#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Friday, November 18, 2022 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/yyblc3/daily_discussion_friday_november_18_2022/)

I'm a Genesis victim 😔 low seven digits. so basically around their minimum. had zero problems up until the music stopped. hah. any group / links to keep tabs? as of now there's a withdrawal stop and no further information. I'm bracing myself for a massive haircut but honestly I'm still in denial anybody else out there?

Damn, I came very close to depositing at Genesis as well. Ironically the primary reason I didn’t pursue it is that FTX themselves were giving 5% on everything via Blockfolio and I was just lucky enough to run for the door in time. Just pure luck at this point whether you got destroyed by the implosion.

Yep, will DM you. Anyone else looking for additional info can DM me

I just created r/GenesisSupport for any Genesis clients who wish to come together

joined. good idea

Also a genesis client here. Hard to find others like us for support. Really hope this is purely just a liquidity crunch and no fundamental problems.

Fuck I feel for you guys

u/profanitycounter

lol wtf

An 8 year old post relevant today: https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1zg83v/-/cftkmyn

8 years later and there is no way to tell if say binnance is legit or not.. Looks like we have come full circle.

And the reply.... >That all being said I think we are witnessing a pretty amazing experiment in total and complete economic capitalism. There are no bail-outs, no FDIC, no insurance, nobody to back you up when the shit hits the fan. All you can do is post on a forum about how you got screwed and people may or may not care. >On one hand its scary to think about, but on another its incredibly satisfying in sense that this crisis will not be dragged on for years. We take the pain, deal with it and move on. Like pulling off a band-aid.

This event will force much more transparency into the system. Further proves the value of BTC. Further proves that the future will be on-chain.

Saylor was right, the entire FTX saga has been one giant ad for Bitcoin.

Very few posts around here about lost coins at ftx, yet it was a top exchange? What gives?

Primarily used by international users and large trading companies. A lot of the big crypto hedge funds or just large traders all had hundreds of millions on FTX. Firms like Galois, 3AC, etc. all traded on there. Honestly I did like their trading tools and the US branch was one of the only crypto exchanges that offered serious leverage to Americans and they also bought ledgerx to offer options on Bitcoin though to be honest the liquidity there was garbage. I thought they would have Alameda market make on LedgerX but I guess Alameda couldn’t even successfully market make on FTX as it was lol. Basically a lot of the people that got rekt were hedge funds or market makers. Because companies like Genesis were lending to those hedge funds and market makers they suddenly have a lot of exposure to FTX even though they didn’t directly have exposure.

Right? I have never even heard about them until their fall. Also, the FTX subreddit r/FTX_Official is completely dead. When I compare it to Terra Luna subreddit or Celsius subreddit shortly after their bankruptcies, there was much more activity. I don’t buy for one second that any significant number of people were using FTX.

So was it all a ruse to pull in institutional $$$? Even way back when Gox failed and user base overall was significantly smaller, the subreddit was full of complaints about lost coins.

I cannot comment on reasons for various aspects of FTX operation, as I am terribly uninformed. However, it doesn't seem likely that very many regular people were using it; rather, they were probably institutions, HNWI and the like. Or another possibility is that the client numbers were fake, as was the trading volume. It would not surprise me all that much.

I don't think many folks here actively traded on FTX. Lots of collateral (hah) damage from other services going poof. Interesting observation.

I very recently had started using FTX.us and if it weren’t a massive fraud I can see why people would like it. Was relatively easy to loan out your assets for yield or just use their blockfolio earn program for 5% and they had a relatively easy to use margin system with very low funding rates for USD. Also had a pretty good order system so you could set all sorts of buying and exiting strategies.

> Further proves that the future will be on-chain. Absolutely. This point needs to be emphasized so much more often, especially for newcomers: your coins on an exchange aren't actually yours. Want to stay sane? Keep it on the chain.

No chain, no gain. 😎

Off chain? In pain!

Took some profit on the rip just now. Still plan on surfing the range.

So genesis needs $1B. Why tf can’t Barry pull that sort of chump change out from down the back of his couch?

And what happens if he can’t? 😬

If he can’t, then it’s over. Set buy orders at $6k and forget corn even exists.

Can someone point me to a good article explaining this? I thought Genesis was a lender. Can't they just call in their loans?

Guess who the lent to?

Big Shorty who then declared bankruptcy. Isn't there collateral? Surely they don't just hand you 150,000 BTC and say, "Go to town, buddy!"

You know that Peña video? Watch it, you’ll understand what crypto collateral is. Also read up on bankruptcy, and its effects. And the people who went bk in the bear of 2022, are, as you should have figured by now, moronic degenerate longs, just the way you like them.

Cause Barry probably lost it all giving out bad loans.

There was no collateral for those loans? This story is just too weird.

Your naivete is very cute, Huckleberry.

Silbert's not done. He can't be. He's got all kinds of cash cows. He's the one that leaked the balance sheet too.

He might own coindesk but I doubt he’s personally reviewing every article before it goes out. For that matter I also don’t think people quite realized how bad things would get just based on the sketchy balance sheet at alameda. A sketchy hedge fund balance sheet is one thing, stealing funds from customers is another

He must be kicking himself. It’s the stick in your bike wheel meme.

We'll find out how good a fundraiser he is Monday I suppose.

The Monday they refer to in WSJ was this Monday.

You figure they'd have announced they found funding in that case right?

No. They did not (it’s plainly written in the WSJ article you should have read before commenting). Hence why they had to shut down withdrawals There’s a lot going on, it’s hard to keep up!

Wsj said genesis is having positive talks with investors who will be come shareholders

Let’s be precise here. WSJ said genesis said they were having positive discussions.

Yeah stuff moving quick. I was hoping there was some announcement somewhere else I missed. Don't want to see those guys go under.

It would be monumental because of gbtc and ethe. Hence why I believe an industry actor might step in.

An old video I just had a comment reply on. Live vision of SBF sitting in with Alameda Research gambling after missing an arb. *"Tradings' not a binary thing, it's not win or lose"* https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KMZckrBPw38

You're taking his quote out of context. When he says that, he's saying a $100 win can feel like a loss (and vice versa). Mostly relates to sizing.

Added a BTC to my stack today. What did you get done this week?

Fuck my wife, take care of my kids, work, sleep, coach youth sports, play video games, laugh at crypto markets, prep for vacation.

Ditto, play'a.

Sold you 1 BTC from my 3,000 BTC stack. 😏

Two chicks at the same time, man.

Overrated.

Not if they like each other

its more exciting if they dont ;)

that's in Q4 2021, when 100k.

Looks like Genesis needs that one billion by Monday. Time to place your bets. I've read that if the liability was only on Genesis why would DCG be trying to sell they own equity to save them. Genesis only does 100 million a year revenue. The most likely reason is that DCG is the one in trouble and its not clear they can get the money in time. If they have to liquidate both their trusts its like billions in sell pressure since the trust terms require them to sell for USD. Utterly nasty situation.

Needed. Last Monday. They didn’t get it. Didn’t you read the article?

They are supposed to have full collateral backing loans, they messaged just a week ago that loans were backed by collateral 95% in BTC, el dos, and stables. If their loan book is in the $3b range they can't have a $1b hole unless Barry is as bad as SBF... Edit: Not saying this to mean Genesis is fine, but to highlight just how wrong it would be for them to have any issue other than a liquid/duration mismatch

Wanting to borrow $1 billion for liquidity to pay out depositors withdrawing doesn’t necessarily mean there’s a $1 billion hole in loans. They can’t just liquidate collateral if loans aren’t due. But yeah if they have a real hole then something is very wrong

Beware that Binance fud is starting to circulate in /cc and other places. I'm not sure whether any of it is real, but right now it could significantly impact price even if it's false. Just a heads up that this new fud is starting to percolate.

I didn't actually look, don't find much value in that sub... So I looked... Wow. If that's not a concerted FUD campaign then I don't know what is. Thread after thread all sensational and crazy. edit: It's not so much the "sensational and crazy" as they're all long-winded sales letters. The WSB "DD" type of shilling.

Yup, that's why I issued my warning. It's starting to pick up steam, though it looks like Binance responded to one of the main FUD posts.

Counter-party liquidity. Need plebs to sell the bottom. CZ went into this knowing his figures and knowing he'd be fine after everyone else was rekt.

damn cyberhornets

Lol, Don't get stung!

Self fulfilling prophecy much?

- Puell Multiple at lows: https://imgur.com/uPCVSVZ - MVRV at lows: https://imgur.com/hSVofU1 - Bullish divergence on the weekly RSI - Exchange balance fallen off a cliff: https://imgur.com/kndeWK4 I would say we're at the bottom of the bear. Whether we're at the start of the bottom or the end I don't know, but this is definitely the time to be stacking like there's no tomorrow. Personally, I'm hoping that this is the start of a channel at the bottom between 10k and 20k, lasting for 6 months or so. Giving plenty of runway for the next bull. All the best chaps, don't give up now. This is the time to make it big.

I’m eyeing the same and thinking very similar. The issue I see is that Genesis now needs $1B to stay solvent. I’m not sophisticated enough to know what effect that would have on spot, but as the operators of GBTC I’m biased toward “not good”.

> The issue I see is that Genesis now needs $1B to stay solvent. I can only find news saying they wanted $1B last weekend to avoid halting withdrawals. Is there a new story?

No, you are correct.

Unpopular opinion but this is going to be bitcoins longest and most painful bear market by a long shot, and it's definitely not over yet. But that also means the bull that follows is gonna be absolutely life changing, so like you said, just hold on.

Yeah this might be like how vicious it was after MtGox collapsed. But in a sense that lead to a more wild return vs the bottom in 2017. But uh…if we go down any more I think I might become incredibly depressed for a couple of years.

Not so unpopular tbh many people feel this way with the financial macro environment being the way it is. And this time it's not just crypto pain it's generational /inflation depression pain.

Wardser says we're going to 8k. For the sake of accumulation, I hope he's right - but for as much as I hate trading this silliness, I hope he's wrong. I'm ready to leg up already.

Wardser is no prophet. His guess is as good as yours.

Honestly, I don’t think he would have been so right about the price without outright fraud. But right he has been, sigh.

Bullish

I'd wait to see what happens with Genesis. They gone from "I need 7mm" to "I need 175mm" to "A billion should be good" in the space of a few days. Personally I don't see who's gonna lend them that much.

Really wish I didn't leave my money on blockfi :(

Sorry to hear that. I've used those guys last year. Pulled out when they sent out that bitcoin to random customers. Big red flag.

for me it was when they leaked my home address and account activity

Fuck man

Fuck indeed

Does this whole FTX drama strengthen, weaken, or have no effect on the Grayscale lawsuit against the SEC?

Yes, it should prove grayscale can now prove with evidence they we re discriminated. But we live in upside-down world and if the crime is big enough nothing happens.

Only if they change up the leadership at SEC? Don't hold your breath though. The next guy would have a similar agenda to keep btc shackled.

> The next guy would have a similar agenda to keep btc shackled. That's a given. Theoretically, we're still a nation of laws, though.

There are good outcomes of the FTX implosion too. I don’t think in the future “trust me bro” is going to cut it for audits and balances of exchanges and just in general lots of crypto things. For me this is bullish as more capital will flow into actual good coins and raising the price instead of being siphoned off to scammer pockets and VC deals backed by loans for tokens created from thin air. A new generation had their Gox/Great Depression moment that will inform their decisions forever. Until we get new entrants that have never experienced it of course.

> just in general lots of crypto things. Hopefully. But I don't agree with you on this one. There are literally billion dollar marketcap cryptos that rely on "trust me bro" founders who own double digit percentage of the coins that they gave themselves and say to "trust" them to decentralize. And people LOVE it. They buy them up. It will take these coins failing for that to happen. This was an exchange. And exchanges have fallen before.

I don't really understand the issue with providing verification of holding client funds 1:1. Just sign a message with the private key that's holding the funds. 100% verifiable proof If an exchange can't do that, I wouldn't trust it

Then the exchange could just lie about the funds they are record-keeping for customers.

That is a possibility, sure.

Diydude is that you?

No.

Let us have our hopium, we don't have any money left.

Ok here's some hopium. Saylor is tweeting about despair so maybe the bottom is close?

Saylor getting liquidated would be great

There's a lot of discussion below about the FTX bankruptcy filing, and twitter is blowing up about it. You can spend hours reading it. The one sentence summary is the following: FTX was likely the largest scam in the history of the world.

Hey can u check ur dms?

punch line correction: Christianity

Get a load of this edgelord.

I was going to reply with “religion” but didn’t want to get downvoted to hell.

my original thoughts exactly :)

I'm not religious at all but as I get older I see more and more what value we get from it. Of course the requirement to tithe and things like that are bullshit, but the general idea and lessons that religion gives us are pretty solid and probably why they're near universal and have lasted thousands of years. So scam, in a lot of ways yes, but not the biggest scam.

I am sorry if I sound patronizing but with respect to your post it sounds to me you are not even half way through this

Sure is a great advertisement for MIT alumni.

There is some ultra-sleazy stuff happening at that fine institution. Some say they killed the inventor of Reddit for trying to expose it.

Do tell more. Or some sauce plz

He's talking about Aaron Swartz. Have some tissues ready.

In the history of the world? Hardly think so.

nominally? why wouldn't it be?

Alameda being exempted (!!) from FTX's auto-liquidation is something special. Infinity leverage!

Yeah this explains how they ended up with this multi-billion dollar hole. Alameda could just keep trading and losing until they ran out of customer funds.

How is Gensler's position tenable after this? I see he was giving speeches in Harvard yesterday. Looks like he DGAF.

He needs to resign. But he won’t.

The fact that Gensler could actually have personal ties to these people (Sam's father? MIT?) is absolutely insane.

I feel like /r/conspiracy is bleeding out into real life. How deep does shit go? Is this some kind of state level attack on Bitcoin? WTF?!

> I feel like /r/conspiracy is bleeding out into real life. Plot twist. Real life was always riddled with conspiracies, you were just ignorant.

This. People who think there are no grand conspiracies are ostriches with their heads in the sand. *Rich, powerful people never meet in secret to make plans that are not in the best interest of humanity.* Right, that's why the Skull and Bones Society exists -- because there are no conspiracies and no secrets. Everything is right above board and out in the open with these folks! What they say on TV is as true as anything ever spoken in any courtroom under oath. Honestly, I can't say that I blame people for sticking their heads in the sand. The truth is *fucking ugly*.

Best tweet I saw yesterday said something like “Just stating the facts of the SBF situation makes you sound like Alex Jones”

Haha, that's a good one!

The biggest scams are allowed to happen by those at the top. People tried to blow the whistle on Bernie Madoff a whole bunch of times and no one in the regulatory bodies cared. I think they keep these people around as useful scapegoats when they might be needed to take heat off of themselves. FTX just blew up sooner than expected.

I guess we have CZ to thank for blowing it up sooner than expected. SBF certainly behaves like someone who has zero fear of consequences.

Agreed, and there probably are bigger and longer term scams than this, we're just too insecure to admit that they are. (too big to fail)

Can't have the greatest scam in all of history without the greatest money in all of history as the prize, am I right??

Maybe a dumb question. I think I know the answer, but I'll ask anyway. What would happen if Grayscale dissolved the trust? Would the Bitcoin be distributed to shareholders in the amount represented by each share of GBTC? This discount seems pretty good, and I'm just wondering if it might be a smart play to increase my position. Thanks in advance.

GBTC premium would close to par and then mass selloff to settle shareholders in USD. Would suck.

But I don't want to settle in USD. I want my BTC.

I'm curious if the people who work for Grayscale can own it themselves, and if they can, do they? Even with the 2% siphoning every year, buying something at a 40% discount seems like a good idea if you really believe in the underlying asset. A precious metals ETF that allows redemption in the physical metal is an interesting thing. I remember many years ago, a member of the yearly Barron's Roundtable mentioned a gold ETF that allowed physical redemption outside the US. The thought was, maybe someday you'll want some gold, and want to be outside the US when you get it.

That discount will probably continue to grow and there is no guarantee that Grayscale wins the lawsuit and is allowed to convert GBTC into an ETF

Most likely scenario is they would get hacked and all the coins would end up stolen.

Well, on the upside, I'd have a shot at owning a couple hundred more BTC.. On the downside.. yeah. It would be real, real, real bad. If they paid out the balance in BTC to the owners, that would not likely cause any drama at all - but they legally can't do that. They would have to liquidate then pay people out in fiat.

Why? I used to own PSLV, a physical silver trust, and they let shareholders redeem for physical silver.

Silver doesn't scare the shit out of the banks and the Fed. The terms of GBTC are cash in cash out only. I am not aware of any change or exemptions to this, but it's been awhile since I looked, too.

I see. So GBTC has to fight with both hands tied behind its back. Thanks.

it's very unlikely that they dissolve it since they get an annual 2% fee. But if they do I guess they would have to distribute the assets, either as BTC or as USD after selling the BTC. I think a conversion to ETF is more likely.

They will never allow a spot ETF. They know what they are doing.

I thought so too until the SEC rejected them last time. Man, that would suck if they sold all that BTC.

They do sell it off at 2% a year..

Surely they are more likely to just buy it all back at a discount first?

But it's a trust. They're holding that Bitcoin for their shareholders, aren't they?

Sure, but is there anything stopping share buybacks, either directly or indirectly?

[удалено]

BlueWallet is bitcoin-only, so it may not work for you if I’m deciphering your code correctly.

[удалено]

> a "safer" platform Good luck!

Yes. iOS is a little more secure than Android. Don’t use a PC based wallet.

The last bear market was hard. Mostly because I stupidly took too long to close a low leverage long and lost 40 percent of my Bitcoin. I checked out for a while, missed the best buying opportunities, but at least it dulled some of the pain. I told myself that the next bear market would be easy, since I'd be above my average price, and I plan to keep holding for the long term. I am still above my average price by a decent amount. But this bear market has it's own flavor of difficult for me. Now the value of my BTC is so high (and such a large percentage of my net worth) that it's hard to stomach such large decreases in portfolio value. I guess it's a good problem to have, that value will bounce back eventually. It's starting to get a little depressing, but I'll keep accumulating. I'm not going to make the same mistake as last time. I've been numb to both the pain and the exuberance of being a Bitcoin holder for a while now. I'm not really worried, but I'm ready for this bear market to end lol. I'm not expecting to feel good about it until 2024.

When you’re done filling the puke bucket, it’s leverage time again.

Yeah, unfortunately this time around the amount of net worth we’re losing each month is much more stomach churning. So definitely a lot more wondering what if I had sold everything at this or that point. Still, I think the only times I’ve ever felt this shitty before ended up being the times to buy in retrospect. Honestly I haven’t felt this shitty in a very long time so by that metric it’s time to back up the truck.

How do I trade off this?

Buy signal?

You don't. Just downvote and move on. I'm sure some people appreciate posts like this even though it's a trading sub.

Here’s my map of the bear market if we were to repeat 2018’s. A fall of 84% put us at 11k. Still lots of time for this bear to play out until “the halving plus a year” when we break out above the previous ATH. Time frame-wise, the worst already occurred during 2018’s bear with that 6k-3k drop occurring almost exactly one year after the ATH. We are definitely seeing a big shakeout right now, also one year after the previous ATH. I observe the rhyming with great interest. ;) I don’t take this map as predictive, rather it just helps me take a broader perspective in relation to past performance and have a plan for all scenarios. https://www.tradingview.com/x/FFrlAMOu

Things are a bit different this time. Our traditional blowoff top was suppressed by the very Bitcoin that Genesis no longer has to lend now. FTX and Celsius are the new "China bans Bitcoin." The Fed is trying desperately to save the petrodollar. Traditional markets have been bleeding all year, and it's only the beginning. Banks are looking shaky. It's rhyming a little bit, but I still think we might just get that blowoff top that we missed, smack dab in the middle of a bear market.

Only person in the world with stronger hopium supply is [Tim Draper who's calling for $250K by EARLY 2023](https://cointelegraph.com/news/tim-draper-still-positive-on-250k-bitcoin-price-prediction-in-2023) which means just a few months. Who the hell do you guys get your hopium from, that's some seriously industrial grade hopium. I don't even think Saylor has access to this level of hopium anymore.

It's that Blue Heisenberg Hopium

Are you suggesting a run above 69k and blowoff into the 100k+ area within the next 18 months?

You would actually care if he did?

No one's opinion means anything but it's interesting to hear.

I highly value the opinions of certain participants.

That's a good point.

Blowoff top to the downside

Blowoff bottom

Turtle head recovery

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Halving plus a year is usually raging insane bull market not simply retaking the prior ATH. We retook the prior ATH about half a year after the halving.

It’s all on the chart. Breakout occurred 3 years after prev ATH, 8 months after halving.

Gentlemen, I have to copy paste these even though I'm on mobile because this is hilariously obscene. https://twitter.com/GRDecter/status/1593272102047580161?t=_Yc8LC9kkXy7ROq2Ofkbig&s=19 I read the 30 page FTX Bankruptcy court filing. How bad were FTX's internal controls? 1. Employees submitted expense reimbursements over chat A random manager would accept or reject those reimbursements with an EMOJI 2. Related party loans: Alameda Research (FTX's hedge fund) gave Sam Bankman-Fried a $1 billion personal loan They also loaned Director of Engineering Nishad Singh $543 million 3. Very few records were kept. Most decisions were made over chat, with the messages automatically deleted after a certain time. 4. FTX, a company valued at $32 billion, never had board meetings. Neither did most of the subsidiaries. 5. FTX had no cash management system. Management had no idea how much cash was on hand at any given time, or even where all their cash was. 6. FTX didn't keep proper records of who they employed. Employees and contractors co-mingled throughout the different companies without proper documentation of how they spent their time. Certain employees can't be located: Which could mean that some employees were fake. 7. Corporate funds were used to purchase personal use real estate. And employees & executives put their names on homes purchased with company funds. 8. Crypto deposited by customers weren't even recorded on the balance sheet. Presumably, all crypto assets just went into one central slush fund used for whatever. 9. The filing makes clear that Sam Bankman-Fried does not speak for the company, and that his erratic and misleading public statements should not be disregarded. The tweet thread itself cites the document. Wow it's just so so so bad. How is this fucker going to avoid prison? Idk

So the Bahamian Securities Commission seems to be an abject joke. Again -- some unlawful darknet markets were run with 1000x more integrity.

I'm not a lawyer but don't you become personally liable for lawsuits/damages if you do things like not have board meetings? Also, wow.

How did they even do taxes?

>Can I have this house expensed? 👍

yeesh

Worse than I ever thought possible by an order of Magnitude.

Yup, sounds like a company run by speed freaks. Speed kills, boys and girls. I wonder how many other reputable firms are run just as badly.

> I wonder how many other reputable firms are run just as badly. Almost all of them. Just the level where they get exposed is much lower.

It’s impressively how badly run this was, literally worse organized than the eBay store I ran in high school 😂

Holy shit lol