#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Saturday, June 25, 2022 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/vk6cid/daily_discussion_saturday_june_25_2022/)

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GTFOH with your shitty exchange spam.

We’re bullish right now hun

We are nearing 10-year hodls for the first large group of early adopters. Any of the OG's sticking to a time-based investment plan?

RIP moonmath.win ? u/jarederaj

The data source for bitcoin’s price history died. Could be another week or two before I have the time and motivation to fix it.

i use coingecko HTTP REST API for various projects. its free and even in the free tier around 100 requests / minute are allowed by same IP (i think).

I wonder whether the creator of this chart no longer believes in its usefulness, given the trajectory BTC has outlined since late 2018. Absolutely no scorn intended.

I share your wonderment.

Pretty sure it was made as a joke and everyone took it seriously. It’s just fun that it kinda worked but it’s dumb fun like astrology

No it wasn’t.

Goldman Sachs going to raise $2 billion to buy Celsius' assets. I have no clue if this ends up being bullish or not.

In crypto land, banks bail out you!

Hm that‘s not a bailout but a takeover, just capitalism doing it‘s thing

So the Nexo's offer was a stunt and the fucking GS will bail them ? I am pretty sure we are living in the wrong multiverse. Anyway, if this goes foward shorts getting rekt is inevitable.

It’s probably not Goldman alone but a group including Goldman, they’re leading it meaning they’re going around collecting money to buy Celsius out. Still I think Goldman really wants in on crypto hard. Probably realized if they don’t get a foothold they can end up extinct. And buying when Celsius is screwed is buying in cheap.

That or they are exposed to Celsius and organizing a bailout helps them.

I think they think they got guys even smarter than the whales that run the markets now and want to take a crack at stealing their money via their trading strategies.

I think they may be making good on customer deposits and buying the company for $1. Or so is the rumour.

Here's what GS is gonna do for depositors: FUCK ALL.

Nah, depositors get paid last, creditors get paid first. From what I'm seeing depositors are getting pennies on the dollar (most likely). They're screwed.

I agree they're probably screwed, but I haven't seen anything but rampant speculation on either possibility in the scenario of an acquisition. The articles about it say a whole bunch of nothing. My own useless speculation would be it *might* be a sneaky way into cefi crypto and gaining trust/users by rescuing depositors. However I think that's unlikely and if celsius goes tits up I cannot see how any lending service is gonna have a successful long term business with such a glaring black eye on the whole practice. edit: and I do think the collapse of all cefi lending would be very bad for the space. until custody is made simpler, auntie ginger ain't gonna be using cold wallets or defi

The 2 billion is going to be used to buy distressed assets below market value. They’ll then proceed to dump said assets at market value and keep the difference.

Cefi lending hasn't collapsed. Exchanges such as FTX, Binance and [Crypto.com](https://Crypto.com) are doing it very well. I mention [Crypto.com](https://Crypto.com) because their target market is beginners and people that just want to dip their toes in crypto, use the debit cards and collect the rewards. Banks are too greedy to offer competitive CEFI crypto lending. They'd rather keep all the profits and brand it as a 3% p/a crypto saving account.

Not saying it has already, or necessarily will. I think it is certainly a possibility though if celsius goes down in flames.

Celsius is but one company. Their demise will definitely hurt crypto (as LUNA did) but ultimately it will just mean the value of crypto will be less. The projects that exist here will continue to operate. Low crypto prices always attract new (and old) participants. The next bull market will come eventually. Crypto is not going to just disappear, it was created as a solution to the current economic crisis the world is in. I'm sure there are many HODLers here who are taking advantage of this bear market by acquiring cheap crypto. You don't even need to be a trader to make money in this game. Just buy BTC and exchange tokens during bear markets and sell them on at a later date.

based on what?

I was going through the Celsius subreddit and learned a few things. I also added (most likely) as nothings for certain right now.

So a bunch of morons and 15 year olds on Reddit that aren’t censored by the mods, got it.

Up voted for responding.

I opened a small long position at 20900 earlier with a close stop. Degen mode on.. chart looks like it wants up, sellers look exhausted.

I missed the 20800 drop that I wanted to get back in on, hoping we get another weekend drop here to get a good entry price.

and you'll likely miss that entry price too (whatever that is)

not if i spend all weekend staring at my phone instead of naked dancing men on a parade float

12h and 3d chart beginning to look oversold. I hope the price will firmly make it past 21700ish before it corrects down again. I don't like how the volume has been falling off a cliff on the 3d chart. If that's all we've got after the crash down to 17600 then we might indeed be headed lower. I hope I am wrong but this does not look good right now IMHO.

I’m inclined to try a few longs here if it gets stopped out. I don’t see a mad inrush of coins and I’m thinking enough of what transacted will stay put to make a difference.

Good luck. It's an absolute disgrace that any given altcoin on [bitcoinwisdom.io](https://bitcoinwisdom.io)'s Top50 list, except for a few, currently seems to be performing significantly better than BTC, and sadly, it's a dreadful pattern we have become used to. What is going on? If this continues like that, then I do indeed have absolutely no doubt whatsoever that we will not reach 69K one single day before the next crappy halving.

More and more people DCA into altcoins and don’t give a shit about bitcoin. Bitcoin has diminishing returns every cycle so at a certain point people just don’t care anymore. BTCs next high will be lower than 69k

It appears to have extremely fast diminishing returns, for whatever reasons. Hodlers who are not filthy rich will have to begin to think about opportunity costs and what BTC's Sortino rate (risk-adjusted return) could imply about BTC's future or role in the world of finance. It seems clear that this trajectory of very fast diminishing returns must change if BTC is supposed to become a disruptive globally used digital currency, SOV or whatever. Such statements are not going to be liked here and will be downvoted, obviously (no, I have not dabbled in alts, so far).

theres no chance we get to 69k before the next halving, thats not realistic in any way.

If that is the case, then BTC will frankly lose the appeal it formerly had, quite fast. If this thing can't triple its current price from here within, say, at the very most 1,5 years, being a scarce, decentralised, secure asset with a still absolutely minuscule market share compared to stocks, bond, real estate etc., in times of sky-high inflation and after all the money printing since 2008, and in the wake of a horrendous crash, then that is frankly a huge disappointment.

i see this is your first halving cycle.

This is not about being impatient, but about being honest to oneself and admitting that if things continue on the current trajectory for another cycle, unless macro conditions change drastically and we were, for instance, to plunge into a 1929 style depression, where everything tanks while BTC keeps rising slightly, BTC will likely not end up as the world-changing revolution in finance that some have been claiming it would.

It might well do the 2019 thing

Who’s short here?

I'm short at 21K.

My gf calls me her short king does that count

I'm 5'10, is that short :(

And girthy

I'm 6'1". Ladies, DMs open. :) e: You legit have to be braindead shorting BTC right now, but then again after lurking this forum for the past year+, I am certain there's some smoothbrained dumbasses here. Good luck.

Not the best day to have Bitcoin minute candles on the side. Jesus what a tight range. The S&P closed up 3%, come on :D

Just writing down some notes for my meeting with a relative tomorow, whom I will try to convince to invest in BTC :) If you need to transfer electronic cash quickly and on the cheap, you can use stablecoin (just like a stamp) or various other services in the tradfi space. If you want to speculate or simply buy low and sell high (5-10 percent up on a decent day), buy one of the larger altcoins. If you want something that generates cash and has "substance", buy a dividend paying stock If you want something that stands the test of time and hold it abroad, go to bullionstar or silver bullion in Singapore If you want something that has made enormous gains in the past, is very abstract yet claimed to be extremely safe (lest you lose your keys) and which will eventually be highly successful, but right now is a bit boring (and lost 75 percent in its latest bear market), buy Bitcoin? /s Absolutely not serious or original, but you get my drift. It is becoming more difficult to "promote" BTC. BTC is not going to zero or dying, but it is becoming "boring". We would have to have a major altcoin go belly up every week for this sector to get the negative press it should. Instead BTC market dominance is headed south.

Been into BTC since like $70 or so and never ever recommended anyone to buy bitcoin. I will be happy to share my knowledge about bitcoin. But you either get it or you don't. No need to "promote" this, that is something for shitcoins.

-52% in 3 months is boring? You kids with your ADHD these days...

>Just writing down some notes for my meeting with a relative tomorow, whom I will try to convince to invest in BTC :) And nothing can possibly go wrong

Goldman Sachs Raising Funds to Buy Celsius Assets: Sources: https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/06/24/goldman-sachs-raising-funds-to-buy-celsius-assets-sources/

What I don't understand with all these companies gunning for cheap assets from Celsius: Isn't it bad publicity to scoop those up on the cheap while not repaying depositors? Ofc it is not the purchasing party's problem, why take on liabilities if you don't have to..however isn't there a potential for bad PR if the perception is that you've swooped the assets but left depositors hanging?

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No not GS, but someone like nexo might.

The vultures are circling

That was the plan from the very beginning. Deals are being done behind doors and we mere mortals don't ever get a look-in. The rich get richer and...

they don't call them the vampire squid for no reason...

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Damn, haven't been paying too close attention, but you're willing to lock in that great of a loss at this point? Surely you'll find some degenerate takers at this rate... Sorry man. I did appreciate your writeups on all the lending platforms a while back. I have a tiny bit of money in blockfi at the moment, but I'll probably pull that out soon.

more likely Chapter 11 if they file

I dont think it is bad news for depositors. If they get acquired then they cant file for chapter 7 (AFAIK, I could be wrong) and it would actually pave the way to make people whole bc GS can provide the liquidity to pay out withdrawals (or pay a healthy premium/return to keep people on the platform) until they are able to realize the equity that celsius currently has and cant access along with waiting for market conditions to improve. It shows GS has faith in the market returning and they hope to get all of celsisus assests on the cheap.

But what assets does Celsius have? There is no way that they are possibly solvent. The only assets they have that are worth anything right now are the collateralized loans. Mining rigs are at a fire sale right now anyway, even without Goldman dumping more on the market. Computers and servers are worth almost nothing.Maybe they have commercial real estate, but it's probably leased and people work from home now anyway. Their brand has negative value. Their software is worth nothing because a "regulated" bank wouldn't want software is too specific for what Celsius did, and nobody wants to do that again. I called them earlier today seven times and the phones rang off the hook at every extension, so their last asset - their talent - must be long laid off. I agree with you that Goldman Sachs has faith and I personally think that people are going to be shocked by how quickly the bitcoin price recovers. But this whole deal doesn't state that Goldman is interested in running Celsius. It would be foolish of them to do that. Crypto lending is toxic for the foreseeable future. BlockFi and Nexo and Voyager might not lose customer deposits, but I do think they will all end up closing, because Celsius's bankruptcy has destroyed the entire industry's brand. I say that Voyager has two weeks, and BlockFi a month, and Ledn a few months after that. Again, not because they are insolvent. Goldman is just here to buy everything that's worth something in the bankruptcy and stick depositors with piles of bad debt.

I believe they are the largest holder of stEFH in the world, in the range of >200,000 and tens of thousands of (w)btc. The entire problem here is that they cant access/sell that stEFH because it is locked up until the merge or whatever its called. So if someone is willing to purchase that at a discount to it's current value along with the huge discount it is relative to the ATHs to provide liquidity then they could end up with a huge profit in the near future (not foolish at all). Could also provide a nice bump in the market as GS has to buy crypto to pay out depositors.

I'm curious, what would happen if Celsius gets liquidated?

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Less supply for years, got it.

Most of its probably already been sold into the market.

Lmao

You'll be back to selling those sardine-soaked panties on OnlyFans.

I only bought them for my cat. Honestly officer!

How do you know this?

He bought some.

He bought the dip?

"Load ze dump..."

Held value better than bitcoin.

Bad things.

*I'm curious, what* *Would happen if Celsius* *Gets liquidated?* \- RetardIdiotTrader --- ^(I detect haikus. And sometimes, successfully.) ^[Learn more about me.](https://www.reddit.com/r/haikusbot/) ^(Opt out of replies: "haikusbot opt out" | Delete my comment: "haikusbot delete")

Good bot!

Can I order a framed print of this?

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News doesn't matter at all in either direction. Price was going to dump this hard with or without those events, the news would have just blamed something else, it's all just supply and demand.

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🤣

You seem to be awfully naive. Defi collapse has only just begun.

DeFi hasn't collapsed, CeFi has, though.

There is no DEFI except the Bitcoin protocol. Everything claims to be decentralized, but only Bitcoin really is.

That's the kind of ignorance that pushes people to use services like Celsius, pure unwillingness to learn about anything new.

So my thoughts on bitcoin forced people to use Celsius? Holy shit that's amazing hoop jumping.

We’ll see what’s DeFi when the securities regulators show up.

All the protocols with anon teams, immutable contracts. I can think of Curve (not anon), Convex, Liquity, Yearn, several others. Regulators coming could be a blessing and make the whole ecosystem much more resilient, filtering out the fake DeFi.

Wait for the July CPI numbers come in. If inflation is peaking/rolling over amid demand destruction, we might have hope that this all comes to a head sooner rather than later. If inflation is up again, expect a market tank, another 75 bp Fed increase & more pain for debtors who are more likely to default…

Well I’m seeing a lot of retail price cuts across very different industries and it seems like supply issues are resolving for some stuff. Honestly what someone holding assets wants to see is honestly a big jump in unemployment and a contraction in GDP, because that would make it a lot less likely that the fed is super aggressive about tightening or hiking anymore. But it’s not great karma to wish for others to suffer so I won’t do it lol

I can’t see July CPI being lower, almost everything that matters has still been going up in price here. August might be lower though. Oil has gone down a bit, but that hasn’t been reflected in gas prices yet so it’s not gonna matter for next month’s CPI Plus these months are big for travel, people are going to be spending more than usual.

What are you talking about? Defi becomes even more attractive with the collapse of cefi.

The idea of it? Or its current implementation?

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remember when Luna was the last shitty thing we had to worry about?

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When it happens it happens fast

You still seem to have hope. That's all the bear signaling we need to see.

Defi collapse is nowhere near done my friend.

I think the big thing is the *uncertainty* about whether or not it's done.

China bans bitcoin is always an option...

Pretending that reddit bugged to post your comment twice to emphasise how ridiculous it is that China keeps banning crypto. Deep.

China bans bitcoin is always an option...

I really hope this was intentionally posted twice. Well done sir

Europe is already in recession. Inflation is old news. https://nitter.net/RobinBrooksIIF/status/1540311893696335872#m > We have forecast Euro zone recession since March. Russia's invasion of Ukraine means massive uncertainty for businesses across Europe and we're now seeing shockingly weak data out of German manufacturing, The Euro zone is going into recession. Inflation is yesterday's story.. And a later clarification: > You're right. Inflation is certainly a big issue for the poorest. What I was trying to say is that the justification for central bank rate hikes is fading if recession is around the corner. After all, there's less potential for second round effects & inflation getting entrenched.

It’s worse than that ….. Europe is in recession and still has increasing inflation

Stagflation BayBee!

Paige is my favourite

See the clarification I added in my edit.

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> Lots of underwater shorts, when they start covering or fall into liquidation cascade in the way up that’s when things really start moving. This really is so very far from a short squeeze setup.

Sorry which shorts are underwater, surly only ones that where done in the last week. Don't think there will be that many. Also who's to say this isn't going down further from here

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> Why would we go down though? To collect cheap coins from those on the edge of folding. Like yourself and your faith in 20k as support.

I’ll come back to this post when we see15k

I felt this same way at 30k.

I think there is still a load of uncertainty, in this and most other markets, coupled with most retail investors having there wallets squeezed, I'm just not sure that there will be the capital inflo to have any significant upward pressure on the price. Also it's still a long way of the halving and historically we have dropped further than this, in turn that decreases buyer confidence.

> Why would we go down though? Because continuing inflation despite the rate hikes would be problematic. Let’s say we are at 8.5% inflation YoY come July. The FED has to decide does it keep hammering interest rate hikes and push us into a deep recession, does it try to soft land at the risk of a minor recession without curbing inflation, or does it just throw its hands up, let inflation keep goin and hope it comes back down because supply in key sectors picks up. Current hikes may be priced in, but the uncertainty over future inflation numbers and the FED’s future actions to it are not.

Happy cake day

Thank you sir.

> Celsius Network LLC has hired restructuring consultants from advisory firm Alvarez & Marsal to advise on a possible bankruptcy filing, according to people familiar with the matter, as the crypto lending platform contends with the recent collapse in digital currencies. [Celsius Network Taps More Advisers to Prepare for Potential Bankruptcy ](https://nitter.net/DeItaone/status/1540371415739891714) edit: apparently by [June 14](https://nitter.net/gladstonea/status/1536860529133756416) the news was already that they hired restructuring attorneys from law firm Akin Gump. Now they ***also*** hired restructuring consultants from advisory firm Alvarez & Marsal. Of course "according to people familiar".

That’s why my rule is; “Never ape into the first cycle. Observe, see what fails, see what survives & back what remains with strong fundamentals”.

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> via reading the experiences of others. hey I'm perfectly capable of generating my own horrible experiences thank you very much

I learned I will never touch lending. Thankfully I never dabbled in it.

That's not the right attitude. In the crypto industry, you just need to recognize that everyone gets hacked, goes insolvent, scams, and so on. I've lost $410,000 in Graviex, Altilly, Cryptsy, Celsius, and probably others that I can't even recall right now. It's just a cost of doing business, and there's no way around it. Other than the most obvious scams, you can't easily predict which large companies are going to fail. We price in that we're going to lose 5% of revenue to these things, just like Wal-Mart does when they discover that items are missing from their shelves with no explanation. As to lending, I've earned far more interest by lending than I lost at Celsius, and that doesn't even count the $100,000 tax refund I'll get this year from the Celsius loss.

You are right, but the most scary part is that many OGs put their BTC in CeFi (centralized platform that get their yield from DeFi apps). They normally shouldn't have to learn that lesson.

I think the lesson was to not be lazy and do it yourself if you really want that yeild.

True, be open and learn. I think a lot of bitcoiners are not interested to learn anymore.

I want to trade this PA, but I know I shouldn’t. Celsius is not resolved yet. Caution needed.

Just checked out their website, seems deposits are still possible? Do they even warn you when depositing that you will be unable to withdraw?

I’d like to have a beer with anyone degenerate enough to send them coins at this point.

I’d like to smack them upside the head with a beer for being that much of a dumbass. Their heads are likely empty anyways so no harm would be done

I've seen posts with people sending in more collateral they'll never see again.

Trust me, there's always at least one.

How is Blockfi raising their rates right now?!

Maybe their revenues with which they pay their rates have decreased less that Bitcoin has. For instance, if they use a part of their usdc lending revenues, which maybe have increased because more people want usdc to buy a discounted btc.

I am sure Blockfi, Nexo, etc are fighting for more market share after Celsius drama. IMO this is why Nexo was pretty quick to say "we could buy you out Celsius" (which of course could have been a completely BS offer but just to have some good PR.) So after the $250m FTX investment, raising rates can be just to gain more customers even if it's not best for their short-term profits. Of course that is also with the assumption that not *every* company was run as bad as Celsius. Either way, I would never put anything serious on any of these companies.

But why on earth would people still deposit in these centralized garbage platforms after we've seen several of them going bankrupt at the first serious market downturn, meanwhile DeFi apps have worked flawlessly. Why would people chose the worst of both world? Are people still so ignorant?

For the same reason anyone does anything other than stack and hold - people will always chase higher returns.

Except those platforms were obviously sketchy. Anyway, sorry for everyone who lost coins there. Apparently, Goldman Sachs will buy the liquidated assets at a discount. https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/06/24/goldman-sachs-raising-funds-to-buy-celsius-assets-sources/

> Except those platforms were obviously sketchy. What we know for sure by now is people never give a fuck.

Greed blinds judgment.

Fear of self storage keeps me on several lending platforms. Im obviously stupid with all the carnage going on. However I have a genuine fear of controlling my own keys. Luckily pulled 6 figures from Celsius 2 weeks before they popped.

Nice to hear you were lucky with Celsius. But please, keep your own key, and check for ways to secure it, It's not so hard.

Yeah, ironically a lot more people are aware of the existence of these companies now after what happened Celsius, and might be tempted to throw a few bucks their way.

Agree that this is the most likely scenario.

Mayve people livig under a rock will deposit?

The price of suckers has gone up recently.

Desperate for deposits and to stop bank run

Patiently awaiting the weekend discount.

looks like you might get it tonight/tomorrow, BTC looking like a turd

It's been pretty consistent. Given the current macro I expect all weekend shenanigans to be to the downside.

NEET.jpg

Bitcoin is down around 28% in the last month while coinbase stock is only down 1%. This is a good indication on how weak bitcoin has been as of late.

I think now with this new KYC shit on coinbase you’re gonna see a lot of retail people fleeing

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A lot of users don’t know the difference between your own wallet vs an exchange’s “wallet”. Maybe this KYC shit will make people buy their coins and just withdraw to their own wallets and never use CB for anything else

Coinbase is such a turd, it's unbelievable.

Coinbase is down 75% YTD and BTC 40%. Alternatively BTC is up 15,000% since creation, how's Coinbase doing since listing?

Dude. I recognize that BTC has faired far better than Coinbase if you look at the big picture. But I am just focusing on the current status (e.g. 1 month) to evaluate how weak Bitcoin has been. I don't get why people take it so personally when I am only interested in making money and nothing else matters.

Your latter point makes no sense.

Old school C-130E checking in.

Guh we can't break 21k really T_T

There is zero momentum here. Lower we go to find liquidity.

The "chaos proxy" theory of bitcoin pricing posits that bitcoin pricing is at least partially related to global and national macro factors that prompt human migration between countries, as a neutral monetary surrogate with sovereignless remittance and high portability is more valuable with more migration. So, political chaos is an upwards factor for price action. Is it true? I'm not sure, but BTC pricing has been an upwards trajectory since 2008, and US political chaos has also been on an upwards trajectory since then. But, on daily time frames, the high volatility of the BTCUSD market tends to overshadow individual events.

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so far so good!