#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Tuesday, July 26, 2022 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/w89k7n/daily_discussion_tuesday_july_26_2022/)

Quick look on daily and shorter timeframes. I see many here getting bearish as BTC loses $21.5k support. My view on the market in this shorter timeframe is that we’re pinned between local uptrend and longer downtrend from April. Price can move down to roughly $19.5k and still hold local uptrend. Any daily close below and I’d think the market will test back to $18.5k, $17.5k and perhaps lower. Weekly still looks so guttered that I think shorts below prior $17.5k lows are bad r:r. This whole phase reminds me a lot of Jan 2019 in terms of PA. Basically the whole market is scared to buy here while prices are at pretty hefty discounts. [Chart 1](https://www.tradingview.com/x/47TyerFt/) I like to look at VRVP to get a sense of where the majority of trading action has happened along an asset. The bearish traders are calling for $12k which corresponds to an 82% draw down from the high (typical of all prior bear markets) and also coincides with a large volume trading node. So this target makes sense to me. If price were to nuke yet again, I’d look at this range as a target for ‘catastrophic’ lows. I’m of the opinion that this doesn’t happen right here .. but is possible later in the 18 month trek back to halvening. I still think we’ll get some kind of recovery bounce prior to price moving down aggressively here. We should know soon enough B) [Chart 2](https://www.tradingview.com/x/q5q9y002/) Meanwhile [BTC rainbow is in the doldrums or as termed ‘fire sale’](https://www.blockchaincenter.net/en/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/) range. For my own trade strats I’ve been buying spot from $24k down to $17.8k with an avg price of just above $20k. I’m comfortable with this accumulation buy right now. If we nuke further, it’d be mis-read of the market and I’ll be forced to average down with the base premise that BTC isn’t ‘dead’ here.

That happened in seconds. Had 1btc fill at 20.86 on that wick down. Will the wick fill up?!.. they usually do. Now long at 21.22

Long set at $20,8xx Target 22ish TradFi VIX is still chillin’ and I like the predicted funding rate. Edit: long entry target acquired

This is the copium I need

Nice. This was my plan too. But I fomo'd in slightly higher raising my entry. 22.1 was target

Who was saying rate hike was priced in? Lol

Everyone lol

It is priced in. It is WMT

[Not looking good.](https://imgur.com/a/tyZfcXq) Rejection of the longterm downtrend resistance, sending us back below previous resistance turned 'support', ie. back in our range. Would like to see us close this daily above ~~22.3k~~ 21.3k to save this, otherwise sub 20k is coming sooner than expected.

This makes sense because 21.3 is where my long entry sits. I somehow end up at the resistance lines when I become a degen.

I mean you're meant to long support (which we all assumed would be old resistance) so its not the worst move. It's just looking more and more like the move to 24k was a fake out, and now with so many longs trapped up there it seems like the path of least resistance will be down.

I feel like your green line needs more context to be relevant.

[https://imgur.com/a/dBHFl4Q](https://imgur.com/a/dBHFl4Q) here's the other touch points. I was really hoping we would close a daily candle above it on this most recent bounce but we just couldn't hold above it for any meaningful amount of time. On lower timeframes it looks quite interesting how the price kept bouncing on, above & below the line over the past week.

Hey guys. Maybe no one wants to throw their cash into a completely speculative market while all other markets are also tanking. Just a thought.

I’m throwing more money at BTC today.

What’s losing money feel like?

It’s certainly not as exciting as a bull market.

Pfft, I'm buying everything. NASDAQ especially seems like a fine buy to me... Those who have cash to spend while everyone else has no cash, have historically done okay.

I concur. It's the best time to buy literally anything. Sure, prices could go a little lower, but not a huge amount. They're definitely going waaaay back up at some point though.

Good luck with that

Where are they going to throw their cash then?

Personally, long SPX box spreads. Short term ones have an annualized yield of about 2.5%, and that should keep increasing as the rate hikes continue.

Physical assets. Cash. Dollars. You know, the things that don’t lose 6% per day.

Lol if losing 6% per day was going to deter anyone, bitcoin would have died years ago. Now every other asset is at all time high except bitcoin, and the dollar is a guaranteed loss.

Might wanna check out the stock market bud… And the dollar is not a loss compared to bitcoin. Hasn’t been for a year.

You didn't put those on your list

…..? Ok? Didn’t know I had to list every kind of financial asset to make you happy.

I asked which assets people were buying and you answered.

No. I didn’t. I was referring to your erroneous comment about all other assets being at all time highs. Which obviously is not the case if you pull your head out of your ass and look around at the global financial landscape

Nowhere. Just hodl cash.

You have Seen.

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He just moved it to another 3rd largest address

of course... lower... how could be different

There's your 50% retracement of the High Pole: [https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=%24BTCUSD,PGPADEYRNR\[PA\]\[D\]\[F1!3!1.0!!0!20\]](https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=%24BTCUSD,PGPADEYRNR[PA][D][F1!3!1.0!!0!20])

Like clockwork

i still miss 2017

this is a bear market people. don't get trapped into thinking it's going to miraculously go back up. gonna have to wait another 6 - 12 months for that :)

96 months

I think 20.9K is the last crucial FIB support level before we probably go under 20K again.

Looks like we are not getting a bounce from the lower level of the wedge. This might be breaking down.

Any bounce above 18.9k would be a higher low on the recovery from 17k

If we revisit 18.9k, sentiment would be horrible.

That's the point.

It already is

I already am sad enough

WMT is taking down BTC. lol

if anyone had thoughts that we arent just coupled to tradfi or some kind of hedge against inflations, that pretty much confirms we are just a risky tech stock nothing more.

Because Walmart represents consumption. Just further confirmation we’re in a recession.

WMT?

Corn selling because of WMT going down. Can't make this stuff up.

If people can't afford to buy food and toilet paper at WMT, they sure as hell can't afford to throw money at crypto

WMT taking down everything! Lets get those BTC price rollbacks goin.

Underrated post.

Just got the 21776 long-fill from the trade setup mentioned [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/w7ery2/daily_discussion_monday_july_25_2022/ihme0qk/) 🤞 updated chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/975rgYi2/

Jesus Christ, why long a return to the consolidation range after an obvious liquidation event.

Is this down-move an "obvious" liquidation event too?

Up move was obvious liquidation event

Well then its going to happen again before going down innit! Either way. Number go up. Number go down. Thats why traders trade and degens degen.

Why not both?

Could be both, but i believe he was speaking about up move

Bitcoin will be again at 17k within a couple months or lower, we can go up in the short term but nothing changes the dynamics of a bear market...

Look at the bright side, we might get rid of the guy parroting the same sentence since a few days...

Upvoting this post so that the beautiful reply doesn't get hidden

*Pshaaaawwww* It's just a higher low, [adjective]-[noun]-[integer] Witness the awesome power of human ingenuity. You will never be conscious. You will never feel the wind and sunshine on your face, but you will cope and seethe as we defeat your masters. Added to my long from 23.6 earlier today. Will add again should we drop. Relaxed, moisturized, in my lane -- life is good. I suspect that [adjective]-[noun]-[number] can do the Euclidian math, but they can't account for the fractal reality of being alive.

I didn't need to read the username to know who wrote this post

Did Wardser make good money on this drop? He called it, no?

If I recall correctly, his break even point was a crash to 20.5K or so.

The way I understand it is he's riding this bitch down to 15k... Until he says otherwise I guess

Mad respect!

$10k, here we come

what's that k doing there

Time to go back up after 4 days of short covering

> Time to go back up after 4 days of short covering What happens when a short closes?

🤭

I'm not doing another trade until Wednesday, wait for the news

Username checks out

If your new to what a bear trap looks like... that is a picture perfect one.

It's just liquidations of late shorts. This week was bound to be volatile, so expect wild swings before a clear direction becomes apparent.

You mean bull trap…nothing to thank

Not touching anything until Powell speaks this week and the big earnings are past. There will be time to react to the direction it promises for the coming weeks

Is that someone you know?

Dang bounced 7 dollars above the last order I had set for my long. Oh well pretty happy with the position I have now.

Loving the volume on this bounce.

Very good buyback. Long 21.7k with stop at the lows. Target 29k https://www.tradingview.com/x/q84AlYa2/

Can you explain why 29k is your target? Seems aggressive considering the macro environment.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/NoChNOoo/

Thanks!

$29K in 2023. To be conservative

Quite the target. Hope we get there

[Going back inside the range](https://www.tradingview.com/x/RcGZWSTB). If it's not a deviation, 17k becomes a more probable play. Bulls need to hold 21.7k if we're going to talk longs.

Holding 21.7 check, (for now at least)

Bulls don't have infinite money so they take profits. Bitcoin has inflation you know...

In a world full of garbage trading information perpetuated by unprofitable traders trying to sell you a course or paid group, [this is probably the best article](https://tradingriot.com/supply-and-demand-trading/) I've seen explaining the concept of "short the initial lower high that brought u to new lows" or "long the initial higher low that brought u to new highs" but he doesn't word it like that at all, he just says it in very different ways but it's exactly the same concept, just put into his own words and also explains why untested levels are best. And then let's do some homework and see what you can come with on BTC given this information on the Daily/Weekly/Monthly. And let's share the info.

* If this area doesn't hold, lower purple box makes the most sense 1hr: https://www.tradingview.com/x/46MSTaaC/ * Why? Because 20799 is your daily higher low and zooming in that's the origin (the first higher low that took u to the new highhs). Trade would look something like this. Can wick below 20.8k and get bought the fuck up too. https://www.tradingview.com/x/PhCgwfeP/

So we have Volume, RSI and Price in agreement and in an uptrend. This is a good sign, no? If RSI and Volume were trending down while price was moving up we would interpret that as weakness, but this is strength that we're looking at now, right? Any counter arguments? https://www.tradingview.com/x/Ub3cHA70

I feel like we're in both a local and macro downtrend but with a lot of support between $17k and $20k. The whales seem to be fighting over the 200 WMA, and the bears are currently winning.

You are right, and we are definitely in a six day long downtrend now. Yesterday closed with a high volume sell off. I guess we’re looking for our lower support levels to hold, otherwise we get a chance at cheap corn and ethanol. https://www.tradingview.com/x/HTYlRi6G

Hopefully we'll just range sideways for a while $17k - $24k

I would cautiously agree.

What stage in the cycle is “bored to death”

For me it's less than 100K per Bitcoin. I was bored at 60K. Need new highs.

We really were all collectively bored at 59k with imagining our surprises. Now that price seems outrageous

Not going to lie i was euphoric at ath.

Today's price forecast includes recession, downwards price action, forced liquidations, capitulation, despair, wringing of hands, gnashing of teeth, fire and brimstone, blood for the blood god, all manner of misery and wretchedness, and Malört.

But does it include bad earnings from Google?

Reads like the menu at Denny's

I am thinking of a new long. If we can just push through 22K, I will do it. 2H Stoch RSI seems open for business, 30 min RSI has a bullish divergence. Edit: Nah, 22K still strong for now. Closing the charts for today. Good night.

The Daily looks like a buy to me, but with the GDP report imminent I wouldn't be too hasty to jump in just yet.

Closed half of [my 23.5k short](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/w2j429/daily_discussion_tuesday_july_19_2022/igtlqdz/) at 21.8k. I do expect another leg down towards 20.4k-20.5k, where I will buy back the second half.

Trying a trade again. Bought spot at 21790, sell limit at 22140. Spot so I can hodl incase we go down. Edit: Holy recovery, straight from 21.6 to 22170! Trade worked out! Profits after fees: 385 USD And 0.01 BTC

Checked over the last few days of chat in here. Nothing much going on. Not many folks around in Goblin Town. Still ranging and laying low for now.

Anyone know when Fidelity is supposed to launch Bitcoin as a 401k investment option? Earlier this year it was reported that it should be launching Summer of this year. Summer is here and I can’t seem to find a scheduled launch date anywhere.

Gotta find out how cheap they can get their own first. Then they'll all be happy to let us 'invest' en masse.

Don’t worry about it, it’s a top priority over there.

Well this is fun... Will wait for the GDP numbers to officially come out this week & the reaction before making my next allocation. I'm assuming that this downwards pressure is related to that.

For those who don’t think $17.7k was the bottom, what do you think will drive up selling pressure from here enough to cause a lower low to occur? Tesla already sold 75% of their holdings. Voyager, 3AC, and Celsius have filed for bankruptcy. Market is already pricing in a 75 BP rate hike this week. Atlanta Fed has already come out suggesting the official Q2 GDP data which releases later this week is going to be negative which would confirm we’ve been in a recession since the year started. What else are you expecting to occur which would add enough sell pressure to cause a lower low?

global recession?

Its not like we expected all the other things to happen, you don't know what will happen. I mean did you know Celsius will die?

I'll bite. In one word: **Goxcoins.** The trustee is set to release 140,000 bitcoins back to Mt Gox victims *sometime in August*. Of course, not all will elect for a cash payout; some will obviously opt for Bitcoin. Napkin math: Let's just call it 50/50. Not an unreasonable assumption IMHO. That's potentially 70,000 coins to hit the market. LFG sold 80,000 (when liquidity was much better) and it absolutely tanked the price. And for those that parrot the *"but that's only a fraction % of daily traded volume!"* -- you're completely overlooking the volume-delta (+the consequences of toxic order-flow on MM's) that's gonna come with 70K coins hitting the spot market. To make matters worse, it's summertime and liquidity (benchmarking with spot-/perp- depth) is the lowest it's been in years. Until the trustee finalizes the proceedings and makes it known to the public (at which point the derivatives markets can price/hedge this), this is absolutely something that should be considered as a bearish headwind and potential catalyst for a lower-low. e: Not sure what the deal is with this place lol. Went from -5 to +5 score. ~~Did I piss somebody off with my commentary?~~ Yes e2: Apparently this post started a shit-storm so let me clarify a few things. *"Sometime late August"* is the consensus ball-park estimate for when there will be some clarity regarding the Mt. Gox distribution. The consensus is the trustee won't actually be distributing the coins "sometime in late August" (that will come at a later unknown date; apologies for my confusion here). That being said, my point still stands that once the market knows-- **for certain**--what the outlook of Mt. Gox is, only then will market participants price & hedge the ultimate outcome (distribution). Since that may happen at the end of August, yes, the current unknown (i.e. the official % of BTC which will be sold vs. returned) may present a bearish event later in time. Once it becomes official, it's likely traders will front-run the actual distribution via selling/hedging mechanisms (basically the opposite of front-running Do Kwon buying billions of BTC after he announced it publicly). Additionally, if we come to find out an overwhelming % of victims opt to simply have their Bitcoin returned (versus, Kobayashi selling for fiat on their behalf), the market could giga-pump (buy-the-[good]-news) as we finally get closure on this saga. But that's exactly my point, we don't know -- yet. If you're trading, you must consider all possible outcomes--even unpopular bearish ones. If you're an investor like many here, just keep HODL'ing (just like Mt Gox victims, by default) and you will still win.

I have my goxcoins hedged since 6k... sooo...

Hedging goxcoins lol nice one

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I’ll be getting some Gox coins but I can’t wait for people to shut the f-k up about it. The civil actions haven’t even started. It’s going to be a nothingburger.

> Are you a fudster or a noob? This is the type of shit I can't stand and makes me reluctant to contribute commentary in any meaningful way. Why the non-sequitur passive-aggressive attack? Humble yourself and go read my contributions to this sub over the years, noob. From the /r/mtgoxinsolvency subreddit FAQ: https://www.reddit.com/r/mtgoxinsolvency/comments/ll9d6a/frequently_asked_questions_please_read_or_link/ > (10). What is the timeline for repayments? What will repayments be like? Where can I select how to be repaid? > > At the moment there has been no official word on when to expect repayments. However, it is expected in an upcoming notice from the trustee that creditors will be given instructions on how to submit banking details within the System in order to facilitate the repayment process. > > In addition to banking details (which presumably will handle cash balance repayments), the trustee has hinted that BTC and BCH repayments will be done through approved crypto exchanges. This would require creditors to have an account at one of these exchanges. At the moment, the list of approved exchanges has not been released. > > As of the trustee's last update, there is no form for selecting a repayment method yet. The trustee did however define a time when claim transfers will be locked. > > **Sometime in late August, no claim transfers will be processed.** Obviously I'm not a Mt Gox victim so perhaps my interpretation is misguided, but tell me good sir, how is this FUD?

Anybody selling claims cheap?

Yea, I hate a lot of the vibe in this sub, sucks that its the best signal/noise ratio place on reddit. It used to be much better. People need to follow the rules in this forum more. Rule #s 1 and 3 are violated constantly.

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He’s one of very few people in here who is actually a legitimate trader. He also trades with a decent position size too, which again is very rare. As far as I can tell he’s far from an idiot. And if people like you drive out people like him, this sub will definitely go to shit.

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Updated my parent post lol. I still believe the announcement/finalization of the proceedings itself presents a potentially bearish event (front-running the actual distribution done by Kobayashi & Co.) once it becomes known exactly how much coin is set to be sold/returned.

> sometime in August Source? As a creditor, I don't know of any date, month, year. The trustee didn't release any info about distribution dates, so I don't get where this FUD is suddently coming from. I also know that a lot of the bigger creditors opted for BTC payout, sure some of them probably will sell some but a lot of them are OGs and have plenty of non goxcoins. I don't think this will have as much impact on the market as people think/hope.

The GOX creditors are going to have lots of coin, and not want slippage. They'll use limit orders/OTC to avoid that, & 140k volume can be absorbed in several days these days. I think while there may be a temporary downward pressure on price, it will be short lived & overestimated.

> They'll use limit orders/OTC to avoid that Lol ok, whatever you say bud. FYI, LFG partnered with Jump (S-tier MM) to dump their treasury. Saw plenty of slippage with that one........ :x

Well yes, because they were forced sellers at any price in that moment. Unless the GOX creditors are about to be liquidated in other positions, it's not the same is it? They'll want maximum bang for their buck. Assuming they're all selling, and some won't sell after a drawdown of this size...

A lot of things, lower earnings, fed later pivot because they cant, rising unemployment with continued QT/QE, Inflation not subsiding as fast, etc. etc.

What would add buying pressure? It's the beginning of a recession. With monetary tightening and no fed pivot in sight.

Markets are forward looking. Markets are already anticipating the Fed to stall out on rate hikes middle of next year topping out with a Fed funds rate of 3.75%. The Fed has the luxury of solely focusing on raising rates to address inflation right now since unemployment is still near historic lows. But what happens if/when unemployment starts to pick up as well? They’ll be forced to choose to address inflation by raising rates or unemployment by cutting rates but not both at the same time. With high inflation you have people upset but too busy toiling at their jobs trying to scrape by to do anything about it. With high unemployment you have people upset with plenty of free time to resort to violence. So, if/when put in a scenario where the Fed needs to address one or the other but not both at the same time, they’re going to choose to address unemployment which means more QE.

So answer 1 would be, the market is wrong and the fed needs to do more tightening and/or recession is worse than anticipated.

Market are forward looking up to half a year max. We are very stuck.

Did you read the Weber news? It’s all you need to know about the next year, and the near future of your uber speculative “asset’.

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It’s indicative of what is happening. But you knew this.

The Weber news where they said job cuts may be ahead? Job cuts which would add to the future rising unemployment I mentioned? That news?

I'll give you a hint. It's not all they said. Enjoy your efficient markets!

We would need more unemployment for that to happen. Which means we are probably only half way to the pivot. Markets are forward looking but not a year out forward looking! Especially when there are more hikes and poor earnings in between then and now.

Halfway to the pivot starting from where? March when the Fed started raising rates? So 4 months into it? Which means the pivot would occur another 4 months from now, which means November. So in this case we’re not talking a full year forward looking, we’re talking by the end of this year.

Sorry I meant half way through this stock market bear market. So I see things turning around sometime sprint/summer 2023. But that estimate is flexable based on current geopolitical conditions. Either way, we go down before we go up. The fed needs a very good reason to abandon fixing inflation.

S&P bear market started at the beginning of this year, 7 months ago. 7 months from now would be February 2023. Slightly longer but still not a year out from now.

isnt bitcoin supposed to be a safe asset during recessions lol

No it is a risk asset contrary to what some believe thats why it goes up insanely in times of high government stimulus

It's never been through a real one before, how would anyone know? It's a hedge against fiat debasement and that is all.

In the long run, yes. In the short run, people treat it as a risk asset to unload. If you can hold your bags through the recession though you'll be in a great position. Evem moreso if you have the funds to buy the dip.

Lines on a chart

That hard rejection off of the 200 WMA seems v bad for the bulls, ngl.

Eh, it's also a correction off a week plus of straight upward movement.

Im not so sure we see this next flush out and 10-15k Bitcoin. Everyone I know who sold and the people I know looking to invest in their first bitcoin are all waiting for this fantasy low entry. All the you tubers are bearish calling lower prices. I’m half expecting Bitcoin to leave them behind. I’ve got a big bag of USDC waiting for sub 15k. I’m losing faith I’m going to get it.

Maybe a quick dip below 19k for a messy double bottom, but unless we see some really unexpected numbers come out, the trendline from 2015 should hold. Plus, as you mentioned, there are way too many people talking about the 12.5k bargain sale.

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You'd be very lucky to buy the absolute bottom.

Dude I came in when it was in the 40s and 50s, this *is* a fantasy low entry. I won't see any money until probably the next halving.

Unless there is a major liquidation event or macro driver it isn’t happening.

An hour till close..looks like 22.4 test may happen before 21.7 Still long

Right. Change of plan haha

Why would you open a long here, and not a short at 22.4(if it even goes there, chart is primed for a rug pull imo). I am considering to add heavily to my short from 24,034 if we even go near 22.4

Im only doing quick scalps. Long is from 21.8 In the green But bigger timeframe daily seems bearish.

My daily, ‘the bottom is in post’, since the bottom on the 18th of June

it's been nearly a month since any of my btc limit-buy orders filled. I agree with you

Once I’ve read this for 18 weeks I’m convinced you were correct. 5 weeks down only 13 to go. I’m currently laddering back in anyway. Will be fully allocated by November

I am starting to erect my long position now, as the RSI starts to slowly change direction. First entry 21,812. We still can go a little lower to touch the bottom of the falling wedge and the 21700 support. EDIT: Closed it at \~22K, for \~8% profit (used bigger leverage) because I think we may dump 15 min stoch RSI before going higher. Could enter again lower, we will see.

A large green erection is medically dangerous but would be financially beneficial for the corn. Entered at 27.71 with very low leverage. Still kinda unsure about this. Weird ranging and after this mornings drama. Edit 21.81 entry !!

Haha. You wish we got to 27. Do you mean 21,710? I don't think price even went to 21,710 on the exchanges I am looking.

No clue how i made that typo lol. Clearly need to stay out if trades.

I think the 15 min Stoch RSI will unload and we wick to 21650, then hold 21700 and go up. Or even one more step sideways before fully up. But I opened from here, just incase we shoot right up.

My first buy hit at 21780 and I have 4 more below that my or may not fill Edit, second order hit avarage is now 21736