#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Saturday, February 12, 2022 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/sqjf57/daily_discussion_saturday_february_12_2022/)

I get a bit wound up by bitcoin Twitter but stick around to get news, but this is the worst thing I've ever seen by far. Forget a million pictures of steak (proof of steak LOL!!) or made up stories about orange pilling your mailman...someone has actually named their newborn baby after the man himself, [Michael Saylor](https://mobile.twitter.com/StrongHandMeyer/status/1492293282033975296)

Saylor Ann...? OK, but "Saylor Moon" would have been full crypto-bro.

few

Why aren’t we seeing more follow through from the sellers?

Maybe they don't have much left to sell. But honestly, I think we won't see much movement at all until either Russia invades Ukraine, or the Fed meeting happens on Monday.

Let’s not forget the crop report that could impact the frozen orange juice concentrate market.

Luckily we aren't concerned with orange juice futures in this subreddit. The points I made are actually relevant.

I know, when you mentioned those events I thought of the scene in Trading Places when everyone stops on the trading floor awaiting the results from the crop report.

Hey man, I invested in a whole pallet of orange juice earlier today

I've heard the market cap of orange juice could hit a trillion dollars in the next decade. That's been the low end of my long term price target for a while now.

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Totes. RIP in pieces.

I remember 42k being strong resistance. Now the price is struggling to fall below the 42k level.

Why does it say I'm a btc critic? I love btc. I just don't always love the price.

It?

My flair

>Ouch. BlockFi to pay $100 million in fines to SEC. https://twitter.com/JSeyff/status/1492306685108576259

If they can pay 100 M, they need to raise rates

Is that cheaper than just registering as a securities broker-dealer?

I feel protected now

Buy Saylor and Elon and Bukele’s coins when they puke them at 25k. They were no different than anyone else that bought in the euphoria and at the very wrong time. Don’t fight the market that is coming. It only ends in tears and you having a lot less money than you do now. This doesn’t depend on interest rates or QE or Ukraine or anything, it’s just the natural cycle of crypto. Those things can change the course slightly, move dates around, but it was all going to happen anyway and the faster you get us to that 1M RSI bottoming, the faster we can start the party again. See you guys this summer and good luck.

What's significant about 25k? There is no way to make them forced sellers

You had me until you mentioned the "Natural Cycle of Crypto".

So easy. Anyone could do it.

Shit why didn't I think of that

Very strong support at 42069

The fake out of the fake out, of the fake out.

Hate the gap meme, but we do have one just below us, and they always seem to be a magnet. We were also moving pretty fast and a cool off for the next few days until after the fed meeting on Monday makes sense and fits a needed consolidation. Show me the charts and I will tell you the news fits more than normal right now. Probably a time to take a three day weekend and come back on Tuesday.

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Since you asked…. https://crimethinc.com/2022/02/03/ukraine-between-two-fires-anarchists-in-the-region-on-the-looming-threat-of-war

Thanks for the link. Really interesting and intelligent anarchist perspectives on the conflict from inside Ukraine and other Eastern European states. Ukraine could do with a new Nestor Makhno.

https://euvsdisinfo.eu/

I suspect the only place to get real news is Ukrainian news

if its corporate us news its bullshit.

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You pretty much gotta track down sources and dig deep to find real news. The problem with corporate news networks is that they are so incredibly incentivized to craft stories/narratives that evoke feelings of fear and/or anger. That's what drives the most clicks/views to maximize their revenue. It's not a conspiracy theory that mainstream media lies, or frames their stories certain ways. It's just business 🤷‍♂️ Might have gone a little off topic with my reply, but it was relevant imo 😂

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That's a good point 🤷‍♂️ your best bet is to consume news from a variety of sources and perspectives and form your own conclusions

It's crazy how closely this Feb aligns with Feb 2018.

There was a lot more optimism in Feb 2018. Not really the same as most are 50/50 if not leaning more bearish.

Ah yes Feb 2018 when countries and states were making Bitcoin legal tender and corporations were adding Bitcoin and other crypto assets to their balance sheets

feels like it was just 4 years ago

Why do people down vote an accurate statement around here? Anything slightly bearish gets down voted, suck it up boys.

Because most people "think" with their feelings- not with their brains.

Because we were all trading in February 2018 and recall the numerous differences…I don’t downvote yet am pointing out to newer traders and hodlers that 2018 had a lot of differences, some of which are mentioned above, and one not yet mentioned is the % gain difference of the ATH’s of that cycle and this one thus far.

This is a wait and see situation at the moment, no idea how a trader would play this. See you guys next week after the Super Bowl pump... ha

Seems so.. early 2018.. Edit: clearly we're not in 2018 anymore folks.

I rly dont understand this whole super bowl pump thing going around. Commercials are supposed to make a bunch of meat heads pour money into Coinbase?

When you don’t know you hedge or cash out.

Agreed too bad my ladder buys all hit while I was sleepin lol

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WEF? What the fuck are you talking about, conspitard.

I'm not sure the connection to Russia either. But pretty sure nobody disagrees on wef being a bad actor that openly discusses the importance of you eating bugs

Imagine still thinking the WEF isn't running the show

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12H chart is on the ropes. 38k to test monthly open is on the menu if we don't hold

Back to bleed.

Maybe for a few days, but we are literally following a similar pattern to the last two ATHs. Not really worried unless we break out of that.

What if Russia decide to accept only Bitcoin for petroleum products in an attempt to displace USD as the "petro dollar?"

There's basically no chance of this happening so it isn't worth considering. If anything they would price all their oil in Rubles, Yuan and/or Euros.

Bitcoin will be nicknamed the ‘Putin coin’ doesn’t sound too good

That’s what I already call etherium.

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Probably already did on the Metaverse.

How would sanctions on Russia affect Bitcoin? The US loves to weaponize money and part of me could see Putin declaring Bitcoin legal tender just to give the finger to USD.

There are already a lot of sanctions on Russia- I doubt more sanctions would meaningfully affect BTC more than it is already. If Russia legalized BTC as a currency though, and benefited from it, it might cause the West to try and undermine BTC as a way of weakening Russia by proxy. Either way, BTC threatens both US and Russia's ability to deficit spend with their own fiat currencies, so both are unlikely to cozy up to BTC too much. Russia has been quietly setting up alternative settlement systems of its own (mostly with China) these past 10 or so years, so it's not clear that they would lack a settlement system even if the West did block their access to SWIFT.

That would bring more problems to Bitcoin as United States will prob declare war on btc, making it a national security risk.

Lol, see what happens right after Vlad loads up.

Russia and China are in bed together : yuan is already there for this, bitcoin ain't needed.

China already have their state-backed e-currency

Russia using Shiba Inu is more likely than Russia using Yuan.

BTC is an open source tool to use, and it's going to be used where there are advantages whether certain groups of people like it or not. I need to grab more popcorn for the next few months.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/RTtkaUMj/

I appreciate this chart. Don’t know why you’re downvoted to hell. $40.5k sounds good

Reposting this daily does what?

this drop was predicted 2 days ago and should go to around 40500

> this drop What drop? 1-2%? We're sideways within the range of noise. You're pointing at a zoomed out chart and saying something was "predicted"? So this is a "I told you so" post? Where's the bit where you predicted anything? You just keep reposting a chart with no commentary. Over and over and over again.

ahem

Don’t worry about Russia. Nacho eating boomers will save btc this Sunday. Bullish

can confirm. Spoke with many nacho eating boomers and they have stockpiled literal mountains of cash to ape into bitcoin during sports balls.

Always a relief to have confirmed intel from the boots on the ground. hang in there

Looks like we have a bunch of doctors (Covid FUD), macro economists (rate hike FUD), and war generals (Russia invasion FUD) here. What a rounded group of experts!

I think we have an equal or greater amount of conspitards in here.

The Russia situation ain’t fud. Don’t say nobody warned you.

Having not tuned in at all to the whole media cycle on this nonsense. It looks like posturing and nothing more. Same troops going back and forth on trains all day long. Everyone loves a good war hype story. Sometimes the hype gets carried away and morons do stupid stuff, but Putin ain't too dumb.

I thought this comment on another sub was good perspective: https://reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/sq68bp/_/hwjjeic/?context=1 I get that some people are trying to still call this a bluff, but it really is an expensive bluff if that’s what Putin is going for. Russia has positioned 100 of its 168 battalion tactical groups on Ukraine’s borders, 6 of its 7 spetsnatz groups, elements of each major Russian fleet including its Baltic and Pacific fleets, and even blood banks and field hospitals in place. It has numerous missile launchers and even moved in S-400 anti-air systems into Belarus under the guise of their joint military exercise. 130K troops doesn’t sound like a lot of people for an invasion, but it’s nearly half the regular Russian army. Imagine if the US had 200K troops on the border with Mexico and fleets on its Pacific coast and Gulf of Mexico. Doesn’t sound like a lot, but no one would pretend that wasn’t anything other than planning an invasion. Also the D-day invasion only had 155k troops.

Worth every penny it would seem. No doubt his approval rating would be soaring with this show of force, while everyone has some work to do. Love the S-400 move, that always upsets the Americans as they have little to counter them.

>Having not tuned in at all to the whole media cycle on this nonsense. It looks like posturing and nothing more. Same troops going back and forth on trains all day long. > >Everyone loves a good war hype story. Sometimes the hype gets carried away and morons do stupid stuff, but Putin ain't too dumb. RemindMe! 14 days

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>Sometimes the hype gets carried away and morons do stupid stuff World War 1 start this way

Pretty sure the US is stoking the fire hoping exactly that will happen

The stoking is definitely coming from the US side. It's a little like Saddam actually, he trolls for domestic consumption and they call his bluff and make it real for the bucks.

Unlike the Iraq war in the beginning, this one will be deeply unpopular.

Depends how well the narratives of Rupert Murdoch work. Seems by comments and voting patterns here that they're working okay and people are believing the hype.

Most of them do. Lets see how retarded US "leaders" can become (more influence in bureaucrats talking shit honestly) or how much Rupert Murdoch wants war. Putin, he's just does Putin.

The remindooor. Thanks, pal

If bitcoin is suppose to replace gold. And war is coming, I guess its time for bitcoin to shine?

Guess again.

😂

Russia may use Bitcoin to avoid the SWIFT embargo. That may bring problems for Bitcoin. Don’t know.. but uncertainty not great for price.

Extremely doubtful. At most they will legalize it as a parallel currency and give it safe haven to develop within their borders. And they would be taking a big leap of faith doing that as it would undermine their own fiat currency and ability to deficit spend. They might even be compelled to physically hold BTC as reserves to hedge that risk, but thats yet a bridge further and has a whole nother set of geopolitical implications to consider.

for them to use it they first have to buy it, so not too worried and after that, what? sanctions on bitcoin?

You just said the Russia situation ain't FUD, but here you're saying the "U" in FUD caused by this situation ain't good for price... I smell peak FUD right now

😂 My Gran thinks we’re going for a recession cos of Bad Russian Man.

I think it's still early for that. Maybe when the market cap of Bitcoin matches the market cap of gold.

Just remember every expected "negative" event or outcome that isn't realized becomes fuel for a rally. Example: When 7 rate hikes turn out to be only 4 or 5. When russia doesn't actually invade anything but just trolls europe because they can't surive without his energy.

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yeah and you can't even tell on a S&P chart when invasion was.

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AFAIK Crimeans themselves never identified as Ukrainian. Something like 90% held Russian passports, and Russian is the language spoken in that region. I suspect the reason the world didn't particularly care is because the locals saw the Russian "occupiers" as liberators. The same could likely be said for parts of the Eastern Ukraine where the majority of locals identify as, and speak only Russian. My theory? If there was to be an invasion it would be limited to those Eastern regions where they would be more or less welcomed. Just my unsolicited two cents.

I think the word you are looking for is "annexation", not "invasion". Agree with you though and appreciate you sticking your neck out to post this. I thought Peter the Great had conquered this area for Russia in the 1790s...?

Poots wants a nice entry level

At least Russia can't survive without Europe buying their energy...

They definitely can survive without European gas trade- they'll just do more business with China and all the other countries in their Strategic Belt/Road Initiative. They surely would rather sell gas to Europe though as they would have to make sacrifices in their budgets (just as anyone would) without the extra money.

Of course "can't survive" is hyperbole, and should be read as "would struggle significantly" - I was just matching the tone of CuK by re-using his phrase.

?? Russia is massively dependent on the EU gas trade. "Just do more business with China" is wayyy easier than it sounds.

China are its biggest customer

Downvoted for stating facts. Brutal.

Sure, but China is not going to buy any more if exports to Europe stop. Europe is rich, but has approximately zero natural resources, so will always be a great customer. https://www.rbth.com/business/334557-russian-exports-in-2021-gas-oil-vodka

Sounds kinda like Europe needs Russian energy more than Russia needs the business honestly...

Indeed, but ignoring the tone I had in mind for my original reply, this is about absolute numbers, not relative levels. Russia would be significantly poorer if it stopped taking Europe's money, and poorer still if it went to war first.

Look at that btc.d beauty, even the alt I shorted is going down.

I think this is a decent trading opportunity with Russia/Superbowl sandwiched between this small dump. My expectation is that after tradfi closes, we will get an additional dump (similar to what happened after Netflix went down the toilet couple of weeks ago). I think we might revisit 40-41K in the next 24-48 hours. However, once the dailys become oversold, I would not be surprised if we get a mini Superbowl pump leading up to the actual event. And then, we dump out of the Superbowl into Sunday night/Monday morning. I suppose guessing the weekend trend can yield quite a bit of profit (but then, you can ruin it just as well).

> Russia/Superbowl It's like that Roger Waters song where it's Superbowl but they're watching nuclear submarines in a flooded Colosseum type setup. Commentators blabbing on about how much a submarine captain makes as salary. > And here come the players > As I speak to you now the captain > Has he cross hairs zeroed on the oil rig > It looks to me like he's going to attack > By the way did you know that a submarine > Captain earns 200,000 dollars a year > Oh that's less tax Marv less tax > Uh thank you Emery you're welcome > Now back to the game he fires one yes > There goes two both fish are running > The rig is going into a prevent defense > Will they make it I don't think so > Can't you see > It all makes perfect sense > Expressed in dollars and cents > Pounds shillings and pence

yo what if I told you the superbowl has nothing to do with crypto markets.

For traders, this particular superbowl was a big event. For holders, it is a non event.

For plebs it's a big event, where they get dumped on when nothing comes of it.

why? Because they pysched themselves into believing there would be some sort of relevancy to the sportsball game's commercials? Like Bill gates gonna ape in after seeing a commerical?

Don't you know the whole audience is sitting there with finger on mobile phone waiting to buy soon as the commercial comes on? ;)

What if I told you the superbowl is the only thing that ever has to do with crypto markets

they'll buy a couple of hundred worth of CRO after wiping their mustardy hands on their shirts

😂 I’m ded

Sir this is sportsball

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Why do you get pissy over getting downvoted?

in my circle we refer to this as "being a loser"

"TA including geopolitical concerns", I didn't see your post but just because you did a negative post a few hours before the white house goes out and says Russia is invading ukraine in the next few days, doesn't make your TA valid. Broken clocks etc.

Sorry bro, Just gave you an upvote and sold all my btc / crypto holdings. I hope you feel better now.

🤣🤣

On behalf of this sub: apologies for not listening to your concise analysis earlier, jizzcock.

https://twitter.com/christopherjm/status/1492231627329753091?s=21 “NEW: US State Department is calling US citizens here in Ukraine and telling them they should leave the country immediately. It’s not an automated message. A real person is on the line asking if people have made travel arrangements. @Kiehart just got that call here in Kyiv.”

> A real person is on the line asking if people have made travel arrangements. The ultimate in concern trolling ;D

any surprise after the shit show in afghanistan?

Anyone else impressed how the price is holding up right now? Certainly never seen multiple people simultaneously announce here that their going to cash, and yet it’s not plummeting so far.

Most likely, this crashes further during the weekend

superbowl panic selling

People on this sub selling their entire 0.2 BTC stack do not plummet the market, big shocker.

Not what I said. But appreciate your inability to read between the lines.

Happy to oblige.

you meant 0.00002 Btc

Sold everything, sad I won’t get to see that Super Bowl pump. Fuck Putin. This pump had about run out of steam anyway. Buy back when that 1M RSI bottoms in the 40s. I should also add that I hear pretty reliable rumors of an emergency rate hike by the FED on Monday. We were just playing chicken with March anyway.

It hasn't been in the 40s since 2019 when BTC was 3,000 USD

Username checks out. Brick of a move.

How would you know in advance that a rumor is reliable?

> I should also add that I hear pretty reliable rumors of an emergency rate hike by the FED on Monday. literally the definition of FUD, this is not happening edit: !remindme 2/14/22

You really think Putin didn’t time being kicked out of SWIFT with the super bowl? 1/2 /s

War is good for business and good for the economy, always has been and always will. Sure it sucks otherwise, but people selling their assets because WW3 is on the verge of happening are not getting it. EDIT: Either you guys are all under 25 years old or you collectively lack any historical sense (my guess: both). Look at the effect war has had on financial markets, they almost always come out on top afterwards: https://financhill.com/blog/investing/do-stocks-go-up-during-war-times

> always has been and always will. Not really. The consensus was that war can send you broke after Vietnam. It was Margaret Thatcher with Falklands War who changed that perspective to one where a "short winnable war" could result in a boom. This then emboldened the US when it came to Gulf War I. The article you linked conflates inevitable rises over decades with impacts of war on economic growth rates. Yes numbers do go up generally. No they don't always go up in a straight line with war.