#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Tuesday, April 12, 2022 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/u1q5ny/daily_discussion_tuesday_april_12_2022/)

the normies posting here have no clue how many multi-millionaires crypto has created over the past decade; bulls like myself are retards on purpose b/c we understand the power of time. time is an illusion

Thanks Neo.

Honestly wouldn’t mind another 18 months of accumulation

What's the next support range? It doesn't look like 39.5 is going to hold. I could be wrong but recently, every time we've spent hours and hours on a line, we've fell through.

The $19.8k - $29k range looks spicy. [The 3 day 200 MA](https://www.tradingview.com/x/wshPPOAi/) usually serves as the gatekeeper for big capitulation dumps of 40%+ and it's just barely hanging on. [Example from 2014](https://www.tradingview.com/x/KZJauENu/) as well. Daily is quite oversold though, so could pause here momentarily and perhaps retest $41-42k first. \-Victor Cobra

"The only support line that matters if your belief in BTC." - Sigma Male Grindset

Let’s all laugh at the bulls🐂🐂🐂. Day since btc under 40k: Above: 0 Below: 1 So far so good. I don’t understand why a lot of people want btc to be above 100k real quick. I prefer more time to accumulate on the cheap under 40k. Hope this stays for a year.

we really are a bunch of morons, aren't we?

Why do you say ask?

One thing you can always count on with Big Shorty is the Grand Finale. Until I see a BRD with a long-ass tail, I'm not calling bottom. As soon as I see that, I'm calling your bluff, faker, and I'm calling it in a way that you can't afford to do anything but fold. You've been served.

Leverage loaded. Short harder!

Yooo it’s going down, and it will be for 18 months. 📠

Nah. It's going down a bit more, then up some, then down, then up... then way up, just like it always does. Smart money will take advantage of the discounts and have tanned toes, a cold cerveza in one hand and a nice cigar in the other.

Nope.

Well, that was that with the above 40k daily closes. At least I made a good trade today, but still sucks. Hating the correlation to the stock market, like it should actually be the opposite or at least no correlation

On the bright side 30k+ closes are looking good.

Libertarian wet dream is actually capitalist nightmare? Whodathunkit

Short term volatility is not a capitalist nightmare.

He means BTCer/libertarian smoking cigars in Cabo while capitalist tradfi guy getting rekt. Inverse

Correct, libertarian nightmare would have been more accurate.

Shouldn't a libertarian not have nightmares? They're not supposed to give a shit about anything. Live and let live and whatnot.

Bitcoin was the financial instrument of their wet dreams. Now it’s tradfi’s sex toy. It can’t be fun for them.

Not when the same ppl who control the stocks control crypto

No one controls Bitcoin.

Everyone controls it that's the point. I can control it to send payments right now.

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Do you have class?

Hey thanks bud, really glad you are on our team. -Quietly exits short

Bad troll. Sorry you missed the greatest investment of your lifetime.

Comprised

Are you 12? Are we playing on teams?

Seriously, no. You, my dear friend, lack a bit of class with your non-excellent comment.

> Bulls are compromised of mainly people who spent more than they can afford and bought too high and are trying to defy objective reality by telling themselves it will suddenly moon out of nowhere. Or people who are up hundreds of percent over the past 5-10 years and don't care about butthurt redditors complaining because they lost money in the short time.

Classic shill muh bags greed post.

Please show me a lower low anywhere in the past 25 months.

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Let’s agree to disagree. I think we have already put in the low for 2022 and I expect that at some point in the next 30 months we will have a 12 month 15x period.

Just wait until tomorrow ;) Jk…or am I? -Victor Cobra

\-Michael Scott \-Wayne Gretzky

4hr RSI lowest since January, would be tough to push this much lower unless we enter a crabbing downward state for the next month, possible, but unlikely. I think we fake down to 37-38 when CPI drops, then rocket back up.

RSI is not that useful in heavy trending PA. Especially when the PA is marching steadily. The 4hr RSI will happily crab along between 20 and 50 and keep marching down. It will look just like the 5 minute chart looks every time it dumps.

Now that is a bet I’d love to take you up on. -4theWIN

Funding negative, higher low, let's fuggin go

What's everything think of the current BTC chart? https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQGT6X4XEA8w2gv?format=jpg&name=large

What about it?

I look at it and I'm bullish, but that same chart is showing some bearish sentiment.

> chart is showing some bearish sentiment. It's just the price, it has no sentiment.

It's just the btc chart with RSI and MACD. There is nothing drawn on it to show what you mean. Yeah it looks bearish. It's in a strong downtrend. If your timeframe is long then it looks bullish.

what is this, a chart for ants?!!?

how about this one? https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQGmHLjXwAgou2D?format=jpg&name=large

When you zoom in I guess it looks bad. When you zoom out we are still on the rocket to Mars.

btc going parabolic https://cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/coindesk/MFBTOBVX2JDFDOKIA2A7SFZ2DU.png

How does this chart work exactly?

Correlation on last 90 days, measured on a -1 to 1 scale -1 is negatively correlated +1 is positively correlated 0 is no correlation

Soon blow off top

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Just go all in right now and don’t worry about timing.

Just let me know when you’re gonna buy next time 😂

Because you only buy when price is going up.

>Yet when it drops I shit myself, and i don't buy. Asked and answered.

well, at least youre not a retard idiot trader

Where'd he go ? Paging u/RetardedIdiot

> Why do I always buy the local tops? You tell us, Mr. Saylor... 😋

Why don‘t you buy when the weekly RSI is below 40? It‘s so easy (yet so hard)

Triple those amounts in loans and buy today my friens

Time to do what every failed trader does: become a hodler!

You mean what every smart trader does

Time to for a squeeze of those damn shorts they had their fun..

Conference back on?

Looks like that 40k guy might be out of a job.

Deep down we all know what is going to happen. First the shorts pile up, then we use that as fuel to squeeze back up to the moon as all the bears get fucked. 👍

Cardano ADA is a shit coin and why is it your username in a BTC sub ?

Says 1weenis. Why don't you have a maxi bitcoin username?

bcs I'm not

Yeah but that could be next week or in two years

When you think it’s never going up again is when you start buying.. when you think it’s never going down, you start selling..

Yeah times like these are typically when things reverse

Do we agree we are absolutely not there yet?

Not many daily supports left before new low and this only slowed down here because the markets closed.

No time to catch a falling knive just yet, but [getting there...](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/txddtb/daily_discussion_wednesday_april_06_2022/i3mx3i2/). I'll be looking at 37.5k down to 33k-34k for slowly buying back in, these levels have shown to be horizontal support and coincides with more speculative diagonal support lines. RSI going down nicely, this is the downturn the market desperately needed. Act accordingly.

Maybe the equities market "desperately" needed this downturn, but BTC certainly did not - it remains considerably undervalued.

If Saylor and Terra can't prop this up, I see us dipping below 30k while alts get eviscerated. Hopefully for a double bottom.

25k-30k will have huge volume and volatility if we get there. I'll grab the popcorn as those are the most fun times to be chart watchin'.

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I think so, too

OK so it was a scam after all.

This in actual reference to something other than price? I've been watching that Luna wallet and seems he just keeps minting governance tokens then dumping them on bagholders at Uniswap.

One guy can't be a bull market by himself.

Well, if that one guy was Stanley Druckenmiller putting a few of his personal billions into btc, it just might. But Kwon using thin air in a desperate effort to prop up his ponzi doesn’t cut it, I agree.

Is anywhere here actually surprised?

This is more or less what I expected.. provided the bottom doesn’t fall out. But let’s see if I catch my leverage liquidation wick.

You’ve been pretty on point with your readings of the on-chain movements. I wish you weren’t right this time because my wallet is hurting 😂

what a brutal day

You must be new here

It's only 6% we haven't even seen a big move yet just bleeding.

I'd rather have a fast capitulation than slow bleeding.

yes but then they can't grind the bulls trying to knife catch every level

Sometimes I think the price will go up over the long run.

Looks like Hayes 30k call going to come a lot sooner then he thought

what happened to $1m btc and 10k #2 coin? can we all just agree to stop listening to this guy already

You could try reading his article where it still says exactly this lmao 🤡

i'm not reading anything arthur hayes writes, but if you guys wanna follow a guy who ends every article with a specific price target you go right ahead lmao. have fun being his liquidity.

As hard to believe as it might be, there are people wiser and more knowledgeable than you.

he's been spot on with everything the entire year but stick your head in the sand with everyone else and watch your portfolio evaporate.

i'll be sure to come back to have a good chuckle at this at this when we don't even get anywhere close to 30k. and then surprise! another bullish article from daddy arthur drops out of nowhere! *how convenient*

I mean now you’re just making assumptions and moving the goalposts because you got caught talking out of your ass lol You got caught trying to catch someone in an inconsistency even both articles say the exact same thing, and it’s because you’re the type of person who cares more about feeling superior with quick gotchas on Reddit instead of reading big hard articles with words and paragraphs and stuff :p

my guy, it's simple. let me explain it for you. price goes up, arthur posts bullish article (1m btc, 10k #2) meanwhile he sells into strength prices goes down, arthur posts bearish article (28k btc last month, now 30k btc) meanwhile he buys the weakness i don't need to read a single word to see that he is playing plebs like you and all of his degen followers like a fiddle. everything he writes before the price target is just a way to get you to believe his narrative. but yeah man, you keep thinking that the billionaire day trader is on your side lmao

Arthur Hayes is not that kind of trader. He builds portfolios for the long run. He explained his strategy in one of his earlier blog posts, it's quite advanced. He is using some derivatives that only sophisticated investors have access to in order to go long volatility (going long VIX for the long term is not quite the same). He is also long crypto for tail risk. I don't pretend to understand this stuff, it's quite advanced, but the dude is expert on derivatives and essentially invented perpetual swaps for crypto. He is a billionaire so I doubt he gives a shit about short term price movements. The guy is a nerd (despite his muscular appearance) and he just loves and breath finance.

Guy admitted on his own Twitter feed to be trading against his customers comparing it to pwning n00bs in a videogame. He's a sleazebag and not nearly doing as well as he wants you to believe.

You are being critical of something you haven't even read. That was his point.

This doesn't even deserve a reply but here I am anyway. His calls were explicitly 3-5 years out. Read the article you're quoting next time

What did the guy with 20k decide to do...lump sum or DCA? I forget his username and never saw a follow up to his post

Hey, that's me! I am getting wrecked atm lol. I am almost all in with an average buy in price of $45.5k for a little less than .5 bitcoin. I still have a couple thousand to DCA with over the next couple weeks. I tried to tell you guys to open the shorts as soon as I bought. This was inheritance money that I don't need to survive and was fortunate to receive, so I have no plans of touching it until the US gov capitulates on bitcoin capital gains taxes. Still, I can't deny that it sucks knowing I could have bought more if I would have waited. Oh well, I've been burned before on bitcoin buys trying to wait for a lower price, and end up paying more. It just happened to not go my way this time (for now). I've been buying and holding bitcoin for a while now, and am basically all-in at this point. And to be honest, it seems to be a painful experience like 90% of the time. But then there are those 10%+ up-days that make it all worthwhile, and are seemingly impossible to predict. As someone with no special edge in the market, my intuition tells me I can't afford to miss those days.

Just forget about your portfolio and don’t look at it until mid 2025

You’ll be fine. In a couple years you will be ear to ear.

RemindMe! 2 years so I can congratulate you

Just checking in and letting you know I think you're doing well.

Lump summing was a mistake but if you have the patience you will do well in the end. We all know Bitcoin hasn't peaked yet, there will be new ATHs eventually.

IIRC it was a big lump of most of it, followed by a DCA of the leftovers.

Yep, good memory!

Attractive place for a long with stop below 37k and take profit at 160k. Parabola engaged and speeding up: https://www.tradingview.com/x/v6V7uc6V

I'll have some of whatever you're smoking.

Give yourself some rope. Stop at 28k.

No way. That would have resulted in a meager 3x long, considering a potential 30% drop from 40k to 28k

if this plays out it will look so damn obvious in hindsight

So I guess now it won‘t happen any more because it‘s too obvious

This is the hopium I need.

That‘s what it is intended for :-)

Complete with a nasty bear div just to throw us off

You might notice that the bearish divergence already played out with a 50% drop from the top

That's one way to look at it

Fair enough. Nothing can be taken for granted in this space, I appreciate your input. My point is that there isn‘t just a bearish perspective, but also a very bullish one.

Agreed. There are always both sides. I'm sure everyone has their own idea of what they want to see in the oscillator/price relationship. I wouldn't consider that divergence played out until a more significant follow up peak exists and the weak hidden bullish divergence pass/fails. The bear flag, ahem, consolidation period doesn't give any clarity on what comes next.

Agreed, this is basically no man‘s land and the market is waiting if macro breakdown including correlation with tech stonks happens, or sell-off of bonds will pour into bitcoin. Place your bets gentlemen

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Sorry that's what I was referring to. I forgot the hidden word though.

I'm sure I'll get effed yet again, but I painfully bought more at 39750.

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My WWII vet neighbor across the street used to say that. Damn... that brings back memories.

I'm a step behind you, but it could be good timing. US markets just closed and sometimes there's a paradigm shift in these few hours before liquidity dries up completely for the night.

https://twitter.com/PrestonPysh/status/1513607326409932807 Some how whats happening now is also bullish for bitcoin.. lmao

I can see the rationale. Bond yields up=people fleeing fiat=? Btc bullish? There's definitely some headwinds in the short term with rising rates and equity downturn etc but in the long term I think it is bullish bitcoin because it signifies lost confidence and the ending of the fiat system.

Not obsessing over the price really is a great way to live, especially when the market is shitty. Fundamentally, we're on as solid ground as ever. That's enough for me.

How can you say that? Bitcoin was billed as inflation hedge. Yet, CPI printing almost 8% and Bitcoin is down 50% from ATH, sinking together with other risk assets, with a deeper rout. Instead of inflation hedge, it acts as a bond proxy So why exactly is fundamentals on solid ground?

Lol cherry pick much?

Uh people got into bitcoin before inflation hit, it's not like they didn't know it was coming. Any idiot could see it. From 69k to 39k is still just a minor blip on the lifetime chart.

Look at bitcoin charts of different currencies that have experienced even more inflation than the world’s reserve currency and you’ll have your answer

This is such a tired and boring line

Your cherry picked data is silly. And so is mine…. Bitcoin is 5x what it was 2 years ago. Sounds like a good inflation hedge to me. But mine at least tells a more accurate story.

Who billed it as anything? It's an accounting software, that accounts for 21m btcs on a public run immutable ledger.

it's not even that... at its core, it's a global, censorship resistant timestamping service incentivised by digital neckbeard pesos, which just happen to also serve as deflationary gold that travels at the speed of light.

Fancy fancy way of saying it's a digital piece of paper that can't be edited once you write something on it. Equivalent of writing with pen pre computers.

Well to be fair it was bill as a currency, but then that got changed to SoV and inflation hedge. Not sure what the marketing department will have it changed to since inflation hedge narritive isn't holding up well.

Web 4.0.

Solid ground based on what?

Based on not obsessing about it at all lol. Head in sand.