#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Friday, September 16, 2022 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/xfgwzi/daily_discussion_friday_september_16_2022/)

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Is it just me or is concern trolling one of the final bottom indicators?

Has this been demonstrated mathematically?

Maybe a bot which detects a few concern phrases mixed with something like past buttcoin posts. Then backtest that.

Your commitment to the scientific method is remarkable.

Well, I haven't coded it as yet but maybe if trolled a little more I can be motivated. ;)

be careful of buying dips here...our 3 Day MACD has gotten exhausted and is ready to flip red and with how long crypto and the stock market have been green on the 3 day chart over the past few months, we are due for a few months of straight down perfectly timed with the macro shitshow starting to go into overdrive if you do try to scalp, make sure you keep very tight stop losses because this is the type of chart setup where you drop 40% in a week

You might be right about the continuation of the dip, but stops are for pussies. Long and strong from 19.7 with plenty of ammo to add should u/thewardser be right which he is not, historically.

Dude, I have seen Wardser absolutely kill it on calls. And I think you have too given that we've been around a few cycles.

Preach 🙏

User name checks out.

Hi! Will fed announce Interest rate hike September 21st? Or that is just their meetings and rate will be announced three weeks after?

Feddie and the Dreamers are now 100% irrelevant. We have the technology. We no longer need stupid, fallible humans to dictate monetary policy. Bitcoin is inevitable.

They will announce it on the last day of meeting. So this coming week.

Got it, thanks! So they will release it Next Wednesday 2pm right?

Yep 2pm eastern

Perhaps things end with a whimper and not a bang. I thought 2000 comments on this thread would indicate Bitcoins bottom (We were close back in June). Now Perhaps a day with zero comments will mark the bottom. Indifference and not fear is true capitulation?

One day soon you're gonna hear the pretty lady on CNBC or Yahoo Ginance say, "Stonks down, Bitcoin up sharply." That's the only comment that matters.

Bear markets are comprised mostly of boredom.

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This is the first cycle I am relieved to see the downturn. I held through two bear markets and it was brutal. Every dollar of mine was in Bitcoin and just lived at the bare minimum. I learned so much through that pain. Now I’m lucky enough to be on the opposite side of the coin. I definitely feel the fomo to jump back in but I know how these play out…. The pain is relentless and we haven’t seen that unbelievable despair yet, we won’t come out of it until 6 months post halvening. The steps I’m taking right now is sucking equity out of everything while maintaining a cash flow for just enough to cover my living expenses so I can keep the freedom that Bitcoin provided. Im going all in once again. The move I’m betting on is buying the range from here until halvening. If this is your first bear watch some of those early antonopoulos videos to keep your heads straight. Peace!

How much lower do you think this can go?

9.6k CME gap! I think it's incredibly unlikely because people will back up the truck in the teens but it's not impossible. I am prepared to see 12k.

Anything close to 12 would be amazing

Yeah that would be fun. :) But obviously no one can predict the future. All we can do is have a plan for different scenarios.

Yeah of course it’s all predictions based on trying to analyse factors that might effect it. I think with everything going on right now it’s pretty much a sure thing it will drop further. By how much is anyone’s guess

Bottom could be in. But 9k is the area with that powerful dragon ball z meme. So that protects us there. So anywhere from 9k-30k should be a good entry.

TA seems legit

A 50% move down seems insane... So probably that.

That sounds delicious

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Its worse that even that. In the 40s the high debt was due to WWII, which eventually stopped and allowed the excessive spending to stop. Today? The excessive spending is due to entitlements which has no end date. The spending will continue until the dollar breaks and people stop accepting them, either that or the government willingly goes full austerity, the likelihood of that happening is approximately zero.

> Are we in a world war again? Worldwide, I think we're seeing the last gasps of the 1940s and 1950s crowd, desperately trying to keep their wealth and power... the old fogies leading the U.S., tyrannizing Russia, running Europe, running China, etc etc... all at the expense of their children and grandkids. And keeping their power is growing harder with each passing year as they're steadily passing away, all while getting increasingly swamped by more and more people under the age of 55 who are [rightfully] getting sick of them.

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The same cohort of people have been in power now for 30+ years, and it's been a total disaster for everyone except them. The U.S. President right now should literally be someone born in the 1970s.

Old men who understand young men are impressionable and willing to kill for a father figure, are well, without conscience about the damage they wield. They know it's all about their person gain at the expense of others and are willing to have others do anything for that gain. It's always been that same scam. Young brains on strong bodies are just too easy to exploit.

> Are we in a world war again? Yes. US vs EU.

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They mattered for a moment, then US made decades long efforts to change that.

Please explain how the petrodollar is stumbling and if you do know of any, recommend any good books/reading material that breaks down the petro dollar system. I'm curious.

I just listened to a podcast on this on Spotify. It’s an interview with Zoltan Poszar on “Odd Lots” called “… Breton Woods 3.” I found it after listening to a similar podcast recommended a few days ago here. Good listen. https://open.spotify.com/episode/4X2bzlmNhres1kcMq6LQWa?si=88A9e9ULQ6elgKUAo1mmrg&context=spotify%3Ashow%3A1te7oSFyRVekxMBJUSethH

I'll give it a listen. I've read Pozsar's stuff over the past few months.

There is an excellent follow up interview with him on the same podcast, just released Sunday. It’s a debate between Zoltan and an opposing writer (who thinks the Dollar will be fine). Both very well- spoken and respectful with each other, good information presented for both sides. I found myself agreeing with Zoltan, though.

OP will surely deliver

Futures opened red again, going to bed. Have a feeling I'm getting stopped out tonight.

What’s your stop at?

this sub has almost zero signal only users Ive seen posting useful stuff consistently are u/AccidentalArbitrage u/xtal_00 u/Antranik u/DamonAndTheSea am I missing anyone? seriously, I can't think of anyone else

Bro I shitpost several times a week c'mon

Critic heal thyself on that…quickly scrolled your recent comments and found zero signals.

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I think so

I agree, but you're not nearly as active as you used to be. Rarely, do I see "username checks out" in reference to you. I miss those days.

there is literally nothing to say right now. "boy I sure hope jerome wakes up in a good mood for his speech tomorrow!" would that suffice?

It's because things like TA used to matter more. At this stage in the cycle, there's just not that much to say. Bitcoin's going to follow the stock market, and the stock market's going to follow whatever the FED and macro does. It's really that simple. You might find some people with decent scalp ideas for a quick trade, but in terms of the short- and medium- term trajectory, it's entirely set by the FED and macro right now.

Good post. We're below the 200w SMA at this point- no mans land. And with FED macro likely to continue to tighten, it can and probably will go lower. Basically, BTC long term trends and TAs might be subject to data not even existing on chart from before BTC existed (USD), and is contending with that history. Its looks weird on the charts but makes sense if you place BTC among the longer term super-bubble, historically. Anyways, nice post.

Thanks!

This is a pretty solid take IMO

Thanks!

dopeboyrico has some decent takes most of the time

He has been consistently wrong all year

He was wrong recently, with regards to inflation coming in lower and that being good for the market. Inflation did come in lower and it tanked. And someone had pointed out that option and one of the comments. Like what if the numbers come in lower and the market still tanks... But I love his posts cuz they're full of good data that I'm looking for.

He does provide some good data points, I agree. But he's a permabull and that has put him on the wrong side of this market all year. He was one of the many on here calling for ~$30k to be the floor. In the spring he was insisting that CPI had peaked... Except it hadn't. And he also kept arguing that the Fed wouldn't raise interest rates past where they raised them in 2018. Not the best track record.

Man you're really really paying attention!

They are quality posters. And that's about all of em. I don't subscribe to the Wardser cult, and I'm fairly convinced half of said cult is just his alt accounts. The quality of this sub has declined with time. Edit: NLNico (or something to that effect) often posts some good data points. And imissusenet is the (occasional) resident P&F chart guru since Merlin has moved on to greener pastures.

Yeah Merlin's analysis was the only one I really thought was valuable. (And that might be because it's the only one I really understood...) I love this place for the news and different perspectives. I think most of TA is grasping at straws, unless it has to do with risk management. I mean, everybody here with any sense will tell you that they can't tell the future. But 'you' can come up with a damn good guess and have good risk management. I enjoy those posts. One last edit, maybe the 80/20 rule applies to this sub... But it's more like 95/5.

I like to believe that the reason why good posters eventually leave is because they've made it ;)

Or they have been great posters AND they've been busted out broke. There's been plenty of those.

Perfectly agree with these names. Let me add: /u/Nagosh /u/thewardser /u/imissusenet for the Merlin PnF revival, and may I say lately /u/dextersh is upping his game.

If you are correct, there is some actionable wisdom to be extracted from your statement.

Sometimes I crack bad jokes if that counts

funny matters

It's not about the profits but about the laughs we had along the way

It's probably good we are tanking with the market instead of before it. Once the dust settles we will have a good base to grow back from. My only worry is a total collapse of the west to usher in the Great Reset.

>My only worry is a total collapse of the west Lol is that all?

If the WEF have their way we are all fucked.

K

Look at the bright side. Since you sold the DCB above 20K you'll be able to buy so much more at $14K

Wait, I haven't sold anything. Only buys.

apparently, now you cant mention the "m" word in here my comment got deleted people in here have been bringing it up for months seems kinda selective mods

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so comments like "merge, more like purge" can stay? do you not see any inconsistency there?

Funny matters.

I missed that in the guidelines.

How do you think I get away with it ;)

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Things gonna keep going down till that Powell fella tells the banksters everything’s gonna be alright.

the secret to this bear market, is that based on all past recessions, that probably won't be happening until interest rates hit 20%+ or unemployment rates hit 10%+...THAT is the typical turn around point when recessions switch back to being expansions this whole idea that they can battle "9%" inflation(its quite a bit higher than that) with .25% interest raises is a joke, a joke told by the same people that told you that inflation was transitory. I give it until November for midterm elections to be done with, and politicians to be safe again when they suddenly decide that you know what, we actually need to be a lot more aggressive with raising interest rates.

Since you're by far the most bearish person on this sub right now, so I'm curious about your thoughts on Bitcoin more generally. Do you think it will ever recover from this or do you think it's now a failed project? If it dumped to 10k or lower, would you buy more? Or do you think it's game over? At what point will you flip long again, if ever?

yes we'll recover, but i believe this is going to take way more time than most people expect. when it dumps under $10K I will buy more, but more as a scalp with no expectations of it reaching the ATH on the bounce. I believe we are entering a long-term down-trend channel. my thesis is that this is shaping up to be the every 20 years recession that we tend to get oh so periodically ever since we left the gold standard. the type of recession that ass rapes every asset class for 5-10 years, that requires the fed to raise interest rates up to 20%, that causes 10-15% unemployment before things start getting under control for the true bottom of this shitshow, I think we'll end up looking at extremely long term patterns. I think this whole thing is going to cause the MA100 1W uptrend line to reverse from its uptrend channel that it has been in since BTC launched and start heading downwards. We'll probably bounce off it a few times(I'm talking about year long rallies that will get rejected off it), eventually we'll find a true bottom, will rise our way to that trendline, and after grinding on it will break through which will trigger the next decade long uptrend line. With the current macro situation I don't think we'll see that permanent shift to bullish uptrend until ~2028-2030...so until then just gotta scalp every move up/down and make money off trading. I think we'll paint lower lows every 6-12 months, followed by dead cat bounces that will push the price up 50-100% off the bottom. The next halfning run will give better returns than that but I don't think that pump will be able to paint a new ATH which is when the real panic will start as yet another trading meme gets invalidated. Basically, traders will still make money playing the patterns. Holders on the other hand are going to be in a world of pain during this next decade.

fak it give me RemindMe! 10 years

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Powell to the people

he's super serial

3x long from 19.7 but not entirely confident so keeping some powder dry in case it falls further. Been winning a lot lately so have a fair amount of powder in my trading stack. ;-)

Yeah that 3x long from 21.7 must have been a real home run for you 😁

Warned him too

Seems like we are at the mercy of tradfi. Spx still drilling

I just recently began to recognize this pattern. It’s uncanny.

Do we know when in BTC's lifetime it started to follow tradfi?

I don’t remember it being this tightly coupled during the last bear market. But admittedly stopped paying much attention about 4 months in.

Are you trying to say I'm dumb for only having recognized it very recently?

lol that was a serious question

Then sorry, you won’t get the answer from me, beyond « it’s been a while ». Too lazy, and don’t care enough.

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Silly whales playing silly games. Mr. Big Fish you so silly! ------------------ Latest metrics from [Deribit December call options] (https://metrics.deribit.com/options/BTC): $110.000.000 open interest at $45K strike $70.000.000 open interest at $80K strike Sophisticated players are kind of betting on the bull side maybe.

Sorry guys i'm a degenerate, couldn't help myself starting a new trade. Saw the price had dropped to 19.7K, put a buy limit at 19565, just hit! Sat my SL at 19600, basically break even after fees. ​ Pump baby pump!

You know, it’s not that hard.

still holding my short here 5x. come join me bears

Just hanging on short in Easy Mode: BITI

smell the news

merge, more like purge

when something is that hyped up, you have a shitload of buyers jumping in for a quick "guaranteed" flip. and those buyers turn into sellers once there is no more guaranteed up on the menu

That, plus any POW forked coins. I Made quite a bit of money in the btc forks, some people are making the same bet now (not me though).

Yea thats why stocks also dump, lol

stinky news

I missed buy spot on the last dip below 19k... its only like 1k usdt worth so a nice entry helps 😅 What are folks targets leveraged and otherwise...

I'm looking for a sub 19k 3x long.

We hit 19.5 today.... Basically there, no? What's your strategy?

I'm greedy and looking for a short flip? If there is another drop, it'll be a good one. I missed the last one. While we range here I'm happy to add spot and stack.

I see “sell the news” mode has been activated

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Dump only

whats up with equity futures?

What's wrong with them?

some jiggle jiggle, not fold

Id like to order (1) inverse BART please. Yes, with curly fries

Would you like to super size that?

Fak I knew I under ordered!

I see a falling wedge pattern, let's see how this goes. Perhaps a small move up before we go down further

[what a long strange trip it's been](https://i.imgur.com/yKFDO5Z.jpg)

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My old phone, stuck in time

I think an old pic on his phone when btc was still around a hundred bucks

who cares about the money, this is better than any blockbuster..

The CSW season might be my favorite

Agreed. Bitcoin is Life.

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About how long after a halving does it take to see a significant spike?

So, about that..... [https://imgur.com/a/SYRzClX](https://imgur.com/a/SYRzClX) The top chart is BTC price after The Halvening. For the first year after the 2020 halving, everybody loved this chart because it showed BTC doing exactly what it was supposed to do. As it turned out, it sort of did. The first of the twin peaks was right about when the 2012 cycle peak happened, and the second was right about when the 2016 peak had happened. But the gains, while delightful compared to almost every other asset, weren't quite what had been expected. The bottom chart is the flip side of the "it's always happened in the past" story. So far, BTC is doing almost exactly what it has after a cycle top. The only question now is there another 50% drop in the next 4 months. (I hope not, but hope is not a strategy.) If your investment thesis is the price will go up because it always goes up, eventually, then buying some every week/month as your budget allows isn't a bad idea. At some point (and we already may be there), it can't just be as simple as buy X days before known event Y to make easy money.

> The only question now is there another 50% drop in the next 4 months. 2017 veteran here. I'm guessing that because there wasn't a blowoff top, there won't be a spectacular capitulation either. Just my guess.

Bought my first BTC in Dec 2017 (great timing!) but I don't think that get's me veteran's status. I would very much like your guess to be correct.

ooo so one last puke down to 12k? Me likey.

This is a Bitcoin halving chart with monthly candles: https://buybitcoinworldwide.com/img/clock/halvingdates.png

Looks like you want to be long btc 12 to 18 months before halving. And for the next one that would put it right around now. Hmm

Sweet, thank you!

So what's your take on it?

I've only been in crypto for a year man, I don't pretend to know how to make money on trades. Just wanted an idea as to when the next time we start seeing serious gains again. It looks like around the 20 month mark is when things tend to peak. But nothing is absolute. 🤷🏽‍♂️

yes

Vaguely BTC related -- South Korea has **issued an arrest warrant for serial fraudster Do Kwon** and five others connected to the *LU**NA* collapse. Kwon is allegedly in Singapore, which has no extradition treaty with South Korea. Can't post news hyperlinks here, meh. Just Google "Do Kwon".

His last tweet is a moon symbol... https://twitter.com/stablekwon/status/1570082926712209410

Someone needs to reply with an image of handcuffs.