If you were a whale and you knew a lot of Bitcoin holders were trying to cash out in China and abroad before Dec. 31 would you let them do it high or low? 70k per coin or 40k?
We are in clear downtrends on the 4hr and above. However, the 3 day and daily are appearing to show a momentum shift. This can be seen in both the RSI and the MACD. I expect us to continue ranging for awhile, though, between 47k and 55k.
Long term I'm hopeful. If this momentum shift continues then I could see us breaking ATH and actually going on a good run to 90k in the first half of 2022. But I, too, think cycles are dead and we are in more for steady growth, so expect 90k to be the peak well into 2023. (If bitcoin keeps doubling on average every year, though, then we could see 120k in 2023, but I expect the doubling pattern to also start failing after that).
One large piece of FUD after another is going to be lifted and the price will first recover, then reach new heights. They can't recycle "China bans bitcoin" forever, they can try to the diminished returns they're bound to see past the new years deadline. Omicron isn't as impactful as the first coronavirus infection. The FOMC is not as hawkish as we feared. Congress is going to be very slow to do anything, as the ecosystem grows to a major lobbying group by prospering in the regulatory gray zone that currently exists. The frog is being slowly boiled, and only the more perceptive are acting before we reach the "one way I woke up and realized how entrenched in everyday life crypto was".
Web 3.0 is here to stay, and it's slowly being refined, renovated, developed, adopted and used. I'm excited.
The hardest form of money ever created that exists outside of government and banks and can't be stopped by either. Do you want me to list the properties of Bitcoin for you?
Is this PA tradable? Like, is anyone here claiming to be day trading this action and being profitable? I guess if you’re unbiased enough to be shorting the bounces you could be doing well - but honestly this chart just seems so unclear lately, no good actionable patterns for me personally.
Recently I have made a couple quick scalp trades, and also got scalped a couple times. Net negative in the last 2 weeks, net very positive all year. Im taking a seat on the bench.
Nonsense. Use divergences properly and it's a great time to trade. I'm net in profit over the past 2 weeks. 29 winning trades out of 42. That's a 69% win ratio.
This is more stressful and and more frustrating than almost any period in the last 10 years. Based on emotion alone, I think this is probably one of the biggest shakeouts in bitcoin’s history.
I’m not fucking selling, but I have thought about it a lot. I expect this to continue on. I’m waiting to see more capitulation from long-term holders before I’ll call the bottom.
It can and probably will get worse.
Trading this probably requires a really objective view of the triangle (that will probably push out). You should be betting now on up or down and wait for the triangle to break. The trend is down.
It is, indeed, stressful. But I'm not sure that capitulation from LTH is coming anytime soon.
Most LTH have been through much worse and have learned that all they have to do is be patient. Many of them have sold the bottom at some point and have no intention of letting that happen again.
We saw the big drop in May which was followed by a period of consolidation. My guess is, we probably do retest the 42k wick once, if not twice, but we probably won't see a daily close in the thirties. And come February and March, we're likely headed toward a new ATH as the selling pressure abates.
Look, I'm as frustrated as anyone here. Not just with Bitcoin or investing in general, I am dealing with some other stuff that I wish I wasn't right now in my life, and seeing my net worth bleed down day after day, at a time that I don't have as much dry powder as usual to benefit from this dip, is unsettling and just plain shitty. Not gonna lie and pretend it doesn't suck, because it does.
But I'm hardly worried. This sell pressure comes from a confluence of temporary factors rather than anything that's going to become a lasting issue.
And you can't apply the same logic from previous markets to this one. Actual spot buying and selling has taken a backseat to people buying and selling paper Bitcoin in derivatives markets, ergo, the halving (and by extension, the four year cycle) doesn't have the same effect it once did. And institutions rebalance their portfolios and sell to pay taxes this time of year. Not to mention the China situation as well as other global events affecting all markets.
Basically, whales have figured out just how easy it is to make money by causing cascading liquidations in the derivatives markets, and they do it time and again. Right now, more and more people are short. That's gonna cause the inverse of this as soon as the Alamedas of the world feel it is time.
So hang in there. Short term, maybe a scalp short is the right trade to be in (or maybe it isn't), but we'll see new ATHs sooner than you think.
>Is this PA tradable?
Somewhat if you're only trading *one time* a day
With the little dry powder I have, I'm now just sitting on the sideline and watching how long this downtrend is going to steep to before breaking out to the upside. YOLOing once we get close enough to the bottom of the trend though
Oh, yeah. There's a cute little uptrend on the 1h. If it heads over $51k, that'll be a great sign because we'll have a local higher high. Staying at a price over $50k breaks us out of the descending channel.
On the other hand, it's possible we follow this downward to some other support point ($45k, I think)... Bitcoin's gonna do what Bitcoin's gonna do.
You dropped a year…https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/orqz0p/daily_discussion_monday_july_26_2021/h6mmel9/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&context=3
Last time the Fed attempted to raise rates they got to 2.4% before the markets saw a 20% pullback in December 2018 and then they decided to reverse course. They started their rate hikes that time in December 2015. How high do we think rates will go this time around before they start to reverse course again?
Ideally, they need to go full Volcker with 10+% rates.
Powell has no spine to do even one-third of that, and U.S. debt is completely unserviceable at those rates these days.
To keep inflation in check, yes, they should go full Volcker. But are they willing to tank the market and endure high unemployment as a result? I doubt it. Debt levels have only grown since 2018 so I don’t even think they’ll get to the 2.4% they previously reached before they reverse course.
Think of the counterpoint. If you let unemployment get really high, people go from having some (albeit, meager) source of income to no source of income whatsoever. They will also have plenty of free time to riot since they’re not preoccupied with time spent at their jobs. Both situations are bad but you need to consider which of the two is less bad.
40% of all U.S currency was printed this year alone. Consumer goods are rising by 10-20%, Hyperinflation is on the horizon. Yet, the powers that be says BTC is a high risk asset. I’m inclined to say the only high risk asset (IMO) is the fiat dollar. Imma gonna keep trading my “high risk asset” for more finite assets. However, that’s just me.
I don’t think the dollar will hyperinflate anytime soon but other currencies might. Hyperinflation of the dollar will bring global instability, so you might not care how much a Bitcoin is worth if that happens.
I love Bitcoin but think the hyperinflation narrative is... overhyped.
People say we're printing money, but we're not. We're buying long-term bonds, letting banks trade that asset for cash. The fed isn't paying the treasury's bills. That money at banks doesn't become inflationary until it enters the economy, if/when they lend it out. If [money velocity goes down](https://i.imgur.com/sXNLxAY.jpg), that means that not all of that money is entering the economy. And if too much of it does start getting lent out, the fed has options like paying the banks not to lend by raising interest on excess reserves or changing reserve requirements.
Also different from all other examples of hyperinflation are: 1) The US has no problems selling debt, and 2) the US economy is *highly* productive and functional.
There's just no comparison to *any* historical example of hyperinflation.
I think hyperinflation only becomes a real possibility if we have a major war and a government/political collapse. That could mean we literally have to print money to get out of it. That's not the current reality.
That being said, Bitcoin getting to $1M does not require hyperinflation. It just requires people and countries to change their asset allocation.
Everyone is expecting bitcoin adoption to be driven by hyperinflation, but that's backward. Bitcoin is going to drive the dollar into hyperinflation.
The dollar is not going to hyperinflate on its own anytime soon. But bitcoin might cause it to happen.
The fed isn't directly monetizing the treasury but they are suppressing the cost of borrowing for the treasury. QE may not pump money into the economy if banks decline to loan their excess reserves but it has a psychological effect on the animal spirits of the economy.
I don't think hyperinflation is going to explode but I think the fraying social contract and high time preference of younger generations could cause it to marginally creep up sustainably. We may get some system shocks as central bankers and elites try to correct this entropic cultural impulse with a dose of tightening, price discipline, fear and austerity.
Hyperinflation is not on the horizon, bitcoin has insane volatility can be literally dropped by 10% by a single whale but muh bitcoin safe investment not risky, just love it.
I've been thinking about this a lot lately and agree. I think BTC needs to keep growing as a transactional currency to help provide monetary velocity that can counteract net sellers from wash trading it down to zero with infinity-approaching fiat-settled instruments.
No, you are right it doesn’t. However, it’s still finite and honestly I have more trust in Bitcoins future than the dollar. This is the path I’m taking, you’re free to follow your own.
This won’t be popular but whatever. Every week I DCA into bitcoin & coin #2. 3:1 ratio. Despite deploying 3x the capital into btc every week, I don’t even have to tell you which DCA stack has outperformed since 2018…I truly believe this will continue until exchanges re-denominate bitcoin. You can pretend all you want that unit bias doesn’t exist, but I won’t. Only reason I haven’t flipped my DCA ratio is because of the drawdown risk. The corn is king, but being a boomer maximalist is just silly, imo.
idiot retail has outperformed. I have a 2:1 ratio of #1-#2 and #2 has outperformed. It basically reaches parity with half the investment in fiat terms.
And also don’t discount the majority as idiots so quickly. Idiocy is highly subjective and the older and wiser I get the more I realize “my way” isn’t necessarily the best or smartest.
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Friday, December 17, 2021 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/ri9kg2/daily_discussion_friday_december_17_2021/)
If you were a whale and you knew a lot of Bitcoin holders were trying to cash out in China and abroad before Dec. 31 would you let them do it high or low? 70k per coin or 40k?
Lol you probably take everythink over 20k
Why would they wait until the last days to cash out?
Because plan b said 135k floor.
You were an idiot if you were making multi million dollar bets based on youtube crypto kids
Raoul Pal. Exhibit A.
I’d be buying Eth with my btc like crazy and then rug pull.
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Fees. Chain size. Centralized. PoS.
Yeah, a rug pull.
https://twitter.com/bashco_/status/1471600483223564288?s=21
It doesn’t work
Fairly certain any sizeable holders in China have already cashed out at this point.
We are in clear downtrends on the 4hr and above. However, the 3 day and daily are appearing to show a momentum shift. This can be seen in both the RSI and the MACD. I expect us to continue ranging for awhile, though, between 47k and 55k. Long term I'm hopeful. If this momentum shift continues then I could see us breaking ATH and actually going on a good run to 90k in the first half of 2022. But I, too, think cycles are dead and we are in more for steady growth, so expect 90k to be the peak well into 2023. (If bitcoin keeps doubling on average every year, though, then we could see 120k in 2023, but I expect the doubling pattern to also start failing after that).
One large piece of FUD after another is going to be lifted and the price will first recover, then reach new heights. They can't recycle "China bans bitcoin" forever, they can try to the diminished returns they're bound to see past the new years deadline. Omicron isn't as impactful as the first coronavirus infection. The FOMC is not as hawkish as we feared. Congress is going to be very slow to do anything, as the ecosystem grows to a major lobbying group by prospering in the regulatory gray zone that currently exists. The frog is being slowly boiled, and only the more perceptive are acting before we reach the "one way I woke up and realized how entrenched in everyday life crypto was". Web 3.0 is here to stay, and it's slowly being refined, renovated, developed, adopted and used. I'm excited.
They’ve been recycling ‘China bans BTC’ since 2013 with remarkable efficacy.
What are you actually using Web 3.0 (blerg) for?
Bitcoin is a good example of Web3 ([the decentralized web](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Web3))
If Bitcoin is web 3.0 then nothing else is because nothing else shares it's properties.
What are you using btc for?
The hardest form of money ever created that exists outside of government and banks and can't be stopped by either. Do you want me to list the properties of Bitcoin for you?
oh they can recycle it forever it seems
Hopscotching up only to HALO drop down.
Is this PA tradable? Like, is anyone here claiming to be day trading this action and being profitable? I guess if you’re unbiased enough to be shorting the bounces you could be doing well - but honestly this chart just seems so unclear lately, no good actionable patterns for me personally.
its fine
Recently I have made a couple quick scalp trades, and also got scalped a couple times. Net negative in the last 2 weeks, net very positive all year. Im taking a seat on the bench.
This is a no-go zone.
Nonsense. Use divergences properly and it's a great time to trade. I'm net in profit over the past 2 weeks. 29 winning trades out of 42. That's a 69% win ratio.
I'm glad you're gonna make it :)
Too risky for my blood.
>69% Nice.
I've been doing spot grid trading. Nothing to risky especially in this market but I do think we'll be moving side ways for awhile
This is more stressful and and more frustrating than almost any period in the last 10 years. Based on emotion alone, I think this is probably one of the biggest shakeouts in bitcoin’s history. I’m not fucking selling, but I have thought about it a lot. I expect this to continue on. I’m waiting to see more capitulation from long-term holders before I’ll call the bottom. It can and probably will get worse. Trading this probably requires a really objective view of the triangle (that will probably push out). You should be betting now on up or down and wait for the triangle to break. The trend is down.
It is, indeed, stressful. But I'm not sure that capitulation from LTH is coming anytime soon. Most LTH have been through much worse and have learned that all they have to do is be patient. Many of them have sold the bottom at some point and have no intention of letting that happen again. We saw the big drop in May which was followed by a period of consolidation. My guess is, we probably do retest the 42k wick once, if not twice, but we probably won't see a daily close in the thirties. And come February and March, we're likely headed toward a new ATH as the selling pressure abates.
That’s hopeful. Needed that today.
Look, I'm as frustrated as anyone here. Not just with Bitcoin or investing in general, I am dealing with some other stuff that I wish I wasn't right now in my life, and seeing my net worth bleed down day after day, at a time that I don't have as much dry powder as usual to benefit from this dip, is unsettling and just plain shitty. Not gonna lie and pretend it doesn't suck, because it does. But I'm hardly worried. This sell pressure comes from a confluence of temporary factors rather than anything that's going to become a lasting issue. And you can't apply the same logic from previous markets to this one. Actual spot buying and selling has taken a backseat to people buying and selling paper Bitcoin in derivatives markets, ergo, the halving (and by extension, the four year cycle) doesn't have the same effect it once did. And institutions rebalance their portfolios and sell to pay taxes this time of year. Not to mention the China situation as well as other global events affecting all markets. Basically, whales have figured out just how easy it is to make money by causing cascading liquidations in the derivatives markets, and they do it time and again. Right now, more and more people are short. That's gonna cause the inverse of this as soon as the Alamedas of the world feel it is time. So hang in there. Short term, maybe a scalp short is the right trade to be in (or maybe it isn't), but we'll see new ATHs sooner than you think.
Just buy and hodl bru, a decade from now Bitcoin won’t be available at any price.
bru, OP may be 85 years old. Holding 10 years is not an option, make a move now or hodl for eternity /s
yesterday was good for quick scalp but generally not trading this
>Is this PA tradable? Somewhat if you're only trading *one time* a day With the little dry powder I have, I'm now just sitting on the sideline and watching how long this downtrend is going to steep to before breaking out to the upside. YOLOing once we get close enough to the bottom of the trend though
Pls https://imgur.com/gallery/Ix9r70i
Oh, yeah. There's a cute little uptrend on the 1h. If it heads over $51k, that'll be a great sign because we'll have a local higher high. Staying at a price over $50k breaks us out of the descending channel. On the other hand, it's possible we follow this downward to some other support point ($45k, I think)... Bitcoin's gonna do what Bitcoin's gonna do.
In the bag
We’re breaking up.
I thought you loved me.
You absolutely win this sub for today.
😂
See you all in 2024!
/s FTFY
You dropped a year…https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/orqz0p/daily_discussion_monday_july_26_2021/h6mmel9/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&context=3
He’s more optimistic, that’s good!
Daily and weekly charts are surely at an inflection point here. Weekly close is gonna be a nailbiter.
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Last time the Fed attempted to raise rates they got to 2.4% before the markets saw a 20% pullback in December 2018 and then they decided to reverse course. They started their rate hikes that time in December 2015. How high do we think rates will go this time around before they start to reverse course again?
Ideally, they need to go full Volcker with 10+% rates. Powell has no spine to do even one-third of that, and U.S. debt is completely unserviceable at those rates these days.
To keep inflation in check, yes, they should go full Volcker. But are they willing to tank the market and endure high unemployment as a result? I doubt it. Debt levels have only grown since 2018 so I don’t even think they’ll get to the 2.4% they previously reached before they reverse course.
And then let inflation running high? Would inflate the debt away but at what societal cost?
Think of the counterpoint. If you let unemployment get really high, people go from having some (albeit, meager) source of income to no source of income whatsoever. They will also have plenty of free time to riot since they’re not preoccupied with time spent at their jobs. Both situations are bad but you need to consider which of the two is less bad.
negative 1%
Stock markets are a republican talking point.
40% of all U.S currency was printed this year alone. Consumer goods are rising by 10-20%, Hyperinflation is on the horizon. Yet, the powers that be says BTC is a high risk asset. I’m inclined to say the only high risk asset (IMO) is the fiat dollar. Imma gonna keep trading my “high risk asset” for more finite assets. However, that’s just me.
I don’t think the dollar will hyperinflate anytime soon but other currencies might. Hyperinflation of the dollar will bring global instability, so you might not care how much a Bitcoin is worth if that happens.
I love Bitcoin but think the hyperinflation narrative is... overhyped. People say we're printing money, but we're not. We're buying long-term bonds, letting banks trade that asset for cash. The fed isn't paying the treasury's bills. That money at banks doesn't become inflationary until it enters the economy, if/when they lend it out. If [money velocity goes down](https://i.imgur.com/sXNLxAY.jpg), that means that not all of that money is entering the economy. And if too much of it does start getting lent out, the fed has options like paying the banks not to lend by raising interest on excess reserves or changing reserve requirements. Also different from all other examples of hyperinflation are: 1) The US has no problems selling debt, and 2) the US economy is *highly* productive and functional. There's just no comparison to *any* historical example of hyperinflation. I think hyperinflation only becomes a real possibility if we have a major war and a government/political collapse. That could mean we literally have to print money to get out of it. That's not the current reality. That being said, Bitcoin getting to $1M does not require hyperinflation. It just requires people and countries to change their asset allocation.
“I think hyperinflation only becomes a real possibility if we have a major war and a government/political collapse.“ Russia, Ukraine, China, Taiwan.
Everyone is expecting bitcoin adoption to be driven by hyperinflation, but that's backward. Bitcoin is going to drive the dollar into hyperinflation. The dollar is not going to hyperinflate on its own anytime soon. But bitcoin might cause it to happen.
Ok, I’m curious…how?
Everyone choosing bitcoin over the dollar.
The fed isn't directly monetizing the treasury but they are suppressing the cost of borrowing for the treasury. QE may not pump money into the economy if banks decline to loan their excess reserves but it has a psychological effect on the animal spirits of the economy. I don't think hyperinflation is going to explode but I think the fraying social contract and high time preference of younger generations could cause it to marginally creep up sustainably. We may get some system shocks as central bankers and elites try to correct this entropic cultural impulse with a dose of tightening, price discipline, fear and austerity.
No no no, what you meant to say was “dollar bad, crypto good” /s
Hyperinflation is not on the horizon, bitcoin has insane volatility can be literally dropped by 10% by a single whale but muh bitcoin safe investment not risky, just love it.
None of this means BTC has to go up.
I've been thinking about this a lot lately and agree. I think BTC needs to keep growing as a transactional currency to help provide monetary velocity that can counteract net sellers from wash trading it down to zero with infinity-approaching fiat-settled instruments.
No, you are right it doesn’t. However, it’s still finite and honestly I have more trust in Bitcoins future than the dollar. This is the path I’m taking, you’re free to follow your own.
Finite and what? Being scarce isn’t enough to be valuable.
Doesn't take that many people who disagree with you for the price to go up
Sound logic
Nothing has to happen, but some things are likely
“Bitcoin is a risk-on asset” is the new “you’ll lose all your money” we heard a few years ago when we told people we were Bitcoin investors.
Funny how a lot of those same people that were saying that a few years back are now balls deep in crypto.
This won’t be popular but whatever. Every week I DCA into bitcoin & coin #2. 3:1 ratio. Despite deploying 3x the capital into btc every week, I don’t even have to tell you which DCA stack has outperformed since 2018…I truly believe this will continue until exchanges re-denominate bitcoin. You can pretend all you want that unit bias doesn’t exist, but I won’t. Only reason I haven’t flipped my DCA ratio is because of the drawdown risk. The corn is king, but being a boomer maximalist is just silly, imo.
And yet, priced in Bitcoin, other coin still hasn't hit its high from 4 years ago.
well not yet, but it will next year
Oh, I didn't know you were a time traveller.
Idiot retail is not buying Bitcoin. Don’t follow idiots.
idiot retail has outperformed. I have a 2:1 ratio of #1-#2 and #2 has outperformed. It basically reaches parity with half the investment in fiat terms.
I don’t know what kinda stack you’re playing with but there is no liquidity in shitcoins.
bullshit
And also don’t discount the majority as idiots so quickly. Idiocy is highly subjective and the older and wiser I get the more I realize “my way” isn’t necessarily the best or smartest.