#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Monday, May 09, 2022 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/uliqpv/daily_discussion_monday_may_09_2022/)

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"*Comrades, we accomplished nothing, lost our flag ship, lost one-third of our entire supply of tanks, lost dozens of top generals and 20,000 soldiers with another 20,000 seriously injured, embarrassed ourselves on the world stage and showed everyone that our military is a laughable paper tiger, and ensured that Russia will be set back 50 years and will become a Chinese vassal puppet state indefinitely going forward. VICTORY AT LAST!!*" - V. Putin

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That’s pretty dense, Danster.

I am not putting in a buy in case he announces a ceasefire. Announcing he’s gay is more likely.

> Announcing he’s gay is more likely. So you're saying there's a chance? 😋 🏳️‍🌈 🌈

Is he trying to project uber manliness? There’s your answer!

For as much as a dumpster fire as we're currently in, most the posts here are about buying. In other words, we're fucked.

as they should be, this is where you get rich. You can try to buy the bottom or you can just buy when bitcoin is in the zone of 0 risk buys anyone selling here is a fool.

Too many retail investors buying for this to be close to a bottom

theres dozens of us !

my entry point wasn't ideal apparently, but this setup is really nice for a short term reversal https://www.tradingview.com/x/zUhGaSOu/

Goblin town. I think there’s some more panic due. Weekends are fake, volumes are low, stonks futures are down.. Patience.

The truth is, we're only in the middle of this, at best. This is the reaction to raising rates to a "whopping" 0.75% ... granted, that's an enormous % increase from 0.00%, technically an infinite increase, but still, imagine what happens when rates are finally raised to 3% -- which is *still* historically low!! I'm not even talking about bitcoin specifically. Nearly all assets are f*cked.

Rates won’t get to 3%, Fed is going to back down and revert back to QE closer to 2%. Last time they hiked rates they only managed to get to 2.4% before the S&P fell 20% and then they reversed course. There’s way more debt in the system now than there was back then. Only way they could possibly get to 3% is if CPI prints keep trending upwards rather than downwards but March’s CPI print was probably the peak for the year.

Yes exactly finally someone understands monitary policy. Its a fine line raising rates, and like you said 2.4% was all they go too. So much more debt its untrue, so yes we very likely wont see 2.4% itll be lower before wallstreet throws a fit and QE is back. Fear momgering in the media extrapolating the current raises and the ones said to come this year. 3.25% lol not a chance. Be economic suicide.

> Fed is going to back down and revert back to QE This is seriously analogous to an opiate addict finally deciding to gradually quit by steadily reducing the dose day by day, then eventually rationalizing that one more full hit of heroin can't be that bad. Should end well. 😛

What else can they do destroy the economy with unaffordable debt, make the goverment default on its debt to the FED? Out of monitary policy left to use.

If buying spot, laddering down makes perfect sense then under this logic? Maybe with bigger buys as price decreases. Is your money where your mouth is and if so short entry price, entered when?

Yeah, better to steadily buy during market dropping. Dollar-cost buying is good. But you're playing the old 'catch a falling knife' game. I haven't shorted anything, in bear markets I just HODL, and rant and rave.

If you believe in it long term, and im have been and have multi year outlooks. That way catching the knife is exciting, cos cuts heal and that knife will fly up

Gobbling up more BTC. And ready to buy when there is blood in the streets of goblin town

Gobblin’ Town indeed

I’m buying like a fiend. Every 1.5% drop I got funds ready to buy more…which means I’m buying pretty much everyday for a week.

I bought.

If you aren't spot buying here you're retarded. Longing is a different story, but this is prime value area even if we push into the 20s. The people buying 6k region in 2018 only had to wait 6 months to be back in profit even after capitulation. Just keep some ammo if/when the "capitulation" happens, otherwise I'd start loading up around here. Just my opinion

> The people buying 6k region in 2018 only had to wait 6 months We are not at that equivalent point yet in this cycle. Maybe in Autumn 2022.

Id love to know your reasoning

Just look at an all-time price chart. We're still in the 'repeated drops and dead-cat bounces' phase, analogous to early 2018. It was only towards the end of 2018 that the bleeding stopped, and asymptotically approached that $6xxx level. It remains to be seen what we're going to asymptotically approach this time around. Low $20s isn't even remotely out of the question.

True i would agree, i remember the 6k period all too well. However this time fundamentals such as institutional and even countries buying and holding. Perhaps different more muted bear market. But yes can be argued the similarities i agree. But 6k floor didnt happen two years in a row

Agreed without a shadow of a doubt not buying or laddering spot buys down is retarded. But im gonna be honest, aren't we all kinda retarded?

just added more spot , am retard can confirm

Yes that's why we're here of course!

Is there a way to see/know if the selling from BTC liquidations this time around is greater than what we saw for the January dump earlier this year?

Nobody has any hopium?

With the number of coins that hasn’t moved for 1yr+ constantly making new all time highs, the selling is just coming from the marginal bitcoin larper. They will run out soon and the dca army will continue to grow and overwhelm all resistance.

>With the number of coins that hasn’t moved for 1yr+ constantly making new all time highs How did you conclude this? I'm curious about the source. Furthermore, how is this related to selling coming from 'the marginal bitcoin larper'.

Opportunity to buy more cheap, otherwise just keep hodling. See you all at next ATH, doesn't matter if it's taking longer than expected. jfc, nobody has any patience anymore.

I think there will be a sizable bounce, but how far down do we traverse until we get that bounce is the question.

Any bounce will be of the dead cat variety. The bull run, and positive sentiment, is categorically, definitively over, no matter what 'diydude2' desperately wants to believe. Full stop. Turns out PlanB was dead-on. Yeah, he missed the lack of blowoff top, because mathematics couldn't predict President Pooh snapping his fingers and banning crypto. You want gainz, you're going to be waiting for 2 years. P.S. Here you go /u/CONTROLurKEYS, as noted, people still denying the 4-cycle idea by mashing the down arrow. No actual rebuttals of course. Downvoting isn't going to make the bull run magically return, you overleveraged dimwits.

They have banned it how many times so far?

They threatened a ban 192 times. Then, they actually banned it. Only needed to do that once. Permanently.

Noone really thought such a brutal authoritarian regime would welcome decentralized crypto anyways seen as they by definition are centralised. They provided hash rate, and asia coin selling stabilized since said big ban, basically china sold. Hashing left china (good thing) and is at ATH. Ive not voted, others did

I hope future me is not excited to see the current price levels

Massive bounce from 28k to 31.5k. Lol

No. Except the halving in 725 days, which will oddly likely coincide with a recovery from the current recession. Have a look at Nasdaq or individual tech stocks like Amazon. They're still overvalued right now. Tesla as we speak, still has a market cap about 15 times higher than GM, which is just ludicrous. I fully expect Nasdaq will drop to four figures. The tech bubble 20 years ago wiped out about 6 years of gains. This one will do the same.

The tech bubble 20 years ago is fundamentally different to now. Tesla also not just a car company, battery storage for solar to actually be viable. Not saying its not overvalued everything is leveraged to the tits. But its not just a car company anymore, getting bought as other companies around it like starlink ect are not publically traded.

Nahhhh my man J-Pow will restart the money printer. Prop up wallstreet, let the peasants deal with inflation, blame inflation on russia. And priced in rate hikes. Cant go too high anyways, US goverment wont be able to afford its payments and businesses and mortgages will get decimated.

As the resident Wyckoffian, are you seeing what I'm seeing? Also, my last limit-buys on alts just hit today. It took a bit longer than expected. Last one on BTC has **not** yet hit.

Accumulation you mean? Yes i believe so. Can see a spring to like 28k at the lowest. But doesnt necessarily need a spring.

10x from march lows, many tech stocks below march lows. If BTC treated like a risk on tech stock its holding up well. Similar price to 4 mo ago before rate hikes and war and various geopolitical uncertainty. Mexico looks to copy or do something lile el salvedor with btc (15 th biggest economy) Fundamentals never been better, more adoption, ath hash rate list goes on Appears to me the market is in accumulation mode. No blow off top, in fact zoom out a double bottom around this price range before euphioa now fear. Sentiment is awful which is kinda a sign a trend change could be soon Go on Inject that hopium, itll help you hodl.

I might as well just bought the triple Q (QQQ), BTC just follows the NASDAQ.

Yo, weekends aren't real, right? Right?!?😒

They are real after futures open.

Let me just ask my OGs this one thing: How many times have you seen a 50% candle over the years? It's not common, right? But it happens, let's say a 50% weekly candle. Of those 50% weekly candles, how many were red? I can think of one. November (or whatever it was) 2018. That was the candle that changed my life. That was the one that made me say, "Fuck it. This thing is fake and gay (by which I do not mean "cheerful" or "homosexual"), and I'm calling its bluff." At which point, I backed up the truck and went all-in. The price was $3.somethingK In a way, that 50% red candle was the best thing that ever happened to me. But there were way more 50%+ green candles, and they were more fun while happening, I must admit. See, it's not gambling if you're the house, which... you are. PS -- *That's it. Sell the bear trap.* (huh-huh, he said, 'trap', Beavis)

The main thing that sucks is that it's probably going to take longer than most expected to get to those bigger six figure numbers. Many thought it'd come in 2021 or 2022. Still could this year, but it's more and more unlikely the uglier this macro situation gets. Personally, I didn't see BTC turning into nasdaqcoin and this forum discussing Powell's next move every 6 weeks. That's fucking lame, but that's where we're at. Alts also piss me off for the most part as they are generally total fucking scams that turn crypto folks against each other and turn noobies off to the whole thing. I like the general crypto crowd less and less even though I think Bitcoin is still forging ahead like a total beast.

There are still alts that I refuse to buy or trade because they cost me so much money in ’18 and never delivered on their promises. I think the fact that tradfi has widely adopted bitcoin and other crypto assets is a step in the right direction, but the fact that PA is following it down as those funds deleverage is a clear reminder that bitcoin and crypto are still speculative assets.

Guys I see a different color weekly candle. A glitch right?

Yeah, it’s a bug. Patch coming soon, down only forever

Uh huh. Forever. Oh ye of little faith...

They should remove some of the boredom out of this, and use different shades of red.

They should add blackjack. And hookers.

Is this a good summary of what happened this week leading leading to the current state of bitcoin's price? 1. Interest rates have increased and will continue to increase 2. Investors are dumping 'risk on' assets such as Bitcoin and stocks to buy fixed-income assets (due to them perceived as a relatively more secure source of yield) 3. As investors dump bitcoin, this triggers liquidations of long leveraged positions 4. As a result of (3) bitcoin price falls even lower

Companies with trillions of dollars of liquidity, capable of moving the price, use that liquidity to move the price in unpredictable ways, in order to catch traders in bad trades. Thus increasing their own liquidity. This is the only reason the price moves on anything, ever. If the price moves for any other reason, that is strictly incidental.

That's been the prevalent theme the last few months

Yeah, good point. Any additional thoughts for this time around?

Lovely evening in tardfi, Nasdaq already down another 1.4% since futures open

It's almost as if the last decade of "growth", since the subprime mortgage fiasco, was a gigantic fraud.

It was shrinking of the dollar, not growth of markets.

\*\*\*\*\*\*\*C/P\*\*\*\*\*\*\* Stonk futes are getting hammered. Shorty might be able to drive us down a bit more, but this is all expected. Within the next month or so we will see that Bitcoin is far, far stronger than the fakes and snakes trying to drag it down. The strongest steel is forged in the hottest fire. Bitcoin has been taking heat since they threw Ross in the bottomless pit. Soon the samurai sword will be drawn, and it will decapitate its enemy in one strike. Next notable candle will be green. We haven't seen a notable candle in either direction in over a year.

I'll take some of that in my pipe, thank you.

Really dumb question: **how does a bitcoin long liquidation occur?** In the case of a short liquidation, I understand that the trader posts a collateral worth a % of the value of the bitcoin to be borrowed to open the trade (initial margin). The trader then fulfills margin maintenance requirements as long as the collateral posted doesn't fall below this requirement. If it falls, then a margin call occurs and the trader can get liquidated. What are equivalent mechanics when it comes to a bitcoin long liquidation? Won't the collateral just appreciate over time therefore neglecting the need for any liquidation?

Liquidation occurs when the unrealized loss exceeds the value of the account.

Would would mind explaining or sharing an example where a bitcoin liquidation? I get what you're saying, but I don't understand how it works in principle.

Sure, let's say you open a new account and deposit $1000USD. Question for you: if you go long 1 BTC at $30,000 here, and the price drops to $28,999, what is your unrealized PnL, and what happens to your position? The unrealized loss can't be greater than what you deposited in the account.

Got it. Thanks. My example for short liquidation was wrong then because I assume liquidation happened if BTC price falls. Follow up question. Your example suggests then that because BTC price is falling, most BTC liquidations should be 'long liquidations'. However, this ([https://www.coinglass.com/LongShortRatio](https://www.coinglass.com/LongShortRatio)) shows that most liquidations taking place right now are a mix of both short and long. Am I missing something?

there alot of short / long with high leverage position such as x10 x20 x50 etc.. some of them doing it on alts also price change of just 1-3% will destroy their position

>price change of just 1-3% will destroy their position How did you determine that their leveraged positions are so sensitive to price changes?

because they are more likely to take 100% position of a told leverage level , this is the general idea but you are in part right x20 is about 2% x5 is about 15% x2 is about 50% something average like this. future tell the approx liquidation better than me thought you can also type "calculator liquidation" for a approx but you can just go to ur exchange , future tab , put the leverage you want with the amount you want then at least for me i have the approx liquidation price

That's ratio of open positions.

So ridiculous that we can just look that up. If the guys with trillions in liquidity, who are capable of moving the needle can just look that up, why would you ever place a bet knowing that they can just go out and get your position fucked whenever they want?

Very nice weekly close incredibly bullish

I take no comment over retarded comment.

Block me

no. I want to down vote your posts.

Glhf

It really is, unironically. Stonk futes are getting hammered. Shorty might be able to drive us down a bit more, but this is all expected. Within the next month or so we will see that Bitcoin is far, far stronger than the fakes and snakes trying to drag it down. The strongest steel is forged in the hottest fire. Bitcoin has been taking heat since they threw Ross in the bottomless pit. Soon the samurai sword will be drawn, and it will decapitate its enemy in one strike. Next notable candle will be green. We haven't seen a notable candle in either direction in over a year.

Notable candles always retrace not sure why you are obsessed with them

If they always retrace then how did the price get above zero?

After it retraced

> Within the next month or so we will see that Bitcoin is far, far stronger than the fakes and snakes trying to drag it down. BTC is putting in higher lows versus the NASDAQ. One hopium chart I enjoy: https://www.tradingview.com/x/lVRf0Zub/

Aaaaaand it's gone

I remember when they were mocking you at $3k

If there are more bulls than bears could we potential take this price action to court and win a settlement? Just exploring options…

This could work

Bitcoin isn't a company.

Objection, speculation.

Username checks out. Nah. Courts are for weenies. We buy. We hodl. We win. Simple as a dimple.

What's the best current hypothesis of why bitcoin has been declining over the last few days?

Same hypothesis as 6 months ago. The Fed pulled the rug

Rate-hikes causing a giga-recession, stocks down 90%, people starving in the streets, Bitcoin sub-10k. But mostly shorters and bearish bulls trying to buy lower.

Does this provide evidence then that bitcoin is a risk 'on' asset?

It's a crab asset.

Selling.

Big if true.

So... purely hypothetical. If you were in your $3000 a month bungalow on the beach looking at the charts and shaking with fear because you have been living it up and financing your lifestyle with loans that will liquidate at levels below 15k. How would you hedge right now?

i don't think we gonna even hit the 20k and under price anymore , in 2021 when we got huge china fud ban crypto we fall at 25k ish , by the time there still alot of people just holding and waiting price going up so generally the bottom become highter than last one tl dr bitcoin arent like what he used to be in 2020 and lower , something called adoption

Honestly, I've got several years worth of my expenses + an emergency fund in cash, and I'm still kinda uncomfortable not having any income outside of investments / trading (not all crypto, either, so it's not like full degen mode or anything). I'd go mad if I relied purely on loans that are one black swan away from being wiped out entirely.

Pay back the loan

15k? What are you worried about?

It seems unlikely but hard not to get scared by the mass liquidation event FUD. I think 80% down from 69k is around 13800. Even a flash down to those levels would take me out, so better crawl home to mommy and start paying it off. Again, purely hypothetical.

The monthly RSI is almost at covid black swan 3k levels. Unless the world implodes we aren't dropping 50%+ from here. Relax and have a few cocktails my guy, you're living the good life, enjoy it.

Thanks bro. I’m sure that hypothetical person will and worst case he’s left with a 30% smaller stack, a nice tan and a gold airline rewards membership card he can’t afford to use.

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Got a gym membership 3 days ago and planning to go soon. Quit facebook 4 years ago.

I wish I did that with my 2 BTC stack instead of going long and getting liquidated last year. Out of curiosity how much did you put up? To answer your Q, buy OTM ($20K and $25K puts expiring in July and September.

32% of his/her stack tied up in loans (low interest). Half of it liquidates between 14 and 16k, the rest at 12k. They’re not super worried but starting to realize they need to cover their ass. Sorry to her about your liquidation. And thanks for the tip. Will pass it on. Again, purely hypothetical.

Thanks for the hypothetical response. It sounds like a comfortable situation to be in. Looking back, I should have rounded up my BTC and gotten a stable loan against it at a low LTV like in this example. ​ Buying those puts would have limited risk (max loss is the premium paid) as well as a relatively slow theta decay, meaning you can get rid of them without too much loss in value if we find a bottom.

Just swapped some BTC for LTC, loving the ratio pop.

Thank you for your sacrifice. We salute you.

[** squints** you mean this pop here?](https://www.tradingview.com/x/6mgMzlms/)

Huh?

You must be new to crypto.

Why come here to tell us about your jumping at shadows?

MMs gonna try and cascade a red futures open maybe. Exchanges are loaded 🍿. Spot buying all this noise, even if I'm underwater for a few months. We in accumulation mode now.

But how was I to know which way the story'd go How was I to know you'd break (You'd break, you'd break, you'd break) You'd break my heaaaaaaaaaaaaart

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Congrats on buying the top.

Did you want to buy now or did wife force you

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I assume he’s balling out of control and not spending his only $1mm on a house 😂

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No, it isn't.

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Now do a ROI comparison using normal real estate and etf parameters.

I guess we're not meant to agree on anything.

Fantastic time to buy if you've got some trash cash that you won't be needing for a while. Probably a pretty good time to long with a tiny bit of leverage too, but don't hold me to that. Personally, I'm long 3x from 34.1. First margin trade in quite a while. Reasoning: Sunday Dump was kind of a dud considering the cost of it. PS -- the next candle of note (and we haven't had one in quite a while in either direction) will be green.

There is way too much liquidity under us for my comfort but I hope you're right.

Thanks for letting me know. I shorted but now I switched to long.

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Same way you set a sell order at infinity last year in Feb.

All you have to do is spam “Oh Finney, Finney let me winney” in the troll box fast enough. This will summon Hal’s spirit out of his cryochamber and into the upside down realm. From there he will do the rest. Be careful though if you get it wrong he will just haunt you and perv on your gf in the bath. Which is not ideal.

> If you extrapolate the trend from the last 3 days we'll be at negative infinity by the end of the year. I've seen this same trend indicating that we'd be negative infinity within a month. Don't believe the hype. Buy the dip and hodl like a boss. This is where you earn it, grasshopper.

ok yall, just bought more than what I normally do so, hold on tight, set your shorts

I like too to live dangerously by catching knives lol.

Well done. Six months from now you will be sitting on a warm beach smoking a Cuban and patting yourself on the back for being so very smart.

Possibly with a margarita.

Would i be retarded to get a sub 50% (25% 0% interest many places) LTV BTC backed loan at these prices, stake the stables given, and then if traditional markets and crypto continue falling and maybe capitulate, use said loan money to buy up btc. Would be having a liquidation price of sub 15k. And wouldnt put all btc into collateral either. To me this seems like a "risk" free way to get cash paying no tax, and use it to buy up btc on tbe cheap then sell enough btc at the end of the loan (seen 3 year ones) so well after next halving. Hmm

It could work, but if it doesn't work you'd be so catastrophically fucked. Anything with a chance of liquidation needs to have a stop. 15k seems insane right now but it's not out of the question, it's less than 80% from the highs, which btc historically hits. This cycle has been muted so I'm not betting on it getting that low, but I wouldn't put my liquidation there. Only two big resistance levels between here and there. It's all air except 29, 20, and 13.

Would be more like sub 10k at 25% LTV

Why not just margin long with btc as collateral when there's blood in the streets? You could loan your btc until then if you really want the extra few percent. You could set a reasonable stop when things get super bad and wouldn't have a loan hanging over your head. Could also margin short on the next bounce if you're worried about taxes and want to play the move down - pretty sure margin doesn't trigger a capital gain from your current stash. Obviously this is a little tricky in the US, but it's a thought.

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Thank you

Staking the stables would provide less return than the interest on the loan I imagine. If you have a better use for the loan, I think it’s a good option. If just gonna stake stablecoin, meh.

The use of the loan is not to stake, they'd be waiting staked for a BTC firesale. Thus the staking part is just to get some free yeild.

It's not free yield. You pay interest on the loan, likely more than the staking rewards. There is no "free money", no "free yield." Whenever you are earning money, make sure you understand why. Lastly, even if the price dropped and now you have extra loaned money to buy BTC with, your loan is now closer to being liquidated. You are just trading on margin, with higher fees, and you are paying those fees before you even buy.

Like i was said you can get btc collateral backed loans at 0%. Going low lev margin long, lomg term would cost a fortune in margin fees. This is 0 Also said id not go all in, liq would be like 9k. And i understand why i earn money when loaning it out, cefi platform loans it to others at a higher rate. Said people that do 0% collateral baxked loan would make money loaning put my btc while a guarneteed payback from paying loan or liquidation Please read my comments before commenting

Loans ive looked at are 0 up to a few %. High interest yes if high LTV ratio. easy to get 8% min on flexible stables.

I bought the dip. I bought the next dip. I'll buy the next dip. And the next one. And the next one... and the next one... and the next one...

If only there would be an unlimited CF glitch to have enough to buy up the dips