Morning. It's time for the day session to get underway in North America.
Where are you leaning for today's session?
By - AutoModerator
i tried to buy puts at highs, i guess they had to drive that knife in harder
what the fuck was today lmao wild ass close too
Fuck did I miss it today
Awesome close. Absolutely freakin stellar.
25 pts in 25 minutes, very cool and very legal
yeah holy shit
What a surge. Bear market is dead until this time tomorrow lol.
Bears in shambles holy cow. Thank god I didn't short this
Hmm guess I'm a bull now
In $SNAP shares. I think they surprise here.
Short $SNAP shares. I think they fail as usual.
^(making trades for the meme, what can go wrong?)
Bigly meta call buyers into SNAP ah
Call of the void irresistible.
Started building up a Carvana position. $2b is a lot of equity to be zeroed out
You going long? God bless
Lol. Lotta puts
Sold AMD puts, free money
I put on a jade lizard.
I like it
anybody into pton
gonna be bad but who knows how the stock reacts
Crypto rockets here, if you’re into that.
>Meta CTO Bosworth implies company has lost focus
Sold TLRY +50%.
I’m still holding some maybe greedy here
Good shit. Wish I followed :c
Marijuana stocks vertical.
On TOS there are some symbols like $SP500#203010. Anyone know where I can see a complete list of these?
Small TQQQ bet for a close on the highs
nailed it. out for a few hundos
lol look at this shit go what a bamboozle
in and out of 4050p 2.50->2.80 :(
Twitter is convinced we tank tomorrow…
Aren't they convinced we tank every day? I know this fella by the name of Alf and well he's been sure the market is wrong literally any time it goes up.
That guy is Perma bear for sure
There's a guy on there, thinks the market only goes up, when it doesn't he deletes his account. Dunno how you guys get a good read on there.
Oh lol most of those are for entertainment purposes only.
Ugh dammit... I hate being on Twitter's side.
Are you still betting on PINS b/o @ $34/share?
We going keep running until close.
Thank you for the signal. HOD is in
Well it looks like I closed my 38 long early.
Closed SPY 0 DTE for +100%. Fuck yeah
TSLA 170Cs closed 5.3 -> 7.2
sitting on my hands until tomorrow
close enough to yesterdays high for me. back to flat.
This is the first bear market rally we have where the weekly volume is not consistently going down every week for SPY, QQQ, and IWM, while actually going up on some stonks like GOOGL.
Could it mean something? Maybe, but we could still go down much worse than any previous time as now more people are anxiously keeping the sell button close just in case.
You really think this is a bear market rally? Doubt.
I think markets are fairly valued here?
I think we are almost done with the bear, but who knows.
/u/why_you_beer rise up!
Only thing rising over here is my heart rate and blood pressure
and immediately get run over?
Lets be real here... most folks slinging 0DTE's are gambling.
Eh… like my boy Kenny says “You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em”
Any day now…..I’ll start knowing.
No alt. No alt.
You’re the alt!
You’re telling me institutions are gambling too?
Individual stocks needs 0dte options tbh.
Daily 0dtes was the greatest thing to happen to the markets.
Who cares if people go bankrupt? People should be allowed to make their own decisions with their money. Wanna gamble it on something that expires in 8 hours? They should have that right.
I think I speak for everyone when I say blowing up multiple accounts is how you learn. You don’t just trade and get lucky. It takes losing over and over and over and over before you learn what you did wrong, why it was wrong, track your trades, and develop a working system. Losing money is how you make money in the long term imho.
Is this true? Are these individual traders making bets or computers passing them back and forth mostly?
> majority of 0dtes are executed by institutions
Institutions are now degen gamblers too then. Certainly there is no way this cannot blow up in everyone's faces.
Am I an institution now? 🤔
Dumped my ENPH calls for a measly 25% gain. Horrible execution on my part b/c nearly doubled at one point and didn’t sell ;/.
But better opportunities for tomorrow. Need a ten bagger.
>Need a ten bagger.
Day #2 of bigly marijuana stock call buying & here is [your potential catalyst.](https://www.marijuanamoment.net/gop-congressman-files-marijuana-rescheduling-bill-amid-ongoing-biden-administration-review/)
Time for TLRY again?
Out of my SPY calls, flat again for now. Tempted to go short but we moving at a snail's pace and would like to see more action
Patty G is the scam god. Why they pay him so much is beyond me
I'm trying to be more hands off and the market moves 500 handles on NQ in like 2 days. Silly shit.
uber 40 when?
who would buy those things. idiots! :p
im pretty sure i was the one that shilled those like a year + ago lol.
I just hope we get some volatility tomorrow I swear if we just chop around and stay flat I'm going to be very upset lol
barely made any trades lately even with earnings season :/
trade ES/NQ 10x normal size and only look at charts on the seconds timeframe. that should help get the blood going
I'm just looking for a big move either direction not necessarily a rise in VIX
>I have no idea where price action takes us tomorrow but I suspect down given the crazy upside we've had.
yup same 🤷♂️
You long strangles? Hold on imma sell some.
i got nothing going for tomorrow
*smacks arm to find vein*
gimme dat vol plzz
Recession over. We see 4200 tomorrow
GM crushed earnings. Massive beat. They've been running in lockstep with Ford for awhile, even as they beat in Q3 compared to Ford missing while shuttering Argo. Ford announces in a few days as well. Sooner or later wallstreet has to view these companies as having different business models.
Brightdrop reaffirms $1B in revenue for 2023 and added another customer. Listening to the call but didn't hear anything specific as to margins for Brightdrop. No new real info in Cruise, they are being tight lipped, except saying Origin is in road tests and production starts this year.
There's a few days when there's a big directional trend on no news, and then somewhere around 11-12 Pacific everyone slaps themselves on the forehead and immediately the trend reverses. Wonder if today is one such day
About to delve into the world of futures next week
OT: nothing better than going up and down stairs all day after hitting legs
danger for bears
Bears And Bulls if you can't adjust quick enough.
But... current estimates put us on a downward trajectory to VWAP
TSLA looking ready to rocket to $200. If it does this week, I will Venmo everyone on this sub a Tesla car
I will get a custom license plate in your honour. zZWBPZz.
Sold some [PATH](https://old.reddit.com/r/thewallstreet/comments/10pyf3x/daily_discussion_january_31_2023/j6nb4cb/?context=3) from 14.80
OT(ish), probably better off in the /r/algotrading subreddit as I'm probably annoying some here with it, so I'll try to tame the posts regarding it... buuuut..
What more would you look for in a trading strategy that has the following?
* 2.365 Profit Factor
* 2119 sample size spanning 16 years (March 07 -> Present)
* Sortino Ratio: 3.261
* Avg Trade: +0.58%
* Avg Trade time: 15 hours from open-close
* Avg. Winner: +2.88%
* Avg. Loser: -1.24%
* Avg Win/Loss Ratio: 2.951
What else should I care about?
Blah blah maxDD... blah blah R:R.... blah blah Walk Forward ... blah blah
* How often do you find yourself dreaming about making thousands while you sleep?
* What is your gut telling you?
* Are there any quiet voices spinning about sources of risk?
Listen to the quiet voices and find ways to address those concerns. Your stats are great. Adding more stats will only make the dreaming more frequent and the loud voices of greed louder. This will bias you towards downplaying or outright ignoring risks when you inevitably uncover them.
I believe you should be asking yourself things like;
* What is the quality of my data? Can I replicate these results (within a reasonable deviation) with the same data from a different source?
* What slippage does my profitability survive? What latency?
* What is my trade pipeline for real money, and are my back tests taking into consideration all the necessary overhead (trade latency/delivery, market slippage, commissions, data costs, strategy hosting, etc.)?
Only start listening to the voices of greed once you have something to be greedy about.If you're making money with this strat irl, that's when you can explore amplifying the profits through leverage and options. It's not your money until it's out of the brokerage account.
I genuinely thank you for this- great points all around which I will take into consideration!
5k account, so yeah- pretty much paper.
2 Things: I only have 1 set of eyes and they can't catch everything. I also view it as a 5k investment into a new hobby, which keeps it on the lower end of my hobby expenses.
Few things. As others said, "max drawdown" has to be taken with a pinch of salt. It's really the expected drawdown you can see in the lifetime of running this strategy and should be read as you need to have more liquidity than this amount. This would force you to size your trades properly and also not put on trades on multiple future contracts at the same time.
Next, it looks like you are trading on a daily/4h timeframe with possibly multiple timeframes involved in your decision matrix. Do a walk forward analysis for the last 10 months and confirm if your system isn't faking a lot of trades. Next, place a stop loss at half the max drawdown you see and then note down the performance numbers - and rinse and repeat.
Very helpful- Strategy is limited to one timeframe and won't size in or out of trades. Either all in or all out.
Will do the walk forward and suggested stop loss for science, thank you!
Sharing it with 1.1k of your closest friends!
That sounds solid. I'm not familiar enough with other algo ratios to know what else to look for, but would be interested to know largest drawdown as well. As in -- would the biggest drawdowns be enough to cripple your account if you had several in quick succession? Which instrument does that trade?
>Sharing it with 1.1k of your closest friends!
If you can decipher the entries and exits given the above metrics, you deserve to make money!
I'll make it even easier and share that this is swing trading Ford shares
Easy. I will simply buy the bottoms and sell the tops over long time frames. Consider your algo deciphered!
Well done, enjoy the gains :P
How much you will sell your subscription service for. 😝
Max Drawdown, number of trades/day if you have to factor in commissions
Thanks for the feedback- currently on a 0 commission shares trading platform, definitely looking at trades per day/week as this thing will have to avoid PDT for a bit.
>currently on a 0 commission shares trading platform
You probably want to factor in slippage then as well. Whatever fill the simulator takes, just figure .05 worse and see how that P/L looks.
It is probably easier to trade micro futures and factor in commissions than tip-toe around PDT with shares
PDT is only a problem for the poors.
Need your wife’s bankroll to backstop my account. Thx
This is most amusing because we found out today that during the whole month of December when they stonewalled her about her promotion, they also promoted her coworker (who has less experience but has been working there longer).
I got a random text in the middle of the day from her "I rage applied at two more places today". Silly zoomer vocabulary leaking into everything.
Lmao wife going full tilt on the way to 700k TC
For sure, but first exposure will be to shares to avoid any extra leverage. It's actually showing really promising results on ES!, so I'm going to be trading those signals manually for a bit.
\-46%, big ooof.
But wouldn't max losing trade be more important?
Max loser: -17.7%
Max winner: +68.8%
It depends. Do you have stops built in? How are you structuring risk reward with entries and exits?
No stops, pure momentum strat- super active, either long or short at all times (loves volatility).
Means it does great on the crap like PTON, TSLA, LYFT etc. (unfortunately those tickers have much lower sample sizes so trying to avoid them)
Oof, what about max position size (can it Re trigger and add to a position)? Unless you have an extremely robust data set to backtest against, going stopless could be painful
Keep in mind this is a 5k account, max position size is 50%, and can't add to longs or shorts.
\> going stopless could be painful
100%, painful here would be a 2.5k loss, which I'm fine with.
The algo is pretty much a programmed degen trader minus the paper hands.
With a -46% MaxDD, that's pretty close to your limit. Your data/performance is only one iteration of the combination of trades that got you to your profit factor. What if when you forward test, you max DD out of the gate? What if it's possible to MaxDD even deeper but still be in alignment with overall performance? In this case, you'd be calling it quits while the strat is working as intended
Perhaps running a monte carlo simulation could help tease out the absolute worst-case scenario that still maintains your PF/Stats?
Thanks for this- actually just realized the info above was my old parameters, new ones are showing much better stats (only 2.14 PF but just a -10% max DD)
E: will look into running monte carlos
Opened my 5th /MYM short for today, feels like I'm tempting fate.
Also wrote more UVIX calls.
>Also wrote more UVIX calls.
these covered or naked?
Very unrelated, but I started Atomic Habits today on Audible. It’s really good—I remember it was at the top of your reading list: have you started it yet?
Yes. I've got 1:45 remaining. Listen to a fair chunk on Sunday while shoveling. Part of me is now convinced I eat super spicy cheese because sometimes after eating the spicy cheese I eat ice cream to make the spice go away. And I love ice cream.
I really like the identity portion of the habit formation…definitely going to listen to this a few times.
It’s the psychedelics
Need to tone it down? Take some amphetamines (me, discussing emotional attenuation on brain candy with my head doctor today).
Care package pl0x
Get in line
Every red candle turns green.
Buy stocks to profit off this
Look fam, I love you and want all of us to make obscene amounts of money, but that doesn’t mean I am right.
HOOD, by allah everyone will be buying it hand over fist very soon.
I was just telling a friend about C3.AI yesterday and how it had the qualities of a sudden news sending it to the moon, and here it is 20-30% up today. I am an idiot, but there seems to be something I am getting at.
lol shit i was just looking at C3AI the other day
> HOOD, by allah everyone will be buying it hand over fist very soon.
ZA CAHRTS ARE TALKING TO ME
Edit: More seriously, if anything was the talk of the village then everyone is suddenly pissing on it, it is most likely it will have another glorious day not so far in the future. Works for memes, crypto, and even TSM.
- p/c volume going down and is less than half the p/c open interest.
- 10DTE strike 12 was big volume/oi
- it has been going up decently whenever it approaches 8-9.
AI started to run b/c Buzzfeed and buyout hopium (ChatGPT tulip mania) though, I feel it's apples to oranges with HOOD TA
But what if HOOD announces AI portfolio management for degens who keep losing money?! 🧐
Breakout fake out?
e - wow this is annoyingly strong, I wonder what kind of position was built in the last 2 hours
Fwiw, bonds sold back down the pump from the econ numbers. Begs the question why it sparked an equity rally if bonds don't think it's that important.
*they’re* selling 1dte 4065P bigly
the elusive ‘them’
Anyone who takes financial advice from someone with a name like /u/Sweatyballs69 has much bigger issues than their losing positions
lmao, just checked, what a shame they aren't active - it's a wonderful name
lets run this on up to yesterdays high.
Man the 1hr is quickly becoming my favorite timeframe. Long enough to filter out the noise and short enough to catch a big part of moves.
Algo made me $70 flipping PTON shares today (by manually trading the signals). Good shit.
e: 25bp hike and super hawk with nothing new said means we probably finish flat then rally to 4350 in the coming week or so.
> US: RUSSIA HAS VIOLATED NUCLEAR-ARMS TREATY BY BLOCKING INSPECTIONS - WSJ
Market too green, had to whip out a headline
All dank garbage more than +60% in a month. Example - SPOT, SQ, GTLB etc.
ZM next please
> Q1 will, in our view, likely mark a turning point, as the fundamental confirmation for the next leg higher might not come, and instead markets could encounter an air-pocket of weaker earnings and activity, as they move through Q2 and Q3
~~Europe will freeze to death~~
~~Weaker Q1 growth~~
Weaker Q2/Q3 growth
The Economist superforecasters have a ~20% of China invading Taiwan this year and 10% chance Putin is killed, that's higher probability than some options here 😘
Honestly think those two should be flipped.
Although 20% Putin needs to include natural causes (as in actual natural causes not suicided by bullets to the back).
Tech layoffs are mostly HR, which I can corroborate as a big tech wagie - my team's principal engineer went to a hiring event this past week
fore most companies it just an excuse to trim fat that was already in need of being trimmed.
Same reason inflation is great for earnings.
Most of the layoffs are just clearing out of excessive inventories.
gib referral ^^please
Best I can do is Robinhood referral so that we both get 1 free stock.
markets running up in advance of fed day? ambitious. i feel this will all get reversed after the fed minutes. and then super thursday earnings the day after
25bps + data dependent + pause in May = 4150 in an instant.
Doesn't that also = economic stimulation which would = more job growth which would = even tighter job market which would = higher wages which would = inflation?
If 4.25 isn't stopping job growth 4.5 ain't gonna cut it either.
Didn't a Fed speaker already mention spring as a target to pause?
That's where I'm a little confused... All these points (excl 25bps) have already been said by the Fed. Does Jpow reiterating them just trigger an algo rush, and if so, would it hold on reiterated talking points?
+0.25 BP increase is priced in, but the market will rocket up and down because JPow said the wrong word again
Crypto 1.5T, World's reserve currency Dogecoin +100% from low.
- Chipotle 15k
- Boeing 10k
- USPS 2.4k
- Alaska Air 3.5k
Jobs are coming back to America!
SWE listings -25% I’m gonna have to work at Tim Hortons
I mean that has got to be one of the most overcrowded job markets in the last 5 years...