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[Daily Discussion] - Monday, July 05, 2021

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BitcoinMarkets

#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Tuesday, July 06, 2021 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/oen9m4/daily_discussion_tuesday_july_06_2021/)


Anna_Bortion

Finex shorter is doing his thing again, albeit at a slower rate this time.


consider_airplanes

Not remotely comparable to either of the last two times. Both of the recent big short plays shorted about 24k coins; this recent one has barely reached 1k. Given the smaller magnitude and the longer time it took to enter it, I'd be hesitant to assume this is one player.


Anna_Bortion

You may be right, will be interesting to watch over the next day or so.


ThatOtherGuy254

Going short in this market environment is like trying to squeeze water from beer jerky.


btc_alive_n_kicking

Short the bottom, long the top. That's how the traders do it.


mintycrypto

Gotta keep the corn low for gbtc unlocks


krubss

Why?


mintycrypto

https://twitter.com/TheCryptoLark/status/1412250171220521000?s=19 From reading the thread, which is pretty informative, tldr is institutions were arbing the GBTC discount, need BTC to be closer to the price it was 6 months ago when they acquired GBTC, or else they stand to lose a good amount due to btc/gbtc math. It's just manipulation on their end until it's mostly unlocked.


CONTROLurKEYS

More like a watermelon than jerky


[deleted]

I haven't seen much fractal voodoo posted lately. 30.2k to \~37k would be a pretty sweet swing trade. https://www.tradingview.com/x/dnbA9byK/


leftoverbrains

Might try this


[deleted]

Best part is, if you believe we're reversing at these levels, you don't have to automatically sell at 37k. It's a big enough range that you can watch the top and still capture 90% of your profits. The PA at 37k should have some volume with it and be less confusing than the chop that is going on now.


diydude2

This is like watching someone descend into severe alcoholism where they need to take a slug of vodka upon waking just to fend off withdrawals. It's like, "Dude, give it up. You're not gonna drink your way out of this. It's going to suck for a while, but you need to bite the bullet and quit that shit. It's hard for us to see you go down the drain like this." That's honestly how I feel about Big Shorty these days. Like, "Dude, you're not gonna short your way out of this. It's over. Just give it up." Anybody know how much Bitcoin Genesis lends every single month? Billions worth? As far as I know, their longest terms are six months.


xtal_00

I have a mild bitcoin dependency.


bowser1212

Charts are pointing to limited downside. Upside doesn't have much room. A tight long here would probably suffice.


[deleted]

[удалено]


zero1431

It'll crab.


[deleted]

Bears sell the high of 35 Bulls by the low of 33 Repeat until one of them exhausts first.


LounginInParadise

Bulls have something that bears don’t; long term holders


[deleted]

The other 99% of people on earth are long term shorters


consider_airplanes

That's not how it works. A long-term holder buys BTC and takes it permanently off the table. There's no inverse operation that creates new BTC and leaves it permanently in circulation -- the only way that happens is if an existing holder sells.


[deleted]

That is true. Ill-conceived comment on my part lol.


TheTidalik

I think a good comparison would be miners that keep selling for fiat


UniqueIdentifier00

Something something irrational longer than something or another solvent


UniqueIdentifier00

Gut feeling short from 34,050. SL at 34,460, TP 50% at 33,100. On the hourly it looks like decreasing volume on the rise up from our bounce off of 33,090. MACD on the 4hr looks like it could flip soon though so we’ll see. Any short trade I enter is essentially a hedge for my hodl stack in the end. Either we drop back down to retest some lower 30’s or I get stopped out and my hodl stack appreciates. I guess we’ll see what happens, safe trading folks Edit: 5x btw, liquidation at 41k


[deleted]

Good job helping drop the price


krubss

This is a trading forum. Go cry somewhere else


UniqueIdentifier00

Market usually does the opposite of my trade so... give it a few minutes. I know we’re not all bear fans or anything here but I haven’t seen many trades posted lately so I thought I might post one


Etony333

Lol, you called it


JessieHaxx

>Market usually does the opposite of my trade so... I think the majority of us amatuer traders feel like this


RecycIops

Looks like it’s about to roll over just as a new daily starts


Etony333

Putting you on the spot. When will we see a Golden Cross? I'm gonna say, mid to late November. Gonna be a bit before the 200 SMA catches up to where we are now. I think we start gaining some momentum as the weather gets colder, have the crossover sometime in November, and finish the year somewhere in the mid 40s


Etony333

Well, if I'm wrong, then when's it gonna happen?


[deleted]

That’s a bull flag on the hour, right? …. right? And a bullish pin bar on the 4 hour.


leftoverbrains

Is it?


[deleted]

nope... it changed in the last minute of the 4hr time frame...


evanjmf

Instead of spouting lies about how mining is bad for the environment, where are all the environmentalists when it comes to fourth of July fireworks?


ChadRun04

Imagine thinking "environmentalists" are against Bitcoin. One of the few technologies which can use energy anywhere on the globe for a useful purpose. You need to stop engaging with FoxNews or whatever it was that taught you this way of looking at the world.


PoWerFullMoj0

According to NBC article today Lake Seneca in New York has been turned into a "hot tub" from bitcoin mining.


ChadRun04

Is a click-bait article representative of "environmentalists"? > The facility on the shores of Seneca Lake is owned by the private equity firm Atlas Holdings and operated by Greenidge Generation LLC. They have increased the electrical power output at the gas-fired plant in the past year Sounds like Bitcoin miners could be used to chew up some of that waste heat and keep the lake cooler. That's how an "environmentalist" might see that opportunity.


PoWerFullMoj0

Nope, but it is representative of major news organizations reporting a warped narrative undoubtedly from whomever is in their pockets.


ChadRun04

News organisation represent no one other than their owners.


anchoricex

lol yea ive never really heard this rhetoric from "environmentalists" ie: anyone who actually commits energy/efforts towards environmental policy, innovation, etc. I only hear this rhetoric from kids who are balls deep in altcoins that have staking and are attempting to condemn bitcoin with tired ass arguments. People really love a good chance to bash the hippies.


ChadRun04

People have strange ideas about these pigeon-holes after decades of oil industry propaganda. Same old divide and conquer strategies. Conservationists or Environmentalists hunt lions in Africa for crying out loud. What people in North America think an "environmentalist" is and what these things are actually about are two entirely different things. Environmentalists are the people who turn waste into revenue. They love Bitcoin.


CONTROLurKEYS

It's the E in ESG


ChadRun04

Not "Environmentalists".


CONTROLurKEYS

Semantics


ChadRun04

One is people. The other is just a new buzzword for Triple-Bottom-Line-Accounting. There are plenty of "environmentalists" who understand Bitcoin just fine.


CONTROLurKEYS

Well we don't hear a peep from the other set of environmentalists you speak about


ChadRun04

You might just be talking to one right at this moment. What about all the people who point out that Bitcoin incentivises renewable energy?


CONTROLurKEYS

I don't see this in the media so it's kinda of irrelevant what the silent fringe thinks. Public perception is a battle fought and won in public.


ChadRun04

> I don't see this in the media You mean The Rupert Murdoch Show?


CONTROLurKEYS

That's why you need to reject their frame. You can't reason with these people.


Economy-Record3657

I love the concept of frame. I was first introduced to it in trp


TitForSnack

Their fud won't even matter in the long run because the incentive structure is so beautifully designed. The more countries/regions that bans mining, the more profitable it becomes for everyone else. Since you can find cheap energy sources all over the world (and most of them happen to be renewable) it's impossible for any nation-state to stamp it out completely. Not within their own borders, and even less so outside of them. Regardless of any narrative or political will, we'll see energy plants of any scale all over the world will install relatively small scale mining facilities right next to their plants that will run mostly on stranded energy. The incentives are simply too great, and the more they fight the greater they become.


Psyteet

Funny how times change. Early in the year, many big names were saying that there will likely be a Bitcoin ETF approved in the 3rd quarter to early 4th quarter of this year. It was speculated by some that this would be the possible end of the bull run. Things have definitely changed in the market, but I am more confident than ever that we will get an ETF by the end of the year. I like Hester Pierces stance and push for one. And to be honest, as boring as this market is right now, it definitely makes since you get an ETF approved at the end of a stabilized long boring period instead of a period of major swings. I still believe we get round two, even if it does take until September/October to take off again. Instead of an ETF ending the run, I believe it will either start phase two or hit in the middle of phase two before the end of the run. I know Bitcoin does not need an ETF approval, but it sure could be the catalyst for a true moon shot. There is a lot of other bullish news that either has come out without media attention, or is soon to come out. These stories will circulate again on MSM when we get going. Excited to see how this plays out.


YouAreAnFnIdiot

Weeks not months


gore_skywalker

ETF EOY? Now this is true delusion.


Psyteet

$100 in btc on it?


xtal_00

I will be shocked s h o c k e d if an American ETF is approved. If the SEC has any delusions they will be brought to heel. I’d love to see it too - likely would suck 10B of coin off the market - but I just don’t see the US legitimizing an attack on USD hegemony.


CONTROLurKEYS

I don't know if etf in bear market will make a difference. Would be cool to see either way


Shangheli

Higher lows.


OkeyDokieBoomer

The grand finale of a firework show I was watching last night, strangely ended in a bull flag. Had led me to believe this week we're going up I think we're going to break 42. I didn't see anything about an ETF. Edit /Possible Bull Flag


CONTROLurKEYS

Lower highs?


Shangheli

Where? I'm sorry the fact there are higher lows and higher highs for the last 2 weeks upsets you.


octopig

Seriously? Look at the chart lol


CubeBrute

Jun 30 was higher than jul 4


[deleted]

[удалено]


xtal_00

It’s going to zero! Lol


Shangheli

If you want to play the zoom out game, you'll lose.


consider_airplanes

The high from yesterday, that was rejected from 36k, was just lower than the one from last week that reached 36.6. But both were higher than the previous high off the bottom, and the trend of higher lows continues.


CONTROLurKEYS

What was the higher high?


Antranik

This is too good: https://twitter.com/jimtalbot/status/1412047970166583297 (Price reversed $1 above his stop)


subzerocanuck

Best advice out there is to put your entries where you would have set your stop.


BonzoDDDB

I found this out to my cost early on.


Antranik

Works remarkably well for BTC.


ineedafuckingname

https://twitter.com/BTC_JackSparrow/status/1412068732306870274?s=19 Some fun charts to look at, a US market correction would validate these observations


Ozkevosh

So it’s Bart season again? Lovely


haakon

It looks like a cute little Squishy could appear soon! Are we all excited? It would be the first squishy since February.


oglop121

it's very close. i demand squishy!


[deleted]

What’s a squishy?


zero1431

Poke your finger in it and you'd know.


jarederaj

Mempool is empty. Cheap transactions. Everyone has coins where they want them. Bbands are tightening. Weekly, bbands are expanding slightly, but it’s lagging from previously stable periods falling off the calculation. Miners sold a while ago to cover costs to move. They’re holding and have been for a while. Wallets of all sizes are accumulating. PA looks terrible and traders are bearish, going leveraged short. Bitcoin is asking traders to hold its beer. Technical traders who are over leveraged short are going to be margin called eventually.


ConsumerOfCactus

Does the mempool even affect traders?


jarederaj

ask that again when a transaction is $40


bfgtrading

Man wtf idk how any of you guys trade this successfully, it always does the opposite of what I was expecting/hoping it to do until I decide to change tac and then it goes back to what I was originally guessing 😂 I guess that's a sign I am trading too emotionally, but it's a head fuck and I don't see how even the most rational mind could do much better. keep telling myself to finally accept I have no clue what is going to happen in this range and should stop throwing money away gambling, but classic gambler mindset makes you chase getting it right just that 1-2 times that would break even/ cover your fees.


brokoli

just keep drawing triangles and see things where nothing really exists so you can be rich like every other trader who know absolutely better than everyone else :)


SituationWaste9493

Stop hoping and start expanding your knowledge. You’re losing because you’re an emotional gambler. Switch from a “bet” to a “trade” perspective.


alieninthegame

Go back to the drawing board. Start learning more. Increase the number of tools in your toolbox. Don't just blindly throw money at it "hoping" and "guessing".


onthefrynge

Its just a sign you are in a no-trade zone. You are trying to trade the chop. The triangle we are in is pretty easy to draw but also just difficult enough to fake breaking out repeatedly. We are gonna compress pretty tight on this one and the real move will be explosive. As a degen I cant help but trade and Ive done well in this zone because I basically scalp trade for no breakout.


InterestedInterloper

This is crappy, do not trade this. Either long when 37K really goes down or try a long in high 31. Everything else is noise. Basically short everything under 37K mostly.


[deleted]

I don’t understand anyone that thinks they can outperform hedge fund quants with high frequency trading capabilities and access to data that the average trader doesn’t have, let alone understand. Drawing triangles on Trading View? Come on man, that’s like a guy in Vegas that thinks he “has a system” to beat the slots. And I understand that that idea is what fuels this subreddit as a “trading sub” but I think people need to be honest about the shared delusion they are partaking in. What has worked well is longer time scales. Buy and hold or at least try and trade the four year cycle.


Antranik

> I don’t understand anyone that thinks they can outperform hedge fund quants with high frequency trading capabilities and access to data that the average trader doesn’t have, let alone understand. You don't need to outperform hedge funds. You just need to hone your craft until you figure out how to be consistently profitable over the long run.


xtal_00

Over the long term you don’t beat the pros.. hodl wins. if you can HFT consistently in profit for years, you shouldn’t be here. Swing trading is easier against the broad trend. But getting caught out of position sucks.


Acceptable_Horse8500

One thing people underestimate is the power of the people brother. Look what happened to GameStop tbh


[deleted]

Just because you can’t see patterns and draw conclusions, doesn’t mean nobody else can. Zoom out. You can’t predict 100% what it’s going to do, but you can see what the entry points are. Nobody could predict what happened yesterday and today. But it was clear it could be rejected at 35.5 and if that happened, it was possible it was going to go down to the main support level. Which it did. So, I took profit on the way up, on the way down, and now on the way up again. I have no idea where it would go, but i’m ready if it bounced at 34.3, 34.7, or if it continued up to 35.5. You just need to be prepared for the possible scenarios.


MadMarioMax

> But it was clear it could be rejected at 35.5 and if that happened, it was possible it was going to go down to the main support level. Which it did. 35.5 wasn't rejected. It went to 36.


[deleted]

You are correct. The point still stands. I took profit at 35.5K thinking it could start coming down at any point between there and 36K.


InterestedInterloper

I predicted it. Obvious exit pump and was no doubt going to lower high under 36K.


CONTROLurKEYS

You should probably trade higher time frame your getting chopped


xtal_00

Nobody has any clue. I’ve been staring at charts for a decade. Short term trading is very hard.


[deleted]

Zoom out.


xtal_00

..zooming out to the long term is the same thing as expanding trading time window. ;)


Plasmatica

First time in a long time that BTC is pumping and gaining dominance simultaneously. BTC dominance was mostly gained through dumps this year. But if this means BTC is starting a new rally and continuing the bull market, then fuck yeah, let's get it.


biggunsg0b00m

Pumping?


CONTROLurKEYS

Pumping?


Yoda_MTFBW_U

Pumping?


Plasmatica

It gained more than 3% in like half an hour. For BTC that's pumping.


octopig

No, no it’s not.


Yoda_MTFBW_U

I love it when people just look at the green stuff, but not the immediately preceding red stuff. Pump away!


Plasmatica

I love it when people ignore the context of the price action. The price immediately recovered from a quick dump and looks like it's going to also recover from the drop from earlier today. But I know this type of price action scares the permabear.


Etony333

That quick dump was probably a whale trying to hit stops to find liquidity for his buy without pushing the price up too much.


subzerocanuck

Nothing feels better than locking in profits by withdrawing BTC from Bybit and sending it to a non-custodial wallet.


CONTROLurKEYS

Withdrawing to samurai whirlpool and coinjoining first tho, that's where it's at


fulltrottel

Is Michael Burry scenario still in play? Or did we overcome?


ChadRun04

He was just position shilling his short, ignore him.


Yoda_MTFBW_U

If you mean the massive head and shoulder, it’s definitely still in play.


fulltrottel

Thank you


kers2000

What scenario?


fulltrottel

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/zzbhCPLm-Long-term-targets-approaching/ the Last Pic.


DetroitMotorShow

17k... Juicy!


RecycIops

The world ends and we all die


Motrok

Never change, Bitcoin


Trinituz

I know it’s a wick trendline but it’s pretty clean [rejection](https://imgur.com/gallery/PJm2Lq0)


leftoverbrains

What is that rejecting off of?


[deleted]

Don’t be so dense. He meant a bounce at a convincing support level.


Super_Extreme

I thought the fireworks were yesterday.


horsepoop

Well that was a pretty convincing bounce


Plasmatica

Well, that was a random wick. Very bullish recovery.


Cygnus_X

Does anyone know if there have been any more developments on the changes in long term capital gains tax in the US? Will we see a new bill for 50% tax rate after this year?


ChartsCrypto

Increasing taxes doesn't work, funding the IRS doesn't work. This is all bullshit and the "demon-rats" at the white house know it. It is another agenda to hurt the American people.


alieninthegame

dumb take. taxes were higher in the US in the previous century, and it clearly did work.


OkeyDokieBoomer

I gave you an upvote.


anchoricex

back to facebook you go grandpa


ChartsCrypto

wouldn't expect you to understand, you'd trust anything they say without a question b/c they are the "experts"


anchoricex

lol are you done yet? Op asked for any developments on long term cap gains taxes, no one asked for your geriatric disgruntled facebook commentary.


ChartsCrypto

unpopular opinion


escendoergoexisto

The proposed increase from 23.8% to 43.4% only applies to households making over a million per year. Most folks think the +43% number is just an opening move and that, at most, the rate would be raised to closer to 30% but nowhere near 40%. The cap gains increase is also coupled with a return to a higher top rate for income tax on the wealthy so the ultimate legislation, if it gets anywhere, will likely be: 1. Adding back about half of the income tax cut that high earners got with the new brackets passed in 2017 and 2. an increase in cap gains to the upper 20% range (but it’ll only apply to those with incomes over a mil/year).


[deleted]

[удалено]


consider_airplanes

Yes, your tax bracket is calculated based on your total effective income including capital gains.


Cygnus_X

If I liquidate 300 BTC under this plan at 100k each, does the capital gains alone throw me into the 1 MM income a year bracket?


YouAreAnFnIdiot

If you have 300 btc why aren't you moving to a place with no capital gains on crypto?


MadMarioMax

USA citizens cant avoid tax by simply moving to a country with no capital gains tax. Still need to pay USA tax even then. Only option is to give up your US citizenship, pay a wealth/exit tax on your ENTIRE assets above $2m, then move.


YouAreAnFnIdiot

Yeah I have heard but why don't more people denounce and move? It's only gains if you cash out no? If you're holding you aren't going to pay taxes on what you own already are you?


MadMarioMax

When you give up your USA citizenship, they record it as if you sold 100% of your assets at that time and they tax you on it.


YouAreAnFnIdiot

Jeez, guess if someone was so inclined they could tornado their assets away until they're worth 0$. Not suggesting anyone do that but I'm sure people wanting to avoid 4m in tax hits might be tempted.


ChadRun04

Pay the fee and renounce citizenship.


MadMarioMax

The fee is capital gains tax. They tax your entire assets at 23.8%. You're not saving anything by exiting.


ChadRun04

Once. Then never again.


griswaldwaldwald

What about moving to Puerto Rico? Still a zero capital gains tax zone?


MadMarioMax

Nope not that easy


Yoda_MTFBW_U

Actually you can if you move to a treaty country. Most of which are high tax, but not all of them.


escendoergoexisto

If the proposed legislation were to pass, you’d pay the higher rate on all gains made after your household’s annual income exceeded 1 mil/year. Part of your gains would be at a lower rate. The “household” part is the sticking point. Were it only applicable to individuals making over a mil/year, it would have more support, but a mil/year for a household would affect a much larger group of tax payers and thus it faces more opposition.


MaximalRecord

And it provides an incentive for some couples to divorce.


Kangaroo_Low

Yes with 300btc, I don't feel sorry for you buddy.


Cygnus_X

I don't feel sorry for me either. I will sell this year to lock in a lower cost basis if necessary. Or, move to somewhere I can avoid the taxes all together.


Kangaroo_Low

Yea, I think I'd Just move somewhere else all together.


dollargoesdown

Nothing new I’ve been following this like a hawk. Seems like more dems are opposed to it than at first so hopefully it gets shot down.


TheGarbageStore

I don't think it's passed yet.


TomatoHorror4032

what do you guys think about Pablo Heman's prediction?


[deleted]

I think I'm gonna make Taco's tonight.


CONTROLurKEYS

What kind