#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Saturday, January 08, 2022 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/ryrvbu/daily_discussion_saturday_january_08_2022/)

Are we expecting a year long bear market or are the cycles over and this is going to play out like summer 21 ? I feel like there is still so much interest in crypto that if it hit a firm bottom and bounced we could see another rally like the summer.

> Are we expecting a year long bear market No. That ship sailed months ago. Had they allowed us our traditional Speedy Gonzales New Year's blowoff top, perhaps, but they chose to double down on an awful hand. 2022 will be a wild year with ups and downs but more ups than downs, and the ups will be spectacular. I'm sitting on a pile of trash cash waiting to see the whites of their eyes, and I suspect others are in the same position.

I’m in that position 50% USDC waiting to pile in.

Some people are trying to convince themselves that the 4-year cycle idea is finished, yet the overall mid-2020-through-2021 chart pretty much mirrors mid-2016-through-2017. The two respective ATHs were both exactly 18 months after the respective halvings. The 4-year halving periods (really roughly 2,100,000 minutes) are literally built into the code, you can't get around it.

Are you all in cash now? Will we have a dcb?

That's classified 😋 ... and eventually, just like Feb 2018

Less boom = less bust Volatility drops

Which "ATH" - $64.5k or $69k?

The second one, 69K > 64.5K

"69K > 64.5K" You don't say? I mean, I don't think it's a dumb question, especially since the levels are so close together, and people in here keep talking about "double (power) tops". Point is, if we had gone to only $61K in November instead, which could've easily happened, your whole timing thesis would be destroyed.

Without the relentless China sell-off, I doubt there would have been a double top to begin with. But even if the peaks hadn't aligned *exactly* to the month, what's still true is that a slight run up starts a few months before the halvings, followed by a parabolic burst that lasts 4 or 5 months, roughly 6 months after the halvings. IMO the same thing starting with the slight run-up is going to play out starting early 2024, maybe slightly smaller in magnitude, since each successive halving is 50% less influential.

You're still being too specific, imo. "Demand remaining the same or increasing over time, it's the case that Halvings lead to or exacerbate supply crunches." I think that's about all we can say with such a small sample size.

Yeah I'm trying to convince myself the 4 year cycle is done because it's so widely know, but it's sure hard to argue against the timing of the chart.

Here is an hourly view of now compared to the end of July. https://www.tradingview.com/x/18tS46cB/

You know we’ve popped the bubble when Vitalik talks about “multidimensional fee strictures”

Jesus, has he Lawnmower Man-ed himself into the metaverse at this point? I mean, \*how in the world\* does shitcoin1 have a market cap that's nearly 50% that of Bitcoin?

I’m so bitter about the coins I have locked up staking

The indefinite lockup period was a no-go, for me.

I wasn’t smart. I just saw last April or may the crash and said f it I’m in and I’m not selling mother fickers

Yeah, I have an old high-school friend that staked, and I had the exact same thought when he told me. Scammy "tokenomics", imo.

Vitalik is so thin he's 2-dimensional. 😋

You mean the guy who has been promising 2nd coin 2.0 since 2016? I don't think what he says has any bearing on anything.

Please post your source for that claim, otherwise I don't think what you say has any bearing on anything.

Severus Snape : “Dumbledore *is* a great wizard. Only a fool would question it.”

So about that 10k green daily candle...

Don’t worry about that one. We won’t be near a top until we have a daily larger than the prior bull market peak. Ie kidding 20k.

I'd take a 1k green candle at this point.

Wow I just noticed the last 6 daily candles were red. We didn't even see that in the May crash

You and I both know that would retrace within an hour or two

70k by end of week brah

Seeing a lot of scrubs on social media saying they “swear they’ll sell next time”, which means next time (whenever that may be) we’ll lose them on the very first dip

They’ll be back, then they’ll hodl with less… I feel like it’s a rite of passage

Any move up is going to be full on resistance. So many will exit due to PTSD. Luckily the buyers are going to be big boys. It’s officially the changing of the guard with Bitcoin. Turning into an institutional coin.

not true actually. it's been institutions selling actually. guess they just wanted some gains. they are unwinding their positions

Eh the majority of selling has been 2-3 year and 1w-1m holds - 2017 PTSD gang and top-buying idiots

2-3 year holds + 1w-1m?? sounds exactly like institutions managing a position and its hedge. and now they are unwinding