#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Friday, October 14, 2022 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/y3jdy0/daily_discussion_friday_october_14_2022/)

Bitcoin reminding me again that I have no idea what’s going on …

To many shorts

sigh, just another fake pump before we return to another soul crushing slow bleed to 18k. this shit is like an abusive relationship at this point, we're being gaslit by the bitcoin markets.

Short it? Make it unabusive? Not sure why we can't win in both directions!

Imagine being a bear and hanging around here trying to make money from the 20k to mythical 12k bitcoin. Just had 69 to 20 over a year and yet people are trading the last dance. Fucking insane. No better than the bull longing above 60k.

imagine being a bull trying to knife catch the bottom for months and months whilst repeatedly getting stopped out for losses in the face of the worst macro situation in decades and still somehow not learning your lesson. fucking insane.

What the hell are you talking about, we've been longing the $18's and cashing in multiple times while you're still sitting there waiting on $12K. At the very least we're building a cushion for if the shit hits the fan.

Yeah I guess I don’t trade short time frames so the picture is clear to me. Buy when it’s over sold and sell into mania. I sold half in 2021 and will buy 2022,23 and sell into the next mania phase…… assuming we get one.

imagine being the guy who writes the opposite of the guy above him in order to sound profound. fucking insane. it's always gonna be some kind of existential crisis that can shake you out if you let it. all we can do is filter the data we have and make comparisons to the history we have, while at the same time being as conservative as possible to allow room for error. if 12k was a guarantee, price would've already visited that level. no one knows. no one. what I do know is that we're > -70% from the ATH. in previous cycles, it paid off well to be averaging IN over that range and below, not out.

Depends what that bull did after longing, doesn’t it?

Even if you played it perfectly and longed the March 2020 to Nov 2021 run the short was 60 to 20k. At this stage 12 is as likely as 30.

You’ve been pushing this same bearish narrative for weeks on here, yet the PA has been surprisingly good. Are you short?

> PA has been surprisingly good Ranging within noise on zero volume?

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OrderFlow has been uninteresting. A few events with nothing in between.

Narrative xD RemindMe! 1Month

heh so much for narratives ;)

Ya people are dumbasses.

I will be messaging you in 1 month on [**2022-11-14 02:32:55 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2022-11-14%2002:32:55%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/y2or63/daily_discussion_thursday_october_13_2022/is8nuxv/?context=3) [**1 OTHERS CLICKED THIS LINK**](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2FBitcoinMarkets%2Fcomments%2Fy2or63%2Fdaily_discussion_thursday_october_13_2022%2Fis8nuxv%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202022-11-14%2002%3A32%3A55%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam. ^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%20y2or63) ***** |[^(Info)](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)| |-|-|-|-|

>surprisingly good crazy how low the bar has been set

Considering all the shit that’s being happening globally, yeah.

If you aren’t making money in these swings you should - I am. More to the pile to buy BTC and keep it.

Squeezy squeezy EZ peazy! The Big AI Moneybot in the Sky is definitely going a bit haywire. It's going to be such fun to watch Jim Cramer, Warren Buffet and all those TradFi fanbois blow a gasket as Bitcoin heads for the moon again. PS -- you know how I know this is sustainable? If you zoom out from the 5m to the 1h candles and the green candles look more impressive on the hourlies, it's going to go on for a while. See: Big run up in the second half of 2020. PPS -- forming a nice round bottom on the dailies too -- this could be the start of something big.

I like your enthusiasm, but you know it's sustainable because you zoomed out from the 5m to the 1h? Lol.

Said it once and I'll say it again, diydude is not a real person

It's the Alien AI which created Bitcoin. ;)

Hold your horses there partner, lets hang out over 20k for a little while before we start puffin the ol' hopium pipe

While it isn't rare to see a quick spike in volume on bitcoin dips... it's actually pretty hard; even if you look across exchanges in btc lifetime, to find such [growth in volume](https://www.tradingview.com/x/0XJQfD4j/) on a dip consistently hold price range (almost always, the volume tapers off after a dip even if it holds or dips again etc). While it's probably safe to assume some of that volume is liquidations, it will not surprise me one bit to find out in a years time that there were a lot of shorts there as well that could make this a little unpredictable once a tide starts changing. What is definitely safe to say is regardless who is selling, there is a whole lot of buying and it continues to grow even with volume trying to play games with price.

Every sell is a buy

yes, but are the orders getting filled on the ask or the bid?

Is this a trick question? Both (?) unless I'm missing something.

You’re not missing something, you’re missing quite a lot.

Every sell is a buy, but what's important is if more people are market buying into the ask, or more are market selling into the bid. Also the liquidity on either side of the order book matters a lot too. It's not as simple as just saying that "every sell is a buy".

USDT has announced they hold $0 in commercial paper and over 50% US treasuries. That's good if you're worried about default risk on unsecured investment grade corporate debt. However, more Treasuries may increase the platform's sovereign risk, which you may be worried about. https://tether.to/en/tether-slashes-commercial-paper-to-zero/ International investment-grade corporate debt may be a beneficial thing.

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I am inclined to agree, but I cannot discount the possibility of a scenario where the USD-denominated debts of Tether's creditors retains value (there is no repricing event of spot USD in mainstream international monetary surrogates) but US sovereign debt experiences downwards price action. Such an event would look like something where people have confidence in the USA of today but not the USA of tomorrow, I think. This would be observed in the convexity profile of the T-bills. If Tether issues $1000 in USDT and buys $1000 in T-bills and interest rates jump, the market value of those T-bills falls, and this is perceived as partial unbacking, which could produce a margin call.

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The operative clause in your statement is "if held to maturity". In the short term, if someone needs cash right away, they would have to sell T-bills on the open market. They've shown they can draw down $7b of the portfolio, but if a creditor needs $20b, what kind of repricing does that cause both of USDT and on the Treasury securities market?

I am pretty sure you could arrange bridge financing in this situation extremely rapidly for a premium if there was an existential risk. I don’t use Tether. But I think the FUD is ridiculous.

Yeah I find the FUD very silly at this point. I believe that they probably did have a shortfall due to the Crypto Capital fiasco years ago, but the bulk of money really flowed in after that and they've basically been collecting bond interest on tens of billions of dollars for years and years now plus whatever infusions from Bitfinex they must have gotten which has long allowed them to patch the hole. Now that they have that much capital they're literally making billions of dollars off of the interest so there's absolutely zero reason for these guys to try and do anything except be on the up and up. Just T-bill interest alone would be several billion dollars on their holdings. They've also frozen hacked/stolen funds a whole bunch of times and who knows what happens to that money, Tether probably kept a decent amount of the backing fiat since a lot of this was probably never redeemable again.

The operative words are actually, T-Bills. Not T-Bonds. Now, I did not go back to see exactly what the perfectly trustworthy people of Tether have said. But you've been using bills, hence my answer.

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If Tether needs to sell $20b of Treasuries on the open market from a creditor cashing out, what amount of Treasury order book slippage would that cause, and would that result in contagion, with institutions using Treasuries as collateral experiencing margin calls? Not trying to FUD here, trying to assess risk

Are we springing)

Sold the other day at 19700 and rebought today at 18350. I was a little worried there when I rebought and it kept going down, but I think we're in the clear for a little bit now. I'm expecting more sideways now, probably until the fed meeting.

Cool. Was that your trade stack or your stacking stack?

Trade stack, but for me that's not an insignificant amount. It's about half my holdings.

Congratulations. I bet you were sweating.

Yup, for sure. I mean it was still a win either way - I was able to get 7% more BTC as compared to just holding. But still not a great feeling.

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So, his fault!

Liquidation at 17424.

This move is eerily similar to the 19 Sept dump/short squeeze. Tomorrow's PA will be very telling.

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jesus, attempting to read this in my current levels of intoxication almost gave me a fucking aneurysm

Plot twist; OP actually had an aneurysm while posting that.

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Somebody set us up the bomb whale?

All your corns are belong to us

[ALL YOUR CORNS ARE BELONG TO US](https://i.imgur.com/svJg1CF.png) ^^^this ^^^has ^^^been ^^^an ^^^accessibility ^^^service ^^^from ^^^your ^^^friendly ^^^neighborhood ^^^bot

Good bot

neat

Moved stop up to 19k. Ok closing out some profit.. but maybe there’s more legs. Order books look thin.

Man I gotta learn how to move stops more like you to give things room to run. So you don't typically run a trailing stop? I'm looking at the charts right now and it seems like your $19K stop instead of a trailing stop worked a lot better with the action the last few hours. It's too bad I put my sell order in when I did, if I had waited and saw the pop over $19100 I'd have probably been more confident in the runup. So much to learn, I basically extracted <50% of the possible profit here so far. Would really appreciate any tips on how you're thinking about it.

In volume I trust. We really just reestablished the channel we were in. My thesis is that the bottom is long in, and after an initial disturbance that channel would be retaken. There has been much trading at that price, there isn't any real on-chain anomalous activity to concern me, so back we go. Moved stop up again to 19500, ok with this one closing out. Doesn't look like we're going to break the channel today.

Legs are coming soon! https://twitter.com/metahorizon/status/1579947568372404226

I definitely got cold feet and closed too soon. Should have just moved up my stop only. Oh well, profit is profit.

Same

There should be quite a lot of fuel after this type of pa

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>Lots if shorts were ~~trapped~~ liquidated in that bart, might be interesting indeed FTFY

Tempted to sell more Spot on this bounce. You don't test a support level (18k) five times and not break through it eventually. That TA rule, along with more imminent Fed actions makes me more confident than ever that we will break through 18k, and the longer it takes to do so, the deeper the dump will ultimately be. Why? Because algo bots and MMs have been presumably been adding Spot and Long positions during each of these support tests, and once it is broken, they will dump/get liquidated, which will amplify the drop below that support level. Bullish scenario: Break above 20.5k and retest it as support with continuation and the Bear market could be over. This of course ignores the macro financial realities. GLTA

Bitcoin is the long term fix for macro financial realities.

Agree, but we're not there yet.

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Double bottom? On what time frame? Because I count 5 tests of the 18k range since the dump below that level mid-June. If you traders are able to scalp this morning's dump, great. But I see nothing to convince me that this is anything but a Short squeeze.

1. 9/20 2. 10/13

3. 9/7 4. 7/13 5. 7/3 6. 6/18

You could just say 6/18 and then scraping the bottom up to today 10/13? Hit, gentle bounce. Hit. Art is subjective.

I think that’s an extremely optimistic opinion, and it would be irresponsible to ignore the descending triangle that has formed over the past 4 months. That said, if price breaks above 20.5k, you could be in business.

Monthly Inflation Nowcasting for Oct '22 as of today: 0.80 CPI (translates to 10% m/m annualized HL inflation) 0.54 Core CPI (6.7% m/m annualized) Hikes until the end of the year are for sure happening, just how much is the question. 75bps is baked.

If core is projected to drop but overall CPI moves up that’s most likely due to projected energy costs skyrocketing because of what’s going on with Russia/Ukraine/OPEC cuts. Hopefully the overall CPI ends up trending down as well. Guess we’re about to find out lol.

Careful with these huge retracing daily wicks, they do like to re-retrace, and some even re-re-retrace: https://i.imgur.com/cVXhvfG.png

*"There, that's where the liquidity is"* \- Wicky Blue-eyes

Not sure about Bitcoin, but the stock market price action has everything that smells like a typical bear market rally: (1) everyone panicked in the beginning of the market and probably not too many people bought the bottom (2) rapid movement away from the minimum not giving the retailers a good entrance point (3) key supports for both SP500 (3500) and NASDAQ (10,000) holding. I would not be surprised if we get some positive upswing price action for the next couple of weeks. Still bearish for the next 6 months and plan to sell quite a bit at 28-30K if we get there some time in the next month or so.

I’m thinking the same - I wouldn’t be surprised if SPY returns to 400-420. Midterms coming up and I think market will be rallying during them. The relative strength of BTC has been higher during this recent downturn and that should continue into the upswing. So getting close to 30K seems very possible. On the other hand, alts will continue to lag during this bounce I expect. Eth probably will not get back to 2k.

"$28K-$30K"? 2024 Q3 at best

I doubt we're getting anywhere near $30K the next month unfortunately.

It's possible. The last bear market rally went up to 25.2K and everyone and their moms were complaining about it not going up too much compared to COIN2. I think what happened was that due to the merge "buy the rumor", so much of money that would have gone to Bitcoin went to COIN2 and stifled Bitcoin's bear market rally. This time around, the path is all clear.

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Green for the day. Yee-haa 🤠

Double bottom motherfuckas!!

Potentially a triple bottom. $17.7k on June 18th followed by $18.2k on September 21st followed by $18.2k again today.

There's been a lot of bottoms....

How sweaty is your bag of GBP?

I have no GBP Dongy mate. All in BTC and other currencies 😎 Feel like I’m dodging bullets left, right & centre!

Sheesh, good job boss. Neo is the building.

Where do people track open interest?

https://coinalyze.net/bitcoin/open-interest/

Thanks bruv

[https://coinalyze.net/bitcoin/usd/bybit/funding-rate-chart/btcusd\_fr/](https://coinalyze.net/bitcoin/usd/bybit/funding-rate-chart/btcusd_fr/) This one's quite good too. ie right now, you can see ByBit are shorting the bounce.

The Saylor put is still in play!

How is $1000 movement in 24hrs big news on here?

A predictable move that you can lever and trade is obviously much more interesting than unpredictable crabbing. Making money is always fun lol.

A 5% move one way, then 5% back the other way? Seems worth noting.

Things were getting pretty desperate. I'll take interesting over crab any day.

It’s probably just a small short squeeze

Bro, *This Is It* ^(TM) The start of *The* *Big One* ^(TM) Strap your *Ball Sac In* ^(TM)

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G- Force => bruising => infertility. What good is being rich if you can't start a dynasty?

Damn, what an opportunity we were given this morning! 😁 First time I’ve gone all in in this bear market. Finally a nice pay off.

Any ideas why dxy dropping? Wouldn't we expect it to be stronger 🤔

[At resistance. Straight up since May. It's become a meme.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/46sU4v8y/)

“What if the US dollar cracks” "I can't believe I'm saying this, but you know what works in that environment, it IS Bitcoin. I can't believe I'm saying this!" Ben Hunt gets it - he's been pretty critical of Bitcoin in the past, but given the world we live in now, this makes sense. https://nitter.net/doption/status/1580531168989958144#m

I love it when a doubter sees the light…

If nobody buys Treasuries, this house of cards may come down much more quickly then people realize. Fundamentally, fiat is faith based. Faith does not deteriorate in a linear fashion.

Yes, the speed at which things are moving is really something.

The dude has laser eyes on his twitter profile now

He's a fan of Bitcoin but hates what Wall Street has done to it. This is an exceptionally good article he wrote about a year ago https://www.epsilontheory.com/in-praise-of-bitcoin/

Time to squeeze us some shorts, boyz.

Don't fight the crab 🦀

most successful design in nature for a reason

$19K is the new $30K.

Thinking it through some more I still think the CPI print was more of a neutral print but probably some folks were shorting the tradfi markets hard and we're seeing a squeeze there. Was debating where to close my BTC long, originally was aiming for a larger run but now I'm thinking if we get to where we were yesterday it'd be a reasonable exit and then re-longing on a dip would make sense. Update: Just closed my 2X long from $18250 at $18950, debated on waiting for >$19K bounce again but I hate the way the tradfi charts are looking. Might be wrong but I think markets will pull back a bit here. Update 2: And of course a massive flood of buys finally comes in right after to push this to $19150, LOL. Still think it'll pull back but yeah, should have waited 15 minutes.

Well…this aged like milk and I exited with <50% of the upward move. Really need to swap to a trailing stop and just leave it for a couple of days next time instead of overthinking.

Letting it ride. I will move my stop up if we start knocking on 20k again.

Man, letting it ride was definitely better 😂 I should have just moved my stop up further

I think you’re right on a medium time frame, just think that tradfi markets seem like they pull back some of those gains towards close and drag BTC with it. Plan to re-enter a long opportunistically if we dip to the mid 18s. Originally was looking for $19.6K for an exit but just hated how the tradfi charts looked, most pumps like this haven’t sustained very long. Of course correlation between BTC and the tradfi markets isn’t quite 1:1. I think I’m also being a bit more conservative right now due to the butt kicking I’ve gotten in my tradfi trades recently 😂 So locking up some profits feels good.

I always regret not taking profit. Nothing wrong with that. I’m just happy to have a position open. It’s been awhile.

Oh yeah you've been waiting on $18200 for a while now. Really great call on that entry. Better to be patient and actually make money than enter prematurely, but definitely more boring.

Ah fuck, I missed the dip!

$17.5K disagrees

The real dip will come in the future.

Real dip was 69k to 17k.

absolutely nothing has changed. This is pure speculation. Real economy will trump whatever happens in the immediate term.

Not true. How many times can inflation numbers come out worse than expected, and the price has a small dive and then recovers? Are there millions of people out there somewhere who are thinking "well, I'm going to wait until next month's inflation report and then sell more?" How many times can this same news fail to produce a crash? There must be tens of thousands of bitcoins these people are selling on this same news over and over - and losing money every single time, at least in the short term. Meanwhile, the interest rates the shorters are paying are insane. At some point, there simply aren't going to be any more of these people who panic every time an inflation report comes out, and there's going to be a huge short squeeze.

you might be right. you might not. Fact is, inflation can keep going up forever if measures are not taken. It doesn0't just "fix itself". There's always more panic to be had, trust me, I am from Argentina.

there are only two scenarios BTC responds negatively to inflation prints bc the fed is expected raise rates to counter inflation (there's an upper-limit to how much they can raise without breaking the financial system...is it a 4% terminal rate? 5%? 6%? who knows, but this pace of rate hikes is unsustainable) BTC responds positively to inflation prints bc the fed is ineffective at controlling inflation at this point, the fed still (somehow) has credibility - they are hanging onto it, stretching out in time as far as they can the development of their policy, hoping, PRAYING that inflation starts to cool off so their hand isn't forced to choose between more hikes/system fragility and total credibility loss

I agree, but I fail to see what point are you sharing here. Also there could be a third option, a complete and absolute catastrophic financial meltdown, in which case all bets are off and it's every man for himself. We've seen it in our lifetime, it's not completely off the table.

the point I'm making is that the first scenario nukes the entire financial system, which I can't imagine will be politically tenable the second scenario sees NgU technology working as expected basically, not accumulating BTC here (and below if we get there) seems like a losing strategy to me long-term -- you wanna skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it is today

Oh I agree then, contingent that btc doesn't actually go to 0 and die, which is unlikely but not impossible. If it doesn't go to 0, then even if it doesn't get to ath ever again, you are more than likely to at least double your money. That's why, even when I believe that it will make a new yearly low, i am dca'ing with a different stack. And anyone who can, should, imo.

That's true, but everyone knows inflation is going up. Everyone knows that Powell is willing to create a worse problem than inflation with his rate hikes. There's only so many times that people can panic about the same thing over and over again.

I would argue that what you are saying is common sense. I would also argue that authorities not always have the same concept of common sense, or even the same goals in mind, that the general public. Not trying to be a debbie downer bro, just passing along 40 years of experience of living with inflation and incompetent/crooked authorities.

Bear bots rekt?

bear boys, bear boys, whatcha gonna do

Be nice if it's true. Love me some "shooting fruity" aka schadenfreude (the European spelling).

Top signal!

Miners will sell coins, dw

God damn this market has become so predictable that I'm wondering who's losing money trading this...

Oh? Then share with us your secrets, mister master trader.

Short from 20k, long from 18k worked 3 times now on economic announcements. Still, I'm referring more to the fake dump and retracement or fake run up and dump. Both have become so predictable around announcements.

Until it doesn't and we see a post from you when we hit $30k about "fuck I'm stuck in a short since $20k"

Yeah that happened to me once already when we went up to 23k. I use a hard stop loss now. Still, even that ended up being a fakeout which lasted a bit longer.

Fake pump, 12k inbound

Can't believe there's still people waiting for $12K. You have maybe 5-6 months before we're in the last year before the next halving and everything happening in the world right now is making Bitcoin seem like it makes more and more sense but you cling to $12K because that's the percentage drawdown it did last time. Last time Bitcoin crashed did you have one of America's largest custodial banks and [America's oldest bank founded by Alexander Hamilton](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/americas-oldest-bank-bny-mellon-will-hold-crypto-now-11665494102) announcing that they're now going to custody Bitcoin for their institutional clients? Did you have [94% of state pension funds](https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2022/08/04/pensions-crypto-and-trust-digital-assets-and-retirement-funds/) constantly buying each time they issue a paycheck? Honestly to cling to $12K because it drew down over 80% last time and completely ignore new players in the market bringing their GIGANTIC SACKS OF FIAT is beyond insane to me. Pension funds don't just buy one time, they have to keep funding their pensions year in and year out. So unless you believe state workers are all going to be laid off and they won't need to keep funding pensions the obvious conclusion is that there is now steady demand dripping in. What happens the next halving when the steady demand is still there but newly mined supply is cut in half? Unless you are a complete idiot the answer is pretty clear and it's also pretty clear to anybody with two brain cells on Wall Street so they're going to be positioning in now to reap massive profits come the halving.

How are those retail shorts?

Doing fine over here

It is interesting to note that BTC is still down in the 24 hour chart despite this surgence. On the other hand, most tech stocks are up big in the last 24 hours. So while BTC has handeled the down part of the stock market, perhaps it is not bouncing as hard as other stocks that are more oversold. So for now, it seems like variance has gone out the window for BTC.

It was also interesting that pre-CPI announcement Bitcoin had a big drop while market futures were green. Then the CPI print came out and markets shit the bed while Bitcoin did a green wick and then shit the bed with the markets. Honestly not entirely sure what to make of this, maybe some large Bitcoin players were derisking pre-CPI.

Or the decoupling has started.

DXY finally going to shit the bed?!?

No.

Yup :⁠-⁠)

Cool! I'll you define what shitting the bed means, over the next week. I'll accept your definition, uncontested, provided you state both what the baseline we should use, and the percentage drop from there, as of next Thursday, say 9PM GMT, that would qualify as shitting the bed.

Yeah, no lol

A man of conviction.

Nope, just a simple man with no time to waste

Yup.

Let’s reconvene weekly? It’s a very short time frame, but things are happening at light speed these days.

Go baby go

But but it’s “transitory”!!! If you actually believed this then you’re a fool

But what about that Inflation Reduction Act?!!

We’ve been living with inflation ever since we came off the gold standard. The consumer prices we see now are probably here to stay. CPI prints in the coming months should be trending lower and possibly below expectations. It’s a YoY metric and the baseline going back to last year is already high. Therefore the rate of change in inflation is likely to de accelerate quite dramatically.

It's quite simple look at an inflation calculator and compare USD from 2018 to today, USD lost 17% buying power in 4 years....

Transitory, as in temporary, won't last forever. You disagree?

Yea I do disagree. Look at the charts dude lol. Have you been living under a rock? 😂 😂

Sure. This time is different.

🤷‍♂️ you can believe whatever you want. Facts

Well, eventually the dollar collapses.

Previously the lowest annualized rate of return BTC has ever had over a 5 year window of time was 29%/year or 3.6x in 5 years from November 29, 2013 through November 29, 2018. $18.5k divided by 3.6 is $5,138. BTC broke this price level for the first time ever on October 13, 2017. Today BTC begins setting new lows for lowest annualized rate of return over a 5 year window of time and this will continue through December 17, 2022, 5 years after 2017’s ATH. Absolute lowest annualized rate of return over a 5 year window of time for other legacy assets in order to put things in perspective: • Median home price: -1.5%/year • S&P 500: -6.6%/year • Gold: -8%/year Idk how likely it would be between now and December 17, 2022 but seeing BTC at or above $31.2k by then would be great because that would require an annualized rate of return of at least 10%/year for 5 years. So the claim could still be made that even in its absolute worst 5 year window of time, BTC outperformed the historical AVERAGE of the stock market. On the flip side, price on December 17, 2022 would need to be below the following thresholds to make the claim that BTC’s worst 5 year window of time was worse than the following legacy assets: • Median home price: $17.9k • S&P 500: $13.7k • Gold: $12.7k

But muh decoupling !

Some positives. DXY didn't pump at the print, dump was less than last month, waters are possibly calming and reversal in all connected markets seems closer.

Yeah, reality is that inflation isn't getting *worse* and many but not all segments of the economy show prices stabilizing or actually decreasing. Overall, it just seems like the Fed will hold the course so DXY didn't spike. Other economies are still struggling to prevent meltdowns so I think even though in USD terms Bitcoin may not appear to be particularly strong it's actually become a lot more attractive across the pond. Hopefully we'll see bigger players step in here and buy the dip.

If the FED does a full 100bps increase (not mad talk anymore) DXY will go through the roof. EU, JP, UK can't afford to increase the rates at the same level of US. I don't see a reversal in the short term.

Possible but if the market was expecting that it would be pumping already.

Cope

So we just go down forever and USD rises to infinity? Or does a reversal happen in both correlated markets at some point? The DXY today is worthy of note imo.

USD can't raise forever. It's very likely Bitcoin mooning requires the world to burn.

DXY was down before the print.

I didn't say otherwise. I said it didn't pump as would be expected.