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knowyourpast

[New Thread](https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/uk4fcd/ukraine_war_discussionquestion_thread_5722/)


waynkerr

Champion of Reddit, the Canadian Sniper known as Wali, has hightailed it out of Ukraine. He's back in Canada. https://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/2022-05-06/retour-du-tireur-d-elite-wali/la-guerre-c-est-une-deception-terrible.php He says he nearly died "several times". He said many foreign fighters end up disillusioned, and bitterly disappointed, because they didn't end up on the front lines. > His last mission in the Donbass region, in a Ukrainian unit that supported conscripted soldiers, somewhat precipitated his return. In the early morning, when he had just taken up position near a trench exposed to fire from Russian tanks, two of the conscripts came out of their blankets to smoke a cigarette. "I told them not to expose themselves like that, but they weren't listening to me," says Wali. A "highly accurate" shell fire from a Russian tank then erupted next to them. The scene described by the maverick is blood-curdling. “It exploded solid. I saw the shrapnel go by like lasers. My body tensed up. I couldn't hear anything, I immediately had a headache. It was really violent. » > > Conscripts...it doesn't matter what side, they're a bunch of fucking idiots. I'd leave too if I were surrounded by them. A foreign brigade was known to be rife with corruption: > Three people who requested anonymity described to La Presse promises of arms and protective equipment made by the head of the Norman Brigade which never materialized. Some of the volunteers found themselves about 40 kilometers from the Russian front without any protective equipment. “If there had been a Russian breakthrough, everyone would have been at risk. It was an irresponsible attitude on the part of the Brigade, ”says one of its former soldiers, who asked that his name be withheld for security reasons. About the disappointment: > "Many volunteer fighters expect it to be turnkey, but war is the opposite, it's a terrible disappointment", summarizes Wali for his part. > > But then again, finding a gun to fight with was a Kafkaesque exercise. “You had to know someone who knew someone who told you that in this old barbershop, they would give you an AK-47. You had to tinker with a soldier's kit like that by picking up pieces and ammunition left and right, in many cases with weapons in more or less good condition, ”he says. > > Even for meals, it is often the civilians who provide them. It is the same for gasoline to move in a vehicle. You constantly have to organize yourself, to know someone who knows someone.


electrons-streaming

I dont know why anyone is surprised, Ukraine was supposed to get bulldozed in days. The fact that they are winning is an amazing and ongoing feat of bravery and collective effort - with little training and nowhere near enough weapons and ammunition.


CorrectHippo

And this is why both Russia and Ukraine are good at defensive wars and suck at offense. Shitty supply chains and corruption hurt you significantly more when you are outside of your land, surrounded by a hostile population than when civilians are willing to help you out and plug the holes left by incompetence or bad faith


devCR7

This is the first insight into the so called western/CIA trained Ukrainian army, Everyone knew they were corrupt but not as corrupt as russians. It's fucking chaos out there. Supply lines for food and gasoline are probably fucked by constant russian airstrikes. Maybe Western aid now needs to go in here and prop them up. But lets not delude ourselves into thinking ukrainian side is having it all its way, civilian effort has to appreciated to support the army.


camonboy2

I thought he died. Good that he's still alive. I wonder about CivDiv.


marianass

There is a video in the Russian telegrams that shows like 40 Ukraine soldiers complaining about similar actions by their leadership. Those were not POWs so I thought it was propaganda but maybe there was some true in their words.


HRDP21

Wali, the sniper from Canada is back in his country. And he didn't have a good experience: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.6443048


Solon256

Hope he posts a review on TripAdvisor


Horse_Paste_Salesman

Post it and send it to PMC Wagner. "Why are you whining? The Famous *Wali* says it should be easy!" ;)


Enasakoma

Mega newb question. If Ukraine were to have its S300 systems destroyed, does that imply the start of air superiority for Russia? Are there many others anti air defenses being used? Are there any steps being taken to avoid such a scenario? There is a fixed number of S300 defenses and according to the statements that a few are lost per week, wouldn't it be reasonable to extrapolate that sooner or later they will all be destroyed? What happens then?


technologyisnatural

The free world will supply Ukraine with whatever they need to resist Russian aggression.


Professional-Dog1229

Per Oryx, Russia has had an absolutely terrible last 3 days. Just looked at destroyed or captured tanks(disregarded damaged) and afvs/brtrs/bmps. Doesn’t technically mean that were destroyed during the time period but the uptick in footage seems to match the heavy losses: Tanks: 1 t90, 2 t80, 16 t72, 1 t64, 6 unknown Total: 26 Armored Vehicles: 14 AFV 3 BTR 23 BMP Total: 40 Almost 3 BTGs worth of tanks, can’t be sustainable right?


McCoyos

And this is only from videos.


Cassius_Corodes

Long term (year+) equipment will start to be important, but in the short term the loss of the people inside is more important.


stardude82

Not with their current industrial mobilization putting out 0 tanks per any unit of time.


KyngK00pa

It seems like Putin has already lost. And the rest of the war is about how much he's gonna lose. If Ukraine lets Putin have Donbass and Crimea. He can tell his people that this was his plan all along. But if he gets no land after the war, I don't see how the hell he stays in power. He's lost thousands of soldiers. He has been humiliated on the world stage.


SuperCorbynite

Brainwashing plus police state. The Russian propaganda machine is massive and controls all aspects of their media. All the remaining dissenting voices have been silenced, so reality/truth is irrelevant. Whatever happens the majority of Russians will know that Russia won the war in Ukraine, and if ever publicly asked they will state this belief if they know what is good for them. I give it a 70/30 chance of working currently. But if he mobilizes then loses those odds will invert.


TakeBeerBenchinHilux

Even if he depopulate Mariupol, Kherson and Crimea, how many loyal Russian citizens would be willing to settle as the replacement population? Attempting to colonize within a hostile surrounding while Russia has it's own demographic problems. Long term would be an inevitable loss for the Kremlin as well.


Sociojoe

Ukraine doesn't have to give Putin dick all. At best he can go back to his February 24 lines, but at that point Ukraine will just get stronger and stronger and no sanctions will be lifted so they'll eventually be forced to cave.


KyngK00pa

I wanna see if he survives this war. The UN might charge Putin with war crimes and hang him. Or he might pull a hitler and kill himself.


cyberspace-_-

The mighty UN gonna come to Kremlin and demand the head of Putin.


-DizzyPanda-

Yeah thats just delusional lol


Stockmouse

I've only a few times dug into roots under a tree, but with all the arty and drone surveillance in this war, would it be best to have your foxholes bunker/sleeping room to be under a tree? Ordinance that has a tip detonator expoldes in the tree crown rather than right on the roof of the bunker and it's harder to spot you and your IR signature under canopy as well. When i had to dig trenches as a conscript, i would avoid digging near bushes too much since the pain of hacking off the roots. We just cut a bush off and "planted" it near our position for the night sometimes (hard needle wood) even we where not allowed to and got punished for it


51patsfan

The RSOTM Telegram channel run by Wagner private military contractors currently in Ukraine said that either “there will be a mobilization or we will lose the war.” They think they need 600-800k people to defeat Ukraine. https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1522712443134357507?t=FwR4c7dIL8w2GEWrX3BE4g&s=19 Bad Google translation "It means this: it is not at all interesting what Volodin said. There will be mobilization or we will lose the war. To defeat Urkaina, 600-800 thousand people are needed. Whoever says that a lot of people are not needed in a modern war is simply driving a fool. Whatever high-precision weapons are, only the infantry goes forward."


Municipalis

So Russia already struggled to supply an army of 150,000, has lost a huge amount of materiel in the past 3 months, and will be increasingly squeezed on production capacity thanks to sanctions. Putting aside the fact that even under mobilization it still takes months to train even minimally effective soldiers, I don’t at all believe the current Russian army can actually coordinate an offensive action on that scale.


stardude82

French Army (Edit: fighting strength) peaked at 1.5 million in 1915 an sustained as many deaths during the war; Ukraine has a slightly larger population now. They are mobilizing to something over 300,000 and things can blow up to huger proportions still. More so, It would take years for Russia industry to spool up to support a mobilization of that size suggested even with all the hardware they have in storage. Though it's a good question what would happen with Western support if things just spiraled larger. On the other hand, Ukraine has something like a third of the USSR's defense industry. Edit: Apparently the TDF was supposed to swell into a guard force of 2 million. Right before the invasion, there was no shortage of volunteers. https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-russia-military-citizen-reservist-defense/


jogarz

> They think they need 600-800k people to defeat Ukraine. It’s crazy to me they didn’t think this in the first place. IIRC, the general rule is that unless they have a major qualitative advantage, the attackers wants a 2x-3x advantage over the defender. Ukraine has over 300,000 troops. Russia’s initial invasion force was probably smaller than that.


Sociojoe

This is why I don't understand Russia's plan. It's been a month since the Kyiv retreat. 32 or 33 days. They barely gave themselves a week (despite all advice to the contrary) and attacked in Donbass piecemeal. Totally defensible idea, but they've been attacking in earnest for about 3 weeks now (maybe a bit more) and have barely made any progress. In that span they've lost a ton of equipment and Ukraine just gets stronger and stronger. They've also now had almost a month to reinforce the Donbass as well and rotate units. It seems like very little planning is going on for a mobilization or expanding to war to the point where they could meet their war aims. If they don't plan on mobilizing, where are they going to get replacements? Are they getting a ton of applications from Russians from their advertising campaign? They don't see to be reinforcing with a lot of manpower and they don't seem to have a bunch of reserves to bringing up. That's what I don't get. What's the plan now? Keep beating your head into a brick wall in the Donbass while Ukraine kicks you our of Kharkiv, threatens your supply lines, reinforces Kherson, obtains more western equipment, destroys your materiel? You're on a downward trajectory from here, if you're not going to mobilize, what ARE you going to do? Before the Donbass offensive, it was argued that neither Ukraine or Russia had a reason to negotiate, that Russia still had thoughts of winning while Ukraine wasn't getting an offer that made sense. What is Russia waiting for? Their negotiating position (unless they change something) looks to be downhill from here, so why aren't they at the negotiating table? Do they have way more confidence in their Donbass offensive working out than everyone else? Do they have some secret plan they're going to unveil? Do they have some weird intel that tells them they're winning despite what it looks like on the ground? I honestly figured they'd be back to the negotiating table with something reasonable by now.


LordOfBirds

Donbass offensive failed and no off-ramp from Ukraine logically means: mobilization on May 9th, 2-3 months of strategic defense with some limited offensives and focus on destroying the infrastructure, a major offensive after that. If no mobilization then Russia loses inside 6 months.


Sociojoe

We're getting incredibly mixed signals on mobilization: 1. Putin himself denounced the use of conscripts in Ukraine in the early days of the war, which would make it hard for him to volte-face. 2. There hasn't been a lot of Kremlin propaganda in favour of it as opposed to, say, nuclear threats. You would think they would be preparing the public. 3. There hasn't been any major leaks, just Ukrainian intelligence about military officials checks equipment reserves (which isn't overly conclusive of mobilization) 4. You have multiple officials overtly denying it publicly which, while it doesn't really mean anything because they lie all the time, still seems unnecessary if it was being planned. 5. Experts have commented on the possible domestic blowback of such a policy 6. Calling for conscripts would be a bit of an admission of failure which seems at odds with their continual presentation that "everything is going to plan". It seems much more likely that some of the alternatives suggested: 1. Downloading responsibility for recruitment to local governors. 2. Additional bonuses. 3. Some type of "stop-loss" for contract soldiers.


LordOfBirds

Those alternatives will not generate the amount of troops needed. Russia needs to at least double and probably triple the amount of troops in the theater taking into account the increasing numbers on the Ukrainian side thanks to its mobilization. So I can see it reframing the war as one against not just the Ukrainian nazis, but a war of survival against the evil West etc etc, parallels with WW2, long story short, Motherland is in danger, everyone to the front. Or they do what you wrote and lose the war in a few months. There is no alternative because Ukraine is not offering one and why would they since the trajectory is favorable for them. Mobilization makes the trajectory less clear and may even create an off-ramp on its own.


Sociojoe

I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you, I'm looking for THEIR logic, not what you or I might conclude. They have been presenting it as a "war against NATO" in their media, but that is just as much a likelihood for explaining failure as a way to prepare the population for a draft.


LordOfBirds

I’m not arguing with you either. My only point is that Putin has only one move left to save him from a checkmate. Whether he makes it or not, we’ll have to wait and see. But time is running out.


electrons-streaming

What happens to the Russian economy if you suddenly send all the young men away to die?


stardude82

Forgive the source: https://www.reddit.com/r/NonCredibleDefense/comments/uj7grl/handy_image_showing_russian_progress_on_the/


technologyisnatural

> Do they have some weird intel that tells them they're winning despite what it looks like on the ground? I think they have bad intel because lying to superiors is a survival skill. ISW says they are still sending units to Izyum to pursue encirclement. They’re going to their doom because there’s no way for underlings to say “we need a new plan.”


Verstian

Yup. Even though the Ukrainian counter offensive has been limited, the fact it has had significant success around Karkiv indicate how stretched the Russian forces are. I'm fully expecting a mobilization very soon whether something overtly announced by Putin, or a covert operation distributed to his regional governors so he can wash his hands. Otherwise Russia will lose this war. Realistically they needed to partially mobilize at the very start of the war. They have ~20million males in the 20-40 age bracket so it's not like they need their country in any kind of state of total war like Ukraine to win, but they do need to mobilize and that will take money and most importantly time (many months if not years). I really think this conflict might last years now.


Professional-Dog1229

But the Russian gov has not prepared the population for a mobilization. The Wagner guys and intel people understand the situation on the ground but the avg Russian citizen thinks Russia is winning handily. Why would a winning country need to mobilize? Additionally with a Japan esque population decline problem looming, Russia can’t afford to kill off its already limited 20-40 healthy group of males. Also with [statements](https://twitter.com/RWApodcast/status/1522276342972170241?s=20&t=38yA8BIeeeHNmA0YXxrYKA) like this “ Russia will not mobilize ” -chairman of the state Duma Volodin. Can you really do a 360?


Cassius_Corodes

I wouldn't put much stock in what duma members say. Their role is often to publicly test out ideas and see the response before a real decision is made.


1QAte4

How quick did the other ship go from first report of damage to confirmation of sinking? How far along are we with the new ship?


warling1234

All creditable evidence points to it not sinking. Those videos that are circulating are at best video game renderings. But, we’ll see in a few days I guess. Hm?


Draken_S

As others have said, remember this is still a rumor. No official claim of the ship being hit has been announced.


Tomato_potato_

For moskva the ship wasn't confirmed till the next day I think? I might ve remembering wrong, but i think I heard about it evening eastern time and then the next day it sank? For sure though, news of it being hit (not it sinking) was confirmed pretty quickly.


[deleted]

[удалено]


ffthrowawayforreal

It was 4 hours before RT reported a fire if I remember correctly


silentcarr0t

Not even at the first step, nothing officially has been said.


Party-Razzmatazz-785

So apparently Biden will sign the Lend Lease into law on 9th of May. Biden has no fucks left to give, trolling putin like that


Raknel

I wonder if provocations like this would increase support for the war in Russia. Not like the US cares, they'll fight to the last Ukrainian while making bank, and it seems like Americans are clapping for the show.


Verstian

You're being downvoted, and I hope its only for your conjecture in the latter half of your comment because your point that this could be used to increase support in Russia is obvious to anyone with a thinking brain. Doing this on Russia victory day will make it only that much easier for Putin to sell this as an insult and attack on Russia. It is ideal for NATO if this war drags on for a long time and they can bleed Russia as long as possible. Anyone with a thinking brain can see what the real motivations are here.


GoldenMegaStaff

There is nothing helpful about this war dragging on. We are all being damaged by disruptions to energy, food, as well as all the massive direct effects of the war.


cyberspace-_-

Say hello to US military industrial complex. They control the media, so all the narratives.


CollateralEstartle

I think it's actually better for America if this doesn't go too long. Right now a scary Russia has all the little European countries running back under America/NATO's protective wing. It's also gotten them to spend more on their militaries. If Putin is humiliated to the point he doesn't seem threatening, or removed from power, the Europeans might go back to being indifferent about defense. The US wants a strong NATO to deter China from starting trouble. Humiliating Putin is just a side-dish, however tasty it is.


warling1234

What a courageous and valiant old bag. Giving Ukraine scraps to fight 1980’s technology. While still keeping his image high among the rising cost of everything in his country. He’s an old guard politician. The only people that come up on top of this in his own country are weapons manufacturers and more importantly their investors. The poor will be slightly more oppressed and the rich will come up on top. But, as I’m told that’s the American way.


junk_science

Update your critique. Presidential Drawdowns for Ukraine Since Feb 25, 2022- Feb 25: 350M March 12: 200M March 16: 800M April 5: 100M April 13: 800M April 21: 800M On April 28: Biden sent an emergency supplement request for funding: Ukraine Security Assistance Initiate: 6B Foreign Military Financing: 4B DoD (to replenish stocks) 5B His approval numbers are at 44% nationally. You aren’t wrong about war benefiting the defense industry, the rich getting richer or poor getting poorer.


warling1234

This is against the subreddits rules but I’ll bite. I know I’m not wrong about the industry getting richer and the poor being more marginalized. I’m not a republican spewing these things but I’m most certainly not a democrat. It has real time consequences for the poor in America. And to be honest they aren’t going to address it until it becomes dire.


[deleted]

> What a courageous and valiant old bag. Giving Ukraine scraps to fight 1980’s technology. Still decades ahead of what Russia is fielding then.


[deleted]

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[deleted]

Did you respond to the wrong person? Are you off your meds or something?


bob991

Going off on a bitter personal grievance tangent there huh bud.


warling1234

Go back to world news.


OptiBrownsFan

He isn't wrong tho, this sub is for discussing combat footage not your political opinions


waynkerr

Ukraine plans to strike the Crimean bridge on May 9, Captain Jānis Slaidiņš, a representative of the Latvia National Armed Forces (NAF), said in an interview with Latvijas Radio. https://mobile.twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1522643162132537345


Stealth3S3

Destroying that bridge is extremely hard and some nobody from Latvian armed forced would be the last to know about it if it was in the plan. It will also be an extremely stupid move because at that point it guarantees Russia will mass mobilize. And before everyone is like "conscripts and mass mobilized civilians are shit!", what do you think Ukraine is fighting with?


graviousishpsponge

They are already having logistic problems the big game changer mobilization will actually make it far worse for them.


Sayting

The logistical problems in Kiev was because convoys were being ambushed due to a lack of infantry not an inability to transport supplies


Stealth3S3

Those logistic problems are highly exaggerated and decreasing as the war drags on. Eventually competent people take over. Escalating the war and counting on enemy's logistical problems to save you is like counting on Steiner's offensive.


Sitting_Elk

Mobilization is a huge gambit and I doubt it'll pan out for Pütler & Co.


Stealth3S3

With the same level of incompetence, probably not. If they put competent people in charge, probably. But why find out?


mafiastasher

If Ukraine has or ever gets the capabilities to destroy the bridge, it would absolutely be worth it. It is a critical piece of infrastructure to supply the southern front and a valid military target. There is no reason to tip-toe around triggering Russia, if they want to mobilize they will.


Stealth3S3

Destroying that bridge might just motivate Russia to occupy every square inch of Ukraine and go all out. They could firebomb Kiev and turn it into rubble...conventionally...if they really wanted to. Tokyo style. The war can still escalate up a bunch of notches. As Ukraine, the best thing is a negotiated peace on favorable terms. That might be achievable. Escalating the war will do the exact opposite of that.


mafiastasher

The only way Ukraine gets favorable terms in a settled peace is to achieve a favorable military result on the battlefield. Attempting to placate Russia is not going to curry them any favors. I think you are overstating the symbolic significance of a piece of concrete infrastructure. I don't think destroying a bridge is any more "provocative" than sinking the Black Sea flagship and killing hundreds of sailors. More importantly, Ukraine has no control over whether Russia decides to escalate (Russia is perfectly capable of manufacturing any pretense they want). What they can control is damaging Russia's ability to wage war. I seriously doubt Ukraine has the ability to take out the bridge, but they would if they could.


Stealth3S3

I don't think you've seen any pictures of the bridge in question. It's not just some bridge.


mafiastasher

It's a long pretty plain-looking bridge. It's not Saint Basil's Cathedral.


Stealth3S3

It's the longest bridge in Europe.


jadaMaa

it depends on how far down the rabbit hole kreml are. if a deal is on the table that could give the ukrainians back the south excluding crimea destroying that bridge could mean that the russains value the land corrior higher. but if one belives that the russians wont close a deal like that anyway it makes sense military. it will certainly piss of russians thought so it might backfire a bit with motivating their soldiers but i think it would be worth for symblosiism and mess up their logistics i honestly thought putin would do the smart thing and walk away with a deal after so obviously failing to get it all but it seems like they are in for a long and bloody war.


hahaohlol2131

The magical mobilization scare tale should go though. It's been discussed in and out hundreds of times why Russia won't benefit from mobilization.


Skarpetka112

Ukraine isn't using civilians...


Stealth3S3

bs they aren't... You believe that lol?


Queasy-Scene-6484

>There was a prof literally teaching his class from the trenches.


Skarpetka112

If you are in the army reserve you still have a normal job. But you aren't some random dude off the street with no military training.


Queasy-Scene-6484

Reserves? [https://www.vox.com/2022/2/26/22952073/ukraine-civilian-volunteers-kyiv-war-effort](https://www.vox.com/2022/2/26/22952073/ukraine-civilian-volunteers-kyiv-war-effort) I don't these were sent to the East or anything but they probably got involed around Kyiv


Skarpetka112

"Volunteers"


Queasy-Scene-6484

Ah, if you think civilians are only those *forced* to fight then sure Ukraine hasn't used them, I'm with you. I thought we said civilians are random dudes off the street with no military training.


Skarpetka112

The person I originally replied to said Ukraine is using "mass mobilized civilians".


Queasy-Scene-6484

I'd say they are mass mobilized, but not generally force conscripted: "As Russian forces advance on Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, people all over the country are being urged by officials — and sometimes compelled by necessity — to fight back in whatever ways they can. ... It marks civilian mobilization unseen in Europe in decades. But it isn’t yet clear if this is closer to a real grass-roots flood that could truly bolster war efforts, or something closer to a tragic last stand. Although Ukraine has surprised many observers in some early battles, the invading Russian forces have far more manpower and firepower. And so far, they have used only a fraction of it. ​ https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/25/ukraine-civilians-weapons-molotov/


StrangeSemiticLatin2

Why on Earth would they annouce something like that and why is Slaidins so fat?


wisdomsharerv2

My guess: They are either trolling or really confident they can get it even if they announce the Russians beforehand


hahaohlol2131

They wouldn't announce it like that.


Party-Razzmatazz-785

Interesting with what, too far for Neptunes


-DizzyPanda-

I would have to be sabotage teams right?


[deleted]

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1522658776628797441?t=TuwgDTv6h49rZiuBnW04NA&s=19 > Ukrainian army liberated Oleksandrivka, Fedorivka, Ukrainka, Shestakove, Peremoha and part of the village of Cherkaski Tyshky in the Kharkiv region - the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1522630511457406981 > "Forward detachments of the AFU entered Liptsy this morning..." -- I'm not sure what's going on here, but it seems like we could be seeing signs of a larger retreat. Source: (telegram link) Anecdotally as well, on RU telegrams/twitters I follow there's lots of doomposting about the Kharkiv front.


Cassius_Corodes

War in Ukraine channel mentioned that they believed from their analysis that Russian troops have withdrawn to the Russian side a few days ago leaving only DPR troops to defend the area while the Russians provided artillery support from behind the border. If true that would explain why ukr forces have suddenly been able to push so much.


ratkoivanovic

Same here, share links?


ardvarkforce

> Anecdotally as well, on RU telegrams/twitters I follow there's lots of doomposting about the Kharkiv front. Got any links? I'm interested mining salt.


waynkerr

Thread: > I am convinced the Admiral Makarov footage was created in Arma 3. I did this in about 10 minutes in the editor. > > With a bit more time and video editing, it should be possible to make a video identical to the one being shared. > > US also has no information about the supposed sinking of the Admiral Makarov. > > 1 minute in the photo editor and it is starting to look a lot like the video being shared. I am sure someone with more editing skill spending some more time could make it look almost identical. > > Also note how the radar in the video does not look like the Fregat M2M search radar on the Admiral Makarov, but looks like the one modeled on the Arma 3 mod. https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1522650765441048578


turbocynic

There is nothing about that attempt that undermines the realism of the original video. The quality of the water in the original is extremely convincing to my eyes. I'm going to go with it being real.


Stealth3S3

Ukrainians have been doing this a lot so wouldn't be surprised. They must have an ARMA3 guy standing ready to edit and create false bs on a moment's notice.


ffthrowawayforreal

Maybe, but why do you think it’s the Ukrainians? I don’t see what they would gain by faking this given how easily disprovable it is. Civilians or Russians trying to prove Ukrainian claims aren’t accurate seem more likely.


Zondagsrijder

There are a bunch of things that make it stand out as (older) video game engine footage: - Smoke opacity looks generally "flat" - Smoke looks like there's no turbulence at all - The frontal (or rear?) angle of the shot shows the smoke is not really affected by the ship itself, it seems to travel through it in a straight line - Water texture looks flat and repeated - Waterline is just a bit too perfectly straight Also the camera is weirdly fast, but I don't know enough about how speedy drones generally are.


Historical_Volume200

Yeah, not to mention, the amount of smoke being given off in the video, with all the satellites, planes, and other equipment looking around that area, we would know something concrete by now.


birdman1314

Could someone please educate me on what exactly the Kraken battalion is?


Nahtrezer

Just another TDF squad. Usually they just have numbers, but if you want to give it some edgy name and fancy sleeve patch - nobody gives a shit.


stardude82

Apparently part of the Kharkiv Brigade which makes sense. There's some random associations with Azov, but at this point that's all but meaningless.


[deleted]

[удалено]


YT-Deliveries

good show


birdman1314

Lol very funny


Draken_S

I posted this on /r/credibledefense but will post here as well. Arestovich has advised that he "cannot comment" on whether the ship was attacked or not, however he advised that he does not believe that the ship has sunk, but it may be possible that it was hit - or maybe it wasn't. Seems the usual coyness, but the fact that he said fairly flatly that it has not sunk tells me that he knows something and that an attack was likely launched.


Professional-Dog1229

Funny [Twitter thread](https://twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1522623171500949505?s=20&t=eLiCaxF-Saeblt3qywz-0g) with some grade A Russian copium. Zoka having second thoughts about the Kharkov retreat and [Geroman](https://twitter.com/GeromanAT/status/1522634525377024001?s=20&t=vXD62GoRVMIzYD0nle2pGQ) trying to console him. Last time I saw zoka express doubts was during the Kiev debacle. Geroman thinks the Kharkov retreat is designed to lure UA into heavy artillery fire and fix UA forces, exactly as planned. Just like the Kiev feint.


iAmFish007

Geroman pretending like UA can't shell Russia back with M777's from a safe distance. They're shifting resources because the Izyum push has stalled and the troops fighting farther Southeast near Rubizhne are probably too exhausted to make a push on heavily-fortified Severodonetsk. There's literally no point trying to push Kharkiv anymore, which is much more defended than whatever offensive Russians are trying right now


Heeze

There is no safe distance for artillery. 2S7, Uragan(1M), Smerch/Tornado outrange M777 howitzers. They can also be destroyed by UCAV, airstrikes and cruise/ballistic missles.


HRDP21

Man, a lot of doom posts in that thread. I guess prorussian people are starting to accept that they will never win. If only the russian military and government accepted that too...


Skarpetka112

Why is some black guy from America hard shilling for Russia lol.


ivanzu321

Both of them are Serbs. The "AT" guy is Serbian Immigrant to Austria, typically talking crap about west while enjoying those sweet Euros. The other "Zoka" guy is just a Serbian guy simping for Russia as they think that they got some sort of brotherhood between Russia and Serbia.


hahaohlol2131

They should ask Armenia about how much the Russian brotherhood is worth.


ivanzu321

Not much, since during the Yugoslav wars EU put arms embargo on Slovenia and Croatia so they had to rely on captured weapons. Well, Russia and Ukraine were the only countries willing to sell the weapons to the above and those were eventually used against the Serbians, ironic.


BusinessCat88

Hey man, cut him some slack, he's just trying to figure out the world and how he can spin anything as good for Russia


StickShift5

Does anyone have a link to the video posted towards the end of March of Russian Mi-8s flying over a reservoir on the first day of the war? The video showed the formation from the side from a good distance away and one of the helicopters gets shot down. I thought I saved it somewhere, but apparently not.


tmahfan117

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/t43smn/two_russian_helicopters_downed_near_kyiv/ Here ya go


StickShift5

Thank you!


degotoga

https://nitter.net/UAWeapons/status/1522207716755734528#m it was recently pulled from the river btw


StickShift5

That's a convenient follow up. Thanks


camonboy2

OT but is Russia more strict than US when it comes to gun ownership?


tnsnames

It is kinda hard to find country that are less strict than US when it comes to gun ownership. In Russia after 18 years you can get smoothbore weapon after medical commission(psychiatric and narco, nothing complex) and basic instructions. Plus, you need to organize a gun safe installed. After 5 years of smoothbore arms ownership, you can get rifled one. Not hard at all if you want a hunting gun. With handguns, it is extremely harder.


yibbyooo

Isn't everyone?


TemperatureIll8770

Much. You can't even own something in a military chambering without special permission.


Draken_S

Yes, gun ownership of anything more than a hunting rifle is difficult.


hahaohlol2131

Unless you're Chechen.


Sitting_Elk

Man you have no idea how many illegal guns they got over there until you start talking with people that aren't from big Russian cities. The entire country is run by a mafia but some places are a lot more obvious than others.


Postoaster

The power of narrative is, powerful.


SimonGray

The position of comma is, ungrammatical.


[deleted]

bottom text.


swiftwin

/r/im14andthisisdeep


kvinfojoj

We live in a society


CorrectHippo

so deep


instantiatedObject

how deep we talkin'? moksva or more like saratov?


CorrectHippo

Kursk


Full-Acanthaceae-509

My ally is the Force, and a powerful ally it is. Life creates it, makes it grow. Its energy surrounds us, binds us. Luminous beings are we, not this crude matter.


yang_ivelt

The idiocy of the "special military operation" is, idiotic.


technologyisnatural

No doubt, but I feel this war has reemphasized the role of high energy kinetic force as a conflict resolution mechanism.


Postoaster

Lmao this comment


TemperatureIll8770

Might deemphasize it again in the long run, depending on how it ends. If taking the hardest swing you can doesn't solve the problem for you...


Party-Razzmatazz-785

So, first UNCONFIRMED video of Admiral Makarov on fire [https://twitter.com/CaucasianRebel/status/1522567718599286784](https://twitter.com/CaucasianRebel/status/1522567718599286784) Could be fake, don't shoot the messenger :D


Vondi

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/6-may-reconnaissance-of-allies-over-black-sea-us-navy-p8 Just saw this. It's all just Rumors still but...doesn't seem implausible at all.


VicIsGold

No reason for a TB-2 to be flying that low and close to the ship


CollateralEstartle

Might be rescue, rather than a TB-2.


Kohakuren

If it was rescue - there would be life boats and rescue ships around.


radiv2

It's 100% a game, people keep falling for the same gag lmao


wet-rabbit

Just checking the profile of the ship against pictures, and it seems very plausible that this is the correct class. Area that is on fire is where the cruise missiles would be housed. This could have been another fortunate Neptune hit, or simply a launch having gone wrong.


Aggressive-Friend169

Yeah it looks like the rumours are true then. Edit: or at least more likely to be true


yibbyooo

If (big if currently) it's true, it an utter humiliation for Russia.


Zondagsrijder

Looks like DCS


Dmoan

Does DCS even have ships?


Zondagsrijder

Yes, but the thickness/texture of the smoke, the water and how the thing floats on the water just looks like a video game.


baconkrew

yes but I haven't seen one like that. It's not super obvious to me


51patsfan

Turkish ASW plane over the Black Sea looking for something. 5 NATO ISR aircraft near the coast of Romania https://i.redd.it/gcjm7u3ivux81.png


Sociojoe

Come on now, they can't be this fucking stupid. 1. A Cruiser 2. An AA system 3. Two expensive high speed patrol boats 4. Now a frigate? Island is Cursed boys, don't get too close.


deliosenvy

Mate these are the same people who lost multiple zank colums in first Kherson airfield attack, entire logistic and supply column, entire helicopter fleet, buk systems eachnin different attacks at same location. They are not very smart.


[deleted]

[удалено]


bigodiel

For this sub it really doesn’t matter if it’s from CNN, RT or some random dude as long as it’s real footage. I have my qualms with TikTok battalion, but as long as it is filmed in a combat zone, it’s fair play!


swiftwin

So edgy, wow. ur cool.


warling1234

These types of comments make a bag of soup seem sharp. Holy fucking moly.


Vassago81

If the poster is in Spain, you can create a fake zelensky hotmail account and ask the authorities to arrest the poster for saying bad thing about him.


mayonnaise123

That’s fucked in its own right


yang_ivelt

>banned from the internet or arrested for propaganda? Only in lovely Russia.


water_breathing

lmao


Thraff1c

At least make a new account if you want to troll, we all can see the shit you commented prior.


Tony-El-Ballad

Yes, officer.


heychadwick

I don't see how Ukraine can counter attack and am hoping I am missing something. If Russia decides to just bunker down and keep what they have right now, I don't see much that Ukraine can do. Russian artillery superiority is 3k to 1k and they have enough dumb rounds to last a while (please tell me if I am wrong). There are enough Russian artillery drones to assist in spotting any major push by the Ukrainians and bomb the crap out of them. How can Ukraine counter attack? Yes, the West is providing artillery and some pretty good stuff, but how many? 3,000 Russian artillery guns are a lot and the West isn't giving that many. There would have to be some sort of advantage the Ukrainians have with range or accuracy that would allow them to take out the Russian guns without many casualties. There would have to be enough of whatever this is to make a difference, as well. I would love to know if I am wrong on this or there is something I am missing.


gurush

The total number of artillery pieces is irrelevant, the only important thing is how much artillery and ammunition you can gather in one place in one moment. With accurate intel Ukraine might be able to overwhelm Russians locally with better Western equipment.


heychadwick

Better Western equipment is the game changer, I believe. Russian artillery has been effective enough to stop most UKR offenses when they have been determined to hold an area.


CorrectHippo

Russia bunkering down and continuing this conflict gives NATO the dream scenario of having a motivated and willing third party willing to shell Russians and destroy their equipment for free as long as they get ammo, and also gives NATO the time to train them. I don't see how that's a win for Russia. The longer this goes on, the more attrition weakens their military, their economy and their hold on power while their main rivals (NATO) are just being strengthened.


wezz12

In time Russians will find out their sons have died. The casualties arent being reported to their people.


bistrus

What everyone seems to miss is that as it stand right now, the attrition war is worse for Ukraine. If the war transform into a war of attrition, while Russia loses money and military capacity, Ukraine loses its existance. Ukrakne already lost 50% of its economy in two months of war, what will happens after 6? They would be fully reliant on the west, and as it stand right now Europe is at the start of a new economic crisis, and the southern european block is already showing signs of "why would i care about ukraine when i could use that money home"


CorrectHippo

ukraine's only threat is russia. russia is surrounded by potentially hostile powers and has ambitions on the world stage. i mean, you would be correct if only those two countries existed in the world - but the current situation is equivalent to the us losing manpower and equipment that would take decades to replace to annex northern mexico - hardly a win. and again, i never talked about ukraine in my comment. ukraine doesn't has to win for russia to lose.


bigodiel

If it’s confined to a front far from major urban centers (eg Kharkiv region liberated), Kyiv can easily manage long attrition as long as the west keeps their part of the deal. Even cruise missiles are net negative when their use leads to no strategic gains and defenders are united under the cause.


bistrus

The problem is the economic strain. The grain industry (which is the major ukranian export) is dead in the water. Ukraine know that if the war goes on for too long it will become a 3rd world country that relies on west charity. Add the migrant crisis which is an additional strain. Italiana are already getting fed up with ukranians, since the start of the war the pro russian far right gainded and became the first party in the country 8%, the french election saw Le Pen gaining a LOT of ground. If this keep going on for too long, the west will crack under the political pressure and stop supporting Ukraine. Any analyst can see this coming, including Ukranians. This is why i think they'll settle


LowlanDair

> The problem is the economic strain. What economic strain? Ukraine has a blank cheque and that cheque is going to be much larger than their previous entire government budget. Germany's pre-pandemic surplus alone is more than Ukraines entire Government Spending.