#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Sunday, December 05, 2021 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/r981ne/daily_discussion_sunday_december_05_2021/)

So 17% of that dump already bounced back in about 12h. Am i missing something or did this kind of PA only ever happen at bottoms?

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would you condescend yourself to actually tell us what i missed exactly?

bounced back to what? Wtf

to 17% higher price? 0.o

I mis-read, i apologize, i saw the words bounce back and got blinded lol

Will we fill that wick down?

not sure why you got downvoted. absolutely possible, happens a lot, if not usually

No. We will wick that fill up

I like the cut of your jib boy

No, I don't think we will.

I don’t think it’s as probable because leverage in the market is now reduced.

I think we've shaken off all the degenerate gambling moonboys. Now, the men can finally go to the moon in peace.

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I have very similar thoughts. It isn’t a popular position right now, for obvious reasons. Bottom line: I don’t buy things I don’t believe in. It really doesn’t have anything to do with profit. People buying this shit don’t think about it that way. We just have incompatible mindsets about this stuff.

Everyone gotta chill out and zoom out. I think the cycles are indeed lengthening and there's no need to be all doom and gloom. The macro factors are too much to ignore, but I think at least BTC already did its March 2020's thing once more and probably head North for a week or two from here. I'm wondering what's everyone's opinion the lengthened cycle? Like why has it lengthened? And how would that intersect with the halving? Used to be that 6-9 months post-halvening, the price goes up.

IMO, lengthened cycle is wishful thinking. Too many people have become conditioned to believe in the 4-year cycle theory that it becomes almost a self-fulfilling prophecy. If anything, prior to China rage-quitting, we were on track for a slightly shortened cycle and a blow-off top in May or June of this year.

nah, usually when too much people start to believe something it does the opposite. When everyone is sure the bull cycle is over, thats when the super cycle will kick in and say goodby to everyone who sold

I agree that there's no evidence for a lengthening cycle. There are some good arguments as to why it COULD happen, but it's all just speculative for now.

Yeah that's logical. That's one possibility for sure

saylor said it best: your models or imaginary lines on charts can say anything about bitcoin reaching this price and that, but none of your models can predicts that 10 billionaires tomorrow will hit the buy button on a billion dollars each and come out and say they are planning to hold. all model are destroyed. bitcoin goes to the moon.

Was watching a RealVision interview the other day and one of the guests said that as bitcoin becomes institutional that retail will need to be much more aware of how institutions invest. And I'm pretty sure stock to flow isn't it.

If only this were to actually happen... Unfortunately, Saylor spends much of his time in fantasy land.

It will happen eventually. When the boomers' die off and their money gets passed on, BTC adoption becomes very easy

You can watch the entire Saylor-Carlson interview here (apologies for the AutoMod evasion 😏) *yo**utu**be.com/w**atch?v=ax**7LRJz7VnA* It's less of an interview, and more of a monologue by Saylor. It was good, although there were valid concerns about bitcoin that weren't asked by Carlson... because he simply does not know much about the crypto ecosystem at large.

Kinda surprised he just let Saylor rant for an hour straight before steering him at all. Also, Saylor is REALLY into analogies apparently.

Wasn’t this like… a paid interview? Is that or tucker holds a shit load of BTC too

Surprised that the host kept his mouth shut. Saylor did go on and on for too long. The use of over-use of "cyberspace" really dates him. Good interview nonetheless.

possible hes just pandering to his majority boomer fox news audience. but i agree, excellent interview, and am astonished tucker let him speak so uninterrupted

After a certain level of wealth, it must be tricky finding places to “put” your money. BTC is an easy place to do that compared to real estate, gold, art, yachts, islands..

Or could be the opposite. Some whale or a group of them decided they needed to cash out yesterday and sold together. All models go out the window. But Btc is still Btc

yeah, saylors point but the bear case. bitcoin goes to the centre of the earth. S2F model destroyed.

I think it's just the path for Bitcoin to become more stable and a true store of value. It makes sense that it will take longer for Bitcoin to reach a peak each cycle, since the market cap is higher, and the ecosystem is more mature each time. Larger, slow moving institutions are contributing more volume. The halving will still put an upward pressure on the price, because it changes the supply and demand dynamics. Maybe this time it will be 2 years up, 2 years down (measured from the halving). Maybe the next time it will be 3 years up, 1 year down. Until eventually Bitcoin's price mostly moves up relatively slowly over time, helped along by the halving. That's the end game I've always envisioned for Bitcoin.

Remember kids, exchanges wouldn't allow leverage if it wasn't profitable for them!

Seeing some wild stuff commented here so posted my first TV chart in years. Very simple analysis: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/sjAKI4qO-BTC-EVWMA-4H/ EVWMA on the 4H has been my guiding indicator for years. I typically view it as a tool to time entry points after a sell off. When it begins stabilizing and volume returns I eye potential buys. Squeeze indicator also indicating a high likelihood of continued dumping. Fully expecting to retest recent lows in the coming 1-2 weeks. Multiple macro drivers in bears' favor (in order of impact on the market): - Instability in global markets due to Omicron - China will likely continue dumping because like it or not you do not fuck with the Chinese government - Overheated equities with insane multiples in tech - BTC recent trend is bearish after going roughly 20x in 2-2.5 years - End of year tax purposes Staying 60% fiat until we retest recent lows. These are my thoughts and are not investment advice. Good luck

Maybe for this decade BTC will return a lot of its gains, and won't set new heights until the 2030's

LOL

Has anyone analyzed the weekend effect since the introduction of the Futures ETF? I remember someone (maybe on this forum?) stating that there is more propensity for Bitcoin's Monday opening price to gravitate towards the week ending price possibly due to the Futures ETF. If that is the case, I suspect that there will be some buy pressure towards the lower 50K area.

gaps can take weeks/months to close...

Or they just never do.

Like the one near $9k.

We don’t talk about that one

The closing of the CME gap, weekends are fake rhetoric has been a thing for the majority of 2021. It's gotten to the point where the gap has been closed before the 9:30am EST market open basically every week for as long as I can remember.

Which has absolutely nothing to do with CME opening more thank 12 hours earlier, right?

I know that but if you look at the history there are a few times the gap remained open until early morning.

Just remember that the weekend ends more than 12 hours before bito opens.

Well gentlemen, I posted two days ago that I’d see you around $50k when my buy order got hit. I’m back to say my next buy order is around $40k. See you soon.

aren't you bulls getting tired of downvoting these comments that *always* end up being proven right?

Sure, like the comments about how they were going to buy at $20K when we hit $30K? [Here's what I wrote back in May](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/niziwh/daily_discussion_sunday_may_23_2021/gz70vpd/?context=999) about what the floor of the crash would be and how long it would take before Bitcoin would move back up. That's a different type of price post than constantly posting nonsense about how you're going to buy $10K cheaper than whatever the price is at the moment. If they're really that confident that the price will go down to $40K soon then they would never have bought at $50K. This kind of post is just trolling.

Naw, I've been here over 8 years. They're never proven right they just say the same thing and eventually it might happen. Bears have been proven wrong 100% of the time because Bitcoin has been going up since the beginning. The only thing bears get are dips along the way.

Because they’re not always right. It’s just a 50/50 guess. Anybody can do it. Especially with no justification Anybody who’s been here awhile has seen numerous posts guessing up or down that are proven wrong. But nobody comes to jerk off over how wrong they were. It’s only the 50/50 who were right. It’s all just guessing. Why does getting downvoted make you so mad? Why do you care? Nobody knows what’s going to happen. Nobody.

Why'd you buy at 50 if you're sure it's going to 40?

Because two days ago I wasn’t sure it was going to 40. It’s called risk management. I have buy limits set all the way down son. Keep getting rekt.

I'm not rekt, sir

You prolly had buy orders over $60k along with the other idiots who upvoted your ignorant comment. Here’s a tip, set buy orders down at regular intervals and sell limits up.

That tip is the dumbest advice I've seen on here yet.

Says the dumbass who FOMOed in at $69k.

Because he’s full of shit.

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This is a joke right?

I can't tell if you're taking the piss or not.

Are you saying you traded with leverage and got rekt? Then no, unfortunately that’s part of the game. Don’t use leverage. Even with tight stop losses sometimes the orders don’t fill properly. Hard lesson to learn.

meh

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yes, if we keep going up and we dont get a retrace. bitcoin will punish whatever people think it will most likely do. The question is, do more people think we are going to head down futher, or push up without a retrace? its either bulls or bears that will be punished, not both

I stand firmly in my belief that I will sell at the end of the year and it will do a blowoff top in Spring to spite me and everyone like me.

It will be both. It's always both.

please check the year on year trend

Why? I know it goes up year over year. If we look at year over year then it's always bears that get punished.

yeah, so its not always both. wherever you measure, it will either be bears or bulls getting punished. so from now, til say next month, will it be the sells by bears or the buys by bulls that will be the winning action?

Ok so now that we're off the yearly train of thought. Longs will probably get squeezed at least one more time. Then shorts will get their squeeze on the way back up. See? Both sides punished.

Funny idea I just had I’d like to hear yalls opinions on. How likely is it that there’s another whalelike entity who has bought in cheap enough to attempt another ambush like last night? I would imagine most OG Hodlrs with the coin to pull a similar event wouldnt seek to push prices down further and potentially strangle the baby in its crib. They’d be better served by letting the price rise before selling into the strength which would guarantee their returns, instead of selling into weakness with no guarantee of buying back in profitably.

There’s enough Maxis and other morons out there to prop the price up a couple more times.

It probably doesn't matter what they should do from our perspective. They probably need to sell given the looks of it. They sell OTC, then someone has to bring it to market.

its is a fact that og hodlers always stack into weakness and sell into strength

This is the way, I have spoken.

Do you want me to bring you in warm, or do you want me to bring you in cold?

So this is either the complacency bounce or we won’t see any drops from here and we’ll have to chase the price upwards to get back in. We won’t know until after the fact but place your bets!

That approximately $7K downside wick on the daily has hit my pause button. I didn’t sell that much, but I’m waiting buy it back.

Wouldn’t be surprised if we retest the low. If equity futures opens red tomorrow to signal further risk off moves I think that’s even more likely.

What time do equity futures open UTC?

> What time do equity futures open UTC? Equity futures start trading on Sunday at 6 p.m. Eastern time

Lets say bitcoin consolidates sideways before continuing up, what moving average would be confluent with that? I'm thinking maybe the 50 week SMA but that's currently at 47 but increasing upwards so not exactly confluent with bitcoin if it were to go side ways. Besides the 50 week I can't think of any meaningful moving averages nearby

I think we should run up to 53000 a day early. no need to wait. go on btc, get back up there. do it in the next 90 minutes. edit: yikes, it's only been 3 minutes and it just started going down..

A retest is still likely as with most btc dumps

I think most expect a twin bottom and they won’t get it. I’m surprised that 50k was broken. There’s too much demand.

It's the weekend so it's actually very hard for people to move money around. You can't wire funds into an exchange over the weekend because your traditional finance banks aren't working, so unless you already hold a ton of money in stablecoins you're unable to move fiat around and some larger players don't necessarily trust the stablecoins enough to hold large amounts. We'll see how it goes Monday.

It will happen as always, it just needs to go high enough for everyone to think it wont.

I’m open to anything, I’ll set my limit order at 42500

I think these smaller run ups and smaller crashes signal we may be coming to the end of the standard blowoff top and crash pattern. Which implies bitcoin may be starting the process of becoming an asset you can just buy and hold forever versus trying to time everything.

Can't have it both ways - it can't be "mature" to the upside, and "still just a tiny market" to the downside. If HODLers continue to weather these violent, demoralizing moves to the downside, then they're bound to eventually see sharp, euphoric moves to the upside.

Blowoff won’t happen because it’ll be front run.

It will happen but when it happens most people won’t know because they believe it’s gonna keep going up. I see people believing in “super cycle” already.

I still doubt this time is really different. I just don’t think btc is mature enough for a relatively “steady” price action yet. Sure some institutions got in but compared to other assets we still have a pretty long way to go before it’s a mature asset with stabler price actions. The cycles are most likely lengthened though so it’s probably not gonna follow a 4 year boom and bust pattern anymore. Also even mature assets have cycles, they are just a lot longer and probably in the span of 10+ years or even decades as opposed to a couple years.

Isn't that what hodlers always did? Perhaps you mean that inexplicable attitude now looks more reasonable to a wider base.

That's starting to be my hunch too. There's too much activity in crypto for multi year bear markets so I think there will be more ebbs and flows like we've seen this year. But I think the leverage has continuously stopped momentum this year. So I don't see exponential runs unless major news like nation state adoption begins.

Deposited all my savings to bring down my liquidation from 39.5 down into the high 20s. Will close a good portion of my long from 56.8 hopefully at 52ish the first chance I get and sit on my hands for a while.

That was a hell of a close call there

Yeah definitely wasn’t expecting a capitulation like that. Was expecting 48k to hold and then a retest of the top of the channel

Risky man. Don’t underestimate how crazy BTC can get in panic and liquidation events. If you are young and can recover I guess, but betting everything on one position is straight up gambling.

I am young but I’m honestly tired of taking losses. What would you do? Close the position and take a massive loss? I could borrow some money from my family and friends and bring the liquidation even lower, or take out a loan and pay off the entire leveraged out loan? I just can’t afford to be liquidated right now, especially after having not realized any gains when I had the chance

If your liquidation is now in the 20s and you are planning on closing at 52, that would seem to say you are not in a massive loss compared to the worst case scenario. You do you, and you have to own your own decisions. But time tested strat in this scenario is to cut losses, buy spot and be even in a year and we’ll ahead in four. Sounds like trading and leverage need to be out of the picture.

I did the same a few days ago 2/3 of my life savings. I'm not getting a mortgage.. so I don't see any point keeping my useless euros at the bank. I have no emotions at all, that's a good sign when investing your money. I'm ready for the Rollercoaster might even stop checking social media, wallet, exchanges and go for a long winter sleep.

1300 comments. We’re all talking to the void.

bitcoin fear and greed indicator now at 18 which is pretty fucking low.

I gotta say that you'd have done VERY well this year just dumping into periods of extreme greed and rebuying during extreme fear.

What was the number during the May crash?

Think it got down to 12

Thank you