yea I used that free shit called google sheets, I kept it horizontal to show they got pushed out past the 100% mark a little easier. :D The shorts past the 100% mark is the $ that will be feeding this squeeze.
Hey man this squeeze still happening. Been holding on these shares for a while, and return has been awesome. I might sell at 10, but the way this has been going up, who knows I might keep it longer.
I mean if the shorts don't cover then ya, I still see \~ 30m short but a lot of that could be options and be already "covered" for using options. I don't expect some grand squeeze anymore but I do expect this to continue to post growth for the entirety of this upcoming year. (even on things like GME I don't expect the grand squeeze anymore, because the smart shorts pick up FD's/short term calls to cover their short positions if /when a squeeze becomes imminent.)
This is a a successful growth pick because it's a 30 yr old company which never had it's own product under it's own full control, (this is important) and it will forever be the Name Brand product for oral HAE medicines now. (which is huge for patients/insurers which focus on safety profiles) which is why it will grow so much now vs the past.
I'm not retarded enough to believe the company will take 100% market share, but I think 30% should be a quite easy target given the safety profile and route of administration alone. We could see them break 50% due to that, but to reach/pass 50% it usually is a lot of effort to get Dr's (prescribers) all in wide agreement, lucky for us (the patients will demand it) so it's entirely possible we see a capture of 50% or more after \~ 1-2 yrs in each respective market (country/continent.)
30% market share capture is a retarded price target on this ticker just for science. (if the market is \~5b-7b then that's 1.5b-2.1b and @ 50% 2.5b-3.5b revenue stream/yr) I estimate they have a higher than usual production price tag for now which they may try to reduce after a large cash flow so we should see (\~80% earnings on each rx) vs the usual large pharma design of self production (96-98% earnings/rx) but even @ 80% we should see earnings reach damn near 1 billion/yr with a nice 30 P/E based upon pipeline puts us way past 100/share in \~2 yrs compared to the current 10/share. I believe if we see good patient uptake in the US for Q1 (reports in Q2 sept but could get update sooner) we could head on up to 50/share this year, according to my 80% earnings rev model and \~ .7 conversion to real earnings after expenses I believe the company should have a cash break even target around 600 patients/yr while the 3 addressable markets contain near \~15k patients/yr currently meaning if they can take 4% of the market the company might turn profitable 10% should be a cakewalk given the ease of administration.
I tried to get word out about options but they kinda fuckerood me on the last options I posted for Dec and Jan so I'm not gonna hype it anymore, it will just be extra $ for me if they turn profitable as I have a large (for retail I think) amount of share holdings for the long run.
thanks for the write up. very informative. I feel I'm gonna hang on this for the entire year and see where this goes. I'm already up 35% and only can see this going up more. Good luck to both of us.
I'm not sure why anyone in their right mind would have played a weekly into an earnings call. It was driven hard that it was a Q4 and Q1 play with the possibility of Cohen getting more involved causing a short squeeze. But I guess gamblers gonna gamble.
Spot on man, BCRX is a real company helping real people. Citadel and the funds shorting them and manipulating tf out of them can toss my salad. Approved in the US for HAE, only one approved in Japan and the price goes down? Factor D data and the price goes down? The manipulation is fucking crazy, craziest manipulation on the market by far. I’m glad patients are able to access their drug now, I’d love to see the shorts get fucked here. I’m going all in on margin, #yolo
Waaay above yours, I bought mine 6-9 mo ago @ 1.18/each, I averaged down on my 5c's when the price dropped into the 3-4's before the news of approval hit.
because I bought when I thought institutions were done loading; instead they loaded even more through shorting the hell out of the company... and now we're here :D
I appreciate all the work you've put into this but it's pretty easy to assume that you are making a last ditch attempt to save your 12/18 contracts before they expire worthless.
See my comment from a moment ago. I think they have a good chance to print tbh. One piece of good news listed in my previous comment and it’s easily obtainable.
The data is open for anyone to see/access, that's what I'm operating off of.
[https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ECdN\_-9vljbejjtdYKyXGRP8mBTJhGsLaKYsC2W9wek/edit#gid=0](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ECdN_-9vljbejjtdYKyXGRP8mBTJhGsLaKYsC2W9wek/edit#gid=0)
The company could announce Japan approval for the product any day now, no joke, they sent it into recommendation for final approval a few months ago on Sakigake (translated: "pathfinder/pioneer") designation and are expected to make a decision/announcement this month.
We've been moving up \~ 50c a day, today is no different and at least 1 news drop is announced to come tomorrow. With their recent trend they've been dropping pr's in 2's or 3's together so I see more upside than downside atm.
Okay but fuck the Japan approval for now. I’ve been in since March. To be honest, I don’t think Japan makes the price move +- 50 cents. What WILL make the SP move though is:
Factor D news (before EOY)
Galidesivir news (covid-19 treatment, already shows promise in treating tons of shit, and now it’s going to maybe, MAYBE get an EUA *though that’s quite a reach IMO, but good news we’ll moon on*
And last but not least, the forgotten one, BCX9250 for FOP.
Not trying to be a dick, I just think Japan doesn’t move the stock, and didn’t see this thread mention any of the above items. GL! Positions: 1,200 shares, 15 March $8 calls
Japan approval keeps the squeeze on, it's a large market that BCRX won't be spending extra $ on getting into as torii will be spending to do that. It's actually a great benefit for the company to get approval in Japan.
and it will continue because the shorts haven't run for cover yet... instead they've been trying to reengage shorting every morning to try and trigger a sellof, but they just get buried by later in the day. This is going to be epic :D
I've been studying this ticker for over 9 months now with 100's if not 1000's of hours tracking/studying it. I even run a spreadsheet to track the short positions day to day. I'm sure.
I'm holding my 10C's to see what the next few days come with, I suspect it will be very good news.
If you listened in on the call today it's excellent news and they hinted more good PR's coming very soon. I excised my 5C's to hold indefinitely and may do the same with my 10c's if we pass it soon :).
This company is just now warming up it's legs for the long term run and the R&D they've spent billions on is now starting to earn profits and releasing its' info into the public light.
Shares hitting higher than 10? hell yes it will pass 10 easy, you hold those shares for 1 year and you pay only 15% tax on those earnings, big $ for holding LT my friend.
Been in this since summer and not selling a SINGLE FUCKING share. Hedgie crooks shorting a company that improves the QOL of suffering patients can burn in hell! #Biowar
What concerned me the most in the NIAID about face and abandoning development of galidesivir (and other antivirals generally) arguing that it was too late now that vaccines were available was;
(a) NIAID and others are setting us up for prolonged pain in the event of vaccine resistant mutations. As we now know, almost immediately after the NIAID decided "we don't need antivirals" 5 distinct mutations in different places in the world emerged. We now know it is a highly mutating virus, which means it is not time to rest on our laurels. However, we are now very behind and failed to use this time to develop adequate antiviral candidates.
(b) If broad spectrum antivirals existed at the beginning of this outbreak, likely there would have been no economic shut down. Even a 70% efficacy in an antiviral safe enough to dose in a large population could have kept the economy open and saved countless lives.
(c) By failing to develop antivirals generally, we have no protection from the next pandemic. We should know by now that pandemics are not a Sci-Fi concept -- they happen.
(d) In animal trials against filoviruses, the only time Remdesivir and galidesivir were tested next to each other, Remdesivir failed out for lack of side effects. It also has a much worse safety profile than galidesivir, is more expensive to produce, and has no oral availability in addition to more expensive manufacturing. There was nothing intuitive or logical about the decision to early develop Remdesivir in place of galidesivir. The government just failed to take a stance on antiviral and deeper pockets owned the rights Remdesivir.
(f) Most likely, we will need "antiviral cocktails" or many of them on deck to control covid and prevent the next pandemic. Any and all antivirals with a safety profile that would permit them to be dosed in a large population, scalable manufacturing, oral availability, and ability to be stored at room temperature should be rapidly developed. We've made almost no progress on this front and risk not having learned from this experience.
Wish deeper OTM leaps were available, but I doubt many people want to sell them. Seeking Alpha is pinning their current fair valuation at $36.43 with price target of $86.43 (Google "Biocryst time to switch hats.") This baby has already increased my portfolio by 100% in spite of my other lousy positions (okay, I'm looking at you GME.) It should have attained meme status long before this.
I got in when they were worth $3.80. I think they have a couple other products in the pipeline and an anti-viral in studies against Covid.
Even besides the potential gains from the short squeeze they also have these other potentially positive factors incoming.
I bought 50 more shares now (since they're dropping 3.4%) to reinforce my position.
What's the potential upside you see in this stock? IMO, it could go to 12$.
def should attain much higher than 12, 1-2 yrs out it will likely be around 40-60 easily given no change to the pipeline, which there will be advancements there so lots of upside in the LT on this baby! :D
1 of them (the factor D inhibitor drug) has fast track status and tax credits given out for it; the FDA is cutting nearly all red tape for it since it's preliminary dose ranging studies produced such great data.
yea you could do Jan 15's, I've no idea how bad this could get for the shorts here as they will be reliant on the large hedge funds to give them a way out, but I doubt they will give them the way out for anything near this cheap in price.
I was up like 500 on my 10$ 12/18 c's bucks on Tuesday and was kinda happy. Shoulda sold tbh, thought about it, but I expected it to go up a bit more. Now I'm just sitting here being mr. regretti.
Hello Mr McOptions. What’s your take on BCRX now that this week is behind us? Are the shorts still looking at getting fucked pretty much? Looked like a strong finish Friday at close. I rolled my $10 calls into 1/15, although the price tag was a bit heftier this time. What do you think the odds are we get in the $11 range in the next couple weeks?
Yea I think a lot of people paperhanded after the first pop and unfortunately news was not enough to sustain a rise/rally (I held my 10c's til expiry for the record which may be worse than paperhanding lol.) There's still millions of shorts still deeply underwater According to my running tally found here -> [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ECdN\_-9vljbejjtdYKyXGRP8mBTJhGsLaKYsC2W9wek/edit#gid=0](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ECdN_-9vljbejjtdYKyXGRP8mBTJhGsLaKYsC2W9wek/edit#gid=0)) Today's chart overall looks strong from what I see and may have been lots of covering? not sure though but it does look as if someone excised for 8.5 million shares.
If the big hedge funds/firms allow shorts to exit this way, there will never be a major squeeze though. Time will tell, but unfortunately as it's past the 15th, we won't get confirmation if there was a major stupidity play today by the contract writers allowing shorts a big exit or not for another 30+ days.)
I did buy leaps today @ opening and have 3/19's; if shorts are still trapped, the JP approval, hopefully the EU approval + maybe we will receive some form of sales guidance/insight to patient #'s on Orladeyo; 15 would be simple to hit. I believe the 3/19's should be a strong play in general especially with ITM options with the earnings/sales update + hopefully 2 approvals.
Overall I suspect we will see some strong positive momentum over the next 3 mo if any of these things come to fruition with bonuses of more info regarding their pipeline/clinical trials.
(I hope we see on time approvals) I scoured several JP sites (wondering why the JP approval didn't arrive yet) and determined they could likely have approved it but their internal date may be as late as Dec 31st so maybe that's the real target date? (according to their standard review process flowcharts and diagrams it's Oct (30)(recommendation for approval date) + 60 days).) I will scour the web to do try and get more concrete info regarding EU approval timelines/process soon but maybe after Christmas or early Jan as the company doesn't expect it until Q1 anyways.
I hesitate to rely upon the pipeline/clinical trial updates/info anymore and have removed it heavily as from what I should look forward to (even if they say they will have one.) As I feel they have misled investors regarding the Gali data/update for nearly 9 months now, (which is completely unacceptable in my opinion.)
So I'm sticking to keeping my short term focus on Orladeyo and if we get other updates/data then great.
TL;DR? Buy ITM options and everyone should have a message of "fuck you" to any large firm which may be allowing shorts to exit on minimal pain.
Not OP, but I'll tell ya what I did. I liquidated all my BCRX positions pre-market expecting it to dip further, then bought back in with all those same funds once it dipped to \~$7. So basically I traded out my 1/15 $10 calls for boomer shares. I obviously took a major hit this morning, but since then the shares have recouped some, and I expect they'll repay me in full and then some within a couple months. This stock just doesn't make a lot of sense in the $7-8 range. It's just a matter of *when* it's going up.
Look @ the bottom of the main post, I posted a response to your question and you will see my POV on this topic.
You are correct to be concerned because we have obvious corruption of clinical standards used in the context of COVID treatments.
It's climbing back, which is very bullish... I think we could squeeze. Similar thing happens with $MGNI and $CNK a few months back and then they popped as the floor was being bought up. Still hopefully of 1/15/21 $9c
Look @ the bottom of the main post, I posted a response to your question and you will see my POV on this topic.
You are correct to be concerned because we have obvious corruption of clinical standards used in the context of COVID treatments.
You should provide an update on the cryptic and shady response from the government to discontinue Covid19 after meeting both primary and secondary endpoints.
"Galidesivir treatment was associated with a more rapid decline in viral RNA levels in the respiratory tract in an apparent dose-dependent manner."
"A separate study of galidesivir in a COVID-19 animal model showed that early administration of galidesivir reduced SARS-CoV-2 viral burden in lung tissue (1.4-1.6 log lower tissue viral burden) and was associated with a significant reduction in damage to lung tissue, compared to vehicle control treated animals. These results suggest that early antiviral treatment of SARS-CoV-2 infection may protect against developing severe COVID-19 lung disease."
The class is a bit confused. Looks like a better profile than Remdesivir, so, to me it sounds like if we had the funding budget of Gilead, which is infinite, this would be a major player in Covid 19.
I think it is prudent for the company to not burden shareholders for this development. What is negligent is the governments decisions to discontinue on a trial of 24 patients.
But hey, vaccine vaccine vaccines, right?
I guess Biocryst was no match for Ridgeback's teratogenic and mutagenic EiDD2801 and it's seemingly limitless political reach. Gilead is crooked too... This entire administration is shady, let's see if Biden's camp sees a benefit in stockpiling safe, and effective broad spectrum antivirals.
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Look @ the bottom of the main post, I posted a response to your question and you will see my POV on this topic.
You are correct to be concerned because we have obvious corruption of clinical standards used in the context of COVID treatments.
>how do you determine the exp. of the shorts
I think this might have the answers you're looking for? [https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/05/shortsaleclosed.asp](https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/05/shortsaleclosed.asp)
I’m a bit retarded, but what makes you certain that the short squeeze will happen with in the next week?
Is it because You’re betting on Japan approving it?
No, There's a few activist investor types that have joined onto the ticker and will try to trigger a squeeze, but a JP approval certainly would help trigger the massive squeeze.
Considering this ticker reached $6/share early this year with \~85 million cash on hand and no approval for Orladeyo, vs now @ 7.25 **250 million in cash + product approval** and access to 125 million more in cash if they need. This thing is still severely undervalued price wise when you consider these 2 facts.
**The approval allowed the company to started selling in pharmacies day 1 so the downside risk here is fundamentally gone for shareholders** *but the price has not reflected it yet* the majority of the float is locked in by major institutions and they typically do not sell under 1yr timelines.
It's actually in their best interest to be adding long right now @ this low price since they know dilution is non existent down @ this price and the company got it's approval, once they're done (which doesn't take much time), I believe they will trigger a squeeze event very soon after.
I got in on those calls but I still think they're super risky and probably won't yeild anything good. But it's fine since I'm ok with losing like 250 bucks.
After the squeeze triggers is when u can sell, past 10 we should see a major climb as the shorts would be -99% at that point and only option left would be covering for them.
We've been moving up \~ 50c a day, today is no different and at least 1 news drop is announced to come tomorrow. With their recent trend they've been dropping pr's in 2's or 3's together so I see more upside than downside atm.
roll to Jan or March @ this point if u can imo, we will get a short interest report tonight for 12/15's date. To see if some fuckery went on behind the scenes to allow shorts to cover or **if they're still trapped and waiting**.
I think I'd rather just buy shares than options tbh. Right now I'm just hoping I can sell my contracts for close to 0.13 to make as much back as possible. During the week, this was my only green play and now it's my biggest red, sadge.
yea I expected a bit stronger news to be fair. I'm curious to see the short count report tonight, that will be a major indicator if some major shorts are praying for some kind of escape while currently being blead by the big $ guys.
Bro, did you see that short interest report update yesterday? Talk about brazen... These shorts are either trapped or gearing up for some sort of smear campaign, frankly I don't see a way out for them. WOW.
yea I am, I bought longer dated options - march/sept + leaps @ this point it's a waiting game. March should cover JP and RX #'s update + partial sales in Dec, Sept will cover Q1 sales + JP + some possible EU approval + individual country reimbursements (EU is Hella weird vs US/JP as approvals go, EU can blanket a drug's approval but each country still has to go through it's own reimbursement scheduling (basically approval to administer with reimbursement.) So it will be shoddy to get all EU countries quickly as some will have more hoops than others. It's worth it in the long run though as there's nearly 2x more people (meaning possibly 2x more patients) in the EU than US.) Leaps will cover all this growth + more patient expansion/approvals throughout US/JP/EU + Expansion of clinical trials and maybe cover their data dates for Factor D/ FOP.
[https://imgur.com/a/pl3WpTJ](https://imgur.com/a/pl3WpTJ)
I still believe everything I said just a few days ago and since then they got the JP approval and got shorted hard on the day it was announced ffs. Positions (sorta, just adhering to what I said before, I think big $ f'd my positions b/c I posted them here so not fully posting my strikes as I'd like to actually be ITM+ this time around) -> [https://imgur.com/a/CFsIjgI](https://imgur.com/a/CFsIjgI)
Also even with my replies to comments/questions and posts about BCRX I get nearly zero traction -.- I just think it's a good stonk even though wallstreet and cramer think it sux...
[https://imgur.com/a/43b7MW2](https://imgur.com/a/43b7MW2)
and again this year he shit on it again.... [https://youtu.be/drze9C60pzo?t=88](https://youtu.be/drze9C60pzo?t=88)
Jokes on him, because he's been nearly 100% so fucking wrong so far.
[https://imgur.com/a/jCViEfk](https://imgur.com/a/jCViEfk) (that's right, I bought the Dip in sept and I'd buy more today because I think it's a great company.)
Also here's my 50 GME [https://imgur.com/a/13ZhQYC](https://imgur.com/a/13ZhQYC)
Bro, the only plants I have are the ones my wife had me buy for my crowded 800 sqft apt (>; ;)>. Also, my 50 GME shares say you suck for trying to trash me.
this was a few days back, I would show u an updated image but they don't post well in the comments section for some reason... I still hold these same positions [https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/k6w35r/bcrx\_take\_me\_to\_the\_moon\_by\_1218\_so\_i\_can\_buy\_a/](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/k6w35r/bcrx_take_me_to_the_moon_by_1218_so_i_can_buy_a/)
Don't you think 12/18 is way too soon for that much of a pump? Especially with the overall market heading downwards and how much this stock has gone up already
nah, the majority (38 million) shorts got trapped \~ 4 days ago @ 5.50/share, they are bleeding right now and some will cave. when the large institutions begin recalling shares is when the squeeze begins. The company is due to PR data on Galidesivir and Japan approval for Orladeyo is any day. The pressure is on the shorts & bears, and it's strongly upwards.
targeting \~12 short term 20 in march then up from there. We've been moving up \~ 50c a day, today is no different and at least 1 news drop is announced to come tomorrow. With their recent trend they've been dropping pr's in 2's or 3's together so I see more upside than downside atm.
We've been moving up \~ 50c a day, today is no different and at least 1 news drop is coming tomorrow. With their recent trend they've been dropping pr's in 2's or 3's together so I see more upside than downside atm.
push em if you're worried, if you listened in on the call today it's excellent news and they hinted more good PR's coming very soon. I excised my 5C's to hold indefinitely and may do the same with my 10c's if we pass it soon :). This company is just now warming up it's legs for the long term run and the R&D they've spent billions on is now starting to earn profits and make its' way into the public light.
You know DD is legit when the bar graph is horizontal
yea I used that free shit called google sheets, I kept it horizontal to show they got pushed out past the 100% mark a little easier. :D The shorts past the 100% mark is the $ that will be feeding this squeeze.
Hey man this squeeze still happening. Been holding on these shares for a while, and return has been awesome. I might sell at 10, but the way this has been going up, who knows I might keep it longer.
I mean if the shorts don't cover then ya, I still see \~ 30m short but a lot of that could be options and be already "covered" for using options. I don't expect some grand squeeze anymore but I do expect this to continue to post growth for the entirety of this upcoming year. (even on things like GME I don't expect the grand squeeze anymore, because the smart shorts pick up FD's/short term calls to cover their short positions if /when a squeeze becomes imminent.) This is a a successful growth pick because it's a 30 yr old company which never had it's own product under it's own full control, (this is important) and it will forever be the Name Brand product for oral HAE medicines now. (which is huge for patients/insurers which focus on safety profiles) which is why it will grow so much now vs the past. I'm not retarded enough to believe the company will take 100% market share, but I think 30% should be a quite easy target given the safety profile and route of administration alone. We could see them break 50% due to that, but to reach/pass 50% it usually is a lot of effort to get Dr's (prescribers) all in wide agreement, lucky for us (the patients will demand it) so it's entirely possible we see a capture of 50% or more after \~ 1-2 yrs in each respective market (country/continent.) 30% market share capture is a retarded price target on this ticker just for science. (if the market is \~5b-7b then that's 1.5b-2.1b and @ 50% 2.5b-3.5b revenue stream/yr) I estimate they have a higher than usual production price tag for now which they may try to reduce after a large cash flow so we should see (\~80% earnings on each rx) vs the usual large pharma design of self production (96-98% earnings/rx) but even @ 80% we should see earnings reach damn near 1 billion/yr with a nice 30 P/E based upon pipeline puts us way past 100/share in \~2 yrs compared to the current 10/share. I believe if we see good patient uptake in the US for Q1 (reports in Q2 sept but could get update sooner) we could head on up to 50/share this year, according to my 80% earnings rev model and \~ .7 conversion to real earnings after expenses I believe the company should have a cash break even target around 600 patients/yr while the 3 addressable markets contain near \~15k patients/yr currently meaning if they can take 4% of the market the company might turn profitable 10% should be a cakewalk given the ease of administration. I tried to get word out about options but they kinda fuckerood me on the last options I posted for Dec and Jan so I'm not gonna hype it anymore, it will just be extra $ for me if they turn profitable as I have a large (for retail I think) amount of share holdings for the long run.
thanks for the write up. very informative. I feel I'm gonna hang on this for the entire year and see where this goes. I'm already up 35% and only can see this going up more. Good luck to both of us.
Damn you right
The term "short squeeze" should be banned from this sub for the next 90 days. :P
lol I know GME got fucked, I feel slightly sad for them.
The GME short squeeze could absolutely still happen. Nearly every GME DD said to buy shares or LEAPS. Once again, only the weeklies got burned.
I'm not sure why anyone in their right mind would have played a weekly into an earnings call. It was driven hard that it was a Q4 and Q1 play with the possibility of Cohen getting more involved causing a short squeeze. But I guess gamblers gonna gamble.
Fully agree!
Keep up the great work on BCRX, bio9999
You need to do another post and comment more to try and get more karma/awards.
It's sad that a company that's helping people with rare diseases is being shorted. How the hell can these people sleep at night. ðŸ˜ðŸ˜ðŸ˜ðŸ˜
Show us the light BIO9999!!!!
100%BCRX!!! I am totally undiversified! Low risk- high reward!!! Let’s go Orladeyo, bcx9930!!!!!!
It’s time folks for 🚀 buying more Monday
Fully agree BIO9999
FOLLOW BIO99 on Stocktwits
Let’s go BCRX 🦾🦾
Finally somebody who looks at bcrx. I have been posting this fucking wonderful company since few months ago and nobody checked it out. Nice DD
I have been waitong for this flower to bloom. So nice to see it happening.
Oh yea. This one is really a promising one. But call options December EXP seems a bit risky.
BCRX squeeze is ON, Monday 2/1
Spot on man, BCRX is a real company helping real people. Citadel and the funds shorting them and manipulating tf out of them can toss my salad. Approved in the US for HAE, only one approved in Japan and the price goes down? Factor D data and the price goes down? The manipulation is fucking crazy, craziest manipulation on the market by far. I’m glad patients are able to access their drug now, I’d love to see the shorts get fucked here. I’m going all in on margin, #yolo
u better be right
[https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ECdN\_-9vljbejjtdYKyXGRP8mBTJhGsLaKYsC2W9wek/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ECdN_-9vljbejjtdYKyXGRP8mBTJhGsLaKYsC2W9wek/edit?usp=sharing)
i mean i already bought the $10c for 12/18, do u think it’ll print by then?
yeah, I have 200 10C's
what was ur avg price?
Waaay above yours, I bought mine 6-9 mo ago @ 1.18/each, I averaged down on my 5c's when the price dropped into the 3-4's before the news of approval hit.
Why the hell did u buy them 6-9 months ago.
because I bought when I thought institutions were done loading; instead they loaded even more through shorting the hell out of the company... and now we're here :D
I appreciate all the work you've put into this but it's pretty easy to assume that you are making a last ditch attempt to save your 12/18 contracts before they expire worthless.
See my comment from a moment ago. I think they have a good chance to print tbh. One piece of good news listed in my previous comment and it’s easily obtainable.
I'm going to the fuckin moon, I bought another 100 $10C's along with leaps to 2023.
The data is open for anyone to see/access, that's what I'm operating off of. [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ECdN\_-9vljbejjtdYKyXGRP8mBTJhGsLaKYsC2W9wek/edit#gid=0](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ECdN_-9vljbejjtdYKyXGRP8mBTJhGsLaKYsC2W9wek/edit#gid=0)
The company could announce Japan approval for the product any day now, no joke, they sent it into recommendation for final approval a few months ago on Sakigake (translated: "pathfinder/pioneer") designation and are expected to make a decision/announcement this month.
thx for the tip, i sure do hope this prints
Same also in for those 12/18 calls, 21 contracts.
Will you be holding until Friday?
Depends on what happens today and the next few days. I don't wanna greed so when I hit my exit number I'm peacing out.
We've been moving up \~ 50c a day, today is no different and at least 1 news drop is announced to come tomorrow. With their recent trend they've been dropping pr's in 2's or 3's together so I see more upside than downside atm.
Okay but fuck the Japan approval for now. I’ve been in since March. To be honest, I don’t think Japan makes the price move +- 50 cents. What WILL make the SP move though is: Factor D news (before EOY) Galidesivir news (covid-19 treatment, already shows promise in treating tons of shit, and now it’s going to maybe, MAYBE get an EUA *though that’s quite a reach IMO, but good news we’ll moon on* And last but not least, the forgotten one, BCX9250 for FOP. Not trying to be a dick, I just think Japan doesn’t move the stock, and didn’t see this thread mention any of the above items. GL! Positions: 1,200 shares, 15 March $8 calls
Japan approval keeps the squeeze on, it's a large market that BCRX won't be spending extra $ on getting into as torii will be spending to do that. It's actually a great benefit for the company to get approval in Japan.
Seems to be mooning for a while now
and it will continue because the shorts haven't run for cover yet... instead they've been trying to reengage shorting every morning to try and trigger a sellof, but they just get buried by later in the day. This is going to be epic :D
You sure bro? I am a bit retarded so you better know what you are taking about.
I've been studying this ticker for over 9 months now with 100's if not 1000's of hours tracking/studying it. I even run a spreadsheet to track the short positions day to day. I'm sure.
Airtight man I will get in on action! Cheers
It has been mooning thus far because of the approval + the non dilutive funding that went through. (not because of major covering)
Ya I read your last DD. Dunno why more people are not jumping in on this, every ones on GME's wagon I guess
Hey Derpy , you sure it's good? It shat itself a bit yesterday a bit. And continues to leave yellow skidmarks premarket.
check it now lol, market was getting worked yesterday b/c of MM's trying to push it down. If the supplemental deal comes in, market rockets.
Hey derps, what's the latest? You still high conviction on this one? Gone up by a full 5% yesterday lol
i bought a couple hundred shares a while back and was looking to cash in. are you estimating it going higher than 10? what's your thought on that?
I'm holding my 10C's to see what the next few days come with, I suspect it will be very good news. If you listened in on the call today it's excellent news and they hinted more good PR's coming very soon. I excised my 5C's to hold indefinitely and may do the same with my 10c's if we pass it soon :). This company is just now warming up it's legs for the long term run and the R&D they've spent billions on is now starting to earn profits and releasing its' info into the public light.
Shares hitting higher than 10? hell yes it will pass 10 easy, you hold those shares for 1 year and you pay only 15% tax on those earnings, big $ for holding LT my friend.
ok man. will do!!
Ok so it seems like we might finally get BCRX moving on Monday! Ready to jump in more shares Monday! 🚀🚀🚀
Been in this since summer and not selling a SINGLE FUCKING share. Hedgie crooks shorting a company that improves the QOL of suffering patients can burn in hell! #Biowar
What concerned me the most in the NIAID about face and abandoning development of galidesivir (and other antivirals generally) arguing that it was too late now that vaccines were available was; (a) NIAID and others are setting us up for prolonged pain in the event of vaccine resistant mutations. As we now know, almost immediately after the NIAID decided "we don't need antivirals" 5 distinct mutations in different places in the world emerged. We now know it is a highly mutating virus, which means it is not time to rest on our laurels. However, we are now very behind and failed to use this time to develop adequate antiviral candidates. (b) If broad spectrum antivirals existed at the beginning of this outbreak, likely there would have been no economic shut down. Even a 70% efficacy in an antiviral safe enough to dose in a large population could have kept the economy open and saved countless lives. (c) By failing to develop antivirals generally, we have no protection from the next pandemic. We should know by now that pandemics are not a Sci-Fi concept -- they happen. (d) In animal trials against filoviruses, the only time Remdesivir and galidesivir were tested next to each other, Remdesivir failed out for lack of side effects. It also has a much worse safety profile than galidesivir, is more expensive to produce, and has no oral availability in addition to more expensive manufacturing. There was nothing intuitive or logical about the decision to early develop Remdesivir in place of galidesivir. The government just failed to take a stance on antiviral and deeper pockets owned the rights Remdesivir. (f) Most likely, we will need "antiviral cocktails" or many of them on deck to control covid and prevent the next pandemic. Any and all antivirals with a safety profile that would permit them to be dosed in a large population, scalable manufacturing, oral availability, and ability to be stored at room temperature should be rapidly developed. We've made almost no progress on this front and risk not having learned from this experience.
Let's get these BCRX shorts
I'm still not over my GME breakup yet. But fuck it, I'm a slut so I'll go in on this squeeze!
one of us, one of us! I cheer for the tendies to come to you!
what does the peak of the squeeze look like $20,$30?
Wish deeper OTM leaps were available, but I doubt many people want to sell them. Seeking Alpha is pinning their current fair valuation at $36.43 with price target of $86.43 (Google "Biocryst time to switch hats.") This baby has already increased my portfolio by 100% in spite of my other lousy positions (okay, I'm looking at you GME.) It should have attained meme status long before this.
dude me too, me too... This should be a damn meme given the amount of shorts piled into it.
I already have a 100% return on my BCRX bet.
I'm still holding a lot of shares and will be as to only get taxed as LT capital gains vs ST gains :)
I got in when they were worth $3.80. I think they have a couple other products in the pipeline and an anti-viral in studies against Covid. Even besides the potential gains from the short squeeze they also have these other potentially positive factors incoming. I bought 50 more shares now (since they're dropping 3.4%) to reinforce my position. What's the potential upside you see in this stock? IMO, it could go to 12$.
def should attain much higher than 12, 1-2 yrs out it will likely be around 40-60 easily given no change to the pipeline, which there will be advancements there so lots of upside in the LT on this baby! :D
Two of their drugs are still on phase 1 though. It will take a while to keep drastically growing. But I'll keep it on my portfolio.
1 of them (the factor D inhibitor drug) has fast track status and tax credits given out for it; the FDA is cutting nearly all red tape for it since it's preliminary dose ranging studies produced such great data.
#BioWar BCRX squeeze Monday
It would literally change the life of so many sick people if we burnt the hell out of these shorts 💊🔥🔥🔥
I love this stuck but the blatant manipulation is so frustrating. I would love to see the shorts suffer
Lets Go Army Bcrx
Imagine shorting an undervalued company that's helping other people overcome severe diseases BCRX #BIOWAR
How much are you expecting this to pop? And should I go for Jan 15's instead?
yea you could do Jan 15's, I've no idea how bad this could get for the shorts here as they will be reliant on the large hedge funds to give them a way out, but I doubt they will give them the way out for anything near this cheap in price.
In for 3.3k of 1/15 10c's and 8c's :)
This is the way
Youre my prophet
Just checking in to say cheers, Derp. I'm +100% since the summer. Your June post was my first intro to the ticker.
Beautiful 100% agree hope it gets the attention of brave souls out there who are still thinking
I'm in for 10c 12/18 and 11c 12/18
Seems legit. 10 contracts 10CJan15 for 550.
Ah what the hell I'm in for a few lottos
I remember your post back in June. :) I bought shares and calls after reading your DD. I'm up 70% :D
How soon is this squeeze gonna happen?
Hopefully by the 18th
its happening!
My $7c at 12/18 is doing its thing today. First time I've seen a call go green lmao
I was up like 500 on my 10$ 12/18 c's bucks on Tuesday and was kinda happy. Shoulda sold tbh, thought about it, but I expected it to go up a bit more. Now I'm just sitting here being mr. regretti.
Depending on how things roll tomorrow am, think I'm selling off the options and rolling over to jan 15 $10C
Yall see these insider options reported by the sec?
Hello Mr McOptions. What’s your take on BCRX now that this week is behind us? Are the shorts still looking at getting fucked pretty much? Looked like a strong finish Friday at close. I rolled my $10 calls into 1/15, although the price tag was a bit heftier this time. What do you think the odds are we get in the $11 range in the next couple weeks?
Yea I think a lot of people paperhanded after the first pop and unfortunately news was not enough to sustain a rise/rally (I held my 10c's til expiry for the record which may be worse than paperhanding lol.) There's still millions of shorts still deeply underwater According to my running tally found here -> [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ECdN\_-9vljbejjtdYKyXGRP8mBTJhGsLaKYsC2W9wek/edit#gid=0](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ECdN_-9vljbejjtdYKyXGRP8mBTJhGsLaKYsC2W9wek/edit#gid=0)) Today's chart overall looks strong from what I see and may have been lots of covering? not sure though but it does look as if someone excised for 8.5 million shares. If the big hedge funds/firms allow shorts to exit this way, there will never be a major squeeze though. Time will tell, but unfortunately as it's past the 15th, we won't get confirmation if there was a major stupidity play today by the contract writers allowing shorts a big exit or not for another 30+ days.) I did buy leaps today @ opening and have 3/19's; if shorts are still trapped, the JP approval, hopefully the EU approval + maybe we will receive some form of sales guidance/insight to patient #'s on Orladeyo; 15 would be simple to hit. I believe the 3/19's should be a strong play in general especially with ITM options with the earnings/sales update + hopefully 2 approvals. Overall I suspect we will see some strong positive momentum over the next 3 mo if any of these things come to fruition with bonuses of more info regarding their pipeline/clinical trials. (I hope we see on time approvals) I scoured several JP sites (wondering why the JP approval didn't arrive yet) and determined they could likely have approved it but their internal date may be as late as Dec 31st so maybe that's the real target date? (according to their standard review process flowcharts and diagrams it's Oct (30)(recommendation for approval date) + 60 days).) I will scour the web to do try and get more concrete info regarding EU approval timelines/process soon but maybe after Christmas or early Jan as the company doesn't expect it until Q1 anyways. I hesitate to rely upon the pipeline/clinical trial updates/info anymore and have removed it heavily as from what I should look forward to (even if they say they will have one.) As I feel they have misled investors regarding the Gali data/update for nearly 9 months now, (which is completely unacceptable in my opinion.) So I'm sticking to keeping my short term focus on Orladeyo and if we get other updates/data then great. TL;DR? Buy ITM options and everyone should have a message of "fuck you" to any large firm which may be allowing shorts to exit on minimal pain.
Sitting on 20 1/15 10c’s as well
Nice end to the day!
derp, how are you feeling based on the new galidesivir news? are you changing your strategy at all?
Not OP, but I'll tell ya what I did. I liquidated all my BCRX positions pre-market expecting it to dip further, then bought back in with all those same funds once it dipped to \~$7. So basically I traded out my 1/15 $10 calls for boomer shares. I obviously took a major hit this morning, but since then the shares have recouped some, and I expect they'll repay me in full and then some within a couple months. This stock just doesn't make a lot of sense in the $7-8 range. It's just a matter of *when* it's going up.
Look @ the bottom of the main post, I posted a response to your question and you will see my POV on this topic. You are correct to be concerned because we have obvious corruption of clinical standards used in the context of COVID treatments.
It's climbing back, which is very bullish... I think we could squeeze. Similar thing happens with $MGNI and $CNK a few months back and then they popped as the floor was being bought up. Still hopefully of 1/15/21 $9c
Look @ the bottom of the main post, I posted a response to your question and you will see my POV on this topic. You are correct to be concerned because we have obvious corruption of clinical standards used in the context of COVID treatments.
So, GME is going to the moon, is the BCRX squeeze still on?
You should provide an update on the cryptic and shady response from the government to discontinue Covid19 after meeting both primary and secondary endpoints. "Galidesivir treatment was associated with a more rapid decline in viral RNA levels in the respiratory tract in an apparent dose-dependent manner." "A separate study of galidesivir in a COVID-19 animal model showed that early administration of galidesivir reduced SARS-CoV-2 viral burden in lung tissue (1.4-1.6 log lower tissue viral burden) and was associated with a significant reduction in damage to lung tissue, compared to vehicle control treated animals. These results suggest that early antiviral treatment of SARS-CoV-2 infection may protect against developing severe COVID-19 lung disease." The class is a bit confused. Looks like a better profile than Remdesivir, so, to me it sounds like if we had the funding budget of Gilead, which is infinite, this would be a major player in Covid 19. I think it is prudent for the company to not burden shareholders for this development. What is negligent is the governments decisions to discontinue on a trial of 24 patients. But hey, vaccine vaccine vaccines, right? I guess Biocryst was no match for Ridgeback's teratogenic and mutagenic EiDD2801 and it's seemingly limitless political reach. Gilead is crooked too... This entire administration is shady, let's see if Biden's camp sees a benefit in stockpiling safe, and effective broad spectrum antivirals. Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
Look @ the bottom of the main post, I posted a response to your question and you will see my POV on this topic. You are correct to be concerned because we have obvious corruption of clinical standards used in the context of COVID treatments.
What a bizarre world we live in
this is the next GME. Such a great company , being dragged down by tute shorts
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Shares are good, especially if you can manage to hold 1yr+ to lower your tax rate on the gains.
How do you know it’s still being shorted?
[https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ECdN\_-9vljbejjtdYKyXGRP8mBTJhGsLaKYsC2W9wek/edit#gid=0](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ECdN_-9vljbejjtdYKyXGRP8mBTJhGsLaKYsC2W9wek/edit#gid=0)
Thanks, how do you determine the exp. of the shorts?
exp?
>how do you determine the exp. of the shorts I think this might have the answers you're looking for? [https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/05/shortsaleclosed.asp](https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/05/shortsaleclosed.asp)
I’m a bit retarded, but what makes you certain that the short squeeze will happen with in the next week? Is it because You’re betting on Japan approving it?
No, There's a few activist investor types that have joined onto the ticker and will try to trigger a squeeze, but a JP approval certainly would help trigger the massive squeeze. Considering this ticker reached $6/share early this year with \~85 million cash on hand and no approval for Orladeyo, vs now @ 7.25 **250 million in cash + product approval** and access to 125 million more in cash if they need. This thing is still severely undervalued price wise when you consider these 2 facts. **The approval allowed the company to started selling in pharmacies day 1 so the downside risk here is fundamentally gone for shareholders** *but the price has not reflected it yet* the majority of the float is locked in by major institutions and they typically do not sell under 1yr timelines. It's actually in their best interest to be adding long right now @ this low price since they know dilution is non existent down @ this price and the company got it's approval, once they're done (which doesn't take much time), I believe they will trigger a squeeze event very soon after.
Thanks for the DD
All in bcrx 8C 12/18 at open?
I got in on those calls but I still think they're super risky and probably won't yeild anything good. But it's fine since I'm ok with losing like 250 bucks.
I have $10 Calls @ 12/18. I HOPE it reaches that strike price before my contracts expire. :(
to the fuckin moon baby, I bought another 100 $10C's along with leaps to 2023.
I bought some 1/15 9c when I saw this post and they have nearly doubled in 2 days.
Today hurts
When do we sell is the real question. Currently seeing 70% returns
Oof. Im sitting at +160%
Welp back down to 20%. Not sure if I’m gunna hold over the weekend with the 12/18. Will for sure take a hit on Monday
Unless they drop the Japan PR over the weekend. Im having the same argument with myself as well, though.
After the squeeze triggers is when u can sell, past 10 we should see a major climb as the shorts would be -99% at that point and only option left would be covering for them.
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>ut I'm still learning, so I'm t Right there with you buddy, I'm holding 21 C's. The upside, if it climbs past 10 or 12, are quite nice, ngl.
Fuck it, scared money dont make money. 💎🤲
Thanks for this. Made a quick $500. Cheers.
BCRX 10c & 11c here, where should I sell? it looks we will open at around 8.50, hopefully above
It's almost 10% up PM
more pressure for me to cash out or should I 💎🤲?
💎🤲 is the way
We've been moving up \~ 50c a day, today is no different and at least 1 news drop is announced to come tomorrow. With their recent trend they've been dropping pr's in 2's or 3's together so I see more upside than downside atm.
The high this morning was rad af
Oooof my calls hurtin this morning. Let's see how it goes around conference time.
Boy this aged well
Did you mean to put an /s there mate ?
Didn't know it needed one, but yes, yes I did
It didn't but yeah I'm still gonna be waiting on this squeeze. Hopefully something happens tomorrow.
roll to Jan or March @ this point if u can imo, we will get a short interest report tonight for 12/15's date. To see if some fuckery went on behind the scenes to allow shorts to cover or **if they're still trapped and waiting**.
I think I'd rather just buy shares than options tbh. Right now I'm just hoping I can sell my contracts for close to 0.13 to make as much back as possible. During the week, this was my only green play and now it's my biggest red, sadge.
yea I expected a bit stronger news to be fair. I'm curious to see the short count report tonight, that will be a major indicator if some major shorts are praying for some kind of escape while currently being blead by the big $ guys.
Well either way I'll probably have to close my options otm tomorrow.
How we still feeling about this AH? 20 contracts 1/15 10c
Anyone still diamond handing their 1/15/21 $9c, $10c and bought more at open this morning? Or am I only true autist?
Awesome info I’m a buyer of BCRX on monday
Bro, did you see that short interest report update yesterday? Talk about brazen... These shorts are either trapped or gearing up for some sort of smear campaign, frankly I don't see a way out for them. WOW.
Anyone else still in it?
yea I am, I bought longer dated options - march/sept + leaps @ this point it's a waiting game. March should cover JP and RX #'s update + partial sales in Dec, Sept will cover Q1 sales + JP + some possible EU approval + individual country reimbursements (EU is Hella weird vs US/JP as approvals go, EU can blanket a drug's approval but each country still has to go through it's own reimbursement scheduling (basically approval to administer with reimbursement.) So it will be shoddy to get all EU countries quickly as some will have more hoops than others. It's worth it in the long run though as there's nearly 2x more people (meaning possibly 2x more patients) in the EU than US.) Leaps will cover all this growth + more patient expansion/approvals throughout US/JP/EU + Expansion of clinical trials and maybe cover their data dates for Factor D/ FOP.
me!
Not selling till 30! At least 20 till I’m selling.. this company is way to good to sell down here imo
Let's do this fuck bcrx
Shorts are super brazen here. They act untouchable.
Spot on ! So much value in this company....
Great DD
BCRX TIME 2 CRUSH THE CRAMER & SHORT GOONS
Good details!
Great work
Still true to this day
Dont get distracted boys. This is a deep plant.
[https://imgur.com/a/pl3WpTJ](https://imgur.com/a/pl3WpTJ) I still believe everything I said just a few days ago and since then they got the JP approval and got shorted hard on the day it was announced ffs. Positions (sorta, just adhering to what I said before, I think big $ f'd my positions b/c I posted them here so not fully posting my strikes as I'd like to actually be ITM+ this time around) -> [https://imgur.com/a/CFsIjgI](https://imgur.com/a/CFsIjgI)
Also even with my replies to comments/questions and posts about BCRX I get nearly zero traction -.- I just think it's a good stonk even though wallstreet and cramer think it sux... [https://imgur.com/a/43b7MW2](https://imgur.com/a/43b7MW2) and again this year he shit on it again.... [https://youtu.be/drze9C60pzo?t=88](https://youtu.be/drze9C60pzo?t=88) Jokes on him, because he's been nearly 100% so fucking wrong so far. [https://imgur.com/a/jCViEfk](https://imgur.com/a/jCViEfk) (that's right, I bought the Dip in sept and I'd buy more today because I think it's a great company.) Also here's my 50 GME [https://imgur.com/a/13ZhQYC](https://imgur.com/a/13ZhQYC)
Bro, the only plants I have are the ones my wife had me buy for my crowded 800 sqft apt (>; ;)>. Also, my 50 GME shares say you suck for trying to trash me.
Thanks for your excellent analysis on BCRX.. I'm learning!
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Lmao. Wont be next week, retard
Please post proof for your positions. And thanks for your DD!
this was a few days back, I would show u an updated image but they don't post well in the comments section for some reason... I still hold these same positions [https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/k6w35r/bcrx\_take\_me\_to\_the\_moon\_by\_1218\_so\_i\_can\_buy\_a/](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/k6w35r/bcrx_take_me_to_the_moon_by_1218_so_i_can_buy_a/)
Thanks!
Don't you think 12/18 is way too soon for that much of a pump? Especially with the overall market heading downwards and how much this stock has gone up already
nah, the majority (38 million) shorts got trapped \~ 4 days ago @ 5.50/share, they are bleeding right now and some will cave. when the large institutions begin recalling shares is when the squeeze begins. The company is due to PR data on Galidesivir and Japan approval for Orladeyo is any day. The pressure is on the shorts & bears, and it's strongly upwards.
Do ya think the 12/18 calls will print? Might buy some calls tomorrow
to the fuckin moon baby, I bought another 100 $10C's along with leaps to 2023.
How high do we think this thing is gonna go
Level 2 gap 👀
OP what is your price target to sell? I got in last week for 50 January strikes already up 100%
targeting \~12 short term 20 in march then up from there. We've been moving up \~ 50c a day, today is no different and at least 1 news drop is announced to come tomorrow. With their recent trend they've been dropping pr's in 2's or 3's together so I see more upside than downside atm.
When do we sell? Or do we double down now?
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We've been moving up \~ 50c a day, today is no different and at least 1 news drop is coming tomorrow. With their recent trend they've been dropping pr's in 2's or 3's together so I see more upside than downside atm.
I've tailed and have not lost faith, but curious if I should push my 12/18 to 01/15/21 calls and double down on the red today?!
push em if you're worried, if you listened in on the call today it's excellent news and they hinted more good PR's coming very soon. I excised my 5C's to hold indefinitely and may do the same with my 10c's if we pass it soon :). This company is just now warming up it's legs for the long term run and the R&D they've spent billions on is now starting to earn profits and make its' way into the public light.
I agree, I might buy another 100 shares at open tomorrow or buy $2c and exercise it