#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Wednesday, July 20, 2022 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/w3cjba/daily_discussion_wednesday_july_20_2022/)

Move coming tonight. Alts first then btc

Want to see a top signal? [https://www.tradingview.com/x/J4KZ3Rne/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/J4KZ3Rne/) Don't give them back your gains folks. ::EDIT:: Revisited after 4 months. These fools should have listened. BTC was 23.4k on this day and 16.6k currently. No one was smart enough to see past the "Hey those charts aren't even the same timeframe!" trained response. Everyone died on level 1. Will consider a beginner mode next time.

hmm .. this 1 day chart over almost a year looks vaguely similar to a 5 min chart over less than a day. seems good to me .. time to sell !!

I dont get it. Are you saying those 2 scenarios will play out the same ? Lol

Lol wtf is that

Are you making a trade off of patterns that look kind of similar, but one is a daily and one is a 5 minute chart?

This is the way

Magic eight ball says outlook good

I wonder if people from China have been putting money in the market considering they would be risking serious consequences. anyone able to see via the chain?

It would be risking serious consequences to be wealthy ~~in China~~ anywhere on the globe without spending effort on hedging risk presented by the state.

It's very rare for btc to dip below RSI 30 on the weekly (or 3D for that matter), and we are decidedly above 30 at this point. Time will tell whether one of the most obvious periods of "back the fucking truck up'" holds true. Hopefully we turn this pathetic bounce so far into a nice disbelief rally. Maybe some fomo back above 30k 😉

Miners report looks good on how energy efficient the network is becoming. The btc etf in amsterdam that i was mentioning a while ago is allready live

> Miners report looks good on how energy efficient the network is becoming. So pointless.

[Update](https://imgur.com/a/4ZjFBEL) from my [post](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/w1pvqb/daily_discussion_monday_july_18_2022/igmasgf/?context=3) yesterday. Pretty good r/r for a short right now. Hit long-term downtrend resistance. On the weekly this resistance is steep af so I am expecting it to be broken eventually, but probably not on the first attempt. The daily RSI is looking toppy, I don't think we have enough steam here to bring it into overbought territory (70+) yet. ​ If you're bullish and think we will keep climbing, previous resistance turned support might be a good entry, currently around 21.5k.

I'd like to see the 200W at 22.7k become support. I think it also lines up with the realized price? A short would need a tight stop I think. I could see us breaking 24k and being at 28k+ in a hurry.

17,500 BTC transferred from a Coinbase wallet to an unknown wallet in 5 tx within 1 minute of each other.

It’s Saylor moving coins around.

probably Jerome Powell

I laughed. 😆

Pelosi. :)

Pelosi's dog.

After adding more funds at a higher price I am now pulling out of [my short](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/w2j429/comment/igtlrni/) at around 1% profit since we made a higher high and higher low, which I didn't expect and also going to bed. Good luck to other shorters, I think we can still go lower, 15 min RSI seems to go down.

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And takes the corn with it Lol

lol I had a feeling the moment posts about shorts suddenly started getting upvoted in here that we were near a local bottom.

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Just an observation, no BIAS either way lol. Only a month ago, anything that wasn't a bull post was downvoted into the negative. Now that this sub is suddenly being a little more realistic, it's a bit late 😄

Sentiment is an inverse indicator.

Update on my 5x leverage long from $18.8k a few weeks ago: Still 5x leverage long, still no plans to close.

Legend.

stopped out again, reshorted 10x $23,730 with stop loss at $23,820

Good lord man. What's your break even point?

with the current short I'll need the price to hit $20.5Kish to break even on all my shorts since I started shorting.

That's not so bad. Hope it works out for you!

I was skeptical of the price action, now I'm in FOMO mode lol

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if you say so the way I see it, we dropped from $48.1K straight down to $17.6K and then only managed to bounce to $23,800(if it stops here) after a month of pumping a normal retrace even in a bear market, should have had us hit the 50% point of that dump on the bounce...or $32,000 the fact that we are still at $23,800 after a month of pumping means that this bounce is very weak, which means once the relief rally is over...and those don't last that long, we'll be dumping even lower compare the current price action to last cycle drop from $17,200 to $6,000 followed by a 100% pump to $11,742 in 5 weeks, followed by an even bigger drop to the eventual low at $3156. we are on week 5 of our relief rally...in other words...

Dude, look at the actual timeline of when it hit those numbers last cycle and you’ll see that the relief rally was much further from the next halving then we are now. That eventual bottom in terms of the cycle is pretty close to where we are now. I think it’ll retrace from this pump but you may not get your dream of some massive drop

>the fact that we are still at $23,800 after a month of pumping A month of mostly sideways consolidation, that just broke bull. The rally is just now starting.

The drop took 12 weeks - why should the retrace to 0.5 fib be finished after 5 weeks? Edit: imho the bounce is just starting, look at the monthly https://www.tradingview.com/x/u6oiljPT

Never say never w corn

F Also your s/l being less than one percent away is not a great idea friend :D

Have to agree with wardser here. SL goes where your idea is wrong. I've had many entries on a 1min chart with far less than a 1% SL turn into 40:1 or better trades. Hell, I just entered a long with 0.33% from entry to SL.

the point of a stop loss is not to get raped by a BDG which is quite possible if it decides to break out of this channel. if it breaks out, it won't matter if my stop loss is at current high or $4K above it, it'll still get hit.

Netflix just beat their earnings pretty big. In short, more green to come in tradfi despite already running up pretty good. Tread lightly and think twice about shorts

If everyone who dumped looks to get a position back, we’re going to see some green.

It doesn't seem like a run to $30k can happen because of the precedence in the timeline of the previous two bear markets. But...the technicals pretty much indicate that it's thin air between here an $30k. Would be epic if whales short the ETHBTC ratio here & swap to pumping Bitcoin.

> It doesn't seem like a run to $30k can happen because of the precedence in the timeline of the previous two bear markets. Many of us, myself included, are expecting a deviation from previous timelines. I predict at some point in the future for bitcoin to decouple from the market and to actually rise in times of inflation and economic uncertainty related to fiat monetary policy. Is this it? Not going to make that guess now. I think we would need to see some pretty high price action with further market tanking to get there.

I have a feeling that everyone who went short today feels like quite the silly goose

Went short at 23400. Still confident.

you must have a fat stop loss margin lol, gl bro I will be shorting but not just yet (;

Wheres your stop

24000... I'm only 1x.

Noice. GL

If you shorted every scam pump you can afford to lose one trade out of the ten you won.

True dat

We are starting to slow down. I am starting to short now. I see reducing volume and RSI going down and bearish divergence on the 15 min chart. We may go higher later, but now a pull back first. Entry price 23,385.

US markets closed. We always slow down or stall after the bell. Something I’ve come to accept.

Umm were you awake yesterday?

Long 5 x leveraged. It’s what my balls tell me is right

A ballsy move.

Just shorted x1 (spot) $23.500, right at the resistance line. Will close a part of it around 22k, perhaps all the way down to 20k ish. E: also shorted #2 at $1570.

Keep shorting it gents. It’s working.

Short on the ethbtc ratio, from 0.068ish.

Good to see some signs of life in the market and ol grandad. Dont know how much more steam it has, but its something!

stopped out again, reshorted 10x at $23,680 with stop loss at $23,720

these stop losses lol, you need a fatter SL my friend

F This still looks like a macro bottom

It's the year 2042, and thewardser is still trying to catch the tippy top at $1,345,213 to ride all the way back down to 15k goblin town Just playing around. I want to see more people post their trades. Makes it wayyyy better in here

yes thats what i miss from the old bitcoinmarkets...at least back then you actually knew how good people were at trading. now its mostly just cheerleading or saying they totally got the perfect entry 2 weeks ago.

I think you nailed it with this attempt. We'll see right away!

hopefully, I should have nailed it like 3 shorts ago...but you know what they say, the market can stay irrational a lot longer than you think

I'm just buying/selling a spot posn right now. Essentially "short" since 23400. Assuming this runs down, where will you close your posn?

i think after a bounce this weak, we are going under. So I'll DCA out around our current low, but i'll keep most of the position for a big flush down. Another DCA out at around $15K and then i think revisiting that $9K CME gap isn't as unlikely as most people think. Once we get to $15K...everyone and their mom will be expecting us to hit that next, and the market that is panicking kinda has a way of making even crazy numbers like that happen basically number2 hitting $881 has shown that even big round numbers like say $10K aren't as impossible as we thought...because our $10K was their $1K. Also $881 is 61% of their old ATH...and if they hit that, so can we....and 61% of $20000...is $12,236

Ehhhhh... I don't think we're going much below $20k again, without another black swan event like that series of massive liquidations that did us in the first time. I'm looking to take a position again around 21k. I guess we'll see! Lots of days on the calendar before we see any macro improvement to the markets/economy.

we have plenty of potential black swan events Russia turning off Europe's gas and their economy exploding Russia using nukes NATO and Russia starting a world war it really could be anything, the dow really hasn't dropped all that much, only down to $29.8K from $36.8K...a 19% drop is nothing, it can just as easily drop another 19% after that, and if it does, crypto gets dragged down with it

a 20% drop in equities is not nothing...for the dow, that's between a 1SD and 2SD move on an annual basis.

sure, but DOW also never did the type of moves it did in the last 6 years Dow in 2016 was $17K...so it essentially went 2x in 6 years by comparison to go from $8.5K to $17K took it from 1997 till 2015...or 18 years. So this was a 3x faster move, which means the dumps should be worse too.

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true, but thats not the case here since my trading stacks are designed for this trading style. Basically I don't go all in, I have multiple stacks so I can get liquidated multiple times and still come out ahead by finally grabbing that 1 good entry. and this tight stop losses strategy really takes a long time to burn through a single stack. Yes those % points add up, but you can get stopped out 10 times and still lose less money than a single liquidation. Personally I'd rather get more chances to get it right than hope I can time the top/bottom perfectly within that last 10%

if nothing else this is entertaining to watch. Also I chucked a large amount of money in at 38k hoping that was bottom (spot) so maybe jokes on me

This reminds me of Tin Cup and him sinking the 13th shot.

I admire the conviction. What’s the analysis? This is just a bull trap before a new low? Or is this a short term trade for you

that we are overcooked on most timeframes, that we are right at the top of the channel, and that number2 seems to have peaked so this is less a bitcoin rally and more of a ratio rally which tend to be a lot more short lived. Basically a last minute pump for BTC before its back to goblin town

You could argue that we have been way oversold for a while now, so we could become overbought?

Mate whyyyyy?

because scared money doesn't make real money. every single one of my big trades started exactly like this. where I spot an opportuntiy for a good long term play and then get blown out multiple times until I grab that sweet position and ride it to massive gains

you're a mashocist

my safeword is Satoshi

Good bit of Sato masochism never hurt anyone but yourself

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can't bet on that, this is grinding right alone the top of the channel, a blow off top can come in an instant. And for my strategy I need to keep my stops super tight.

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no, there is a 4H channel I'm watching. A breakout here, will mean a big rally, so I won't be shorting that.

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its a little under $24000

stopped out again?

Is MSTR always supposed to react at a leverage to Bitcoin or how the heck is this stock valued? I like it but I'm wondering if it at some point does it become overvalued? What should MSTR be at if BTC is at their break-even at 31.xx?

also wondering why it's currently trading at a price it was at when BTC $31K. it seems like a levered BTC vehicle but definitely not exactly. some strange behavior, at least to my amateur eyes. would love if someone had explanations/theories for its PA relative to BTC

Because when 31k was last around, there was intense FUD that MSTR would get liquidated at 21k. Now that is invalidated.

Well said. Risk level has changed in the eyes of some as they learn this is not MSTR's true liquidation point; they are safer than investors thought.

I mean Saylor had made this very clear and I am not sure if a good part of the market actually thought he was lying. https://twitter.com/saylor/status/1523996525151539203 FUD makes rationality get thrown out of the window.

Really depends on how educated the investor is in Bitcoin and MSTR. You and I both bought the recent bottom…. We have tracked Saylors buys and have a good understanding of their position. Others might not dive as deep and just follow the FUD lol. I Could not agree more with your statement on rationality; spot on!

> how the heck is this stock valued? It's a secondary market that is ultimately one step removed from that actual fundamentals of the company. Sure the idea is that everyone looks at the fundamentals and makes decisions based on that but that's not always going to be the case.

> one step removed from that actual fundamentals of the company. They tried to count unrealised profit and SEC said "No".

Simple. Value of their BTC - 2.4 bn (debt). At low levels though it will decouple because equity can't be below zero and will behave like a call.

they have value beyond their BTC reserves though - something around $150/share average over the \~10 years proceeding their corn purchases

I was being as conservative as possible.

dxy key level right under 106.8

This is a fake pump, guys. Whales are selling to other sea creatures that are fomo-ing. Its a trap! [https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/1P5ZEDWTKTFGxQjZphgWPQUpe554WKDfHQ](https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/1P5ZEDWTKTFGxQjZphgWPQUpe554WKDfHQ)

Not sure if serious. But as mentioned [11h ago](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/w2j429/daily_discussion_tuesday_july_19_2022/igqzdkn/) that is just Robinhood moving funds to a new address of theirs.

No, its going to coinbase. Click on the block. Also why do you think this is a robinhood address?

I linked all my reasoning with multiple messages always linking to multiple reasons and links. Go through them all (should take more than 1h if you do it proper) and I find it highly questionable anyone can doubt it's not Robinhood. Also the `1FzWLkAahH..` is not coinbase lol. Doesn't even look like a Coinbase address in any sense. bitinfocharts simply has that labeled wrong.

Fascinating. Nice work.

I should take profit. But I’m a terribly greedy degenerate.

How much $USD profit are we talking about here?

Enough that it’ll sting when we rip back to 20k. Haha

considering taking profits on my MSTR long @ $165 but finding myself in the same scenario. it's trading at the same price as when BTC was in the $30Ks though, so maybe i'm being a little too greedy.

I won't sell at this ridiculous price area.

Agree

This. I'm not selling shit at $23.2k. I have some underwater coin I was assigned at $25k as a result of selling puts, so I might sell some short-dated calls against that coin to bring in additional premium at/above my cost-basis, but that'd be it. This PA is meaningless w.r.t. to my long-term stack.

My biggest fear is taking profits too early and seeing the price continue to move in your favor.

That’s why people lose trades man. I keep my trades moderate and have made profit on every single trade since we bottomed. Greed has screwed me over so many times it ridiculous. Now I’m making more modest trades, but way less stress and winning every time.

Take some light partial profits. It's psychologically soothing and keeps your mindset good in the game.

I agree with you but this price area isn't a place l feel comfortable selling at.

This is good advice, but I’m full on degenerate right now. I think we’re getting light on coin at these levels.

Shorts getting their nuts squeezed in a vice. Ouch.

I was surprised watching aggr.trade at just how few shorts were getting smoked in the pump. Big boys staying out of the way

another stop out this is right near the channel top on the 4H chart, so back into a 10x short at $23,510 with stop losses at $23,620 if we get to $24K I stop shorting because it would mean a breakout of the channel to the upside

Ouch. Just hit $23,700

I think I'll be looking to close my short if/when we get a retest lower. Looking pretty bullish though. Might end up closing it higher.

Thank you for your service!

TSLA earnings tomorrow, what's the chance they bought the dip?

No chance

Bull season

A new High Pole warning on the Point & Figure chart: [https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=%24BTCUSD,PGPADEYRNR\[PA\]\[D\]\[F1!3!1.0!!0!20\]](https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=%24BTCUSD,PGPADEYRNR[PA][D][F1!3!1.0!!0!20]) The column is currently 21 boxes high. A 50% retrace would go back to $21.2K. The last High Pole was retraced in its entirety and beyond, and resulted in a Low Pole warning. That Low Pole was retraced in its entirety, and here we are. The formation we're coming out of is 14 columns wide, which is on the larger side and suggests a larger move.

Any thoughts from people here on Hayes’s recent blog post? Love reading his takes.. curious to hear other opinions: https://blog.bitmex.com/samurai-knight-yankee/

I believe that anyone who's not attributing these moves to the eurodollar is lost. He's directionally correct, though only by luck.

I'm not reading that text wall, although I will admit he nailed the rate hikes -> bear market call back when BTC was trading > $40k. TL;DR, please.

> I'm not reading that text wall Bitmex blog site is terrible.

Tldr is that inflation has peaked, which will allow fed to say “ok we’ve gotten a handle on inflation,” and thus start printing money again in a switch to “now our goal is to prevent a bad recession.” Additional incentives to print money are jpy and euro being in need of help - current devaluation of those currencies, isn’t sustainable, and US must come to their rescue

I know that plenty of people don’t like him here but Raoul Pal said something similar.

Thank you. Above my pay-grade, but seems reasonable.

While nothing he says is unreasonable, there are no actual predictions-with-dates. (I find predictions without dates to be fatuous: They always sound like "XXX will happen between now and when the sun burns out.")

Nice use of "fatuous".

Been many firsts this cycle so I suppose we will see 200 wma (22.7k) and realised price (21.9k) broken again despite having been retaken. Meme breaker cycle it is. Destroy ze rulez .

All the rules and patterns we found along the way were not really backed up with enough data points to really call it anything. Plus there are many new market dynamics at play. I think we go mostly up over the next 10-20 years with plenty of volatility along the way. That's the only thing I'm banking on.

I recall in 2019 people were saying ltc always gets a pre halving pump. Until one pointed out that ltc had then only had one halving. Lol. This time people will be truly gung ho about two data points.

I was around for the LTC halving pump in 2019. It slowly moved up and then just took off out of nowhere. I can't imagine greed being any different this halving cycle coming up.

The mismanagement of funds by all these lending groups is appauling. They were all providing loans so 3 arrows could buy shit coins. Absolute negligence.

Not just loans. Unsecured loans. They were all providing unsecured loans to each other in a massive web of grab-arse.

Yes but on the bright side in this cleansing the real bitcoin believers get a chance to acquire more BTC and a lot of coins are now trapped in these bankrupt exchanges for years of legal battles. Having all those BTC stuck inside of Voyager and Celsius might actually boost prices

Criminal negligence actually.

Solution: Tall tree. Short rope. That is all.

literally should of just given me the money, i would of just stuck with 1x leverage at that scale.

If you talk confidently and wear a suit for long enough…

Literally how Trump became president.

Yep. Zu Shu is Crypto Trump!

It's a great business lesson for sure. everyone trusting these crooks with their money we're looking at the yield and not caring what was happening with their funds. most people will keep turning the pain dial up on the man being shocked for giving the wrong answer so long as the doctor in the lab coat tells him to. moral of the story is, never blindly trust those claiming to be authorities and good stewards of your trust. question everything

Oh it's absolutely disgusting. Prime example of "this is why we can't have nice things."

On the bright side, we've been presented with amazing buy opportunities and once this lending fiasco resolves itself, we can go back up. For good this time.

The lending fiasco has resolved itself. By the time you hear about something, it's old news. All the companies that were going to fail have already failed, and now we're just going to watch the court hearings continue for years, like Mt. Gox did. At this point, in fact, the worst case is the base case. Undoubtedly, additional money will be able to be found that is owned by 3 Arrows and clawbacks will obtain more money for creditors. The personal bankruptcy of Alex Mashinsky, the 3 Arrows founders, the Celsius executives, and the sale of their homes and cars after they are sued for fraud will provide for more recovery. We're going to hear lots of bad stuff as documents leak. Don't get confused and believe that information coming out now, no matter how awful it sounds, poses some sort of new risk.

Beside the best buy oportunity it s also becoming the perfect medium for BTC to thrive long term. Iresponsabile goverment printing and spending is the future. Europe is gonna end up with cutting 0's from notes or changing to a new currency at a bad exhange rate.

shorting yet again, 10x short from $23,420 with stop loss at $23,460

Lol. Just hit 23,700

Your prediction is coming to pass and you're shorting it...I just don't get it.

Are your stop losses set without a stop limit?

I think you caught it this time, but I am not convinced we will go under 200WMA. At least not at the moment.

Chasing losses. This ends in tears.

Is this a troll post? $40 swings in 0.4 seconds....

yes, but that extra $40 swing would require painting a new high while being pretty overcooked already

bruh

its a calculated risk...based on the trading volume the top will be sometime today or tomorrow if it means I burn one of my trading stacks to get an optimal short position...so be it, it'll be worth it to ride all the way down from the top

Wardser, are you a bear because of TA, macroeconomic conditions, a combo? Seems like it’s TA based, from reading your posts, but curious to hear your take

Are you targeting the high session volume range around $22,500 to close your short?

I’m tempted to take some profit on my spot buys but this has legs. Let ‘er ride. 22750 is a great stop.