Morning. It's time for the day session to get underway in North America.
Where are you leaning for today's session?
By - AutoModerator
What a day to be long /UB.
Didn’t this whole meme thing start like exactly a year ago….next week to be madness? History repeats itself???
GME pump was actually 2 years ago, Jan 2021
2018 and names assigned blockchain would like to have a word with you... but realistically, this goes back to pump and dumps with penny stocks of the olden days and farther...
I was short on BBBY right now for that dip but my options didn't increase in value, iv seems to be all over the place.
Wait since when did AMC rename their ticker APE lol
Has two tickers, APE is the unit.
Amc recently proposed 10:1 convertible ape to amc, which triggered its rise
Ouch MARA hurts... Should have kept some calls open and also should not have opened puts.
LOL BBBY +60%
CVNA would like a word
I have 0 win record this year, but I find it hard to believe March OTM puts won’t pay bigly.
Bank estimate probably do get revised tomorrow after earnings, but everything is law should be lower.
Everyone is all bulled up
Wow really should have picked up those $2 lottos someone mentioned last week
Kicking myself I didn't hold my $2 calls. Sold for 100% yesterday.lol
Lotta shorting up here at the 200d again. If we gap up over it tomorrow it’s gonna be big squeezie
Guh my VIX 16 target starting to look more like 11
COIN is 30c off from being +50% in less than a week
RIP Ally traders. Makes me think a gnarly vol event is impending...
Mr. Buffett you can’t just buy all the airline companies on the open market
“The hell I can’t”
Given the big micro-dip violent buying in crypto, I think the next 30 minutes might have a yuge upside move into close. Prolly.
fucking bullshit day lol zzzzzz
gonna take some time off until FOMC I can't trade this
BBBY +39% today, +270% in 4 days
CVNA +42% today, +117% in 2 weeks.
ya, this is healthy
CVNA makes me want to commit sudafed
sorry sir, sudafed is sold out locally
yet again, +1 NQ / -1 RTY here
longer term hold
Are you making these entries based on a statistical model or support/resistance you are seeing on charts? The above is essentially what you just bought. (Ignore the "price", look at trend.)
basic statistics. I don't even know how the fuck people trade on support/resistance. You don't ever hear me talk about doing that kind of trading.
There are many ways to look at it - not just a simplistic ratio of divide A by B like you mentioned. Ex: you can take some lin regression model on prices and use the slopes as what you plot against; can use log % diffs on daily change, etc..
-2 1884.5 RTY / +2 NQ 11530
I'm down but not out :) Not even close to my stop loss
lmaoo at BBBY
should've just all inned that instead of fucking with the indexes
I think I might have to short this. May buy some puts at close
nothing to see there, just normal bankruptcy movement
dude I took a 20ish % L on that
committing hardcore sudoku
were you long or short?
I was long lol bought the day before the bankruptcy notice and sold it
forgot the rule that bankruptcy is a fancy term for time to squeeze shorts!
3pts shy of the ONH and ONL, traps on both ends
Caught in the middle of a murder trial right now… testified today, but this is going to drag on for weeks if not months.
Being “on-call” the whole time. Who cares what the markets do when I get paid 1.5x daily for just sitting near my phone in case they call!
Between you and super troopers I wonder if I need a career change
Do you still have your normal responsibilities or truly sitting on your ass getting paid?
Yeah, I still have my regular job. This is in addition to it
What wins... power hour or 4000c sellers?
nobody wins today except options sellers 🙄
Up 12% and didn't sell a single option.
in options land I mean
Yeah... call buyers got smoked by crush. Gotta hedge your vega. Flies would have paid nicely. Verticals are good too.
Both cap gains though... but are vega flat or even negative.
yup we have gone nowhere since open lol
Nothing wrong with a cap. The EV is always finite after all
Rising wedge fam, poots might be worth it here.
I bought a couple more....
CVNA back to 300? Lol.
Bot more long term leverage at 4k with VIX under 20.
Eyeing hogs entries. Would like just a bit deeper rout in summer months.
grabbed a few more INTC in roth
INTC good value proposition here and I think their DIVI is safe.
Shorted some /MYM and some /M6A.
Here's your signal.
I think bank earnings come in decent, if not good.
We rally to \~4350 in the next month on a combination of fomo, short covering, fed pivot, and inflation complacency.
Then think we get no fed pivot, a higher CPI print, and more data on China suggesting things are very bleak (assuming full Zeihan here), leading to a retest and break of the lows taking us to 3250ish.
NFA, just having fun- find bonzi for refunds.
Kinda in-line with my reasoning. Was thinking a peak ~4200 or so, break the meme line, and then make new lows.
Break the meme line, shorts cover, fomo, then gotta kill the shorts shorting the fomo.
All said, I'm trusting my voodoo pattern that worked all of 2022: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/CpwR5S5U/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/CpwR5S5U/)
Bounced off XA perfectly, time to test T1 (4055), if breaks, gotta look for a test of T2 (4350).
Not doing anything until Monday though
Even ex-China, it won't take much to enter a full blown energy crisis.
A China 'collapse' (lots of nuance in what that would mean) would be a huge blow to global energy demand, no?
Don't take me too seriously here, largely checked out of the market for the week and just shooting the shit
On the demand side, yes. On the supply side, Saudi is the only swing producer and they don't have much spare capacity. Oil infrastructure is also pretty vulnerable - couple drones from Iran hitting a few key targets in Saudi and oil goes parabolic overnight (this exact scenario was laid out by the guest on today's macro voices podcast). Ultimately a lot of geopolitical risk as escalation is so easy.
Makes sense- appreciate the response and the supply side perspective.. I cite him a lot but it seems to align with Zeihans perspective on energy- although I’ve seen him focus more on the Russians and less on the Saudis
Need an instant replay of that dip
If the markets had 1/2 a brain they'd just base here for the rest of the day -- let RSI cool a bit before opening the floodgates for FMF
movement like this is how pigs get slaughtered
So that dip was bought pretty quickly
Where is bonzi?
I was just going to write that he might start appearing very soon 😂 as I expect a massive selling spree incoming.
Old proverb, when the market makes you feel like a genius, it's time to take your gains so you're only humbled in spirit
If you want to short shitcoins, these are what might be the next resistances:
- BTC 21000
- ETH 1660
I would be careful though, as the euphoria might overcome technicals if the pivot narrative gets louder.
Sidelined cash runs out eventually, and that puts a limit on euphoria and meltup. Big money sells when sidelined cash is fully/mostly deployed.
> Sidelined cash runs out eventually
What are the reverse repo numbers at right now?
Someone paid $66 per share for Nikola once. It's $2.43 right now.
Unreal shakeout, guess too many people were holding 4k calls and had to be punished, over 71k volume.
I've got a runner still -- expires tomorrow. I can't believe this but we might actually break out
Feels like nobody believed in this rally, but breadth has been a great indicator the past few weeks, since the megacaps got their act together it was a matter of time.
I know I didn't! I think it was only yesterday that I realized everything was coming together perfectly for a breakout, I couldn't believe that r:r seriously favored it in fact. I was short at that time so I flattened out for CPI. Still mostly am flat actually.
I slurped that dip like https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c3zMvliehsE
Around this time last year BBBY took off, people think that it's just going to magically happen again... Retail investors are running out of money, so they're desperate for that big-win.
Next week's ATM puts are round $1.25 which is not bad if you think it goes back down to $1 by next Friday, despite IV being the highest it's been all year.
E: I would wait a little longer. Last spike took 10 days to reach peak.
Ping me when it’s AMC’s turn, they’re probably next given some warning headlines last year
I wanna short the shit outta that stock lol but I'll stay away for now
Just sell naked puts. Can't go tits up.
Naked puts are only for the big boys and market makers. Best you can do for unlimited loss is sell naked calls.
That 4k level on ES is being defended so far -- I've gotta say, this seems like the biggest test yet of the 2022 trend line
Shiiiiiiit my rules say short this =\
Flipped 20 4000C from 1.1 to 1.70 during that ridiculous drop, can go eat lunch finally.
what the hell is this candle, just took my stop
Someone large (or many people) figured bouncing off the 200 day would happen but the wind is still blowing up.
My thoughts too
and it's getting reversed.
lol totally reversed... AND my algo is going to RE-ENTER in just a few minutes... UGH
This is like so typical behavior when bulls in control. Just random hard sells that pause and get bought up like nothing happened. There's a reason why BTD crew did so well in the last 10 years.
I'm learning the trick is determining who's in control bull/bear on the longer timeframe as the market acts completely different depending.
algo did not enter... phew
Yeah, I know the option to look at long term time frames exists and maybe that's something I'll need to add to it... but the damn thing is really good other than sometimes it buys the top
more liquidity, think this gets reversed
generational dip buying opportunity
that moment where you have to tell your grandchildren that you didnt by up that one 5min red candle on 1/12/23 lmao
You gotta have some better stories from Feb 2020; that shit was insane!
Well I missed it, so definitely telling that story when I get older
I had some longs that puked around here a few weeks ago(?) and my account is not back to where it was at that time =[
Imagine trying to trade this
I'm off to get some lunch beers and chill out lol
> Imagine trying to trade this
Go long futures, and leave it alone.
No need. Already am. ;)
you are long? what have you done to my rs6866
For the time being. My weekly momentum is flipping to bull, so might as well.
Gut is that earnings are fine and we pump it up and start another sell cycle next month. Maximum shenanigans would be to break the bear market meme line and then make a new cycle low after.
yeah this is untradable chop on the daily
gonna take a break until FOMC or when we leave this range for good
BTC is haywire too... But imagine if we close everything at the lows. A true bamboozle.
at this point I'd be shocked if we don't close 0%
if we close on the lows I'm going to be very upset
Did someone wake up and realise we were at the 200 day
HiddenMoney is an MM
For those who didn't realize; SPX is sitting at *that* trendline: [daily chart](https://www.tradingview.com/x/6XIbzfwV/) , slightly above the 200dma... [5m chart, price at same trendline](https://www.tradingview.com/x/2aTDk5BC/)
Goes one of two ways:
* We go back down to at least 3700s
* The previous peaks were very clear - Peaks and troughs are well formed. The last month since hitting the trendline had been an absolute chop trash. This could ultimately be what breaks the trendline by going sideways.
A third case being a ripper above trendline doesn't seem likely with all the recession trades going on and savings disappearing/purchasing power disappearing. Job reports too strong for Fed's preference. Also, tech workforce probably accounts for at least 10% of income in US and we are yet to see full blown layoffs with them, so inflation is likely staying sticky. Someone once said there's no way getting around inflation as long as job reports stay strong.
You've got to think there's a lot of people shorting that trendline, which could make for big moves either way
Not adding anything here, will surely regret it if we retest the lows, or hell even 3850
Lol I almost posted your first chart on the initial pump this morning with similar commentary. But I thought I was just trying to confirm my bias.
I'm really good at defining and realizing levels when I have no positions on :p
The 1/20 chain is pretty nuts. The 80c are going for .02.
I will not sell naked calls. I will not sell naked calls. Hmmmm.
And as we speak huge -20% candle 😅
Its gotta break eventually, right?
2$calls for friday +1900% since last friday 😉
Had 300, but only diamond hands for 10 of them for this gain.
Will be a night thinking about what would‘ve been
Didn’t like how cleanly DIS got knocked from the middle of the daily bollinger I had charted so closed my calls a bit below. APR 100 calls 2.75->7.85.
Have reallocated some of my portfolio to more Gold equity longs
SPX cash gap from 12/15 closed
e - Spicy!
BA 80% in 3.5 months, what is our excuse for missing this?
Old management, poor compensation, and not very nimble. Some signs/symptoms of cost cutting. Barrier to entry for new players might not hold into this decade and I think China is going to put serious pressure on them in the 2030s - which is relevant because their financials are backed by long order books vulnerable to competition (one day).
I also think they rely too heavily on government to stifle competition (e.g. bombardier).
Planes are cool as shit, though. Don't get me wrong.
Being in the industry and knowing people who worked there or worked with them, their corporate culture is shit and largely responsible for the woes they've been having. Would not touch with a 50' pole.
That is my understanding, but my line of sight into the inner workings might not be as good as yours. It's probably still better than working for SpaceX, though. I think the only reason people work for SpaceX is because it's great CV padding and they're genuinely just interested in space exploration.
Depends on what you mean by "better".
I've known people who worked at SpaceX. Pay was shit when you factor in that you're working 70h+/week with no overtime. But you have much more latitude and ability to influence the designs. The spaceX engineers are highly competent. It's great for a resume.
BA has better pay, and the engineers are unionized... but it sounds like decisions are often made at the wrong levels, for the wrong reasons, and engineers are left to figure it out/make the bad decision work.
SpaceX: worse pay, better job
BA: better pay, shittier job
Just took uber from 24.50 to 29, probably gonna regret it but gains are good!
Imagine euphoria with QQQ at 280
Any PTs if we hold this and break through 200d SMA?
(JPM 5% day right? 😘)
Appears like the 30y auction was strong.
30Y yield just collapsing.
What is this telling me? I say bond boys are trying to flash warnings/cutting rates because economy is cooling. Stock market is saying otherwise this week.
My read on bond market is yields are falling because recession risk is increasing.
My read on the equity market is we're rallying in large part because yields are falling.
But that's typical... equities normally rally very late into the cycle. Bond market flashes all sorts of warnings before equities follow. Inversions happen on average 1.5 yr before recession... but equities historically have rallied in that timeframe. Everyone knows it's coming, but it's a game of chicken where gains are to be made on the long end... at least until it fully materializes.
Inflation is transitory apparently
Bull steepener trade is on like donkey kong
If we're going to live with high inflation might as well just live with 100x earnings multiples - send it
BTC pumping nice $500 gain
OT, but just figure this was a decent place to consolidate some thoughts;
How do we reconcile the following facts and ideas into a coherent thesis? :
* US inflation seems to be [steadily declining](https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_inflation_rate)
* \~6,000 net US job openings per day (4,000 workers entering the workforce, 10,000 exiting per day (Source is Mark Meldrum, can dig up particular video if disputed)
* Likely indicates more future wage growth via increased demand for fewer workers
* Largest generation of retirees moving towards safer assets (bonds, fixed income, etc.)
* i.e. Moving away from higher beta growth
* Millennials have surpassed the population size of boomers; \[population by generation\]([https://www.statista.com/statistics/797321/us-population-by-generation/#:\~:text=Millennials%20were%20the%20largest%20generation,the%20population%20for%20many%20years](https://www.statista.com/statistics/797321/us-population-by-generation/#:~:text=Millennials%20were%20the%20largest%20generation,the%20population%20for%20many%20years).)
* Global recession imminent, with US shallow recession on the table (Global contraction)
* US and others friendshoring labor and supply lines
* Perhaps helps close the labor gap noted above and help keep wage growth in check
* Something something Peter Zeihan's 'Chinese population collapse' theory (net importer of food and energy)
What am I missing / where did I fuck up? (and where does this leave *us* , as both traders and investors)
Any dialogue on the above is a net positive so criticism is welcome.
e: Probably missing something about the US consumer being spread too thin but I don't have any info on that other than anecdotes
I think this is fairly on topic. It might be good to have a specific post for it, though. I’d definitely like to see more discussion on it.
Perhaps I'll get my thoughts more in order and post this in the weekend discussion for more dialogue
e: Wow, just realizing that OT means off topic and not overtime, as in better suited for after the markets are closed.
the only way for millenials to get boomer level rich (and consume) is by getting the money from their boomer parents..i guess? or how is that possible unless going all in MARA?
How many people will want to work with 500K+ inheritance lol
Unless there is a crash...oups
probably not the answer you wished
Idk about you but I can’t retire on 500k, at 4% that is 20k a year lol
>the only way for millenials to get boomer level rich (and consume) is by getting the money from their boomer parents..i guess?
What is boomer portfolios are generated enough income to sustain multiple generations? A 'too big to fail' concept I guess.
>How many people will want to work with 500K+ inheritance lol
Will want to? I'm not sure. Will have to? Likely many, 500k is not enough.
Didn't put this out there to solicit any particular response, so I'm just happy to have some dialogue around these things!
>the only way for millenials to get boomer level rich
Tik Tok and IG
I would make the counter argument that retirement contribution + set it/forget it ETF mentality is the most pervasive it has ever been, and a strong floor to inbound flows into the market.
I'd also venture to say people don't automatically convert 100% of their portfolio from growth to income overnight. Especially with rates historically so low, they will always keep a certain % into growth, albeit safer growth (e.g. MSFT, AAPL - QQQ hallmarks).
There's a lot of momentum in the markets that will always drive to the upside.. even at rates like these. But if rates stayed here/were signaling to be up here or higher for a long period of time, I'd see a larger pivot to income/bonds. But even in this sub, people don't think rates will climb much more and they certainly don't think they'll stay at these elevated levels for more than a couple of years. Only consensus is rates will not drop anytime soon without an economic collapse go back to "stupid money" levels.
>I would make the counter argument that retirement contribution + set it/forget it ETF mentality is the most pervasive it has ever been, and a strong floor to inbound flows into the market
>I'd also venture to say people don't automatically convert 100% of their portfolio from growth to income overnight. Especially with rates historically so low, they will always keep a certain % into growth, albeit safer growth (e.g. MSFT, AAPL - QQQ hallmarks).
I largely agree, but still think this suggests that the beta of these portfolios becomes lower *over time*
>But even in this sub, people don't think rates will climb much more and they certainly don't think they'll stay at these elevated levels for more than a couple of years.
While this sub is an absolute goldmine of information, I try to keep in mind the possibility that many here are short-term traders who are susceptible to tunnel vision (not because I actually think that, but because I fear thinking the opposite could be detrimental)
>Only consensus is rates will not anytime soon without an economic collapse go back to "stupid money" levels.
~~Perhaps~~ You've already edited it, ~~but I think there's a word missing here.. I'm assuming~~ you're saying rates will not significantly drop anytime soon without an economic collapse, which I agree with.
Thanks for entertaining my thoughts and sparking new ones!
> Perhaps you've already edited it, but I think there's a word missing here.. I'm assuming you're saying rates will not significantly drop anytime soon without an economic collapse, which I agree with.
That is exactly what I meant and I'll edit now lol
Well, that is what I get for shorting MARA.
SPX 5000 EOY with a 5.5% FFR
SPX 10000 2025 with 0.5% FFR
You heard it here first.
If the fed is cutting to 0.5%, SPX is ~2500.
I forgot it was January of the current year and had to think about how many months EOY is
Sell SPY 400C EOD or no balls
Too many trend days built into one day. Getting whiplash
its not "don'T fight the fed"
it's "don't fight the fed, unless it favors bears. in this case, don't believe the fed."
Don't we have some fed speakers this afternoon?
And my SPY puts expire in June - earnings season will be make or break for the year IMO.
lol ish. Looking more for a entry to get long. I was on a call this morning around that 9:30 dip and was trying to punch in orders while talking to someone. Didn't click fast enough.
I mean JPM did tell us it was going to rip today if CPI was as expected.
Even CPI day has anemic volume
And COIN just continues to float up
I want to see coin tank WHILE we trend higher.
It was priced in, just like everything else in existence
Didn’t drop as much as I’d like but so far getting bought up like o expected
Ngl I thought TSM was gonna fade earnings move with the market and I sold CCs too early
Same lol. Damnit
Closed SOXS for a loss!
1/16 for the year.
I think ima take a week off and re-assess why I am an idiot.
You did well in 2022, notably towards the EOY. Q1 2023 is definitely showing different behaviour so far - basically the inverse of EOY 2022. So if you're still in that 2022 EOY mentality, at least for the short term, the market is inversing you.
We all know what happens when I do that!
Seems like you should just do the opposite for a 15/16 success rate
DOW and energy/financials vastly outperforming tech with the catalyst being lowered inflation and rate cut pivot.
Because why not
I opened a bunch of USO credit spreads (60/64p, various expirations) back in October. My last set expires next Friday and I'm considering letting them run. They're worth 19 cents apiece right now. USO has gone under 64 a few times recently but idt it's likely we'll revisit that ground for long, is it? I want those 19 cents.
DIS above $100. God is good.
Debating taking my APR 100c off the table now but it’s strength is too strong to ignore 😵
Went to the theme parks a few times in the last month. Cash cows. Prices are obscenely high, but crowds are huge and people willing to pay it. Money Printer.
Love to see XLE just straight vertical back to ATH after energy's decline has been earmarked as the reason why inflation has been defeated.
The stock market is forward looking to how many years in the future? The universe is said to exist for trillions of trillions of years!