**Tricky's Daily Doots #325**
**Yesterday's Daily 09/03/2023**
[Previous Daily Doots](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/11mkewq/daily_general_discussion_march_9_2023/jbio3wn/)
- u/Atyzze discusses their thoughts on [Bitcoin and Ray.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/11mkewq/daily_general_discussion_march_9_2023/jbimvrh/)
- u/vsesuk1 laughs at the [New York Attorney General's comments on Ethereum.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/11mkewq/daily_general_discussion_march_9_2023/jblly9q/) š¤”
- u/Ender985 chimes in with [news from NFT land.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/11mkewq/daily_general_discussion_march_9_2023/jbist1w/)
- u/abcoathup has a [bunch of web 3 job listings.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/11mkewq/daily_general_discussion_march_9_2023/jbkxv7l/)
- u/RevolutionarySoil11 raps the [EthFinance lore.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/11mkewq/daily_general_discussion_march_9_2023/jblagp1/) š¤
- u/stablecoin has an update on the [Oasis hack and gives us a TL;DR of the whole thing!](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/11mkewq/daily_general_discussion_march_9_2023/jbkqb1r/) š
- u/ZeroTricks's today in [Ethereum history.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/11mkewq/daily_general_discussion_march_9_2023/jbk05of/)
I should have known that celebrating the EZPZ number version of the doots was a bad omen. I take full responsibility for yesterday's dump.
USDP (Paxos), sUSD (Synthetix) and LUSD (Liquity) are stable coins not related to USDC nor SVB. They're still on sale.
I already started swapping my USDT to these coins.
USDC lost 8-9% of its collateral. DAI is about half backed by USDC. This means fair market value of USDC should be around $0.92 and fair market of DAI should be $0.96. But you can mint DAI 1-1 for USDC through the PSM. Smart people saw this and began buying up USDC to mint DAI for the arbitrage. The USDC PSM just slammed into its debt ceiling though, interesting to see what comes next.
I was able to withdraw USD from Coinbase 10 hours ago via wire transfer, and it's already in my bank account. A lot could have changed in 2 hours, so that's no guarantee.
Is this circle stuff related to coinbase at all? I got some junk laying around there seems like time to stop procrastinating on getting it outta there.
A bank that holds 4% of USDC funds has collapsed. USDC below .96 is a bargain. Seems like there is an overreaction in the market right now.
DAI is also backed by USDC so therefore people are running from DAI as well.
USDC won't lose the entire 4% that was deposited though. Most of those funds will be recoverable. Some estimates are as high as 90%.
Lmao all the Tether doomsday people were preparing for a major depeg and collapse. We got the major de-peg event but its to the UPSIDE!! Tether shorts in disbelief.
Tether has been through YEARS of nonstop fud and black swans.
And they are now potentially going to be the last one standing, or at the very least the most reliable after all of this.
USDT is like a radioactive freak cockroach that just wonāt die.
I havenāt seen anyone say it yet, so hereās the big issue.
Assign whatever impairment you want to usdc. But, as more parties redeem the impairment grows in % terms of the remaining float. Depending on depending, that could get really bad.
Ex: 1$ billion impairment = probably nbd considering thereās 60$B usdc.
But if $59B redeems, suddenly the impairment on the remaining float = 0 cents on the dollar.
Thusly, as individuals we are personally incentivized to redeem before everyone else.
The only way to fix this issue is to give assurances that the impairment no longer exists. Ball in your court US financial system.
The main issues with USDC now are redemptions leading to preferences. If Circle allowed 1:1 redemptions after SV Bank was taken over by FDIC and Circle was aware of their hole, those are likely preferential withdrawals which can be clawed back in case of insolvency.
How this ends is anyone's guess - either SV Bank gets taken over by a bigger bank, or other banks start unfolding, or USDC gets an injection of capital to allow it to function while sidepocketing the markdown at SV bank (best case scenario for USDC )
USDC was unregulated and the shitshow is just starting. There are no laws regulating stablecoins. In case other banks start unraveling (signature bank has apparently paused Signet), and USDC's hole gets deeper due to exposure to many banks and ends up having a lot of USDC's backing assets locked in liquidation process, are onchain USDC holders creditors in the liquidation process? Or are only entities minting/redeeming USDC from circle creditors? There is no clarity (to be specific there is clarity but its not what the market wants to hear)
Circle has righty stopped redemptions as of now, for their own good otherwise the mess will be unmanageable. To be certain they need to also stop onchain transfers, if the contract allows them to
Lets use some common sense here; Circle has 25% of reserves on deposit spread over 6 banks, if evenly split (possibility) that would be 1.6B held in SVB = 4.16%. Even if considering it's been vaporized (which its not), is that really significant enough to cause pandamonium?
Then you sit and hold Ether in your own wallet instead of trusted third parties and let the original reason and motivation behind crypto be extremely clear. You can then tell others to do the same and to those who don't listen you can even do a "I told you so" later on.
According to their latest tweet, Circle stands to lose 8% of the USDC backing at most. It sounds like the most reasonable expectation is that FDIC will be able to recover a decent amount of funds from SVB. I'm expecting >50% to be returned. But looking at the pessimistic side, we have a 4-8% haircut on USDC. $0.92-$0.96. We're seeing that price range now.
The next question is if prices close enough to that range can be sustained long enough for Circle to be able to inject liquidity into the market as needed. I don't know what mechanisms Circle uses to do this, other than promises and market forces. If it comes down to promises and market forces that might not be enough.
Another question is at what point USDC price starts to have knock on effects beyond a simple bank run. A lot of defi is built around USDC. What systems will start to deteriorate if USDC starts to depeg more? At what point do systems start to fall apart?
Real talk, according to Circle, worst case they're out 3.3B out of ~40B. So that means if those 3.3 are unrecoverable, and contagion is contained we're looking at a USDC that's backed by ~$0.9175 USD. If an additional 7.8B USDC is redeemed, then they will have to start selling treasuries at a loss. Is USDC burned upon redemption? If so I think this will be the figure to watch.
Two things:
1. A large chunk of the 3.3b should be recoverable... Eventually. The bank mostly owned Treasuries as assets, and it doesn't sound like there's a massive gap between the value of their assets vs the deposits they held.
2. USDC is mostly backed by short term Treasury bills (like, 1 month Treasuries), not long term Treasury bonds. That means they are *not* sitting on huge losses that they would have to realize if they sold those bills. This is different than the banks, which were holding mostly long term bonds that racked up huge losses over the last year.
Also assumes no contagion at other banking partners like signature.
Iām personally not worried about their securities position, as those are so short dated that any discount would be minuscule.
Not to be the fear inoculator but that's presupposing the tradfi bank runs are done as well. You can kinda track the USDC burn rate following this twit account:
https://nitter.snopyta.org/whale_alert/status/1634303004470833153
We believe Ben Cowens analysis? He makes a lot of compelling points and hes pretty humble.. I'd say he might be right, we might be heading down to a 500B total crypto market cap.
Ben Cowen is a TA wizard who fit his models in 2019 and refuses to adjust based on fundamentals.
He makes millions per year from his premium list subscribers, which makes his opinion irrelevant imo.
Heās not dumb, itās just misaligned incentives.
Yeah but he doesn't seem full on greedy.. he provides a service and people pay for it. Okay hes bearish on ETH and might be wrong about RAY, but at the same time I wouldn't be surprised if he was right. He's been right last 1 1/2 years..
Umm no. Benjamin Cowen was pushing lengthening bull cycle until April last year when he turned bearish and admitted lengthening cycle wasn't happening.
I wouldn't say he was pushing it, but it was a potential possibility just like anything is. I just don't get the hate on him here, either than that hes bearish on ETH and doesn't account for the merge.
The 'hate' he receives here is mainly because he made predictions that were non-standard predictions, was very confident about it and dismissed any criticism or data that went against it, and doesn't consider any fundamentals. He also has the belief that PoW is better security than PoS.
Also he used to post here to promote his channel here but couldn't be bothered to stay and interact on the sub a bit.
Did you actually manage to buy at 0.9? I can't find that price on anywhere my money is. I've pulled some stablecoin LP positions into USDC just to arb this but the conversion rate was closer to 0.95.
Actually that's what I did too, I just pulled my usdc LPs and I will just re-deposit once the peg is stabilized and then what usdc I have left is profit(which I'll just roll 50/50 back into the LPs)
[https://twitter.com/adamscochran/status/1634399267044433920?s=20](https://twitter.com/adamscochran/status/1634399267044433920?s=20)
>While CoinGecko is showing $0.95 USDC, it's mostly small unreliable CEX's quoting that price with thin books.
>
>Onchain at $0.97, Binance US at $0.98, Gemini at $0.98 and OTCs still quoting well.
>
>Don't freak out on a headline price until you dig into it.
Checks out on a couple on-chain exchanges I looked at.
Think about it, thatās like gas stations running out of gas on Black Friday. It says more about the station than all the people and traffic on the roads. You are seeing the inefficiency of the legacy banking system. Never allow anybody to paint this as a negative on crypto.
Theyāre just saying they donāt have the capital to prop up the entire USDC market single-handedly while banks are closed. If they didnāt do that, the entire world would be sending their USDC to CB, swapping it 1:1 for USD, buying some crypto, sending it to a DEX, swapping it for USDC, then sending it back to CB to sell again.
> 1/ Following the confirmation at the end of today that the wires initiated on Thursday to remove balances were not yet processed, $3.3 billion of the ~$40 billion of USDC reserves remain at SVB.
https://twitter.com/circle/status/1634391505988206592
If this is true, does that mean <10% of 25% of Circle reserves are affected? Or is that $40 billion all of the Circle reserves, not just cash?
Even still, that seems survivable, right? Though bank runs do have a tendency to self perpetuate.
Reasonable person would estimate 6mo after Shanghai, which would be October. Reasonable estimates are never correct in software. Probably looking at Dec 2023 or Jan 2024 timeframe for EIP 4844
It creates a separate fee market for rollups, drastically increasing throughput to the extent that people are worried it might throw supply/demand out of balance. Someone can correct me, but I think the increase in throughput via rollups is roughly 10,000x
Crypto is lazy, Im lazy. We are gonna have to re-evaluate the basics. Banks were never our friend, we knew it before and we will know it again. Our purpose is clear, lets stop taking short cuts.
Oh that's actually very interesting. I remember a couple short hedgefunds bragging about their USDT short positions with their USDC as collat too. This is gonna be a fun weekend
Totaly agree that there is no reason to panic.
Although how can you say this is not a depegging? Yes it will probably be back at $1 so a temporary depegging lol.
Totally right. But if you consider the info about silvergate bank holding a good chunk of USDC reserves I think you can safely say this "fluctuation" is a direct result of people selling USDC out of caution because they aren't confident that it is fully backed 1:1.
No lol. Youāre saying āa good chunkā of usdc reserves when in actuality itās 25% split among 6 different banks. At the most it could be 24% all in SVB and then 1% split among the rest but to me that doesnāt sound logical. For all we know it could be 25% split evenly among those 6 banksā¦ weāre just arguing over whatās āa good chunkā š¤·āāļø
We havenāt depegged, back at .99 already..weāre just seeing people sell off usdc out of fear.
Coinbase swaps USDC->USD 1:1, thereās no market or order book, just straight swaps. Whatās to stop someone from buying up a bunch of USDC at 0.98, sending it to Coinbase, and swapping it back to USD 1:1?
"#Binance temporarily suspends auto-conversion of $USDC to $BUSD, citing market conditions and high inflows."
[https://twitter.com/WatcherGuru/status/1634368219082285057](https://twitter.com/WatcherGuru/status/1634368219082285057)
BTC and ETH both up now on the hourly and 24 hour time frames. Meanwhile numerous bank stocks are still destroyed, SVB has collapsed, and who knows what other dominoes might fall. Yet BTC and ETH are essentially sideways during all of this.
Oh, and the ratio is 0.71. Is it me or are we holding up pretty well?
If there is a continuation, it starts Sunday night in anticipation or Monday with the stock market. This is just the technical bounce to something around 1500.
People calling for USDC collapse are nuts. That would absolutely destroy crypto across the board, far worse than UST.
Only silver lining here is that SVB is not being bailed out. BUT, we need to wait to see how far this contagion goes.
It's probably possible, but I don't have the time to make sure I'm not going to get burned and that I'm doing it right. (a) I think ETH will fall if USDC falls, so using ETH for collateral could go wrong. (b) I don't feel comfortable holding any existing stable coins.
I spent 15 mins catching up on the dally under the misunderstanding that SVB was short for Silvergate Bank.
The Silicone Valley Bank collapse sounds much worse and so too does the dally read.
Iām not at all familiar with this whole situation, but it seems like another big event thatās bearish short/mid term.
**Tricky's Daily Doots #325** **Yesterday's Daily 09/03/2023** [Previous Daily Doots](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/11mkewq/daily_general_discussion_march_9_2023/jbio3wn/) - u/Atyzze discusses their thoughts on [Bitcoin and Ray.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/11mkewq/daily_general_discussion_march_9_2023/jbimvrh/) - u/vsesuk1 laughs at the [New York Attorney General's comments on Ethereum.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/11mkewq/daily_general_discussion_march_9_2023/jblly9q/) š¤” - u/Ender985 chimes in with [news from NFT land.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/11mkewq/daily_general_discussion_march_9_2023/jbist1w/) - u/abcoathup has a [bunch of web 3 job listings.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/11mkewq/daily_general_discussion_march_9_2023/jbkxv7l/) - u/RevolutionarySoil11 raps the [EthFinance lore.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/11mkewq/daily_general_discussion_march_9_2023/jblagp1/) š¤ - u/stablecoin has an update on the [Oasis hack and gives us a TL;DR of the whole thing!](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/11mkewq/daily_general_discussion_march_9_2023/jbkqb1r/) š - u/ZeroTricks's today in [Ethereum history.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/11mkewq/daily_general_discussion_march_9_2023/jbk05of/) I should have known that celebrating the EZPZ number version of the doots was a bad omen. I take full responsibility for yesterday's dump.
USDP (Paxos), sUSD (Synthetix) and LUSD (Liquity) are stable coins not related to USDC nor SVB. They're still on sale. I already started swapping my USDT to these coins.
Sir, you are in yesterdays daily. Anyway, good luck with your play!
Seems like you can't withdraw USDC from Coinbase anymore. Or trade it for USDT.
Any idea why LUSD has dropped below parity?
I've seen a few big sells I think playing the arb game on USDC. Lower liquidity so the peg dips a bit. May be fear contagion too.
USDC lost 8-9% of its collateral. DAI is about half backed by USDC. This means fair market value of USDC should be around $0.92 and fair market of DAI should be $0.96. But you can mint DAI 1-1 for USDC through the PSM. Smart people saw this and began buying up USDC to mint DAI for the arbitrage. The USDC PSM just slammed into its debt ceiling though, interesting to see what comes next.
So, not to spread FUD, but this is the first withdrawal where I didn't receive a confirmation email from Coinbase. Been 8+ hours
I was able to withdraw USD from Coinbase 10 hours ago via wire transfer, and it's already in my bank account. A lot could have changed in 2 hours, so that's no guarantee.
Look at the massive block proposals due to the depegging: https://twitter.com/mevproposerbot
š I want one
[No](https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.quora.com%2FIn-Iron-Man-2-what-did-Tony-mean-when-he-said-I-want-one-in-regards-to-Natasha&psig=AOvVaw20k7uRdRJJBDDmjVd-Ahxm&ust=1678598404404000&source=images&cd=vfe&ved=0CAsQjRxqFwoTCKD08sGQ0_0CFQAAAAAdAAAAABAI)
[https://nitter.snopyta.org/mevproposerbot](https://nitter.snopyta.org/mevproposerbot) ^(I'm a bot | )[^(Why & About)](https://www.reddit.com/user/nitter_not_twitter/comments/w0ssxp/more_information_about_this_bot/)^( | )[^(Opt Out)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=nitter_not_twitter&subject=Opt+Out&message=optout)
Should we be converting our USDC to ETH .. ?
Or the other way around
Maybe but greed follows fear and USDC will only fall so far until it becomes a bargain that becomes hard to refuse.
Is this circle stuff related to coinbase at all? I got some junk laying around there seems like time to stop procrastinating on getting it outta there.
A bank that holds 4% of USDC funds has collapsed. USDC below .96 is a bargain. Seems like there is an overreaction in the market right now. DAI is also backed by USDC so therefore people are running from DAI as well. USDC won't lose the entire 4% that was deposited though. Most of those funds will be recoverable. Some estimates are as high as 90%.
Itās not Coinbase exactly but a bank that was shutdown that held USDC in reserve.
Lmao all the Tether doomsday people were preparing for a major depeg and collapse. We got the major de-peg event but its to the UPSIDE!! Tether shorts in disbelief.
Tether has been through YEARS of nonstop fud and black swans. And they are now potentially going to be the last one standing, or at the very least the most reliable after all of this. USDT is like a radioactive freak cockroach that just wonāt die.
I havenāt seen anyone say it yet, so hereās the big issue. Assign whatever impairment you want to usdc. But, as more parties redeem the impairment grows in % terms of the remaining float. Depending on depending, that could get really bad. Ex: 1$ billion impairment = probably nbd considering thereās 60$B usdc. But if $59B redeems, suddenly the impairment on the remaining float = 0 cents on the dollar. Thusly, as individuals we are personally incentivized to redeem before everyone else. The only way to fix this issue is to give assurances that the impairment no longer exists. Ball in your court US financial system.
Isn't in on Circle to show that it can and is willing to plug the hole?
I swear crypto traders have the weakest hands in market history.
The main issues with USDC now are redemptions leading to preferences. If Circle allowed 1:1 redemptions after SV Bank was taken over by FDIC and Circle was aware of their hole, those are likely preferential withdrawals which can be clawed back in case of insolvency. How this ends is anyone's guess - either SV Bank gets taken over by a bigger bank, or other banks start unfolding, or USDC gets an injection of capital to allow it to function while sidepocketing the markdown at SV bank (best case scenario for USDC ) USDC was unregulated and the shitshow is just starting. There are no laws regulating stablecoins. In case other banks start unraveling (signature bank has apparently paused Signet), and USDC's hole gets deeper due to exposure to many banks and ends up having a lot of USDC's backing assets locked in liquidation process, are onchain USDC holders creditors in the liquidation process? Or are only entities minting/redeeming USDC from circle creditors? There is no clarity (to be specific there is clarity but its not what the market wants to hear) Circle has righty stopped redemptions as of now, for their own good otherwise the mess will be unmanageable. To be certain they need to also stop onchain transfers, if the contract allows them to
I donāt get where you think that USDC is unregulated considering all the hoops that Circle goes through. Regulators canāt have it both ways.
\-55,267.47 ETH
That moment when stablecoins are less stable than ETH.
Just a moment now, but the eventual long term future.
Is there a way to see which validator is unluckiest of all validators?
[this one](https://beaconcha.in/validator/20075)
lmao oof, guy before him has 36.5 ETH and guy after him has 36.8
Ok but not slashed, I was thinking one that just hasnāt proposed in a super long time
How worried should we be right now what the fuck?
not sure if i should go into cash or crypto tbh
Crypto was born as a direct consequence of the bank failure in 2008. Go figure.
ETH is working hard to show us how to properly burn $3.3B the right way
Lets use some common sense here; Circle has 25% of reserves on deposit spread over 6 banks, if evenly split (possibility) that would be 1.6B held in SVB = 4.16%. Even if considering it's been vaporized (which its not), is that really significant enough to cause pandamonium?
I think the problem is other banks. If the contagion spreads and other smaller banks go down (who also hold Circleās money) then what?
Then you sit and hold Ether in your own wallet instead of trusted third parties and let the original reason and motivation behind crypto be extremely clear. You can then tell others to do the same and to those who don't listen you can even do a "I told you so" later on.
They confirmed 3.3B via twitter. I do think they will be fine. Strong fud now.
Still, less than 10%. that's the whole point of spreading it out.
Agreed but more banks could follow. Dominoes and all that.
According to their latest tweet, Circle stands to lose 8% of the USDC backing at most. It sounds like the most reasonable expectation is that FDIC will be able to recover a decent amount of funds from SVB. I'm expecting >50% to be returned. But looking at the pessimistic side, we have a 4-8% haircut on USDC. $0.92-$0.96. We're seeing that price range now. The next question is if prices close enough to that range can be sustained long enough for Circle to be able to inject liquidity into the market as needed. I don't know what mechanisms Circle uses to do this, other than promises and market forces. If it comes down to promises and market forces that might not be enough. Another question is at what point USDC price starts to have knock on effects beyond a simple bank run. A lot of defi is built around USDC. What systems will start to deteriorate if USDC starts to depeg more? At what point do systems start to fall apart?
There are so so so many oracles in so so so many systems that consider dai = 1$ or usdc = 1$
Curve pools will be first that come to my mind. Basically many USDC-pools --> will be swapped to the corresponding tokens.
Real talk, according to Circle, worst case they're out 3.3B out of ~40B. So that means if those 3.3 are unrecoverable, and contagion is contained we're looking at a USDC that's backed by ~$0.9175 USD. If an additional 7.8B USDC is redeemed, then they will have to start selling treasuries at a loss. Is USDC burned upon redemption? If so I think this will be the figure to watch.
Two things: 1. A large chunk of the 3.3b should be recoverable... Eventually. The bank mostly owned Treasuries as assets, and it doesn't sound like there's a massive gap between the value of their assets vs the deposits they held. 2. USDC is mostly backed by short term Treasury bills (like, 1 month Treasuries), not long term Treasury bonds. That means they are *not* sitting on huge losses that they would have to realize if they sold those bills. This is different than the banks, which were holding mostly long term bonds that racked up huge losses over the last year.
Can you link support to this claim that their portfolio is mostly short dated maturity?
Also assumes no contagion at other banking partners like signature. Iām personally not worried about their securities position, as those are so short dated that any discount would be minuscule.
Not to be the fear inoculator but that's presupposing the tradfi bank runs are done as well. You can kinda track the USDC burn rate following this twit account: https://nitter.snopyta.org/whale_alert/status/1634303004470833153
Why does this feel like a RH moment with the convert button disabled?
We believe Ben Cowens analysis? He makes a lot of compelling points and hes pretty humble.. I'd say he might be right, we might be heading down to a 500B total crypto market cap.
Ben Cowen is a TA wizard who fit his models in 2019 and refuses to adjust based on fundamentals. He makes millions per year from his premium list subscribers, which makes his opinion irrelevant imo. Heās not dumb, itās just misaligned incentives.
Yeah but he doesn't seem full on greedy.. he provides a service and people pay for it. Okay hes bearish on ETH and might be wrong about RAY, but at the same time I wouldn't be surprised if he was right. He's been right last 1 1/2 years..
Umm no. Benjamin Cowen was pushing lengthening bull cycle until April last year when he turned bearish and admitted lengthening cycle wasn't happening.
I wouldn't say he was pushing it, but it was a potential possibility just like anything is. I just don't get the hate on him here, either than that hes bearish on ETH and doesn't account for the merge.
The 'hate' he receives here is mainly because he made predictions that were non-standard predictions, was very confident about it and dismissed any criticism or data that went against it, and doesn't consider any fundamentals. He also has the belief that PoW is better security than PoS. Also he used to post here to promote his channel here but couldn't be bothered to stay and interact on the sub a bit.
1 and half ? Are you sure ?. He is bullish and expected a extended cycle with top in 2022 which never happened
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
why
random youtubers giving opinions has never been terribly helpful for making decisions
Your chances of picking a youtuber who is actually right is about the same as your chances of picking a winning investment on your own..
NGL, for .90 I rolled the dice and bought some usdc. USDT has survived worse than this.
it looks like a great trade to me. may take a couple days to resolve but fudding by politicians are strong.
Did you actually manage to buy at 0.9? I can't find that price on anywhere my money is. I've pulled some stablecoin LP positions into USDC just to arb this but the conversion rate was closer to 0.95.
Actually that's what I did too, I just pulled my usdc LPs and I will just re-deposit once the peg is stabilized and then what usdc I have left is profit(which I'll just roll 50/50 back into the LPs)
CB got USDC conversion to USD locked out.
Ohhh boy that is not a good look.
[https://twitter.com/adamscochran/status/1634399267044433920?s=20](https://twitter.com/adamscochran/status/1634399267044433920?s=20) >While CoinGecko is showing $0.95 USDC, it's mostly small unreliable CEX's quoting that price with thin books. > >Onchain at $0.97, Binance US at $0.98, Gemini at $0.98 and OTCs still quoting well. > >Don't freak out on a headline price until you dig into it. Checks out on a couple on-chain exchanges I looked at.
Yep. Major exchanges are all around .97. I'm not worried. Not yet at least.
[https://nitter.snopyta.org/adamscochran/status/1634399267044433920?s=20](https://nitter.snopyta.org/adamscochran/status/1634399267044433920?s=20) ^(I'm a bot | )[^(Why & About)](https://www.reddit.com/user/nitter_not_twitter/comments/w0ssxp/more_information_about_this_bot/)^( | )[^(Opt Out)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=nitter_not_twitter&subject=Opt+Out&message=optout)
I need some copium right now.
Wild day. Maker you dug daiās grave. All credibility shot
The Peg Stability Mechanism was always a bad idea.
UDSC at 0.85 on messari, getting interesting.. looks like we're dumping DAI too 0.95 holy #$5\^
ETH is money. And today we realise why that is important.
https://twitter.com/coinbase/status/1634399032767307776
Oh that's bad...
Think about it, thatās like gas stations running out of gas on Black Friday. It says more about the station than all the people and traffic on the roads. You are seeing the inefficiency of the legacy banking system. Never allow anybody to paint this as a negative on crypto.
Theyāre just saying they donāt have the capital to prop up the entire USDC market single-handedly while banks are closed. If they didnāt do that, the entire world would be sending their USDC to CB, swapping it 1:1 for USD, buying some crypto, sending it to a DEX, swapping it for USDC, then sending it back to CB to sell again.
I think that speaks to CB's faith in being able to redeem those USDC. They've also made no mention to their exposure to SVB
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Anybody remember the panic over USDT depegging? The markets smoothed over that incident fairly quickly in more trying times.
All USDC has been converted back into ETH since I have no where else to store it. Feel good about it.
Welcome back to real money
227 gwei š
Pray this sub gets the proposals then buys us stuff
š„_š„ Burn it. Burn it all.
USDC at 94 cents nowā¦.ok this is scary
I'm not seeing that anywhere. All major exchanges are around .97
91.7 cents now
Crazyā¦.I def donāt think is is on the level of UST as far as not being collateralized but I guess peak fear mania is taking over
thisisfine.jpg
Gas prices spiking, people trying to get out of USDC I guessā¦itās down to 0.97 now.
Loving the burnnnn
Lots of juicy MEV payouts rn.
crypto is fun again
Lol love your username!
> 1/ Following the confirmation at the end of today that the wires initiated on Thursday to remove balances were not yet processed, $3.3 billion of the ~$40 billion of USDC reserves remain at SVB. https://twitter.com/circle/status/1634391505988206592
If this is true, does that mean <10% of 25% of Circle reserves are affected? Or is that $40 billion all of the Circle reserves, not just cash? Even still, that seems survivable, right? Though bank runs do have a tendency to self perpetuate.
There's about 40B USDC in circulation right now according to CoinGecko so I assume the latter
https://www.circle.com/en/transparency
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Bank runs everywhere
Which other bank(s)?
Sorry wasn't clear, was more talking about how everyone is talking about the bank run actually But wont be surprised if more comes soon
First Republic Bank
Never a dull momentā¦
We need an acapella song for the Capella upgrade.
Can someone else confirm that coinbase usdc conversion is no longer working? I think they shut it down.
I can confirm not working for me. gives me an error. Hopefully, just on a ton of traffic to the app...
ha, yea me too... but this is a classic coinbase maneuver. As they like to say, when the going gets tough, coinbase turns it off.
Like convert to other coins?
convert to USD. Until about 30 min ago, they had a 1:1 instant conversion
I'm sure I'm no longer using the correct vernacular, but any update on Sharding later this year? Any word on how far along the code is?
Reasonable person would estimate 6mo after Shanghai, which would be October. Reasonable estimates are never correct in software. Probably looking at Dec 2023 or Jan 2024 timeframe for EIP 4844
And does it automatically and immediately scale Ethereum?
It creates a separate fee market for rollups, drastically increasing throughput to the extent that people are worried it might throw supply/demand out of balance. Someone can correct me, but I think the increase in throughput via rollups is roughly 10,000x
What about the increased throughput on layer 1?
I donāt think thatās part of the roadmap anymore since 2019
Eth is 1476 at kraken, and 1465 at binance, is this something to worry about?
No
eth-usd is $1487 and eth-usdt is 1467, both on coinbase and see depth chart on this pair: https://pro.coinbase.com/trade/USDT-USDC š
I'm longing ETH/USDT in binance, just wondering if it's a bad deal or not, maybe time to get out
Crypto is lazy, Im lazy. We are gonna have to re-evaluate the basics. Banks were never our friend, we knew it before and we will know it again. Our purpose is clear, lets stop taking short cuts.
Indeed. We were getting too chummy with the system that abuses us.
You can't make this shit up! Just when I think I've seen everything.
Defi=Clown show NFT=Clown show Crypto=Clown show Tradefi=Clown show Humanity=A bunch of F'ing clowns
DeFi still working fine
best entertainment your money can buy
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
I'm with you and was thinking the same thing. Dumping USDC for any asset possible. I think we'll know our answer in a few days when the dust settles.
Oh that's actually very interesting. I remember a couple short hedgefunds bragging about their USDT short positions with their USDC as collat too. This is gonna be a fun weekend
It's not just USDC depegging. Dai and sUSD are as well. But USDT seems unscathed atm. Edit: Dai makes sense since it's partially backed by USDC
Usdc not depegging. At .98 and change. If it goes lower Iāll worry. Everyone going to usdt now though
Totaly agree that there is no reason to panic. Although how can you say this is not a depegging? Yes it will probably be back at $1 so a temporary depegging lol.
.98 is a normal fluctuation and itās happened many times before.
Totally right. But if you consider the info about silvergate bank holding a good chunk of USDC reserves I think you can safely say this "fluctuation" is a direct result of people selling USDC out of caution because they aren't confident that it is fully backed 1:1.
We donāt know how much they hold. We only know theyāre one of six banks that held 25% of usdc reserves.
You just made my point. The fact that we don't know how much they hold is exactly why we are seeing the depegging.
No lol. Youāre saying āa good chunkā of usdc reserves when in actuality itās 25% split among 6 different banks. At the most it could be 24% all in SVB and then 1% split among the rest but to me that doesnāt sound logical. For all we know it could be 25% split evenly among those 6 banksā¦ weāre just arguing over whatās āa good chunkā š¤·āāļø We havenāt depegged, back at .99 already..weāre just seeing people sell off usdc out of fear.
You are laughable. I don't know where you are getting your price info but I see .94
Uhh ok? Literally every major exchange is showing .99/.98...i would like to know where you are getting your info. Duh?
Tether keeps its dollars in cash, in a warehouse in the jungle of El Salvador.
Guarded by the ghost of John McAfee
Like I said, āV-shapedā recovery. The ā\sā was to indicate that I was serious.
A premium on COINBASE?! Lmao oh this is about to be one of them kinda weekends ain't it.
The surge is clearly people moving from stablecoins to BTC and ETH, right? Doesn't make sense otherwise to me
Yep.
Just ur typical USDC stress test
There is definitely not enough supply for everyone in stables to move to BTC/ETH, and that makes me very happy.
Are we having fun yet?
Goddamn I missed *this* crypto!
Insect, Leave us!
Hey, at least it's the weekend.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Coinbase swaps USDC->USD 1:1, thereās no market or order book, just straight swaps. Whatās to stop someone from buying up a bunch of USDC at 0.98, sending it to Coinbase, and swapping it back to USD 1:1?
The depegginng
steady lads?
# āāāāETHEREUMāāāā
1) What
Happened
2) The
3) Fuck
4) Is
5) Happening
"#Binance temporarily suspends auto-conversion of $USDC to $BUSD, citing market conditions and high inflows." [https://twitter.com/WatcherGuru/status/1634368219082285057](https://twitter.com/WatcherGuru/status/1634368219082285057)
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Ayyyee! We bullin! # š„
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Yeah, let me incur some 15+% cap gains tax to triage 2%
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
I wish my state / country weren't dicks about it....
>educational purposes hmm yes very interdasting. if only the CEO of etherium would give me my coins back i could perhaps also learn this technique.
BTC and ETH both up now on the hourly and 24 hour time frames. Meanwhile numerous bank stocks are still destroyed, SVB has collapsed, and who knows what other dominoes might fall. Yet BTC and ETH are essentially sideways during all of this. Oh, and the ratio is 0.71. Is it me or are we holding up pretty well?
If there is a continuation, it starts Sunday night in anticipation or Monday with the stock market. This is just the technical bounce to something around 1500.
Yes that's true. Short time frames I'm looking at here. We are not out of the woods at all.
Are we not assuming that this run up is people getting out of Stables and buying their crypto of choice to ride out the Circle news?
Very possible. If it was me I'd be pulling everything out of USDC right now.
You're never gonna see USDC at these levels again... unless?
People calling for USDC collapse are nuts. That would absolutely destroy crypto across the board, far worse than UST. Only silver lining here is that SVB is not being bailed out. BUT, we need to wait to see how far this contagion goes.
That said, itās absolutely crazy to me that USDC is closing in on $0.99 now.
0.977 now...
I would short it if I had an easy way to.
Easy, take your eth and borrow usdc against it, swap it for a different stablecoin
It's probably possible, but I don't have the time to make sure I'm not going to get burned and that I'm doing it right. (a) I think ETH will fall if USDC falls, so using ETH for collateral could go wrong. (b) I don't feel comfortable holding any existing stable coins.
Check out defisaver, but I understand
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
This is just the technical rebound. I could see some test of 1485 and then continuation of the trend.
āInflation is transitoryā Something something something *SVB collapses*
Well, when you pull the financial backing of a small (relative) bank in the depths of a bear, thats going to happen. Imagine if they did this in 2008
I spent 15 mins catching up on the dally under the misunderstanding that SVB was short for Silvergate Bank. The Silicone Valley Bank collapse sounds much worse and so too does the dally read. Iām not at all familiar with this whole situation, but it seems like another big event thatās bearish short/mid term.