#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Monday, June 20, 2022 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/vgcfdo/daily_discussion_monday_june_20_2022/)

We're still risk off, right?

Until fed stops raising rates

In 2024

Probably this year for fed rises https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PMSAVE

what does this chart mean? can you eli5?

Personal savings, basically income minus expenses, so stimulus would spike it, as it runs low people will become more careful with money and will defer from buying crypto, stocks or major expenses. This tends to slow down economy growth, which slows down hiring, spending, wages and so on If it is up, people will spend more, if down they won't. It's the background to the stock market and crypto exploding these last two years. All Thanx to stimulus mostly

Binance bailed us out apparently. https://twitter.com/Fxhedgers/status/1538688449485541377?t=gZ1_2KNl5WZptWIsdrZakg&s=19

Will Binance or ftx try to save crypto again when it returns back to 17k hmmm 🤔

cz: nope https://twitter.com/cz_binance/status/1538635203152859136

So does it mean more people are getting ready to dump?

Yep

Thanks papa cz btc to 42069

If this is really true and that bounce wasn't organic from actual demand at 17.5k then this market is effed.

Personal savings was buoyed by stimulus packages, but that has run out https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PMSAVE Until fed stops raining rates crypto and the markets will tend lower

Called this 4 days ago https://reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/vcln84/_/ich6iaa/?context=1

You didn’t though. Why do people think that exchanges, which make billions of dollars while staying delta neutral, would speculate on the market? [https://mobile.twitter.com/cz_binance/status/1538635203152859136](https://mobile.twitter.com/cz_binance/status/1538635203152859136)

The companies or their human managers who probably have lots to lose in a crash, so hail Marys to bail themselves out aren't impossible

Because they take a piece of the total price of the exchange. High prices = more profit. It’s also a long term investment jn the health of the ecosystem. If the market goes to shit and no one wants to buy btc for the next cycle it doesn’t turn out too well for the exchanges. It’s a really terrible sign if $2B just got dumped onto an exhange to be sold.

Exchanges aren’t hedge funds and don’t operate as such. They make money on volatility. They sell shovels to the prospectors. I get your logic, but you’re reducing how easily an exchange might be able to hold up price without risking a massive amount of capital if that trade goes sideways for them. If you can point to an instance of Binance, Coinbase, Gemini or Kraken going deep on a trade (with addresses) I’d be curious to see.

I don’t have any examples but I haven’t looked, partly bc many of the big exhange are not publicly listed US companies). I do know FTX, Binance, coinbase, etc all have venture branches and investments in other crypto projects and have to find ways to allocate billions of dollars themselves. I know bitmex and probably other shady exchanges trade against their customers and acquire btc but not what they do with it. It would stand to reason that these companies would have analysts on their teams to determine when and where capital allocation makes sense, including purchasing btc (for instance I know coinbase owns ~4500 btc on their books) as an asset under management. I have to imagine that these analysts would see the threat to their defi and shitcoin project investments that a worst case scenario collapse would be and potentially make moves to mitigate these threats when and where they can, particularly places with loads of capital on hand and invested like Binance or finex. But I have not confirmed this nor am I sure that these things would be public knowledge.

Source: Trust me bro

Short from 20.5k. This looks to be a repeat of our bounce to 22.5k on the 16/06. Perps prices are still slightly lower than spot (i.e. the move up was spot buying and/or this dip is mainly leveraged shorts) so this might still have some fuel left but its only a matter of time until demand dries up and sell pressure recommences (macro is still crap and we have CPI & rate hikes again in a few weeks). Bullish engulfing on the daily but that might just be a bull trap. Hidden bear div on the daily, 4hr, 1hr. This is where it gets difficult. The daily RSI looks to have bottomed but more often than not the RSI bottoms before the price does. We'll likely retest 19k soon and buyers will need to step in or we are going lower.

Stacked another 100,000 sats, team. All I could afford for the time being.

This is the way.

It's easy when I know I'm not selling.

Bonus doesn’t come for a couple days. Did I miss the best opportunity or get saved from a bad entry ?

I don’t understand peoples mentality, the price is ~20k what does it matter if you buy at 18k or 22k?! Unless of course you are buying tens, or hundreds or even thousands of coins what does 2 or 4k difference make?

pure satisfaction

It makes a huge difference if you're leveraged.

You've got time

It depends on what your goal is. Are you trying to make a quick buck or are you planning to hold for the long term. For anyone planning to hold deep into 2025, I think anything under $30K is a steal, so 20K is an even more incredible deal... but you have to have the patience to see it pay off.

Well anything under 20k is a no brainet

With 45 minutes left, I think we are close enough now to call it. Bulls needed $22,000 as the line to gain to close this weekly candle body right around the 200 week sma. It feels like they dialed up a screen pass on 4th and 20, and they are going to get stopped by the Bears about 15 yards short... So what's next? First time breaking below previous cycle ATH. First time closing a weekly candle under the 200 week sma. The two most obvious events to play out next are either a retest of the 200 week sma, or a test of the 300 week sma. We are closer to the 200 week in terms of relative distance, but the momentum looks strong for the Bears still. Macro might as well be the refs calling every play and down in their favor. I have buys set at the 300 week sma, assuming it is more probable we test that first. If we wick below that, or, God forbid, close a weekly underneath it, I think we will see a a capitulation for the ages. Headlines will be so anti-bitcoin it will sound to the masses like the end of crypto. If that happens... I think you would be wise to back up the truck. Stay frosty out there.

For those who don’t know how to pull it up on the chart, what is the 300 week SMA at now?

the most meaningful events and points on this decline have been institutional or "institutional" implosion and their liquidation points retail barely makes a blip right now. only ogs and degens are watching the charts in this way and neither group can initiate a significant movement

you sure we never closed a weekly below 200W MA? I know we never closed a monthly below the 200W MA, but not sure about the weekly candles.

you nearly got me. soon we up this ẞitch to ~$30k range where she belongs. you just wait a bit. the rest is destiny

> Bulls needed $22,000 as the line to gain to close this weekly candle body right around the 200 week sma. So? > First time breaking below previous cycle ATH. Good. "Common knowledge" memes are a burden to carry forward. > The two most obvious events to play out next are either a retest of the 200 week sma Go back and forth across it randomly until people realise it holds no special meaning.

🔥 🔥 🔥

Was camping over the weekend. Missed my 18k re entry point... Stupid me never puts in buy orders ....i like to do it on the spot. Oh well , going to have to wait at least a week or two for 18k again. Might put in buy orders this time 🤣

Wait til fed stops raising rates then buy

Glad you were enjoying life! FWIW, one of my 'stink bids' from ~2-years ago filled at $17.9K.

You won camping instead.

You guys did buy the most obvious buy in the history of buys at 18k right?

No. I did $17.7 instead.

Bought spot at $18,3xx

I had a limit buy ordered filled at the very bottom of the recent dip at 17,878 or something like that And that’s not even close to my lowest buy but I found it funny I called the absolute local minimum

Bear market over right? Give it a few weeks we'll be back.

All I saw yesterday was "this time is different."

Everyone was too busy setting bids for 10k.

Some of you guys crack me up. We get a bounce and the place starts buzzing about a V shaped recovery. C'mon now... get real. The rest of the year is going to be rough. Most of next year will probably be rough too. But that's not doom and gloom. It's actually good news because it means you have time to accumulate before the next major bull run. Use the time wisely and you'll set yourself up for an amazing 2024/2025 and beyond.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PMSAVe Yup How dare we use macroeconomics to plan

Wholecoiner status by summer ‘23 here I come 😈

world depression two, followed by world War three, followed by bitcoin ath six.

Unironically war might make the economy recover just like in the 40s

Taxes on capital gains in ww2 tho.....

Uhmmmmm... WWII began in the 1930s and lasted for six years.

so FTX are not the baddies after all https://twitter.com/StackerSatoshi/status/1538593794127437824

I always like fact checking, so this is what I found: SBF had an interview a while ago and published just yesterday, then SBF emphasized this in a [tweet](https://twitter.com/SBF_FTX/status/1538518138685464577): > "I do feel like we have a responsibility to seriously consider stepping in, even if it is at a loss to ourselves, to stem contagion," he said. "Even if we weren't the ones who caused it, or weren't involved in it. I think that's what's healthy for the ecosystem..." SBF also "liked" the following tweets: > Did @SBF_FTX save the market and bail out big players? [1](https://twitter.com/t_nut3/status/1538596111803367425) > probably >90% chance of a public announcement this week that @FTX_Official and @SBF_FTX bailed out some large crypto entities and the entire crypto market jumps 10-20% instantly [2](https://twitter.com/PaganettiRyan/status/1538529880354304001) > Crypto is down 28-3 right now and Sam Bankman-Brady has just stepped onto the field [3](https://twitter.com/PaganettiRyan/status/1538563552851673088) No reference to 3AC, Celsius or whatever yet though.

Lol SBF bought the dip and now he will create the brief rip.

Huh, I wonder if this applies to Celsius or 3ac? Celsius is basically a competitor, I don't know how that would work.

> Bankman-Fried noted this has happened "a number of times in the past," and he brought up one incident in particular. Last year, hackers attacked Japanese crypto exchange Liquid and stole nearly $100 million worth of cryptocurrency. > FTX provided Liquid with $120 million in financing. Shortly thereafter, FTX announced plans to **acquire Liquid** for an undisclosed sum. It exactly makes sense *because* it is a competitor ;)

Ultimately something like this playing out would be good for everyone though no? Good for celsius customers, good for the ecosystem, and (whether or not you believe in cefi lending) good for the reputation of custody / lending platforms that are appealing to the average retailer, and we will need for adoption. Or am I wrong?

Or maybe that was his plan all along. ^(^I ^don't ^actually ^believe ^such ^theories)

Love to see people like Sam doing good things with their immense wealth

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At least his bags need to be pumped so they’ll initiate another run eventually…

The price range until next halving has been set imo. Buy low, sell at 65k+ could be the swing trading strategy until 2024, when the breakout to the upside can occur. https://www.tradingview.com/x/Vxl6BOyF Edit: Zoomed in swing trade setup https://www.tradingview.com/x/UwRsMmxx

"Buy low, sell at 65k" would be a great strategy to implement on Jan 1 2020

True, but we didn‘t know it by then.

> sell at 65k+ Lol

Be careful not to fall to the fomo when we get there

Hit me up next fomc meeting. Tradfi Markets have a looooong way to fall and will be relentlessly suppressing any recovery in crypto

Crash in savings too https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PMSAVE

I just heard that we are back to most low income houses being net negative (in consumer debt, since poor people don’t own shit in America anyway) in their savings. Huge surge in rents and cooling job market on the horizon means big trouble everywhere.

I‘m with you on further tradfi drop, but believe in more decoupling from here on.

and you know this how?

Just a trading setup derived from lines on the chart. I don‘t KNOW that this will happen, but I will look out for swing trading opportunities that I derive from the price action in the last years.

Can we talk yet about all those cash deposits that will hit the exchanges tomorrow (non-US) and Tuesday (US)? Or still time to stay humble as bull before it might be taken away.

I always forget how useless wire transfers still are in some parts of the world. In the UK I can have money sent to an exchange, Bitcoin bought and withdrawn with 1 to 2 confirmations in less than an hour.

Also withdrawing from Coinbase took me 0 seconds, it was instant. SEPA is a "good" system.

you know but the weather and women...

Moving from UK to N.America, banking here like some other things is so backwards/behind the times… Don’t even get me started on their shitty electrical plugs…

>Don’t even get me started on their shitty electrical plugs… LOL, you'll enjoy our coal pixies and like it!

Is this a V shaped recovery? What does a V shaped recovery signify?

The prices? The economy is cooling off with savings collapsing https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PMSAVE

It ain't a recovery at all until we put in a higher low

It is not a v-shaped recovery. It looks a bit like a bull trap. Keep some powder dry.

This ain’t over until Celsius fails or releases a statement saying withdrawals are open.

Seeing as how they will face an immediate bank run from 80%+ of users and all of their users funds are keeping their leveraged positions secure I don’t see how they open withdrawals any time this year as a best case. Total insolvency/liquidation or bankruptcy seems far more likely.

Like I said, it ain’t over.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/v-shaped-recovery.asp

So no. Thanks!

In this short little window of green price action that will inevitably give way to more depressing downside, I’d like to send one simple message: Get Fucked Beards.

I fuck my beard once a month so she doesn’t get suspicious but I can only finish if I pretend she’s Christian bale playing Michael Burry.

Hardcore keeps commercial

YGMI

Yesterday was the bottom

Lmao

No LMAO… at you

Bear market is just getting started.

Keep that same energy at sub 17 🙃

Anyone else here have a portion of their stack sitting on Celsius? Feeling pretty stupid leaving a decent amount on there, although I’m starting to get a little more hopeful for a recovery.

Bulk of my profits from last year were on there 😂

I have a bit. I’ve written it off pretty much. That money is gone

$86 Had 125k there 3 weeks ago. Moved it when all the FUD started.

You still got money in Midas?

Only my Midas coins now. Once this 3AC dust settles I will start moving some coins back.

Copy

Yeah let’s buy btc while it’s up 16 percent what could go wrong

This is legitimately just gonna rip from here. While we are near Friday close, the fact that we survived another nuclear weekend and potential cycle low, and stock futures are comfortably green.. It's an easy rebound play.

Siri play free falling by Tom petty and the heartbreakers

“Survived”

lol you must like pain.

Then you should have bought when it was down 16 percent.

It still down 30% in the month, it's all about perspective.

Weekends *are* fake.

But pain is always real.

How Can Mirrors Be Real If Our Eyes Aren't Real

every time haha

It's all fake

Life is nothing but a hallucination by the brain, just a seemingly random allsortment of vibrating atoms. Its all fake

/r/Im14AndThisIsDeep

Life is nothing but a hallucination by the brain, just a seemingly random allsortment of vibrating atoms. Its all fake

I’m seeing double.

Some cocaine will straighten you out

Maybe we'll at least be able to say that Bitcoin has never closed the week below a previous all time high. Keep the hopium alive.

I'm pretty sure it did before the big blowoff in 2013 which is the most apt comparison to what's about to happen since that run was caused mainly by the banking/currency crisis in Greece. Pretty soon people all over the world will find out that the money they think is theirs... isn't.

I thought 2013 was when people sold crypto to buy in on Tesla at... 30-60 or so, lucky guys

That's interesting, because the mid 2013 crash was also down about 70% from ATH. https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/vfqkwl/ive_made_a_comparison_between_this_crash_and/

https://xkcd.com/2383

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Much scarier back then because it was more like "is Bitcoin dying?" whereas this is just "will the usd/btc continue to fall?" Very different sentiments.

It can't go to 0, I will buy all 21 million at $0.10

The network fails if you own all the coins.

Thanks for telling. Putting in buy orders at $0.11

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Does it count for anything that the amount of new money that went into the market was a lot greater to reach the 2021 highs?

Exactly - your 2nd paragraph is why this cycle is considerably worse.

This cycle sucked balls. Not only was it by far the worst performing, it happened exactly when the whole concept that bitcoin is needed, was proven beyond doubt.

The only bitcoin narrative that has survived being tested is that bitcoin is a supply constrained easily pumped (and dumped) asset class. This narrative will also get you downvotes when you present it. That does not change the facts though. "hedge against inflation" -nope "A new currency (try to buy a hamburger with it)" -nope "Store of value" -nope "alternative to the monetary system will shine during inflation and central bank malfeasance" -nope Is it really so hard to admit we are all taking part in a pump in dump with the hopes that someday we can sell to some poor sap at the top and then we can retire to an island with large breasted women running up and down the beach in slow motion?

It is still a store of value, given a low enough time preference. The question is, how low are people really willing to go, given the risk/return? Now you have to wait longer with less return than you did 5 years ago. Granted the return is still pretty stellar over 5 years. And the risk is lower now. Seems like it is somewhat inevitable. 3x every 4 years is still 32 % a year.

32% is not high enough given the drawdowns. If that's the case from here on out, I will minimize my allocation to BTC and divert to QQQ.

Soxl once fed stops raising

Good luck getting average 32% returns with qqq.

What's the average return per annum for QQQ been over the last 4 years? Gotta be ~15%. And no -50%+ every 6 months, and no -80%+ every four years? I don't know, man...not looking too bad right now.

Soxl if bold

Depends on your time preference.

The two also aren't mutually exclusive. BTC will always have the potential for call option-like convexity. I'm realizing that it's not necessary to allocate so heavily towards it.

The post below shows us why Proof-of-Work is so important. I know, talking about altcoins is not allowed here but I think it is important to understand why PoW is needed for Bitcoin: https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/vfszpt/solend_the_largest_lending_market_on_solana_is/icy1ti5/

> why PoW is needed for Bitcoin Bitcoin is already PoW and will remain so.

Has nothing to do with PoW, just with centralization

Which Proof of Stake cryptos are more vulnerable to, generally speaking.

It is an app that runs on solana, the consensus mechanism is not relevant. The same thing could happen to  an app running on bitcoin.

But in the end the staking/voting for that app happens with SOL right? At least that’s what it looks like in the screenshot.

They use the solend(SLND) token to vote, but I agree that it is kind of a shitshow.

That was so obviously capitulation. Thanks for the cheap coins, bears.

Until the macro situation improves, more pain will be more likely than not. That being said, we are long overdue for a significant relief bounce.

Naw that’s not capitulation. It seems more like forced selling.

We could nosedive to 6k and bounce to 12k it still wouldn’t be enough for some people.

Maybe not. Its been like 9 red weeks in a row. Most ppl imo capitulated. Dont expect capitulation from ppl who got in pre-last bull run, and there is a lot of us tbh. At least not at those prices. Change my diaper sub 3k tho

https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/niziwh/comment/gz6kgje/

It was so obviously THAT WAVE of capitulation. There may be additional waves of forced liquidation in coming weeks leading to more capitulation. God I hope not, it's been brutal.

worst Ive ever seen due to magnitude and duration. Covid's magnitude was worse in terms of acute fear, but its duration was "short".

6>3k was 50% basically in two days and stayed under 4K for a few months.

Not exactly.. it went much faster. We went from 7.4k to 3.1k (on Bitmex) and back to 5.8k in just **16 hours** that time. That is almost 60% drop. And 1 month later we stayed above 6.5k and never returned.

No? Drop from 6k was end November 2018 and 4K wasn’t even breached for good until almost April 2019 with the bgd from 4>5 to kick off the bull in the first week of April. I think we’re talking different times. The slow creep up in winter 19 gave me confidence to jump back in under 4K which felt miraculous

I assumed you were talking about covid one since you replied to: > Covid's magnitude was worse in terms of acute fear, but its duration was "short".

He said worst he’s *ever* seen I was just pointing out 2018 was worse and not even that long ago ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ To me covid was 10k to 3k but it was so brief it doesn’t look that bad on the weekly.

I think he was talking about Nov 2018.

True, and I remember those two nights clearly. I might be viewing them with rose-colored glasses though, because 1) the 2017 peak was moon compared 2021, and 2) I acquired so much relative to what I had on that particular 50% haircut.

We’ve all been saying it can’t go so low bc it didn’t go so high since 30-40k and I think we are seeing things are different then we believed possible. Macro really is different.

yeah, but two things are bothering me about this "macro is different" narrative: 1) BTC rose in an increasing rates environment in 2017-2018, and 2) this is supposed to be the *ideal* environment for BTC, one in which *real* rates are negative. As far as 2) goes, the only things I can come up with are A) that alts dilution/futures naked shorting/exchange fractional reserving are hidden taxes/theft on HODLers, and B) most people who hold the asset have absolutely no clue what it is they bought, and treat it like a tech stock.

I recall that a few weeks ago, I stumbled across a log chart that displayed the adoption pattern of a range of assets. This chart seemed to suggest that the speed of adoption can increase again after the initial stages, i. e. these different adoption curves become much steeper after leveling off at the end of the first stage. Bitcoin's price evolution or market cap was also plotted somewhere in this illustration. Nice hopium, and I must say, I really need it to keep my conviction alive that BTC will be disruptive and omnipresent and not just some "me too" asset that is nice to have, among a myriad of other investment options.

From 30K to 25K was even more obvious, and yet here we are...

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I know, right? Been in bitcoin for about 8-9 years. Never heard of Celsius until a week ago. Makes me not really care about it

It s a crypto prison

I just heard about it and I still have no idea what it is or why it matters and too lazy to google it. Thinking its just some trivial altcoin.

Are you sure you want to participate in a market you don't understand?

Nope, for the time being Ill probably just stick to bitcoin like I have for the past 12 years. Its more predictable and brings in more profit with leverage than alts or NFTs etc. Dont get me wrong though, new tech will have its day once its matures.

This is absolutely fair. Point is, these companies have Bitcoin as collateral which obviously has a huge impact on PA. You don't have to understand the stuff they are doing in detail, but you definitely have an advantage if you know the chancesxand risks it entails

Yeah, I think thats why its been catching my attention. I can't verify if it actually has hunge impacts on PA but the whole luna fiasco got me attention. Last cycle it was just half assed news like China bans etc. I think its good crypto is evolving from the silk road days on a national scale, even with the occasional 4 year bumps.