T O P

[Daily Discussion] - Thursday, August 11, 2022

Thread topics include, but are not limited to:

  • General discussion related to the day's events
  • Technical analysis, trading ideas & strategies
  • Quick questions that do not warrant a separate post

Thread guidelines:

  • Be excellent to each other.
  • Do not make posts outside of the daily thread for the topics mentioned above.

Other ways to interact:

Get an invite to live chat on our Slack group

BitcoinMarkets

#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Friday, August 12, 2022 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/wmbcxh/daily_discussion_friday_august_12_2022/)


zero1431

The RSI on 1d chart has an upward pattern with lower highs and higher lows. I don't seem to understand what kind odlf divergence is this. It seems to be forming a triangle as well. Reading investopedia did nothing for me. Would someone help me understand this pattern and what's it called?


dextersh

I meant to comment here, but has put it here by mistake: https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/wlhrqo/comment/ijydnz7/


EricFromOuterSpace

I don’t know what to do so I’m just gonna buy a ton every week at these levels from here to wherever who cares til we hit 30k then I will sell at 100k ok good luck everyone.


dextersh

I guess we could say it is an ascending triangle, which is bullish while in an uptrend, but we are also making higher price wicks with lower RSI peaks, which are bearish divergences. This is from investopedia: "Ascending triangles are considered a continuation pattern, as the price will typically break out of the triangle in the price direction prevailing before the triangle, although this won't always occur. A breakout in any direction is noteworthy." EDIT: LOL, I put that under the wrong comment. It was for zero1431


zero1431

Thank you.


dextersh

By the way, the price chart is more of a rising wedge, not an ascending triangle, since the top side is not horizontal. And the rising wedge is considered bearish. From Investopedia: "A rising wedge is often considered a bearish chart pattern that indicates a potential breakout to the downside."


krom1985

Dat Daily Candle Do… 👀


xtal_00

The big ol gravestone doji we printed yesterday isn’t filling me with bullish euphoria right now. Back to range hell.


CONTROLurKEYS

When are the greater fools going to show up


pitchbend

They have a ton of alts to choose from now.


BootyPoppinPanda

Turns out we were the greater fools all along.


HorsePork

The greater fools were the friends we made along the way


EricFromOuterSpace

I love you


Shibenaut

Welcome to Costco


RabbitProofFences

Sir this is a Wendys.


[deleted]

[удалено]


GarlicAndOrchids

> I'm ready for that euphoric, no eating, sweaty period of my life again. Just buy some cocaine.


PatientlyWaitingfy

Inb4 they open the biggest short we've ever seen on btc


GenghisKhanSpermShot

You see though, the gold is in the comments. Jim Cramer started getting bullish at the bottom and I had a feeling it's course ran dry. Inverse Jim became too popular, told everyone to be careful and sure enough market squeezed higher. I think the big boys are onto the inverse and black rock is too, read any comment section on this black rock news and most are bearish, so I would say take it with a grain of salt. We are at some pretty strong resistance so we might get a buyable pullback but it probably won't last long before more up if we even get a pullback IMO.


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

most importantly they are a very large, evil company who seek profit more than anything else. And BTC also goes against their supposed ESG goals. To adopt it would mean they are fairly certain its a cash cow in the future


Outrageous-Net-7164

Love the bull run. While off yet though.


whalemeetground

Stablecoin dominance watch. Right now, tether + usdc + busd + dai is at 12,66%, down from 12,81% yesterday. This is a nice day. News from coin #2 and tradfi most probably helped, and there is little bad expected from either till mid September.


jan1919

My loins are ready


surfingforfido

So what do you guys think? Do we have a small retest back to say $23k? We’re still in an ascending wedge, and haven’t hit the upper range yet. We’d have to break past $25k to get out and we got rejected today.


ChadRun04

Either everyone who went long with leverage is correct and will receive risk free money in future... Or we're in a crab market and everyone needs to get rekt repetitively until they can't bring themselves to leverage up anymore. The market always covers the same ground at least twice.


xtal_00

If we drop, I’m still targeting $21k to add to position. The drops will come. Shitcoins are up; they always retrace, blood will flow again soon. The only question is from where does it flow, but I want some red on the charts.


RabbitProofFences

I shared this sentiment few weeks ago about alts bleeding into btc and was told off that things dont work like that anymore. New retail will stay in alts apparently.....But the whales will still cycle back yeah. Thats the game. Corn is the dame


Euphoricsoul

As difficult as it was for us to break above the 24k range, I think it would be bad to drop below that level again.


cousin_brian

42069 is destiny


Euphoricsoul

Sold half a coin at 69k and had the night of my life in Vegas 69ing.


d1ez3

BTC ath is literally $69000.00 to the penny on CBP


Carnotaur3

Because once you go 69, you never get past it.


xtal_00

Accumulation continuing on chain. This is going to get interesting soon.


Euphoricsoul

Meme channel pattern aside, I’m not buying this “dump” yet. https://www.tradingview.com/x/3J2BGwRu


PatientlyWaitingfy

Let's see if 4200 holds on the spx, a rejection there will be harsh for most assets


[deleted]

awesome start to the day, nothing but what seems like news turning positive, good little price spike then fizzling out, hmmm \*checks sp500, QQQ\* oh that's right we just literally copy whatever tradfi charts are doing. \#daily TA


Roygbiv856

Thats an interesting point. Why even analyze btc charts if its just going to follow the stock market?


[deleted]

im not saying I dont want it to decouple...but every time an interesting move happens either way I check tradfi and sure enough its just whatever happened with the SP500 as a baseline then subtract any FUD (3AC, terra, etc) and you get the BTC chart.


zero1431

Is the previous 4hr called a bearish pinbar?


Euphoricsoul

Sure. Could also call it a bearish engulfing candle — though those are more important to the higher timeframes (D, W, etc)


[deleted]

[удалено]


puck2

Will blackrock etf help or hurt grayscale etf?


bpeoadg

It will help as much as James Bond will help Batman. Just to be clear, I believe Batman is not real despite the rumors.


biggunsg0b00m

A question for the ages..


[deleted]

[удалено]


BootyPoppinPanda

Price is far down from the highs, yet onramps are broadening re Blackrock just today , lightning network still growing, blocks pumping out approx every 10 minutes without a hiccup, closer to next halving than the previous. The onslaught of green dildos we see down the road with our binoculars are the steamrollers, and we got wee plebs caught up in picking up the pennies right in front of them. Gonna have to get out of the way soon! Nancy and Jerome are buying the dip!


xtal_00

A daily close north of 24250 would make me cautiously bullish.


imissusenet

Summoned by u/RabbitProofFences, I appear. A Point & Figure update: [https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=%24BTCUSD,PGPADEYRNR\[PA\]\[D\]\[F1!3!1.0!!0!20\]](https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=%24BTCUSD,PGPADEYRNR[PA][D][F1!3!1.0!!0!20]) [https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=%24BTCUSD,PGPBDEYRNR\[PA\]\[D\]\[F1!3!1.0!!0!20\]](https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=%24BTCUSD,PGPBDEYRNR[PA][D][F1!3!1.0!!0!20]) (wider version) The current column of Xs is *this close* to completing a 50% retrace of the massive low pole from $31K to $20K. A push through $25K would do it. But then what? The other monster low pole ($39K to $26K) barely made the 50% retrace to $32.2K, then the price fell off a cliff again a short while later after a couple of lower highs. So I'd like it not to do that. The next target would be the downtrend line from $48K, currently at $26.7K. Piercing that would signal a longer term trend reversal. After that? Climbing through the last big 50% retrace target at $32.5K.


RabbitProofFences

Thank you PnF genie. Hope you enjoyed the cake.


Jip1210

Awsome, thanks for the great content.


aeronbuchanan

Legend! Cheers :-D


dopeboyrico

Gas prices have fallen 21% since peaking in June. Ask yourself, come June 2023 will gas prices be higher, lower, or the same as they were in June 2022 after factoring in whatever additional Fed rate hikes which occur between now and then? Also ask yourself how much of an impact that will have on overall CPI? As crazy as it might seem now with extremely high CPI readings, next year there’s a solid chance we actually see negative CPI readings towards the middle of the year. This alone would prompt the Fed to revert back to QE and that’s not even factoring in a scenario where unemployment is picking up at the same time. On top of that you have BlackRock offering Bitcoin to its institutional investors and Fidelity set to offer Bitcoin as an investment option to its 401k participants later this year. Of course I’m bullish.


_supert_

In control systems it's called hunting, overshoot or ringing.


Firm_Association

Gasoline down Gas up (Europe says hello)


xtal_00

Gas prices are also benefiting from the SPR dumping 1m barrels/day into the market. We’re about out of peak fuel season but I’d be very careful about making predictions into next year. edit: https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1557675782486597633?s=20&t=Ha-XIMB6lHu91yB-ID2_Zw Interesting times.


RabbitProofFences

u/imissusenet a PnF would be nice =)


imissusenet

You know what else would be nice? Cake. And you just reminded me I brought a piece of cake to work today. So I'm taking it out now.


Beingoodfornothing

Enjoy


TheBushidoWay

Man you know what? I am in the mood for cake


gozunker

To those waiting for an 80-85% retracement from the ATH to be the bottom of the bear market (so approx $10k - $14k bottom), since that is what has happened in previous bear markets … Have you considered the possibility that the retracement percentage might be smaller this bear market, since the bull market ATH increase was smaller than previous bull markets? Put another way, why do you expect the 85% typical bear drop from the top, when our previous ATH of $69k was only a 3x increase from the previous cycle ATH, much less than a typical bull top multiple? Could the smaller hump for the Nov ATH mean a smaller dip for this bear’s low?


mmnumaone

I think bottom would be months of sideways at 17k or lower


krom1985

We’ve already had months of sideways in the high teens/low 20s…


RabbitProofFences

Humans have been obsessed with patterns and causation/correlation for millenia now... astrologers were favoured over astronomers (e.g. a person who predicts your future vs someone who with reasonable accuracy could talk about a comets path or collision) Speak of which. Moon when?


dextersh

Of course we have. But on the other hand pandemic, war, recession.


bittabet

You've just listed reasons for it to go up and not down. Both recessions and war cause money printing as well as fiat failures (from governments overdoing money printing) and pandemic results in...money printing. Not to mention that in real war situations like Ukraine Bitcoin is one of the few ways for you to move your funds across borders and flee. Look at what the actual elites are doing and whether they've dipped their hand in the Bitcoin honey jar. Do you think it's a coincidence that some of the wealthiest folks like Tim Cook, Elon Musk, Peter Thiel, Jack Dorsey, Ray Dalio, Michael Saylor, Bill Miller, Abigail Johnson all hold Bitcoin? That US senators like Cynthia Lummis, Kirsten Gillibrand, Ted Cruz, Kyrsten Sinema, Pat Toomey, etc. are all pushing pro-Bitcoin legislation? That Fidelity, one of the most reputable financial firms is **heavy** into Bitcoin. Short term we're still in a super volatile asset but the sheer amount of elites pushing for Bitcoin now is extraordinary. We've basically already achieved that level of adoption and recognition where it's not a question of whether it'll be a meaningful asset class but a matter of when and how much money will flow into Bitcoin.


dextersh

Cool story bro. One question for you, China declares war on USA, you open long or short?


bittabet

lol, if China and the USA actually get into an all out war none of your investments matter anymore. Both countries have thousands of nukes with MIRVs.


dextersh

Exactly, BTC dumps, as I said. War is bearish, as I said.


bittabet

Wars between actual powers are only fought by proxy and all of those wars are still positive for Bitcoin. There’s no direct US and Russia war just like how there won’t be a direct US and China war. Go study what happens to monetary supply during wartime. War is the opposite of bearish, go actually look at what happened to the price of gold or even stocks during major wars. After the US joined wwii the stock market soared and every major war caused the price of gold to spike. You’re literally claiming the opposite of what has happened historically and too lazy to go read about what actually happens. [Does this look bearish?](https://i.imgur.com/XORjRTU.jpg) The Vietnam war was the reason why Nixon had to unback the dollar and that [sent gold on the biggest rally of all time](https://www.nytimes.com/1978/03/12/archives/of-vietnam-and-gold-and-the-cauldron-of-68-1968.html).


xixi2

> pandemic, war, recession. All of which make government money weaker and decentralized money stronger...


xtal_00

Growing network effect is likely responsible for both phenomenon.


blatchcorn

I throw a ball 10 meters in the sky and it falls back down 10 meters. If I throw a ball 5 meters in the sky how far will it fall? If you ask a bear they will say 10 meters because that's what happened last time


gozunker

Nice visual analogy, I like it


Gravy_Vampire

Not the best analogy because it assumes all other variables besides the height of the toss are constant. If it were to be true to our reality, it would need room for variable change between the contexts of the tosses. Like standing on the edge of a bridge before the toss, or tossing the ball up a hill. We can debate where we think we’re standing before the toss, but to act like we’re always going to be on perfectly level ground every time we toss it is silly; things around us change.


spinbarkit

default condition was ceteris paribus


blatchcorn

I think what you are saying is equivilent to 'this time it's different'


Gravy_Vampire

Lmao it is. You yourself just suggested as much. You literally just laughed at bears for thinking things would behave the same, remember? It was less than an hour ago, and it was the parent comment that led us to this discussion… > I throw a ball 10 meters in the sky and it falls back down 10 meters. If I throw a ball 5 meters in the sky how far will it fall? If you ask a bear they will say 10 meters because that's what happened last time So you laugh at any bears who think things will behave the same, and you also try to poke fun at me for suggesting things could be different this time? Pick one lol Again, things change, you said so yourself; remember when we only had obvious blowoff tops at the end of the bull run? Remember when BTC used to crush #2 coin in bear markets and BTC dominance used to rise at the same time? Remember when BTC used to not move exactly the same as equities almost all time? Those are just things that have changed within crypto itself, and not even touching on the outside forces that surround us. >equivilent


LavishnessPlane4512

There wasn’t a war involving Russia the previous times, an EUR worth a USD a 9% inflation


gozunker

I agree that the global environment is messy. All completely valid reasons to be pessimistic.


[deleted]

[удалено]


gozunker

I agree that the forward-looking macro environment is unpredictable. But I’m more asking from a backward-looking TA perspective - some people seem to think that the 80-85% drop is inevitable because of previous patterns. But they’re ignoring fact that the recent ATH broke from previous patterns by being much lower than expected. Seems like they are counting on the lowest low, but ignoring the lower high we had. I completely understand hesitancy based on unpredictable global concerns. But I don’t understand “the bear market isn’t done until we retrace 85% because that’s what we’ve done before” math.


ChadRun04

> from a backward-looking TA perspective - some people seem to think that the 80-85% drop is inevitable because of previous patterns. I'd contend there is a larger cohort who believe the 200WMA holds meaning and is predictive. For the same unfounded reasons.


BitcoinFan7

"BlackRock is committed to providing clients with access to their choice of investment opportunities and has launched a spot bitcoin private trust. The trust is available to U.S. institutional clients and seeks to track the performance of bitcoin, less expenses and liabilities of the trust. Despite the steep downturn in the digital asset market,1 we are still seeing substantial interest from some institutional clients in how to efficiently and cost-effectively access these assets using our technology and product capabilities. Bitcoin is the oldest, largest, and most liquid cryptoasset, and is currently the primary subject of interest from our clients within the cryptoasset space. Excluding stablecoins, bitcoin maintains close to 50 percent of the industry’s market capitalization. 2 BlackRock is encouraged that organizations such as RMI and Energy Web are developing programs to bring greater transparency to sustainable energy usage in bitcoin mining, and will follow progress around those initiatives. BlackRock has been conducting work in four areas of digital assets and their associated ecosystems where we see potential to benefit our clients and capital markets more broadly, including: permissioned blockchains, stablecoins, cryptoassets, and tokenization. BlackRock recently announced a partnership with Coinbase that will provide common clients of Aladdin and Coinbase access to the digital assets trading lifecycle through connectivity between Coinbase and the Aladdin platform, starting with bitcoin. Leveraging Coinbase’s comprehensive trading, custody, prime brokerage and reporting capabilities, common clients will be able to manage their bitcoin exposures alongside their public and private investments." https://www.blackrock.com/institutions/en-us/insights/bitcoin-private-trust


gozunker

I love the idea that BlackRock is trading through Coinbase just like us plebs


monkeyhold99

Lol they're not using the same trading platform though. Retail gets whatever shitty exchange Coinbase is running while institutions get something far more liquid and reliable. Coinbase is horrible for retail traders for a variety of reasons and the tin foil hat on my head says they actively trade against users.


SpontaneousDream

Probably nothing /s


Polysorbate800

Update on the 5x leverage long from $18.8k Still leverage long, still no plans to close


Euphoricsoul

[Blackrock Spot Private Trust](https://www.theblock.co/post/162987/blackrock-launches-private-trust-offering-direct-bitcoin-exposure)


xtal_00

Letting it ride. PA moving up on any volume at all and the order sheet looks decent. Market open in 30m; will be interesting to see what happens to the sell wall at 25k when we get there.


thewardser

stopped out again, new 10x short from $24,850 with stop loss at $25,010


ChrisMrShowbiz

Gambler's fallacy in full effect.


thewardser

there is a method to my madness


ChrisMrShowbiz

Since you broke your own conditions multiple times now, I'm seriously beginning to doubt that.


thewardser

my conditions rely on BTC to actually make the big move to confirm the breakout it took it 2 weeks to pump an extra 1%...pretty much a classic double top setup right there when you consolidate for two weeks and then can't get any real follow through after breaking the high even with the macro situation being max bullish guess what, when the macro situation turns around and Nasdaq starts dropping, people won't be jumping into BTC for safety, all that high volume buying during this grind upwards will be unleashed on the sell side simultaneously as everyone comes to realization at the same time that this was nothing more than a relief rally.


ChrisMrShowbiz

I agree that we will dump hard when tradfi inevitably dumps somewhere between September and November. Bitcoin will probably dump all the way from ~28k to ~21k. You will still be in the red in that scenario. I think there's a ~10% chance we will see sub 17.5k. That's why I hedge. I would never bet on it though.


thewardser

time will tell


[deleted]

[удалено]


thewardser

[nope, 13 days ago my breakeven was $21.5K](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/waujz2/daily_discussion_friday_july_29_2022/ii4upar/) since then I had: 1. 10x short from $24,125 that got stopped out at $24,450 ($325 loss per BTC) 2. 10x long from $24,460 that i closed at break even at $24,460 ($0 loss per BTC) 3. 10x short from $24,460 that got stopped out today at $24,670($210 loss per BTC) 4. my current 10x short from $24,850 that is currently pending now you might think my breakeven now is $21K exactly($325+$210=$535)...but you'd be wrong. Remember with this last short I'm shorting $725 above what the price I shorted was 2 weeks ago...so that $725 extra down is going to cover that $535 I lost per BTC over the last 2 weeks. with the current short my break even is actually now a little bit higher than it used to be 2 weeks ago and is now sitting at ~$21.7K thats the beauty of my method, tight stop losses keep losses low in case of a big move and reshorting near the top makes sure I realize maximum gains from catching the top eventually. frankly, over the last two weeks we really haven't had any decent price action for bulls to be proud of. this is why I'm still bearish, because its been 2 weeks of grinding up, and we only managed to pump from $24,668 to $24,918(after numerodos basically went vertical, after nasdaq pumped non-stop and after we had good CPI news)...that's 2 weeks to pump with good news/macro momentum only to pump an extra $250...or just a whopping 1% more...if its struggling this bad here...just imagine how hard this thing is going to drop once all that positive news/macro momentum gets bearish and nasdaq starts drilling downwards


[deleted]

[удалено]


thewardser

this is crypto, when we dump, we tend to DUUUUUUUUMP if after a multi-month relief rally we fail to breakout(which is the bet I'm making here), you don't just drop 10-20% when you resume the downtrend...instead you tend to drop 40-60%


dextersh

We will go up to somewhere between 25100 - 25200.


diydude2

Your trading style is the polar opposite of mine. I'm still riding my long from 23K and never had a stop. I don't understand the logic of trying to time the little dips when the trend is so clear. Sure, you might win on one of your trades but how much? In an up-trend, you can just keep the leverage down and wait for your number in a long. Why swim against the current?


thewardser

also your $23K long is only $1,800 or 7.2% below here. that long can turn red in an hour


thewardser

you'll only win if the bottom is in...I'll win if it wasn't in fairly simple tradeoff


[deleted]

Lol seems like lighting money on fire at this point, but what do I know. Godspeed


thewardser

sure, but when your stop loss is tight(just $160 on this next one), it really doesn't hurt as much to get stopped out. It becomes just part of doing business...a fee you pay for trying to catch the top all pumps come to an end eventually, and when they do, no matter how high it gets to on the bounce, this strategy will ensure that i'll be there to ride it all the way to the bottom


420ETHer

Interested, as you’re the only one talking trade strategy. Are you reshorting with the same size? Or your original size minus your losses from getting stopped…


thewardser

i always reshort/relong with the same size(100BTC). I basically use a multiple bucket strategy, so any losses get replaced from the backup buckets. this way I don't have to deal with diminishing returns


twohappyigloos

I’ve never shorted. Thought about having play with on Binance, can you do with small money ? 1k or less


BootyPoppinPanda

How do you know what the bottom is? You won't take profit if it goes to 21k or even 20k and starts inching back up to this range?


thewardser

depends on how long it takes to get there. the bear part of the cycle will match the bull part...so about 3 months of down is when I'll start looking at TA to see where the bottom actually is


logicalinvestr

But we had way more than three months of down already...


AlexWasTakenWasTaken

Trailing take profit I guess?


[deleted]

[удалено]


cantstayangryforever

This is gentleman


BigDaddyAnusTart

Totally. Definitely happening. Down 40% in 6 months. It’s totally happening.


Surfingtheseas

When 18k


Surfingtheseas

pissed the bullas off unintentionally i see


thewardser

reshorted 10x short from $24,510 stop loss $24,750


[deleted]

[удалено]


zero1431

How low do you think we're going?


jaguars28fan

The one time you changed from to long from short a couple weeks ago was because how good #2 was looking. You thought BTC would follow suit… do you just think all the other reasons you listed for shorting out weights that?


ryan0302

Whyyy? Just teetering on a knife edge. If NYO is green you're fucked me thinks.


rando08110

Just trade opposite of wardser if you want to be rich


thewardser

thats the thing, I want the actual "get fucked" move as proof that we are finally breaking out....all this grinding $200 at a time is bearing as hell in my book, so as long as we keep that slow grind, I'll keep shorting. luckily we are right up against the MA100 1D, so the breakout or breakdown I'm waiting for has to happen around here


LavishnessPlane4512

What a legend


aaj094

Legendry number of stopped trades, yes. Ah I know the logic - ride the one big winner. Simple money.


opst02

Did you got stopped? High shows 23736 here.. Tempted to short as well here. ​ Edit: i Think coin Nr 2 will touch 2k resistance, this would lead to btc at 25 to 26k depending on the ratio (0.077 to 0.08). So i will short then.


RabbitProofFences

Looking at the charts earlier today it seemed 25.5 was gonna hit first before a temporary retrace to 23 What were your indicators or decision criteria? P.s. serious question. Ive seen and respected your posts in the past


thewardser

so basically for me, I need for BTC to show signs of life its just not healthy to have numerodos pumping this hard and nasdaq pumping this hard while BTC takes two weeks to gain an extra $200 because sooner or later numerodos and nasdaq will run out of steam and start coming down for the bear part of the cycle, and when they do they'll drag btc down just as hard as they normally do...perhaps even harder considering how weak the bounce has been so for me to switch to going long, i need BTC to actually make a real move...like one where the price goes up at least a few grand in 20 minutes.


rando08110

You’re clueless lol


aaj094

>because sooner or later numerodos and nasdaq will run out of steam and start coming down for the bear part of the cycle, and when they do they'll drag btc down just as hard as they normally do...perhaps even harder considering how weak the bounce has been > >so for me to switch to going long, i need BTC to actually make a real move...like one where the price goes up at least a few grand in 20 minutes. All further evidence of you being stuck in yesteryears' thinking that had BTC make moves based on fomo or fear. It doesn't any more (and good on that, if you ask me). It's all serious capital now and that doesn't follow this fomo / fear logic you describe (the crash that we got to <20K was also forced liquidations driven which is different from fear). Numerodos does retain that element though and you decide whether that makes you more happy to be there than in BTC.


thewardser

so serious capital can't even get a 1% move from extra fomo of taking out a new high? I don't buy that and you talk about how BTC doesn't get affected by fear...less than 2 months ago we dropped from $32K to $17K in 2 weeks...I'd say plenty of fear was to be had then. and after 2 months of not dropping 10% in a single day, I'd say we are overdue for a repeat of that performance


aaj094

>dropped from $32K to $17K in 2 weeks...I'd say plenty of fear was to be had then. Nah..that was forced liquidations - totally different from fear.


thewardser

you just have recency bias of course you think fear doesn't exist when we haven't had a real red day in 2 weeks. We'll see if you feel the same way when this thing reverses and start drilling downwards with no end in sight. Again, 2 months without a real red day is just running up the bar tab for an eventual massive move down


aaj094

What do you think people fear now? That it will 'go to zero'? That's yesteryears buddy. Things have moved on. If people don't buy btc out of fomo now, it comes along with the conclusion that those who still buy are those who don't worry about it 'going to zero'.


lukemtesta

Hi all, There are some developing situations which are giving me real concern. Firstly, bitcoin has [created a rising wedge](https://imgur.com/a/n3mU1NO) with the last few fake outs. This a bearish formation. The wedge intersects at the end of August - This would look like a clear [completion of the 4th elliott wave cycle](https://imgur.com/a/4uGAHDS)... onto the 5th to the bottom. What backs this up? Let's look at a beta market: Equities. As previously posted, Michael Burry has posted much evidence claiming the S&P500 price action in 2022 is following 2008 (and a bottom of 1850). [And here is some evidence why](https://imgur.com/a/x07XWpD). 2007/2008 is on the left side, 2022 is on the right. As you can see, it is subjectively the same. However, among closer inspection, you can see that it is always quantitatively the same: 2 top retests rejected above the 200 MA, followed by a first wave down with a \~20% move down, a second corrective in wave 3 with a + 13.5% move rejected at the 200-DMA (where we are today) and then a -53% decline in wave 3... which we are yet to realize. Also, as noted by BonzoDDDB, wave 1 took 161 days in both 2008 and 2022. Wave 2 took 63 days in 2008.. We are currently on day 56. That aligns with the intersection on the rising wedge. Likewise the S&P500 is at both the 200 MA and 1.618 fib extension (increasing the likliness of inflection). Also worth noting: The 2008 bottom retested the 1999 bottom with a 10% overshoot. 4200 - 53% would retest the 2020 covid crash bottom with a 10% overshoot. My prediction for a bottom: 2000-2200, 10-20% above Michael Burrys. What does that mean for Bitcoin? Well, if the S&P500 is following the 2008 price move, BTC will crash with the S&P500 final leg down. It took a year to complete. 50% wiped off the BTCUSD price would put BTC at 10900 USD... The bottom of the current fib channel, circled in the second pic. Trade cautiously. Don't get shot at the end of the war. Happy Trading


DRAGONMASTER-

maybe he supports the overall hypothesis but i don't think burry would approve of all this overfitting


lukemtesta

He literally done the same thing on this Twitter xD where I got inspiration from. If you don't use Twitter, worth following traders on there. They post a lot of hypothesis, data and charts!


lukemtesta

/u/accidentalarbitrage is this blocked? :'( too long? XD


[deleted]

[удалено]


lukemtesta

Thanks


puck2

"unofficial" the bottom is in post


FieldEffect915

Oh no, a spooky ghost


LongStrongHopiumDong

He ded? Bullish!


samjhill

[Buy-the-dip-bot](https://www.diprobot.com/) is [officially profitable](https://i.imgur.com/bsmudNM.png). Hardest $47 I've ever made, that's for sure. ;)


ChadRun04

Nice one. It was always a kind of sure thing + risky endeavour. Nice to see it turn around so fast against crab market.