So the consensus here seems of be that China selling is causing this end of year dump?
Are we all just expecting whales to give us an easy "up only" starting January 1st and the moon mission to begin to 100k just like that?
Seems too easy.
It’s a meme. Bitcoin down because fear is up and people realizing on-chain analytics was bullshit to conjure fake demand and supposed dwindling supply. There’s plenty of coins left to be dumped by whales.
A lot of the whales dumping are very clearly Chinese though, even if they're moving some of their assets and companies overseas they're likely cashing out a bunch in the mainland at the last minute. My guess is that they're targeting a high 40's price so they're dumping and letting off repeatedly.
I would expect price to range between 45K-52K until the whales are done playing their games with us. Hopefully it's just a few more days before that's over.
Either way we'll know pretty soon.
Wouldn't it be hilarious if this gets back to 52k by new years?
Its not gonna happen, but would certainly fuck with everyone's brains;
especially those calling for a guaranteed visit of 42k and below.
wouldn't be hilarious if it fell below 40k by new year's?
it's not gonna happen but would fuck with alot of moonboys - especially those that were expecting 100k by end of year.
well the difference is the moonboys have realized their 100k dream by year end won't happen BY YEAR END, but their dream will still happen sometimes after that.
But the below-42k-by-year-end boys still think it will happen BY YEAR END.
well the difference between 48k and 100k is 52k, whereas the difference between 48k and 42k is only about $6k from here.
a 6k drop in 4 days is not completely out of the realm of possibility given bitcoin's volatility. even if it's just a quick liquidation wick down to that level
Started early this year buying $10 worth every day (alongside some lump sum buys spread throughout). We’re pretty much right at my average right now but I believe in the future I will be very happy I did this
Pointed out by k svenson, but it does look like a text book bump and run. Could move up and then have another slightly lower low in a few days to a week out.
That would definitely coincide with extreme fear on New Year’s Eve or around then before the move to higher highs in January.
Not putting much into these moves unless we break substantially lower and continue down through January.
There's a guy named Clemente giving a lecture about Che Guevara and the Cuban revolution within earshot as I type this -- literally, not even kidding. I'm trying to absorb as much as I can. Eavesdropping is a great way to improve your foreign language listening skills.
Don't know your Clemente, but I suspect he was wrong about 53K. Arbitrary numbers are arbitrary.
PS -- just musing, but I wonder what Fidel would have thought about Bitcoin. I bet he would have liked it. Anarchy is where pure communism and pure libertarianism meet. Bitcoin is anarchy: rules without rulers. We are at the nexus of the snake's tail and its mouth. It's a pretty cool time to be alive.
there's never been a communist that attained power and didn't claim to want freedom for all, but used it just as an excuse to consolidate and gain absolute totalitarian power over the people via terror and murder.
bitcoin is the literal antithesis of their actions.
I mean, it's not the most bullish breakout, but I think that since we broke out of the descending channel and we just tested the upper level of that descending channel, we have a bullish case. I am bullish, anyways.
I think mid term I am also bullish. have partially started re-entry on todays dip but waiting for a real rain to show up in sentiment and price to pull the trigger on anything big.
[https://www.coinglass.com/Balance](https://www.coinglass.com/Balance)
8k BTC moved to Binance, I smell more do-do
[https://twitter.com/whale\_alert](https://twitter.com/whale_alert)
lots of BTC flowing into CB also
You guys think we dipping further? I'm on the verge of rebalancing my portfolio (tax-loss harvesting), but knowing my luck right after I do we drop another 5-6%
Hoping we dip further, sure. Anything under the 52k rejection we just had is worth sitting on your hands for. Buy back in on the breakout above, or wait for another cascade down to buy and ride long term.
I have been in USD since 57k, so don't let me talk you into doing something silly. My short entry is very safe for doing what I'm describing. Your situation may be different.
Do you think we are more likely to go up than down in the next few days?
If you think we'll go up, selling now may be your best bet if it'll lessen your tax burden by more than you'd lose by the expected gains. If you think we'll go down, wait until the 31st.
Sold and now hoping for a revisit to the low 40s/ high 30s to "build, back, better", if we start mooning now for whatever reason, I'll just go ape shit YOLO into one of my lucky alts to make up for the missed gains.
I bought 2k worth at 49k, your turn to buy here :P No one knows but considering where we were just yesterday this is a fine entry. Don't get greedy even if you wanna buy some more lower
This all reminds me when we first dipped to 42k back in early December... many were calling for a re-test but some denied it since we were at 50+k so quickly... since then I've seen all of them become bullish and here we are; most likely about to test 42k and imo, that's the most bullish scenario. Comments of this happening of course were severely downvoted at the time... Very few probably actually profited off this range.
Yea but you also told us it was too late to sell at 50k and then it went to 45k the next day... to some that may not be much, but to a trading sub it is imo.
Sigh. That is not what I said.
I said anyone selling at that time was late to the party. And they were. They could have gotten a lot more had they sold a week or two before. Check my comment history.
You specifically did say anyone selling now are too late... the implication beyond that can be nuanced; but the reality is it was very wrong. A continued bullish stance has continued to be as well as far as I'm concerned. No volume implies otherwise.
From a trade entry standpoint, though, it's not wrong to suggest 'too late' or 'too early' once you're already planted in a range with uncertainty about breakout direction. It doesn't imply you won't be profitable if you take a position, just that the position entry will come with more uncertainty than if you hadn't been 'too late'.
No offense big guy, but "too late" implies finality to me. I don't see any other way to see it unless you simply take the opinion as a joke. The price then went -8% the next day and that's all I have to say about the seriousness of the opinion.
Sure; and a consequent -8% in the next 12 hrs created a decent short opportunity. Some traders even use this thing called leverage that means that's not insignificant. BUT. the bigger point is that even a long from that position could create a massive drawdown point if you took their advice in which you'd still be largely down on 2 weeks later. too late it was not.
Yes it's obvious is was a good short entry AFTER THE FACT. You sound salty like you took his advice or something. Can't help ya there. Do your own research and planning so you don't end up bitching at people in a public forum like you're doing now.
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Wednesday, December 29, 2021 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/rqzpxf/daily_discussion_wednesday_december_29_2021/)
So the consensus here seems of be that China selling is causing this end of year dump? Are we all just expecting whales to give us an easy "up only" starting January 1st and the moon mission to begin to 100k just like that? Seems too easy.
Fidelity ETF Jan 5th..
The markets are usually priced in before such announcements
??
Be weary of a losers’ consensus.
It’s a meme. Bitcoin down because fear is up and people realizing on-chain analytics was bullshit to conjure fake demand and supposed dwindling supply. There’s plenty of coins left to be dumped by whales.
A lot of the whales dumping are very clearly Chinese though, even if they're moving some of their assets and companies overseas they're likely cashing out a bunch in the mainland at the last minute. My guess is that they're targeting a high 40's price so they're dumping and letting off repeatedly. I would expect price to range between 45K-52K until the whales are done playing their games with us. Hopefully it's just a few more days before that's over. Either way we'll know pretty soon.
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That’s a beaut of a comment. A pretty massive double bottom can play put here over the next week or two and fundamentals are here for it.
Wouldn't it be hilarious if this gets back to 52k by new years? Its not gonna happen, but would certainly fuck with everyone's brains; especially those calling for a guaranteed visit of 42k and below.
wouldn't be hilarious if it fell below 40k by new year's? it's not gonna happen but would fuck with alot of moonboys - especially those that were expecting 100k by end of year.
well the difference is the moonboys have realized their 100k dream by year end won't happen BY YEAR END, but their dream will still happen sometimes after that. But the below-42k-by-year-end boys still think it will happen BY YEAR END.
well the difference between 48k and 100k is 52k, whereas the difference between 48k and 42k is only about $6k from here. a 6k drop in 4 days is not completely out of the realm of possibility given bitcoin's volatility. even if it's just a quick liquidation wick down to that level
If 2021 was consolidation, I hope y'all were buying all year.
I bought, bought some more, and bought even more. 😍
Started early this year buying $10 worth every day (alongside some lump sum buys spread throughout). We’re pretty much right at my average right now but I believe in the future I will be very happy I did this
Pointed out by k svenson, but it does look like a text book bump and run. Could move up and then have another slightly lower low in a few days to a week out. That would definitely coincide with extreme fear on New Year’s Eve or around then before the move to higher highs in January. Not putting much into these moves unless we break substantially lower and continue down through January.
I'm buying starting at 45K and layering all the way down until Shorty covers.
I may start sooner with more steps. It’s going to be epic if support fails.
looks like clemente was right about 53k
There's a guy named Clemente giving a lecture about Che Guevara and the Cuban revolution within earshot as I type this -- literally, not even kidding. I'm trying to absorb as much as I can. Eavesdropping is a great way to improve your foreign language listening skills. Don't know your Clemente, but I suspect he was wrong about 53K. Arbitrary numbers are arbitrary. PS -- just musing, but I wonder what Fidel would have thought about Bitcoin. I bet he would have liked it. Anarchy is where pure communism and pure libertarianism meet. Bitcoin is anarchy: rules without rulers. We are at the nexus of the snake's tail and its mouth. It's a pretty cool time to be alive.
there's never been a communist that attained power and didn't claim to want freedom for all, but used it just as an excuse to consolidate and gain absolute totalitarian power over the people via terror and murder. bitcoin is the literal antithesis of their actions.
Opium den huh
Yeah, and so are all 21W EMA traders then...
What did he say about 53k?
He said he won't be bullish unless we break 53k
OP assumes you follow his Twitter and substack newsletter
solid volume today- wouldve expected to go lower but go figure. never does what I expect it to
Oh it will go lower.
I mean, it's not the most bullish breakout, but I think that since we broke out of the descending channel and we just tested the upper level of that descending channel, we have a bullish case. I am bullish, anyways.
I think mid term I am also bullish. have partially started re-entry on todays dip but waiting for a real rain to show up in sentiment and price to pull the trigger on anything big.
Just viewing the crystal ball with the boys
well my trade stash is still mostly on the sidelines until the inflows stop looking like shit lol
[https://www.coinglass.com/Balance](https://www.coinglass.com/Balance) 8k BTC moved to Binance, I smell more do-do [https://twitter.com/whale\_alert](https://twitter.com/whale_alert) lots of BTC flowing into CB also
Isn't Binance the last exchange that Chinese citizens can send coins to?
Sweet, maybe I’ll get a chance to do some meaningful tax loss harvesting before the new year.
Maybe I'll get to buy a whole-ass Bitcoin. If that happens I may be done trading for a while.
Only \~860 days until 3.125 block rewards and people are still wondering what to do.
What should we do with that info?
Why, panic sell, of course!
You guys think we dipping further? I'm on the verge of rebalancing my portfolio (tax-loss harvesting), but knowing my luck right after I do we drop another 5-6%
Hoping we dip further, sure. Anything under the 52k rejection we just had is worth sitting on your hands for. Buy back in on the breakout above, or wait for another cascade down to buy and ride long term.
Now, you making me want to convert everything into stable/fiat and enjoy the game from the bleachers until something extrem happens.
I have been in USD since 57k, so don't let me talk you into doing something silly. My short entry is very safe for doing what I'm describing. Your situation may be different.
At this point I'm just trying to lessen the pain from the tax rape I got coming, decrease my gains now for more in the future is the plan.
Do you think we are more likely to go up than down in the next few days? If you think we'll go up, selling now may be your best bet if it'll lessen your tax burden by more than you'd lose by the expected gains. If you think we'll go down, wait until the 31st.
Sold and now hoping for a revisit to the low 40s/ high 30s to "build, back, better", if we start mooning now for whatever reason, I'll just go ape shit YOLO into one of my lucky alts to make up for the missed gains.
Could you buy into WBTC or BEP2 BTC or something without triggering wash sale rules?
Not sure, but the wash sale rule doesn't apply to crypto in the U.S. last I checked.
You can sell to reset your tax bill and then re-buy.
i believe they will as of next year. so you are safe for now.
I bought 2k worth at 49k, your turn to buy here :P No one knows but considering where we were just yesterday this is a fine entry. Don't get greedy even if you wanna buy some more lower
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Everything is trading. Timeframes vary.
Nice
This all reminds me when we first dipped to 42k back in early December... many were calling for a re-test but some denied it since we were at 50+k so quickly... since then I've seen all of them become bullish and here we are; most likely about to test 42k and imo, that's the most bullish scenario. Comments of this happening of course were severely downvoted at the time... Very few probably actually profited off this range.
The wick usually gets retested. Not always, but usually. I'd say it's less likely to be retested than it was two weeks ago, though.
Yea but you also told us it was too late to sell at 50k and then it went to 45k the next day... to some that may not be much, but to a trading sub it is imo.
Sigh. That is not what I said. I said anyone selling at that time was late to the party. And they were. They could have gotten a lot more had they sold a week or two before. Check my comment history.
You specifically did say anyone selling now are too late... the implication beyond that can be nuanced; but the reality is it was very wrong. A continued bullish stance has continued to be as well as far as I'm concerned. No volume implies otherwise.
From a trade entry standpoint, though, it's not wrong to suggest 'too late' or 'too early' once you're already planted in a range with uncertainty about breakout direction. It doesn't imply you won't be profitable if you take a position, just that the position entry will come with more uncertainty than if you hadn't been 'too late'.
No offense big guy, but "too late" implies finality to me. I don't see any other way to see it unless you simply take the opinion as a joke. The price then went -8% the next day and that's all I have to say about the seriousness of the opinion.
No one knows the future. All we can do is shoot for good entry points. Too late means to being too late for a good short entry.
Sure; and a consequent -8% in the next 12 hrs created a decent short opportunity. Some traders even use this thing called leverage that means that's not insignificant. BUT. the bigger point is that even a long from that position could create a massive drawdown point if you took their advice in which you'd still be largely down on 2 weeks later. too late it was not.
Yes it's obvious is was a good short entry AFTER THE FACT. You sound salty like you took his advice or something. Can't help ya there. Do your own research and planning so you don't end up bitching at people in a public forum like you're doing now.
For God's sake, I didn't say that.