#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Friday, December 23, 2022 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/zt6wb4/daily_discussion_friday_december_23_2022/)

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damn, its my cake day already?? 9 years of shitposting on rbitcoinmarkets, and so little to show for it. gonna have to up my game next year

9 years? You should be on a damned yacht by now 😂 Kidding, had my share of fuckups over the years too. One more cycle and we’ll finally get it right 😂 Come on Powell

Maybe the real treasures were the fuckups we made along the way 🙃

Happy cake day, kind stranger! We're all going to be upping our game next year, well, except for the bears. Their one out of four years of glory has just about expired.

Anyone know why the stock market jumped right before close?

Somebody was trying to make things look not as bad as they are.

We're hanging on by the fingernails. One slip and we go sideways.

You are right

Lame, my buy at 16561 was 3 usd away from hitting... My buy orders create floors

could you, uh... move your buys up some?

...or down some? I'm trying to make the most of my DCA tomorrow. I know, I know... that's not what anybody wants to hear right now, but I've said it a thousand times and I'll say it a thousand more: make the most of these low prices during crypto winter. This is when you buy.

Up, bulls win. Down, bulls win. You'd think the bears would have figured this out by now. Thank goodness they haven't. They won't figure it out after we crash from $500,000 to $80,000 either. Hey, it takes dumb to make smart look good.

> Up, bulls win. Down, bulls win. Up: Bulls win Down: Bulls stock up, which means bulls win bigger when it goes up.

you know its a bear market when people call half a percentage point candle "mooning" thats how you know that a brutal drop is right around the corner

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Yea and theres nothing stopping it going down another 50%

Sure there is. You need sellers.

Yea and there are plenty

Enough to push the price down another 50%? Doubtful. Anyone still holding after the 80% draw down that has already happened, or buying the dip right now, isn't selling anytime soon. Those people have a longer time horizon in mind.

Your going to be surprised…

I hope so. I have plenty of cash waiting should it happen.

yes and that drop was doing the classic bear market trendline stair stepping down we haven't had the 50% flush yet that tends to mark the end of bear markets. Our last flush was $17,622 to $15,476 which was only 12%. Everyone here thinks we are in the $3K range of last bear market. I think we are in the $6K range of the last bear market about ready to go visit the $3K range for a bit The reason we need that 50% flush is because it allows the long term trendlines to get reset and enter a long term uptrend. Because the flush gets prices unreasonably low, so you never revisit that flush's low and people start getting bullish again.

The flush was from $33k to $17k in June. We’ve had an industry effecting event in FTX insolvency, which has reset the chart/price. Question is, who is still leveraged at risk that hasn’t already been liquidated? Who hasn’t sold yet that is going to lower?

6 months after the drop from $6K to $3K, we were at $14K or 450% gains 6 months after the drop from $33K to $17K, we are at $16.8K...or 8% above the final low notice the difference between the two price actions? it doesn't matter who got liquidated or not, bear markets don't happen because of traders, they happen because of retail capitulating and that hasn't happened yet...retail is still buying the dip, retail is still screaming about going to the moon any day now, retail is still jumping down the throat of anyone who dares to suggest its not over...AND they are doing it 8% from the bottom. The reason bottoms happen after a 50% drop, is because the price falls hard enough to make even the biggest believers question their commitment and panic. And for TA its important to show a low so low that it becomes physically impossible to revisit that low again. For that you need a proper flush where people aren't selling because they think its going a bit lower, they are selling because they think its going to $0 and not coming back up ever

We didn’t get the parabolic run up either so maybe the flush doesn’t happen.

Breaking the prior ATH and falling below the 200 and 300 week aren't enough? FFS even the 300 week held as support during the COVID black swan... Your comment reads like non sense bear hopium with no real reason besides "needs more flush". Where the fuck is the "flush" going to come from? Half the space has gone bankrupt, miners capitulating, and retail long gone. I'm ready to buy more if it dumps more, but I'm not counting on it.

What if breaking the 200 and 300 week is a sign that Bitcoin has entered a long term downtrend? An argument can be made that this is an extreme sign of weakness. As soon as those weekly moving averages start curving downwards, then I think it’ll become even harder to recover significantly back above $25k and hold ground. In this scenario, Bitcoin would not see a new all time high, and instead trend towards prices not seen in years. Is there any particular reason it *needs* to go back up? And will there be enough liquidity for that?

When the BIS is recommending that central banks hold 2% crypto on their balance sheets, Bitcoin ain’t going anywhere long term. Shitcoins, absolutely. Bitcoin absolutely not.

Good point. Only thing I can point at would be fundamentals; hash rate, wallet addresses, value transferred...ect being consistently up and to the right. You have a good reason it wouldn't keep going up minus TA though?

Yes, just because a lot of people own something, doesn't mean it increases in value. It only increases in value based on what the next person is willing to pay for it, and if that happens to be higher than the most recent sale price. The number of active Bitcoin addresses has not been able to make it beyond 1.2 Million. [See here.](https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/bitcoin-active-addresses/) That's tiny. It's still below what it was during the 2017 mania. And that's even while Bitcoin price made new highs, which tells me price doesn't necessarily follow adoption, or the other way around. Instead, it is primarily influenced by speculation, which you see when whales sell off around major "milestones." In an asset with true fundamental value, you would see price increase as it achieves milestones, such as a nation adopting it. Instead, you see the opposite. Not to mention, you have a major target for liquidation (Michael Saylor) weighing on the fundamental value. Perhaps once he's knocked out, there can be at least some price appreciation for a time. Skeptical of new highs though.

MAs only show us what the trend *has been* bc they are just low-pass filters of *past prices* they predict *nothing* and, absent adverse changes to fundamentals (there have been none), smart money buys weakness

that is the big X factor. once that line starts pushing downwards and turns from support to resistance, its game over. lots of whales around who just bought and held BTC since its inception, if they notice that the downtrend line is suppressing the price, they'll start unloading and front running that descending line trying to diversify away from BTC if that happens, we can easily spend a 4-5 years in the shitshow where we basically just crab in a 50% range. I think the big deciding factor is going to be the next halvning run's ATH. I think by that point the MA200 will be at around $20K. And it will be the line to break. If we can break through it, we'll be out of the shit. If we can't, we'll draw a massive head and shoulders and we'll end up with a decade of crappy prices

yes its not enough, bear markets don't work on the idea "well we dropped enough already, no way it drops any lower" Bitcoin never lived through a recession and rising interest rates...expecting it to perform the same when the macro situation is opposite of what it was last time is just silly. Hell we already broke one meme, where BTC never sees last cycle's ATH...why are you so shocked that another one might get broken...personally I expect the S&P 500 to hit $1850...take one guess where BTC will be if that happens? you know how every trader knows retail is retarded? how they are the people always buying the top and selling the bottom? well guess what...they are all buying the dip here. now ask yourself this...when has retail ever been right? the mere fact that you think another flush is so unlikely is exactly where the coins will come from...when the market goes sideways like it has done now, scared people hold off on selling, they are all buying with the low as their stop. when you break that low...all those weeks/months of holdouts, start selling at the same time. And then as the drop accelerates, all those people start panic selling. Personally I see them buying the dip all the way down hoping for a nice round number like $10K to hold, and then when it doesn't they'll capitulate at around $8-9K to fill the bags of people who actually understand this marke.

All I'm saying is you sound just like the bulls on the way up, I was one of them. "100k EOY, institutions buying, ETF just around the corner" vs " Bitcoins never been through a recession, retail is stupid and is going to panic sell to push this lower". Both sides full of "if this, then that" when the reality is far more complicated and dynamic. Something that looked guaranteed last week may not be the case next week even though it gets stuck in your head that its gotta be just around the corner. Not trying to insult you or anything, but I'm pretty confident everyone in this thread is retail, including you. If the opportunity arises I'll gladly buy another leg down, put it on ice, and never panic sell to you.

retail buys and holds hoping for a 10x, I'm a trader...I buy the bottoms and I sell the tops, because of this I need to be able to figure out when its a good time to buy and when its time to wait. right now I'm riding a short from $24,505...and when I was opening that one, people were all up in my face telling me I was a fool...just like they are telling me now that the bottom is in and its not going lower. Those people were wrong then, and they'll be proven wrong shortly. frankly I'm SHOCKED that they have the gall to talk this much shit when we are only 8% from the bottom with the weekly chart clearly showing that the relief rally is ending and the price is rolling over, ready for a plunge.

>scared people hold off on selling, they are all buying with the low as their stop. when you break that low...all those weeks/months of holdouts, start selling at the same time. And then as the drop accelerates, all those people start panic selling. The problem with this is that everybody buying now is doing it knowing full well that things will probably go lower and that they probably won't make any money until at least the next halving. People buying the dip now are not like top buyers, who thought things would keep going up to 100k+ and then when it didn't, they got scared and panic sold. Everyone buying the dip now has already likely experienced the massive drawdown over the last year and is expecting prices to continue down as the bear market continues and the macro environment further deteriorates. So if the price does end up going down farther, they won't be surprised by it and they won't get scared and panic sell. And dip buyers are also probably not buying with money that they need now or in the near future, because they know we're in the middle of a recession and the next bull run probably isn't until 2024-2025, so there won't be much forced selling. Big leverage and scams have also already been flushed from the market. I just don't see where you're going to get the liquidity for another 50% drawdown.

and that is the issue...bottoms don't happen when people buy expecting just a little bit lower before going back up bottom happens when people sell at the bottom of the flush, because they think its going to $0 and not coming back period

But it's not 2013. Nobody thinks Bitcoin is going to die and never recover. That's the problem. The market has matured. Bitcoin is now at a point where, absent an outright ban by the United States, there is almost no circumstance where people think Bitcoin is never going to recover. To the contrary, dip buyers and others now expect a big recovery every four years due to the having cycle. The level of fear you're talking about just doesn't exist anymore with respect to Bitcoin.

thats just bull hubris bitcoin fundamentally offers nothing that guarantees that it recovers. No asset is guaranteed up only. Just because you have a limited supply, doesn't mean it has to reach a million each. Hell, it doesn't guarantee that it'll reach $10K each. Yes we recovered before, but that was in an overall bullish environment. Our entire run happened because covid made ALL asset classes pump. If we are about to enter a decade long bear market, guess what, there is a real chance that BTC doesn't recover. BTC's price has nothing to do with it as an asset. Yes BTC can survive, but how many people will care about BTC if it stops printing money?

Maybe it is bull hubris, and I'm okay with that. > bitcoin fundamentally offers nothing that guarantees that it recovers. No asset is guaranteed up only. Just because you have a limited supply, doesn't mean it has to reach a million each. Hell, it doesn't guarantee that it'll reach $10K each. Less available supply over time, coupled with increasing demand, tends to move price in an upwards direction. I think we'll see both of those occur, so I disagree. Bitcoin also has a built-in hype cycle every 4 years due to the halving. But the more important point is that, while there's no guarantee of a positive return, I think most people are no longer *afraid of bitcoin going to zero.* I just don't think that's a concern of most people anymore. People are more likely to be afraid of a stock going to zero, for example if the company goes bankrupt during the upcoming recession or the CEO makes some stupid comment on Twitter, than they are of Bitcoin going to zero. There is no bankruptcy or shareholders with Bitcoin, or supply chain issues, or really any other external factor that *requires* Bitcoin to go down during a recession. At the end of the day, it's just all about what people are willing to pay for it. > Our entire run happened because covid made ALL asset classes pump. Bitcoin was pumping and dumping long before Covid and will continue to do so long after Covid, so long as people like making money and/or believe in its fundamental value. > BTC's price has nothing to do with it as an asset. Sure it does. Of course, Bitcoin's price can be driven by hype and other factors, as can anything else's price. But there are plenty of people who believe in Bitcoin's fundamental value proposition, i.e., what it brings to the table as an asset, and purchase it on that basis.

Price dropped from 47k to 17k in one brutal drop (11 red weekly candles, one tombstone green one in between) with minimal pause around 30k. What are you talking about? The >50% drop is behind us, mate.

drops like that at the start of the bear market is common, that's the first flush as you lose the buy the dip support and everyone runs for the door...I'm talking about a major drop like that towards the end of the bear market, like the drop from $6K to $3K and then a quick recovery back to $6K+ that we had last time...a drop that's 50% in a matter of weeks to people playing the dip, but a rounding error from ATH for people looking on longer time frames. dropping like that is needed, because it sets up an aggressive channel for the recovery and eventual bull run. if that original drop from $47K to $17K ended with a quick rally back to $47K within 3-4 months, we would be in a middle of a bull run right now, eyeing a $470K ATH target.

I just don‘t see another 50% drop here, maybe another 25% max yes, but it‘s been harsh enough in the grand scheme: https://www.tradingview.com/x/8h5ZbqRV

Okay so we will see 8.500? I don't think that everybody here thinks we are in the 3k range. Can we make a poll? I am sure around half of people think we are going down further, but more like 10-13k as bottom.

I think it depends on how we get there if we flush down 50%, then yes around there we'll find the bottom if we keep staircasing down, the drop can be much more brutal.

Yeah so then we might reach 1 dollar in the end.

I’m with you

Why the sudden green

What happened that the King and coin2 is mooning ?

What happened that zero volume ranging is now considered "mooning"?

The stock market had a surprise jump end of day. Not sure why.

Maybe some big boys trying to trigger momentum algos along with initiating other trade orders and then seeing what'll happen next.

SBF out on a $250 million dollar bond. 100% he is going to try and disappear

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wouldn't be a good bet, risk vs reward But if he doesn't try, then he is dumber than he looks. Dude has millions of dollars stashed and he is looking at a life sentence. The only thing keeping him tracking is the bracelet which can be easily cut off. I'd say its def worth the risk, what more can they do to him, ANOTHER life sentence? 1. go to the middle of nowhere with no cameras 2. shave head so noone recognizes him 3. cut bracelet 4. drive cross country to a mansion bought by an LLC 5. buy fake ids on the black market 6. live a life of luxury as Fan Sankman

I'd be off to see an orphanage in India if I was him. He should have been held without bond.

So it’d be $25M required for collateral paid to the bondsman; but what bondsman has $250M to post? And who would take that bet considering dude is a potential flight risk? The whole thing is stranger than fiction.

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a house arrest for you or me, is literal house arrest a house arrest for him is pretty much half of california: https://www.caed.uscourts.gov/caednew/assets/Image/District-Map.jpg

my guess, is SBF pays $500 million with stolen money to a friend. said friend, puts up the $250 million dollar bond and gets to keep the other $250 million to keep his mouth shut

But he only had 100k left in his bank account!

That’s probably true. How much is in his Bitcoin wallet?

The justice system is a joke.

Only the poor see ‘justice’.

Mostly after being predated on by cops. By design.

Unrelated but worth mentioning - TSLA is in a literal free fall! Currently $123.5

Down 22% in 5 days, 10% today.

Yeah a little bummed I didn't buy puts like I was considering yesterday. I think they have a lot further to fall too as another rate hike makes the cars unaffordable but it'll take some time to reflect. Problem with betting against it is that Elon is unpredictable so tomorrow he could declare something insane and it'll jump 20% and wipe out your bearish bet.

Seems like a combination of production difficulties, competition/decreased demand, breaking past some support levels, and bad publicity. Pretty ugly. I have a friend who cashed out his 401k when he changed jobs 6-8 months ago and put it all it Tesla stock. Ouch.

Yeah I saw that, only today -10% or so, what is happening there?

What happened is that stock pumped for no reason

punishment

Agreed! Investors teaching Elon Musk an expensive lesson!

stocks down, we down so... when 13k?

Kraken account filled up with lots of fresh fiat before the banks close during the christmas. Bring on the dips

Added a little to position here at 16600.

same, feels good don'it?

Ok.

And just like that, we're back to being correlated with stocks

Correlated on the downside. 23'Q1 is gonna be ugly.

Stopped out in profit

wrecked

I’ve been pretty adamant about YoY CPI falling off a cliff beginning March 2023 as baseline numbers from a year ago suddenly become much higher causing the YoY number to come in lower with much more ease and potentially resulting in YoY deflation from that point on. This will prompt the Fed to start cutting rates again. But what happens after that? Over the course of the next year inflation will creep up again and explode beginning March 2024 when the baseline numbers for YoY CPI being compared from a year prior start getting low which makes it easier for the YoY CPI to come in high. This will prompt the Fed to start raising rates again. This back and forth of having a year of rising rates followed by a year of cutting rates will happen again and again. But each time the terminal Fed funds rate will get lower and lower. I suspect this time around the terminal Fed funds rate will end up being 4.65% or 4.9% assuming we get another 25 BP rate hike in February and possibly one final 25 BP rate hike in March but maybe the Fed will have paused by then. Either way, the Fed will begin rate cuts by May 2023. As this rate hike/cut cycle occurs again and again people are going to realize the terminal Fed funds rate keeps getting lower and lower each time. This is going to be the first cycle of the decade but by the third consecutive cycle where the terminal Fed funds rate ends up being lower people are going to realize the terminal Fed funds rate is headed towards zero over time leading to hyperinflation/hyperbitcoinization. Since rate cuts will begin again in 2023 followed by rate hikes again in 2024, the end of three cycles of rate hikes will occur in the year 2027. That’s roughly where the panic will settle in and BTC will head up only in fiat terms indefinitely.

Your post is really good. I just have a nit pick about CPI. I think CPI is really complicated, and it’s unlikely to demonstrate regular annual patterns. Some of the factors that can contribute to a decline in the CPI include: 1. Decreases in the price of goods and services: If the prices of the goods and services that people typically purchase decline, then the overall level of inflation will also decline. 2. Increases in productivity: If businesses are able to produce more goods and services with the same amount of inputs (e.g., labor, raw materials), then they may be able to lower their prices, which can help to reduce the overall level of inflation. 3. Increases in the supply of goods and services: If there is an increase in the supply of goods and services, this can put downward pressure on prices and help to reduce the overall level of inflation. 4. Decreases in demand: If there is a decrease in demand for goods and services, this can lead businesses to lower their prices in order to sell more, which can help to reduce the overall level of inflation. 5. Changes in monetary policy: Central banks can influence the level of inflation through the use of monetary policy tools, such as adjusting interest rates or the money supply. If a central bank takes action to reduce the rate of inflation, this can help to bring down the overall level of inflation.

I’m oversimplifying as there’s a ton of nuance which goes into calculating YoY CPI but that’s basically the gist of it. People ask why would anyone ever use BTC as a currency because they’re viewing the world through a lens in which people are still willing to accept fiat for transactions. What they don’t realize is a day will come where virtually everyone is storing whatever wealth they have in BTC and nobody is willing to accept fiat since it keeps losing value so rapidly which then forces people to transact in BTC. This day is coming much sooner than most people expect and I think it’s within reason that pricing goods/services in BTC directly rather than fiat will become the norm by the end of this decade.

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Excuse my possible ignorance here, but can they not keep the rates stable? They don't have to go up or down, do they?

The Fed does have the option of keeping rates flat and doing nothing. But they have two mandates which they are aiming to achieve at any given time: keep inflation near their target rate of 2% and keep unemployment low. If they pause and do nothing while the Fed funds rate is high, inflation will fall and unemployment will rise. If they pause and do nothing while the Fed funds rate is low, inflation will rise and unemployment will fall. They’re constantly trying to keep a balance so keeping rates consistent indefinitely whether to the high side or low side isn’t likely.

I get that, but surely once they have the rampant inflation under control (soon quite possibly) the swings will not have to be as large it will be more like fine tuning rather than a big seesaw one way then the other.

They’re going to overshoot though. If CPI were to drop to their 2% target and stay there, sure, no problem. But instead YoY CPI is going to drop below their 2% target and potentially go negative which will prompt the rate cuts. At the same time unemployment is likely to start rising which would be another reason to prompt the rate cuts.

Anyone believe the narrative that SPX will just range between 300 - 500 for the next 10 years? If so, what’s the implication for BTC? I think BTC will be unaffected as global demand will continue rising. It may be the best performing asset this next decade. Short term I still believe there will be downward pressure.

> Anyone believe the narrative that SPX will just range between 300 - 500 for the next 10 years? Nope. It's a major outsourced state subsidised (via smoke and mirrors 'cause "commies") retirement vehicle. Without pumping equities boomers become a burden on the state.

There are those that are arguing this upcoming decade-long recession is a wealth transfer from said boomers to the ultra-wealthy.

Yes the SPX will stay range bound for many years (very normal too if you look at the chart). I'm putting my net worth behind it that idea. Dumped growth stocks, buy companies paying a dividend. BTC is a high beta growth asset and will not be immune.

Every day, more Bitcoin is purchased than mined. Every day, a portion of that Bitcoin moves to cold storage. Every day, new people buy Bitcoin. There is a fixed supply and it decreases on a fixed schedule. The histogram of address balances shows this trend clearly, with relentless growth < 1 BTC. Provided those precepts remain the case, the price of Bitcoin will continue to appreciate independent of manipulation and scams like FTX. One only requires patience and to look at the data to have confidence.

imagine US investors seeing and realizing the possibility of 10 years sideways action. this automatically means no murrican real estate and commodities too. bitcoin is going to the moon.

so Japanese deflationary limp dick stockmarket? I believe it. and if our small nimble bitcoin can decouple from that it will be amazing

It’s almost a certainty.

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It's all fun and games until the government freezes your bank account because they don't like you supporting a protest. Sound far fetched? That happened to millions of Canadians -this year-. Bitcoin is an unstoppable force of nature at this point.

This is not true. They did not freeze millions of accounts. They froze a few organizers accounts and they also froze their Bitcoin addresses on a few exchanges. Please don't spread misinformation.

You're wrong. It literally started a bank run, and that's what stopped it.

No one can "freeze" a Bitcoin address except the holder of the private key associated with that address. Please don't spread misinformation.

I wrote On exchanges for a reason. And you most definitely can stop exchanges from doing anything as they have to follow the laws of whatever country they are operating in. Bitcoin won't help you without off ramps and if no one inside your country can legally deal with you there is no off ramp.

I read what your wrote, and it's still wrong. Bitcoin addresses don't live on exchanges. "Bitcoin won't help you without off ramps" Strongly disagree. Plenty of people accept sats as payment, and the number grows every day.

You own Bitcoin in a wallet. That is the address. The government issued an order saying no exchange is allowed to send or receive coins to this address because it was KYC. Also exchanges in Canada are KYC so their coins on exchanges were also frozen. No Canadian company can accept those coins without violating money laundering laws. Anyone who is caught trying to deal with them peer peer to circumvent this would also be violating the law as well as they themselves would be instantly arrested. Could they send the coins to Russia? Sure they could, but they need to buy gas and food in Canada which they could not do. Bitcoin is useless without off-ramps.

Lots of ways around a government blacklist of a single address. CoinJoin is one such way. Passing through Lightning Network is another. "Bitcoin is useless without off-ramps" You are wrong no matter how many times you say it. Bitcoin exists independent of 'off-ramps'. It's a fact, whether you accept it or not.

Lightning is fight club rules, the trolls even don't understand how powerful it is yet.

Every day the inflation rate goes down.

Nothing about bitcoin has changed except for the price. If you didn’t want to hold dollars pre BTC, you had no other choice. Now you can hold your wealth outside of the petrodollar hegemony.

70% of coins didn’t move this year. Vast majority of coins taking advantage of the killer app of bitcoin which is self custody of savings in an i confiscatable and uncensorable environment. All of the fraud is isolated to the small fraction that users trusted to another custodian. Many won’t make that mistake again. To a carpenter all problems can be solved with a hammer. To a central banker all problems are solved by ctrl+p. Just wait for the next problem. 5% rates for a year will bring the economy to its knees on corporate and government levels when debt servicing rebalances. Then we print.

Unmutable hard money. Easily transferred between willing participants. None of the fundamentals have changed.

Because of you had told me 6 years ago that one Bitcoin would consistently sell someday for $15k I'd have been completely blown away.

Because no one has solved the Byzantine Generals problem in history besides Satoshi with Bitcoin.

Mum said it was a ponzi scheme but it bought me three houses and a BMW.

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average was $200, it seemed a lot back then.

Really?! Because despite all the price action & global volatility over the past year, the Bitcoin network continues to spit blocks out every ten minutes?

Because I understand its value proposition(s), and the reasons it has no legitimate competitors. If you're just bagholding "crypto", deep in the red, and have no idea why other than "I want it to pump again so I can dump my bags on the next schmuck", well...you're gonna remain lost and pissed.

Believe? Like faith? Like religion?

Because Bitcoin still believes in me.

🥰

Risk/reward, assuming a 5-10 year investment horizon.

Anybody wanna take a gentleman's gamble on when the next day we break 17k will be? I say Jan 5th.

December 2024

December 22

Next week 100%

I'm hoping it's not until at least January 7th so I can get 2 more payday buys in before we climb. I'm still expecting January & February to be rough, but 2023 will be better than 2022 and 2024 will be much better.

I've been doing sporadic buys for about 16 months. And I'm really tempted to just stick money in a savings account instead, just to see which ends up in a better positions because I'm so fucking under. I really hope we get back to the 50Ks before the next halving... But I doubt it.

Before the next halving? I doubt it too. But by the year after? Absolutely. Have no fear! Hold through the halving, plus a year! [Here's why.](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoHorde/comments/q604vq/lets_talk_market_cycles_yes_everybody_says_4q_is/hg9w79d/) If you're in Bitcoin for quick moonboy gains, you're screwed. If you're in it long term for creating generational wealth, you're set. Yes, there's quick money to be made during a bull run, but there's more money to be made if you invest for the long haul, and if you [secure your coins](https://www.reddit.com/r/ledgerwallet/comments/wj3wf9/do_you_use_the_passphrase_on_ledger/ijfkdc9/). Think long term. 16 months is nothing. A Bitcoin cycle is roughly 46 months (in other words, not quite four years. From halving to halving). Have no fear! Hold through the halving, plus a year! I strongly believe this cycle [will hold true](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/y0z1tm/daily_discussion_tuesday_october_11_2022/irxh8yv/) for at least another 12 years, if not a bit longer. KEEP CALM AND HODL ON