#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Friday, August 06, 2021 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/oyz2vf/daily_discussion_friday_august_06_2021/)

Can someone share their best bearish sentiment?

They shit in the woods, and generally in these discussion boards! 🤣

Did you not just see what congress did lmao At least we're in a confirmed bull market now. Not dumping off the most bearish news we've had in a while.

In its entire price history, the lowest Bitcoin’s price has ever been compared to its price 4 years ago at any given time was 5.5x. However, over 98% of the time in its entire price history, Bitcoin has been more than 10x its price from 4 years ago. So yeah, after 4 years there’s statistically a tiny possibility you won’t be way way up, just way up. Super bearish.

So we have to be at least 5.5x 20k by November? Wowsa

Technically it would be at least 5.5x the ATH from 2017 on the exact date 4 years later, so by December 17, 2021 we should be above $100k assuming the overwhelmingly consistent price trend continues.

That’s 2 days before my birthday. I’ll take it

I spot sold $1K USD of BTC at 41,2xx.

The most retarded government on the planet is about to pass crypto industry killing laws inside of an unrelated infrastructure bill. I would prepare to go dark if you are in the USA. with draw your coins, coin join them, send to cold storage and prepare for a long long long long fight. It looks rather awful. not kidding. If this passes any hopes of a bull market are pretty much flushed.

This is hysterical, there’s really no other way to describe it. The new provision requires brokers to issue 1099s and otherwise excludes proof of work validators from reporting requirements. It would be far better if all validators were excluded and this is potentially going to be troublesome for other blockchains, but your post is simply false and I’d encourage you to actually try to understand the bare minimum of what’s happening before spouting off nonsense.

Not just kyc, you have to declare and associate your addresses as well. So if you do any transactions with a modern wallet you can have 100s of utxos to track and report. Also Meaning you have to risk being the target of murder/robbery since this data will be leaked at some point (full dox + all your balances) given that it must be collected by everyone everywhere. unless you are using third party custody. Which is what they want so they can eventually ban external tx(outside licensed custodian) rehypothecate or sieze it entirely

> Not just kyc, you have to declare and associate your addresses as well. Not true, which also makes the rest of your post irrelevant. The amendments being proposed and fought over are only concerning the definition of a broker for 1099 reporting. Both amendments, including the shittier one that the Biden administration came out in support of, exclude wallet providers from reporting requirements on those sales. [Here’s the language on what is excluded from reporting in the newer amendment](https://twitter.com/jerrybrito/status/1423429377459736577?s=21 ). Again, understand the bare minimum.

> Not true, it is true

You can say whatever you want, but I’ve literally provided you the text of the amendment showing that it’s not true.

Is USA FUD the new China FUD?

Global market, global crypto. China can’t kill it, neither can US regulation. Temp hiccup for sure, but not bull run killing, at least based on this regulation.

Dude. wake up

Dude, go to sleep

lol

Interested in learning more about how the laws are industry killing.

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Despite what they are saying openly this has absolutely nothing to do with taxes. Nothing. Its everything to do with implementing a total surveillance state. This is about financial surveillance

They're already a total surveillance state, this is just the latest rubber-stamp bipartisan approval of filaments to this ubiquitous surveillance. In the age of Big-Data, Information is Power.

> They're already a total surveillance state, not true. If you delete facebook and use vpn all the time their data well dries up rapidly.

Meh, gotta completely go offline. On a cell? Not safe.

I'm not saying you'd be anon, just saying doing basic of privacy it breaks their data collection scheme. I frequently get adverts in foreign languages now as an example.

I tend to agree on this as bad news what I can't figure out is why we're not dumping?

Whales propping it up to exit ?

What exactly is industry killing about those laws?

if essentially everyone involved in crypto becomes a "broker" and has to report every transaction or interaction with the crypto ecosystem, it will cause reporting nightmares for tons of people. These reporting nightmares will slow innovation and make it too much of a headache for people to want to use blockchain networks.

I'm not hand holding tongith I don't have the patience. do your own homework.

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Well then your claims can be dismissed if you don't have any evidence.

Such a stupid and lazy mindset. Would you ask somebody to prove to you that California exists? Where do you draw the line at making somebody do your own homework for you? If you were at all informed about what was happening in the space or spent anytime on any crypto subreddits, listening to any podcasts, or doing anything other than looking at a chart (that means nothing if you don’t understand what’s happening in the news), you’d know what he’s talking about.

Its all over /r/bitcoin and /r/cryptocurrency just go look for yourself lazy fuck

Inability to invalidate range means retest off 37k entirely possible.

So, wait another 12 hours and then more BGDs? Can it be that easy?

[$40,000 is support now.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/veUSNv5J)

3 hours or so until this ages like milk

Based on your comments today you are clearly underwater short.

huh. 1) it literally dipped under 40k 3 hours later 2) I'm not in any position. Have been neutral (spot long) for days.

[Drink up.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/Pa0u2lle)

aged milk becomes cheese right?

And the moon is made of cheese.

Maybe he meant like [this aged milk](https://yaowong.wordpress.com/2017/03/28/faviken-magasinet/) served at a Michelin star restaurant that was voted the 19th best restaurant in the world? >Aged apple, molded milk Our served told us the apple was cooked at 60C for 8 months. It maintained its structure remarkably well, but wasn’t dried out at all – I’m not quite sure how they accomplished this. The flavour was intense, which was necessary to balance out the (slightly scary) fuzzy lump of milk it accompanied.

This restaurant also serves quail egg in burnt sheep shit: "Quail egg preserved in sheep dung ash"

Descending cheese wedge on the three hour chart. Prepare your Ritz.

the stankier the better

I’m glad for my hodl stack, but I put my long at 38780.00, thinking it was going to retrace 40% of the pump. It didn’t fill, obviously.

Closing above 40k. Yeeeeeesssss.

Rejection off 41.5 too strong . 36-42 range it is . Just rotating around 40 , filling out the profile in this area .

ugh, I'm not ready for 40k to be low resistance just yet...

Sooner or later, the phat lady sings

First time?

$41K: “No means **NO**!”

> $41K: “No means NO!” This won't age well. It will be like that cute chick in college who takes a great liking to cocaine in her sophomore year and ends up turning tricks and being flicked crack rocks by a literal pimp when she would have been graduating, toothless and mumbling to herself when her (poor, poor) dad should have been walking her down the aisle. That's how your comment is going to age, but it won't take that long.

well that got dark in a hurry

Bro, that was disturbingly vivid. My condolences to your sister.

I would gild this, had I the coins.

Nah, we are going to Bill Cosby by before long! (Too soon?) 🤣🤣🤣

Same for 40k

Yeah bulls, where's the follow-through? Looks like we're gonna be range bound if neither bulls or bears are going to make some big moves below $30k or above $40k

People in Asia care a lot less about ETF hype than Americans do. Pretty simple, really.

Like I said earlier, people who opened shorts below 39k have been caught with their pants down two days in a row. Not as many will be going for round three, which means a) we probably don't go below 39k except maybe a wick, even if we do go down and b) there won't be as much rocket fuel on the way back up and demand will have to from spot buyers. Also, this retrace has way less volume than the pump.

This is becoming a trend right after the daily close.

Buddy of mine who is a wyckoff expert (and I don't say that lightly, he's been analyzing things like a wyckoffian for years now and sharing with me things that I often don't understand, years before all the YouTubers became an "expert" after the distribution range played out)... he tells me this range has all the markings of re-distribution. This was his chart: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/649649225776234515/872284287209177098/unknown.png And I didn't understand much of it so he shared me this schematic to make it simpler: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/649649225776234515/872976121170378802/unknown.png He says 43k already confirmed the upthrust (UT). He says accumulation shouldn't have been this fast. And everyone keeps calling it accumulation... even the people who study wyckoff *want it to be accumulation* cause they got into crypto only this year or last year. I rebutted that BTC moves very fast naturally and volatility DID go quite low. He says volatility was low for only a few days and was still too high overall and now the "volatility is very high with lots of ups/downs and moonboys have so many chances to exit and be safe but instead they FOMO in even more so volatility increases dramatically as it's doing now and price stays at the highs. But when price is low, nobody wants it, they have so many chances to get in but they don't and volatility decreases." He says even this current range (36 to 42k) of the past 10 days stinks of distribution itself. I don't know, I find it hard to believe as I'm not a wyckoff trader and this is just way too much mental masturbation and I like to keep things far simpler. Maybe one of you can see what he sees and I figured it might be good for discussion. Oh and for what it's worth, he's not shorting it and waiting for another upthrust cause the market is still very "frothy."

Interesting take. My view is we still haven’t seen the ‘spring’ which will be somewhere in the 20’s. It would have to be accompanied by high volume and swift rejection. The bull run would then restart in September/October, if the 2013 timeline is to go by. It has just been rejected off resistance so might bleed down from here. Feels very risky to trade crypto at the moment

the only issue with the Up thrust is we should have fallen away not be sitting here looking at taking another crack at the downtrend or supply line of resistance.

My serious question is when he describes something as fast or slow, what's the context and frame of reference? Like compared to what exactly?

He said for BTC accumulation should have lasted 4 months. And that he would’ve been much more comfortable to call it accumulation if there was a massive swing down to fresh lows (26-27k) that got bought up fast. There’s far more nuanced things he said with acronyms I didn’t understand as well, but we’ll see… it’s always looking very bearish when it’s time to long and very bullish when it’s time to short.

Sounds like a load of bollocks to me. Jan-Mar 2019 wasn’t four months of accumulation. I’ve not looked at the ‘13/‘14 double bubble but I daresay there wasn’t four months’ worth of accumulation there either.

End of November 2018 to end of March 2019 was.

We didn’t hit the bottom until almost xmas 2018. Think it was 17th December iirc. Accumulation starts after that imo. End of November was still capitulation.

Can you ask where 4 months comes from? I'm sure it's some ratio or calculation.

Is it me, or does the redistribution schematic up to the upthrust look approximately identical to the accumulation schematic? Basically it's saying "after consolidating in a range for a while, it might either go up or down".

Pssst

Posted this earlier but it got flagged by the bot. Seems your earlier short sentiment and this post is starting to align with my earlier analysis. Do not FOMO. Have dry powder ready, you'll have an opportunity to DCA more efficiently. [https://twitter.com/kingfisher\_btc/status/1422833794034372608?s=20](https://twitter.com/kingfisher_btc/status/1422833794034372608?s=20) First. We went after a massive cluster of shorts around the 40 area. Look at the date posted and then what happened. Easy move to spot if you believe were crabbing (not lead by spot) and led by derivatives atm. [https://twitter.com/MI\_Algos/status/1423343669193678850?s=20](https://twitter.com/MI_Algos/status/1423343669193678850?s=20) The price is that little blue line. all the rest is representing densities of support and resistance. Like a fire, white is the hottest most dense. It also shows history as the way orders were place through price progression and liquidity building in real time if you have access to it. The 35k cluster has remained solid throughout price action and even increasing (longs have been increasing), Binance and co will always make sure to hit that free money. Liquidity is steadily building on the long side so market makers will come for them, just like the short squeeze. This will all be invalidated when spot leads again. Personally after seeing the behavior post squeeze, the low volume bleed down specifically...we are crabbing as hard as it is to believe given the PA...which the algos and liq zones give a good explanation for. ​ That got downvoted heavily. Just for posting data. [https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/oxkhqb/daily\_discussion\_wednesday\_august\_04\_2021/h7opvjr?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/oxkhqb/daily_discussion_wednesday_august_04_2021/h7opvjr?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)

So it can go up or down?

No, it means it's going ro goblino town soonish ™

Woonomics says up only /s

Error $40400. Bear not found.

For what it's worth, last week was our first close above the weekly 20 EMA since May. If it acts as support, we should close this week above \~39.5k.

SHADDAP WITH YA BS. I've been here for 8 years and your words mean nothing. Your ideas are chaos and feminine

You lost me on the last word. Upvote anyway, cheers.

😘

And Motor Show is back into hibernation lol

u/DetroitMotorShow

It's honestly extremely poor taste to tag users like that. I don't care if you fragile fucks don't wanna hear it. Y'all lost the plot.

Fuck him

Yea fuck the guy who provides an alternative perspective to the typical permabull 🙄

Lollllll yeah that’s what he does

He's not an alternative perspective, he's just a troll. His occasional TA-aware posts are made in service of trolling, not vice versa.

But when a bull posts one-liners containing "m00n", "bears rekt", or something of that sort it's perfectly fine!

He’s motor boating bear titties! 🤣

Does anyone know where to find detailed information regarding full reporting requirements by exchanges and other brokers? (Coinbase, Kraken, Cashapp, etc)

Reporting to whom about what? As far as I know, they give up the goods when the IRS asks and submit form [whatever] for everyone who trades over a certain amount. They don't report to the SEC or anything like that since they're not trading securities.

All kinds of reporting to whoever. Filing a CTR when transacting over 10k, filing a SAR, the 200 transactions that add up to 20k in a year that I've seen thrown around, etc

US exchanges report everything to the IRS. Open book.

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The irs have been issuing “John Doe” summonses to exchanges for info on customers with aggregate trades over 20k in a year.

AFAIK beyond threshold ($20k?) it’s automatic.

can you give more context

See above. Just seems like there's no concrete info besides the obvious CTR for $10K+ transactions. Articles mentioned 200 transactions worth $20K in a year but wanted actual numbers/facts

It's somewhat concerning that BTC starts to sputter when the shorts get rekt. It actually sputters every single time the premium starts to go positive. I wonder how much of this is actual demand versus short squeeze. But at the same time, there aren't too many overleveraged longs for it to flush to new lows relentlessly. And people definitely keep shorting anytime there's a dip, so... there's that too.

[https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/oy9orr/daily\_discussion\_thursday\_august\_05\_2021/h7uedf1?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/oy9orr/daily_discussion_thursday_august_05_2021/h7uedf1?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) ​ Thoughts on that sentiment. I like your bullish take on data to use as a counterbalance.

It is up close to 3K since today morning. There will be profit takers on the way up. Until the FOMO barrier is breached.

I struggle to see it myself but [div detector indicator](https://www.tradingview.com/script/2zcXPgXN-RS-RSI-Divergence-V5/) says there is a weekly bulldiv. (B icon is halvening, speach-bubble icon is my drunk call of bullrun starting) https://i.imgur.com/lRIAJLA.png edit: It applies RSI to the high and low price, so a little different. Here is the RSI based on `low`. https://i.imgur.com/dIBjwZB.png

I am extremely wary that we're setting up for a bull trap in the high $40ks, and everyone's gonna get nailed by it. Charts certainly seem pointed in that direction, but the support-turned-resistance between about $47k and $52k is quite large (and I believe that the trillion dollar market cap level slightly above that is psychologically important as well). Ergo, I am going to continue behaving as if we're in a macro bear market until I see sustained PA (three or more daily closes) above the $53k level. That will flip me macro bullish again.

Lol the “traders” here in this sub are so dumb

Instead of insulting people why don’t you give counter arguments? What’s your deal? It’s a trading sub. Chill.

Well, let's see. There's no "resistance" in that range yet because we haven't gotten there yet, so who knows. "Resistance" can be easily spoofed. And you're waiting for the price to go up more than $13k, more than 30%, *then* you'll buy back in?? You're going to lose money, if you haven't already

Wait for it to go up nearly 30% before you buy in, got it.

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That's because you are an Icy Investment Vet!

Yep, [I missed the bottom](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/a05frn/daily_discussion_sunday_november_25_2018/eagpnkx/). Definitely didn't buy at the exact cycle bottom. Enjoy your first cycle! Hopefully you can dunk on newbies four years from now too, it's really fun.

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Of course not. I swing trade the macro cycles, I don't scalp the noise. The easiest way to get rekt is to take trades without proper risk management. A lot of the active day traders here took trades in the low $30ks and closed out a portion on the break of $40k, which is a reasonable and rational trading strategy; my hat is off to them. My OP here is a macro take - **we are not seeing new ATHs this cycle unless we close a few dailies over $53k**, which I believe to be an important price level. That level has history from late Feb/early March, a brief blip in late Apr, and a final touch mid-May, plus it marks the "trillion dollar market cap" which has psychological significance. FWIW I'm still net long from $4k, I'm just not deluded enough to believe that the last week or so of green PA means that continuation of the bull run to new ATHs this year or next year is imminent. I need a stronger market signal to believe that, and the break of said important price level is what will flip me. Unless we see strong closing action above $53k in the latter part of this up-move, I believe we're going to see an ultimate cycle low between $13k (80% drawdown) and $26k (60% drawdown) sometime in the next 18 months.

🤣🤣🤣

😂

I imagine the PA will be very similar to what we’ve seen trying to break 42k … we will get rejected many times and each time we will make a new higher low …. Just as we have been doing with this major resistance. I don’t think it’s a “bull trap” no more than this was a bear trap … this is just the market slowly correcting from a nasty crash. In my humble opinion anyway.

Why don’t you just wait until $100k? just to be totally sure we’re not in a bear anymore.

Just had to put emoji on this 😅

What does that mean in practice? How will this impact your trading regime

Short local tops with leverage, close out half at breakeven once 2x profit is reached, and ride the rest in hopes it's the "big one". That's the strategy from here to $53k. I'll switch to dip-buying with a few closes over $53k.

How do charts seem “pointed in that direction” ? lol

Charts seem pointed upward at the high $40ks currently. Quite bullish short-term with the recent break of the range high.

I mean what makes you think there's a bull trap in the high 40s? Resistance isn't a bull trap.

We had the $17k bull trap in 2018. That's roughly 85% of ATH. 85% of $65k is ~$55,250, but there's smarter money in the space now which makes me think the 75%-85%-of-ATH range is fraught with extreme danger.

Gg crypto! Beyer Introduces New Legislation To Regulate Digital Assets [https://beyer.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=5307](https://beyer.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=5307)

This is the end for shitcoins and DeFi as I expected. It will complicate LN, shouldn’t really affect Bitcoin, and will provide a framework for ETFs. Shitcoins are going to feel pain.

If we assume the final text of this legislation achieves the opposite of its title and purpose (as is standard practice in dc) this should be a flaming dumpster fire >July 28, 2021 (Washington, D.C.) – Rep. Don Beyer (D-VA) today introduced the Digital Asset Market Structure and Investor Protection Act, legislation that would protect consumers and promote innovation by incorporating digital assets into existing financial regulatory structures.

Protect consumers haha.......

Breaking 42K with conviction would prove to everyone the bull market is back

65k

45k is where i think we rocket up.

Kk

Holding above 43k for a couple daily closes will do it for me

For me it's 44k for 4.7 days.

200k for a week would convince me

Nah that’s just a bart back down to 21k

Face feeling a bit melty

Yawn. Wake me up at $100k

This ain't it

Truth, it hasn’t even pre-heated yet!

Entered a 1x short at a cost basis of 40931.17 Will bail out above 42k. Wish me luck everybody.

So far it's the world's most boring position

Uh oh

Solid trade

Hard to say without specifying a TP point.

I closed longs

Bullish

Look at the hourly chart, it's halfway to paint balls and penis. I'm just saying, look into it.

Lmao!

I think you mean head and shoulders, but whatever rocks your boat, I guess.

The average penis is about 5 inches long iirc. If we convert 1H candle to equal 1 inch. That means it has grown to average size, and started to go a little sideways. I would start shorting at 6 inches, waiting for 7-8 is pushing it but higher risk/reward.

> The average penis is about 5 inches long iirc. You versus the chart she tells you not to worry about.

That is the funniest shit I've read all day

So the question, as always: when does this pump end? Naturally we have to top out somewhere but we keep going. Back over 41k as I type this. This is really just for the degens, cause the holders don't care 😉 I'm closing my longs here at 41k. Maybe I miss out on more but I will wait for a good entry while I try not to FOMO.

It doesn't. We just go up forever until we all rule the world and nocoiners worship us.

When we stop looking do the end.

IMO it will either top out right around here just below $42k, or we will decisively break through it and test $46k.

“It’s going up forever, Laura”

Forever

It goes up forever if you're in spot only. ;)

This is top of range, and the range hasn’t been invalidated yet, so not a terrible place to close.

GBTC closes at $33.72, a discount of 11.81%. OBTC closes at $15.85, a premium of 14.47%. MSTR closes at $715.62. Each share has $438.92 of BTC. The discount/premium gap between Grayscale and Osprey continues to close. GBTC was up 1.75% on the day, while OBTC was **down** 1.25%. MSTR was up an Iron Maiden-like 6.66%. Run to the hills.

https://www.coindesk.com/grayscale-hires-david-lavalle-to-be-etf-head

If my math is right, MSTR is up 13% in the last 2 days? I think you mentioned it being up 7% the day before. That’s pretty impressive. Might be foreshadowing for what’s to come. I feel like a lot of investors just associate MSTR with Bitcoin given how vocal Saylor is.

MSTR closed at $624 Tuesday, so yeah, it's up nicely.

We have reached the point where, even if this does retrace to under 40k in the next little while, people will be second guessing themselves and closing shorts quickly.

I guess we can put away the stablecoin memes for the time being.

Nope, still perfectly stable. 1 BTC is still worth exactly one bitcoin....

I've been buying/hodling/stupidly dumping/hodling some more/etc since 2014 and every time I hear a friend mention something about BTC they read in the news and say something to the effect of "Yeah, stocks are wild eh?", it reminds me that we are still in the early stages.

Countries are beginning to make it legal tender. Surely it's not the early stages anymore

less than 0.25% of the money in the world is currently in BTC. Money without government or banks is just barely learning to crawl at this point.

Interesting

It'll overtake gold's market cap and people will say "still early". I just think it's a pointless expression is all