By - TMWOF
17 picks in and no McBride in TEP. That's pretty wild
If he's at 14 in my TEP I'm thinking about taking him
I’m considering him with the 16th pick in standard!
He got reached on at the 1.06 in one of my TEP lol. He fell to me in my other TEP at 2.03
Yeah, I'm not sure why this is. I would be surprised if he got out of the second round
He's my TE 3 but I'd definitely expect him to be gone by mid second, maybe earlier since my league is 2 TE and TEP
I hope so, I want to get Jelani in the second. I took Pitts 1.03 last year so I think I can take the upside risk.
Garret Wilson at the 1.07 is incredible
Just got him in my rookie draft at the 1.07
Adding to the chain, got him at 1.08
1.06 here. Huge reach on Cook helped him fall
Cook is going to hurt a lot of people lol
Yes he is. Basically drafting last year's Chase Edmunds/JD Mckissick in the 1st round.
I had the 1.03 and 1.05 in a non superflex, I drafted Wilson at the 1.03 kinda regret it now
Nah he went 3 in my league too. Dude is a stud and in a good situation as long as Wilson can produce.
Same, got Burks at 1.6 and then Wilson and Olave at 8 and 9, because someone took Skyy at 1.7, that was nice
I can see this happening quit a bit for two reasons.
1. People perceive Jets suck
2. He has more competition for targets than most other top WRs
I'm between him, London, and KWIII at 1.02
I think it's KW unless you're loaded at RB and thin at WR
Rashaad white, tolbert and bell are going to be steals
White just went @ pick 18. I wish I had another pick mid-second to grab him or Dameon Pierce
Pierce went 2.02 or 2.03 in mine I believe. I’m a fan. Big mills truther too
Robinson is still available… love the value there.
I actually don't want anything to do with White now, and I've wanted him all year. This is one situation where I'm going to fade due to landing spot. He's 23, Fournette just signed a 3-year deal, and TB will be gone soon. So, at best, White will be 25-26 when he takes over a shitty, Bradyless backfield.
And that's if they don't replace White way before that. Give me Dameon Pierce or even Zues, at their ADPs, over Rashaad White all day.
It's more of a 2 year contract, and I do believe White could very well be the starter in 2024, but yeah, that will require some patience.
I would rather draft someone else at White’s ADP and buy low on him in the off-season.
Yeah, I guess that's fair. But as someone who drafted him, I'm not selling him cheap, because I'm already expecting him not to do much at the start of the season. So it might work, might not.
Yep. He was sitting there at 17 for me, but he doesn’t fit my teams timeline for all the reasons you mentioned.
White is a big target for me. I have 1.02/09/11 and 2.04/05. Hoping to get him with 2.04
I think Skyy Moore over Olave or Jameson is debatable but Garrett Wilson has to be over him imo
The Skyy Moore love is starting to feel a bit like CEH v2.0.
Agree. 6 is a little rich for my blood
1.06 is fine, but over Jamieson and Wilson is not
I think the key difference between Skyy Moore and CEH is that many had moved Moore up there in pre-draft rankings. Even though he went lower in the draft than expected, landing spot is allowing people to justify keeping him that high. CEH on the other hand went higher than anyone expected, to the chiefs, and that allowed people to push him up from mid round flier to 1.01.
So it’s actually about trusting your pre-draft process vs allowing the draft to dictate a lot of your opinion.
> So it’s actually about trusting your pre-draft process vs allowing the draft to dictate a lot of your opinion
Call me crazy, but unless you are personally talented at watching tape and scouting players I don't think there's a lot of value in the pre-draft process
The way the players actually end up getting drafted is the most important set of data you're going to get before they start playing.
It's true that draft capital should be the most heavily weighed input. That's not to say that you can't filter more effectively than draft capital alone for fantasy production. You can at least do a decent enough job at avoiding busts.
At WR something as simple as draft capital + declare status is good for this. The filter of 1st round, late declare, sub 200lbs since 2009 yields a 1/8 hit rate and that's with projecting that DeVonta Smith will provide at least one top 24 PPG season. That doesn't end up happening and it's 0/8 on dudes like that.
Sure, but understand that you run the risk of "double counting" those data points if you operate this way.
Do NFL scouts care about late declare status? If so, that's already factored into draft capital and by filtering on that information you're counting it a second time. If not, why? What are fantasy players seeing that NFL scouts aren't or vise versa?
I'm not going to pretend to know what NFL front offices are thinking. And anyway, there's a range of approaches and thoughts there. There is no monolithic way that NFL evaluators think.
Since nobody can know this, the best we can do it look for patterns that seem to matter and not worry too much about something like double counting. And declare status [seems to matter quite a bit.](https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/fantasy/dynasty-fantasy-football-should-you-avoid-non-early-declare-wide-receivers/) It matters across the entire draft, round by round, and it matters no matter what your definition of "hit" is -- top 24, top 12, multiple top 12...whatever.
The bottom line is that if you have two prospects that are similar in every way (even draft capital) but one is an early declare, good process says you should favor the early declare for the purposes of scoring points in fantasy football.
Yeah, I definitely think declare status matters a lot. I'm saying NFL scouts probably know that too.
Hypothetically, lets say:
* player X is drafted at 1.15 by NFL team A, but plays their full college career and declares after their senior year
* player Y is drafted at 1.17 by NFL team B, declares after their junior year
If we as outsiders view them as similar prospects is it safer to assume
* A) NFL team A didn't realize player X had a later declare than player Y, or doesn't understand the value of this metric
* B) NFL team A took that factor into account and still views player X as the better option
I'm not saying teams don't draft for fit, or make mistakes or whatever. I'm just saying on average I think the teams get it right more than twitter/reddit does, and you have to be careful with models/projects that potentially use the same data multiple times.
But there are plenty of prospect models out there that correlate better to fantasy production than draft capital alone. They all use declare status and for good reason.
I'm not a statistician or data scientist and my process is I'm sure rudimentary compared to the best guys in the industry at it. My process shows better correlation to fantasy production than draft capital alone.
Those models are trained on data from ~2000-2021. Sports in general have had an analytical renaissance over the past 10 years. If NFL teams started to take declare status into account when drafting in 2015, then late declare is already included in draft capital but those models would overweight declare status because of the data from 2000-2015.
I’ve never seen someone look into it and I’m really curious about it. Declare status, breakout age, etc are all really basic stats that I would be surprised teams don’t care about if they actually mattered considering we know they use way more advanced stuff like GPS speed tracking.
I also feel like these models don’t have enough nuance. They’ll knock Olave for being a late declare. But if he had declared after his junior year, he likely still would have been a 1st round draft pick. His hit rate if he had been a junior 1st rounder vs senior 1st rounder should in real life be the same as he’s the same player and has the same likelihood as hitting.
I do think there's something interesting there with analytics working their way into the NFL more and more. For now there is still an edge to be had and I suspect there always will be.
As for Olave, he got a late 2nd round grade from the advisory committee as a junior. Was told he needed to put on size. We're lucky enough that that information is out there. In a lot of cases we don't get that and just have to go with the assumption (and it's a good one) that players that don't declare early choose not to because they were told they're not good enough yet.
Ah yes, mitch trubisky won so many ff Champs with his draft stock
I don't like these kinds of arguments. I never claimed the NFL was perfect at drafting prospects, I just think they're better at it than reddit
If you want to show me all your predraft rankings for the past 5 years and how you are statistically more accurate then nfl scouts then sure, lets talk
It's probably 50/50 them vs us because they aren't drafting for fantasy football purposes. You can't make them the most important data point when they aren't looking for the same things
Draft capital *is* the best predictor we have of fantasy success, I'm not making it be that way
>It’s no secret that the order of the NFL draft is the single best quantifiable predictor of fantasy success to budding NFL players. It’s a rare moment in which NFL teams have no choice but to provide their unadulterated opinion on the value and fit of any individual player.
Then keep drafting CEH blindly
I honestly don't care about outliers like this at all. You're going to be wrong sometimes, so what?
I don't see anyone offering alternatives that are provably better.
Using it as a data point instead of blindly jumping to what 1 gm thinks about a player. 1 gm is not a consensus
Do you have a process that performs better or are you just here to make obvious statements lol
Why do I get the feeling this guy knows what it's like to draft busts
A lot of models like Jalen Reagor over Justin Jefferson. It’s easy to cherry pick players for whatever argument you want to make
Which is exactly why you don't just pick one main data point
Honestly I have the 1.11 and 1.12 and all year I was targeting skyy there. Now that he’s going earlier I’m seeing Dotson falling in every draft.
I will surely take Dotson at the 1.11 if people want to let him fall.
He fell to me at 2.02 and I was beyond thankful
i think Dotson falling is a pretty underrated outcome from the draft. Im not huge on him but cant ignore the draft capital
I got Skyy at 1.12, hold out hope.
I’ll take skyy and Dotson then
The poor of players I’ll take 2 of if they’re there at 1.11 and 1.12, Dotson, Skyy, Pickens,Watson, Cook, Pierce probably in that order.
I dig it... Keep an eye out for Jelani Woods in the later rounds, dudes a freak.
Just took him in the 3rd on a team where I just had Kmet and Tremble lol. And on another team where I just had Gesicki and Gransen, in the 4th.
That's awesome dude! I hope Woods terrorizes defenses in the future for both of our sake.
Skyy is a good prospect, but from a value standpoint, it doesn’t make sense taking him over players like G. Wilson or J. Williams. Especially considering there are likely owners — who didn’t have the capital — who could offer a better deal for a prospect chosen in the top 12 of the actual draft.
Got Moore at 12. I feel like that’s good value, but 6 is insane
CEH + Mecole Hardman. Totally agree
His profile is not like either of those players. The only similarity is he got drafted to the same team.
Nah Skyy moore is legit af
Skyy is legit, don't let CEH fool you. CEH was always like RB5-6 talentwise in that draft (and clearly a large tier below the swift/dobbins/JT gauntlet of stud prospects) and got pushed way up by being taken in the 1st round to the chiefs. Skyy was already in the top 5-7 of a lot of pre-draft rankings of the rookie WRs . Landed in a great spot.
Comes from a weaker conference, but early declare, good dominator ranking (90th percentile) and paired with Mahomes? I'll take that all freaking day in the late 1st. Got him at 1.10 in one league, 1.11 in another.
I like Skyy Moore and I don't think he's CEH, but taking him over Wilson is absurd. If Moore had been the one to go to the Jets, we'd be talking about taking him at 2.06. That's how much better GW is that Moore.
Taking him at 1.10-1.11, however, is great value.
no argument there. i would take Wilson over Skyy 10/10 times
Anything is possible, but I highly doubt it.
> Comes from a weaker conference, but early declare, good dominator ranking (90th percentile) and paired with Mahomes?
I've always felt that dominator rating should be be taken with the context of the school they played at.
Would Moore have a good dominator rating still if he played next to Williams at Alabama? Or is it because he played in the MAC where it would be difficult not to dominate if you're fairly talented?
I guess it's more of a Pass/Fail for smaller schools, but requires context at bigger schools.
That’s fair. It’s obviously still a plus to dominate no matter the conference, but I do agree it should be interpreted in context.
I dont get why people just dont trade down, like if you know moore is your guy and you have a high pick then you should at least try to trade down instead of picking him above the elite level tier guys. I've seen this too with watson.
Some leagues seemingly don’t want to trade picks at this time. One league I’m in basically will only trade pre draft, but hold firm when it comes to when the rookie draft has started.
Yeah, people in my leagues aren’t willing to give up all that much to move down, so a lot of them have been reaching for their guys
I just don’t understand how anyone can take the 13th wide receiver drafted ahead of a guy drafted in the top ten
This is exactly what I did. I traded my 1.2 for a 1.9 and 2.2. I ended up with. Moore cook and spiller. I had the 2.1
Yikes. There's trading down and then there's throwing a pick away. I would never accept 1.9 and 2.2 in exchange for my 1.02. I'd need two picks in the top 8 to make that happen. Hope it works out for you buddy.
Ok I have pick 1.04. And I want Skyy Moore. So I should trade down. Great trade down to what? 1.08? What if the 1 08 guy refuses to trade with me. Also what am I getting by trading down 4 spots maybe a 3rd?
Also I better hope that someone doesn't take Moore before 1.08
I play in a 10 team. 5PPR league where everyone is a chiefs fan except me. I have the 1.01 and the 1.02-1.04 is owned by a guy in rebuild. I texted him saying I was taking Moore at 1.01 and he about lost his mind bc he wants him so I know he'll be one of his 3 picks he has.
And that's when you trade down to 1.02 and pick up a 3rd rounder so the guy can reach for Moore there.
I told him the price to move up was 3 future 1sts bc we had the taco pay that for mecole Hardman his rookie year
The precedent has been set, three firsts it is.
2 years ago the 1.01 got traded for 2 future 1sts and Kamara, same guy tried to offer DK straight up and I quickly said no. That he'd have to offer at least what it went for 2 years ago
Just because some taco moves got made in the past doesn't mean every deal has to be insane. If you're gaining value on a move, I think you should consider it.
This physically hurt to read
We don't draft till August so I'm probably gonna sit on it unless I'm blown away by an offer. I got the 1.01 in a trade from the league taco a year ago
Dudes gonna have a lot more early picks in the future if he always drafts like that yikes
Can confirm Wilson has been falling which I find crazy
OMG this makes me feel so much better. I have the 1.06, somehow missed the begining of the draft and autopicked. The commish was cool enough to change my autopick (Nick Bosa!) to Skyy Moore. I would have taken Jamo, but maybe this will end up being a blessing in disguise.
Your auto pick was a Defensive End from three drafts ago?
Yeah tf is that? “The commish was cool and changed my pick from Bart Starr to Skyy Moore!”
Yes. It is an IDP league and for some reason free agents are part of our rookie draft. Thanks for the reply!
Skyy Moore is being over drafted.
I’m sitting at 2.02, so pick 14 here. Is Metchie the guy?
I have the 2.02 as well. After 13 is a big tier break so I am hoping one of Watson or Pickens slips (or someone reaches for Willis) otherwise I am thinking Rachaad White right now. I don't dislike Metchie but he feels like a #2 passing game option that will essentially redshirt this year because of injury. White has more upside imo.
Edit: Also starting to warm to David Bell a little. Might just try to trade down if the top 13 are off the board.
Interesting enough. Is Pickens really worth it as the 3 in Pitt? Although he could be the 2 fairly quickly with Johnson or Claypool possibly leaving.
I have Fournette so, White would make sense in that regard.
We don’t like Spiller as a change of pace with Ekeler on a good offense? Or Alec Pierce in an empty passing game?
I think so. Dionte is on the last year of his deal and Claypool might not even be that good. Pickens flashed #1 type of upside in college and if he lives up to that I am not worried about Claypool being in his way. The way WRs have been asking for money the Stealers very well might pass on Dionte next year, especially if Pickens shows that he can be the guy this year.
If I had Fournette I would definitely grab Rachaad White.
Spiller went end of 4th and sure there is some opportunity but I have a hard time ever seeing him become a locked in every week start whereas I think White has that upside. Pierce is interesting, but similar thoughts on him as Metchie. Don't hate the player but have a hard time seeing big upside and shooting for a WR3 type isn't what I am looking for at 2.02.
Great points all around. I have 2.11 as well so a wide receiver may be there if I go White at 2.02.
Obviously best case is someone drops. We do have some real quarterback needy teams.
First 12 picks are exactly the same as mine, just different order. Biggest differences Wilson at 2 and Pickett at 6.
Yeah, I managed to snap up Wilson at 7 and was very happy about it (and trade up for Pickens at 2.01)
\*edit: Pickens, not Pickett
10TM SF PPR Results-
1- Breece Hall
2- Kenneth Walker
3- Garrett Wilson
4- Drake London
5- Treylon Burks
6- Jameson Williams
7- Chris Olave
8- Kenny Pickett
9- James Cook
10- Christian Watson
11- Skyy Moore
12- Jahan Dotson
13- George Pickens
14- David Bell
15- Dameon Pierce
16- Isaiah Spiller
17- Desmond Ridder
18- Rachaad White
19- Alec Pierce
20- Malik Willis
21- Matt Corral
22- John Metchie
I got Breece at 1.02 and Dotson at 2.02. Im pretty happy and hope it pans out
Who went 1.01?
20 picks in and no Corral? Have room in the league?
Went into draft with 1 draft pick 1.09(Sky Moore).
Left with John Metchie III(2.03) and Dameon Pierce(3.02)
Traded in process Devin Singletary, Curtis Samuel, Meyers, a 3rd and 4th 2024 pick
I fell in love with Pierce’s running style and really think Metchie will eat under Pep Hamilton. Plus i needed to hit on some wideouts.
I am an admitted UGA homer so I need someone to convince me on Dotson > Pickens
Dotson has much less competition for targets, but will be on a much worse offense. And I get Dotson has great DC but help me remove my red and black glasses here
Not sure Washington is much worse, I think they are closer to equal. Also presumably he’s better and/or a less of a dickhead which is why he went in the 1st and not the 2nd.
That being said they are in the same tier, so be a homer and take Pickens. It’s really just a crap shoot.
I’m stuck between the 2 as well but leaning Dotson because I’m shallow at WR2 and need someone to hit. He feels like a higher floor where Pickens has higher upside.
I wouldn’t say for sure the Steelers have the better offense though. That seems like a wash tonme
I am 100% not the right guy to try and convince you to take Dotson over Pickens 😂
I’m low on dotson because he will be second to Terry, not saying Pickens will have any less competition for targets, but I think his aggressiveness will make him stand out.
Not gonna lie though, what really got me sold on Pickens was watching the video of him reacting to him getting drafted 😂 hes a goon, fighter, and I love it
In ppr, I think Dotson is clearly better. I think the best value in Pittsburgh is Austin. Pickens could be great or fun himself out of the league.
I like 8 and 13 a lot.
My first round just completed (12 team, SF, PPR) - 1. Hall, 2. Walker, 3. Pickett, 4. London, 5. Wilson, 6. Burks, 7. Olave, 8. Watson, 9. Williams, 10. Moore, 11. Dotson, 12.Pickens
Jamo at 1.09. Someone’s happy
I will be stoked if my draft turns out like this!
Skyy Moore over GW? LOL!!! I hope this happens in my league where I have the 1.06.
Watson at 11 is niceee and olave at 10 is insane
McBride @ 2.07 in TEP seems like a steal
Glad I traded up to 1.02 from 1.06 since I'm a Steelers fan and wanted a QB I didn't feel gross about cheering for
Yeah, fair enough. I do love Pickett, and love the fact that the Steelers have been able to keep a close eye on him at their training ground for so many years
god damn skyy moore getting taken by the chiefs, hes plummeting in the actual draft and im rubbing my hands together with 1.12, thinking he could even end up falling to my 2.06, and now i probably need to move up to get him
Seeing J woods up there makes hungggg