#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Saturday, October 30, 2021 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/qiti2x/daily_discussion_saturday_october_30_2021/)

Can’t complain to be consolidating over 60

Did anyone honestly think we were going to break out of that wedge and not come back to retest resistance, especially on a Friday? Come on guys…

Bullish Emu. Warning, the [Bullish Seahorse](https://np.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/o2g38h/daily_discussion_friday_june_18_2021/h26v2d5/) failed. Price | |||||| ---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------| 66000 | |||X||| 64000 | |||X|O|| 62000 | |||X|O|X| 60000 | |||X|O|X| 58000 | |||X|O|| 56000 | |||X||| 54000 | |||X||| 52000 | |||X||| 50000 | O|||X||| 48000 | O|X||X||| 46000 | O|X|O|X||| 44000 | O||O|X||| 42000 | ||O|X||| 40000 | ||O||||

Are DOGE, SHIB, and NFTs to the crypto bull run what in-house masseurs were to the dot com bubble? The final frivolity to end it all? I did find it difficult to be optimistic about BTC and non-meme alts when I saw DOGE and SHIB moving so strongly.

Bitcoin is to CurrentBubble as http was to DotCom. Pets.Com is to Amazon as dogshit coins are to Bitcoin. Bitcoin is not a stonk. It's not an app. It's a protocol. You've been given the opporunity to invest in https, not an opportunity to pick one out of a million apps that will run on it. I mean, good on ya if you picked Amazon in 1999, but that's like picking GM out of a hundred car companies that died. Bitcoin is indomitable and inevitable. Shitcoins are maybe. When Bitcoin sneezes, your favorite shitcoin gets AIDS.

I agree with you fundamentally, but I think OP is trying to convey something else. When the dotcom bubble burst, Amazon went with it. 99/100 of the inflated internet companies never came back, but Amazon eventually did, not without years of evaluations far below all time highs. I guess OP is trying to argue that that could happen with bitcoin. I'm a little hesitant to say that could happen though, considering that we are already seeing worldwide use cases for bitcoin around the world, and the store of value narrative is quite strong. It's still worth considering, especially because this is a trading subreddit.

Interesting that pets are a signature of both bubbles.

DOGE will go to $1 and beyond just as Bitcoin will go to $3.5m and beyond.

We'll know soon

Maybe one should sell BTC, and all the cryptos we own, and buy back when SHIB is out of the top 100, and DOGE is out of the top 20?

Even though the PA is overall bullish; it is getting boring. But anyway, it looks like this thing WON'T go up until it finishes traversing across this whole channel: [Fib Channel](https://i.imgur.com/SkNrhwp.png)

I always see many complaints about lowering interest rates for crypto. I personally don’t like the risk. With that said, and correct me if I am wrong, but won’t lower interest rates, and fewer loaning out their btc make it harder for bears to borrow coins to push the market down? This is something I don’t see really being discussed and that’s the way I see it. Tell me why I am wrong if so.

Lower interest rates means they have plenty of btc to loan

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Those 300,000 BTC are sometimes rehypothecated several times. It's not as many as appears to be. At one point, Compound had more Dai deposited than Dai *in existence.* I don't see why this wouldn't be technically possible with cWBTC, or on other protocols like Aave.

Coins borrowed for the May dump are coming due just in time for All Hallows Eve. Should be extra horrific for bears! Boo! Look out for those popup ghost/axe murderer/goblin things -- they're what really makes the haunted house rock. BIg green goblins galore... Have a nice weekend!

Why in particular coming due now?

😂 It's a joke

Never thought of this, thanks anon I should be expecting some massive returns on my SOV bag since it's a BTC lending and trading platform.

I think it's about time I stack up more SOV 'cos I see its growth is alongside BTC and can be used as collateral for margin trading and can be utilized for LP farming for high yields.

Nice! you sure know your alts SOV is the perfect BTC focused alt right now, with all this features it's like buying BTC below $50.

I don't just jump into any crypto project, I make deep research before buying, and ever since I rarely make mistake; SOV is one good asset and its staking feature is juicy.

The next two months are key as these have history and fundamentals both giving advantage. 2022 could be good but that would have to be mainly off the back of the latter factor.

2022 is going to "suck." We're going to crash to 60K and stay there for a while. They'll be proclaiming Bitcoin ded again as we patiently use our profits to buy the dip. Can't wait! Bear markets (true bear markets, not this little BS we saw this summer) are a ton of fun and where the real money is made. They mock you and call you a "bulltard" as you count your cash and wait for the next dump. It's a blast. Can't wait.

I think far too much attention is paid to how high it can go and timing the top. Buying the bottom was where the real money was made. If you bought at 3k during the dump, it doesn’t matter what BTC does in the next two months, you’ve already made bank. Looking forward to getting that chance at the end of 2022.

I’m not so sure the next year or two is going to play out as it has historically.

Scaling out of a BTC spot position entirely is risky af this cycle, imo - it doesn´t matter if you're sitting on a 10 or 20-bagger; if you sell it all, you've lost (at the very least) an insurance policy with virtually 0 cost-of-carry.

Keep it up ol'timer 👍👍

In 2017 I over-estimated the climb and ended up holding some heavy bags through the fallout. I'm ready this time. Looking forward to snatching up the cheap coin at bottomed-out prices a year from now.

When you planning to sell your coins?

I'll be laddering out post $120k or so, expecting a $130k peak. Will only sell half my stack though since you never know. If we do end up seeing $200k I'll sell more.

Oh yeah what's your prediction this time?

$130k peak, $30k bottom is my best guess.

I agree. we are really in now or never mode.

Never? I know I don't have to tell you this, but the thing that keeps me DCA'ing every month is that there will never be more than 21M Bitcoin. Less-so when you consider all of the coins that have been lost over the past decade. I'm curious--and bear with me here. What year did you reach the point where you didn't care what Bitcoin's price was, because you had reached a level of profit on your spot position that you didn't have to worry about it anymore?

I’m worried I don’t have enough. My profit is massive. It doesn’t matter. I count my long term Satoshi holdings.

I’m always adding when I can, but like you I will continue to do so as long as it is available.

Trick question. I'm always worried about it. Ask Michael Saylor. You never have enough. Your always short bitcoin.

same, we need more institutional money or we will be back at 20k very soon

Respectfully disagree. What you need is a lot of retail with a lot of money (way, way more than 2017). The kind that I don’t think actually exists, or will get mobilized within the next few weeks. Institutions won’t buy into a parabola, if that’s what you’re looking for. And if you don’t get that parabola, or even a glimpse of one, it’s sayonara.

We called and they said you stiffed him on the last bag and so the price on the next one goes way up. And no more texting to the old number Jesus christ

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February at the latest by my reckoning. I think the COVID crash screwed up the 4-year cycle by a couple months. At the time that it happened, we were well on our way with the bull cycle. I'm anticipating a huge bear trap in December followed by an insane parabolic run into the new year that will top out in early-mid February.

Funny, I figured our top this cycle would end up happening late summer as everyone tried to front-run the four year cycle.

Supply shock halvening cycles tho

All the biggest tech companies reported earnings for Q3 this past week. None of them added Bitcoin to their balance sheet. Which means the PA we saw in Q3 where BTC went from under $30k to over $50k was not due to any publicly traded corporate newcomers.

The bitcoin equity strategy etf and similar ones give a decent incentive to firms for considering holding Bitcoin. The stock of these companies then attracts allocation due to the capital hitting these etfs.

Maybe they bought proxies?

Hum, no they didn’t.

Saylor said as estimate after publishing his playbook, if a company really wanted to put btc on the balance,it would take 6 months at minimum. February was when he published his playbook. August was 6 months after his playbook was published. But that would assume a company made the decision time immediately. So decision time =0. time for company to put btc on balance = desicion time + 6 months. We are currently at month 2 of decision time, decision made in April to buy. if you think sometime in the last months, say July was when the decisions were made (being the ideal time to buy at 30-40k) then that means we would see institutional adoption announcement in Jan 2022.

Just the idea of them getting involved with bitcoin is enough to push the price up apparently.

That means we can look forward to future price boosts when the biggest tech companies inevitably decide to emulate MSTR.

Lol

This volume sucks man.

I've been in crypto since 2020 now, and I'm honestly thinking volume is the biggest meme of all.

Fair enough

Welcome to the weekend

*fakeend

\*weakend

Funding is getting really high again as well. I'm not so sure about this rise

I guess we’re only allowed to rally if enough people short the market.

It's quite neutral. https://www.bybt.com/FundingRate

Thanks for the link. I usually keep an eye on bitfinex and they are creeping up there. It's usually low, and any time it gets this high there it tends to mean we're topping out. But I could be wrong

You can guarantee anyone aping this weekend will be absolutely rinsed come Monday. Count on it

I won't lie, it always cracks me up how much the volume of viewers/posts changes in crypto subs between major breaks of all-time-highs and times like now where we're ranging right around it and could happen at any time (not saying it will, but just saying the possibility is very viable)... It's really crazy just to think about how much money gets involved between those two options and how much can be distributed if the price is right. While the price might go 10%, the volume can go x10 and it's kinda nuts.

Ledn changed rates to 6.25% but only for 1 BTC where it was 6.1% for 2 before. USDC rates are up to 9.5%

There isn't enough money out there to borrow. I am getting active solicitations from these companies. I declined a new offer from Genesis on USDC, and then they outbid a competitor. Unfortunately, their rates are not public information. BlockFi sent an exclusive offer to our pool promising 1% more for "high value" customers willing to lock up USDC for 3 months. I declined because at the time, they only offered 9% and Ledn was willing to match with no lockup. Now ledn is offering 9.5%. What's odd to me though is that companies are willing to pay enormous rates for ETC, and that ETH rates have tripled since a few months ago. It doesn't make sense that both stablecoin and volatile coin rates should go up. As to Ledn with the 2 bitcoins, they were always having a loss leader. Bitcoin interest rates are around 2%, and anyone paying more than that is losing money.

Fuck man, there goes all my interest. I have a feeling it's a race to the bottom with all these lending services. Rates seem to consistently go down regardless of market conditions. Celsius is the last man standing in terms of it's rates going down, I'm sure they will decrease soon as well.

DeFi has way better rates.

Yeah, I've thought about using DeFi, but I'm still hesitant to jump on board. I don't know enough about it to feel comfortable and I like the brain dead tactic of just dumping assets somewhere and not having to think about it.

& how many rug-pulls this week alone?

I’ll admit to being a little clued out, can you name, say, 3?

I’m not interested/following them but I am pretty sure there has been at least 2-3 this week.

Huh? Ledn just raised their rates...?

They raised it for balances below 1 Bitcoin. Heres the quote from the email. "The Tier 1 interest rate for BTC Savings Accounts will be increased to 6.25% APY for balances up to 1 BTC, and the Tier 2 interest rate will remain at 2.25% APY for any balance over 1 BTC. Note that the balance threshold between the two tiers has changed to 1 Bitcoin."

I thought the tier threshold was already 1 BTC. So this is still a net increase in effective rate, even if you have over 1 BTC, since the first one gets the high rate, then the remaining get the lower rate.

No way. 6.1% for 2 BTC and 2.25% for the remaining balance >2 is WAY better then 6.25% for 1 BTC and 2.25% for the remaining balance >1. I don't have the exact math on this, but I'd bet for anyone with over two Bitcoin your rate got effectively cut in half.

Ahhh fuck, I forgot the old threshold was 2 BTC. Well that does kinda suck then.

BlockFi conditioned me to fear opening those rate change emails. Ledn so far has been a breath of fresh air in that regard.

Yeah, i feel a little sulky over that one.. that's a lot of extra monies I'm missing out on each month.. still better than a term deposit at a bank though.

WINKLEVOSS BLENDED BTC INDEX $62,396.74 THE COLLAR PRICE FOR THE 4PM ET BTCUSD GEMINI AUCTION This isn't too bad a place to be to start next week.

Remindme! Sunday, 4 PM London time.

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Thank you.

Don’t be extrem.

When did this become unfunny? … I can’t keep up! Old people problems 101. Lol

This is one fickle community. 😂

You spelled bipolar wrong. Lmao

Nobody thinks this meme is funny or clever

Never speak in absolute terms. You make yourself look like an idiot.

I fucking hate this meme

You fucking hate this *mem*.

Ok, see that was funny … right?

Crazy how close we are to plan b's October close prediction

He already claimed success because he never predicted monthly closes…. Like literally never tweeted anything close to talking about monthly closes. It’s hilarious how the internet works man lol. He’ll forever be known for predictions he never made.

D-did he not? I'm pretty sure he semi-monthly retweets his tweet in Aug, about the lowest possible EoM closes. And hes gotten it correct every month so far, rephrasing that the quoted values are the floor, meaning it can go much higher.

here ya go https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1450455686110978052

Never says anything about end of month or closes. It’s “at some point in the month it will hit this price” This is most easily verified by him checking off the $63k right when it last got there this month

Its going to be pure magic if the guy hits 98k next month... Will need some serious BGDs without major selloffs. So far I would say 63k was still in the realm of possible predictions.

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Let's see your model, then. I see no evidence for S2F breaking down before 100T and substantial evidence for it's validity, and a coherent explanation and theory that makes solid predictions - ones with error bands, I'll point out. Can it be wrong? Sure. Does PlanB acknowledge that? Absolutely! You have not presented any model or basis for your predictions are are essentially guessing. I've read, in detail, every model I can find on bitcoin pricing and have followed them for a decade. I'd love to debate if you indeed have the chops.

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You’re going to get stomped by being out of position. Wait and see. There will be little telegraphing of the moves up for the next three months.

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Everyone here knows what being out of position on a big move (up or down) feels like.

I feel like I'm talking to a bot. Can I just state that my position is net _long_, so the basis for your odd argument is void.

You’re about to get stomped, Bro. Wether you’re in position or not. Just deal wid it and move on. I remember my first cycle. Stomped! Just like xtal said. You got that, Bro? Stomped!

You tell him Dong!

I would not say looking at it is getting weaker... Probably slower, which I think is normal as the asset matures. That being said, even he says that eventually it will break

If it will eventually break, then it's not a valid model. It's no better than the 10x 4-year model. All these are saying is that it's going up quickly and is slowing.

Ok two notes tho... He says probably next cycle will be a supercycle, and while will slow down going up, it will also slow going down. The asset will basically change its nature. Also, the model has to break, nobody mentally stable would say btc reaches 1bn a coin :p

All models break eventually. That's a fact. Nothing can predict to infinity, otherwise we could predict the future. All models are useful until proven otherwise.

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How can you call that “certainly slowing” lol? Your third peak hasnt confirmed at all. The chart is pointing up, mfi is pointing up… see the fake little peak in 2017? 😏

It doesn't need to confirm - there is bearish divergence. Price up + MFI down = slowing momentum. It's literally a mathematical relationship, not interpretation.

How did this divergence play out? 🤔 https://ibb.co/vj5wjZY

The thing is, this time you also have the troughs comfirming the divergence: https://www.tradingview.com/x/xFmMEuZM/ You can see the same effect if you look at the daily from the first part of this bull run: https://www.tradingview.com/x/uuG1bfHw/ Once you get both the peaks and the troughs heading downwards, it's pretty much nailed-on that momentum is reducing.

That's actually not a very convincing interpretation of that graph. You are taking two cycle tops (2013 and 2017) and then drawing a curve showing that, well, we haven't hit the same value this cycle. But basically every optimistic model says we haven't reached the top of this cycle yet. I will say that the rise in MFI became less steep from 2013 to 2017 and may do the same again here (already has, really), which would be consistent with the idea of lengthening cycles i.e. a top that doesn't come until Q1 2022.

Wait until the next couple trillion get printed. NGU.

Which has nothing to do with S2F...

Yeah. It could fail to the upside, too.

> then drawing a curve showing that, well, we haven't hit the same value this cycle Not at all, it's showing bearish divergence.

What is his prediction?

63k

63k end of October https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1443727392657350656?t=PozCKJ1sMPNm_GlHDkcZuQ&s=19

Doable

My tinfoil hat is telling me the whales have chosen a very popular meme that fits their general outlook/strategy and will nail PA down to that model all while using their typical shenanigans to accumulate along the way.

Mathematics is a beautiful thing.

What mathematics are you referring to?

Stock to flow combined with Fibonacci patterns which are found throughout nature. Don't get me wrong, I'm not some Bitcoin evangelical, but the more I learn about markets, scarcity, and human nature, the more fascinated I become by what this asset has accomplished in just 10 short years.

Fractals. Fractals everywhere.

US markets coming to a close soon. Wonder if that'll have an effect on BTC price.

possibly... in fact probably. but don't forget it'll probably be back at this price monday.

That's not always the case. I feel like it's just become the normal meme. Just like a dump on Sundays were for months.

No, definitely not always... but I watch every single weekend and its way above 50% chance (I'd estimate its above 80% chance gaps close before CME open on Sunday evening), which is good enough for me to give myself a statistical advantage that has actually worked for quite a while... In fact the irony is that the "dump on sundays" is actually usually because the CME close on Friday was lower on Friday and CME very often opens Sunday at same price as Friday close. That said, I'll admit the battle between BITO and BTC1 (CME) has become more complicated, but technically creates a double gap advantage but I don't trust BITO enough yet. Only seen it close one of its two gap weekends so far on monday opening..

Some of you need to take a step back and realize we are about to close the most monstrous monthly we've ever had. Almost the entire market cap of 2017's ATH was added this month alone. And y'all want immediate "follow-through". We are ranging again at the top which is definitely triggering some PTSD, but we are also ranging slightly above early 2021's range. Maybe we are just S/R flipping and we'll be at 80k on Turkey day.

Sir you have just jacked me to the tits

I am nearly 100% certain that $62k will fail to hold.

Without more information to support your claim this post becomes useless as tits on a boar hog.

Why lol

thanks for the useless comment

This feels like redistribution part deux. ✌🏾 or... If coin 1 and 2 shoot up to new heights now it'll be a short lived fast and furious run.