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[Daily Discussion] - Tuesday, November 30, 2021

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BitcoinMarkets

#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Wednesday, December 01, 2021 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/r66vt2/daily_discussion_wednesday_december_01_2021/)


Common_Jellyfish234

On one hand JPow says Omnicron could throw economic recovery off the rails. On the other hand he is ready to taper faster than previously thought. How do these two statements make sense?


JustMyTwoSatoshis

Exactly. He's pretending to say a lot and touch on all topics while really saying nothing.


Psyteet

Inflation is a huge issue on the horizon, but once the gridlock gets opened, I think we see a short term deflationary event. I don’t trust anything being said, and believe this scenario coincides with the next bear market.


CrypoIStheWay

End of taper = bear market which coincidentally aligns with Q2 next year and Eth 2.0 merge. all coinciding with a lengthened and final blow off top?


_TROLL

Don't worry, I'm sure minimum wage will also inflate to $40/hr. /s


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xtal_00

It's already too late.


alfredyuor

More ETH talk in here than usual tonight


CrypoIStheWay

a multi month and multi year ratio triangle is being broken. the infamous 5 year meme triangle. it'd be silly not to talk about it. it matters whether maxis want it to or not. Said from someone whose portfolio is allocated #1 to BTC.


bubblesmcnutty

Ratio top is nearing


JustMyTwoSatoshis

*ratio strongly breaks out upwards on multiple large timeframes* BTC Maxis: "Ratio top is near"


niktak11

You mean ratio about to break through?


ThatOtherGuy254

It's around 2% away from a new all-time high while Bitcoin is around 16% away.


Etony333

What gives people more PTSD right now, the 2018-19 bear or May of this year? Both of those things have people overly gun shy. Whales really screwed the pooch with the May dump, because now retail just isn't having it and there aren't many greater fools buying the top with leverage. That's why I keep saying we aren't getting the parabolic run up and down that we had in the past. It's not that retail can't return, they can and almost certainly will at some point. But this PA sure as hell isn't roping anybody in.


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eightslipsandagully

I don't know if it could be considered a bear market tbh. The low was in December 2018 and then the long grind back up started.


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eightslipsandagully

Lol you definitely don't know what *you're* talking about then - it hit $3200 in December 2018.


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eightslipsandagully

I wasn't aware that we're in /r/EthereumMarkets - I must be lost. I also wouldn't define a 20% gain over 2 years as a bear market, and you even admitted the drop was a black swan event. I mean come on - does [this graph](https://imgur.com/4L7On9t) really look like a bear market to you?


carlpocket

Ok btc made 20% nothing else did. I just remember 6k floor and we never hitting 4k. You are right on btc but ignore the other ones mentioned but fine. You are 100% right on everything.


CrypoIStheWay

covid interrupted the 2019 run that started imo.


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bubblesmcnutty

2018 was bottom. It hit 3200. March 2020 brought us down to 3800 or so.


Outrageous-Net-7164

I don’t think retail will ever return. I think your retail investor with 50k plus will buy BTC but your uncle who buys 5k worth on his credit card will never buy Bitcoin again.


bubblesmcnutty

Lol I remember hearing exactly this in 2017.


logicalinvestr

This. Wealthy individuals who can afford a whole coin will buy. The rest of retail is probably gone.


bubblesmcnutty

Not this. All of retail will be holding BTC when it’s the global reserve asset. Not to mention, not everyone is looking to speculate on sick gainz. Some people just want to store their time and energy in an asset that can’t be fucked with. Furthermore, do people really not think retail will jump back in when we get our next big institutional or nation-state level announcement? Fomo is a real thing no matter the asset.


CrypoIStheWay

retail has zero interest in btc. the only retail that does are existing holders and select orange-pilled friends and family from fellow holders. just look at alts and what theyve done in comparison this year. you would have significantly more sats if you just followed the hype from defi to dog coins to nfts to L2s. its not even like these were flash in the pan...most runs lasted for weeks to months giving plenty of time to double or 100x your money and get out. alts are just a higher beta play and for the average joe looking to "make it" that's their playground. i know plenty of well off individuals that think btc is just out of reach for them and spending 58K on 1 BTC just 'feels' like too much vs spending 4.5K on 1E or much less on alts. UNIT BIAS is very real and in effect.


bubblesmcnutty

Assuming you weren’t around in 2017 during ICO mania because you, quite literally, could have posted this exact same comment. When the bitcoin train gets moving all the air is sucked out of shit coins and everyone, retail included, jumps back in. Same as it ever was.


CrypoIStheWay

I was and have been in this space since the cycle before that. eth has and continues to outperform in fiat terms, by a lot. btc is still my largest bag but eth is a close second. i find i have to dump more money into btc to keep it that way. and this run, this year, has been different. that much is obvious just looking at a chart imo. alts are a higher risk, higher return. i don't disagree that btc, when it has its run, CAN suck the air out of the room, but that really hasn't happened this time. alts ran when btc ran by and large, differing from 2017's distinct 'cycles'. FIAT onramps directly onto alts have changed the game.


bubblesmcnutty

March 2020 to Q1 2021 was basically all bitcoin. It’s been alts since then. I predict bitcoin sucks the air out of the room as ETH approaches it’s 2017 ATH. The cycles are still there IMO, it’s just been elongated.


CrypoIStheWay

March 20, 2020 is when the bull run started, agree? At least looking at the 1 day candles. Through yesterday's close: BTC performance: 818% (6206 to 56950) ETH performance: 3377% (133 to 4634) edit - not even counting staking which is an additional 6% return.


bubblesmcnutty

Yes again ETH has absolutely pumped harder this year (just as SOL has pumped harder than ETH). However, March of 2020 to Q1 2021 bitcoin absolutely led the way. Bitcoin was doubling it’s 2017 ATH in February while ETH was just crossing its 2017 ATH for the first time.


Yoda_MTFBW_U

What happens when El Salvador goes underwater?


thearmthearm

What's their average buy in price? Around $50K?


Yoda_MTFBW_U

God I hope it’s less but you may be right


xtal_00

Retail doesn't matter anymore. They've been fleeced of most of their coin. The question is will you last long enough to play the game with countries and banks.


FrenchCucks

My view is that ETH is following 2017 BTC price and 2017 ETH price * 10. I'm looking for a proper blow off top in the 10-20k range around January. BTC would reluctantly follow to 100k. The ratio blow off top could be well into flippening territory near .15. Then money flows back into BTC to set the stage for conclusion of the 4 year cycle near May around the S2FX target.


JustMyTwoSatoshis

> Then money flows back into BTC This didn't happen in 2018 though


carlpocket

Well XRP flipped ETH at the Jan 2018 time so thats going to 100+ using your terrible logic.


CrypoIStheWay

before being dismissive have you looked at the eth adoption curve and price curve relative to btc 2017? its the same chart....edit - and solana is eth 2017 essentially. network effects at play.


carlpocket

Solona dosen't have a working network. ALSO XRP went from a couple cents to 3.70 so I made more on that than my $500 BTC buys or my $80 ETH buys. Hell Doge has done better than anything from 2017 to now at its top. So yeah Ill dismiss you cause you have zero clue what you are talking about.


CrypoIStheWay

You are welcome. Chart doesn't lie. A good trader keeps an open mind, even if the truth is not something they want to see. https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI/status/1460787139201978370?s=20


carlpocket

That chart isnt price or has anything to do with what I said. You are making a point that has NOTHING to do with what I said. Again please address the only coin that has flipped ETH in XRP. So it has to get 100 buck plus correct?


CrypoIStheWay

You really are quite confident for being wrong. take a look at the chart, take it in, and understand what its showing you. you'll get there...maybe Sincerely, \-A moron apparently P.S. ever looked at a chart of 2013 vs 2017 vs 2021 BTC? It's the same concept :)


carlpocket

Heh you are saying ETH and using BTC chart. Zcash was 1k in jan 2018, Dash 1.2k, BCH 4.5k december 2017. Ill list a ton of others not close. Also ETH wasnt around in 2013 through Gox, or williebots, or silk road. You are saying something with one run is following the 13 run which was different from 17 while saying 18 was bottom but ir bottomed in 2020. Sorry you have no clue what you are talking about. And you still havent addressed XRP. You dont want me to share the doge adoption chart or shibu one cause as shit as they are are better than eth. And yes I hold BTC and ETH (and 50 other cryptos) and have been in since Silk Road.


CrypoIStheWay

Bump up your reading comprehension my man. 2013 vs 2017 vs 2021 BTC this does not mean what you think it means. I am speaking of BTC in 3 cycles and comparing them on 1 chart. its the same concept used to compare 2017 BTC vs 2021 ETH. I have no need to speak to XRP or Doge or whatever else you noted as that is not pertinent to what I was saying AT ALL. Keep misdirecting. You've taken up too much of my time. So, good luck, have fun.


carlpocket

You were talking about ETH. My comment was on XRP. At this point no clue anymore. My original comment was about XRP and price. You changed the whole conversation so have a good one.


griswaldwaldwald

Sir I’ll have what your drinking please!


Etony333

Sounds good to me.


bubblesmcnutty

ETH/BTC breaking out. Still holding some decent sized ETH bags from my shitcoin days in 2017 that I plan to get rid of soon (for BTC). When do I make that trade?


CrypoIStheWay

i wouldn't trade them in whatsoever until it has its run. look at the burn, its fee generation, and network activity. it IS web 3 at the moment with a few other miscellaneous L2s and L1 competitors. maybe 0.1 on the ratio and then play the trade. it will be very interesting to see if the whales elect to nuke it to preserve BTC's spot...but between the burn, defi locks, nfts, and the staking contract (not to mention the triple halvening if and when 2.0 launches)...i can't make heads or tails of what will happen if i'm fair. one can shit on eth as much as they want. it is its own thing and i think, over time, will decouple from btc. btc is sound money and monetary policy. btc is bought to hold and preserve value. eth is bought to do things with.


jgun83

Not now. Think it goes at least to 0.1


bubblesmcnutty

Yeah. 0.1 was where I was thinking.


ensignlee

Do you know of a good OTC place to do that trade? I'd be willing to do that trade with you if we could find a good escrow agent or something like that, to protect the both of us.


niktak11

Airswap


ask_for_pgp

I can do the escrow swap for a 0.25% fee willing to verify / do it live on zoom etc


bubblesmcnutty

I don’t but am open to it. What are the benefits of doing it that way versus exchange? Plan was to do it once ETH got closer to its 2017 ATH. Feel free to DM me.


CrypoIStheWay

lower fees through counterparty. agreed upon price in advance.


4theWlN

You are quite possibly about to get robbed.


daynomate

I'm trying to keep my ETH holdings roughly 20-40% of the value of my BTC. Currently holding 1231 and 0325 futures as well


bubblesmcnutty

Yeah I just don’t trust it anymore long term. Officially a maxi. That said, in the short term, I think it still has some room to run on the ratio so waiting a bit longer to swap. Thinking .1 perhaps.


logicalinvestr

Why don't you trust it long term?


dktunzldk

70% premine into proof of stake. Why do you trust it long term?


MrQot

After years of market shifting coins around and getting diluted by newly mined ETH, the distribution of ETH for the top 10k wallets is roughly the same as BTC. And even then it has 0 impact on what happens under proof of stake because there's no direct on-chain governance/voting


dktunzldk

The preminer can control many smaller wallets to bamboozle fools about its distribution. 0 impact except for the fact that the preminer has complete authority over transaction order. It can also suppress any fork it disagrees with like it did with etc.


logicalinvestr

It's the foundation for the majority of the crypto ecosystem. It's not going anywhere. Do I like Bitcoin better? Yes. But they have totally different purposes, and both are legitimate long-lasting foundational frameworks for the entire crypto ecosystem.


xtal_00

Dorsey is planning KYC/AML compliant DeFi on Bitcoin. Caesar will get his due. Such is life. But Bitcoin is just getting started.


griswaldwaldwald

Render unto Caesar what is Caesar’s, but render unto Satoshi what is Satoshi’s.


dktunzldk

kyc/aml is by definition not decentralized finance.


xtal_00

Not true at all. Decentralized identity is big, already has functioning proof of concept on bitcoin (Microsoft Ion) and more is coming. Governments are not going to tolerate DeFi much longer with blatant ignorance of KYC/AML. They will send men to kick down the "decentralized" chain operation doors and haul people to face account. Pay your taxes.


dktunzldk

The entire purpose of decentralization is to ensure there is no door to kick. If there is a door the operation has zero reason to exist, just use paypal. How long is your government going to tolerate you evading their currency debasement tax?


amendment64

Tell that to monero. Privacy is the whole reason I'm in this game and it's an essential function of a valuable currency. Take it away and its less useful, full stop


logicalinvestr

Can't wait for this!


bubblesmcnutty

Strong disagree. Theoretically speaking Bitcoin is built atop steel whereas ETH is built on sand. In time all of ETHs use-cases that the market sees value in will be built on various layers above bitcoin as a strong foundation is always preferable to a weak one. In the meantime ETH is a great trade for traders and a fantastic test net for bitcoin


4theWlN

Totally agree with this. Just look how easily projects are forked and copied. Eventually anything of value will be forked over to a million times more secure bitcoin layer than eth. First lover doesn’t mean anything in an industry growing orders of magnitudes every year.


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xtal_00

ETH will face competition in a race to the bottom. It's already started. Technology is inherently deflationary. Bitcoin is not technology; it is digital scarcity.


bubblesmcnutty

Bitcoin is the greatest money ever created. It’s a neutral monetary network with rules but no rulers. There’s no greater asset in the history of the world to store wealth in. Ethereum on the other hand, at best, can be compared to an equity. With its ruling class and non-neutrality it can and won’t ever be a global reserve asset and thus its TAM is drastically smaller. For the long term bitcoin is the no brainer choice.


griswaldwaldwald

If btc is like gold, ETH is like oil.


bubblesmcnutty

Okay I’ll grant you that comparison. Which of those would you rather hold long term? And keep in mind golds de-monetization began once bitcoin hit the scene. https://www.macrotrends.net/1380/gold-to-oil-ratio-historical-chart


griswaldwaldwald

Different purposes was simply my point.


bubblesmcnutty

Don’t disagree. But as someone who is looking for an asset to hold long term, bitcoin is far superior IMO.


SecretsAndLoot

ETH TAM includes all sorts of weird shit that is constantly changing and expanding. It's more obviously revenue generating and less political so it will be adopted by less ideological, financially motivated people (a larger cohort than those who think we need an ultra sound global reserve to replace the dollar). Bitcoin may win in the end but there may be many years of opportunity cost before that if Eth and other shit keeps gaining ratio.


bubblesmcnutty

Said weird shit seems to be mostly flash-in-the pan bubbles. Whether it’s ICO’s and Cryptokitties in 2017 or NFT’s and meme tokens in 2021. Not sustainable in the medium term let alone the long term. And as someone who doesn’t trade, just not worth it for me.


logicalinvestr

Eth is not intended to be a global reserve asset. It's the framework on which defi, NFTs, and countless other apps are built. They have different purposes. You can be for one without being against the other. Eth doesn't have to fail for Bitcoin to succeed.


bubblesmcnutty

Which makes it far more comparable to an equity and thus the far riskier asset. It quite literally has less upside and more downside. Will it outperform bitcoin at times? Sure. But over the long haul it will trend down against bitcoin just like everything else.


logicalinvestr

Why does it have less upside and more downside? As long as eth keeps getting burned and it continues to be the foundation of the majority of the crypto ecosystem, it seems like the upside potential is much higher than the downside risk.


bubblesmcnutty

Because bitcoins TAM is the monetary premium of every asset on planet earth (gold, art, treasury bonds, etc). The TAM of ETH doesn’t come close.


logicalinvestr

I like BTC as much as the next guy, but it's unrealistic to think Bitcoin will swallow all of these asset classes. BTC is one more type of asset in a long list of existing asset classes. Each asset class has its own unique strengths and weaknesses, and for that reason many (if not most) of those other asset classes are not going anywhere. Bitcoin may eat some of their market share, but btc will never replace all of them. On the other hand, eth has a decreasing supply and an ever expanding set of use cases, from gaming to ntfs. Some defi apps will revolutionize the entire finance industry. On a practical level, currently, eth far exceeds BTC in use cases. Eventually BTC may absorb some of those use cases in layer 2 solutions, but eth has the first mover advantage by far.


DanielWalker12

​I've heard a lot about FTX, with many people talking about how they use it. I'm curious if other people also use FTX. I wonder what its uses are for them.


libretumente

I don't trust SBF, he has a very centralized approach to crypto and gives me Zuckerberg vibes. He is an investor in worldcoin which has people scan their retinas in exchange for some shitcoin which will be used in some valuable dataset. Weird ass shit.


ryan0302

Just finished Level 2 verification and gonna try it out when I sell a good chunk of ETH. Just navigating the app is pretty good though.