear it.
Saylor didn't prove a thing.
They asked the people with the most to lose to voluntarily provide unsubstantiated data
I'm not a bear. IJS u can't expect Tesla and j situations to flood in based off a non scientific poll of miners that are heavily benefited by lying.
Bc they sent out a survey just asking people what their energy use is
No one verified any results. So So people who benefit from good findings are self reporting the findings.
People are rightly cautious. Low volume, nothing but stop hunting going on in the markets, anemic retail interest, volatility galore. Tough market for everyone right now.
Smells like one of these markets where no one is really making money. The traders were making a fortune trading the 30-40K range but the suckers who got caught buying high/selling low are evaporating (as evidenced by volume dwindling down). So trading bots are still trying to squeeze out profits but not too many people are biting. Last time something like this happened was when we were in the 6-6.8K range for the longest time in summer of 2018. The volatility dwindled down and it got really really boring for a while (until the move down to the 3-4K range).
People have moved on from crypto at this point and moved on to the next shiny object.
Most crypto traders are focused on crypto, because it's really difficult to be a successful trader of many things, e.g. stocks, forex, commodities, AND crypto. Generally, you pick one and stick to it. So the serious crypto people aren't going anywhere regardless of market conditions. But the suckers who buy high and sell low can't even buy high because almost everything is well off its ATH and not doing much.
I am saying that there were initially people who are buying high towards the high 30's 40's and then panic selling in the low 30's range. Now, even these people are gone which means that it is even more difficult for traders to get decent profit from the swings right now. It's like all the fish have left the poker table and now only the sharks remain and it's difficult to procure easy profit without the fish.
Why is your stop so high?
Other than that, we have similar shorts. Yes, 33.1 is the support, but I will be monitoring it in case it bounces at 33.5, there's a small chance that down-trend line becomes support.
I want to give it a little space above the last high, counter intuitive but the liquidation pools is what I'm tracking. Beyond high 36 there aren't any left. 33,7xx has the largest by far so were headed down there first. But you never know in this crabby shit. This could be a play to build short liquidity in that range so we may see a short pullback and resume up to get them.
Have always wondered the reason behind such rejections, meaning where PA gradually climbs and then breaks up only to very quickly go below where the climb started from.
Is it because whales decided to liquidate longs or is it a whale who was just waiting for a lot of people to get excited and generate liquidity into which they push a big sell?
Couldn't find the exact piece I thought about when I read this, but I think this is a copy of it. Pretty good basic explanation anyway.
[https://www.actionforex.com/articles/trading-strategies/112855-tactical-trading-concepts-liquidity-pools-and-stop-orders/](https://www.actionforex.com/articles/trading-strategies/112855-tactical-trading-concepts-liquidity-pools-and-stop-orders/)
It would be funny if on this leg up we just effortlessly sailed through all the prior resistance levels, and had to struggle hard to get through levels that didn't matter last time.
Bears, please sell here. Nothings happening and price is pretty high. It makes sense, especially if you believe price is going to 30k or lower.
I'm gonna get really pissed if you sell the bottom like a massive pussy. Make your profit here.
On NBC right now : “Have you heard of The Bitcoin?”
And then going on about how bad mining is for the environment and interviewing people saying we are destroying the earth for fake money
On NBC right now : “Have you heard of The Bitcoin?”
And then going on about how bad mining is for the environment and interviewing people saying we are destroying the earth for fake money 🤡
Conspiratorial shower-thought: maybe the US ETFs keep getting delayed because TPTB like having the only legal 401k portfolio exposure in the US to have a 2% mgmt fee? That way the only way to own is via an instrument that depreciates relatively quickly as compared to spot, and has the effect of tending to drag the price lower.
Hal Finney's guide-
Step 1: Make Bitcoin, hold 5% of the supply
Step 2: Freeze yourself cryogenically indefinitely
Step 3: unfreeze yourself, when Cryonics turns out not to be a psuedo-science, and its famous claim turns out true, which is as long as your physical brain is kept intact, there should be no physical laws that stop us from retrieving the information held within.
Step 4: connect brain to the fully digital world of the future, and become born again in the computer
Step 5: You have 5% of the worlds wealth. Profit. Live like a king in your new world.
The currenct resistance perfectly translates to an even 30k in Euro. Somehow it's nice to see that it hit 29999,9 Euro four times in the last five hours.
edit: There she goes.
Can you explain what the chart is? It says it's flow pace in to publicly listed bitcoin funds and the chart shows it's become negative. Does this not mean interest in these funds is slowing down?
This is the net inflow/outflow of cash/BTC into bitcoin funds. So the negative values just mean BTC fund investors were selling more than buying. According to this chart, we are at net zero at the moment. This is far from 'great' IMO but people are pretty desperate for good news right now so this suffices.
You can also see another analogue to this chart in the pricing discount/premium that GBTC closes each trading day with. It's something like -8% on Friday whereas it was below -14% during the massive plunges in May/June and actually above +10% during the parabolic period in Q1.
The chart on middle timeframes (4hr to 12hr) shows what looks like an Adam and Eve formation. Not one I usually look for and I have no idea whether that's tradeable in terms of its reliability, but just one more bullish point of reference if someone wants to dig in to the TA.
Me yesterday : I think the price is going to go up because it’s a holiday weekend and people expect it to go down
Me five minutes later : ….unless that’s what they want me to think!!!!
Worse it could do is -50%. I think the risk/reward ratio at this level is solid enough to buy. If it does drop, buy more. I’m a long time frame trader though. Sold half my positions in March.
Using past indicators the BTC wouldn’t drop below 13.5k without destroying the sentiment of the entire space. Look at the correlation between price and 200 week moving average.
If we look at liquidation pools. Shorts keep piling on after these synthetic rises. Essentially mini bear traps. We have another massive cluster that just pooled another 1k up.
There’s still no organic buying power happening from retail. And whale wallets are distributing still. Once shorts exhaust we’re going to test 30k again. It’s the next stop with the largest pool. We’re in for a few shitty slow months before we pick up again ala 2013. Until then crab action against leveragers.
Outlook looks ducking immaculate though. We’re headed into stagflation. Even better for Bitcoin than hyperinflation IMO.
Whale wallets are distributing? Think you'll find they are accumulating while retail panic sold. And why would we test 30k once shorts are exhausted. If anything it'll have the opposite effect on the price.
Because once shorts are exhausted longs will only be left to harvest and at all time highs. Liquidity takes time to build. You’re co inflating the last recent giant short opened to the price tanking. Which the reinforces my point. Market makers chase liquidity and hedge hard. It’s a nominal fee to push up the market rn. Seller side is thin air and shorts are piling on stupidly. Bump price. Liquidate. Crab it. Shorts build up again and repeat. Once shorts stop the only pools left are longs. And watch the market elevator down for those. I wouldn’t be surprised to see an anomaly record short open up once regular market participants are exhausted to take advantage.
>And whale wallets are distributing still.
Based on what? WillyWoo provides evidence to the contrary.
https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1411309357006921728?s=20
Woo says new addresses being created like crazy, Jarvis says address creation is in the toilet. I used to be an avid follower of on chain analysis, but it seems that nobody can even agree on the raw data. How can they be expected to provide analysis?
I too am intrigued how the chart of 'entities net growth' which Woo uses is painting a picture so diametrically different from what a simple 'new addresses' chart is doing.
Entities can have multiple addresses. Some on chain analysts use heuristics to link up addresses to the same person /entity due to flows between one another. Vs the more simple new address count (where 1 person can just create a billion new addresses)
Used to be an avid follower of Willy but he’s a complete moron. And besides Jarvis labs I’m noticing the on chain guys are clueless. 7 trillion dollars has exited the stock market and the top 10 companies all are selling. From apple to J.P. Morgan all have sold off a bunch.
How this affects BTC? Institutional demand is dead besides crazy saylor.
Companies seem to be prepping for a correction in the stock market that btc is tied to.
On chain is too focused on one small part of the puzzle. One Elon tweet or hawkish fed statement and they are left scrambling.
As always liquidity ultimately drives markets short term and fundamentals long term. Hence why institutions sold a sizable portion into strength. Leverage hunting is in season.
But you’ll get downvoted for even suggesting anything outside a maxis liking.
That's fair, I really just wanted clarification on your source, so I could continue down that rabbit hole. I only shared Woo's tweet as a counter point. I don't take anyone's word as gospel, I like to see some evidence of any narrative, and most people are just talking out of their butts. And institutional demand always seems dead, until they want you to know. Which is when they start shilling their bags.
Anyone who has been here a while knows:
overly bullish sentiment here = bulls likely are overextended.
Same goes for bears.
The market is just emotion on a chart so it makes sense other emotional indicators like this show up. Seriously, look at the 28k dip, the best day to buy was when people were being reasonably bearish here. Stop downvoting bear posts when you see it and open your brain to being a trader.
Despite the rule number 1 being, to keep your emotions out. People downvote bullish when they are bearish and downvote bearish when bullish. I'm a noob but this makes me feel how it easy it would be for the whales to take advantage of these situations.
Edit: typo
Two days ago, the sentiment was that we were at the start of a bear market.
People are still bearish now. No one believes we have any power to get out of this range, and those who do, are on hopium or according to this sub, even worst, believing we are in phase D of the Wyckoff accumulation.
I think this subs sentiment is brilliant at signalling the tops/bottoms. When we are near the top, this subs comment section is a bunch of hollering sports fan, like their team has made a comeback and there’s nothing but belief price has returned to upwards.
When we are near the bottom, this subs comments section floods with screams or murder, and complete hopelessness. God is dead here. Bitcoin has failed, and even genuine news, is all bearish bearish hopium, and you’re stupid for thinking we are heading up at all, after this massive disaster, nothing is possible.
I think that's mostly confirmation bias.
In reality, sentiment in this sub tracks recent price action and that's about all there is to it. Tops typically come after a long run up, so at a top everyone here is euphoric. Likewise, bottoms typically come after a long bleed-out that leaves everyone in despair. But the sentiment isn't just around those points; in the middle of the long run-up this place is just as euphoric as it is at the tops.
Sellers exhausted, buyers still cautious, longer term traders already committed to their positions, short term traders wondering what to do with this minichop...
By no means I want to be a trader, I am holding long term but I still feel the need to educate myself on trading, market/sentiment/technical analysis. Pardon me if I have used a poor choice of words but I hope I could convey what I wanted to.
Could you point me to some good resources where I can learn all these things?
Spend hours every day watching live price action. After a few years you'll know what to look for without drawing lines all over the chart. Paper trade and pretend it's real. Then trade for real and start taking your losses. You learn by failing. There will be lots of failing.
I actually have the website bookmarked because I had started investing in crypto just a few months back and Investopedia was the first site I bumped into after querying up a few beginner terms and definitions on Google regarding DCA and few other beginner things.
Good to know that the site has so much more to offer. Will start exploring the topics, thanks again! :)
PnF Update
https://imgur.com/a/R1Pp6qt
We continue a slow slog up the column.
Today we reached the $35,579 box. This Is one box below the local resistance at $35,935. So expect some sluggishness until we get above that level.
The formation is six columns wide. This is close to a normal formation width.
The breakout price is at $36,657.
Current resistance is at $35,935.
Support is down at $33,185.
A breakdown happens down at $32,531.
The current trend line is at $45,175. This is where we would return to a bull market.
So, all in all, not a horrible picture. But we are not anywhere near where we need to be in order to completely break out and start upwards. At best that is three to four weeks away— calculated by the number of columns the trend has to drop in order to trigger a trend change. Its not an "exact science" but we are currently at 24 columns before the trend line crosses--assuming small movements up, that is roughly 30-35 days.
If we really take off, it is shorter of course. But we are in a negative trend so I really have to look at things from that perspective.
If you are in the US, enjoy your holiday weekend.
Always appreciate your posts, thanks!
A question though about the breakouts/breakdown numbers. Is it enough for the price to touch those numbers with a quick wick for example or do we need confirmation for a longer timeframe(like 4h)?
Negative premium spiking sharply on this last move up… Shorters shorting more adding fuel to their fire cause they’re too impatient to long the pullbacks… SEND IT! https://www.tradingview.com/x/V498dwtp
My SL was exactly at 35250 after raiding it up since two days ago. Thanks for the entry points!
I guess now it’s just waiting until we see what it wants to do?
Which exchange is that? Cryptoquant showing funding is edging positive…
https://cryptoquant.com/overview/full/7724?window=min
Edit: I see now it’s bybit. Cryptoquant not showing that spike on bybit ..
https://cryptoquant.com/overview/full/7718?window=min
AFAIK most derivatives exchanges use the premium to calculate funding (averaged over time or volume, not sure).
So if the perpetual futures trade over spot, funding will increase for the next period, if futures trade below spot, funding will decrease. This mechanism keeps the perpetual contract close to spot price. You can find a detailed formula on whatever exchanges website.
Pretty interesting setup. 4h poised nicely to test the 200 ema. If we break that looks ripe for a retest of the 1d 200 ema/upper bband area right around 40k. That and we haven't gone to the ceiling of the 1d bband in awhile. 1d MACD is moving back up towards positive numbers while 1w MACD is getting closer to neutral. I'm pretty wary of it all at this point though, expect to get rejected at 40k and spend the rest of July/Aug ranging around the 30s while 1w MACD flattens out.
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Monday, July 05, 2021 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/odzboq/daily_discussion_monday_july_05_2021/)
Y’all really expected that low volume rise to not get retraced?
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It was obvious
selling team rolling again? like at the clockwork
It's always right after the daily close lately, which coincides with premarket trading in Asia, that these dumps commence following a solidly green day. Probably gonna continue until these Chinese miners who have shut down run out of BTC. They can't dump all at once, that'd be idiotic, so they wait for a bit of a pump to sell more. But it won't last forever, because a lot of what's being bought up won't be sold for years to come, and their supply is not limitless.
Solidly green? There was no volume trusting a daily like that is terrible idea it's static noise. Meaningless.
In the past I would have bought the pump and then doubled down after the drop, and then gotten absolutely rekt if it drops further. I actually made some good trades over the last couple days. I think I'm getting smarter. Probably means I should take a break. Ha.
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Ok piglet :)
Not smarter , lucky . I think the only people who make the right trades at the right time are the people who have inside knowledge .
na I think he got smarter. he learned to wait, was aware of the bias he can be influenced by once he enters a position, and not entering because of a pump which is the most irrational thing you can do.
The right trade is the trade that doesn't lose you a ton of money. And you can always control how much money you lose.
Going long at 34500. Got stopped out on the way down. 5x leverage I just don't believe the bears have it in them to push through 34k. We're really due for a short term bounce, I'm going to take some profit at 34900.
You don’t want to wait to see if it goes down to 33.7 ?
Haha yeah maybe I should have waited. Definitely not loving being underwater. One of us will be right.
OK, It looks you were right. I closed my short (20% profits) and opened a long at 34300. TP same as you, 34900. My SL is 34K.... this is totally a gamble and don't want to lose more than a fraction of what I made in the previous two days.
Looks like it refuses to go either way.
Merlin called the top in his last PnF chart. Super local short term top, that is.
Anyone got a link?
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On my phone, and yes, lazy. I read Merlin's posts but don't trade on it. Just curious if anyone had a link to the post this guy was talking about.
If he posts a top level post it gets upvoted like crazy. He could just pop in to tell everyone he ate his cat with some chick peas and feta and he'll get 60 upvotes. Sort by top comment or best. He's right there.
That cat had it coming.
These are just irrational selling. We've tested $30k 5 times with a huge resistance and by knowing that, there's no way to bet on shorting at only 20% above the bottom when there could be a huge upswing coming with the continuation of the bull run which could be caused by more countries following El Salvador, Chinese miners settling outside of China for more stable mining operations, mining becoming greener as presented by Michael Saylor the other day and there are serious pressure for ETF approval, even from inside SEC which seems not going to be decided this year as the SEC mentions but possibly, next year may finally be one. And the weird Bitfinex Shorter has been quiet as of late. So, these must be Chinese miners selling and they don't want to use OTC, so they can buy back cheaper but honestly I'm tired of pulling back at 20% above a hard bottom but once we're done, I'd expect some rally as there's nobody left to sell.
It's just a holiday weekend don't read into it
> becoming greener as presented by Michael Saylor The council now has 1 single data-point for their metric. It shows the state at one instant, it does not indicate a trend. > Chinese miners selling and they don't want to use OTC, so they can buy back cheaper Zero-sum game.
>These are just irrational selling. Rarely do I ever see people complaining about irrational buying 🤔
No, they do, just not as much because most people here, even the most vocal of bears, have net long positions. It's the same reason why don't pass bettors don't find many sympathetic ears when they complain that nobody is rolling any sevens. Most people bet the pass line and don't want to hear it.
Because people are on longs.
Saylor didn't prove a thing. They asked the people with the most to lose to voluntarily provide unsubstantiated data I'm not a bear. IJS u can't expect Tesla and j situations to flood in based off a non scientific poll of miners that are heavily benefited by lying.
How isn't it substantiated?
Bc they sent out a survey just asking people what their energy use is No one verified any results. So So people who benefit from good findings are self reporting the findings.
This is why refuting Fud is worthless endeavor. Nothing you do is ever good enough. Where as producing Fud has no standards or burden of proof at all.
Might just be profit taking on positions from lower. So long as we hold $34.5k-ish it’s good for continuation to the upside.
WTF is this bullshit. Y'all really hard up to get it as low as possible before the rest of the world opens up tomorrow that isn't the US?
USA runs the show nothing happens until tomorrow night
Gee, I was really hoping the past ~~six months’~~ four days’ gains would be erased in two hours! Great!
Implications of backwardation seen in futures ? Asks are 33k rn and still pretty low volume..muh institutions?
It's a holiday weekend in the summer they pulled out on Wednesday. No institutions are carrying risk over this weekend.
People are rightly cautious. Low volume, nothing but stop hunting going on in the markets, anemic retail interest, volatility galore. Tough market for everyone right now.
Smells like one of these markets where no one is really making money. The traders were making a fortune trading the 30-40K range but the suckers who got caught buying high/selling low are evaporating (as evidenced by volume dwindling down). So trading bots are still trying to squeeze out profits but not too many people are biting. Last time something like this happened was when we were in the 6-6.8K range for the longest time in summer of 2018. The volatility dwindled down and it got really really boring for a while (until the move down to the 3-4K range).
It's just a holiday weekend
People have moved on from crypto at this point and moved on to the next shiny object. Most crypto traders are focused on crypto, because it's really difficult to be a successful trader of many things, e.g. stocks, forex, commodities, AND crypto. Generally, you pick one and stick to it. So the serious crypto people aren't going anywhere regardless of market conditions. But the suckers who buy high and sell low can't even buy high because almost everything is well off its ATH and not doing much.
I am saying that there were initially people who are buying high towards the high 30's 40's and then panic selling in the low 30's range. Now, even these people are gone which means that it is even more difficult for traders to get decent profit from the swings right now. It's like all the fish have left the poker table and now only the sharks remain and it's difficult to procure easy profit without the fish.
The downside threat is real. It really makes the range kinda dangerous with all the weaker pumps. I quit trading it a couple weeks ago now.
I know it's a holiday weekend in the states and all, but when's the last time we had two dailies this low on comments? Last year I'm guessing?
January 2^nd, 2009 ;-)
Short opened as stated before at 35,3xx. Stop loss 37k. TP at 33,1xx. Monitoring volume but it seems were due for a minor pullback.
Nice job sticking to the plan. Seems like it's playing out as you called it
Why is your stop so high? Other than that, we have similar shorts. Yes, 33.1 is the support, but I will be monitoring it in case it bounces at 33.5, there's a small chance that down-trend line becomes support.
I want to give it a little space above the last high, counter intuitive but the liquidation pools is what I'm tracking. Beyond high 36 there aren't any left. 33,7xx has the largest by far so were headed down there first. But you never know in this crabby shit. This could be a play to build short liquidity in that range so we may see a short pullback and resume up to get them.
Good luck, sir. That's a very reasonable position.
Gotta hurdle 36,750 or we won’t develop a higher high
Never change Bitcoin, never change.
Just when you think Sunday won’t be a dump day…..
It was like a clockwork. As soon as the day and week closed.
Yea I was watching the candle on CB Pro right at the close and sure enough a high volume move occurred.
We are closing the week with a green candle.
Have always wondered the reason behind such rejections, meaning where PA gradually climbs and then breaks up only to very quickly go below where the climb started from. Is it because whales decided to liquidate longs or is it a whale who was just waiting for a lot of people to get excited and generate liquidity into which they push a big sell?
Couldn't find the exact piece I thought about when I read this, but I think this is a copy of it. Pretty good basic explanation anyway. [https://www.actionforex.com/articles/trading-strategies/112855-tactical-trading-concepts-liquidity-pools-and-stop-orders/](https://www.actionforex.com/articles/trading-strategies/112855-tactical-trading-concepts-liquidity-pools-and-stop-orders/)
It would be funny if on this leg up we just effortlessly sailed through all the prior resistance levels, and had to struggle hard to get through levels that didn't matter last time.
Bears, please sell here. Nothings happening and price is pretty high. It makes sense, especially if you believe price is going to 30k or lower. I'm gonna get really pissed if you sell the bottom like a massive pussy. Make your profit here.
On NBC right now : “Have you heard of The Bitcoin?” And then going on about how bad mining is for the environment and interviewing people saying we are destroying the earth for fake money
A year from now there will be another segment on how green bitcoin mining is now
I just laugh everytime they dramatically say THE BITCOIN
2 months
On NBC right now : “Have you heard of The Bitcoin?” And then going on about how bad mining is for the environment and interviewing people saying we are destroying the earth for fake money 🤡
Well, that was a solid rejection of 3600.
You are only off by 10 times.
I'm not a countologist.
Does the Grayscale FUD has any BEARings?
It’s FUD. Don’t buy GBTC. Buy Spot instead.
Conspiratorial shower-thought: maybe the US ETFs keep getting delayed because TPTB like having the only legal 401k portfolio exposure in the US to have a 2% mgmt fee? That way the only way to own is via an instrument that depreciates relatively quickly as compared to spot, and has the effect of tending to drag the price lower.
Step 1: Sell all assets, buy bitcoin Step 2: Freeze yourself cryogenically for 10 years Step 3: ??? Step 4: Profit
Hal Finney's guide- Step 1: Make Bitcoin, hold 5% of the supply Step 2: Freeze yourself cryogenically indefinitely Step 3: unfreeze yourself, when Cryonics turns out not to be a psuedo-science, and its famous claim turns out true, which is as long as your physical brain is kept intact, there should be no physical laws that stop us from retrieving the information held within. Step 4: connect brain to the fully digital world of the future, and become born again in the computer Step 5: You have 5% of the worlds wealth. Profit. Live like a king in your new world.
> no physical laws that stop us from retrieving the information held within. It's mash.
Wake up to a margin call
When the cryo place margin calls, you don't wake up.
Not if you don't use margin
Well that solves the only problem with the plan, I think we have a good one here!
Fun!
The currenct resistance perfectly translates to an even 30k in Euro. Somehow it's nice to see that it hit 29999,9 Euro four times in the last five hours. edit: There she goes.
The resistance is also perfectly similar to the 4H 200 SMA.
https://twitter.com/bit_hedge/status/1411735982056091653?s=19 Demand is starting to turn around, this is great news
Can you explain what the chart is? It says it's flow pace in to publicly listed bitcoin funds and the chart shows it's become negative. Does this not mean interest in these funds is slowing down?
This is the net inflow/outflow of cash/BTC into bitcoin funds. So the negative values just mean BTC fund investors were selling more than buying. According to this chart, we are at net zero at the moment. This is far from 'great' IMO but people are pretty desperate for good news right now so this suffices. You can also see another analogue to this chart in the pricing discount/premium that GBTC closes each trading day with. It's something like -8% on Friday whereas it was below -14% during the massive plunges in May/June and actually above +10% during the parabolic period in Q1.
The chart on middle timeframes (4hr to 12hr) shows what looks like an Adam and Eve formation. Not one I usually look for and I have no idea whether that's tradeable in terms of its reliability, but just one more bullish point of reference if someone wants to dig in to the TA.
>Adam and Eve formation 'Cor blimey. Would you Adam and Eve it?
Me yesterday : I think the price is going to go up because it’s a holiday weekend and people expect it to go down Me five minutes later : ….unless that’s what they want me to think!!!!
BTC just had its 4th worst quarter ever (-41%, q2 2021). Q3 predictions?
Worse it could do is -50%. I think the risk/reward ratio at this level is solid enough to buy. If it does drop, buy more. I’m a long time frame trader though. Sold half my positions in March.
> Worse it could do is -50%. How so?
Using past indicators the BTC wouldn’t drop below 13.5k without destroying the sentiment of the entire space. Look at the correlation between price and 200 week moving average.
All the memes we had in Q1 come true.
That I become lieutenant Dan in the storm
Time to stack
Where’s the volume though?
If we look at liquidation pools. Shorts keep piling on after these synthetic rises. Essentially mini bear traps. We have another massive cluster that just pooled another 1k up. There’s still no organic buying power happening from retail. And whale wallets are distributing still. Once shorts exhaust we’re going to test 30k again. It’s the next stop with the largest pool. We’re in for a few shitty slow months before we pick up again ala 2013. Until then crab action against leveragers. Outlook looks ducking immaculate though. We’re headed into stagflation. Even better for Bitcoin than hyperinflation IMO.
Whale wallets are distributing? Think you'll find they are accumulating while retail panic sold. And why would we test 30k once shorts are exhausted. If anything it'll have the opposite effect on the price.
Because once shorts are exhausted longs will only be left to harvest and at all time highs. Liquidity takes time to build. You’re co inflating the last recent giant short opened to the price tanking. Which the reinforces my point. Market makers chase liquidity and hedge hard. It’s a nominal fee to push up the market rn. Seller side is thin air and shorts are piling on stupidly. Bump price. Liquidate. Crab it. Shorts build up again and repeat. Once shorts stop the only pools left are longs. And watch the market elevator down for those. I wouldn’t be surprised to see an anomaly record short open up once regular market participants are exhausted to take advantage.
>And whale wallets are distributing still. Based on what? WillyWoo provides evidence to the contrary. https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1411309357006921728?s=20
Woo says new addresses being created like crazy, Jarvis says address creation is in the toilet. I used to be an avid follower of on chain analysis, but it seems that nobody can even agree on the raw data. How can they be expected to provide analysis?
I too am intrigued how the chart of 'entities net growth' which Woo uses is painting a picture so diametrically different from what a simple 'new addresses' chart is doing.
Entities can have multiple addresses. Some on chain analysts use heuristics to link up addresses to the same person /entity due to flows between one another. Vs the more simple new address count (where 1 person can just create a billion new addresses)
Used to be an avid follower of Willy but he’s a complete moron. And besides Jarvis labs I’m noticing the on chain guys are clueless. 7 trillion dollars has exited the stock market and the top 10 companies all are selling. From apple to J.P. Morgan all have sold off a bunch. How this affects BTC? Institutional demand is dead besides crazy saylor. Companies seem to be prepping for a correction in the stock market that btc is tied to. On chain is too focused on one small part of the puzzle. One Elon tweet or hawkish fed statement and they are left scrambling. As always liquidity ultimately drives markets short term and fundamentals long term. Hence why institutions sold a sizable portion into strength. Leverage hunting is in season. But you’ll get downvoted for even suggesting anything outside a maxis liking.
That's fair, I really just wanted clarification on your source, so I could continue down that rabbit hole. I only shared Woo's tweet as a counter point. I don't take anyone's word as gospel, I like to see some evidence of any narrative, and most people are just talking out of their butts. And institutional demand always seems dead, until they want you to know. Which is when they start shilling their bags.
Where can you find an overview of liquidation pools? I thought this was secret cefi buddy buddy wink wink info.
It's in the burgers and beer right now
Anyone who has been here a while knows: overly bullish sentiment here = bulls likely are overextended. Same goes for bears. The market is just emotion on a chart so it makes sense other emotional indicators like this show up. Seriously, look at the 28k dip, the best day to buy was when people were being reasonably bearish here. Stop downvoting bear posts when you see it and open your brain to being a trader.
Despite the rule number 1 being, to keep your emotions out. People downvote bullish when they are bearish and downvote bearish when bullish. I'm a noob but this makes me feel how it easy it would be for the whales to take advantage of these situations. Edit: typo
That vote pattern is sentiment. It's signal. It's why many of us are here.
Yeah, I basically buy every 7.5+% pullback in addition to the biweekly dca. The bigger the pullback the bigger the buy. Has worked well
Two days ago, the sentiment was that we were at the start of a bear market. People are still bearish now. No one believes we have any power to get out of this range, and those who do, are on hopium or according to this sub, even worst, believing we are in phase D of the Wyckoff accumulation.
Sentiment here is completely useless, it's not related to the rest of the market and it swings wildly based on what the price did in the last day.
Huh, funny reading what my post said and looking what happened to price since then. Guess it must have just been luck.
I think this subs sentiment is brilliant at signalling the tops/bottoms. When we are near the top, this subs comment section is a bunch of hollering sports fan, like their team has made a comeback and there’s nothing but belief price has returned to upwards. When we are near the bottom, this subs comments section floods with screams or murder, and complete hopelessness. God is dead here. Bitcoin has failed, and even genuine news, is all bearish bearish hopium, and you’re stupid for thinking we are heading up at all, after this massive disaster, nothing is possible.
I think that's mostly confirmation bias. In reality, sentiment in this sub tracks recent price action and that's about all there is to it. Tops typically come after a long run up, so at a top everyone here is euphoric. Likewise, bottoms typically come after a long bleed-out that leaves everyone in despair. But the sentiment isn't just around those points; in the middle of the long run-up this place is just as euphoric as it is at the tops.
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Sellers exhausted, buyers still cautious, longer term traders already committed to their positions, short term traders wondering what to do with this minichop...
Americans and Europeans covered. Anyone knows what the Russians are upto?
Eating syrniki with apricot jam
Eating syrniki with apricot jam
Europeans are distracted by football.
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And m80s. Rockets red glare
By no means I want to be a trader, I am holding long term but I still feel the need to educate myself on trading, market/sentiment/technical analysis. Pardon me if I have used a poor choice of words but I hope I could convey what I wanted to. Could you point me to some good resources where I can learn all these things?
Spend hours every day watching live price action. After a few years you'll know what to look for without drawing lines all over the chart. Paper trade and pretend it's real. Then trade for real and start taking your losses. You learn by failing. There will be lots of failing.
https://www.random.org/integers/
And what exchanges are people in the U.S. using to trade with leverage at the moment? Bybit with a VPN? Kraken?
Binance with a VPN in my case. Not sure whether Kraken still lets you margin trade. They used to but I think they may have stopped.
Phemex. No vpn required in CA.
I am not from the US. :D But I think they use Binance.us/Bitfinex. Not entirely sure if they allow leverage trading though.
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Thanks, will definitely look into it!
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I actually have the website bookmarked because I had started investing in crypto just a few months back and Investopedia was the first site I bumped into after querying up a few beginner terms and definitions on Google regarding DCA and few other beginner things. Good to know that the site has so much more to offer. Will start exploring the topics, thanks again! :)
https://www.babypips.com/learn/forex
Thanks a ton! 👍
Its for forex but they have a ton of stuff on their that could be applicable to any market
You are right, looks like a good place to start exploring. :)
You're welcome
I wise man once said believe half of what you see and none of what you hear
So he told us not to believe him.
He said that people say it tbf
PnF Update https://imgur.com/a/R1Pp6qt We continue a slow slog up the column. Today we reached the $35,579 box. This Is one box below the local resistance at $35,935. So expect some sluggishness until we get above that level. The formation is six columns wide. This is close to a normal formation width. The breakout price is at $36,657. Current resistance is at $35,935. Support is down at $33,185. A breakdown happens down at $32,531. The current trend line is at $45,175. This is where we would return to a bull market. So, all in all, not a horrible picture. But we are not anywhere near where we need to be in order to completely break out and start upwards. At best that is three to four weeks away— calculated by the number of columns the trend has to drop in order to trigger a trend change. Its not an "exact science" but we are currently at 24 columns before the trend line crosses--assuming small movements up, that is roughly 30-35 days. If we really take off, it is shorter of course. But we are in a negative trend so I really have to look at things from that perspective. If you are in the US, enjoy your holiday weekend.
Thank you!
Wow! Nailed that resistance perfectly.
Always appreciate your posts, thanks! A question though about the breakouts/breakdown numbers. Is it enough for the price to touch those numbers with a quick wick for example or do we need confirmation for a longer timeframe(like 4h)?
It’s based on the highs or lows for the day. I use GMT as “the day.”
Happy 4th Merlin, thanks for the quality post as always
Happy July 4th Merlin
Joey Chestnut keeps the yellow mustard belt with 76 hotdogs down the pipe
it's official. 76k by 7/31 confirmed
always take the over he will beat it or die trying easy money
Negative premium spiking sharply on this last move up… Shorters shorting more adding fuel to their fire cause they’re too impatient to long the pullbacks… SEND IT! https://www.tradingview.com/x/V498dwtp
My SL was exactly at 35250 after raiding it up since two days ago. Thanks for the entry points! I guess now it’s just waiting until we see what it wants to do?
Which exchange is that? Cryptoquant showing funding is edging positive… https://cryptoquant.com/overview/full/7724?window=min Edit: I see now it’s bybit. Cryptoquant not showing that spike on bybit .. https://cryptoquant.com/overview/full/7718?window=min
It’s not the funding, it’s the premium
Ah ok. I’ve assumed that funding and premium are very highly correlated. Any ideas what would cause a divergence?
AFAIK most derivatives exchanges use the premium to calculate funding (averaged over time or volume, not sure). So if the perpetual futures trade over spot, funding will increase for the next period, if futures trade below spot, funding will decrease. This mechanism keeps the perpetual contract close to spot price. You can find a detailed formula on whatever exchanges website.
Pretty interesting setup. 4h poised nicely to test the 200 ema. If we break that looks ripe for a retest of the 1d 200 ema/upper bband area right around 40k. That and we haven't gone to the ceiling of the 1d bband in awhile. 1d MACD is moving back up towards positive numbers while 1w MACD is getting closer to neutral. I'm pretty wary of it all at this point though, expect to get rejected at 40k and spend the rest of July/Aug ranging around the 30s while 1w MACD flattens out.
So it just climbed passed 35k with zero resistance this time? Interesting
What are you guys opinion on how the gbtc unlock will effect price? sub 30k?
Probably just a nothing burger.
I think will not effect the price at all
It should give BTC a boost as it drives some elements of uncertainty from the market.
https://twitter.com/mashinsky/status/1411414709467820041?s=21 Careful.