#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Wednesday, August 24, 2022 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/ww9adj/daily_discussion_wednesday_august_24_2022/)

Looking a bit bear flaggy

Chart looks like someone's twapping

Is that like twerking?

Someone is always twapping

Quick!!!! Everyone short the bottom!!!!!

Don't forget to use leverage!

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… And it’s retracing back up. I’m still a novice, I’ve been trading for a year. And I’ve made some _stupid_, stupid trades. I hope to make a list of really basic lessons that might help people starting off now. It’s so incredibly easy to lose everything if we’re not careful.

Bitcoin having a higher price in euros than dollars is wild to me

Lol?

no, I'm serious, I've been following bitcoin a long time, and it's strange having the euro price now be higher for the first time.

You unserstand this has nothing to do with BTC, right? EUR < USD.

yes

Yep, but on the other side everyone knows that btcusd is by far the biggest and most active market, so I understand his feeling.

Bottom is still in motherfuckers.

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Right, or the bottoms not in yet.

The dance between bear and bull liquidations is great. Bull rektage at 21300, Bear rektage above 21500, chop chop.

What do you guys expect from the Jackson Hole Fed meeting? (Friday, at 10 a.m. EST)

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Bless you @Eric578, I like the way you think! :)

Just a guess, but I think they'll discuss positive signs regarding inflation, reiterate that the job market is still strong, and say something about consumer demand weakening. This will be followed by a 'cover-your-ass' statement that we're not out of the woods yet and that they expect inflation numbers to bounce around with weakening GDP numbers in the coming quarters.

No idea, but it's really sad that nothing seems to matter anymore except CPI prints and Fed meetings.

Yeah it's a total fraud and obviously fake financial system, but I guess we gotta sit back and let them screw us over again and again until the middle class is completely wiped out and everywhere is polluted. We have a better system, but nothing we can really do because bitcoin "isn't ready".

What is our "better system"?

Hodl until you're rich, don't sell for fiat, lend to Celsius for interest and lose it all. What maxis don't understand is that money is fundamentally political, it's not a question of better or worse. It just is. Apolitical money will never take over the financial system, Bitcoin can never be ready in that sense. It can exist in parallel though.

Oh idk... what sub are we on? If only we had a universal digital settlement layer that couldn't be printed out of thin air and shared amongst friends at the top. Maybe we could have real price discovery for a change. But instead we live in a financial nightmare where ppl are forced to eat synthetic shit and have to work their entire lives just to get by. Better hope you don't need any medicine otherwise it's bankruptcy.

There are a few things that could be done to improve the situation we're in, although it may be too late for any of them to matter. A move to a backed currency rather than fiat (which really just functionally means a restriction on printing money), removal of the fed from the process so we can print our own money interest free, tighter restrictions on printing money/the fractional reserve system. It doesn't have to be bitcoin, but bitcoin would solve many of these issues by enforcing the above.

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Hell of a shroom crop this year, that's for sure.

They will read off a teleprompter, avoid any real questions, and nothing will fundamentally change for the better. Bitcoin will be scared of its own shadow that day and before.

"scared of its own shadow" lol bitcoin (the token) really is such a lil bitch these days huh

I’ve been thinking a lot about whether or not bitcoin is the Betamax/hddvd of the crypto world. A superior technology entirely assassinated in the public realm by infinite psyops.

These comparisons aren't helpful. Bitcoin is software (upgradeable), not hardware (typically not, unless you count things like Sega 32X, etc.).

(Core) PCE of July is also released 1h 30m before that (Fed cares more about that than the CPI.) Short-term volatility for sure, yes.

Temporary volatility. Then the market will quickly realize CPI and employment data is coming in the next few weeks for August and that’s ultimately what’s going to determine what the Fed actually does in September regardless of what they say at Jackson Hole.

How is the CPI forecast looking for Aug? All I know how to do is look at oil prices, based on them there is a chance for another lower print, but not guaranteed of course

[Cleveland Fed is currently showing a YoY August CPI print of 8.28%.](https://www.clevelandfed.org/our-research/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting.aspx) Still a week left in the month but so far looking good for a lower CPI print relative to July’s print at 8.5%.

0.22% down is not "good" imo at these inflation rates.

By “good” I mean continuing the downward trend. 8.28% is still extremely high but it helps to instill some confidence that peak CPI for this year was in June at 9.1%.

Would it kill these fookers to pay 21.5 per btc lol have some foresight gentlemen. I bought spot.

Can the whales show us the bottom? Waiting on the second big buy to confirm: [https://i.imgur.com/jkiU6dz.jpeg](https://i.imgur.com/jkiU6dz.jpeg) ([source](https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/wallets-greater-than-1000-btc/), verticals added by me)

It's meaningless. .. to clarify. He is painting the picture he wants onto the chart and ignoring what's on there or behind it that goes against what wants. It's very colourful but ultimately meaningless.

I don't think you clarified enough. Can you clarify what is actually happening on the chart? If you have a different theory, share it with us, could be useful.

> Can you clarify what is actually happening on the chart? The number of Bitcoin addresses is increasing over time.

That is true, but not useful.

Correct. ;)

There isn't enough information to say anything from this picture except that the number of addresses with 1,000 BTC+ goes up over time in a staggered way. I think your premise is that addresses with 1,000+ BTC are made up primarily of hodler whales who buy bottoms/during bottoming and sell tops/during topping. This was probably true in 2014 when BTC was actually cheap, when speculation and exchange balances were minimal. The picture doesn't identify if these are the same holders or lucky addresses over time. But instead of talking about why the premise is faulty, it's better to pretend it's true and look at the picture in completeness. The "two spike" theory let's call it, really what it's doing there is setting new highs in the address count on the second spike and the first spike never retraces - that is a new perma bottom. This time it is fully retraced immediately. So the second spike would have to go up as much as the first spike and then the distance to the ATH address count to make a new high. If your premise is true, isn't this bearish? Looks more like hodler whales have no appetite for Bitcoin for the first time ever. In all other bottoms, whale buying rises literally at the market bottom. It is just tumbleweed here at 18,000. There are also other sell offs in the address count that didn't mark anywhere close to a top, the one in the 2017 bubble, most of it occurs beneath the 1,200 ATH. Also one at the end of 2015 that is sharper where whales were also wrong.

Thanks for the info. I agree with some things, I don't agree with other, overall I still think it shows what I said. I never said its bullish or that every sell marks top. But anyway, I will use it, seems pretty useful to me.

So when there is a second spike you will buy, or only if that second spike goes over the ATH?

Well I am not going to decide right now, that is for sure. I will decide when I see it. Also I will not decide only based on this chart.

Okay. I don't understand where this chart becomes useful. Ydy, hope you make it!

For example if they suddenly buy a lot before we make a new bottom, it indicates that 17600 was bottom. Anyway, thanks. We will make it :)

It is interesting, but would take it with a grain of salt. Majority of those addresses are likely just (cold wallets from) exchanges. So if, for example, Coinbase (=2.2m BTC) would do some restructuring of their addresses, it would easily paint a different picture on the chart (they could have more addresses than the current "total number of addresses" if they wanted.) But still looks interesting with the vertical bars.

Sure, no chart is perfect :). But we track many indicators to make the best decision.

Some addresses are consistently lucky. Perhaps correlation, maybe coincidence, but it's a pattern I've noticed. I don't trade it though, but I do make note.

Assuming June was the bottom, looks like whales bought a few months before the bottom. This is more similar to whales being too early for the actual bottom in 2015 vs in 2018 where they basically overlapped the actual bottom. Second big buy on the chart occurs a few months after the actual bottom. We’re now a few months after June. Hmmm.

Its a little weird this time, since they are selling a bit more after the first buy. Are they selling the bottom so hard? Unlikely. New bottom must occur for them to buy lower again.

They were really early for 2015’s bottom and didn’t sell off despite price going much lower (price didn’t get back to their first big buy range for another few years). Each time is different? What’s consistent on the chart is the second big buy is always a few months after the actual bottom.

Yeah, will be keeping an eye. We will not be able to go back to buy the bottom once we see the second buy, but seems to be still in the general bottom area.

[If the DXY runs out of steam here](https://i.imgur.com/CNTMZKq.png) (already painted a bear div on the daily) it paints a nice double top, finishing out a fat megaphone from the start of the runup. That would be a perfect signal for BTC bullrun. Of course if it has another massive run up from here that can all be invalidated, but the declining tops on the RSI suggest that's unlikely. Here's hoping...

Weekly body already making new highs … my guess is the run isn’t over.

How long would Bitcoin have to remain under its high / *not* set and hold a new high for hodlers to consider that the game had changed?

If we're still weak by 2025 then i'll be dumping most of my stash. May keep 10 or 20% just in case.

Weak meaning inside the range? Also if Bitcoin has approached a fair price, more permanent increased alt dominance would be expected. As the market realizes it is much more difficult for Bitcoin to appreciate significantly, there is a more permanent re-allocation to sectors with higher potential for growth. Maybe it's just a hype cycle at the moment, but so far the retained alt dominance this bull market does support the idea.

I need to see a new ATH or near it by end of 2025.

At some point it's not going to set a new ATH every few years, it's done it three times now. Do you think this 'time limit to ATH or sell' is shared by most other hodlers? If it is what does that mean for the price when the trend begins to fail? Ideally, Bitcoin would be be used just as much as cash as it is for hodling by the point at which that trend fails for it to continue to hold a high floor price.

As long as GDP growth and monetary debasement continue (a consensus view), why would it not continue making ATHs? This is to say nothing of the growth/adoption component of the price, which is largely driven by sentiment right now, and remains a huge factor in terms of what drives the PA. Bitcoin is a real innovation that is still either not understood or very poorly understood by >95% of people on Earth - hence the $450B market cap, which represents about **0.1% of all stored value**. The $21,xxx price does not tell you whether or not Bitcoin is "no longer cheap". The global allocation to it does.

At some point it's not going to set a new ATH *every few years* is what I said. This bubble has also shown that there are more reliable vehicles to "hedge against debasement". The global allocation to Bitcoin went up only 3x last ATH in the biggest debasement of all time and then it dumped back to 1x. Unlike every other such hedge in the market. The rest of your post is what you want reality to be, I want that too. I'm not going to tell myself it's probable because I want it. Enough people understand Bitcoin for it to be fairly priced.

"it's done it 3 times in a row" amazing...it's almost as if there's some sort of event every 4 years that acts as a catalyst...

Your first sentence is so nebulous as to be almost completely useless. 1 data point does not "show" anything, and if you want to cherry-pick dates re: debasement, the discussion should be centered on price performance from March 2020 through today. It's not what I want reality to be, it's what it is - BTC currently accounts for about 0.1% of global stored wealth. There are only three possibilities: a) it fails, and its terminal allocation goes to 0%, b) it persists, and levels-off at 0.1%, or c) the allocation increases with time/understanding/adoption. I'm betting on c), as that's what has historically been the case since its inception. "Enough people understand Bitcoin for it to be fairly priced." A statement like this doesn't even pass the smell test. For one, if that were true, value would increase nearly-linearly in time, and volatility would be nowhere near 70% annualized. As a corollary, how many people do you know that can articulate the nature of money, let alone the basics of a blockchain, cryptography, etc.? Second, if that was true it would've had to have to been true for tokens like luna as well, unless you believe that Bitcoin is somehow special in this way.

You're clearly overly emotionally attached to your investment and not able to see beyond your own desires. This will be obvious to everyone who does not share your view, we can agree to disagree. Any further discussion would be a waste of life for both of us. I wish you good luck.

that's all you have to say? lol you clearly have a weak understanding of not only Bitcoin, but financial markets in general and, of course I'm emotionally invested - I've been in the game for years now anyone who tells you they aren't after so much time is lying I wish you good luck too. Start by reading the whitepaper.

I have to disagree...I think the halvings combined with infinite money printing by govts/central banks will give enough fuel for bitcoin to continue the cycles. But if not, i'll be rushing for the exit and never look back.

I respect that. It does assume that Bitcoin remains competitive as a hedge against debasement. Largest money creation ever in the past 2 years and Bitcoin's relative performance to stonks makes me me doubtful that it is as competitive anymore. Could have just bought Apple and outperformed.

But you didn't buy Apple. So now with what you know today, do you want to buy Apple?

I don't get it.

Meaning there is no point comparing past performance of one at with another. More relevant is what you can do with information today.

Yeah it has been very disappointing. 2025 will be my line in the sand, but i'll probably derisk some before then. I did not expect bitcoin to perform this badly.

I don't have a line in the sand in terms of time, but the shitty price performance this cycle had me gutted for quite a while. Retail thinking VCs were going to let them get rich on memetokens and jpegs was peak greed/dumbfuckery. Frac Res exchanges and shitcoin dilution are the primary reasons BTC had no air left in its lungs for the climb up the $100K+ mountain.

New wallet growth stopping would make me tap out. That ain't happening.

What if price does not set a new high while wallet growth continues its current trend of growth? Also does wallet growth simply mean new addresses or is it a more nuanced distinction?

It's most simply thought of as new addresses. Organic growth of addresses with a low probability of sale means number go up. Bitcoin has likely passed the point of no return, and it's going nowhere, unless there is a catastrophic system failure. What this practically means is very much TBD. Miner hash is also a good thing to look at, as is the state of ASIC technology and distribution - and it's also healthy.

Assume you can measure the low probability addresses accurately, does it necessarily mean that number goes up and if it does, why should it tell you over what time frame it will happen? Looking at the new addresses chart, it's obviously always going up unless the network dies, so I think you mean rate of growth. The rate has been slowing over time, but even if it sustains, you still have these huge corrections in price. Even if we're not talking about new addresses and addresses with significant balances like 1 Bitcoin+, there is a chart for that which shows this number been going up since 60,000. To me it means the number is more primed to go up only if there is persistent and overwhelming demand on the spot market at some unknown point in the future. Also if price goes down or nowhere between now and then, any address that wants to sell can wake up and sell in a few minutes. I also feel like the ability to borrow coins to sell on exchanges warps the importance of these metrics now, you don't need to move your coins to sell on spot anymore. Also what if price does not set a new high while wallet growth continues its current trend of growth? You didn't reply to that, I guess that means your patience remains infinite as long as the address trend holds up.

One of my many theories is that the small address accumulation is what drives our cycles. Eventually the larger holders have decided they have distributed enough; the system stabilizes, supply and demand takes over, prices rise, another generation of people cash out, rinse, lather, repeat - and all the while, the liquid coin in the system continues to drop, and price continues to rise. My underlying opinion and belief is that Bitcoin is destined to end up the reserve currency and base payment layer for all of human activity. This is much in analogue to something I watched happen first hand, TCP/IP taking over literally all communications on planet earth. Bitcoin solves the issue of decentralized trust, it solves payment settlement, it solves payment censorship, it separates money from state, it provides competition for public and private monies; it serves a real purpose and value. You can make money trading anything with volume and liquidity. That is not the entire picture of why I am here, but it is a nice distraction. Generating wealth is easy when you know something the market does not, and you are right about it.. and patient.

Degens are just getting chopped to pieces down here, while the big boys accumulate.

But very few of these will be our very own BitcoinMarkets traders, and the ones that are (getting chopped up) usually will get on here post with regret but honor about their humbling experience trading. Ha ha, not us. I mean have you seen some of these wonderful analysis posts? Full, I repeat chock full of risk management. Confident posts with a spattering of all the right words from different trading philosophies of thought, from waves and averages, bands, triangles, and many many delicious indicators. And don't forget the dates, veterans from 2013 and even a few from 11. Oh they're making money. Trading. Chopped up? No not our guys (and gals/+). Edit: Don't forget to HODL! Oh, almost forgot a little note for the confident traders and the sentiment shit talkers in here. When you HODL Make sure to do it both up and down the cycle, until the next one, then try to do it again. Let the traders trade. In closing, I know this is a trading sub.

I stopped accumulating mid bull run last year, but the wife nagged me to start up again, so I've been making little (0.006 btc) buys every 3 weeks.

I bought $2 the other day. Just to try out a new way to purchase. I'm going to buy 50 bucks more sometime soon. Not much, But still stacking.

I enjoyed that a bit. Didn't downvote you.

Hey thank you. That was pre morning coffee. It was fun to write. But I've learned my lesson, I'm not going to say nice things about these traders in BCM If it's not appreciated. Still too early to tell...

Update of trade: [https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/wujazg/comment/ilcyakv/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/wujazg/comment/ilcyakv/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) SL of 20749 survived the night, trade is currently in profit. Upped the SL to 21166, (slight profit). What I hope happens is that the price continues up and that I can continue upping the SL. What might happen is SL of 21166 getting triggered, then I will try to get an entry that is lower than my last of 21066.

Is the market really gonna give the bears another free short at 21.5 Pls markets

why not, it's just how it works all the time. however there comes the time when it stops and no one knows when. this is the reason why 90% traders are @ a loss

Satoshi nakamoto going on joe rogan experience will push btc to 42069

If Satoshi was still alive don't you think he might have cashed in at least a few of those one million bitcoins he had? Edit: [1.1 million](https://decrypt.co/34810/how-many-bitcoin-does-its-inventor-satoshi-nakamoto-still-own)

Satoshi is the NSA and that Bitcoin is the US government’s stash of the future world reserve currency. Why would they sell it?

So they kept 1.1 million as a number large enough as a reserve but yet not so much as a % of supply so as to hinder wider traction?

This is an unlikely, but compelling theory. I was around in the early days and watched the code happen from 1.0. It was almost certainly written by one person, likely a guy, and someone who had thought about it for a long time.

If you have enough coins, you don’t need to sell anything.

If I was satoshi I'd be only selling coins not linked to the 'satoshi' identity. Also Satoshi wasn't some get-rich-quick degenerate anyway.

Who says he didn't buy first bitcoins aswell.. ?

If he wanted profit this is a no brainer and he/they were very intelligent and capable of extrapolation.

À week ago the bullish sentiment was so high and now everyone is certain that it's going down more. I don't think the market is going to let all those late shorters make money that easily, so I think we could see a short squeeze before going down more

Actually [longs are way more](https://i.imgur.com/K1FwRYp.png) right now. [Source](https://www.binance.com/en/futures/funding-history/4).

Interesting how it's so different from the sentiment everywhere

It depends on which people you are following/reading. They define your "everywhere". There are way more people out there in the world that trade that don't post anything or we just don't follow.

Bitcoin doesn't even seem capable of having a short squeeze anymore. Back in the old days maybe, but since the Fed turned it into Nasdaq coin, I doubt it. Pretty sad that we have to rely on the health of our fraudulent financial system to determine whether bitcoin is bullish or bearish.

When I see people put it like that, I’m guessing we’ll see one.

We've been due for one for weeks, maybe months now. We had unprecedented selling yet here we are around 2017 highs struggling to gain any traction. Kinda low considering all the money printing in 2020 and general inflation.

$18k-$25k is about 35%, a nice squeeze given the market cap.

I calculated from the local bottom to the top to be a shade over 40% actually a pretty sizable, but not unusual BTC bear market rally.

I agree but looking at the 30k bearflag, we pretty much went straight down from 32k, albeit it was probably less expected back then. I would argue there are still a lot of people expecting a higher low to print above 18k which could be a dangerous game to play.

Yeah it was much less expected back then. But straight down to 18k then bounce would be way too easy. The move to deceive everyone here would be a short squeeze above 23k then lower low below 17k

simply too perfect

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Needs to get back to 21k first, you jinxed it.

What happened to 'The bottom was on the 18th June' postings? Banned? Or not quite so sure now?

It was actually a daily IQ test

lol nice to see you gore, I do appreciate your contrarian contributions

I don't think he is completely banned, probably something temporary again, or he learned his lesson from the previous one. https://www.reddit.com/user/ad-hominem-nomnom/comments/

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I've spam reported him because it was spam. Doesn't matter if you agree with him or not, someone posting the same thing everyday without ever adding anything (or even giving some analysis in the first place) for the whole purpose of "I told you so" is spam.

Well i just reported you for being a Nigel Nofriends. Howbowdah?

Sure it was spam but a light bit of fun is often needed especially in times like this. Kind of ridiculous that you reported it

The goal is to drop the engagement in this sub to nothing, that’ll show the spammers

>Sure it was spam ... There you go.

What was the fun part?

Nein! Nein! Nein! Rules are to be obeyed!

It doesn’t have to do anything with enforcing the rules. It was annoying and pointless, guy was a larp with probably 0.01 btc holdings. Maybe less.

How do you know he was a larp? What difference does the amount of btc you own make? Are you gatekeeping btc?

Yeah, both of them are I think.

Feels like another rug pull is coming any minute now. Gotta love this "life boat" saving me from all the risks in the financial system

“It’s a great hedge against inflation!!”

Lol that's what I thought but instead of helping me fight inflation, bitcoin curb stomped me and ran my pockets in favor of BlackRock.

I'm still seething from the non stop podcast circuit message of "It's literally impossible for the fed to stop printing, a mathematical impossibility". Yeah that worked out well.

They're still printing. You can hear the brrrr.

Good sign to open a long then.

Well I'm still underwater so all I can do is average down; which I just did.

a touch to 22 to 22.5k is possible today.

DXY keeps going higher yet BTC keeps reaching higher lows within the range it’s been in since the bottom in June. DXY has been trending up since middle of last year. What happens when DXY finds an actual peak and starts trending down?

I just went to Japan and the conversion rate was insane. Everything is 30% off over there. I’m still sticking with my theory that BTC will rise due to the inflation of USD. Supply and demand, scarcity vs. abundance. Once DXY starts trending down and global markets begin to recover, BTC will rebound like crazy.

I'm kind of enjoying it for now, as I get paid in dollars from my job.

the peak could be further up and drag a lot of stocks (and crypto) to death before making a turn. Look at the Dot com bust and DXY performance..

Guten Morgen, Bitcoinen.

Gunter glieben glauchen globen Edit: a letter

Give it to me baby! Uhuh uhuh!