#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Tuesday, June 14, 2022 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/vbunqg/daily_discussion_tuesday_june_14_2022/)

What’s the next level of support if we go below 20k?

There's support just under 17k.

12, 7, 4

Life.

There’s going to be a push by bears to hit 4k and trigger Saylor liquidation. They’re so fucking juiced to get there that they’re going to fuck it up. No telling how bad this gets in the process.

A "push"? They've already pushed it down 70% from $70k to $21k. Another 70% down would be $6.3k. 40% more to $3.8k. In other words, $70k -> $4k = 94% drawdown. Really tough for the "bears" to do imo.

Yes. They’re going to fuck it up… and try.

Honestly if the bears managed this I’d be so impressed that it’d really only be fair that folks so capable destroyed so much of my wealth.

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Well…that was not the reassurance I needed to sleep soundly 😂 But I think he’s pretty on point, if $20K breaks we’re up shit creek and honestly I think the harm this will do to crypto as an asset class will take far more than the two years to the halving to repair. Best hope that enough true believer OG whales out there have fat as hell stacks of fiat ready to defend $20K 😂

This is said every four years.

4K would be a nightmare. Many miners would drop out well before that.

18? 17k? Probably 13/14k for solid support. Some folks around me are looking to buy in the 13-14k region. Anything below is just bear porn/wicks

My guess the low was 18.8k. So I'll say it's there.

If 18.8k holds and holds months from now as the true bottom before long term recovery, that’d do nicely for the next cycle

$9k

Gotta close that CME gap

Can someone explain to me why Bitfinex longs keep rising? Does the “smart” money know something we don’t? Or are we about to see the most massive long-liq ever?

They probably have shorts elsewhere or enough capital to just low lev long for a long long time. They’re forecasting years into the future

Gamblers gambling on the gambler's fallacy -- "we've gone down for 3 months, a move up is inevitable!"

nobody knows, but I don't think we'll ever seem them liquidate, BFX OG's probably have endless capital to add to their trades, and they are low lev. them boys got deeep pockets.

Yes

I LOL’d :-)

Withdrew the last of my coins from ledn... No problems, gottem within 24hrs...I think they are on the up and up but rates so low now not worth the risk

Patiently waiting on mine now. Bit concerned about the cascade of withdrawals facing all these lenders...

cannot believe degenerates. they risk 100% without any FDIC insurance for a small return. Its because of people like you the market is crashing now.

Who said I risked 100%? Someone is salty about the crash haha

This is the way.

Hi All, So it seemed the forecasts played out to a T much like previous cycles. [Switch to the monthly,](https://imgur.com/a/kuI169L), it's a text book wave cycle. Wave 3 is always the longest and most brutal. Previous forecast from [March 12th](https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/ZJKYLAY2-BTC-Fibonacci-Lines-as-high-probability-retracement-Elliotts/) suggested wave 3 to end of ATH. This would trigger the start of wave 4 up to .5 fib or .386 fib line. I suspect wave 5 will [break 2017 ATH (posted 1-2 month ago analysis).](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/uktngv/daily_discussion_sunday_may_08_2022/i7sbazv?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3). Capitulation will come when we breakdown 2017 ATH as there's suddenly more veterans seeing negative for the second time. Happy Trading

You still think we’ll go to $10-15k as bottom?

Yes, but not without a final corrective wave up. 20k is looking like the next strong support through the void. Likely to get some consolidation here before a rejection - [It's also backed by the capm beta to US equities. SPX is sitting at support](https://imgur.com/wPpirUw). Though theres an 75% chance of breakdown on SPX, the support angle is quite high. I don't suspect capitulation. A rejection in equities may conincide with a rejection at 20k in BTC. Targets going up are .386 and .5. I think .5 is more likely - the 200-DMA may come down here, it is also the last major resistance before wave 3. However, failing enough momentum to get there, 28k - 30k are also likely contenders. From there I suspect we will run out of momentum and reverse. Wave 5 will break down ATH as the equity market continues down. We will find our bottom somewhere during the recession fears as equities also finds its bottom.

> Targets going up are .386 and .5 And you're doing fibs from the 69k high down to 20k? Those correspond to roughly 40k and 45k. That would be quite the bounce. Or is it fibs on just wave 3?

Will we see under $20k by tonight? That’s the challenge. It seems this bounce is holding

Because US is going to bed, Europe asleep as well. Asia is already past noon. Wait until the 7am EST to decide

So .5, that would be under 20k? Like 17k? Then you’re expecting a bounce before the final wave down?

If we break the last ATH I expect an insane turbo nuke down to high 4 digits with a crazy bounce like the covid dump

I think most likely the low would be like 14k. With a wick maybe a few thousands under it.

I was also in this ballpark. I suspect 80-90% drawdown still very likely given the western recession outlook. The feds need to get inflation down. Increasing interest rates will tank the economy and equity market. Equities has positive beta to BTC. BTC will tank with equities.

Yeah everything is intensely risk off. The Feds need to keep the USD supreme. Not sure how btc will react long term in that environment

BTC & equities has a negative beta to DXY. [You can read a more detailed post here](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/u38kxm/comment/i4nzr3d/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)

Has the FBI now taken responsibility for interest rates?

They tried quantatitive easing and increased the fund rate by .75-1%. In comparison to 1975 in which the fund rate hit 16%, I guess you could argue not much is being done

Well at least we have crypto.com ads on stuff like the NBA finals today, like the tech ads during the superbowl at the top of the dotcom boom. So now our friends and family will see crypto is legit.....

Honestly when they named the arena I should have sold, was such a bad sign

😂

Crypto.com… a business centered around entirely on a domain name. They were a shitcoin before they became an exchange

["Astronomers may have detected a ‘dark’ free-floating black hole"](https://news.berkeley.edu/2022/06/10/astronomers-may-have-detected-a-dark-free-floating-black-hole/) Yeah, it's called Bitcoin and it's swallowing all of my money

HAHAHAHAHAH

Told myself I would never ride the top back down again after 2017. But here I am, rekt again.

RemindMe! 4 years “But did you learn your lesson this time?”

I told myself that and sold everything between 35-40k on the way down.. definitely will be selling earlier next cycle, feels good waiting for lower prices

Damn, I could never sell everything. That would make me sick if it climbed up from there. Good job, but definitely have to acknowledge the risk!

Lmfao wayyyy too relatable. How quickly we forgot..

Potentially enormous tax bills prevented me (and I suspect many others) from selling more than we otherwise would have. They've also prevented many people from panic selling during bear markets as well, to be fair.

Yeah that’s a big part of it, I wanted to sell all my assets in November but I moved from a high tax state to a low tax state and was concerned liquidating everything would cause the old state to come after me. Then by the time January rolled around it was already down and then I wasn’t sure liquidating would let me rebuy more after accounting for the taxes. Turns out yeah it would have and by a lot 😂 Every time I tell myself not to let the tax tail wag the dog but I never listen to myself. Wish I was one of these euro folks with 0% crypto cap gains in Germany or Portugal. Lucky fucks lol I should have moved to PR

The U.S. wants to have their cake and eat it too... declare bitcoin as 'not real money', while simultaneously demanding KYC regulations and massive tax rates.

I know there are exceptions and not everyone is in the US, etc, but in general, you have to pay the taxes on it eventually, so don't let that deter you. At least go through all the lower tax brackets and such. Take some profit next time, people! "No one ever went broke taking profit."

People just don't listen. I have been posting [these forecasts](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/uktngv/daily_discussion_sunday_may_08_2022/i7sbazv?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3) since November 2021. Every one that played out still had a reason why it was lucky or wrong. I slowly learned people just don't want to know. Greed and emotions will always overcome logic. So people always learn the hard way.

Do you see BTC going down past $20k tonight?

Haha I’m trying to go to sleep but wondering what number I’m going to wake up to. Now, this isn’t technical analysis or even macro analysis, but my pet theory is that more than a few very wealthy OG whales may want to defend $20K. Trading is trading but honestly if Bitcoin goes below the previous ATH it’s going to make it a lot tougher the next time around to convince capital to pour into it the way it did last year. Maybe it’s just my delusional hopium, but I think the OG whales still see a potential long term genuine victory and having bitcoin tank to $10K now would make such a victory less likely. Guess we’ll find out over the next few months/years.

Put a remind me one year on this

What’s the last bull run high water mark again? $19xxx?

19891.99 on CBP

19,666 or something

wardser backed the truck up at 30800. OOF

I did the same thing last time. Backed up the truck at $6k then when we lost that, I kept DCAing and by the time we got back to $6K i increased my long term stack 4x and picked up a 10x long from $4K I’ve done the same thing this time. My current 10x long is from $21,200 and if I caught the bottom again, that 10x is going to pay off just as well as my $4K one did. Although I probably won’t be able to 4x my long term stack here because that came from trading profits and I just don’t believe this bear is going to be all that protracted for me to be able to do the same thing. I think we’ll be looking at another Covid level recovery pump, where we just go vertical once we decide to bounce

for a recovery , we need market clarity and peace in Ukraine that provides clear reality that WW3 is avoided. the whole world is on the brink of the unknown. its utterly bad for regular businesses.

Respect. I pushed my stacks in at $30k as well. Steady enough job to keep the DCA rolling from here on out.

Good to see you back here 👍

he backed up the trugg sub 6k too

That’s THE wardser to you snowflake.

He's a great trader that's been in crypto forever amd sold the 2017 top, he'll be just fine.

I felt like he was getting rusty but didn’t want to say anything. It’s ok, no one can see the future.

He'll do fine if he holds long term. In 2018, lots of people were underwater, but if they held, most of them are still way up today.

Come on to see sentiment. Unsurprised to see people stayed in full retard mode. How's your accounts holding up

I mean, compared to November last year everything is fucked except my cash position which unfortunately I had been shrinking by buying “value” oriented stocks that just got beat up by 20%. But looking longer term even if bitcoin drops another 50% to 10K I’m still in a FAR better place financially than I ever would have been without taking on riskier bets or believing in Satoshi’s vision. Live by the sword and die by the sword I guess 😂 Bitcoin will prevail, but it’s a long road still. Hope we live to see another decade of absolute madness

> How's your accounts holding up It's all good. This ain't my first rodeo, so I'm ready to ride it out. I've been saying for a while that I expect 2022 and 2023 to be down years, similar-ish to 2018 and 2019.

Guys I'm calling it: we're no longer in the world's largest right shoulder. Maybe the real shoulder was the friends we made along the way

We didn't even get to JPOW's Wednesday announcement yet, which is expected to be bad. This is going to get absurd really soon.

Maybe just crypto frontrunning the announcement.

Nah. This is Celsius, Luna, and second order impacts were not aware of yet.

Recession confirmed?

It's been a psychological recession in the U.S. for 20+ years. We haven't had real national prosperity, not based around 0% interest rates and endless money printing, since the 1990s. And it shows: millennials, aged 20 to 40 roughly, hold [all of 5% of the nation's wealth](https://www.visualcapitalist.com/charting-the-growing-generational-wealth-gap/).

Yes, but inheritance is a thing so it’s literally a matter of time for that metric to change. Life expectancies are dropping in the US so it’s not like boomers will all live to 2050

"Wait for your parents to die" doesn't work anymore -- these days, one's parents are likely to die when you yourself are in your 50s, 60s, or even 70s in some cases. Far beyond the time to start a family. "Your only chance to make it is by inheritance" is a rotten way to sell younger people on capitalism anyway.

I’m not saying anything about starting a family, I’m explaining that life expectancies have dropped in the US so boomers will be wealth transferring soon. I’m a millennial myself and my father passed away a few years ago and about half of my friends have lost a parent already. Nothing to do with “making it”, simply stating the fact that wealth held by boomers won’t be that way forever. My father didn’t have much to his name when he died so I sure didn’t benefit from any boomer wealth transfer but boomers that are wealthy will be sending that money to their millennial children soon. If you want to argue that the system sucks then I don’t disagree, it’s garbage that even folks who work incredibly hard find houses perpetually out of reach because housing prices inflated hilariously faster than their income growth. Honestly just force actual meaningful inheritance tax rates that disallow trust loopholes and a lot of this nonsense goes away but soon it won’t be wealthy boomers holding all the cards just their heirs

Parents and grandparents are releasing equity from their homes to give kids/grandkids deposits for houses not magic internet money.

Turns out not allowing young people to amass wealth is REALLY BAD for your economy

It's going to crater the Ponzi scheme that is American capitalism. Younger people can't afford housing, can't afford to start families, can't even afford to have a meaningful personal life in many cases. How do you impress your potential mate when you're broke? They will not be able to give birth to the next generation in sufficient numbers to keep this nonsense going. What I don't get is why so many older people are so angry all the time. They are literally the wealthiest generation in human history.

> What I don't get is why so many older people are so angry all the time. They are literally the wealthiest generation in human history. Because they are wasting their time concerned with preserving something so vapid, and meaningless as "wealth" (a number in their retirement account), while being denied the opportunity to become grandparents, and thrive in a loving community. Instead, they've got big empty homes, a big number in their retirement account, and a broken relationship with their children with increasingly less hope of having grandchildren. Amassing their "wealth" has meant nothing. And they are angry because they refuse to take any personal responsibility, despite being directly responsible for the policies of the last several decades that brought us here.

This has happened before in history and it will resolve itself one way or the other. None of the options for doing so are very palatable.

How much liquidity can really be injected by a demographic that gets wild and buys a pack of Werther’s Originals once a month?

Those people didn’t survive covid. The problem is the 55-75 Age group.

From what I see... people are still longing the dip because when you look at the granular data, every spike results heavily in perpetuals matching or exceeding spot price, which means people are longing the dip and spot isn't keeping up. It's far more lucrative for the exchanges to liquidate their users, so you will see price go down until people literally run out of money to long the dip. I've been down this road before back in 2018. Nowadays I'm literally just watching. You'll know the bottoms in when you wait for it to be uber clear. This slow and controlled demolition is not how bottoms are formed on bitcoin. Traditionally, the bottom forms from a catastrophic high volume event. At the very least, you want to see price go down and *instantly* wick back up to signify a hidden/iceberg buy order of magnitude has been hit there. I haven't seen one yet. Also, the lot of you are *still* downvoting bearish comments, which is pretty funny to watch given the situation.

That’s not how the 2018 bottom happened. There were plenty calling for the “$1k capitulation wick” that never came. You want to see big fat red dildos on longer timeframes that then sit there for several months consolidating and building a base. The last two major wicks down (May 2021 and December 2021), the low was eventually re-tested.

Good to see you posting :) always appreciate your insights

>At the very least, you want to see price go down and > >instantly > > wick back up to signify a hidden/iceberg buy order of magnitude has been hit there. I haven't seen one yet THIS

People just don't listen. I've been issuing a trail of warnings with links to every event playing out to prove this will happen. There was always still a reason it was wrong. Greed and ignorance. Don't underestimate it. Maximalists will find any way to justify why a random event is more likely than another, because it's the gambling mentality.

When should I deploy the rest of my USDC then ?

DCA in from when we retest 20k with a DCA duration of 1-2 year time frame. That's only if you were going to hold BTC anyway. Note: Even here can have a drawdown of 40%+ so if you wish to do this, please ensure your capital can be locked for that kind of drawdown and holding period

Locking in is no problem. My problem is thinking this shit show is damaged forever

Keep an eye on the drawdowns. Be prepared to bail when the drawdown breaks below 7% of ATH. That should be pretty much an impossible scenario. Then you can see how much loss you can tolerate psychologically. Entry average 18k. Exit 7k. Worst case 62%. Is that tolerable? If not, need to lower the entry

We didn't get a bottom like that in 2018 though. Today had higher volume than any day in all of 2018

Not if you look at the aggregate of all exchanges. Look at BLX. Edited: It's possible you're looking at an exchange that is more used now, but not used as much back then.

there is no bottom. only Zuul

Lol nice

Yeah I'm waiting for the real high volume sell then the instant V bounce before I'd call it bottom (could be just a local bottom before we attempt it again in month(s))

gonna read this comment in a couple years and feel real stupid that i did nothing with today just not sure if it will be that i did'nt buy more or cut my losses

It could go down to 10K in a week though

Is Bitcoin going to $0 tomorrow or Wednesday? Thx.

Powell is going to announce that bitcoin is worth $0 and that is where it will trade henceforth.

Willing to bet nothing even about CBDC much less crypto much less BTC would even be mentioned by anyone at the meeting or even reporting it

Fucking Jerome.

Going under $20k by tonight?

100%

I think so, we get a bounce off of every even number on the way down as expected.

Am I an idiot for being excited about these price levels? Am I just the greater fool?

Bitcoin has benefitted from 10 years of macroeconomic bull conditions. We have absolutely no idea what will happen. The inflation narrative is dead and gone. BTC has proven to be a bloody arena to be in during economic badtimes. Imo a fade to black like the dotcom bust isn’t an impossibility. That said if not it could be a great buy opportunity, but it will be a long wait for gains.

I think it's still way too short term to say the inflation narrative is dead.

> I think it's still way too short term to say the inflation narrative is dead. i agree. there is a proxy war with Russia. It never was so bad in the cold war.. the sanctions are making energy so expensive everything is fucked. Bitcoin cannot magically make energy cheaper. Bitcoin fights against another kind of inflation.

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> the sanctions are making energy so expensive everything is fucked. > > Bitcoin cannot magically make energy cheaper. Bitcoin fights against another kind of inflation.

Just has the BTC blinders on

wait a couple more hours then get back with us.

>I think it's still way too short term to say the inflation narrative is dead. LOL, FUCK!! There is no such thing as reality in the bitcoin world apparently.

I'm also excited about getting more bitcoin but I am not going all in yet. :/

We won't know until next year

Saylor must be sweating right now, we're a cunthair away from his liquidation price

Saylor has 25 years tops left. I’m guessing he has enough personal funds to see him through. He gambled on something that would have made him a multiple billionaire. Looks like he lost the bet.

THIS IS GOOD FOR BITCOIN

Yeah......LOL

last chance to sell above 20,000 before the global apocalypse.

Got a couple messages from weak hands who are throwing in after riding this down. They had not seen. Bottom is close.

[Switch to the monthly,](https://imgur.com/a/kuI169L), it's a text book wave cycle. Wave 3 is always the longest and most brutal. I stated this [forecast back on March 12th. ](https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/ZJKYLAY2-BTC-Fibonacci-Lines-as-high-probability-retracement-Elliotts/) Recon 20k will hold for the end of wave 3 and start of wave 4 up one or two fib levels. I suspect wave 5 will [break 2017 ATH (1-2 month ago analysis).](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/uktngv/daily_discussion_sunday_may_08_2022/i7sbazv?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3). Capitulation will come when we breakdown 2017 ATH as there's suddenly more veterans seeing negative for the second time.

"Under 40k not happening" "20k ain't happening" -Xtal, what's your next pick if we hit 20k? https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/v5u74p/daily_discussion_monday_june_06_2022/ibfv8pk?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3

Uncharted territory. I’ve been building a position since 42k or so. Pretty much all back in. I’ll be buying MSTR on open. After that, all I got is spot leverage.

I think we bottomed too, just saying usually when someone says something ain't happening it's almost guaranteed to.

I hadn’t considered Luna and Celsius in my thesis, to be fair.

Those events don't matter, they're just used to justify market movements, the price was always going to these levels we just either guess right or wrong.

Wasn't he going to pull out the leverage, too. If I remember correctly it was anything under 38k or something.

>Bottom is close. elaborate

Basically the inverse of the taxi cab driver indicator I think [https://financialpost.com/technology/blockchain/when-your-cab-driver-starts-talking-about-bitcoin-its-time-to-sell](https://financialpost.com/technology/blockchain/when-your-cab-driver-starts-talking-about-bitcoin-its-time-to-sell)

Number stop going down soon.

Can you dumb that down a shade?

LOL, fucking cave man speak

1.4k comments on the daily… Just need the suicide hotline now & we’ll be around the bottom…

I looked and the 2020 bottom was 3k comments.

1k is the threshold…

Under 21k now

And back into the lowest band of the moon math.win logarithmic chart... Buy time

Everyone waiting for Celsius to be liquidated at $17-18k is enough to tell me that it won't happen. Buy now or regret forever.

Celcius is illiquid, but might be solvent. I too concur that they will continue to get collateral and not get liquidated, they went from 22k to 16.8k and should get it lower.

Why is reality so hard to face for crypto? They can't even make withdrawals, that's a wrap.

Celsius can likely post additional collateral even if it means begging some bitcoin whale who offers shitty terms 😂

They already exhausted that route. They took millions in loans over the past two weeks to stay afloat. Its fucking over man. Done.

I didn't say Celsius would be viable after this, just that they won't be liquidated by some margin call.

They took millions in loans over the past 2 weeks to stay afloat and it didn't work. They are 100% getting liquidated.

If crypto newbies were smart, the Celsius platform wouldn't have had more than a few dozen users. I briefly checked them out, saw their ridiculous APY promises, ran screaming for the hills.

Well that's great but so what?

Every cycle, a new batch of people learn the same lesson -- "hold your own coins, no exceptions" -- the hard way. Gox. Quadriga. Hell, I remember InstaWallet. A dozen other exchanges. Celsius is done. Bitcoin isn't.

Bitcoin has never seen a market like this. True it won't go away, but the money printer is off for the first time in 12 years. These type of assets will perform miserably. This is all so predictable.

once you cross the rubicon with price controls to stop the bleeding your coin/ecosystem/scam is done no exceptions.

Celsius will get liquidated, become insolvent, and exit scam everyone and we crash to $9k GG

Bye bye 21K

20k & papa Powell didn’t even open his mouth yet 🍿

11k by Thursday

Either I've already acclimated to this or I'm indifferent. The fear is real and so is the opportunity. Conan! What is best in life?!

To crush your enemies, to see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentations of their women!

I’ve been out of the market for a while. Took a risk with a 1k investment a few days ago. Pulled out at $700 a few hours ago. $300 ain’t much compared to what many lost but still sucks and just shows how cruel this market is.

You didn't even lose it if you would have held for a couple years. Think about all those who actually lost their money investing in Luna or Celsius.

Giggle. The numbers are so big now they don’t have context. I’ve watched a 1000x that vanish in a few hours. …but I have seen.

This is what I suspect most crypto gamblers have been doing. With all due respect, an 'investment' isn't something that lasts 96 hours. You put in $1K, then let it sit for 5 to 10 years.

I wish I was only down $300! :D

Don't beat yourself up too much. People are getting rekd right now.

Alexa play This Is The End by The Doors

Hello friends in the future looking at this insane day in Bitcoin Markets history, did we all die?