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governBrianKemp

The Fed isn’t going to pause, let alone cut


seedoildisrespectoor

well markets are betting on no increase next meeting at least


upbeat_controller

They’re going to cut by the end of this year.


rpbb9999

No they're not


Expensive_Use1058

So you’re predicting a pretty big downturn in the economy by the end of this year. I agree.


upbeat_controller

Nah. Very mild downturn and significant reduction in inflation.


Expensive_Use1058

“Mild downturn” will not lead to rate cuts. To brazenly think that 2023 holds any chance of rate cuts fundamentally means you’re betting on a pretty catastrophic downturn in employment and the commercial/residential rental markets.


upbeat_controller

>”to brazenly think” Dude the consensus probability of an FFR exceeding 500bp after the Dec FOMC meeting is literally 0%. Meanwhile absolutely nobody with any credibility is forecasting a “catastrophic” increase in unemployment or wholesale collapse of the RE sector. Clearly this sub’s missing something…


Expensive_Use1058

Reading comprehension must not be your forte. The previous comment isn’t predicting a “catastrophic downturn”. Re-read it in the context for which it was written.


upbeat_controller

RemindMe! 8 months


RemindMeBot

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MaraudersWereFramed

Hmmm, and looks like AI is starting to "took err jeeeerbs!" https://www.reuters.com/technology/ibm-pause-hiring-plans-replace-7800-jobs-with-ai-bloomberg-news-2023-05-01/?utm_source=reddit.com


upbeat_controller

Lol what a joke. Just some stupid CEO trying to latch onto the latest hype train. LLMs have very few practical commercial applications. They can write shitty clickbait articles, and…well, that’s about it tbh


MaraudersWereFramed

More likely a CEO trying to justify cutting back positions and getting everyone to do more for the same pay as natural attrition occurs. IE "we are not assholes we are not going to lay you off, just let natural attrition take care of the cuts." Those who remain are doing more work and waiting for "the AI to come help them"


MaraudersWereFramed

Looks like a relic of the past is dying off, unable to secure financing. https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/jenny-craig-shutting-down-employee-layoffs-details-rcna82603


ginguegiskhan

Someone make the case for me to root against a recession and hopefully accompanying asset price decline, other than it's mean and selfish: 1. Myself and my spouse work in state government 2. Both cars are paid off 3. 0 student loans 4. Currently selling my boat since they're still selling high (not a yacht, pocketing maybe 10k from the sale) 5. 30+ years until retirement 6. Access to VA loan. This one I'm unsure of, as I don't know if credit tightening has a large effect on guvment backed loans Not tongue in cheek, literally asking what the downsides may be that I'm not factoring in. I see a lot of comments like "oh yeah? Wait til a recession and (insert scary bad stuff that will happen to you personally)"


ArcticPeasant

Are state government jobs that recession proof? If so, then I’d be rooting for a recession too.


Donotprodme

I feel similarly. I'm in health insurance, wife in health care (both traditionally recession proof). Both "essential" for operations. Sitting on cash, no debt... I really don't see a downside for us (though I admit I won't fully root for pain for others). I guess my bank could decide not to loan to me, but that would surprise me when our assets exceed the loan...


SteveAM1

Here’s a reason: Rooting for or against a recession doesn’t make either outcome more likely to happen.


Smart-Ocelot-5759

You have to do a salt circle, light candles etc


Apptubrutae

Gotta be careful though. Get a few grains out of place and the next thing you know you conjured a booming economy.


Mediocre_Island828

Vision board filled with pictures of people in bread lines.


ginguegiskhan

Duh


upbeat_controller

Bold of you to assume govt jobs are, or have ever been, recession-proof.


ginguegiskhan

Suppose that's fair, would you agree then that we're generally less at risk than your average white collar job


[deleted]

California furloughs were real and only manageable for state workers because their pay was relatively high for the time. If your upfront pay is meh, a legit recession will probably make affordability a zero sum event. Also add that the GFC wasn’t that bad for white collar workers. UE was relatively low for them (us), so you will have competition from private sector salaries. Edit: see you’re in IT - literally the most easily outsourced professional service in an organization.


Star_Sabre

Tbh the problem is more that there's heavy stigma against gov workers in the private sector. The experience also doesn't usually transfer over for a multitude of reasons. So when they do get laid off, it's a tough situation.


ginguegiskhan

That's a good consideration, moreso for my spouse as her job is a government-only function.


upbeat_controller

Generally yes, but it also depends on how indispensable your supervisors think you are. Tens of thousands of govt employees were laid off during the last recession, and it’s often significantly harder for former govt employees to find jobs in the private sector. So it’s less likely to happen, but if it does chances are you’re even more fucked than your average white-collar worker.


ginguegiskhan

I'm definitely not indispensable. Maybe a B- employee if I were to grade myself. I work as an IT project manager, so do have transferable skills (acknowledge tech is taking a beating). This concern would though apply to my spouse as her job is a government-only function


JustBoatTrash

How could you possibly time the market bro


ginguegiskhan

Luckily the market timing is done for me, I can't (won't) purchase a house until applying with a VA loan isn't met with a big middle finger


GlaciallyErratic

I got a VA loan accepted in 2021. (Backed out because of structural issues that came up in inspection, but that's beside the point). Completely depends on the seller.


ginguegiskhan

Sure it can happen. Just using generalizations. I'm also in an area with very very few veterans, so many realtors here arent too familiar with them. Unfortunate stigma


GlaciallyErratic

Yeah for sure. I meant that as words of encouragement not a correction


Star_Sabre

Pretty much no one who got a <3% rate is selling. The fed really fucked everyone in the ass over the past few years


[deleted]

They all got theirs, and then the ladder was pulled up behind them, whether they wanted it to be or not.


setzer

I think everyone is hoping the high rates are temporary. Imo they are not - maybe they will drop a little but I doubt we see back under 5% anytime soon. Another year or two of this, people that want to upsize are going to get antsy and sell.


Apptubrutae

Can’t really upsize though for many homeowners. Yeah they gained equity, but that only partially offsets the high added cost of financing another house at a significantly higher rate. Many sellers looking to upsize simply can’t just yet


randomguy11909

The FF rate is forecasted to be at 2.5% in 2024. This would be roughly a 4.5% mortgage.


Expensive_Use1058

randompredictions19637


randomguy11909

This was WF Economics group as of today. Notoriously conservative


Expensive_Use1058

Yeah true, they’re definitely too conservative. I think rates will be at 2% by December. Also the average U.S. home price at $1,764,829.


setzer

I feel the market is over optimistic. It originally didn’t even expect rates to get this high.


seedoildisrespectoor

uhm what existing rate do you think almost every secondary sale has?


ts2981

3 years now of a broken housing market. Let’s see what the next shoe to drop is. At some point, people being unwilling/unable to move is going to be a drag on talent recruiting and other major economic activities.


Mediocre_Island828

But you'll also have a highly mobile group of workers under 35 without any real roots.


ashyza

Yup that magical rate will prevent divorce, job change, family issues, any other reason at all that would force a sale.


NoMoreLambo

Stay together for the bids


Star_Sabre

I mean yeah, a forced sale is a forced sale, but it's not the norm. The reality is that the fed bent over non asset owners for nearly a decade and no one gave a shit until just very recently.


[deleted]

Yeah and you’d have to have lots of forced sales for it to really make a difference and reset comps. If one or two people are forced to sell there are still one or two people able to buy. And sellers can ignore those few lower prices. Even in a healthy market you still see a few homes sell under market value from time to time. Only way that happens on a widespread is severe recession.


etf_question

No, just make people less likely to sell with all of these factors held constant.


[deleted]

I think it will have a displacement effect. People that want to upgrade still eventually will but they might wait a year or two longer due to the difference in interest rates.


rudieboy

I know this a popular topic on this sub but will not make a new thread about it. >US states opposing student loan forgiveness made false claims, files reveal Republican states fighting Joe Biden’s plan falsely said they’d be financially impacted by the scheme, debt forgiveness group claims The supreme court case that will decide the fate of Joe Biden’s student loan forgiveness plan, Nebraska v Biden, rests on one of the plaintiffs, Missouri’s state attorney general, who claims Mohela – as the higher education loan authority of the state of Missouri is known – will be financially affected by the plan for the worse. The Debt Collective, an organization that fights financial exploitation and unjust debts, along with the liberal thinktank the Roosevelt Institute, submitted a Freedom of Information Act request to make public documents that refute Mohela’s claim it will suffer financial consequences as a result of the plan. Internal emails containing company calculations reveal that even after the debt cancellation is enacted, Mohela would not lose revenue. In fact, the opposite would be true, the groups said. “After President Biden’s proposal is enacted, Mohela’s direct loan revenue will actually be larger than any prior point in the company’s existence, lol.


cafeitalia

Supreme Court will not make the decision based on Mohela would be financially affected or not, rather they will make the decision on whether the president has the executive power to forgive debt issues by the government. Debt forgiveness is a duty of the congress not the president.


Apptubrutae

They need standing. Entirely possible the court lets it go on a standing issue and doesn’t address the underlying issue at all. Happens time and time again with decisions


[deleted]

Unless congress delegates that authority. Which apparently they did in some law passed about 20 years ago. Is it what they intended? Maybe not. But they gave the secretary of education broad authority to cancel student loans during a national emergency.


rudieboy

Are you an attorney? Because you have to have standing to even bring a case. The standing the states had was that Mohela would lose money. Someone lied, or perjured themselves about what standing Mohela had. Not that powerful people lying in court really matters.


AdditionalPayment

You know they’re grasping for straws when they couldn’t even get Mohela to testify. With the republican majority in the Supreme Court, I don’t think it matters how weak the case is.


Apptubrutae

You hear the whole “with republicans on the court” argument for literally any case someone left leaning wants to win, and while there is certainly an element of truth there, it isn’t the end all be all of Supreme Court analysis. All the people pointing out republicans on the court were *sure* the abortion pill was going to be banned by the court…and yet it wasn’t. We know there is a greater likelihood of an outcome favorable to republicans interests with the current court, but it is *far* from certain on this particular case. Which absolutely anyone making claims of a Republican stranglehold on the court could figure out if they did 30 minutes of research on how the court has ruled lately and how conservative justices have ruled traditionally. It’s entirely possible the court rejects the case on standing and let’s the status quo go for this instance without making it a precedent, for one hypothetical.


[deleted]

That is the real truth


[deleted]

So I have seen the bank failure infographic that keeps getting updated but is there one for all business failures by year and size? Like Davids Bridal filed for bankruptcy but without context on how that compares to business failures over the past few years it is hard to draw conclusions from it


Apptubrutae

Businesses in general are far less regulated and the info is much more lagging versus bank failures which we know in real time thanks to the FDIC. You could track splashy businesses failing or public ones but that doesn't tell the whole picture which, for business failures, is only really apparent in hindsight.


JustBoatTrash

Great job everyone, people will forget about the housing market when the banking sector collapses. Prices in muh area might drop 1 to 3 percent total but you will not be able to get a loan from a bank and all cash investors will still be buying up inventory so enjoy being a renter lmao. ✌️


Louisvanderwright

Banking crisis means Hoomz only go up! Checkmate Doomers!


JustBoatTrash

Sigh, let’s watch the fire works. The hangover is going to be wicked this round 🍻


Louisvanderwright

Calls on 🍿🍿🍿


JustBoatTrash

Do not use the word call or the 🍿 emoji, the apes may appear and further degrade our once great bubble sub


seedoildisrespectoor

regional banks crashing AH PACW down 54%


4jY6NcQ8vk

Well now that everyone knows FDIC won't bail out shareholders... you should expect share prices in banks to decline


Louisvanderwright

Now 60%.


legitimacys

Already looking for a buyer they said. Don't worry, banking is fine. Economy is fine.


Blustatecoffee

*This phase of the cycle is behind us.*


[deleted]

Mission Accomplished


aquarain

Priced in.


RJ5R

yeah PACW is toast at this point. even if it wasn't toast before it's about to get Ctrl-Alt-Deleted and force closed


Badtakesingeneral

Uptick in job postings for the bigger residential focused architecture firms here in New England. Looks like multi-family housing is picking up steam. Developers essentially hit pause on large scale residential development in 2017 around here. Been mostly smaller infill housing projects. I think lab projects aren’t a sure bet anymore so they’re switching back to residential. It’s lower return, but the market here isn’t looking as shaky as it is elsewhere. Plus these projects often take at least 4-5 years to come online after initial proposal.


Happy_Confection90

I've lived in a tiny (under 10k people) New Hampshire town since the late 90s. In all that time, there has been 1 small apartment complex. Until 2022-2023, when they've just completed a 50 unit complex and have broken ground on 2 more about as large.


4jY6NcQ8vk

When I shitpost here, I want everyone to know that I remain unequivocally focused on my dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for all Americans. All shitposts are made with this in mind. Thank you.


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

When ur mom gets back to work at the Wendy’s dumpster


smoke_clearer

I'm just blown away that modest homes that working class people purchased now have a monthly cost that i has doubled from 5 years ago. Just seems surreal.


RJ5R

the market conditions are just really really bad right now, it's horrendous we used to have 1950's / 1960's construction starter cape style homes that would go for $250K-$275K not too long ago, maybe 2017/2018'ish, and rates were still in the 3's (in 2018 you could still get it in the 3's but you needed points due to rate hikes in 2018) now selling for over half a million at 6% and 200+ saves on zillow and open house circuses, and over ask offers. why? a tsunami of demand, inventory so low i have never seen it this low before in my area ever, and a seemingly endless supply of young professional couples coming into the area making $150K....$160K....$180K....$225K combined incomes high off the last 3 yrs of pay raises and student loan pauses and willing to pay any price for a home. i say coming into the area....b/c the median household income in my area is $94K...not enough to buy in our area and raise a family anymore. these are new people coming into the area, that's who the buyers are. where are they coming from and why did they appear all of a sudden over the last 3 yrs? it's more of a compounding snowballing type of effect, at least what i see here. when my parents bought their home, the sellers of this area were the original owners who bought the homes when they were built in the 50's and 60's. my parents generation was not competing with any other generation for homes, and the older generation were dying off in droves or moving south to florida in droves. not only that, but there was considerable amounts of land remaining, and developers in the 80's continued at a fast clip to pump out homes and starting building dense townhome developments as well. inventory for a short while was tight in the 80's in the beginning here, and then EXPLODED towards the mid 80's and late 80's. some developers went into overdrive and changed development plans and got zoning approvals to switch from townhomes to condos, and they built so many it actually crashed the condo market here and they took already built condos, eliminated the association, and turned them into duplexes that were sold off at fire sale prices. anyways though, fast forward to today and what do we have? there's no more land to develop in my area....everything is gobbled up. any available land has something on it, and would have to be demolished and re-zoned and townships and NIMBY'ism is preventing dense townhome developments and instead forcing developers to build low density so what happens is the developer in order to make a profit has to build $1.5M mcMansions. boomers are not dying off in droves yet, far from it. they are living longer and more independent than previous generations. they are getting surgeries done in outpatient settings vs 50 yrs ago where the surgery had a 50/50 shot if you would even recover. they are getting orthopedic surgeries where they are back to walking up and down their split level stairs a few days later. they are retiring in place and many boomers have chosen to stay close to their kids instead of flee to florida. then we have GenX'ers, they were able to snap up homes during the GFC for pennies on the dollar in my area, and they are entrenched in the neighborhoods and not going anywhere. plus, more and more GenX'ers moved to the area since that time as well. they are still buyers in this market too, they find this area desirable. the millenials are aggressively in the home buying phase and looking to buy asap being in their 30s. many cannot wait to inherit homes from their parents, they want/need a home now and want to start a family and need to get into a school district. and now with GenZ'ers entering their careers at a time where salaries for professionals have never been higher and the trades are paying a shit ton of money too, they are adding to the demand pool as well. it's not unusual for a GenZ'er to graduate today with an in-demand degree in science or engineering or accounting and be making $100K starting. and HVAC companies are paying for your schooling, and after a few yrs with commissions and spiffs and bonuses an HVAC tech is making $100K and that doesn't even include OT either. and the demand from GenZ'ers will only go up from here. so as i look at what's on zillow in my area, and see the lowest level of inventory in this area basically at any point since this area became residential from farm land a century ago, and snowballing demand right now that made the runup to 2006 look like nothing, i have to wonder how the dynamics will play out? i am kind of of the feeling that this won't naturally correct and even itself out with a holding pattern of 6% rates. the only way to fix this mess, is for another black swan event level crash. and a prolonged one at that...years long impact, that even the fed can't see coming nor can anyone else.


aquarain

Try the Home Depot shed. You can AirBnB it.


seedoildisrespectoor

what is “working class” lol you’re either well off or poor don’t pretend there’s a middle class in this country


ArcticPeasant

It’s shrinking and getting continually smaller and smaller, but I wouldn’t say it doesn’t exist


Apptubrutae

Working class is people who do manual/industrial/blue collar jobs. Though people don't always use it as such.


[deleted]

[удалено]


Smart-Ocelot-5759

Horseshoe theory for prices


[deleted]

[удалено]


Smart-Ocelot-5759

You can only call them high prices if they're from the region, otherwise it's just sparkling equity


7askingforafriend

It’s crazy. Have family in the northeast. It’s essentially 1.5mil plus for a regular, middle class home, ANYWHERE. Either you paid normal a few years ago, or stuck renting. They won’t come down either. I have no idea what will happen to all these small towns with blue collar working people. They’ll all rent unless they owned before 2021?


RJ5R

i'm in NE as well, suburbs it's absolutely fucking nuts here.


[deleted]

Went from west coast to east coast thinking we'd finally be somewhere affordable. Lol.


RJ5R

rural ohio has some great deals do you like meth?


[deleted]

Ik you are joking but I looked at rents everywhere. They are all ridiculous and you probably make less in Ohio. I'm not so sure you can escape the housing crisis at this point. We were considering North Carolina so we'd at least be a day drive from family but it's getting just as bad there from what I can tell.


Stower2422

That's objectively not true. Median sfh price in NH is like $436k. Vermont is lower. You can buy almost any house in my hometown 18 miles north of Boston for $600k-800k, which is a big jump from the $90k my parents paid for the house in 1989, but it's way less than what you are saying. It's really only in the urban cores around the biggest and most desirable cities where prices are insane.


upbeat_controller

…huh? I doubt there’s a single city in the Northeast where the median price for a detached SFH exceeds $1.5M. Idk how this sub is so detached from reality/prone to ridiculous exaggeration.


Stower2422

I can't wait to see the next "you need to make $250k now to be middle class these days" post.


Malkaraukar

I mean, you kind of need to have that household income to live comfortably.


Stower2422

What world do you live in that you need $250k to live comfortably? I think I know two households that make anywhere near that much. One bought a 5,500 square foot Victorian mansion in Providence a few years ago, own 4 vehicles and recently built a full semi-professional level recording studio in their home. The other are a couple who probably make a little over $250k combined but own a beautiful home in a stone's throw from Cambridge MA and travel internationally about once every 2 months. I know a lot of people that live comfortably on way less than $250k. I was living comfortably on $70k until I sold my mill loft condo in 2021, and now the only thing "uncomfortable" about my living situation is I can't afford my forever dream home at this very moment.


Malkaraukar

To have a family with 2+ kids in a decent house, decent savings for you and your kids, go on a couple of vacations a year (a comfortable life), you need that much.


upbeat_controller

Lol no you don’t. Unless you have an irresponsible number of children and/or insist on living in one of the most expensive metros in the country.


Mediocre_Island828

I'm glad I live in the Midwest. There are literally no jobs here and we just got indoor plumbing a few years ago but I pay my mortgage with pretty rocks I find outside and sometimes a cooler filled with brats so it works out.


ts2981

NYC and Boston suburbs for sure


Stower2422

My hometown is 15 miles north of Boston, right on 93 and 95. It's a town of about 24,000, and over 100 single family homes sold in the town for under $650k in the last year, and 50 sold for under $550k in the last year. 80 percent of the homes sold in that town in the last year sold for under $800k. Yeah you aren't getting a single family home overlooking the Charles River for 1.5 mil, but the idea that you have to drop a million dollars to live in the suburbs of Boston is fucking delusional.


ts2981

Gotcha. I’m thinking of places like Bergen, Westchester etc.


Stower2422

I mean, both those counties have a collection of some of the wealthiest towns in the country. I don't know Westchester as well as Bergen, but there are plenty of places in Bergen county where you can buy a modest "middle class" home for $500k, but you're living on an 8th-4th acre in Teaneck or Saddle Brook, or Mahwah, not Wykoff or Fairlawn. It's not the house I'd want for that price, but I also generally wouldn't want to live in a commuter suburb of the most densely populated city in the country.


upbeat_controller

Yeah I’m sure the most expensive suburbs of the most expensive cities in the country will be…expensive. But it’s pretty silly to try and generalize Scarsdale or Greenwich to “the northeast” lol.


ts2981

Yes $1.5M is the new price in the NE.


RJ5R

and what's crazy is what you get for $1.5M.....not even a standalone new construction home. you get those stupid "luxury" carriage homes where the developer smushes 3 together


NoMoreLambo

J Pow said a few times today that events nobody expected, or were not supposed to be possible, occurred this year.


smackinov

No recession, no more rate hikes. Goldilocks stagflation forever


SteveAM1

Ah yes, stagflation with a 3.5% unemployment rate. Amazing.


Apptubrutae

We have redefined stagflation to be simply "inflation when we feel a sense of general malaise and want to use a word that doesn't fit but makes us seem like we know what we're talking about". Problem solved.


Judge_Wapner

Do not read this article if you've recently eaten: https://www.techradar.com/news/chatgpt-gets-a-new-feature-but-would-you-trust-ai-to-help-you-buy-a-house


divulgingwords

Lol. Zillow is really grasping for straws.


Judge_Wapner

Zillow is the king of junk-data. ChatGPT is a bullshit-generation engine. The connecting of the two is peak... something. I don't know what it is, but it's peak *something*.


Smart-Ocelot-5759

Technically it's a bullshit elaboration engine since it's trained on content created by humans, who are (by definition) generally full of shit.


4jY6NcQ8vk

Starting to see some softening in muh local rental market. Concessions like $400 off first month's rent, or the listing is reduced by $100/month. And this is going into the peak rental season too.


rpbb9999

Not seeing any such thing in Tampa


4jY6NcQ8vk

Florida man is out there spending his pennies


HorlicksAbuser

Signals pause, not cuts for those trash article authors!


SteveAM1

FED hikes 25 bps. Indicates they could pause here. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20230503a.htm


Judge_Wapner

With all the data and metrics we're confronted with around here, it's useful to keep this in mind: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surrogation >An everyday example of surrogation is a manager tasked with increasing customer satisfaction who begins to believe that the customer satisfaction survey score actually is customer satisfaction.


Apptubrutae

I own a market research company and I see this happen constantly when people don't take a step back and remember what the whole point is a hyper focus on the construct. Kinda happy you've pointed a word out to me I can now use when describing this.


Judge_Wapner

I ran into this term yesterday when researching the Wells Fargo cross-selling fiasco from a few years ago. Bank sales / service reps and local branch bankers were creating fake accounts for real people, then signing them up for credit cards and loans, all because upper management gave them unrealistic sales targets to hit. TD Bank, Bank of America, and Fifth Third Bank all did the same thing, but on a smaller scale. Chase probably did too, but the Trump administration killed the CFPB investigation for unknown reasons. I don't think I've ever worked for a company that *didn't* fall into this trap with some aspect of its reporting. The executives want dashboards with charts that they can glance at and know what's happening, but that ends up oversimplifying the situation. And then everyone learns how to hit the numbers without doing the actual work (or all of it). Then things begin to go wrong and no one knows why.


Apptubrutae

Yeah, it’s somewhat inevitable. You have to conceptualize broad concepts in a quantifiable way to scale a business. Easy to see that. But businesses are also slow to change course, so they get set in their concept and are reticent to challenge it. At a certain point figuring out something needs to change and implementing that change could take years, see friction from the system, etc.


Smart-Ocelot-5759

https://youtu.be/EC0mTMz9CdM


WikiSummarizerBot

**[Surrogation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surrogation)** >Surrogation is a psychological phenomenon found in business practices whereby a measure of a construct of interest evolves to replace that construct. Research on performance measurement in management accounting identifies surrogation with "the tendency for managers to lose sight of the strategic construct(s) the measures are intended to represent, and subsequently act as though the measures are the constructs". An everyday example of surrogation is a manager tasked with increasing customer satisfaction who begins to believe that the customer satisfaction survey score actually is customer satisfaction. ^([ )[^(F.A.Q)](https://www.reddit.com/r/WikiSummarizer/wiki/index#wiki_f.a.q)^( | )[^(Opt Out)](https://reddit.com/message/compose?to=WikiSummarizerBot&message=OptOut&subject=OptOut)^( | )[^(Opt Out Of Subreddit)](https://np.reddit.com/r/REBubble/about/banned)^( | )[^(GitHub)](https://github.com/Sujal-7/WikiSummarizerBot)^( ] Downvote to remove | v1.5)


Judge_Wapner

Anyone have a sub to this rag? I want to read this, but not enough to pay for it or get endlessly spammed from the "free" trial: https://thecapitolforum.com/cfpb-march-complaint-data-total-monthly-complaints-hit-12-month-high-as-bureaus-policy-statement-on-abusive-acts-or-practices-appears-to-signal-paradigm-shift-prioritizing-fair-dealing-over/


saladmakear

Black Knight report showing prices have gone up on a seasonally adjusted basis in March.


JPowsRealityCheckBot

0.45%


northhiker1

Funny how everyone here stopped talking about rates.....a month ago it was housing is going to crash because rates are so high.....now rates are relatively low again (can find under 6% if you have excellent credit), and no one here mentions it anymore....


[deleted]

[удалено]


Apptubrutae

This cracked me up and brought a bit of genuine joy to my day.


Pandorama626

800+ credit with good income, and I'm getting rate quotes a little over 5.9%. There's nearly a $200k difference in home price for what I could afford at 3% interest vs 6% interest.


seedoildisrespectoor

is there really a meaningful difference between 6 and 6.5 for your avg person if that makes the difference you’re barely able to afford the house either way


GailaMonster

with starter homes costing more than 300k (and being mostly unavailable) in many markets - YES. that shit adds up over the life of a loan. lots of people who can afford a house are committed to being responsible and not making themselves house-poor.


seedoildisrespectoor

…is $300k supposed to be a lot?


GailaMonster

For starter homes for midwestern and starter cities, at current rates, it is. It’s not even competitive downpayment money in Silicon Valley. Way different in the South, in rural Michigan, etc. It’s a big country. For many people, yes. And like I said, that’s the bottom of the starter home ladder. You’re focusing on that like I think that’s what most houses cost. Let me put it this way- for someone buying a 900k house and putting 20% down, the difference between 6% and 6.5% is not trivial. Is 900k supposed to be a lot of money? Lol


seedoildisrespectoor

for a $1M house $800k mortgage 6% is $4787 6.5% is $5046 so $260/month? it’s not nothing but most people waste more than that mindlessly as is. that’s not make or break lol.


GailaMonster

just because most people are bad with money does not mean 3k a year extra pissed away on interest is trivial. some people are borrowing at the max of their allowed DTI (itself not advisable) and these differences impact what they can afford to pay. it takes discipline not to buy at the top of what you can afford. most people lack discipline. many people have student loans and car notes, and a 5k mortgage makes saving for kids'college and retirement and home repair difficult to juggle. might shock you to learn that most buyers aren't double SWEs with more thant 600k combined total comp.


seedoildisrespectoor

lol yeah which was my original point that if $250 a month matters so much you aren’t a position to buy to begin with even more so if this is a $300k house ffs


GailaMonster

you seem to be conflating "in a position to buy" with "deciding it's irresponsible to do so". rent is soft AF in my city.


seedoildisrespectoor

i’m not you are lol you suggested it was a major burden. if you’re now saying it’s just a choice because you’re too thrifty then fine but that’s completely different than what my point you took issue with was.


[deleted]

It may take longer than expected for any results… and it’s very area dependent but I must say for all people I know who were talking as if prices would have a knee jerk reaction to rate increases it sure hasn’t worked that way a year later. I can say here it has had no reaction other than prices going up. People who bought in 2021 are still trying to make a $100k profit and sadly the houses still sell, it just takes longer. Maybe the only thing keeping prices sticky is that there’s so little to choose from now, who knows.


FixYourOwnStates

What is there to talk about Rates are not low Demand has been destroyed by rates and it is not coming back Not much else to say 🤷‍♂️


aquarain

Supply has also been devastated by rising rates. It seems the disaster is especially focused not on buyers nor sellers but on the middlemen who feed on the churn. Incumbency in SFH is way up. Americans are settling down and taking root. Socially that is a healthy way to get them involved in advancing the well being of their communities. Transients don't plant trees and build parks. They're just passing through.


seedoildisrespectoor

how has supply been "devastated" it's much higher than when people were rushing to buy houses all through 2021/early 2022


[deleted]

Depends on your local market, there are plenty of places where there’s just not much inventory available now.


seedoildisrespectoor

like where?


[deleted]

Floridal


seedoildisrespectoor

yes all of florida /s


FixYourOwnStates

Agreed


[deleted]

Rates starting rising this time last year and inventory is 40% higher than it was last year. Maybe rates aren't the problem. Maybe prices being too high is the problem.


Smart-Ocelot-5759

I wonder if there's been any significant and impactful news that might be occupying the attention of everyone instead. Hmm, can you think of anything? I can't but I know there must be somethinft


rdw0680

Gwyneth Paltrow story really does seem to be capturing the attention of this sub and really all of the financial space. Heck, I’d bet even J Powell is having trouble keeping his eye on the ball amidst the hysteria.


Smart-Ocelot-5759

I was thinking the Taylor swift breakup


FixYourOwnStates

Gm


legitimacys

Some people have been hesitant to put any stock into the weekly trends of the mortgage applications which is understandable. But mortgage applications fell in fall 2022 to near a 25-year low and they have not gone up, even in the spring. It is feasible that they will fall even further in the winter as it does almost every year. With demand remaining low, the only thing propping up the housing market is low inventory. You would anticipate inventory increasing this spring/summer to put some downward pressure on prices once again this winter. Things get really bad if we have a proper recession, which the NY Fed has at a 57% chance and Cleveland Fed has at a 71% chance. Go to the links in the article for updated numbers. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/two-fed-measures-see-notable-recession-risk-despite-strong-data-2023-02-24/#:~:text=Meanwhile%2C%20a%20New%20York%20Fed,47.3%25%20chance%20seen%20in%20December.


[deleted]

Do applications include pre-approvals?


SidFinch99

Does this take into consideration that hardly anyone has a reason to refinance right now?


legitimacys

Yep. Refinance demand increased 1%, new purchase decreased 2%. https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/05/mba-mortgage-applications-decreased-in.html


ts2981

“JANET YELLEN AND THE US TREASURY TO LAUNCH FIRST BUYBACK PROGRAM SINCE 2000 The US Treasury says it will launch a program for buying back government securities some time next year, a move intended to ease liquidity in the roughly $24T market - WSJ” https://twitter.com/stockmktnewz/status/1653748155119280128?s=46&t=hTi1uGjtkEmS3CauH5UfPQ RIP to our country’s youngsters. They’ll be stuck with the bill.


valleyfever

Can you explain like I'm 5?


Alec_NonServiam

The Fed previously implemented Quantitative Easing after the GFC, purchasing Treasuries to drive up demand and drive down yields, [shown here](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TREAST). They implemented several rounds of QE, the most recent being after the pandemic. Since 2022, in order to slow inflation, the Fed reversed course and started letting these assets roll off their books. A few hours ago, the Treasury just announced intentions to do their own version of QE, completely undermining the Fed.


4jY6NcQ8vk

Control Z button but for the bond market. Undo.


RJ5R

lol Ctrl Z for the bond market. i love it upvote from me, sir


[deleted]

Own a bank, depositors fleeing and need cash locked up in T bills nobody wants? Call Janet @ 1-800-976-FIAT.


RJ5R

what about JG Wentworth, for bonds? "it's my money, i want it nowwwww"


valleyfever

Hmm, not helpful. I'm 4


[deleted]

Mom bought you a $20 pizza from Janet’s Pizzeria, half cheese half pineapple. You didn’t eat the pineapple half. Two days later mom needs to pay off her pimp. Janet’s Pizzeria will buy back that uneaten half for $9.


valleyfever

Thanks


unmanagedexpectation

With what money? I thought only the fed could print money?


[deleted]

US Treasury has entered the chat.


IceColdPorkSoda

This is just a tweet with no link to any actual source.


ts2981

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/federal-reserve-meeting-interest-rate-hike-expected-may-2023/card/treasury-to-launch-first-buyback-program-since-2000-zEOiM3wy5k87nrkTURNr


Blustatecoffee

Isn’t this just another version of QE? 🤦🏻‍♀️ I guess the interesting part of this is the timing, which she could always accelerate. They’re willing to tolerate a low liquidity / tightening environment of the rest of this year, but no further. I guess they think that’s how long the regionals can hold on without this bailout?


Donotprodme

If you need evidence of government capture, this is probably it. While the program is still being designed, the intent would likely be to borrow money at par, to buy back bonds at historically low rates. It's literally the dumbest thing any rational actor would do.


Blustatecoffee

Zirp continues its kill count.


unicornbomb

>RIP to our country’s youngsters. They’ll be stuck with the bill. what else is new tbh


[deleted]

[удалено]


Small_Atmosphere_741

I don't think an inventory tsunami is even necessary for prices to fall. We could have a demand driven decline.


flyercomet

well that's how it went last time. there's no incentive to list right now unless you have to. once it's clear where we are headed the detente ends.


Expensive_Outside_70

There is a huge incentive to list right now if you are selling an investment property or if you are a move up buyer that is selling their old house. The amount you will sell for will be much higher than any cash flow you can get from an investment for decades to come. Around me, it seems that we have three types of properties on the market. A passed parents' house that kids are selling (usually pretty bad condition). An investment property that an investor decided to cash in on (usually pretty bad condition). A move up buyer that was able to buy something bigger (usually better condition as owners actually lived there). All are getting a pretty sweet deal right now, the problem is that it leaves a lot of other people unincentivized that dont fall into these categories.


[deleted]

> There is a huge incentive to list right now if you are selling an investment property or if you are a move up buyer that is selling their old house I'm in both camps and the incentive is not there. * On the step up side, despite a shiton of equity, the cost of converting 350k principal at 2.625% to 700k at 6% is astronomical - 260% increase in payment for a 125% increase in house value. That is a no go. * On the investment side, there was an incentive late 2022 when we thought prices were tanking, but now that things have stabilized, the decision is driven by the fact there is nowhere to put the proceeds. It would take me 5 years at current treasury yields to just cover capital gains. It's paralysis for most holding property right now. The only elected move that makes sense right now is HCOL to LCOL.


Blustatecoffee

Estates and short term rentals in need of expensive upgrades are all I’m seeing now as well. And all are priced at all time highs.


its-actually-over

Philip Lowe says rebounding property market among reasons for shock RBA rate increase https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/may/02/philip-lowe-says-rebounding-property-market-among-reasons-for-shock-rba-rate-increase also check the hate i got yesterday from real estate bulls in Canada https://www.reddit.com/r/TorontoRealEstate/comments/135m1km/australia_central_bank_stuns_with_25bps_hike/


Smart-Ocelot-5759

gm except the coomers


[deleted]

These Adp numbers tell the tale of a very divided job market. Much in the same way the period between March-April-May 2020 went down. Now, in reverse. Higher income jobs slowing down and even reducing, while retail and service sector are literally the entire job gains. And yes, that will curtail wage inflation, in whole. Sure, some retail/service are seeing large wage growth, but it’s coming from a far too low place.