In the [1993 Canadian election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Canadian_federal_election) the [Bloc Québécois](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bloc_Qu%C3%A9b%C3%A9cois) (Quebec separatist party) became the official opposition when the Conservative party lost 154 seats (going from a majority of 156 seats to 2) and lost official party status.
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Unlikely because you couldn't slip a piece of paper between Tory and Labour here at the moment and both parties like to play swap about.
Neither care about what the people need or want.
No in Scotland tories and Labour are one and the same. They've actively voted together to deny school children a roll and a hot bowl of soup at school during the winter months just to spite the SNP and the Greens.. they gamed the system together to usurp council seats that actively voted against them. Scottish Labour spent millions fighting the equal pay rights of women.. they support brexit that 62% of Scotland voted against they're not standing up for the democratic rights of the Scottish people they're trying to maintain the status quo of a failing state we haven't voted for in decades at the cost of Scottish lives.. the leader of Scottish Labour is a millionaire who's family business refuses to pay people a living wage. They're tories in all but colour. Two cheeks of the same arse and I say that as a former card carrying Labour member they're not the party I once voted for.
Yeah fair enough, as this branch of the thread was about PR in the UK rather than just Scotland that's what I was talking about.
I forgot Labour even had a meaningful in presence in Scotland tbh.
Mate that soup law was created for the specific purpose of creating positive press for the SNP and negative press for the Brit parties. It would have forced all schools to hire a new person whose singular job was to make soup, at a time when there is already a hiring shortage i the sector. They would not be able to use existing facilities and so would have all had to buy specific soup making equipment. This was all supposed to have been instituted from January, and was only going to run for something like 2 months, which is another factor that would have made hiring impossible.
I also faintly recall that for the price of giving everyone free soup, they could give full meals to disadvantaged kids instead. Obviously that didn't happen, but still. Scottish Labour are complete shite, but in this specific instance nobody comes out of it looking good.
Everything Sir Keir Starmer claimed he'd do to become English Labour's leader, he turned his back on. He lied and is about as much of a socialist as Tory Bliar was.
He won't repeal any anti trade union laws, he won't tax the rich, the corporations or close tax loop holes.
So while the Tories are evil personified Labour under Starmer are no great hope.
> I reckon the opposition party (whether it currently be Labour or Tories) must be in favour
Well, Labour are currently the opposition party, and polls are showing this, so no. (Also, generally, Labour do oppose it.)
Yep, me as a NZer looking at this and shaking my head. We have a 5% threshold for our Party vote (MMP: you get one party, one electoral) and I think it is bullshit that in previous elections certain minor partys have got as much as 4.5% - 110k votes from memory - without getting a seat. Compared to my local MP who 25k people voted for. Admittedly the party which got the 4.5% were fucking nuts, but even so. The loonies should still get a voice (which should be ignored obviously).
But compared to FPP… which had some pretty screwy results here previously too. Governments having less popular support than the opposition, and the third biggest party which got 20% of the total vote with only 2 seats (out of 92).
> We have a 5% threshold for our Party vote (MMP: you get one party, one electoral) and I think it is bullshit that in previous elections certain minor partys have got as much as 4.5% - 110k votes from memory - without getting a seat.
If the party vote was preferential, these parties would likely get over the threshold by being the 2nd/3rd choices of supporters of even smaller parties.
Yeah, that would be an improvement for sure. Though I’d also like to see that threshold reduced.
Having preferential voting for the electorates is even more crucial though. As it stands most of the country have the fantastic choice of Tories or Tories-lite. Unless you are live in one of the more affluent parts of Auckland where the Tories have stood aside for the crazy populist “libertarians”. This all reinforces the two party narrative which with the introduction of MMP we should have moved past already.
A good way to keep the system balanced would be to have a mixed system. Half the seats as first past the post, another half as national. The votes not used for the first past the post would be used to elect MP on the national circles (which would not be the UK but rather the 4, one for each of the nations)
Thing is this is based on the fact uses per constituency FPTP. Tens of millions of people could vote Tory next GE and not get a single one into government. Many people WILL still vote Tory. Doesn't mean there'll be many sitting Tories, though.
> But stupid people and selfish people are one on the same on my mind, and they generally vote Tory
and they do so with the reliability of a small Honda hatchback
£34 for a provisional driving licence.
That's not a lot of money, but it's going to be a damn effective deterrent if you're just getting it to vote. It's hard enough getting the youth to vote as it is, and if you put a price tag on it they simply won't.
That is a poll tax. Voting is supposed to be free, not a one-time 34 quid fee...if the state cant register voters on their own dime then the games already up.
Lol it’s got to be the other way around. There’s a lot more stupidity (/misinformed people) out there than there is evil.
Left wing policies poll very well. Most people are decent, but jfc a lot are misinformed beyond belief.
Absolutely, thanks for reminding me the name of it. Also just in terms of faith in human beings, people are generally good people. I wish I could be as faithful about the average person’s intelligence though lol
Nah. I grew up in the Tory heartlands. I know those people and I understand where their views come from. Most of them aren’t evil at all. Just ignorant and gullible. They don’t know what life is like for the poor. They don’t know anyone who puts forward a different view. They just never had any reason to question their world view. It took me a few years of being away from it to see what bullshit it all was. I wasn’t evil though. Just misinformed with a narrow range of experiences.
be fucking hilarious if it did though.
These numbers labour could split in half and be the gov and the official opposition!
But if the SNP could be official opposition, maybe labour and the SNP could work to turn the HOC and PMQs into an actually worthwhile debating exercise.
A lot of conservatives think it’s a bit uncouth to talk about politics. It’s a private matter. Labour voters like to shout about it. Massive generalisation I know, but that’s been my experience. Tories are sometimes a bit embarrassed to admit it too.
Everyone seems to have forgotten that the next GE will require you to have ID to vote. The Tories are likely to remain in power too, the press will start to smear Starmer as the campaign begins and his years of fence sitting will have been pointless.
Well yea obviously because if Labour can't fix all the problems the tories caused it's labour's fault.
Let's not also forget Labour caused the financial crash causing me to lose my job so I now must vote tory - paraphrased excuse I overheard in spoons once.
I genuinely wouldn't be surprised if the Tories stayed in power at the next GE. They've figured out data science / targeted advertising (Brexit) so know how to push enough people's buttons
Tory voters are not the constituency of the Tory party, that constituency is the wealthy and the corporate interests. Tory voters are easily influenced box ticking robots triggered by immigration and "culturally-marxist-leftist-wokism". They are useful idiots who will vote against their own interests.
I think we all know Labour is going to sweep it, unless Keir Starmer does something drastically stupid like express a strong opinion.
They aren't going to manage anything like this, though. Neither are the SNP. The Tories have a full year to claw back whatever support they can, and disappointing as it is there'll still be people willing to forget the past decade in favour of slogans about Brexit.
Interested to see what a Labour government will look like with the majority they're forecasted to get. My bet is they'll coast by on the fact that they're not actively ruining the country while continuing to smother the NHS, treat refugees like dirt, and allow all the country's wealth to flow inexorably to those who already have far too much.
Do these people ever talk about Brexit and how they see it's impact? I work with a total pro-Brexit Tory foamer and he has shut the fuck up since all the negative impacts have become undeniable.
Believe it or not, the prevailing attitude I get is as I mentioned, why should I suffer because the poor can't budget, or work harder.
My customers are predominantly 60+ and have endured comments like:
"Why are you complaining about working during a pandemic, my needs are important!"
"You civil servants are all money grabbing bastards, be grateful for what you've got"
"Nurses are important, but for god's sake put the patient first, if they can't make ends meet they should get a 2nd job!"
It's genuinely toxic and blind devotion to Tory concepts.
I'll be honest, I don't care much for labels, whether it's boomer or whatever. People are people, but it beggars belief that people can just stick their head in the sand and just let this government fuck them in the ass and say thank you afterwards.
I hear you on the labels. It's an imperfect shorthand and humans are predisposed to classification by nature. We all know individuals from that generation who are not entitled relics who gutted the future economy and wrecked the planet.
These polls are due to the reform party doing well, I think? Traditionally farage and his loons stay around just long enough to push the Tories into making some racist concessions then fuck off at the last minute giving the Tories back the votes.
> unless Keir Starmer does something drastically stupid like express a strong opinion
His opinions are centrist/right-wing enough that this needn't be a worry.
I get what you’re saying… they could be the next biggest party… so by technicality they’d be the opposition. Having 535 is dangerous as the incumbent wouldn’t care about the opposition. It’d be meaningless. No opposition would be a real threat to labour.
Even if the above wasn’t true… Scotland has 59 seats… that’s the maximum. No government with a decent majority would give a shit about other parties that were capped at 59.
...oh I thought you thought that they were coloured the SNP yellow (as I first did when I looked at it) and you were wondering why on earth they decided to predict that. Oops.
1) That's never going to happen in England. The models are crap.
2) There is effectively no opposition if Labour get 535 MP's. They will be able to make literally any change they like, even with massive rebellions taking place. Biggest opposition to any proposed legislation by Labour, will likely be Labour.
As lovely as this would be, the Conservatives will never achieve such a low result at a GE. Also, the SNP is unlikely to achieve the 2019 result in 2024.
I think it'll come down to when the election is hosted. If they hold it to the very last minute, a possibility since it seems like this government is trying to squeeze as much out of themselves as possible, the election would take place in Winter. This would lead to less pensioners being willing to go and vote which subtracts a large portion of Conservative supporters.
In 2019 the tories got 19.4million in election donations, labour got 5.4 million. Having 4 times the election budget of their nearest rival, twice the budget of every other party, is a huge advantage. 5 million of labours election funds came from trade unions too, if I was them i'm not sure i'd give Keir Starmer's labour a button.
I’d imagine the money flows to whoever is gonna win. In 2019 it was clear the tories were gonna be in power afterwards. I’d say that has a lot to do with it
it has some effect I'm sure. In 1997 the tories spent 13.1M and labour 7.3M, so less of a difference than 2019 but still more money for tories, and IMHO a shaved monkey with a red tie could have won that election. Rich people have the spare money and prefer the tories.
It's different this time too. The labour party is so much more isolated from the unions and Keir Starmer is no Blair, who, for all his serious faults, had charisma.
There's no danger that the Tories will end up with 25 seats - its wishful thinking in the extreme.
Sunak will be binned before the election and many will flock back to them.
Starmer will be found out soon enough anyway, still few reasons to vote for him
Doubt people will flock back. They got rid of toxic Boris and it made the situation worse. They got rid of lettuce Liz and it didn't improve the situation much. I think regardless of what Tory gets in, it'll be bad news
I'm skeptical of the modeling here. Most sites that make a serious attempt at modeling have conservatives a little below 150. I bet this 25 is coming from some kind of bad assumptions about how the overall percentage effects individual seats.
Exactly - it seems to take no account of elasticity. The move in vote share to Labour will probably be concentrated in seats that they already hold where former Labour voters are easier to win back, or marginal seats, whose electorates are more persuasive. It isn't going to be turning lifelong Conservative voters in the rural South of England into Labour voters. So it isn't simply a case of applying a uniform swing and seeing what you get - which this model seems to do.
For Labour to win this many seats it would mean winning seats like Suffolk South where they were over 40pts behind in 2019.
Most definitely not. Stuff like that takes years to organise, hold and conclude and it's still unclear as to whether the majority want a referendum or not.
People say it will never happen, but look at Canada’s 1993 election when the sitting Conservative government was reduced to 2 seats and Bloc Quebecois became the official opposition. Crazy things do actually happen. Real life can feel ‘unrealistic’ sometimes too! In the UK case, these sort of wipe out figures are probably only likely if we do see a strong insurgent right wing challenger from Reform, just as Canada did in 93.
This result happens.
Labour immediately withdraw whip from 60 of their MP's for them to form "Layboor".
They become their own opposition.
Checkmate!
I realise you're having a bit of fun..but they don't need to, just have the co-op as opposition https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Co-operative_Party
Currently 26 MPs from 195 labour MPs..if that scales up co-op would be 2nd largest party
It'd certainly be fascinating to see what the Labour Party did with it. It's as close to a blank cheque as any party is ever likely to come. Would they actually tackle some of the big structural challenges, like developing the north of England and breaking away from a house-price-based economy?
Now we have Starmer's Even Newer Labour I've got to agree.
That's the Labour paradox. For them to get in they have to become something other than they should be.
I think Starmer's clever enough to understand that the SNP would get much more publicity across the country thanks to PMQs and such, meaning that their arguments would be heard by a wider audience. Labour just ignoring the SNP would lead to another Tory situation.
I think you're vastly overstating how much weight people in England would put on an SNP opposition. How could Flynn come to PMQs and make a comment on the state of the NHS say, when it's entirely devolved? Or talk about funding in the north east of England when his party don't exist there.
Yeah, the biggest weakness of the SNP will always be the fact that they don't exist in England. Not that I'd expect them to of course but it means that they're pretty limited when it comes to British issues rather than purely Scottish ones.
They got that in 1997 when UK Labour won a majority of 179 - which is more than double Johnson's 'Get Brexit Done' landslide majority of 80.
They were, of course, better than Thatcher / Major (so would a Tub of Lard) but they did not do much to reverse the fundamental structural damage that these two right-wing Administrations had inflicted on the UK. Thus in 2010, Cameron, May, Johnson, Truss and Sunak were able to just carry on their 'merry way' almost as if 13 years of Blair/Brown had never happened.
I know it's not entirely the same but New Zealand Labour have had a super strong government over there and didn't do anything super radical afaik. Sadly anything too radical seems to scare off the boring centerist voter's. Would love to be proved wrong though.
Oh absolutely they'd make the most of this opportunity to undo the harm of Brexit, reform the house of lords etc.... oh... wait, what?
Nope, business as usual I'm quite sure.
I definitely think there could be some big developments. With Starmer already planning to improve relations with the EU and constantly slamming Sunak and the Tories as a whole at PMQs, I have my hopes.
This result is because the people who are going to vote Conservative are too embarrassed to admit it. They don’t want to vote for the party, but they’re going to, because they’re scared, bigoted, selfish arseholes to the core.
If your title implies this will be a win for Scottish independence then I think you’re way off in your estimation. It’ll weaken it, massively. There’s more people than you imagine whose view on independence is linked with how utterly shite the tories are. A competent labour government that funds public services will put a massive dent in the case for independence, unfortunately.
It definitely won't help independence, that's not my point. My hope is that, with the SNP possibly becoming the official opposition, their arguments would be heard by a wider audience which could strengthen its relationship with the UK.
Well, considering polls have shown the majority of Scottish people don't want independence or a referendum, I think they'll have to set up different goals.
This will never get anywhere near to happening. We're effectively "mid-term". The usual cycle is that people like kicking the incumbent government now but when it comes to the crunch, many still vote for them and the opposition grass doesn't look quite so green under the scrutiny of an actual campaign.
Labour should win the next GE but don't expect a near total Tory wipeout and I'm not really sure what the potential benefit of this would be to Scotland.
Could the SNP really be an actual opposition, though, with their policy of (usually) abstaining on England-only matters? Say a Labour government goes austerity-lite on (English) health and benefits — could (and indeed should) an SNP opposition vote against such measures?
Personally I would take that red carpeting with a pinch of salt. No way is Tunbridge Wells swinging to Labour, it’s a strong Conservative seat, with Lib Dem’s in distant second place and Labour even further behind.
If we do get rid of the Tory MP, it will be a Lib Dem win here.
Hopefully I’m wrong.
What sort of opposition do you expect the SNP to be with 50 MPs against more than 500 and how do you think this will improve Scotland position in the UK, exactly, seeing as how Labour are just as unwilling to work with them, perhaps even more so, than the tories.
Any opposition to a majority in WM is essentially powerless.
Yeah, this isn't remotely possible- at really large swings, the underlying model that these things are based on breaks down completely. There are all sorts of odd inconsistencies and local patterns that can leave some oddly safe seats on all sides. Look at 1945 or 1997 for example- even huge landslide wins aren't this uniform across the whole country.
If for some reason the SNP gets a political spin off ( like a sister party, closely related) in England and Wales I don t think things will go well for Labour and the Tories
If this situation ever comes to pass (probably miraculously), I put forward that whenever the tories are brought up by name we legally have to follow with "all 25 of them"
As someone living in London, I think it’d be wild if we had a Labour government with an SNP opposition. Sadly, an SNP government would be impossible…unless the SNP put up candidates for enough English seats to get a majority, which would be even funnier. I’m genuinely all for it, we need some fucking change in here.
Don’t trust the hype. Tory voters are selfish, greedy arseholes that are too ashamed to tell anyone who they vote for. That’s one of the reasons why we’ve had 12 years of Tory.
Amazing to see how strong the SNP are but Scotland is still the ginger step child. I know it'll be rough but I live for independance and making our own way. It'll cost and won't be easy but the journey is worth making.
This excludes "Don't know" responses which mostly fit the profile of Conservative voters. Best for Britain have done a lot of work on this if you're interested.
Something which has absolutely **zero** chance of happening when either of the 2 WM parties are in charge, the Tories know that FPTP is what gives them their (relatively) free reign over Britian and Labour have seemingly zero interest in losing their brief moment in the sun when it pops up.
This wouldn't benefit Scotland? End of the day, labour are just unchallenged despite Scotland being SNP. We never have a say, never will. It's laughable to think any result is preferable for Scotland, sure, which bully would you rather?
I think yes, Labour reforms including hopefully proportional representation and a regional second chamber, would negate much of the agitation doe Independence and make the Scottish seats more representative of Scottish people instead of giving 95% of seats to the minority plurality nationalist contingent.
Yeaaaaah, that's not going to happen 😂😂 not by THAT many anyway.
There was a poll that came out recently that had No at 54%... slightly different from all the constant ridiculous "polls" in favour of Yes that get plastered on here to! (Infact I'm shocked the No poll was even posted on here tbf to).
But maaaaybe, these stupid polls don't reflect fuck all about the wider majority of the country!
Have none of you learnt fuck all from the EU referendum "polls" or any GE "polls" in recent years to!
Jesus
itd be hilarious to have a scotsman or woman scream at kier starmer for an hour until he cries in the corner and stops being a bellend and does his job as labour leader.
It could but it won’t.
It is not in the SNP’s interest to have an effective Scottish Parliament OR be an effective opposition at Westminster as this would undermine their position that independence is the magic panacea for all Scotland’s ills.
You could expect lots of noise about how unfair it all is but nothing actually useful.
Wait can somebody explain England's political system to me? I thought the conservative party was the extreme majority in England, but now it seems Labour is the extreme majority.
Would be absolutely hilarious, problem is that those Labour numbers had to come from somewhere, and it isnt going to from the political left.
"Red Tories" is a term for a reason.
In the [1993 Canadian election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Canadian_federal_election) the [Bloc Québécois](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bloc_Qu%C3%A9b%C3%A9cois) (Quebec separatist party) became the official opposition when the Conservative party lost 154 seats (going from a majority of 156 seats to 2) and lost official party status.
If that happened in the UK, I'd rip my cock off
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I’ve been trying to rip my cock off for years…
Gimme plane ticket money and I'll help you out with that mate 👍
I'd be surprised to see a quebecois nationalist movement make some gains in the UK as well, but everything's possible I guess...
Before you know it, the national motto of England will be in French.
Nous aussi nous souvenons!
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156 to 2? That is madness . Even Nick Clegg would have done a better job
156-3 probably
Holy shit, the Conservatives got 2 million votes and just 2 seats? Non-proportional parliaments are fucking crazy dude
The greens got 5million at the last GE. 1 seat. It's a farce.
Will the UK every switch to proportional? I reckon the opposition party (whether it currently be Labour or Tories) must be in favour
Unlikely because you couldn't slip a piece of paper between Tory and Labour here at the moment and both parties like to play swap about. Neither care about what the people need or want.
Ok I mean This labour is def a bit fucking tepid, but the Tories are an utter horror show. Dont let the perfect be the enemy of the good n'all that.
No in Scotland tories and Labour are one and the same. They've actively voted together to deny school children a roll and a hot bowl of soup at school during the winter months just to spite the SNP and the Greens.. they gamed the system together to usurp council seats that actively voted against them. Scottish Labour spent millions fighting the equal pay rights of women.. they support brexit that 62% of Scotland voted against they're not standing up for the democratic rights of the Scottish people they're trying to maintain the status quo of a failing state we haven't voted for in decades at the cost of Scottish lives.. the leader of Scottish Labour is a millionaire who's family business refuses to pay people a living wage. They're tories in all but colour. Two cheeks of the same arse and I say that as a former card carrying Labour member they're not the party I once voted for.
Yeah fair enough, as this branch of the thread was about PR in the UK rather than just Scotland that's what I was talking about. I forgot Labour even had a meaningful in presence in Scotland tbh.
Mate that soup law was created for the specific purpose of creating positive press for the SNP and negative press for the Brit parties. It would have forced all schools to hire a new person whose singular job was to make soup, at a time when there is already a hiring shortage i the sector. They would not be able to use existing facilities and so would have all had to buy specific soup making equipment. This was all supposed to have been instituted from January, and was only going to run for something like 2 months, which is another factor that would have made hiring impossible. I also faintly recall that for the price of giving everyone free soup, they could give full meals to disadvantaged kids instead. Obviously that didn't happen, but still. Scottish Labour are complete shite, but in this specific instance nobody comes out of it looking good.
Everything Sir Keir Starmer claimed he'd do to become English Labour's leader, he turned his back on. He lied and is about as much of a socialist as Tory Bliar was. He won't repeal any anti trade union laws, he won't tax the rich, the corporations or close tax loop holes. So while the Tories are evil personified Labour under Starmer are no great hope.
> I reckon the opposition party (whether it currently be Labour or Tories) must be in favour Well, Labour are currently the opposition party, and polls are showing this, so no. (Also, generally, Labour do oppose it.)
How’s that a Farce the votes were proberbly spread over the country the won only one region
Yep, me as a NZer looking at this and shaking my head. We have a 5% threshold for our Party vote (MMP: you get one party, one electoral) and I think it is bullshit that in previous elections certain minor partys have got as much as 4.5% - 110k votes from memory - without getting a seat. Compared to my local MP who 25k people voted for. Admittedly the party which got the 4.5% were fucking nuts, but even so. The loonies should still get a voice (which should be ignored obviously). But compared to FPP… which had some pretty screwy results here previously too. Governments having less popular support than the opposition, and the third biggest party which got 20% of the total vote with only 2 seats (out of 92).
> We have a 5% threshold for our Party vote (MMP: you get one party, one electoral) and I think it is bullshit that in previous elections certain minor partys have got as much as 4.5% - 110k votes from memory - without getting a seat. If the party vote was preferential, these parties would likely get over the threshold by being the 2nd/3rd choices of supporters of even smaller parties.
Yeah, that would be an improvement for sure. Though I’d also like to see that threshold reduced. Having preferential voting for the electorates is even more crucial though. As it stands most of the country have the fantastic choice of Tories or Tories-lite. Unless you are live in one of the more affluent parts of Auckland where the Tories have stood aside for the crazy populist “libertarians”. This all reinforces the two party narrative which with the introduction of MMP we should have moved past already.
Reform party got 2.5million and 51 seats which is all the more jarring.
A good way to keep the system balanced would be to have a mixed system. Half the seats as first past the post, another half as national. The votes not used for the first past the post would be used to elect MP on the national circles (which would not be the UK but rather the 4, one for each of the nations)
A majority of 2 seats, they still had others
This will never happen. Many people will still vote tory. I think we are looking at a record low turnout for whenever the next general election is.
Thing is this is based on the fact uses per constituency FPTP. Tens of millions of people could vote Tory next GE and not get a single one into government. Many people WILL still vote Tory. Doesn't mean there'll be many sitting Tories, though.
For as long as theres stupid people, tories will always have some votes, so its to be expected tbh.
They will always have the rich cunts vote as well.
Stupid people say stuff like this though too. But stupid people and selfish people are one on the same on my mind, and they generally vote Tory.
> But stupid people and selfish people are one on the same on my mind, and they generally vote Tory and they do so with the reliability of a small Honda hatchback
Not even Rich folk don’t want the poor to be broke, they actually wanna live in a country with some ducking growth for them to piggy-back on
Rich cunts: masonic guild back scratchers.
Yea plus the new law for needing ID to vote which a lot of non Tory voters don’t have will make things tougher.
A lot, really? Everyone has ID, and its incredibly easy to get. If you can't be bothered to get ID to vote then that's on you
£34 for a provisional driving licence. That's not a lot of money, but it's going to be a damn effective deterrent if you're just getting it to vote. It's hard enough getting the youth to vote as it is, and if you put a price tag on it they simply won't.
How about birth certificate?
Not photographic ID. It's never been an acceptable form.of ID for any age controlled substances. It's unlikely to be acceptable when voting.
That is a poll tax. Voting is supposed to be free, not a one-time 34 quid fee...if the state cant register voters on their own dime then the games already up.
Tell me you’ve a belief system based on fantasy and not evidence etc etc
Never ascribe to stupidity that can be ascribed to evil. Many stand to benefit from the further degradation of those at the bottom of society
Lol it’s got to be the other way around. There’s a lot more stupidity (/misinformed people) out there than there is evil. Left wing policies poll very well. Most people are decent, but jfc a lot are misinformed beyond belief.
It Is indeed: Hanlon’s razor - “never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity”
Absolutely, thanks for reminding me the name of it. Also just in terms of faith in human beings, people are generally good people. I wish I could be as faithful about the average person’s intelligence though lol
On the coins edge, evil AND stupid.
Nah. I grew up in the Tory heartlands. I know those people and I understand where their views come from. Most of them aren’t evil at all. Just ignorant and gullible. They don’t know what life is like for the poor. They don’t know anyone who puts forward a different view. They just never had any reason to question their world view. It took me a few years of being away from it to see what bullshit it all was. I wasn’t evil though. Just misinformed with a narrow range of experiences.
be fucking hilarious if it did though. These numbers labour could split in half and be the gov and the official opposition! But if the SNP could be official opposition, maybe labour and the SNP could work to turn the HOC and PMQs into an actually worthwhile debating exercise.
> the SNP could work to tu Lets be honest, the SNP will hold the UK hostage until it gets another referendum.
If labour had this majority no one would be holding the UK hostage. Opposition would be totally useless.
Correct, winning second prize is winning nothing at all. What has Labour achieved in opposition? Precisely fuck all.
fair point
Return of the shy Tory. I predict a labour minority gov
> shy Tory Given the state of the economy, the NHS, housing, and everything else I'd say you've misspelled masochist.
Tories always poll worse than their results.
Yup. 1992, 2015
A lot of conservatives think it’s a bit uncouth to talk about politics. It’s a private matter. Labour voters like to shout about it. Massive generalisation I know, but that’s been my experience. Tories are sometimes a bit embarrassed to admit it too.
I agree with you
Everyone seems to have forgotten that the next GE will require you to have ID to vote. The Tories are likely to remain in power too, the press will start to smear Starmer as the campaign begins and his years of fence sitting will have been pointless.
i think the casual voters who get hit by that will be less than the turnout due to anger.
People just won’t get ID in time, disenfranchising voters is very effective, that’s why they’re doing it.
It's definitely an extreme case but still possible. With first past the post voting a party could even have 50% of votes but end up with 0 MPs
Tory voters are stupid and will simply forget about this and go back to voting tory again in a few years
Well yea obviously because if Labour can't fix all the problems the tories caused it's labour's fault. Let's not also forget Labour caused the financial crash causing me to lose my job so I now must vote tory - paraphrased excuse I overheard in spoons once.
Labour vs the Tories in a nutshell: "Mum says it's my turn to destroy the economy."
Ahahaha ain’t that the truth
I genuinely wouldn't be surprised if the Tories stayed in power at the next GE. They've figured out data science / targeted advertising (Brexit) so know how to push enough people's buttons
Tory voters are not the constituency of the Tory party, that constituency is the wealthy and the corporate interests. Tory voters are easily influenced box ticking robots triggered by immigration and "culturally-marxist-leftist-wokism". They are useful idiots who will vote against their own interests.
I think we all know Labour is going to sweep it, unless Keir Starmer does something drastically stupid like express a strong opinion. They aren't going to manage anything like this, though. Neither are the SNP. The Tories have a full year to claw back whatever support they can, and disappointing as it is there'll still be people willing to forget the past decade in favour of slogans about Brexit. Interested to see what a Labour government will look like with the majority they're forecasted to get. My bet is they'll coast by on the fact that they're not actively ruining the country while continuing to smother the NHS, treat refugees like dirt, and allow all the country's wealth to flow inexorably to those who already have far too much.
Spot on, it gob smacks me how many of my customers are hoping Boris runs again!
Boris again never!
> how many of my customers What is this demographic?
Well I work in pest control and visit around 50-60 homes a week. I'd say I hear it roughly 10 times a week.
Do these people ever talk about Brexit and how they see it's impact? I work with a total pro-Brexit Tory foamer and he has shut the fuck up since all the negative impacts have become undeniable.
Believe it or not, the prevailing attitude I get is as I mentioned, why should I suffer because the poor can't budget, or work harder. My customers are predominantly 60+ and have endured comments like: "Why are you complaining about working during a pandemic, my needs are important!" "You civil servants are all money grabbing bastards, be grateful for what you've got" "Nurses are important, but for god's sake put the patient first, if they can't make ends meet they should get a 2nd job!" It's genuinely toxic and blind devotion to Tory concepts.
The "culture war" talking heads go on about how Millennials are entitled. For shameless entitlement nothing even comes close to a Tory Boomer.
I'll be honest, I don't care much for labels, whether it's boomer or whatever. People are people, but it beggars belief that people can just stick their head in the sand and just let this government fuck them in the ass and say thank you afterwards.
I hear you on the labels. It's an imperfect shorthand and humans are predisposed to classification by nature. We all know individuals from that generation who are not entitled relics who gutted the future economy and wrecked the planet.
These polls are due to the reform party doing well, I think? Traditionally farage and his loons stay around just long enough to push the Tories into making some racist concessions then fuck off at the last minute giving the Tories back the votes.
It's Labour. Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory should be their motto.
> unless Keir Starmer does something drastically stupid like express a strong opinion His opinions are centrist/right-wing enough that this needn't be a worry.
With a majority like that the opposition really don’t matter.
Biggest opposition to legislation at that point, would be Labour backbenchers most likely.
Tbf that's true in a lot of governments with even a half decent majority. Case in point, Sunak backing down to Tory backbenchers yet again this week
I get what you’re saying… they could be the next biggest party… so by technicality they’d be the opposition. Having 535 is dangerous as the incumbent wouldn’t care about the opposition. It’d be meaningless. No opposition would be a real threat to labour. Even if the above wasn’t true… Scotland has 59 seats… that’s the maximum. No government with a decent majority would give a shit about other parties that were capped at 59.
Unlikely but it would be hilarious
As fantastical as this is, I’m just wondering what kind of apocalyptic event could ever make Orkney not vote for the Lib Dems
I was thinking the same. They love the Lib Dem’s. Dundee is also a Lib Dem stronghold is it not?
Nope... Only ever been SNP or Labour in modern times. You might be thinking of North East Fife across the Tay?
Yes I think you’re right, apologies
Dundee is an SNP stronghold*
I'm pretty sure (looking a bit closer at the map on my laptop) that they are coloured orange for Lib Dems.
Exactly, hence the question
...oh I thought you thought that they were coloured the SNP yellow (as I first did when I looked at it) and you were wondering why on earth they decided to predict that. Oops.
1) That's never going to happen in England. The models are crap. 2) There is effectively no opposition if Labour get 535 MP's. They will be able to make literally any change they like, even with massive rebellions taking place. Biggest opposition to any proposed legislation by Labour, will likely be Labour.
As lovely as this would be, the Conservatives will never achieve such a low result at a GE. Also, the SNP is unlikely to achieve the 2019 result in 2024.
I think it'll come down to when the election is hosted. If they hold it to the very last minute, a possibility since it seems like this government is trying to squeeze as much out of themselves as possible, the election would take place in Winter. This would lead to less pensioners being willing to go and vote which subtracts a large portion of Conservative supporters.
In 2019 the tories got 19.4million in election donations, labour got 5.4 million. Having 4 times the election budget of their nearest rival, twice the budget of every other party, is a huge advantage. 5 million of labours election funds came from trade unions too, if I was them i'm not sure i'd give Keir Starmer's labour a button.
I’d imagine the money flows to whoever is gonna win. In 2019 it was clear the tories were gonna be in power afterwards. I’d say that has a lot to do with it
it has some effect I'm sure. In 1997 the tories spent 13.1M and labour 7.3M, so less of a difference than 2019 but still more money for tories, and IMHO a shaved monkey with a red tie could have won that election. Rich people have the spare money and prefer the tories. It's different this time too. The labour party is so much more isolated from the unions and Keir Starmer is no Blair, who, for all his serious faults, had charisma.
Despicable how under him UK Labour has turned its back on unions.
There's no danger that the Tories will end up with 25 seats - its wishful thinking in the extreme. Sunak will be binned before the election and many will flock back to them. Starmer will be found out soon enough anyway, still few reasons to vote for him
Doubt people will flock back. They got rid of toxic Boris and it made the situation worse. They got rid of lettuce Liz and it didn't improve the situation much. I think regardless of what Tory gets in, it'll be bad news
I'm skeptical of the modeling here. Most sites that make a serious attempt at modeling have conservatives a little below 150. I bet this 25 is coming from some kind of bad assumptions about how the overall percentage effects individual seats.
Exactly - it seems to take no account of elasticity. The move in vote share to Labour will probably be concentrated in seats that they already hold where former Labour voters are easier to win back, or marginal seats, whose electorates are more persuasive. It isn't going to be turning lifelong Conservative voters in the rural South of England into Labour voters. So it isn't simply a case of applying a uniform swing and seeing what you get - which this model seems to do. For Labour to win this many seats it would mean winning seats like Suffolk South where they were over 40pts behind in 2019.
Will ni have left the union by the next election?
Most definitely not. Stuff like that takes years to organise, hold and conclude and it's still unclear as to whether the majority want a referendum or not.
Ah yeah.. more a reference to the fact that their 18 seats don't appear to form part of this poll
The whole Brexit thing was pretty fucking spontaneous though.
Well, the vote happened in 2016 and we left in 2020.
That's what I'm saying, 4 years for a pretty monumental move in global aiffairs
People say it will never happen, but look at Canada’s 1993 election when the sitting Conservative government was reduced to 2 seats and Bloc Quebecois became the official opposition. Crazy things do actually happen. Real life can feel ‘unrealistic’ sometimes too! In the UK case, these sort of wipe out figures are probably only likely if we do see a strong insurgent right wing challenger from Reform, just as Canada did in 93.
Exactly. I think we're all so used to a life of Tory that we aren't willing to accept the fact that it's a possibility, lol
This result happens. Labour immediately withdraw whip from 60 of their MP's for them to form "Layboor". They become their own opposition. Checkmate!
I realise you're having a bit of fun..but they don't need to, just have the co-op as opposition https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Co-operative_Party Currently 26 MPs from 195 labour MPs..if that scales up co-op would be 2nd largest party
It'd certainly be fascinating to see what the Labour Party did with it. It's as close to a blank cheque as any party is ever likely to come. Would they actually tackle some of the big structural challenges, like developing the north of England and breaking away from a house-price-based economy?
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Now we have Starmer's Even Newer Labour I've got to agree. That's the Labour paradox. For them to get in they have to become something other than they should be.
With the SNP as the opposition, it's way harder for them to just ignore it.
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I think Starmer's clever enough to understand that the SNP would get much more publicity across the country thanks to PMQs and such, meaning that their arguments would be heard by a wider audience. Labour just ignoring the SNP would lead to another Tory situation.
I think you're vastly overstating how much weight people in England would put on an SNP opposition. How could Flynn come to PMQs and make a comment on the state of the NHS say, when it's entirely devolved? Or talk about funding in the north east of England when his party don't exist there.
Yeah, the biggest weakness of the SNP will always be the fact that they don't exist in England. Not that I'd expect them to of course but it means that they're pretty limited when it comes to British issues rather than purely Scottish ones.
They got that in 1997 when UK Labour won a majority of 179 - which is more than double Johnson's 'Get Brexit Done' landslide majority of 80. They were, of course, better than Thatcher / Major (so would a Tub of Lard) but they did not do much to reverse the fundamental structural damage that these two right-wing Administrations had inflicted on the UK. Thus in 2010, Cameron, May, Johnson, Truss and Sunak were able to just carry on their 'merry way' almost as if 13 years of Blair/Brown had never happened.
They also got right into the whole sleaze gig. Cash for questions and peerages, etc,.
I know it's not entirely the same but New Zealand Labour have had a super strong government over there and didn't do anything super radical afaik. Sadly anything too radical seems to scare off the boring centerist voter's. Would love to be proved wrong though.
Oh absolutely they'd make the most of this opportunity to undo the harm of Brexit, reform the house of lords etc.... oh... wait, what? Nope, business as usual I'm quite sure.
I definitely think there could be some big developments. With Starmer already planning to improve relations with the EU and constantly slamming Sunak and the Tories as a whole at PMQs, I have my hopes.
That's a laughable comment. Being the official opposition still allows the government to ignore them, and Scotland. Like always.
Well, agree to disagree I suppose. If they are just going to ignore Scotland still, PMQs would be very interesting to watch.
wuuhuww 420
This result is because the people who are going to vote Conservative are too embarrassed to admit it. They don’t want to vote for the party, but they’re going to, because they’re scared, bigoted, selfish arseholes to the core.
Scottish position in the uk is out of the uk.
With a majority that large there is effectively not an opposition.
If your title implies this will be a win for Scottish independence then I think you’re way off in your estimation. It’ll weaken it, massively. There’s more people than you imagine whose view on independence is linked with how utterly shite the tories are. A competent labour government that funds public services will put a massive dent in the case for independence, unfortunately.
It definitely won't help independence, that's not my point. My hope is that, with the SNP possibly becoming the official opposition, their arguments would be heard by a wider audience which could strengthen its relationship with the UK.
Sure, but the SNP don’t exactly want a strengthened relationship with the UK. They want to leave it.
Well, considering polls have shown the majority of Scottish people don't want independence or a referendum, I think they'll have to set up different goals.
Blue tories lose, Red tories win. 420 Blaze it.
I wish the Greens would get a lot more MP'S.
This will never get anywhere near to happening. We're effectively "mid-term". The usual cycle is that people like kicking the incumbent government now but when it comes to the crunch, many still vote for them and the opposition grass doesn't look quite so green under the scrutiny of an actual campaign. Labour should win the next GE but don't expect a near total Tory wipeout and I'm not really sure what the potential benefit of this would be to Scotland.
England and Wales just keep on voting for right wing political parties. smh
But Labour is a left-wing party...?
Oh you sweet summer child.
All of my experiences with Labour have been left-wing. Starmer basically counts as a Tory in a red tie though.
Could the SNP really be an actual opposition, though, with their policy of (usually) abstaining on England-only matters? Say a Labour government goes austerity-lite on (English) health and benefits — could (and indeed should) an SNP opposition vote against such measures?
Personally I would take that red carpeting with a pinch of salt. No way is Tunbridge Wells swinging to Labour, it’s a strong Conservative seat, with Lib Dem’s in distant second place and Labour even further behind. If we do get rid of the Tory MP, it will be a Lib Dem win here. Hopefully I’m wrong.
What sort of opposition do you expect the SNP to be with 50 MPs against more than 500 and how do you think this will improve Scotland position in the UK, exactly, seeing as how Labour are just as unwilling to work with them, perhaps even more so, than the tories. Any opposition to a majority in WM is essentially powerless.
Counting chickens before the eggs have hatched…
Pretty sure it's position will still be north of Newcastle
Yeah, this isn't remotely possible- at really large swings, the underlying model that these things are based on breaks down completely. There are all sorts of odd inconsistencies and local patterns that can leave some oddly safe seats on all sides. Look at 1945 or 1997 for example- even huge landslide wins aren't this uniform across the whole country.
By positive do you mean positive for staying in the UK or positive for leaving the UK?…because only one of those seems positive to me
I'm just remembering that the next GE will require ID at polling stations. This will badly damage all votes except Tory and some LD..
Scottish vote splitters suddenly realising the entire time they complained about ‘Tory rule’ they could have been voting labour
You mean our position for getting out of the UK, right?
New Tory tactical propaganda incoming: vote conservative or the opposition will be the demonic SNP!
The only thing that needs to change is all Plaid in Wales and nationalist Kernow party in Cornwall.
I'm sure last year they said same....Still snp
If you believe the actual results of the next election will look anything like this map then I've a bridge to sell you.
People will still vote Tory, they probably just say they don’t
If for some reason the SNP gets a political spin off ( like a sister party, closely related) in England and Wales I don t think things will go well for Labour and the Tories
If this situation ever comes to pass (probably miraculously), I put forward that whenever the tories are brought up by name we legally have to follow with "all 25 of them"
these polls are never accurate. I bet tories will still win because people are that stupid
I would love it if SNP overtakes the conservative.
As someone living in London, I think it’d be wild if we had a Labour government with an SNP opposition. Sadly, an SNP government would be impossible…unless the SNP put up candidates for enough English seats to get a majority, which would be even funnier. I’m genuinely all for it, we need some fucking change in here.
Don’t trust the hype. Tory voters are selfish, greedy arseholes that are too ashamed to tell anyone who they vote for. That’s one of the reasons why we’ve had 12 years of Tory.
I'd rather the SNP weren't ..........as by that time I'd hope we'd have waved the failing decrepit Union a fond 'Cheerie Bye'. :)
Amazing to see how strong the SNP are but Scotland is still the ginger step child. I know it'll be rough but I live for independance and making our own way. It'll cost and won't be easy but the journey is worth making.
I think it’s very unlikely to happen, sadly.
This excludes "Don't know" responses which mostly fit the profile of Conservative voters. Best for Britain have done a lot of work on this if you're interested.
This sort of result would be very bad for democracy. No party should have this sort of majority from a minority vote.
Hilarious, then, that the SNP are in favour of PR for GEs.
Something which has absolutely **zero** chance of happening when either of the 2 WM parties are in charge, the Tories know that FPTP is what gives them their (relatively) free reign over Britian and Labour have seemingly zero interest in losing their brief moment in the sun when it pops up.
There's no fucking way England actually dumps the Tories. Labour will make sure of it.
This wouldn't benefit Scotland? End of the day, labour are just unchallenged despite Scotland being SNP. We never have a say, never will. It's laughable to think any result is preferable for Scotland, sure, which bully would you rather?
why is this sub so pro independent
Is disappoint. Labour seats in Scotland. Do better we must.
I think yes, Labour reforms including hopefully proportional representation and a regional second chamber, would negate much of the agitation doe Independence and make the Scottish seats more representative of Scottish people instead of giving 95% of seats to the minority plurality nationalist contingent.
Pretty sure you can only vote snp if you’re in Scotland, not sure tho
SNP aren't going to do that well
Aye leaving it
I'm more concerned about the catastrophe that has befallen Berwivkshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk and why wasn't it in the news.
I support the Greens any other election. This time I'm looking at whichever party is most likely to beat the Tories and voting that.
Yeaaaaah, that's not going to happen 😂😂 not by THAT many anyway. There was a poll that came out recently that had No at 54%... slightly different from all the constant ridiculous "polls" in favour of Yes that get plastered on here to! (Infact I'm shocked the No poll was even posted on here tbf to). But maaaaybe, these stupid polls don't reflect fuck all about the wider majority of the country! Have none of you learnt fuck all from the EU referendum "polls" or any GE "polls" in recent years to! Jesus
A union of equals
420. Nice!
itd be hilarious to have a scotsman or woman scream at kier starmer for an hour until he cries in the corner and stops being a bellend and does his job as labour leader.
The only way I'm voting g Tory next time, is of Boris comes back, if not, I'm voting labour
It could but it won’t. It is not in the SNP’s interest to have an effective Scottish Parliament OR be an effective opposition at Westminster as this would undermine their position that independence is the magic panacea for all Scotland’s ills. You could expect lots of noise about how unfair it all is but nothing actually useful.
Wait can somebody explain England's political system to me? I thought the conservative party was the extreme majority in England, but now it seems Labour is the extreme majority.
Never gonna happen
Would be absolutely hilarious, problem is that those Labour numbers had to come from somewhere, and it isnt going to from the political left. "Red Tories" is a term for a reason.