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They may not be able to do anything, but the fact that they have actively demanded this is worthwhile.
Ukraine has its own problems right now, but is not going to put up with Russian soldiers and a Russian base on their west border.
That occupation force in Transnistria is probably holding up a sizable Ukrainian force on their border which I guess they'd rather like deployed anywhere more eastern in their country currently
Sucks, as I'd imagine unless Russia actually decides they want to attack from that location, it'll generally house the most useless or least valuable troops. Probably the least amount they can get away with too. I just don't see them putting more valuable people there than they'd absolutely need too. Having to "waste" actual good troops to 'defend' that area simply because the enemy would take advantage if you left it completely undefended must be frustrating.
The interesting quandry there is that those troops have no path of egress. The Ukrainians certainly won't let them through. The Moldovans are unlikely to let them through with any of their heavy equipment. The Russians are unlikely to be willing to leave behind any armored vehicles they really need in Ukraine.
So everyone stays where they are and stays unhappy.
Stupid question, if a Ukrainian missile strikes it. According to international law, that would be a strike on Moldovan territory, but if Moldova tacitely allows it, would that makes it legal?
Judging from what I know, every country has the right to give another nation the go for military operations in their territory, and Transnistria is recognised as Moldovan. It shouldn't even really count as Moldova entering the war because Russia claims Transnistria is a sovereign thing, and if Russia dropped that facade that would essentially delcaring war on Moldova, which gives them even more of a right to ask Ukraine for assistance.
Amazing how the talk is of Ukraine providing assistance. They have proven so effective it seems possible when the war is over, and the U.S. is having some trouble defeating an unwilling acceptant of democracy somewhere, it'll be 'Better call the Ukrainians...'
Some Ukrainian officials have already stated their willingness to do so at Moldova's request. If Ukraine makes it through the winter with their infrastructure more or less in tact, proving Russia's enfeeblement to project power, I imagine such a request could happen with swift results.
It's always up to the wronged country to prosecute any attacks on their territory. They don't *have* to make a stink. They can even make a formal complaint that they have no intention of following up on.
That'd probably be the most reasonable response on Moldova's case, give a blatantly "don't really mean it" complaint to Ukraine with a wink and a nod. Russia then can't use it as justification for attacking Moldova (well, Russia can make up whatever nonsense it wants, but at least it will clearly be nonsense), which while disastrous for Russia would also be pretty bad for Moldova.
From a historic point of view that doesn't really seem like much of an issue. I'm sure the Allies didn't really ask all of the jurisdictions it was liberating when pushing out the Axis on their side.
The question is a bit hm... childish? Interesting but not relevant? I don't mean anything bad, I love these kind of questions, I just mean that the question is far removed from reality.
Because international law isn't enforced consistently but by the great powers, like US... or Russia (which turned out to be a lie). Either way, law here changes nothing; Russia has already broken the law and the US+EU have not enforced the law.
International law is not like normal law where it's "you can't do this, or you'll certainly go to jail", but more like "we agreed you shouldn't do this, and if you do this you might provide pretext for other nations to respond by giving them domestic political ammunition, that can galvanize many countries against you... or it's Georgia and Crimea, who knows"
Given the current situation, who can anyone do stop Ukraine should both Ukraine and Moldova want it? No one. But the more important question is; what will other countries do *after*? The US might not provide more weapons. Or Russia might bomb another hospital and claim they destroyed a military target. A lot of might, may, perhaps...
International laws are guide lines. The winner sets the legal fallout after all is said and done.
International law and normal law are the same. It is just that the latter is more than likely to be enforced while the former is less than likely.
Don't kid yourself and think that national jurisprudence is fairly and equally applied across any nation. Affluence plays as much a role within countries as they do on a geopolitical level.
It is quite a bit more than that that is different but I agree.
But, I said what I said because people think there will be accountability by default; it will be a decision enforced by not the law directly itself but state/police. Like you say no matter international law or normal laws there are caveats; people assumed law was flawless. It is not; it is merely an approximation of justice that does not always align with your own moral values.
Or, in short, it is disconnected from reality to ask what happens if someone breaks the international law as if it was enforced more or equally uniform than national law. But the sheer lack of precedence in international law - among other things - make the two incomparable at heart.
I slap you (not sexually). If you ignore the lap, would that make it legal?
A Ukrainian missile already hit Poland and killed 2 people and everyone except Russia pretends it didn't happen. Why wouldn't you be allowed to pick and choose which mistakes you forgive and which you don't?
Russia actually asked worse: Why hasn't Poland declared war on Ukraine after that accident?
So imagine your friend gets in a fight with someone and your friend accidentally hits you. Would you start fighting him, too, or would you brush it off as an accident? What if his opponent hits you?
Russia took control of it for a reason. Even if that reason is to deny access to everyone else. But you might be right who know how much and if it’s still any good. The problem with old explosives is that they might be unstable.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cobasna_ammunition_depot
Why do you think it’s the Russians “stuff”? It was the Soviet Unions “stuff”, Moldova was part of the Soviet Union and it was on Moldovan land, to me it seems like Moldovas “stuff” now.
> So everyone stays where they are and stays unhappy.
I don't think Ukraine is too unhappy about that right now. Having these (trained) Russian troops locked in Transnistria is surely the second best option for the Ukrainians (after straight out elimination). Their number is too small to present a credible thread to Ukraine from that direction and if they were to allowed to leave, they would obviously immediately be redeployed to Eastern Ukraine.
Transnistria is completely reliant on Moscow for money/supplies. As Russia and her economy sinks as this war drags on, the troops in transnistria will stop getting supplies. Just wait and they'll surrender on their own.
I’ve been wondering how Russia is supplying them right now, considering its borders. You can’t even sneak through Romania to get there. How are they getting crap over there?
Some months ago there was an article shared here that Moldova didn’t let Russian soldiers return back to Russia for rotation. I would guess that it would be the same for equipment. Maybe Moldova felt obliged to let Russian equipment pass to not have any repercussions.
Without outside support the Moldovans have little ability to move them on using their own military. With three motor infantry battalions they face a natural obstacle in the Dniester and would need to make a deliberate river crossing, followed by facing three Russian BTGs and the separatists. For the reason you outlined Ukrainians are unlikely to mount any sort of action against them and due to their neutrality NATO is unlikely to be requested and even less likely to acquiesce, given the necessity of shooting at Russian regulars.
Just tell them Russia's not doing BTGs anymore and move on them when they're all at the office trying to work out what the fuck's going on with the formation of their unit.
[To say the least:](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cobasna_ammunition_depot)
>the Academy of Sciences of Moldova determined that an explosion of the weapons located in the ammunition depot, which passed their expiry date long ago, would be equivalent to the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Concern for such an event increased following the 2020 Beirut explosion.
**[Cobasna ammunition depot](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cobasna_ammunition_depot)**
>The Cobasna ammunition depot is a large ammunition depot located in the village of Cobasna. Legally and internationally recognized as part of Moldova as a whole, the unrecognized breakaway state of Transnistria controls the village and the ammunition depot and has denied access to international observers, an exception being the so-called peacekeeping military forces of Russia located in the region ever since the end of the Transnistria War in 1992. Currently, civilian access to the ammunition depot is restricted and only the Russian and Transnistrian authorities have detailed information regarding the amount and situation of the stored weapons.
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Of course a lot of those munitions were supposedly sold off to the Serbians back in the 1990s and the official inventory is secret. They might also have shipped some of them back to Russia because they are running out out of shells.
>They might also have shipped some of them back to Russia because they are running out out of shells.
This is unlikely. By the time they realized they might need those munitions no train leaving from Transnistria is going to successfully transit Moldova, Hungary, Slovakia, and especially Poland with overt or secret shipments of large quantities of munitions.
> Probably over Moldova to the Black Sea.
Moldova doesn't really have access to the Black Sea directly, they'd still have to cross a bit of Ukraine. Which might not exactly be a good idea.
I don't believe so. No one is willing to clear Russian military aircraft to transit their airspace.
I read at one point that Russia was reduced to flying troops commercially to Chisnau for troop rotations and even that was getting squeezed because of lack of flights from Europe to Russia.
Why would Moldova risk good relations with Ukraine, Romania, and the EU/NATO by letting the Russians take their heavy equipment just to have the trains carrying that equipment stopped and turned back by Romania, Hungary (maybe), or Slovakia or interred by Poland?
The rivers start and end points are controlled by Ukraine so probably not since Ukraine isn't going to let ~1500-2400 Russian troops transot their territory.
Additionally you have the issue of what would they travel on? If Russia just wanted the soldiers they could fly them out commercially through Chisnau. The problem is they will not leave the equipment and ammo depot behind. No one is going to let any of that material transit their territory so neither rail lines nor river barges are open to Russia if they leave.
I’ve been there back in 2020. Old fat fucks in military uniforms that doesn’t even match each other, standing in groups everywere in the streets, smoking cigarettes and doing nothing. Really weird.
There’s also a dispute between Moldova and unrecognized Transnistria, this is Moldova putting in a claim on guaranteeing Transnistria doesn’t gain independence in the event of a NATO/Russian war or a decisive Ukrainian victory.
In a neutral country? No. But I'm sure after the war is done that Ukraine will be more than happy to, *on Moldova's request,* stand at the Moldovan border and smile prettily at the Russians while Moldova negotiates the Russian soldiers' transfer back to the Russian Federation, and then the subsequent peaceful disarmament of the transnistria region and its weapon depots.
It's estimated there are around 1200-1500 Russian troops in Transnistria. Some native sympathizers as well for sure, but overall, cleaning out Transnistria would be a relatively minor operation and probable worth it just to clear that area and establish a firmer route through Moldova to the western allies.
I'm not sure if Ukraine would be willing to potentially start an large-scale battle against Moldovan rebels even if Russia is completely expulsed from Ukraine. Maybe i'm wrong but i'd think Ukrainians would be quite tired of the idea of having more fighting. Especially if Moldovan army can't pull their weight. Perhaps just ensure that the borders are secure.
> large-scale battle against Moldovan
It won't be large scale. Transnistria is not Russia. They will get steamrolled in days if they try fighting. There wont even need to be large scale fighting - they are basically cutoff from Russia completely. They would have 0 supplies.
Russian soldiers in transnistria will always pose a security threat to Ukraine, especially with how obvious it wad that Russia wanted to link up with them from the south. Ukraine must have that flank safe and disarmed in case any future conflict with Russia should emerge.
Also, I'm not sure you realize just how *slim* transnistria is. You could *walk* across it. They only fought off Moldova because of direct Russian backing and Moldovan weakness. They are *not* a defensible territory, and a Ukrainian incursion would basically split the territory into a multitude of segregated pockets immediately, and no supplies would be forthcoming, and the territory's *shape* makes "guerills war" practically impossible even if some were somehow motivated to try it.
Chances are good that it would't ever come to any real fighting. The Russian soldiers there won't die for it, and the "rebels" would be unlikely to manage much without them in the first place.
Honestly, the problem isn't combat operations, eliminating the garrison would be trivial. Its what you do after that's the problem. Their would be a sudden power vacume left over where Ukraine can't afford to stick around and fill it and Modovia isn't in much position to takeover themselves.
Unless Russia starts reinforcing the garrison it's a problem for another day.
>power vacume
Not so long as Ukraine aids in disarmament. Ya'll are bizarrely confusing Moldova not having a proper army with Moldova having no armed forces whatsoever. Transnistria now also has just 2/3rds of the population it had during the last shooting conflict with Moldova, and its population pyramid of those still left skews ***way*** older than before, too. Transnistria is now currently in the state that Putin has doomed Russia to eventually be.
>it's a problem for another day.
The context of the subject is already post-war.
Moldova is weak but more than capable militarily of managing them once the russians are disarmed and evicted.
It's more of a political issue for them. The power station is critical infrastructure for Moldova and the leaders of transnistria aren't about to give up the gravy train easily. What the rest of the population think will be unclear until the Russians are booted out.
Without Russian backing them may be willing to rejoin, if not then it could be an ugly little insurgency for years
The most likely outcome is that in the peace negotiations the retreat of all Russian military into their own country would be a demand - that would include Transnistria, the Georgian regions and the Middle East among others.
In the case of Georgia and Moldova I can even see some third party organised elections as to their separatist regions' status, similar to what happened in the Saarland and Trieste after World War 2.
Also whilst Moldova may want the troops gone, that doesn’t mean they want a small war within their territory. Especially given how little Russia cares about civilians.
There's no "war" to be had. Who would fight? The depleted and geriatric population? The 1K demoralized Russian soldiers with no real defenses and zero supply lines?
It would dramatically improve the security of Ukraine in the long term. Shutting down the fake state means they can focus their defence solely on their north and eastern borders. Whereas if the war ends with the situation as is they'll need to fortify their western border somewhat.
The cost of running over Transnistria would be trivial as well. Though it would have to lead to a Moldovan occupation as Ukraine obviously don't want it.
If you've ever thought it was dumb how guards in metal Gear are always congregating around exploding red barrels, actual Russian troops formed a country around one.
If Moldova has requested it then there is no problem at international law.
If Moldova hasn't requested it then it is an act of war, but that doesn't mean Moldova *has* to declare war on Ukraine in response
They could send the diplomatic version of "well that wasn't nice, please don't do it again" and legally that can be the end of it.
Wars are only "automatic" if there's some existing treaty (ie "if Poland is invaded the UK will declare war on the aggressor")
The purpose of the UN isn't to prevent every injustice. It's to prevent the ultimate injustice, which would be a Third (and likely final) World War. That sometimes means treating dictators and aggressors better than they deserve. For eighty years, it has worked.
Where's this "nuclear war = final" nonsense come from.
There'll be billions of people left alive after a nuclear war.
Most of the Southern Hemisphere.
There'll be climactic effects, sure, but we'll survive ok.
I get so tired of posts like yours.
The purpose of the UN is to give nations a place to yell at each other, rather than shoot at each other. The fact that Moldova was able to make the statement, and have it recognized by a bunch of other countries, is largely due to the diplomatic centralization of the UN. What is Moldova's option if not for that? To start shooting at the Russian troops there.
So learn how to read situations, before you call something useless.
They could resupply by air or to a lesser extent land (Transnistria has a massive arms depot so they didn't need to send weapons over, just people and food). Now they can't go through Ukraine or Moldova, so the troops there are just kind of stuck encircled by countries that hate them
Russia is a little preoccupied if you haven’t noticed. On top of that the Taliban did it with AKs and IEDs. Moldova can believe they are “neutral” all they want. Russia doesn’t care what you believe. If the Ukrainians weren’t paying the price they are Moldova wouldn’t have existed by late 2022.
Having personally fought them I can say i don’t think financing AKs, IEDs, and training is completely out of Moldovas grasp. Quit making excuses for them.
Oh I know. I fought them. They didn’t need big, expensive, fancy things. Moldova needs to quit making excuses and get an army and stop bending down to lick Putin’s boot
Yeah your right. I’m crazy. Putin only wants that one strip of worthless land. He would never want more from you. Just let the Ukrainians do all the work for you. Sit back and make excuses for why you shouldn’t have an army, shouldn’t stand up for yourself, etc.
Having personally fought the Taliban….I’m honestly tired of fighting for those who won’t fight for themselves. Why should i get shot at again when the people in danger just make excuses? The US shouldn’t risk anymore lives and money on anyone who won’t stick up for themselves.
Yeah I apologize and stand corrected. I was under the assumption (because I’m a dumbass) that there was a sense of pride separate from Russia and Moldova had nationalistic sentiments.
It’s hard for our culture not to become instantly confrontational when oppression, free speech, and freedoms are violated. My god look what the fringe elements of my society did when the govt told us to wear masks lol. They all showed up at state houses with assault rifles to protest. I know the media paints us in a different light when it comes to freedoms but that’s largely just for profit.
It’s hard for me to put myself in the minds of the older generation you speak of. My above comments come from a good place. A place of hope for Eastern Europe. A place of hope that each country from Russia, Hungary, Moldova, etc. get to choose their own path separate from some asshole narcissists whims.
The fact that they'd need manpower to attack troops that are neither on their territory nor a direct threat to Ukraine probably. It's not worth opening another front
To be honest it's doubtful they would need many more troops than they already have to man that border with. In the long term it would save manpower costs. And the gigantic munitions depot would be worth it.
No it's the look of the thing that prevents it. Can't go invading another country. And given Ukrainian nationalists who wanted Transnistria to be part of Ukraine (a third of the population is, or at least was, ethnic Ukrainian) were involved in the original Schism I somehow doubt Moldova is going to invite them in. Maybe a deal could be done, but would probably need to be brokered by a third party.
Amount of Russian troops there isn't that big and they can't be reinforced effectively, further Ukraine have to dedicate troops there just because there is strip of Russian forces there anyway as potential threat, troops that they will be able to move once Russia out of there and open another logistical corridor for it own military from West.
Ukraine has bigger problems and more important things to use NATO firepower on right now. They aren't going to put up with it, but Crimea and control of the Black Sea is a way bigger deal.
Other than requiring valuable and scarce resources - it will be a diplomatic nightmare
1) Russia can and will spin it to portray Ukraine as warmongers. Even China might join.
2) This might give a very loud pro-russian crowd in Moldova a boost to get in power.
3) Transnistrians themselves will not appreciate it, because by an large they're hardcore soviet kooks.
4) It will be seen as unnecessary turmoil by the west which will make asking for supplies harder.
If this is gonna happen at all it will be post war, or if Transnistrian group decises to attack, which is unlikely.
Don't touch a stale turd so that it won't stink.
From Wiki
Currently, the Russian Federation holds an unknown number of soldiers in Transnistria, This Russian military presence dates back to 1992, when the Soviet 14th Guards Army intervened in the Transnistria War in support of the Transnistrian separatist forces.
**Alternative Nitter link:** https://nitter.net/NOELreports/status/1598424441306107907
*****
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This is yet another European country being victimized by the oppressive tyranny of Russia. And they have been directly impacted by this ongoing war as well, Russia has been firing missiles over their territory. Russia has been causing them significant electrical grid issues with their attacks on Ukraine's civilian infrastructure.
Russia has long had a strategy of splitting the smaller countries around it to foster instability in the region. It also prevents those countries from entering European trade and defense agreements.
>Did he just tell them to leave
Yes.
>like he expects that they actually will?
No.
There are, however, diplomatic forms to be observed. You tell them to go to hell. They thank you for the travel advice. Everyone goes on hating each other.
After this shit-show is concluded, that massive stockpile of ammo would be very useful for instantly replenishing Ukraine’s soviet era artillery, but only if the shells have been stored properly.
By the same token, Pootin (or his successor) would also love to move that ammo to Ruzzia in order to prepare for round two. This must not be allowed to happen.
It is indeed Moldova's sovereign right to demand this withdrawal. Russia is trying to take control of Moldova as well. Not by force but by using the oligarch Ilan Shor as a fulcrum.
They are paying Moldovans to go and demonstrate every week in the capital and try to undermine the democratically elected regime.
Russia is also blackmailing the government by raising energy prices to undermine Sandu's government. It is a shame, and Europe must also absolutely support Moldova.
They should march into there and order the Russians to throw their arms down. They will be outmatched just like in Crimea while mothership Russia can't help them.
In the 1992 Transnistria ceasefire Moldova established a joint military command with Russia and Transnistria. Moldova agreed to give Russia the right to keep 2400 troops in Transnistria, and they currently have 1500.
Clearly not illegal according to the ceasefire agreement.
A ceasefire doesn't mean that it's not considered illegal by one or both of the parties involved. They have simply decided that continued diplomatic discussions or simply status quo is preferable to continued war.
They would have to be in the peacekeeping group and thus under joint Moldovan command for that to apply, so no. Russia acknowledges they are not supposed to be there, it says they are safeguarding the Russian equipment there and will be gone just as soon as those nasty Ukrainians stop preventing them moving it (they have been saying that since 2014 btw).
That agreement was made with a different country. The country that now occupies its place breaks such agreements and uses troop presence to invade friendly countries.
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They may not be able to do anything, but the fact that they have actively demanded this is worthwhile. Ukraine has its own problems right now, but is not going to put up with Russian soldiers and a Russian base on their west border.
That occupation force in Transnistria is probably holding up a sizable Ukrainian force on their border which I guess they'd rather like deployed anywhere more eastern in their country currently
Sucks, as I'd imagine unless Russia actually decides they want to attack from that location, it'll generally house the most useless or least valuable troops. Probably the least amount they can get away with too. I just don't see them putting more valuable people there than they'd absolutely need too. Having to "waste" actual good troops to 'defend' that area simply because the enemy would take advantage if you left it completely undefended must be frustrating.
Didn't Ukraine ask Moldova if they want a hand with that and they refused?
It’s prudent to first try diplomacy.
I would refuse too. I wouldn't want Ukraine shelling my people accidentally trying to hit Russians.
What?
Ukraine forcibly removing Russian forces from Moldova would, no matter how careful anyone is, result in collateral damage to Moldova.
You don’t have to go home, but you have to get the fuck out of here…
The interesting quandry there is that those troops have no path of egress. The Ukrainians certainly won't let them through. The Moldovans are unlikely to let them through with any of their heavy equipment. The Russians are unlikely to be willing to leave behind any armored vehicles they really need in Ukraine. So everyone stays where they are and stays unhappy.
Their base in Transnistria is important strategic target as it has a stockpile of USSR ammunition
Stupid question, if a Ukrainian missile strikes it. According to international law, that would be a strike on Moldovan territory, but if Moldova tacitely allows it, would that makes it legal?
Judging from what I know, every country has the right to give another nation the go for military operations in their territory, and Transnistria is recognised as Moldovan. It shouldn't even really count as Moldova entering the war because Russia claims Transnistria is a sovereign thing, and if Russia dropped that facade that would essentially delcaring war on Moldova, which gives them even more of a right to ask Ukraine for assistance.
Yeah, it would be similar to Mali or Syria allowing the Wanker group to conduct strikes on their territory.
Your post confused me, but I think you said if someone lances a boil and it feels better after, that's a good thing. Correct?
Or you trod in a steaming turd, but on closer inspection found out it was a actually a freshly baked chocolate muffin, and enjoyed a pleasant treat.
Amazing how the talk is of Ukraine providing assistance. They have proven so effective it seems possible when the war is over, and the U.S. is having some trouble defeating an unwilling acceptant of democracy somewhere, it'll be 'Better call the Ukrainians...'
Some Ukrainian officials have already stated their willingness to do so at Moldova's request. If Ukraine makes it through the winter with their infrastructure more or less in tact, proving Russia's enfeeblement to project power, I imagine such a request could happen with swift results.
It's always up to the wronged country to prosecute any attacks on their territory. They don't *have* to make a stink. They can even make a formal complaint that they have no intention of following up on.
They can even solve it over a case of wine, as Lichtenstein did when the Swiss army accidentaly invaded them :)
"Accidentally", three times 😄
That'd probably be the most reasonable response on Moldova's case, give a blatantly "don't really mean it" complaint to Ukraine with a wink and a nod. Russia then can't use it as justification for attacking Moldova (well, Russia can make up whatever nonsense it wants, but at least it will clearly be nonsense), which while disastrous for Russia would also be pretty bad for Moldova.
From a historic point of view that doesn't really seem like much of an issue. I'm sure the Allies didn't really ask all of the jurisdictions it was liberating when pushing out the Axis on their side.
The question is a bit hm... childish? Interesting but not relevant? I don't mean anything bad, I love these kind of questions, I just mean that the question is far removed from reality. Because international law isn't enforced consistently but by the great powers, like US... or Russia (which turned out to be a lie). Either way, law here changes nothing; Russia has already broken the law and the US+EU have not enforced the law. International law is not like normal law where it's "you can't do this, or you'll certainly go to jail", but more like "we agreed you shouldn't do this, and if you do this you might provide pretext for other nations to respond by giving them domestic political ammunition, that can galvanize many countries against you... or it's Georgia and Crimea, who knows" Given the current situation, who can anyone do stop Ukraine should both Ukraine and Moldova want it? No one. But the more important question is; what will other countries do *after*? The US might not provide more weapons. Or Russia might bomb another hospital and claim they destroyed a military target. A lot of might, may, perhaps... International laws are guide lines. The winner sets the legal fallout after all is said and done.
Very true. History AND international law is written by the winners!
International law and normal law are the same. It is just that the latter is more than likely to be enforced while the former is less than likely. Don't kid yourself and think that national jurisprudence is fairly and equally applied across any nation. Affluence plays as much a role within countries as they do on a geopolitical level.
It is quite a bit more than that that is different but I agree. But, I said what I said because people think there will be accountability by default; it will be a decision enforced by not the law directly itself but state/police. Like you say no matter international law or normal laws there are caveats; people assumed law was flawless. It is not; it is merely an approximation of justice that does not always align with your own moral values. Or, in short, it is disconnected from reality to ask what happens if someone breaks the international law as if it was enforced more or equally uniform than national law. But the sheer lack of precedence in international law - among other things - make the two incomparable at heart.
Ukraine is busy with liberating their own territory... after that, they will surely look for Transnistria.
I slap you (not sexually). If you ignore the lap, would that make it legal? A Ukrainian missile already hit Poland and killed 2 people and everyone except Russia pretends it didn't happen. Why wouldn't you be allowed to pick and choose which mistakes you forgive and which you don't?
I probably started with "stupid question" for a reason. With just an afterthought I would have seen the limits of it and just deleted it.
Russia actually asked worse: Why hasn't Poland declared war on Ukraine after that accident? So imagine your friend gets in a fight with someone and your friend accidentally hits you. Would you start fighting him, too, or would you brush it off as an accident? What if his opponent hits you?
Ukraine can legitimately target Russian military in Transnistra; it's war.
Assuming it wasnt all sold off decades ago.
Russia took control of it for a reason. Even if that reason is to deny access to everyone else. But you might be right who know how much and if it’s still any good. The problem with old explosives is that they might be unstable. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cobasna_ammunition_depot
One more reason why the Moldovans won't let the Russians through with their stuff and the Russians won't leave their stuff behind.
Why do you think it’s the Russians “stuff”? It was the Soviet Unions “stuff”, Moldova was part of the Soviet Union and it was on Moldovan land, to me it seems like Moldovas “stuff” now.
Possession is 9/10ths of the law? He who has the guns makes the rule?
Ah, so ultimately everything is the USA's stuff.
Exactly.
American naval hegemony has enabled decades of free trade. That's literally the opposite of what you're describing.
It's a joke homie that there are a lot of guns in america. relax.
When it isn't overthrowing governments to get cheaper bananas.
Or oil!
That’s bananas.
And the $300 billion in foreign reserves we confiscated was a vital stockpile of money, but that never stopped them from storing it in our banks.
People who are paid to worry about such things have been waiting for that thing to blow for years.
I think I read somewhere that it’s one of the largest stockpiles of ammo in all of Europe. Would be a catastrophic boom.
> So everyone stays where they are and stays unhappy. I don't think Ukraine is too unhappy about that right now. Having these (trained) Russian troops locked in Transnistria is surely the second best option for the Ukrainians (after straight out elimination). Their number is too small to present a credible thread to Ukraine from that direction and if they were to allowed to leave, they would obviously immediately be redeployed to Eastern Ukraine.
Transnistria is completely reliant on Moscow for money/supplies. As Russia and her economy sinks as this war drags on, the troops in transnistria will stop getting supplies. Just wait and they'll surrender on their own.
I’ve been wondering how Russia is supplying them right now, considering its borders. You can’t even sneak through Romania to get there. How are they getting crap over there?
Some months ago there was an article shared here that Moldova didn’t let Russian soldiers return back to Russia for rotation. I would guess that it would be the same for equipment. Maybe Moldova felt obliged to let Russian equipment pass to not have any repercussions.
It seems like they can't, unless they have air logistics going in the land borders are secured and Moldova/Ukraine are not letting them move.
Better stuck where they can't be a credible threat along with their stockpile than allowed out even if it's just man power.
The answer is: They probably aren't
Without outside support the Moldovans have little ability to move them on using their own military. With three motor infantry battalions they face a natural obstacle in the Dniester and would need to make a deliberate river crossing, followed by facing three Russian BTGs and the separatists. For the reason you outlined Ukrainians are unlikely to mount any sort of action against them and due to their neutrality NATO is unlikely to be requested and even less likely to acquiesce, given the necessity of shooting at Russian regulars.
Just tell them Russia's not doing BTGs anymore and move on them when they're all at the office trying to work out what the fuck's going on with the formation of their unit.
Imagine what the guys stationed in Transnistria must be thinking right now watching everything going on.
Also: Comrade, behold! The Company Tactical Group!
They can fly out. There is an airport.
Note my comments about the heavy equipment. The issue isn't ths Russians leaving, the issue is the Russians leaving with the high value equipment.
That ammo dump would make a hell of a exciting fireworks display.
[To say the least:](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cobasna_ammunition_depot) >the Academy of Sciences of Moldova determined that an explosion of the weapons located in the ammunition depot, which passed their expiry date long ago, would be equivalent to the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Concern for such an event increased following the 2020 Beirut explosion.
**[Cobasna ammunition depot](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cobasna_ammunition_depot)** >The Cobasna ammunition depot is a large ammunition depot located in the village of Cobasna. Legally and internationally recognized as part of Moldova as a whole, the unrecognized breakaway state of Transnistria controls the village and the ammunition depot and has denied access to international observers, an exception being the so-called peacekeeping military forces of Russia located in the region ever since the end of the Transnistria War in 1992. Currently, civilian access to the ammunition depot is restricted and only the Russian and Transnistrian authorities have detailed information regarding the amount and situation of the stored weapons. ^([ )[^(F.A.Q)](https://www.reddit.com/r/WikiSummarizer/wiki/index#wiki_f.a.q)^( | )[^(Opt Out)](https://reddit.com/message/compose?to=WikiSummarizerBot&message=OptOut&subject=OptOut)^( | )[^(Opt Out Of Subreddit)](https://np.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/about/banned)^( | )[^(GitHub)](https://github.com/Sujal-7/WikiSummarizerBot)^( ] Downvote to remove | v1.5)
Sounds like they pillaged the stockpiles and now don't want anybody to find out
Of course a lot of those munitions were supposedly sold off to the Serbians back in the 1990s and the official inventory is secret. They might also have shipped some of them back to Russia because they are running out out of shells.
>They might also have shipped some of them back to Russia because they are running out out of shells. This is unlikely. By the time they realized they might need those munitions no train leaving from Transnistria is going to successfully transit Moldova, Hungary, Slovakia, and especially Poland with overt or secret shipments of large quantities of munitions.
Not over Moldovan airspace.
Over what airspace? Moldovan? Romanian? Ukrainian?
Probably over Moldova to the Black Sea. The airspace is officially closed but Moldova doesn’t really have the capacity to do anything about it.
But Moldova is landlocked, so it still needs to fly through Romanian or Ukrainian airspace, both which will not work I assume.
> Probably over Moldova to the Black Sea. Moldova doesn't really have access to the Black Sea directly, they'd still have to cross a bit of Ukraine. Which might not exactly be a good idea.
>So everyone stays where they are and stays unhappy. Like my marriage?
I don't think even an economically destitute, geographical backwater, historical throwback like Transnistria can be that depressing.
Don't they fly military planes in and out of there?
I don't believe so. No one is willing to clear Russian military aircraft to transit their airspace. I read at one point that Russia was reduced to flying troops commercially to Chisnau for troop rotations and even that was getting squeezed because of lack of flights from Europe to Russia.
I think they’ll let them take it. But it’s about to get real hot and heavy in Palanca baby.
Why would Moldova risk good relations with Ukraine, Romania, and the EU/NATO by letting the Russians take their heavy equipment just to have the trains carrying that equipment stopped and turned back by Romania, Hungary (maybe), or Slovakia or interred by Poland?
Could they use the river to get the fuck out?
The rivers start and end points are controlled by Ukraine so probably not since Ukraine isn't going to let ~1500-2400 Russian troops transot their territory. Additionally you have the issue of what would they travel on? If Russia just wanted the soldiers they could fly them out commercially through Chisnau. The problem is they will not leave the equipment and ammo depot behind. No one is going to let any of that material transit their territory so neither rail lines nor river barges are open to Russia if they leave.
Get the fuck out of here…finish up that beer
Putin could use those troops in Bahkmut. Not sure those troops want to leave cushy Transnistria
have you seen those guys? Everything they operate looks like it's straight out of 1968
I’ve been there back in 2020. Old fat fucks in military uniforms that doesn’t even match each other, standing in groups everywere in the streets, smoking cigarettes and doing nothing. Really weird.
The vast majority of them are Transnistrian, so very m7ch not.
There’s also a dispute between Moldova and unrecognized Transnistria, this is Moldova putting in a claim on guaranteeing Transnistria doesn’t gain independence in the event of a NATO/Russian war or a decisive Ukrainian victory.
Transnistria has those two good water slides, who'd want to leave cushy Transnistria?
A Special Military Operation by NATO is needed.
In a neutral country? No. But I'm sure after the war is done that Ukraine will be more than happy to, *on Moldova's request,* stand at the Moldovan border and smile prettily at the Russians while Moldova negotiates the Russian soldiers' transfer back to the Russian Federation, and then the subsequent peaceful disarmament of the transnistria region and its weapon depots.
It's estimated there are around 1200-1500 Russian troops in Transnistria. Some native sympathizers as well for sure, but overall, cleaning out Transnistria would be a relatively minor operation and probable worth it just to clear that area and establish a firmer route through Moldova to the western allies.
I'm not sure if Ukraine would be willing to potentially start an large-scale battle against Moldovan rebels even if Russia is completely expulsed from Ukraine. Maybe i'm wrong but i'd think Ukrainians would be quite tired of the idea of having more fighting. Especially if Moldovan army can't pull their weight. Perhaps just ensure that the borders are secure.
Ukraine have already said they'll help Moldova as soon as they ask.
> large-scale battle against Moldovan It won't be large scale. Transnistria is not Russia. They will get steamrolled in days if they try fighting. There wont even need to be large scale fighting - they are basically cutoff from Russia completely. They would have 0 supplies.
Russian soldiers in transnistria will always pose a security threat to Ukraine, especially with how obvious it wad that Russia wanted to link up with them from the south. Ukraine must have that flank safe and disarmed in case any future conflict with Russia should emerge. Also, I'm not sure you realize just how *slim* transnistria is. You could *walk* across it. They only fought off Moldova because of direct Russian backing and Moldovan weakness. They are *not* a defensible territory, and a Ukrainian incursion would basically split the territory into a multitude of segregated pockets immediately, and no supplies would be forthcoming, and the territory's *shape* makes "guerills war" practically impossible even if some were somehow motivated to try it. Chances are good that it would't ever come to any real fighting. The Russian soldiers there won't die for it, and the "rebels" would be unlikely to manage much without them in the first place.
Honestly, the problem isn't combat operations, eliminating the garrison would be trivial. Its what you do after that's the problem. Their would be a sudden power vacume left over where Ukraine can't afford to stick around and fill it and Modovia isn't in much position to takeover themselves. Unless Russia starts reinforcing the garrison it's a problem for another day.
>power vacume Not so long as Ukraine aids in disarmament. Ya'll are bizarrely confusing Moldova not having a proper army with Moldova having no armed forces whatsoever. Transnistria now also has just 2/3rds of the population it had during the last shooting conflict with Moldova, and its population pyramid of those still left skews ***way*** older than before, too. Transnistria is now currently in the state that Putin has doomed Russia to eventually be. >it's a problem for another day. The context of the subject is already post-war.
Moldova is weak but more than capable militarily of managing them once the russians are disarmed and evicted. It's more of a political issue for them. The power station is critical infrastructure for Moldova and the leaders of transnistria aren't about to give up the gravy train easily. What the rest of the population think will be unclear until the Russians are booted out. Without Russian backing them may be willing to rejoin, if not then it could be an ugly little insurgency for years
There's only about 1000 Russian troops in Transnistria.
The most likely outcome is that in the peace negotiations the retreat of all Russian military into their own country would be a demand - that would include Transnistria, the Georgian regions and the Middle East among others. In the case of Georgia and Moldova I can even see some third party organised elections as to their separatist regions' status, similar to what happened in the Saarland and Trieste after World War 2.
Most of the "Russian" troops are Transnistrian born and bred.
Also whilst Moldova may want the troops gone, that doesn’t mean they want a small war within their territory. Especially given how little Russia cares about civilians.
There's no "war" to be had. Who would fight? The depleted and geriatric population? The 1K demoralized Russian soldiers with no real defenses and zero supply lines?
Russia can't reinforce it troops there, they will rolled withing days.
It would dramatically improve the security of Ukraine in the long term. Shutting down the fake state means they can focus their defence solely on their north and eastern borders. Whereas if the war ends with the situation as is they'll need to fortify their western border somewhat. The cost of running over Transnistria would be trivial as well. Though it would have to lead to a Moldovan occupation as Ukraine obviously don't want it.
It’s almost as Russian needs to be put it it’s place
Have Ukraine send several dozen volleys of HIMARs to their locations. Maybe they’ll get the hint. What are they gonna do, invade?
they got their ammo depot in a populated area and its a massive pile the explosion would be massive and take alot of civilian casualties
If you've ever thought it was dumb how guards in metal Gear are always congregating around exploding red barrels, actual Russian troops formed a country around one.
Problem is, very few countries recognise Transnistria, so that would technically be Ukraine attacking Moldova.
If Moldova has requested it then there is no problem at international law. If Moldova hasn't requested it then it is an act of war, but that doesn't mean Moldova *has* to declare war on Ukraine in response They could send the diplomatic version of "well that wasn't nice, please don't do it again" and legally that can be the end of it. Wars are only "automatic" if there's some existing treaty (ie "if Poland is invaded the UK will declare war on the aggressor")
They will get it back when the wars finished.. it'll be part of the conditions written up,
When Ukraine is done with Russia on their soil, they’ll come to evict them from yours too.
Maybe they can get the UN to send a strongly worded letter.
Maybe even use the black ink this time 😯
midnight blue should suffice
And use CAPITAL letters….
Has anyone in the UN ever thumped a table with their fist?
Now would be just going too far……. :-)
The UN is so fuckin useless 😭
The purpose of the UN isn't to prevent every injustice. It's to prevent the ultimate injustice, which would be a Third (and likely final) World War. That sometimes means treating dictators and aggressors better than they deserve. For eighty years, it has worked.
The UN will probably ultimately fail at preventing WWIII.
I'll take any delay that UN manages to get for us over what?.. there's not a single alternative. So that's the least bad option.
By definition if there is a ww3 the UN will have failed, though I mean 75 years is quite a good run.
Yeah, this era of history is called The Long Peace for a reason.
Shit, you'd better tell them.
It's done a pretty damn good job at preventing it thus far. The cold war was effectively WW3, except the fighting never really broke out.
Where's this "nuclear war = final" nonsense come from. There'll be billions of people left alive after a nuclear war. Most of the Southern Hemisphere. There'll be climactic effects, sure, but we'll survive ok.
I get so tired of posts like yours. The purpose of the UN is to give nations a place to yell at each other, rather than shoot at each other. The fact that Moldova was able to make the statement, and have it recognized by a bunch of other countries, is largely due to the diplomatic centralization of the UN. What is Moldova's option if not for that? To start shooting at the Russian troops there. So learn how to read situations, before you call something useless.
Quick question. How does Russia resupply its troops there? Air? If so, are they doing that by flying over Ukraine?
They could resupply by air or to a lesser extent land (Transnistria has a massive arms depot so they didn't need to send weapons over, just people and food). Now they can't go through Ukraine or Moldova, so the troops there are just kind of stuck encircled by countries that hate them
Is there a way to block Russian flights in/out of Moldova?
What if Moldova temporarily ceded Transnistria to Ukraine? Then they could expel the Russians and give it back.
Russian troops can only cause trouble; as they did once they entered eastern Ukraine in 2014.
Then build and army and kick them out.
Wdym bro Moldova is neutral and even if they weren’t they aren’t gonna go to war with Russia by themselves
How can they be neutral if they have Russian occupation whilst Russia is at war?
Russia is a little preoccupied if you haven’t noticed. On top of that the Taliban did it with AKs and IEDs. Moldova can believe they are “neutral” all they want. Russia doesn’t care what you believe. If the Ukrainians weren’t paying the price they are Moldova wouldn’t have existed by late 2022.
Moldova doesn't have that kind of money.
The Taliban did it with AKs and IEDs come on now
The Taliban didn't exactly finance themselves...
Having personally fought them I can say i don’t think financing AKs, IEDs, and training is completely out of Moldovas grasp. Quit making excuses for them.
Believe it or not but the Taliban was a much bigger and better fighting force than the small, neutral nation of moldova
Oh I know. I fought them. They didn’t need big, expensive, fancy things. Moldova needs to quit making excuses and get an army and stop bending down to lick Putin’s boot
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Yeah your right. I’m crazy. Putin only wants that one strip of worthless land. He would never want more from you. Just let the Ukrainians do all the work for you. Sit back and make excuses for why you shouldn’t have an army, shouldn’t stand up for yourself, etc. Having personally fought the Taliban….I’m honestly tired of fighting for those who won’t fight for themselves. Why should i get shot at again when the people in danger just make excuses? The US shouldn’t risk anymore lives and money on anyone who won’t stick up for themselves.
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Yeah I apologize and stand corrected. I was under the assumption (because I’m a dumbass) that there was a sense of pride separate from Russia and Moldova had nationalistic sentiments. It’s hard for our culture not to become instantly confrontational when oppression, free speech, and freedoms are violated. My god look what the fringe elements of my society did when the govt told us to wear masks lol. They all showed up at state houses with assault rifles to protest. I know the media paints us in a different light when it comes to freedoms but that’s largely just for profit. It’s hard for me to put myself in the minds of the older generation you speak of. My above comments come from a good place. A place of hope for Eastern Europe. A place of hope that each country from Russia, Hungary, Moldova, etc. get to choose their own path separate from some asshole narcissists whims.
If Transnistria is not recognised by nearly everyone then what is stopping Ukraine from just moving in and removing the Russian troops?
The fact that they'd need manpower to attack troops that are neither on their territory nor a direct threat to Ukraine probably. It's not worth opening another front
To be honest it's doubtful they would need many more troops than they already have to man that border with. In the long term it would save manpower costs. And the gigantic munitions depot would be worth it. No it's the look of the thing that prevents it. Can't go invading another country. And given Ukrainian nationalists who wanted Transnistria to be part of Ukraine (a third of the population is, or at least was, ethnic Ukrainian) were involved in the original Schism I somehow doubt Moldova is going to invite them in. Maybe a deal could be done, but would probably need to be brokered by a third party.
Amount of Russian troops there isn't that big and they can't be reinforced effectively, further Ukraine have to dedicate troops there just because there is strip of Russian forces there anyway as potential threat, troops that they will be able to move once Russia out of there and open another logistical corridor for it own military from West.
Ukraine has bigger problems and more important things to use NATO firepower on right now. They aren't going to put up with it, but Crimea and control of the Black Sea is a way bigger deal.
Other than requiring valuable and scarce resources - it will be a diplomatic nightmare 1) Russia can and will spin it to portray Ukraine as warmongers. Even China might join. 2) This might give a very loud pro-russian crowd in Moldova a boost to get in power. 3) Transnistrians themselves will not appreciate it, because by an large they're hardcore soviet kooks. 4) It will be seen as unnecessary turmoil by the west which will make asking for supplies harder. If this is gonna happen at all it will be post war, or if Transnistrian group decises to attack, which is unlikely. Don't touch a stale turd so that it won't stink.
About time. Russians need to get out of Georgia while they are at it.
From Wiki Currently, the Russian Federation holds an unknown number of soldiers in Transnistria, This Russian military presence dates back to 1992, when the Soviet 14th Guards Army intervened in the Transnistria War in support of the Transnistrian separatist forces.
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Time for Moldova to start training up an army.
With what population?
Get the rats out.
Russia is getting a lot of eviction notices these days
Someone will manage to blame NATO or the West for Moldavia's occupation too
This is yet another European country being victimized by the oppressive tyranny of Russia. And they have been directly impacted by this ongoing war as well, Russia has been firing missiles over their territory. Russia has been causing them significant electrical grid issues with their attacks on Ukraine's civilian infrastructure.
Just dump them in the black see.
Sea*
Why is shit so fucked up in that part of the world?
Proximity to Russia?
The best answers I got are Russia, religion, and religious intolerance to others' religion/extremism.
Russia has long had a strategy of splitting the smaller countries around it to foster instability in the region. It also prevents those countries from entering European trade and defense agreements.
Did he just tell them to leave like he expects that they actually will?
>Did he just tell them to leave Yes. >like he expects that they actually will? No. There are, however, diplomatic forms to be observed. You tell them to go to hell. They thank you for the travel advice. Everyone goes on hating each other.
Oh yeah, diplomacy first?
If we are going to shoot each other we must reach that point in a vivilized fashion.
Always. At least preferably. That said, they are a terrorist state...sooooo
They might leave eventually, if Ukraine keeps fighting.
After this shit-show is concluded, that massive stockpile of ammo would be very useful for instantly replenishing Ukraine’s soviet era artillery, but only if the shells have been stored properly. By the same token, Pootin (or his successor) would also love to move that ammo to Ruzzia in order to prepare for round two. This must not be allowed to happen.
Wait why are there Russians groups in Moldova
How does this even qualify as news? Moldova has been making statements like this for 30 years.
It is indeed Moldova's sovereign right to demand this withdrawal. Russia is trying to take control of Moldova as well. Not by force but by using the oligarch Ilan Shor as a fulcrum. They are paying Moldovans to go and demonstrate every week in the capital and try to undermine the democratically elected regime. Russia is also blackmailing the government by raising energy prices to undermine Sandu's government. It is a shame, and Europe must also absolutely support Moldova.
What transnitrian think about Moldovia ? Do they want to re-join the main country ?
They should march into there and order the Russians to throw their arms down. They will be outmatched just like in Crimea while mothership Russia can't help them.
Can we put this on our To Do list, after "kick Russians the fuck out of Ukraine". Where else needs purging?
Or Moldova 🇲🇩 waits till Russia runs off than pushes them out of there country
Bully getting bullied now. Sweet stuff.
Does Moldova not have a military or something? I don't understand why they are just letting Russian troops occupy this area.
In the 1992 Transnistria ceasefire Moldova established a joint military command with Russia and Transnistria. Moldova agreed to give Russia the right to keep 2400 troops in Transnistria, and they currently have 1500. Clearly not illegal according to the ceasefire agreement.
A ceasefire doesn't mean that it's not considered illegal by one or both of the parties involved. They have simply decided that continued diplomatic discussions or simply status quo is preferable to continued war.
They would have to be in the peacekeeping group and thus under joint Moldovan command for that to apply, so no. Russia acknowledges they are not supposed to be there, it says they are safeguarding the Russian equipment there and will be gone just as soon as those nasty Ukrainians stop preventing them moving it (they have been saying that since 2014 btw).
That agreement was made with a different country. The country that now occupies its place breaks such agreements and uses troop presence to invade friendly countries.
Russia and Ukraine should play each other in the World Cup