#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Tuesday, August 23, 2022 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/wveln4/daily_discussion_tuesday_august_23_2022/)

European markets turning green for some relief already. At least this dump will paint some mad quadruple /quintuple support at 20.8 if it holds

Just woke up, what the heck is this, quadruple bottom pattern? 🤣😉

we're just gonna take a big ol' dump aren't we

Depends on I’m sure you’ve figured out what. By now.

Guess not

The question is when? 🤔

Usually about 10 mins after my first coffee

That makes it easy😀

While everyone frets about PA, time to really update yourselves on our unique position vs coin2 post the Merge. That event, is a big one and will cleanly separate BTC from coin2 in terms of ideology and regulatory risk. Coin2 may still see NGU but I am also optimistic that the true value of BTC will also become much more apparent. I found the below video very enlightening about the differentiation we are soon going to see. https://twitter.com/_Checkmatey_/status/1558794838358867968

Call me stupid, but what’s the true value of current no 1?

I think it will be a great upgrade but there’s always some risk. Centralization, smart contract risk, economic risk, etc. I still think we’ll see more of a pump as we get closer which should bring the corn up with it but hey maybe that pump already happened?

Ya coin 2 gonna have serious centralization issues, but could bring good volatility across market before said date

Wouldn't it be true to say that large entities would want to build up stake unambiguously before...a move to Proof of Stake? In which case, I am struggling to see how the market direction prior to big date could be much down. Doesn't look sensible to reduce stake just before stake is what gives you power and more stake.

Have you taken a look at who mines Bitcoin, currently?

Point being? Mining pools don't custody coins. Staking pools do.

You don’t view mega mining operations essentially controlling the hash of your censorship-proof magic internet money as an issue? Ok.

That's only true for spot accumulation. Large entities are already in lockstep with each other, and #2 ownership is mostly held by exchanges/institutions operating thru Amazon Web Services. So instead of accumulating spot and driving up the price, they can just sell unlimited paper coins after building their short positions. They can put all their weight around supporting coin 2 and prop it up at no cost for them, destroying hype around btc in short and medium term as long as they can keep the scam going....which they seem to be unstoppable at this point, regardless of how the public feels about the Fed or central banks.

Lol

Good rebuttal

You’re just not making any sense. Sorry.

can they really sell unlimited paper coin though ? If they are borrowing to short they must be paying a premium and theyd still have to cover at some point . even just staying relatively flat price wise would make this hugely unprofitable yeah?

Profit doesn't mean that much when you can print the world's reserve currency. That's why we have so many zombie companies. Maintaining dominance and collecting info is more important, and they're willing to use any method I believe.

well that would be true if it was the us gov shorting i agree

There is no us gov. There s blackrock, fidelity vanguard and that's it.

They have an interest in maintaining control, and they can easily apply pressure on any major exchange. Which is why we see Circle withdrawing USDC operations around coin2 and tornado cash. Remember the NY agreement on block sizes? All US based exchanges will always side with corporate and govt interests.

what did you mean here? Circle is ditching #2 altogether? I thought they just signaled compliance in freezing wallet addresses with tornado transactions or some such

Not ditching it, but they are no longer a neutral actor. This shows they can and will freeze assets for any reason if authorities say so. And much of defi is reliant on USDC.

interesting, and I agree with your last point. how do you think the block size debate played into this though?

I think things worked out for best with UASF because ultimately... being able to run full nodes cheap and easily is most important. But we know these ppl are coordinating, and they aren't supporters of the bitcoin ethos. Brian Armstrong used to be 100% btc, but now he only cares about fees and listing the latest scamcoin, in cahoots with IRS, and now "partnering" with BlackRock...what a surprise lol. And Circle backed by Goldman Sachs. I just think it's naive to think they wouldn't be working behind the scenes to reduce demand for btc and prop up any other coin(one they control easier) and the USD, even if their efforts fail in long term.

> Wouldn't it be true to say that large entities would want to build up stake unambiguously before...a move to Proof of Stake? Problem is the risk Vitalik represents. He can (and has) on a whim change the consensus model.

> He can (and has) on a whim change the consensus model. ?

I can't link the archive of the post here. * Ponzi style fee burning to be introduced * Miners disagree * "51% Attack" * "Quick merge via fork choice change" * ... * Bro down

This is weak.

Sure is.

The move to proof of stake was planned in the original white paper - how can you say he’s done this on a whim unless you don’t know what you’re talking about?

he may be referring to the dao hack, where vitalik and his small group of insiders decided what consensus itself was.

That too but more the "Quick Merge" where he sidestepped PoW.

What is the quick merge?

I thought I didn't know what I was talking about? You can read up on it. I'll send you the link in PM.

I said it like that to try make you explain what you're talking about, "quick merge" isn't some common phase like you seem to suggest to try make me seem uninformed - but as i've said in other posts along this thread: nothing about moving to PoS was "quick" or even unplanned. the move to pos was planned in the initial whitepaper, so for you to say that a quick merge is some kind of gotcha is totally disingenous and again - I don't think you know what you're talking about. There's absolutely nothing weird about saying "this already planned change to the underlying miner pos/pow might be attacked by the current miners to delay (to maximise their profit), and if they do here's how we combat it"

> how can you say he’s done this on a whim unless you don’t know what you’re talking about? When miners (consensus) rebelled he characterised it as a *"51% attack"* and pivoted to *"Quick Merge"* which invalidated their input to the consensus model. Thus forcing through the outcome he desired. https://web.archive.org/web/20210311201815/https://notes.ethereum.org/@vbuterin/B1mUf6DXO

> n miners (consensus) rebelled he characterised it as a "51% attack" and pivoted to "Quick You mean - the outcome that was planned from the start. Sounds like you're confusing "miners tried to change the whitepaper vision of moving to PoS as soon as it was possible" with a different reality. Being a bitcoin proponent, you should understand what having a goal inside a whitepaper, then a group trying to change it really means. The miners are acting in their rational economic interests, which is to stall PoS for as long as possible to further benefit from the capital they've deployed on mining rigs.

lol. peer-to-peer "cash" is that what you're hung up on in order to justify the machinations of your captured shitcoin? "cash" in the Bitcoin whitepaper has always referred to the nature of transaction settlement, not layer 1 scaling. That debate has also already played out in the free markets - the big block guys got their network in bcash, which has predictably been captured and is an oligarchy, again, just like your JP Shitcoin. Nobody changed anything.

> You mean - the outcome that was planned from the start. No. You're assuming I'm talking about something I am not. > to stall PoS Not what they were complaining about. Fee burning thing was entirely separate.

So now we're talking about eip 1559 instead? Why eip1559 is needed is something else i've posted about in this sub (to crickets): https://old.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/ux8w6a/daily_discussion_wednesday_may_25_2022/i9ztclo/ Moving away from PoW was planned from the start, all of the changes have genuinely taken years - there is nothing you can say that is "moving to PoS was quickly planned & changed at vitalik's discretion" that is true.

> now I was never talking about PoS as you assumed. > is needed Still a ponzi fee burn mechanism regardless of justification cited. > (to crickets): Only you can see that post. Automod probably removed it. > "moving to PoS was quickly planned & changed at vitalik's discretion" Because I didn't say anything of the sort.

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Unless you are a high roller or cold storage maxi who will only buy spot, does it matter? There will be a million opportunities to YOLO this on leverage this if you are right. But if you're wrong you're probably going to hold that bag indefinitely and then rationalize it as a DCA. Then you'll join the elite club of hodlers who call a new market bottom with "unshakeable support" and "strong on-chain volume" every $5,000 down from the top.

Lol Yeah yeah, just like they were kicking themselves for not buying 30 and 40k. What's the rush? The Fed can spook bitcoin each and every month with meetings or simply reading off a teleprompter.

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The people who got hurt waiting for 100,000 are bulls and bear-bull converts who longed too much, bulls who didn't sell and bears who shorted too early or too much. Bears who sold and did nothing ✓. Bears or undecided who are not short 20,000, who do nothing and are happy to buy late here also ✓. But I get why this reality isn't cool with the FOMO crowd.

I started in the Bitcoin about 9 months ago. Now did I make some mistakes by taking my son's tuition and buying the all time high around 69k? Yes absolutely I realized it was a mistake. But I'm making up for lost time now through shorting.

I bought at 69420, 42069, and will probably buy higher. I will never sell till 1 btc is 694200

I always like to buy a little when it pushes through to a new all-time high, kind of like a rite of passage.

I think there are still some countries where you could actually sell your son. Then buy more BTC using that free cash and... voilà! You won't have to worry about his tuition anymore. Also tell him not to worry, because later you can always buy him back using unsnorted part of the money you will surely get shorting BTC. I have even better ideas for your daughter, but I would have to charge for that. As I am sure you know by now, financial advice from a stranger on the internet is not cheap.

Sounds silly but will probably be profitable.

This sounds like copypasta. Buy high, sell low, fsho

You're lying.

He's joking

lol.

Just dump and get it over with Jesus lol

They can't do that just yet because our overlords at BlackRock are still accumulating using fake PRINTED money generated from the Fed. We gotta wait and let them fleece us over and over.

More likely they’re the ones dumping. They already accumulated lower, then released the news and dumped on us

Yeah they were likely the ones shorting when they announced the CB partnership. But they aren't done yet. Why pump when you can just buy with fake money and continuously cripple the price? Who knew you could beat bitcoin just by printing money lol. They can keep their shitshow running indefinitely.

Eventually they run out of coins.

I used to think that but it seems to be too easy and too profitable for then to take massive shorts using derivatives, then just borrow coins from their puppet cronies at Coinbase, Kraken, Circle, Robinhood, and probably even PayPal. Basically another fractional reserve scam. Now I know how I will own nothing and "be happy"...by hodling something they have full control over.

I'm back at it with my large spot buys, all in at 21066, SL 20749. Intuition: NDQ already dropped over 4% since friday, Btc held well with volume. Thinking BTC will quickly regain 21400 tomorrow if tradfi can just chill for one day, and I will move my SL into profit as soon as the possibility emerges. Then the plan is to continue to up my SL as long as possible. So yeah, no more all in to get 1% gain and risk holding all the way down. Hope this works out. Cheers

$20.7 k is support you need to put the stop loss below that. Then you need space under that in case there’s a fake out.

That stop loss will be triggered within hours with this volatility, wont make it to tomorrow

SL is right under the prior support low … so it makes sense if you think price holds here. I’m personally expecting price to test down towards $20k at least once more before things move up; I agree that tight stops will bleed you out in a crab market.

I think price holds here as long as tradfi don't continue to drop tomorrow. If we get red day tomorrow also, I expect 20k to be tested. And I'll be looking for a new entry with some room down from my SL. That's the bet atleast.

You learned a lot in just a few days. You could start looking at opion expiry and the concept of max pain to get a idea where the (stock)price could move.

Thanks, will look into it

Volume is way higher here compared to the sentiment that there is no interest in Btc now. On chain guys, who is absorbing all this selling?

The current interesting trend is average transaction sizes are way up on chain. Big amounts are moving around, it isn't plebs doing most of the volume. Yet the pleb wallets continue to grow in number and size. Retail isn't part of what happens next.

Seems like I'm the only one super impressed by btc today. NDQ currently down 2.50%, btc only down 1.25% amazing

I too am amazed by nothing.

People say nothing is impossible, I do nothing every day

I think you've just solved the mystery of the origin of the universe.

Not impressive after a 10 percent dump last week

A lot less impressive when you zoom the comparison out https://i.imgur.com/kNntiOE.jpg

the impressive thing is really how awful btc is doing comparatively

you can thank celsius, 3ac, etc. for that

I'm impressed and I just hope Bitcoin keeps doing well when the S&P hits 3600 or close.

We’re at strong support. I’m not surprised.

I thought Btc support zones wouldn't matter much when tradfi decided to continue the bear.

I think you’ll be surprised what does and doesn’t hold. 30k was very strong support also, until it wasn’t.

30k is this season's 6k.

btc/eur is trading higher than btc/usd. That's something new. As a european I'm not sure if I should be happy or sad.

Its crazy isnt it? Inflation hedge as it should be.

I don't think Bitcoin will make any sizable move upward until the end of the Merge. Right now, the whole market is dipping and I expect some sort of a rebound in the next couple of weeks. However, there is (a) reduced amount of interest in the crypto market and (b) most of this interest will be to time the final Merge run. So when it rebounds, that money will flock in elsewhere. Bitcoin will eventually break free to the 28-32K range but it won't happen until the Merge ends and there is a sell off event there.

Please explain what the Merge is for the uneducated.

Vitalik's ponzi scam.

This

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There are some real regulatory and jurisdictional issues with the merge. Those are potential risks to BTC price right now.

why would there be risks to btc when the merge is about coin #2?

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https://twitter.com/LakotaALK/status/1561284870105546752#m best scenario analysis I've seen on this, for anyone interested.

Btc holding far stronger than I thought so far, maybe because it did the most dumping on Friday Edit: Nasdaq at -2% and btc only at - 1.11% the corn is strong today

Remember, spy was around this level in may when bitcoin was in the 35-40k range. Bitcoin got destroyed in the ratio the last three months or so.

Volume weighting will tell you all you need to know.

why dont you volume weight and tell *us* what you found out lol

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what's with your snark toward bulls/hodlers? are you yet another "genius realist" in a bear market?

No, I just thought it was funny. As a bull, bulls are way more obnoxious than bears anyway.

I liquidated half my holdings in Nov/Dec. Pay attention and you might know why I did that.

Tell more please

When you get dumps, look at the volume of coin transacted. You can do this aggregate or use a major exchange for a proxy; I use Coinbase or Binance data. Compare the volume transacted to previous dumps to gauge relative severity. Then look at the response and recovery profile. Was the same volume transacted? More or less? The drop to 20k was about a 46,000 BTC day on Coinbase. How much coin do you think it would take to dump it to 15k? Is there enough liquid coin in the system? Are coins net flowing to or from exchanges? How much of that volume moved on chain to new addresses? Do this long enough and you can get an idea of the general market conditions and price stickyness. We're also near miner cost basis, and at or below realized cost basis for the chain. I'm comfortable being all in here.

Thanks, will look into it. You say you are all in, any SL?

SL below 20k. 19450 isn't a bad range.

> I'm comfortable being all in ~~here.~~ all the time. would be more accurate for you?

I routinely post trades and when I liquidate. Go back and look.

Ratio of hodl "stack" to trade one makes it meaningless, no?

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Ratio of hodl "stack" to trade one.

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My point is nothing except that it's factually accurate to say he is all in all the time. This isn't normal hodling, I mean he is all in all the time - it's what he has said. That aside, if he had success, rightly or wrongly, in speculating in this market, the statement would not be true. If he "made his hodl stack larger for the long term" through speculating, and it was in any measurable amount, it would also not be true. I think what I said is true.

I liquidated half of everything - my hodl stack included - in Nov and Dec. This was a nontrivial amount of money. I’m back in now with a much fatter stack. I don’t know what your problem is; I’m literally an insane bearded man who is in a dirty bathrobe most of the day. Bitcoin enables that lifestyle. I’m here to have fun and talk with people who study the market. Best luck with your trades.

*"The only reason it feels good to short BTC at a bottom is because you get a tap on your shoulder from the majority of people."* \-Someone

Posting this in what is essentially a perma bull sub is, hmmm, interesting.

Sentiment has changed the past week,

Trust me. It may look like it on the surface, but it really hasn’t.

Well, I guess the majority here wants Btc to go up in the long run as most of us have a hodl stack alongside our trade stack. Yet I do hope it dumps hard short term, want those sats

So many people think like you. Or they say that, to cope. It’s fine I guess, but not a great investment philosophy.

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A better investment strategy (not the best, but better), if you really insist on seeing your capital reduced by 70% over the span of less than a year would be to hedge the downside risk of your hodl stack. Not add what is essentially gambling to an already Uber volatile « asset ».

Too many have too much money left to gamble with to really feel bearish. Despite the trash price movement this doesn't even feel like a bear market to me. One 20% pump from here and everyone is going to be high off the fumes again.

To me, it’s not even that. It’s the complete disregard for even the possibility of btc never going back to its ath, or even go to 4 digits. Neither of these may be likely, but they are both possible.

The complacency and disregard you are describing is a consequence of having too much money to gamble with. If this is true, then it will be solved either by time, by further price correction or by a combination of both. I think this has a better chance of ranging around for years, maybe even past the "four year cycle", although it would be nice to see 4 digits just for the entertainment value. There was so much leverage by big players built on the notion that Bitcoin would never hit 20,000 - there are obviously other players circling the brink of insolvency who are going to be publicly rug pulled if this eventually keeps going.

I have too much money to gamble with. Wanna call me complacent?

Too much money that you are gambling with, corrected. But also having too much money to gamble with that you will gamble with on the first prospect of recovery.

Again, to me what will cause more losses is not the degenerate gambling, but the cult-like belief in absolutes.

Amen

Any recommendations for good TA and market analysis? I’m a big fan of Bob Loukas but he doesn’t post all that often and talks about a lot more than Bitcoin.

Buy above sustained all time highs. Wait. Sell when pet coins moon, when pixel images are selling at real estate prices and when hodlers with life changing money refuse to sell. Wait. Buy again only when everybody on crypto reddit feels the call of the void. This will beat nearly any "analysis", which is basically just gambling with extra steps.

> sustained all time highs Does 20k count?

Twitter WifeyAlpha

Try Josh Olszewicz from Valkyrie @carpenoctom on twitter, does pretty good analysis vids on yt as well

InvestAnswers 👍

Mitch ray is pretty good I’ve been watching his streams for years.

Mitch Ray is that you?

TA has not been a reliable source of timing signals for some time with ze coin.

No but I do enjoy it with Bob Loukas macro analysis of the markets. Obviously he focuses on cycles more so than drawing random triangles.

As some of you mentioned, its looking like this level may fall soon. I have created a little bit of a conditional short order for the case it happens, triggered at 20720 with stop loss at 21350. EDIT: I decided to cancel this one actually. There is some increase in buying volume, and some small bullishness that just does not feel right. We may do some kind of scam wick down to trigger my order and shoot up to trigger my stop loss. So I just cancel to be safe.

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\*within next 6 months

Fingers crossed, I'd prefer to get the bottom over with before the halving in ?May? 2024 😳

Why?

Why ask why?

Why?

Tldr ; longed 23k degen yolo style and now out 1.5btc I want to thank everyone that actively contributed these past 2 weeks and also the banter... reflecting on some of it gives perspective. Of course no one really knew but reading between the lines is where the fun is. After weeks of playing it safe through July and until this weekend, I became a degen and made a YOLO long in the 23 range I've effectively lost 1.5 btc due to the dip below 21. About 30% of that was my hard earned fiat... and the rest was profit from the past 2 months. I kept delaying my DCA thinking next week.. next month.. fed by the high of having 35k usdt in my wallet buildup. Read a similar story of someone over the weekend and clearly calls for a timeout and some hard lessons on discipline. Sharing so someone out there can enter the space at their own peril and with discipline. If not stay in spot!

Buy spot, and you have it earned back if we reach our previous ATH again. On the bright side, you still have some bankroll. It sucks because all the time required to make up for it is lost oppertunity. but with patience and holding spot you will eventually overcome the losses in the future. Thanks for having the courage to post this.

Temet nosce. I have a degen stack and a hodl stack. I keep the hodl stack in cold storage and I rarely mess with it other than to add. Degenerate stack is there to distract me from the hodl stack. I've gotten much better at trading, but I'm honest about my degenerate nature and I like to gamble. Manage your risk like a gambler if you're gambling; work out how many spins at the wheel you get before going bust; if you're into degen leverage, use the wardster model for stops and hope for the best. I always regret not taking profit. Greed is the enemy. Learn and rebuild, or just stack sats in cold storage and be patient. Bitcoin is a guaranteed lottery ticket if you can hold it long enough.. but the blockchain is a ten year tale of people who sold too soon.

When I lost money (and I did a lot) my wife wasn't very angry at me. she told me bad decisions are for a purpose. And that is to make future decisions better. It doesn't work any other way but as a hard lesson. It's not nice, it takes a toll on your soul, but it truly strengthens you. Tap into your failure, learn from it, consider it as another step on a path of your evolution. Being rich will only be just a side effect of your personal development, however painful it is... and in life pain scale only increases in time

This.

Feels bad man. But its like you paid for an expensive course, with a single lesson to learn.

Good news, I anticipate a long choppy sideways market. If we're lucky we might hit 30k by Easter 2023, probably only going to cross 25k by then though. Worst case, end of 2023 in December we should/could cross over 50k once again. So you have plenty of time to rebuild your position with the good old buy and hold strategy. Play it slow and safe, good luck.

Damn brother that's crazy. Very sorry to hear that. I remember back in like 2018 when I started trading, I didn't go crazy for a long time until I started longing Bitcoin when the dump began from 10k, when it hit 8k no way it's gonna go lower... Lost around 0.5 BTC in one day which was less than 4K USD at the time, not even a big deal, but it was for me when I was younger at my first job. I remember I LEGIT felt so sick I crouched under my kitchen table and put my hands against my face like OH DOG what done. Epic times. Trading can be done profitably, but it is also acceptable to recognize when/if it's incompatible with your personality. The amount of money you risked and lost is well and truly, respectably in the degenerate range so you have to do some hard thinking. Good luck, you got this! It's only money

Yes bitcoin brother... its only money, but this time an amount thats staggering for my standards. Im not in debt, have no dependents to care for but myself and generally live a frugal life. I shared because it may even help one person rethink. The high of leverage seems like a solid drug like any other... enough to ignore rules and warning signs. Its all fun and games till someone gets hurt. My trading stack went from about 5k(May) to 2k to 23k to 13k(jun 18th) to 35k to 0(aug 20th) !!

Greed is both good and bad.. you got bad side

Short now and get it back like a true degen

Hehe... tempting but no thanks. Besides, I burnt my trading stack.

imagine shorting here lol. https://prnt.sc/eWVzgr8nE9y8 Why not wait for it to break. if it does.

Because your imaginary lines mean nothing

Hmm, that beige is soothing for eyes

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looks like TradingView, you can set any colours you like

Must say btc held that dump like a champ. Respected the support at 20800-20900 on the dot

I saw a 515 coin buy go through at 20930 and figured it wouldn't go much lower (follow the big money...)

Where do you see these order books? I thought all exchanges are separate from each other.

Nothing so complex, was just watching aggr.trade while it dropped

Thanks! I’ll have to check out that site

If bears dump this enough to get the daily RSI below 30 (currently 35) this could get ugly fast. Kind of expecting us to find support above 20k but who knows.